2015 Draft: Thoughts and Predictions
- Thread starter Leather
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Yes, there's a great article about this in the Globe today: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/04/29/plenty-value-for-patriots-late-first-round/2NcYeLnLOpgbMlYoCgU5yL/story.htmlBigJimEd said:
Of note:
1) The 1st Round pick comes with a 5th year of control but also additional guaranteed money -- pick #32 got $1.5 million more in guaranteed money than pick #33 last year.
2) A GM confirms the pressure to grab someone at #32 instead of letting teams reset their draft board overnight.
Jerry Thornton has the Pats picking:
Guard Laken Tomlinson out of Duke.
I get that some don't like Thornton on this board, but the guy has shown tremendous insight for Belichick's drafts. He predicted Easley last year and also nailed Hightower, Solder, and Darius Butler in previous years.
Guard Laken Tomlinson out of Duke.
I get that some don't like Thornton on this board, but the guy has shown tremendous insight for Belichick's drafts. He predicted Easley last year and also nailed Hightower, Solder, and Darius Butler in previous years.
He'd really get credit if he gets Tomlinson right since Belichick has never drafted an interior OL in the 1st round.BannedbyNYYFans.com said:
RedOctober3829 said:
Logan Mankins??? Or are you not including him because he played Tackle at Fresno State?
dynomite said:
I think the fifth year option might be slightly overrated because it's a lot more expensive than people think--for the picks at the end of the round it's about 1 year, $7 million, and while that's a great deal if you pick Muhammed Wilkerson that's a good chunk of change for a Hightower or Solder or Chandler Jones.
BannedbyNYYFans.com said:
I've heard people mention that Mankins wasn't a guard in college but if memory serves he was plugged in at LG on essentially the first day of practice and they kept him at guard even though you'd think they could have had him displace had Tom Ashworth at RT if they valued him on the outside.
Shelterdog said:
You're right - he was. He was projected as a Guard coming out of school. I remember Belichick saying that Pat Hill told him (and I'm assuming other coaches and scouts) that he would be an ideal LG on the next level.
I wonder if Mankins is a left-side-only guy. They played him at LT at times in 2012 and 2013 but as far as I know they never tried him on the right side at all. Some guys can flip sides easily, and some can't.Shelterdog said:
I'm pretty sure Mankins's versatility was something the Patriots looked at. Here's Belichick in 2013:
Read more at: http://nesn.com/2013/12/logan-mankins-says-he-will-try-to-do-what-matt-light-did-if-asked-to-play-left-tackle-again-on-sunday/
At 6'4", Mankins is a little short for a LT and probably always was going to fit better at LG - but I think his versatility was part of the Patriots making him a first-rounder, even if they only rarely utilized it.
So La-el Collins will not get to meet the police before the draft. What happens here? Have to think this hurts his stock quite a bit. Would you use 64 on him?
Belichick has never drafted a 1st round interior OL coming out of college. Yes, I am not including Mankins because he was a tackle at Fresno. If BB is taking an OL in the first round, it's going to be a tackle who can slide in and play guard.BannedbyNYYFans.com said:
Phragle said:
64? No way. I don't think he gets picked before the 4th/5th round, unless his situation somehow becomes clear before tomorrow.
He was probably being played, but Schefter said this morning that people were telling him that the guy may not be drafted period. And that's largely because of an anticipated second wave of news.Phragle said:
Then somebody chimed in -- it may have been Chris Carter -- "he is closer to the situation than is now being reported."
If this does not change between now and when the curtain comes down Saturday, I think you can pretty safely project he is off the Patriots' board.
If we assume for a second that La-el Collins is innocent and only connected here by coincidence and that it won't be wrapped up by tonight, then wouldn't he be better off going un-drafted vs. getting grabbed in the 6th or 7th round?
He could somewhat pick the spot he goes to and get to free agency quicker (I think?) after his name is cleared.
He could somewhat pick the spot he goes to and get to free agency quicker (I think?) after his name is cleared.
He now wants out of this draft and into the supplemental draft this summer:( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/30/lael-collins-wants-out-of-the-draft-into-the-supplemental-draft/
After AH, there is NFW anyone is going near this guy until he is fully cleared.
( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I think so.
If he's completely innocent you have to feel absolutely awful for him. He's going to lose millions. It's too bad Hernandez rules out the Pats taking a chance on him late in the draft.
Phragle said:
If he's innocent he lost his ex-girlfriend, may have had to unexpectedly take over the care of his kid, and lost maybe $15 million because somebody he knew was a victim of violent crime. That's a pretty tough week
And the League has denied his request to enter the supplemental draft.Shelterdog said:
So his best bet if cleared would seem to be signing as an undrafted FA. Do such signings count against the rookie pool, or could a team with some cap space actually make him an offer more reflective of his abilities?
I've been hearing Grady Jarrett as a first-round option for the Pats ... I don't get it. Not that he's not a good prospect, but didn't they just use their first last year on a similar player in Easley? Can you play both of them together? I'd be surprised to see a DT who can't two-gap that early.
ElcaballitoMVP said:
Curious about this - I assume you had a bit of inside info from your buddy? Can you post it now?
I posted a couple of names my buddy told me they really liked but it was right at the start of the draft and I didn't want it to somehow makes it's way to twitter or something. He's always asked me to keep things relatively quiet, esp with draft stuff, and there were like 5 hours until the Pats picked so I edited the post. But the names were Kevin Johnson, the CB from Wake and wouldn't ya know it, our guy Malcom Brown. I sent out a few PM's before we picked to let a couple of interested posters know who they liked. It looked like my guy was wrong when the reports of the trade out with Houston came out and he was still available, but it looks like they changed their minds on that deal after Indy passed on him for Dorsett.tims4wins said:
I don't know if I'll get anymore info today, but if I hear any names they like, I'll pass them along.
ElcaballitoMVP said:
Cool, appreciate it, and also appreciate you not leaking anything that could make its way out there.
USAToday ranks the Pats' draft 29th of 32 teams. The Jets ranked No. 1
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/05/02/first-impressions-rankings-jets-leonard-williams-jaguars-vikings-trae-waynes/26793997/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2015/05/02/first-impressions-rankings-jets-leonard-williams-jaguars-vikings-trae-waynes/26793997/
E5 Yaz said:
It was the Belichikiest draft ever. Grab a highly-rated DL in the first. Then a "Wait who?" in each the 2nd and 3rd. Two solid guards in the fourth. Then the LS from Navy in the 5th. Just such a mixture of "Brilliant!" and "Idiotic!" all in one draft.
Does anyone have the quote from Belichick regarding the second and third rounds and the types of players there as opposed to first round prospects? The gist of it, as I recall, was that in the first round, you're looking at players with optimum athleticism and production and in the second and third, players have either optimum athleticism or production, or, if they have both, serious injury concerns.
Viewed through that lens, it makes sense that the majority of fans and pundits would be wowed by the second and third rounders that jump out of the gym and assess them at a higher value than the less athletically-gifted players with good production/experience/game tape, but in reality it seems Belichick is more interested in the latter type of 2nd or 3rd rounder.
Viewed through that lens, it makes sense that the majority of fans and pundits would be wowed by the second and third rounders that jump out of the gym and assess them at a higher value than the less athletically-gifted players with good production/experience/game tape, but in reality it seems Belichick is more interested in the latter type of 2nd or 3rd rounder.
Here it is (from War Room):bradmahn said:
He goes on to list Brandon Spikes as a "production but not measureables" guy (Spikes was a late second, but close enough), and Bethel Johnson, Mike Wallace, and Ben Watson as "measureables but not production" guys (Wallace was actually a third and Watson was a late first). Richards, a late second, pretty clearly seems more like a third-round type guy.
Man, there's so much good stuff in War Room. It's worth buying just for that whole draft section (which also features Belichick's thoughts on why they drafted Vollmer where they did).
I haven't read War Room, but I get the sense, particularly from the 2nd-round picks that many find head-scratching in recent years, that Belichick cares less than other GMs about the game theory calculations around where players 'should' be drafted and where other teams have players on their boards. The usual counter-argument on this board when Belichick makes a pick that seems like a reach (e.g. Richards) is that all it takes is one team who wanted that player, and there was at least one such team in the mix for that player. I don't know if that is always true - that depends on Belichick really, really wanting that player, and it appears to me that Belichick is more comfortable than most in accepting that he rarely needs any one player.
The thought process around Belichick's picks strikes me as something like this:
The thought process around Belichick's picks strikes me as something like this:
- I have this player evaluated as a 2nd-round talent, and I trust the evaluation that arose from the scouting process that I directed more than what the aggregate draft boards say. He's the best player available on my board, so I'm taking this player now.
- At the same time, I know drafting isn't a perfect science, so whenever possible I'd like to get more picks and get the best player available then, to spread out risk. I'll trade the pick down if I get a good offer for more picks.
singaporesoxfan said:
You're part right and part wrong. #1 is EXACTLY what game theory tells you that you should do. So he does #1 and he follows game theory. Exactly because players don't get drafted at their consensus, they get drafted by the team that has them rated the highest.
I know that there's a sort of winner's curse when it comes to picking - players get drafted by the teams that rank them highest. But the "game" in this case isn't a straight out auction - there's multiple rounds of bidding. What I meant by the game theory considerations is that I think Belichick doesn't care about the next step in this game of trying to figure out what everyone has that player at. I think he doesn't go "well, I have him at #64, and I could pick him here, but what does everyone else have him at? If everyone else has him at #100 or more, I can wait for #96 then".
Most of the defense of Belichick's drafting is along the lines of "actually, no, there was at least one team that wanted this player in the next round ahead of #96, so Belichick had to pick him now". I'm arguing that in many cases Belichick doesn't even really care where everyone else has specific players (or thinks it's not worthwhile / too hard to try to figure out with certainty the decision-making processes of 31 other teams).
Most of the defense of Belichick's drafting is along the lines of "actually, no, there was at least one team that wanted this player in the next round ahead of #96, so Belichick had to pick him now". I'm arguing that in many cases Belichick doesn't even really care where everyone else has specific players (or thinks it's not worthwhile / too hard to try to figure out with certainty the decision-making processes of 31 other teams).
You should read War Room.singaporesoxfan said:
So there is some element of guessing what other teams are thinking, but with the understanding that there's a limit to how much you can know and so you'll have to over-draft to make sure you get the guys you want. So Belichick does play in the game theory of what other teams will do, to some extent. I guess if I were to re-phrase your thesis, I would say that Belichick is not consumed by the need to maximize draft capital with every pick; to some extent he would rather run the risk that he's over-drafting a guy than that he'll miss out on a player that can really help.
With Richards, it would not surprise me if he was the last draftable safety on their board. They might think the league values him as a fourth rounder, but that makes waiting until the end of the third too cute so they pulled the trigger at #64. It's also worth noting that the last three big "reach" picks were all safeties. It is very difficult to evaluate college safeties - especially for people outside the league who don't have access to all-22 tape, as safeties are often off-screen on broadcast footage - and there are wide variations in what safeties are asked to do in different schemes both at the college and at the professional level. Belichick seems to value safeties more than most, which also complicates things.
I believe the Pats do over-draft, don't mind doing it, and go about the draft hunting specific players (Jimmy Johnson influence, War Room) rather maximize "value" in some kind of mathematically precise way.
Some things are clear, but most of this guessing game is in the fog. Sure, there are "duh" moments: Steelers want successor to Heath Miller, Ravens jump ahead of them and snag Maxx Williams ( that's not a Kiper or Mayock invention; Ed Bouchette of the PPG wrote that the Steelers would have taken Williams). But for every one of those, there are many other what ifs that are far less clear. But because of those, fear drives drafting when you are targeting people.
Realizing this, I totally backed off my initial reaction to Richards.
Some things are clear, but most of this guessing game is in the fog. Sure, there are "duh" moments: Steelers want successor to Heath Miller, Ravens jump ahead of them and snag Maxx Williams ( that's not a Kiper or Mayock invention; Ed Bouchette of the PPG wrote that the Steelers would have taken Williams). But for every one of those, there are many other what ifs that are far less clear. But because of those, fear drives drafting when you are targeting people.
Realizing this, I totally backed off my initial reaction to Richards.
Sad that the foolish deflategate story has turned attention away from what we really enjoy about the game, such as discussing new players and team-building, for example. No posts in this forum in almost 2 weeks.