This year's draft is December 11 at the end of the Winter Meetings. The deadline for clubs to submit reserve rosters of protected players is midnight on November 20. Here are some of the rules governing the Rule 5 draft process (spoilered to save space):
With Mike Carp being DFAd, there are currently 37 players on the 40-man roster. Ryan Lavarnway will need to be activated soon from the 60-day DL to take one of those slots (sure, they could release or trade him, but for now let's just cover the bases for anyone who's currently an asset under contract). That leaves 33 players projected to be on the 40-man by season's end who are under club control for 2015:
Starters (8) - Buchholz, De La Rosa, Escobar, Kelly, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Wright
Relievers (6) - Britton, Hembree, Layne, Mujica, Tazawa, Wilson
Catchers (2) - Butler, Vazquez
Infielders (9) - Bogaerts, Cecchini, Herrera, Holt, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Ortiz, Pedroia
Outfielders (8) - Bradley Jr., Betts, Brentz, Cespedes, Craig, Hassan, Nava, Victorino
Looking ahead to the likely free agent or trade acquisitions in store for the club this winter (with rumored/reported re-signings in parentheses):
* Closer (Qualifying Offer to Uehara?)
* Set-up Reliever (Re-sign Miller?)
* Back-end Reliever
* Backup Catcher (Re-sign Ross?)
* Frontline Starter (Re-sign Lester?)
There are plenty of other possible acquisitions the team could consider that would take up a roster spot before November 20 (a #2 starter like Shields, a 3B if WMB sucks over the next 2 months and he isn't dealt until after the R5 draft, bringing back Badenhop for a year, etc.) Likewise they could make moves to free up additional slots (clearing the OF glut, trading Mujica if they think their internal options are more cost-effective, etc.) But let's hold off on those suppositions for now and stick with the moves listed above. Those would bring committed roster spots up to 38.
Now let's look at players likely to be deemed expendable from the 40-man:
* Lavarnway (out of options, DFA)
* Britton (out of options, DFA)
That drops it to 36. There are also players with future options remaining but who may be considered unworthy of 40-man slots due to performance, positional redundancy, or their slim likelihood of being selected in the draft:
* Alex Wilson, RHP
* Dan Butler, C
* Jonathan Herrera, IF
This would bring the roster down to 33 and provide for 7 vacancies.
So which current Red Sox prospects are Rule 5 eligible? Here are the most prominent:
[tablegrid=]Player POS Age DOB Signed R5 Eligible MLFA? Blake Swihart C 22 04/03/1992 08/15/2011 2014 Eduardo Rodriguez LHSP 21 04/07/1993 01/22/2010 2014 Matt Barnes RHSP 24 06/17/1990 08/15/2011 2014 Travis Shaw 1B 24 04/16/1990 06/13/2011 2014 Sean Coyle 2B 22 01/17/1992 08/16/2010 2014 Luis Diaz RHSP 22 04/09/1992 08/28/2008 2012 Noe Ramirez RHRP 24 12/22/1989 08/15/2011 2014 Henry Ramos OF 22 04/15/1992 06/20/2010 2014 Aaron Kurcz RHRP 23 08/08/1990 06/21/2010 2013 Derrik Gibson SS 24 12/05/1989 07/15/2008 2012 Y John Ely RHRP 28 05/13/1986 07/01/2007 2010 Y Jonathan Aro RHRP 23 10/10/1990 06/06/2011 2014 Michael Almanzar 3B 23 12/02/1990 07/02/2007 2011 Y Robby Scott LHRP 24 08/29/1989 08/09/2011 2014 Ryan Verdugo LHSP 27 04/10/1987 07/01/2008 2011 Y Miguel Celestino RHRP 24 10/10/1989 12/14/2006 2011 Y Keith Couch RHRP 24 11/05/1989 06/14/2010 2013 Chris Hernandez LHRP 25 12/14/1988 08/16/2010 2013 Keury De La Cruz OF 22 11/25/1991 02/06/2009 2013 Dan Butler C 27 10/17/1986 07/27/2009 2012 Alex Wilson RHRP 27 11/03/1986 06/15/2009 2012 Jonathan Herrera IF 29 11/03/1984 04/06/2002 2006 Y Ryan Lavarnway C 26 08/07/1987 06/27/2008 2011 Y Drake Britton LHSP 25 05/22/1989 08/15/2007 2011 Y [/tablegrid]
* Players in red would be my top 6 choices for the 7 projected spots in order of preference.
* Players in blue are all candidates who've earned some measure of consideration for the last spot, again in order of my personal preference. Those at the bottom of that grouping are there for only the sake of inclusiveness, but guys like Hernandez and KDLC don't seriously belong in the discussion.
* Players in green are those who would be removed from the 40-man in advance of the reserve rosters deadline. The rest are listed in reverse order of signing date, most recent additions first.
* A "Y" in the MLFA column means the player can elect minor league free agency if he's not added to the 40-man.
So what are everyone's thoughts on which kids (or even older guys) the club should seek to hold onto this winter?
WHAT IS THE RULE 5 DRAFT?
WHAT ARE THESE "PHASES" YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT?
WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR THE RULE 5 DRAFT?
HOW MUCH DOES A TEAM PAY TO DRAFT A PLAYER?
ARE THERE RESTRICTIONS ON WHAT TEAMS CAN DO BETWEEN THE RESERVE ROSTER DEADLINE (usually November 20) AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT?
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE MAJOR LEAGUE PHASE?
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE AAA OR AA PHASE?
It's a system designed to prevent teams from hoarding talent, especially players who may be ready to perform at the major league level. It was put in place as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players' union to ensure deserving players rightfully gain opportunities to further their careers and wages, and to help ensure competitive balance and depth between teams.
A team cannot draft an eligible player unless there is a corresponding vacancy on its reserve roster. So if they enter the Rule 5 draft with a full 40-man roster, they can't make any selections during the Major League phase of the draft.
There is no limit on the number of eligible players a club can lose through the Rule 5 draft.
WHAT ARE THESE "PHASES" YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT?
While the process is most commonly associated with a club's 40-man roster (the "Major League" phase), teams must also protect players at its two highest minor league levels (AAA and AA) as part of the "Minor League" phase, which are conducted at the conclusion of the Major League phases. Teams may protect up to 38 players on their AAA reserve roster, and up to 37 players on their AA reserve roster.
In the AAA phase, teams may select any eligible player not selected during the Major League phase, as well as any player left off the 38-man AAA reserve roster. In the AA phase, teams may select any eligible player not selected during the Major League or AAA phases, as well as any player left off the 37-man AA reserve roster.
Theoretically, a AAA selection does not rank among his organization’s top 78 eligibles. Likewise, a AA selection does not rank among its top 115 eligibles.
WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR THE RULE 5 DRAFT?
* Players NOT on one of the three reserve rosters and:
A) were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
OR
B) were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
NOTE: For players who were signed AFTER the conclusion of their team's season but BEFORE that year's Rule 5 draft, you begin counting with the FOLLOWING YEAR'S Rule 5 draft.
* A player on the Voluntarily Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is NOT eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
* A player on the Restricted List or the Military List is eligible.
* A minor league player/manager meeting the above criteria is eligible, but if picked he has 30 days to reject the selection.
HOW MUCH DOES A TEAM PAY TO DRAFT A PLAYER?
In the Major League phase a fee of $50,000 per player is paid to the club losing the player. For the AAA phase, each pick costs $12,000. For the AA phase, it's $4,000.
ARE THERE RESTRICTIONS ON WHAT TEAMS CAN DO BETWEEN THE RESERVE ROSTER DEADLINE (usually November 20) AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT?
* Eligible players cannot be moved between a club's various reserve rosters (from AA to AAA, for example).
* Eligible players cannot be traded until after the draft.
* A player on the 40-man roster cannot be sent outright to the minors on the two days prior to the Rule 5 Draft or on the day of the draft until it is concluded.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE MAJOR LEAGUE PHASE?
* The new club must tender him a major league contract by 5 pm on the day of the draft. The new club must keep him on their 25-man active roster or on the disabled list for the entirety of the following season.
* A player remains a Rule 5 player (and subject to being returned to the club that lost him) until he has spent AT LEAST 90 days on the selecting team's active roster (and NOT on the disabled list). Those 90 days may be spread across multiple seasons. Once those conditions are met, Rule 5 restrictions are removed (at the end of that season) and the player's contract is permanently assigned to the drafting club.
* If the conditions are NOT met, or if the drafting team decides not to keep the player, he must be placed on Outright Assignment Waivers. Any of the other 28 MLB clubs (except the team he was drafted from) can claim the player for the $25,000 Rule 5 waiver price. Whatever team acquires the player assumes all Rule 5 obligations until the conditions are met.
* If the player goes unclaimed, he must be offered back to the team from which he was drafted. If the selecting team accepts the player, it will return half the acquisition fee ($25,000) to the drafting team. The team accepting the player gets him back on the same contract he had prior to being drafted. The drafting club is responsible for any portion of the player's salary above what the player was paid the previous season. In general, the team that lost the player has 72 hours to decide whether to accept him. However if the player is eligible to become an Article XX-D Free Agent (see below), the team has just 24 hours to make the decision and the player would then have 72 hours to decide whether to accept the minor league assignment or become a free agent.
>>> When outrighted to the minors, a player may elect free cgency under Article XX-D if he has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time, qualifies for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" player, and/or has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career.<<<
* If the player goes unclaimed AND the team that lost the player does NOT accept him back, then the drafting team retains his rights and can send him to the minors or release him. However the player cannot be released or sent to the minors any earlier than 20 days prior to MLB Opening Day, and then only if Outright Assignment Waivers have been secured.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN UNPROTECTED PLAYER IS DRAFTED BY ANOTHER TEAM DURING THE AAA OR AA PHASE?
The minor league phases are relatively free of restrictions. A player must be assigned to the reserve list for the affiliate at the level of the respective phase in which he was drafted. So a AAA phase player must be immediately placed on the AAA reserve roster of the selecting team, and a AA phase player must be placed on their AA reserve roster. This is basically part of the "must have vacancies to draft a player" rule.
And that's pretty much it. Once the minor league regular season begins that player can be assigned to any minor league affiliate in the system of the selecting team. He can also be traded, with the new club assuming all obligations. If demoted or released, the player doesn't have to be offered back to the club from which he was drafted, and doesn't have to be made available to any other organizations through a waiver process. If released, he simply becomes a free agent, and the team that selected him doesn't recover any part of its acquisition fee.
With Mike Carp being DFAd, there are currently 37 players on the 40-man roster. Ryan Lavarnway will need to be activated soon from the 60-day DL to take one of those slots (sure, they could release or trade him, but for now let's just cover the bases for anyone who's currently an asset under contract). That leaves 33 players projected to be on the 40-man by season's end who are under club control for 2015:
Starters (8) - Buchholz, De La Rosa, Escobar, Kelly, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Wright
Relievers (6) - Britton, Hembree, Layne, Mujica, Tazawa, Wilson
Catchers (2) - Butler, Vazquez
Infielders (9) - Bogaerts, Cecchini, Herrera, Holt, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Ortiz, Pedroia
Outfielders (8) - Bradley Jr., Betts, Brentz, Cespedes, Craig, Hassan, Nava, Victorino
Looking ahead to the likely free agent or trade acquisitions in store for the club this winter (with rumored/reported re-signings in parentheses):
* Closer (Qualifying Offer to Uehara?)
* Set-up Reliever (Re-sign Miller?)
* Back-end Reliever
* Backup Catcher (Re-sign Ross?)
* Frontline Starter (Re-sign Lester?)
There are plenty of other possible acquisitions the team could consider that would take up a roster spot before November 20 (a #2 starter like Shields, a 3B if WMB sucks over the next 2 months and he isn't dealt until after the R5 draft, bringing back Badenhop for a year, etc.) Likewise they could make moves to free up additional slots (clearing the OF glut, trading Mujica if they think their internal options are more cost-effective, etc.) But let's hold off on those suppositions for now and stick with the moves listed above. Those would bring committed roster spots up to 38.
Now let's look at players likely to be deemed expendable from the 40-man:
* Lavarnway (out of options, DFA)
* Britton (out of options, DFA)
That drops it to 36. There are also players with future options remaining but who may be considered unworthy of 40-man slots due to performance, positional redundancy, or their slim likelihood of being selected in the draft:
* Alex Wilson, RHP
* Dan Butler, C
* Jonathan Herrera, IF
This would bring the roster down to 33 and provide for 7 vacancies.
So which current Red Sox prospects are Rule 5 eligible? Here are the most prominent:
[tablegrid=]
* Players in red would be my top 6 choices for the 7 projected spots in order of preference.
* Players in blue are all candidates who've earned some measure of consideration for the last spot, again in order of my personal preference. Those at the bottom of that grouping are there for only the sake of inclusiveness, but guys like Hernandez and KDLC don't seriously belong in the discussion.
* Players in green are those who would be removed from the 40-man in advance of the reserve rosters deadline. The rest are listed in reverse order of signing date, most recent additions first.
* A "Y" in the MLFA column means the player can elect minor league free agency if he's not added to the 40-man.
So what are everyone's thoughts on which kids (or even older guys) the club should seek to hold onto this winter?