2015 MLB Draft Day thread.

Cuzittt · Jun 8, 2015

On the COM, we revisit The 2010 Red Sox Draft

soxhop411 · Jun 8, 2015

“@BenBadler: New @johnmanuelba mock draft at Baseball America: http://t.co/ad2DSRKcDX”

Has us taking Fulmer

absintheofmalaise · Jun 8, 2015

Moved to the main board so more eyes see it.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
For the longest time, it seemed like every mock had Bregman for Boston, but now he is going top 5 everywhere and it's been Fulmer since.

FWIW, the last time the Sox picked this high, the mock drafts had no idea who they were picking.

soxhop411 · Jun 8, 2015

“@ChrisCotillo: Hearing Ke’Bryan Hayes moving up draft boards. Potential top-10 pick.”

kenneycb · Jun 8, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
FWIW, the last time the Sox picked this high, the mock drafts had no idea who they were picking.

From this Grantland article (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-draft-trends-and-predictions-more-pitching-and-high-school-prospects/), basically nobody knows anything about who is picking whom.

In his six mock drafts as Baseball Prospectus’s lead prospect writer from 2007 to 2012, current Astros pro scouting director Kevin Goldstein got only 18 picks right — 13 if we exclude players who went first overall. In 2010, Goldstein went oh-for-the-first-round after getting the gimme top pick, Bryce Harper.

Mugsy's Jock · Jun 8, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
FWIW, the last time the Sox picked this high, the mock drafts had no idea who they were picking

Early returns from Trey Ball suggest neither did the Red Sox...

[Mugsy's Jock is an unapologetic and uninformed Trey Ball nemesis. For some equally unexplainable reason, I defend Michael Chavis.]

Bigpupp · Jun 8, 2015

Up until the last week or so I thought the Sox had an outside chance of having their pick of Bregman, Benintendi and Fulmer, but now it's possible they won't have their pick of any of them. The Sox have been Benintendi's ceiling with the Reds being his floor for the past month but in the last 48 hours he has been mocked to go to one of the Astros pick, Bregman is now a consensus top 5 pick unless the diamondbacks do something weird at #1, and while Fulmer should still be on the board there is a chance shit hits the fan and the Sox, just like in 2013, are left with the best of everyone else.

Should be an interesting night.

Brianish · Jun 8, 2015

I don't know if I'm just being reactionary w/r/t the early-season pitching woes, but I really hope they go with a college arm. I'd be pleased with Fulmer, and thrilled if Tate managed to fall to us.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jun 8, 2015

Mugsys Jock said:
Early returns from Trey Ball suggest neither did the Red Sox...

[Mugsy's Jock is an unapologetic and uninformed Trey Ball nemesis. For some equally unexplainable reason, I defend Michael Chavis.]

~~That's because Chavis throws 99 (but nothing else).~~

Ball would be finishing up his sophomore year of college if he hadn't signed. He did throw six shutout innings last time out. [/hijack]

Minneapolis Millers · Jun 8, 2015

For those of you better informed draftniks, which of those 3 guys reportedly has the highest floor? I'd like to see them minimize complete bust potential with this pick.

Merkle's Boner · Jun 8, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
That's because Chavis throws 99 (but nothing else).

Ball would be finishing up his sophomore year of college if he hadn't signed. He did throw six shutout innings last time out. [/hijack]

Believe you're mixing up Michael Chavis with Michael Kopech. Kopech throws the heat. Chavis, the first pick last year, is expected to have a strong bat but unclear on position.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 8, 2015

Brianish said:
I don't know if I'm just being reactionary w/r/t the early-season pitching woes, but I really hope they go with a college arm. I'd be pleased with Fulmer, and thrilled if Tate managed to fall to us.

You are. You don't draft for major league need, ever. You draft the best player available because the chances you get someone who can help you this year or next is virtually nil and your roster three seasons from now will have completely different needs than your roster today.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
That's because Chavis throws 99 (but nothing else).

Am I missing a joke here? Chavis isn't a pitcher.

Minneapolis Millers said:
For those of you better informed draftniks, which of those 3 guys reportedly has the highest floor? I'd like to see them minimize complete bust potential with this pick.

I have no idea who is going to be available when they pick so I don't think guessing at which of the three has the highest floor is all that helpful. That said, I am on the opposite end of the spectrum. This will, hopefully, be the last time they pick this high for a while and I don't want them playing it safe. After the first two or three picks, high floor usually also means somewhat lower ceiling. I want them drafting for tools and picking the player they think has the highest ceiling when the clock starts for them.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 8, 2015

Merkle's Boner said:
Believe you're mixing up Michael Chavis with Michael Kopech. Kopech throws the heat. Chavis, the first pick last year, is expected to have a strong bat but unclear on position.

That's what I was thinking, but Kopech doesn't just throw heat, either.

Bigpupp · Jun 8, 2015

Bregman has the highest floor in the draft, but he won't be available. Fulmer has a pretty high floor but it might be as a really good reliever instead of a starter.

Merkle's Boner · Jun 8, 2015

Minneapolis Millers said:
For those of you better informed draftniks, which of those 3 guys reportedly has the highest floor? I'd like to see them minimize complete bust potential with this pick.

My take would be that Bregman has the highest floor, could be MLB-ready this time next year. Fullmer also has a high floor, but many scouts, including Law I believe, think he will end up in the pen. #7 is too high to pick a relief pitcher.

Benintendi has highest ceiling but probably lowest floor.

Brianish · Jun 8, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
You are. You don't draft for major league need, ever. You draft the best player available because the chances you get someone who can help you this year or next is virtually nil and your roster three seasons from now will have completely different needs than your roster today.

I'm not saying draft because they need him; I'm usually enamored by college arms. I'm saying I can't tell if I'm being influenced by other factors this year which are causing me to discount - for example - the virtues of Benintendi. I'm a little bit suspicious of my own motives, is my point.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jun 8, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
That's what I was thinking, but Kopech doesn't just throw heat, either.

It was a poor attempt at a joke while trying to defend Ball and doing other things.

But as for something more to the point, I will be interested in seeing how Benintendi does as he is draft eligible as a sophomore because he turns 21 within 40 days of the draft.

Which means that he'll be one of youngest college players drafted.

But which also means that he entered college as a 19-year old and was probably at least a year old than everyone during high school. It will be interesting to follow him.

moondog80 · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
The Red Sox will pick #7 tonight and then not again until pick 81 in the third round.

What happened to the competitive balance pick they got from Oakland in the Lester trade?

Red(s)HawksFan · Jun 8, 2015

moondog80 said:
What happened to the competitive balance pick they got from Oakland in the Lester trade?

Lost when they signed Hanley...or Sandoval. One of them, anyway.

moondog80 · Jun 8, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Lost when they signed Hanley...or Sandoval. One of them, anyway.

Thanks, I didn't realize those picks were subject to forfeiture in free agency.

grimshaw · Jun 8, 2015

I'm hoping for Benitendi. I read that all his tools are at least average, with his hit tool probably being his strongest. Only a so so arm.

Re: Chavis and Ball, Sam Travis was a head scratcher too in the 2nd round last year. Middling power at 1st with below average defense is no way to go through life.

Norm loves Vera · Jun 8, 2015

I have never watched MLB draft before.. how much time does each team get in the first round when it is their turn?

Clears Cleaver · Jun 8, 2015

Brady Aiken not in play for the Sox?

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 8, 2015

grimshaw said:
I'm hoping for Benitendi. I read that all his tools are at least average, with his hit tool probably being his strongest. Only a so so arm.

Re: Chavis and Ball, Sam Travis was a head scratcher too in the 2nd round last year. Middling power at 1st with below average defense is no way to go through life.

Sam Travis does not have middling power. He was one of the best power hitters in college ball last year.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/14/notes-sam-travis-quickly-emerging-power-threat/uqoxXnayMICygQlvpcCc3M/story.html

Edit: And he's my darkhorse favorite to rocket up through the system rankings this season.

E5 Yaz · Jun 8, 2015

Keith Law chat at 4 p.m., Eastern

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51829/mlb-insider-keith-law

E5 Yaz · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
It can be pretty boring. Not as big of a show as NFL/NBA but MLB is trying. I think they get 5 minutes in the first round, but it might be longer. Can't find anything in stone.

This is true ... although part of what made it excruciating to watch was Selig's phlegm-laden montone

soxhop411 · Jun 8, 2015

E5 Yaz said:
This is true ... although part of what make it excruciating to watch was Selig's phlegm-laden montone

And his butchering of pronouncing Los Angeles

Bigpupp · Jun 8, 2015

Clears Cleaver said:
Brady Aiken not in play for the Sox?

Haven't heard his named attached to the Sox at all....until today when both Mayo and Callis did it.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
Yeah. Selig is terrible and can't pronounce any names. Do they still just have the conference call for the later rounds?

First and second day are broadcast on TV, after that they usually just have the draft tracker cover it. You can find the draft tracker at mlb.com.

BUConvict · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
Aiken is high risk/high reward. Sox might think they can get a discount with the injuries, though Aiken held out last year for more money.

Aiken didn't hold out. A (very reasonable) bonus of 6.5m was agreed to, the Astros became concerned with his elbow and reduced their offer to 5m, and Aiken passed it up.

I'd be very pleased if the Sox took him tonight, signed him below slot (but above what he'd get in the late 1st/sandwich round), and then went over slot later in the draft. A potentially unique approach to a draft lacking in top-end talent.

saintnick912 · Jun 8, 2015

norm from cheers said:
I have never watched MLB draft before.. how much time does each team get in the first round when it is their turn?

I miss the days of the conference call. The distance and uncertainty of these players from the majors makes it a poor fit for the NFL/NBA type TV spectacle that they try to make it into. Plus, Tommy Lasorda on the phone was always good for one or two good jokes.

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 8, 2015

Here is Kiley McDaniel's final mock. He has us getting Benintendi:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-final-mock-draft/

Here are his scouting grades for the players. Basically he has Swanson and Rodgers as 55 FV (future value) grades and then 12 guys with 50s before moving to his list of 45+s.

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 8, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
FWIW, the last time the Sox picked this high, the mock drafts had no idea who they were picking.

Concensus was that the Sox should have picked Austin Meadows instead of Trey Ball. Meadows is currently 20, in A+, and slashing .291/.372/.379 with 2 HRs in 235 ABs. Some were worried that he'd never hit for power and so far he hasn't. 11.5% bb / 13.6% K is nice but I think taking a gamble on a high-upside lefty wasn't the worst decision. I guess we'll know in a few years!

OCD SS · Jun 8, 2015

BUConvict said:
Aiken didn't hold out. A (very reasonable) bonus of 6.5m was agreed to, the Astros became concerned with his elbow and reduced their offer to 5m, and Aiken passed it up.

Well, not exactly. The Astros changed their offer to the minimum percentage to get a comp pick (around $3M) and burned their bridges with Aiken so that he didn't even consider their last second offer of $5M.

At the time Aiken wasn't hurt, it was just a medical abnormality and he didn't think it warranted the Astro's tactics, which appeared a lot more duplicitous until Aiken actually got hurt.

brandonchristensen · Jun 8, 2015

I'd love to go after someone that projects power.

strek1 · Jun 8, 2015

brandonchristensen said:
I'd love to go after someone that projects power.

I like the way you think. Doesn't seem like we've done much of that lately in the draft. (Or they just haven't panned out like Middlebrooks?)

RedOctober3829 · Jun 8, 2015

I think Bentinendi and Bregman will be gone by #7. If they go college arm, it's going to be Fulmer,Tyler Jay(who is Illinois' closer but is actually starting today for the Illini), Dillon Tate or maybe even Kyle Funkhowser if Ben believes enough in his stuff and the dip this year is nothing significant. Ben has liked him for a long time.

If they go high school bat, I hope it'd be OF Garrett Whitley of Niskayuna, NY(by way of Melrose, MA and a self-proclaimed Red Sox fan). His power potential is off the charts and he has a plus arm and runs a 6.5 60. Whitley's name was bounced around in the last 2 weeks as a #1 pick candidate but those have cooled down. HS Catcher Tyler Stephenson could be there at #7 who was also talked about at #1. There isn't much available at #7 for a college bat after Bregman and Bentinendi go early.

Daz Cameron is an interesting case. He had a positive drug test that is plummeting him down some boards and the signability issue is real. He is really tempting at #7.

moondog80 · Jun 8, 2015

TimScribble said:
I may be wrong on this, but there has been a lack of power prospects in recent years. And if they were available and more of the sure thing bet, they went early (Bryant, Schwarber). Though the Sox missed out on Gallo.

Keith Law says the Sox like Josh Naylor, who has drawn Prince Fielder comparisons, but most mocks have him later 1st/sandwich round.

OCD SS · Jun 8, 2015

I am warming to idea of gambling on impact talent and taking Whitley.

2015 MLB Draft Day thread.

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