2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?

[knucklecup]

Not taking on DeAndre Jordan at the expense of KG/or caproom is even better.

Still holding out hope for a relatively big return for KG/Pierce (trading KG straight up for DeAndre Jordan would not count as a relatively big return in my eyes....)

I love that Jordan is likely to remain a Clipper

We want the Clips to suck in 2014-15, and one way to help reach that objective is to let DeAndre Jordan remain a Clipper.

This was from the Doc thread two summers ago and wasn't even some of the more egregious things written about DeAndre Jordan.

I would rather have Adam Dunn play for the Celtics than have cap space over DeAndre Jordan.

 

[bowiac]

Sometimes players improve.

 

[ALiveH]

and sometimes forum posters are wrong (but they rarely admit it).
 
even at the time of those discussions he was a 24 year old in 2nd straight year of 15 WS/48 (or whatever metric you choose).  In his 25 year old season he went to 18.6 WS/48.  Not uncommon for players to improve through their mid-late 20s.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

and sometimes forum posters are wrong

Link?

even at the time of those discussions he was a 24 year old in 2nd straight year of 15 WS/48 (or whatever metric you choose).  In his 25 year old season he went to 18.6 WS/48.  Not uncommon for players to improve through their mid-late 20s.

I feel DeAndre is the same player maybe a little more experienced. The big difference is that his coach allowed him to play heavy minutes last year rather than micromanage his every move.

 

[Kliq]

Last year I talked about Sim Bhullar, and continuing the theme of giant human beings, I give you Mamadou N'Diaye:http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Mamadou-Ndiaye-7107/
 
He is 7'6" and has a wingspan of 8'3"! He averaged 7-6 with 3 blocks after his freshmen season at UC Irvine. He didn't play basketball until 2010, and his story is pretty cool. After being spotted in his native Senegal, he moved to America to play in high school. Unfortunatley, it was discovered by doctors that he suffered from a tumor near his optic nerve. Doctors feared that he would be unable to see after the operation, but he ended up coming through it healthy, and was even adopted by one of the nurses who took care of them. Sports on Earth did a great piece on him earlier this year: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/67717370/uc-irvine-7-foot-6-center-mamadou-ndiaye-discusses-challenges
 
I guess he can run the floor pretty well and is nimble for a gargantuan. He is probably the only human being on earth that can do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZqBC_n8PLk

 

[Kliq]

Seriously, I think Okafor is a better prospect than anybody from last year. Not only is he a legitimate NBA center. So far in his college career, he has converted 25 of 30 shots from the field, and already has a good repertoire of post moves and he can faceup and beat his man off the dribble, despite the fact that he is 6'11" and 270lbs. Just an absolute stud.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Stanley Johnson Hype Tape:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9lEBEkeLDE

 

[LondonSox]

It's going to be interesting if Okafor is a stud and the Sixers don't get hurt in the lottery (as they seem nailed on to be the worst team in the league) if they will take Okafor given Noel and Embiid.
 
I would say yes, and trade one. I mean "I have too many great young centers" is not exactly a common phrase.

 

[nighthob]

Draft Express has some new video on Karl Anthony Towns. If Boston's 2015 draft comes out Towns/Stein this team will be set for a decade.

 

[ALiveH]

stanley johnson would be perfect for this team and we might actually have a shot at him if we land mid-lottery..

 

[bowiac]

Draft Express has some new video on Karl Anthony Towns. If Boston's 2015 draft comes out Towns/Stein this team will be set for a decade.

Celtics are gonna make the playoffs sadly.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Celtics are gonna make the playoffs sadly.

Did you need a prescription or acquire these over the counter?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Did you need a prescription or acquire these over the counter?

The 8 seed is very, very, doable. The bottom 2 seeds in the East are going to end up going to bad teams.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The 8 seed is very, very, doable. The bottom 2 seeds in the East are going to end up going to bad teams.

Meh it's fun to dream. A great year for this team will be 32-wins.....that's the upside I see which isn't really close to the 8-seed. We combine the rare ability to be unable to stop anyone with our anemic frontcourt with not having a go-to player to score down the stretch which results in a ton of close losses that give the illusion of a team that's close to turning it around. We're more of a 25-28 win team than a 32 from what I'm seeing.

 

[wutang112878]

To add some perspective, last years 6-12 seeds:

• #6 Brooklyn 44 wins
• #7 Charlotte 43 wins
• #8 Atlanta 38 wins
• #9 New York 37 wins
• #10 Cleveland 33 wins
• #11 Detroit 29 wins
• #12 Boston 25 wins

 
When all is said and done, its probably going to take at least 35 wins to be the #8 so a 10 game improvement?  Dare I say it, I think I agree with HomeRun

 

[nighthob]

Celtics are gonna make the playoffs sadly.

Probably not.

 

[bowiac]

My projections have the C's as being on pace for 38 wins. This is just a toy really, but it's been reasonably accurate historically:
 

 
Plethora of reasons for this to be wrong, but I more or less believe this in the case of the Celtics, given they're close to getting Smart back.

 

[radsoxfan]

My projections have the C's as being on pace for 38 wins. This is just a toy really, but it's been reasonably accurate historically:
 

 
Plethora of reasons for this to be wrong, but I more or less believe this in the case of the Celtics, given they're close to getting Smart back.

 
Less than a week ago you got my hopes up and liked the Celtics for 42 wins! 
 
I don't like this trend….
 
(I'd also be OK taking the under on 51 wins for the Kings if you'd like some action.)

 

[bowiac]

 
Less than a week ago you got my hopes up and liked the Celtics for 42 wins and a 7 seed!
 
I don't like this trend….

Actually, this is still a 7 seed. But yeah, been a bad week.

 

[radsoxfan]

Actually, this is still a 7 seed. But yeah, been a bad week.

 
Yeah, noticed that after I posted…. The East really does suck. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I wouldn't necessarily disagree that the Celtics pythag is a fair in the ballpark projection of what their pythag will be at the end of the season. My biggest qualm is that there is no indication that this team won't continue losing nearly every close game down the stretch due to their inability to score in the final minute against lock down defensive pressure. Thus my 25-28 actual win projection.

 

[bowiac]

I wouldn't necessarily disagree that the Celtics pythag is a fair in the ballpark projection of what their pythag will be at the end of the season. My biggest qualm is that there is no indication that this team won't continue losing nearly every close game down the stretch due to their inability to score in the final minute against lock down defensive pressure. Thus my 25-28 actual win projection.

That's both fair, but also describes half the NBA. It would also affect them throughout the game, which would mitigate the outperform/underperform their pythag effect.
 
Put another way, I'm willing to entertain that that certain factors can influence this in a reliable way, but without a decent sample of under or overperformance, I'd tend to default to it being noise.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That's both fair, but also describes half the NBA. It would also affect them throughout the game, which would mitigate the outperform/underperform their pythag effect.
 
Put another way, I'm willing to entertain that that certain factors can influence this in a reliable way, but without a decent sample of under or overperformance, I'd tend to default to it being noise.

The sample dates back to all of last season an especially when Rondo returned. He's the last guy you want with the ball in his hands in these situations as he had Pierce for this role his entire career. I mean when you consistently can't get shots off in the final minute how large a sample do you want to see?

 

[radsoxfan]

That's both fair, but also describes half the NBA. It would also affect them throughout the game, which would mitigate the outperform/underperform their pythag effect.
 
Put another way, I'm willing to entertain that that certain factors can influence this in a reliable way, but without a decent sample of under or overperformance, I'd tend to default to it being noise.

Not to mention that 10-13 games of underperformance as HRB suggests is a pretty huge difference.

Even if the Celtics personnel is going to reliably underperform their Pythag, I find it hard to believe any type of roster construction is going to be that consistently off.

They are already heavily dinged in the first 47 minutes for not having a top player (or 2), I don't think you can subtract THAT much for the last minute above and beyond their overall talent level. Plus, Lebron can choke at the end, like Rondo or Green, just not as often. These games don't go from automatic wins to automatic losses without a superstar on your team.

A hit of a couple extra losses over the course of the year not fully captured by Pythag.... maybe...

 

[PedroKsBambino]

538, using a pretty standard projection methodology that has been tested, projected Celtics to win 32 games and finish as the 11 seed.  That feels like the right baseline, given the quality of the source and the methodology.  If there's a reason to project them to be 6-10 wins higher would be curious to hear it.

 

[slamminsammya]

538, using a pretty standard projection methodology that has been tested, projected Celtics to win 32 games and finish as the 11 seed.  That feels like the right baseline, given the quality of the source and the methodology.  If there's a reason to project them to be 6-10 wins higher would be curious to hear it.

 
They have played pretty well this year just based on the eye test. They have played really close against a number of good teams.

 

[Cellar-Door]

538, using a pretty standard projection methodology that has been tested, projected Celtics to win 32 games and finish as the 11 seed.  That feels like the right baseline, given the quality of the source and the methodology.  If there's a reason to project them to be 6-10 wins higher would be curious to hear it.

The way they have played so far and the injuries and performances of the other teams in the league. The 538 projection was pre-season, a lot can change once the season starts.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

If we're using an analytical model its going to ascribe extremely little weight to 10 games; I'm not sure what we're using, but it would surprise me if the first 10 games explain a shift that large.
 
I'd imagine his approach is using some different data and there's some reason it projected 42 and then 38 instead of 32.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If we're using an analytical model its going to ascribe extremely little weight to 10 games; I'm not sure what we're using, but it would surprise me if the first 10 games explain a shift that large.
 
I'd imagine his approach is using some different data and there's some reason it projected 42 and then 38 instead of 32.

Well 538 is using a projected RPM for each player, then aggregating to determine team performance. I'm going to assume he's using something totally different.
Also I don;t think you can call a projection system based on a stat that wasn't finalized until 7 months ago tested. This year is going to be the first real test of using RPM as a projecting tool for team performance.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Well 538 is using a projected RPM for each player, then aggregating to determine team performance. I'm going to assume he's using something totally different.
Also I don;t think you can call a projection system based on a stat that wasn't finalized until 7 months ago tested. This year is going to be the first real test of using RPM as a projecting tool for team performance.

 
It's not just RPM they are using, though.    Fair to say RPM alone has not been tested; however, reading all of the articles in the space they are building on a comparatively long lineage of stats that are proven.  So, relative to what's out there it's a much more thoroughly documented approach.
 
I've been arguing for more than a year here about the limitations of using individual stats to project team performance; however, we don't have a superior way to project right now.  As I've done along the way, I'd just note that the uncertainty that approach brings should be seen in the certainty of the results, not in whether there is some value there.

 

[bowiac]

Not to mention that 10-13 games of underperformance as HRB suggests is a pretty huge difference.

Where are the 10-13 games? They're -4 under Stevens so far, which is far back as this current squad can really be traced.
 
538's RPM method is fine as a preseason projection, and in fact, I had the Celtics winning 33 games preseason using my own version of RPM. The purpose of this "toy" is to track performance for a large over/under pool I'm in.
 
However, with respect to PKB's question of how much weight 10 games has? The answer is a lot! Tangotiger summarized this here, and I have posted similar results for my own method. To summarize, using this "toy" on past seasons, at this point in the season in previous years, the R^2 between the projected rest of the season and the actual rest of the season is approximately 0.5. I'm using an SRS-based method however, rather than RPM one, which is why OKC grades out so poorly. It's literally just my own version of SRS, put into a logistic regression to get probabilities of winning any individual game. Then I plug that into the remaining schedule, and project out the rest of the season. It's not back-to-back adjusted yet, although the home court advantage weighting should mostly capture that.
 
Now, I haven't done any testing as to how that compares to RPM-based projections. My guess however is it holds up pretty well, as it has the advantage of "seeing" parts of the season RPM hasn't seen, which for young teams especially is going to be important, given how RPM handles rookie/sophomore seasons. It's certainly done fine in  general however.
 
EDIT - it however just a toy. It took a couple hours to run the regressions and build. A subjective analysis will likely beat it, even if preseason RPM projections will not.

 

[bowiac]

Well 538 is using a projected RPM for each player, then aggregating to determine team performance. I'm going to assume he's using something totally different.
Also I don;t think you can call a projection system based on a stat that wasn't finalized until 7 months ago tested. This year is going to be the first real test of using RPM as a projecting tool for team performance.

Just responding quickly to this, while RPM wasn't formally around, it existed as xRAPM for about a year and half before that. That's the same stat, by the same creator, just with a clunkier name. RAPM is even older, and has been around since about 2009 in public form, which is just RPM without the box-score information. 

 

[radsoxfan]

Where are the 10-13 games? They're -4 under Stevens so far, which is far back as this current squad can really be traced.

HRB agreed with your 38 wins, but said he expects 25-28 based on the lack of a crunch time scorer. Hence a 10-13 win difference....

 

[bowiac]

HRB agreed with your 38 wins, but said he expects 25-28 based on the lack of a crunch time scorer. Hence a 10-13 win difference....

Ah. I see.  Like I said, I haven't seen coherent data either way there, and don't have strong thoughts on the topic. 

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Where are the 10-13 games? They're -4 under Stevens so far, which is far back as this current squad can really be traced.
 
538's RPM method is fine as a preseason projection, and in fact, I had the Celtics winning 33 games preseason using my own version of RPM. The purpose of this "toy" is to track performance for a large over/under pool I'm in.
 
However, with respect to PKB's question of how much weight 10 games has? The answer is a lot! Tangotiger summarized this here, and I have posted similar results for my own method. To summarize, using this "toy" on past seasons, at this point in the season in previous years, the R^2 between the projected rest of the season and the actual rest of the season is approximately 0.5. I'm using an SRS-based method however, rather than RPM one, which is why OKC grades out so poorly. It's literally just my own version of SRS, put into a logistic regression to get probabilities of winning any individual game. Then I plug that into the remaining schedule, and project out the rest of the season. It's not back-to-back adjusted yet, although the home court advantage weighting should mostly capture that.
 
Now, I haven't done any testing as to how that compares to RPM-based projections. My guess however is it holds up pretty well, as it has the advantage of "seeing" parts of the season RPM hasn't seen, which for young teams especially is going to be important, given how RPM handles rookie/sophomore seasons. It's certainly done fine in  general however.
 
EDIT - it however just a toy. It took a couple hours to run the regressions and build. A subjective analysis will likely beat it, even if preseason RPM projections will not.

Just to note, putting aside that Tango was just guessing on the NBA (not doing any kind of study), after 10 games someone is still 40% short of the games he suggested were needed to get to .5.   So even if one agrees with his guess, they are still a lot short of the sample he's suggesting.

All of that is to say that the variability suggested here is very high for any approach that is trying to reflect true talent level.  Which is ok, especially since we're in such early days of NBA analytic projections.  

 

[HomeRunBaker]

HRB agreed with your 38 wins, but said he expects 25-28 based on the lack of a crunch time scorer. Hence a 10-13 win difference....

To be clear I said I don't necessarily disagree with the 38 because the pythag is the pythag. In 3 weeks that pythag could be 33 and I won't disagree with that either. It is more than simply not having a go-to scorer down the stretch.....this team is unique in that it has as poor a defensive frontcourt as I've even seen in the league. I honestly can't recall a worse one. This glaring hole and the lack of halfcourt execution together is why I expect the close losses (or to "we shoulda won that game") to continue until the personnel changes thus underperforming their pythag by a significant amount.

 

[radsoxfan]

To be clear I said I don't necessarily disagree with the 38 because the pythag is the pythag. In 3 weeks that pythag could be 33 and I won't disagree with that either. It is more than simply not having a go-to scorer down the stretch.....this team is unique in that it has as poor a defensive frontcourt as I've even seen in the league. I honestly can't recall a worse one. This glaring hole and the lack of halfcourt execution together is why I expect the close losses (or to "we shoulda won that game") to continue until the personnel changes thus underperforming their pythag by a significant amount.

 
I understand your point, but all of those deficiencies should manifest during the rest of the game as well. If the front court didn't stink on D, if they had a go-to scorer, etc… then they would be a totally different team.  And of course they would have a better Pythag.
 
But I'm not sure I buy that this team is going to underachieve 10+ games above and beyond their overall talent and on-court production simply because they are "extra bad" in the last minute of the game.  Maybe I'm underestimating the unique challenges at the end of the game, but I don't think so. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
I understand your point, but all of those deficiencies should manifest during the rest of the game as well. If the front court didn't stink on D, if they had a go-to scorer, etc then they would be a totally different team.  And of course they would have a better Pythag.
 
But I'm not sure I buy that this team is going to underachieve 10+ games above and beyond their overall talent and on-court production simply because they are "extra bad" in the last minute of the game.  Maybe I'm underestimating the unique challenges at the end of the game, but I don't think so. 

I very much disagree that nba teams vary much from their normal sets to take advantage of mismatches until the game gets tight or in the 4th quarter. The same with turning the game into a halfcourt defense-focused game down the stretch.

If this league were like the NFL with 16 games to spend a week gameplanning for one opponent the pythag not nearly be as high since those holes would manifest more since the opponent would place greater emphasis on them. Over an 82-game grind they are simply running their normal sets regardless of opponent or opponents weaknesses until the second half of the 4th quarter.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Tonight's game is a great example of the Blazers going through their normal sets and through the motions of their regular sets. Aldridge is taking fallaway 18-footers like its a shoot around. Their offensive sets will completely change around the 6-7 minute mark of the game when they pound Olynyk and Sully in the paint should it remain close.

Edit: Defensively Sully played Aldridge very well in the 4th.....credit where credit is due. Kaman killed us agaiant Zeller on the block to begin the quarter that helps them go on a 9-0 run to begin the 4th. The Celtics again struggle to convert in half court sets in the 4th shooting 6-23 for 16 points.

 

[bowiac]

Just to note, putting aside that Tango was just guessing on the NBA (not doing any kind of study), after 10 games someone is still 40% short of the games he suggested were needed to get to .5.   So even if one agrees with his guess, they are still a lot short of the sample he's suggesting.

I think you are confused. The 0.5 R^2 I was referring to came from my own results using this same "toy" method, not from Tango's post. I'm happy to post full details and give the coefficients if you're interested. 0.5 R^2 is hit after 11 games. I think I'm using a slight more sophisticated metric, which is why it beats Tango's estimate a bit.

 

[gammoseditor]

Anyone else starting to think it's possible we end up with two lottery picks next year?  Clippers are looking like Chris Paul and nothing else in a stacked West. 

 

[bowiac]

Anyone else starting to think it's possible we end up with two lottery picks next year?  Clippers are looking like Chris Paul and nothing else in a stacked West. 

It's hard to believe Blake Griffin, #1 overall pick coming off a breakout season, suddenly, at age 25 has lost it. So I'm going to vote "no".

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Anyone else starting to think it's possible we end up with two lottery picks next year?  Clippers are looking like Chris Paul and nothing else in a stacked West. 

Well they do have this guy named Blake dropping 24 ppg but yes it is definitely possible and I'm actively rooting for this team to lose. They have little depth and an injury to Paul and/or Griffin would send this team into a tailspin. There isn't much difference between the 4th seed and the 10th in the West so it's very possible. Really you can say 11th if Durant/Westbrook return soon.

 

[Tony C]

the funny thing about the unbalanced divisions is the West is really helped in a sense in that their bad teams have such a tough schedule that they're more likely to end up with more lottery balls. The Lakers, for example, if in the East would not be much of a contender to end up bottom 5 and keep their pick, but in the West they are.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

In case there wasn't enough imbalance. DeRozan out indefinitely with torn tendon in ankle.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

In case there wasn't enough imbalance. DeRozan out indefinitely with torn tendon in ankle.

 
DeRozan's ankles are in a weird spot.

 

[radsoxfan]

DeRozan tore a tendon in his groin, not sure where the ankle talk is coming from.
 
Adductor longus to be exact, same injury Danny Amendola suffered last season. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

DeRozan tore a tendon in his groin, not sure where the ankle talk is coming from.
 
Adductor longus to be exact, same injury Danny Amendola suffered last season. 

Oooops I had heard ankle in passing on another board.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

DeRozan tore a tendon in his groin, not sure where the ankle talk is coming from.
 
Adductor longus to be exact, same injury Danny Amendola suffered last season. 

 
I thought it was weird to have an ankle next to your grundle.  Unless its someone else's or your name is Swaggy P.  

 

[nighthob]

 
DeRozan's ankles are in a weird spot.

 
Well his girlfriend does call him "foot long".