2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?
- Thread starter Kliq
- Start date
What do we think of Arizona's Stanley Johnson? I caught a couple of Arizona games last week and he's intriguing. Physically, he reminds me of LeBron at a similar age in terms of body type and explosion. He definitely doesn't have LeBron's vision, passing or feel for the game, but really, who does? I doubt the C's will be bad enough (or lucky enough with the ping pong balls) to grab him, but this kid looks like he could be a monster 3 at the next level.
Stanley Johnson is my binky. He is similar size but doesn't have the raw athleticism or explosive vertical as Lebron (not meant as a knock - Lebron is really unique). The comp I've seen thrown around is (not crazy) Ron Artest. Has the same thick football body, similar size, energy & intensity. And, an elite defender at the 3. I love him as a fit on the C's roster b/c we don't have a great SF prospect. I see him as having a high floor as at least a defensive specialist, most likely he'd develop into a serviceable glue-guy starter on a contender & if his offense comes around he has all-star ceiling. Unfortunately, he might be rising towards the high end of the lottery & we're currently slotted #9.
Stanley Johnson is 6-7 with a very middling wingspan. He's also not a great shooter. So I'm not on that bandwagon. IMHO Montrezl Harrell will be a better pro,
Stanley Johnson: 6'7.5" height, 6'10.5" wingspan is just fine for a NBA SF. Yeah, his shooting is just OK, but that's usually one of the last skills to develop.
I'm a fan of Harrell too. I just don't see as clear a roster fit for him. We already have two solid prospects (Olynyk & Sullinger) who's most natural position are also PF.
I'm a fan of Harrell too. I just don't see as clear a roster fit for him. We already have two solid prospects (Olynyk & Sullinger) who's most natural position are also PF.
Agreed. Harrell is going to be a hustle guy, a poor man's Manimal. BuIt I don't see Johnson as a future star of any sort either.nighthob said:
Brickowski said:
Personally I'd rather have Justise Winslow than Johnson anyway. But Karl Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein are still the two guys I'd want out of this draft pool. WCS has already demonstrated the ability to defensively handcuff quick PFs on the defensive end. And offensively Towns has a pretty good face up game that should allow WCS to operate as a garbageman.
Winsow and Towns aren't going to be there anywhere near where the Celtics pick in all likelihood.nighthob said:
Unless you're expecting them both gone in the top three I'm not sure how this could be true. I know everyone will get giddy over Boston going .500 this month, but that January schedule is brutal and a 2-13 or 3-12 month are the most likely outcomes. And sooner or later Green and Rondo will be on the outbound shuttle making a .333 team even worse.Cellar-Door said:
I could see the Boston pick being in the 5-8 range, but that LAC pick is starting to drop. Clips are heating up after a sluggish start, and WCS won't be around with that pick. Dakari Johnson wouldn't be a bad selection there, though. Not the defensive anchor they need, but he's got some post game, tested out well at the Kentucky combine (I still can't believe that's A Thing), and he's got some length.
You think Winslow will score enough at the next level? He strikes me as another complimentary piece, but I've only seen glimpses out of Duke (and mainly paid attention to Oak...).
You think Winslow will score enough at the next level? He strikes me as another complimentary piece, but I've only seen glimpses out of Duke (and mainly paid attention to Oak...).
As for the Boston pick, of the few teams behind them Charlotte at the least is going to end up passing them. As for the Clippers, maybe, but the West is still going to be brutal this year and OKC is making its run. The Clippers have started to win some, but CP3 has yet to have his annual injury and Blake has been looking incredibly unblakish this year (athletically speaking). So there is still a very real chance that the Doc pic ends up being a mid first.
In any event, I keep lists for ranges, and WCS is on my 10-20 list (hard to say where he goes in that range, his defense is great but he doesn't look to have much offensive game outside of garbage buckets). As for Winslow, he's basically Andre Iguodala redux. He is in all likelihood a nothing more than a complementary piece, but once you're out of the top five that's basically what you're drafting anyway. Yes, occasionally you hit the jackpot and that 100-1 shot comes through, but mostly you're just hoping that the guy you draft is useful.
In any event, I keep lists for ranges, and WCS is on my 10-20 list (hard to say where he goes in that range, his defense is great but he doesn't look to have much offensive game outside of garbage buckets). As for Winslow, he's basically Andre Iguodala redux. He is in all likelihood a nothing more than a complementary piece, but once you're out of the top five that's basically what you're drafting anyway. Yes, occasionally you hit the jackpot and that 100-1 shot comes through, but mostly you're just hoping that the guy you draft is useful.
I expect Towns to go top 2 and Winslow to go top 5. I don't think the Celtics are going to be any higher than 5th worst, they went 5-9 with the 4th hardest schedule in basketball so far.nighthob said:
Barring a massive selloff I can't see them being worse than:
Philly (obvious reasons)
Minny (terrible and in the West)
LAL (see Minny)
Charlotte
Detroit
Jazz (West)
I also think they are as good if not better than:
Knicks
Magic
cellar-door,
I agree the C's SHOULD be better than the first 6 teams on your list, but no guarantees. And if Rondo and/or Green get traded, then all bets are off for suckage.
As presently constituted, the Magic are 2 games ahead of the Cs today (3 in the win column). So, I don't know why the C's should be expected to be better than them. The Knicks are currently neck-and-neck record-wise but could easily put something together. They have more talent in the starting lineup and are implementing a new difficult system.
Sadly, I think the C's are going to be somewhere around where they are now in the lotto rankings - just about exactly where they were last year.
I agree the C's SHOULD be better than the first 6 teams on your list, but no guarantees. And if Rondo and/or Green get traded, then all bets are off for suckage.
As presently constituted, the Magic are 2 games ahead of the Cs today (3 in the win column). So, I don't know why the C's should be expected to be better than them. The Knicks are currently neck-and-neck record-wise but could easily put something together. They have more talent in the starting lineup and are implementing a new difficult system.
Sadly, I think the C's are going to be somewhere around where they are now in the lotto rankings - just about exactly where they were last year.
I don't think there's any particular reason that they should be better than a 43 win team. Minnesota, LA, and Detroit are all in their sewage class, but Detroit is trying to win, and will end up making an upgrade deal sooner or later.ALiveH said:
The Knicks are underachieving, it will be interesting to see what sort of upgrade deal they make.ALiveH said:
I'm curious as to why people think the Knicks are underachieving. They start below average defenders at 4 positions, have a single capable post player in the triple-post offense, don't have a reliable second scorer, and have a first year head coach implementing a new system.nighthob said:
Everybody assumes they're buyers and that they're all in, but I don't see it.
Right, they're not only not that good but you have to think Jackson is an utter fool if you think he'll be trying to upgrade. They finally have a pick -- it's a year for them to install a new system, kick the tires on a few oddball rookies and see who works in the system and who doesn't, and prepare both for a high draft pick and a free agent acquisition.
I could see them improving by trading J.R. Smith. He's a poor fit for the triangle and a locker room headache, but not sure what the market for either him and his contract would be. Minimal, obviously.
I could see them improving by trading J.R. Smith. He's a poor fit for the triangle and a locker room headache, but not sure what the market for either him and his contract would be. Minimal, obviously.
I have the entire first page to choose from but it's 3am and WCS just dropped a 21/12/5/3 on a #6 Texas team with NBA size and athleticism so I'm self-quoting!HomeRunBaker said:
Too many links to post here are some of the post-game quotes.....
"Crazy! - Dakari Johnson
"Willie Cauley-Stein was really terrific, he was really the difference in the game. . . . He affected the game every way you can affect it. - Rick Barnes
"I said Marcus, you're his backup today. When he wants to come out you can come in. If he doesn't want to come out, you are not going to play a whole lot today. He's too good. And Willie said, hey, just be ready for me, but I'm going to try to go blow this out, and that's what he did. - Coach Cal
"Nobody has a player of Cauley-Stein's size who can do what he does. He's America's matchup problem." - Eric Crawford
"Cauley-Stein was primarily responsible for both players fouling out, and made nine of the 12 free throws that resulted from Texas reaching. For a giant known more as a finesse player than a dominating force, Cauley-Stein stepped out of character and onto throats." -Mike Weaver
"Though he did not juggle chainsaws or sing arias or perform quadratic equations, Cauley-Stein approached awesome in so many basketball respects that UK coach John Calipari was compelled to make an exception to his platoon system that echoed George Orwell." -Mike Weaver
("All animals are equal," Orwell wrote in Animal Farm, "but some animals are more equal than others.")
#chills4wills
From his chat today:
Alex (Needham, MA)
If you were Danny Ainge, who would be your top choice to add from this upcoming draft?
Chad Ford (1:54 PM)
The Celtics could really use an elite rim protector. I have them taking Willie Cauley-Stein. He's not great offensively and he's a very unusual dude, but he's a terrific athlete who can really help defensively. He's also highly intelligent which I believe Ainge really likes.
(Yes, I am quite aware that my infatuation with this player is borderly obsessive and unhealthy.)
Alex (Needham, MA)
If you were Danny Ainge, who would be your top choice to add from this upcoming draft?
Chad Ford (1:54 PM)
The Celtics could really use an elite rim protector. I have them taking Willie Cauley-Stein. He's not great offensively and he's a very unusual dude, but he's a terrific athlete who can really help defensively. He's also highly intelligent which I believe Ainge really likes.
(Yes, I am quite aware that my infatuation with this player is borderly obsessive and unhealthy.)
I've only seen him play a bit this year, but if what he showed last Friday is any indication of what he can be in the pros, your infatuation is well-founded. My up-thread skepticism of him is what is unfounded.HomeRunBaker said:
I knew about his interior defense. But his ball-handling and help defense have surprised me so far this year.
Guys playing their way on to my board. Mostly as candidates for the 8-12 range.
- D'Angelo Russell G Ohio State freshman- a 6'4"ish combo guard and lefty scorer. Has been effective from the trey this year and has some real playmaking skills. If he can fill out his frame he could be a good running mate for Smart. His shot works for him, but the mechanics make me nervous.
- Myles Turner C Texas freshman- Whatever PED regimen he discovered has worked for him. Much bouncier this year than last. He could be a solid C for the next 12-15 years.
- Bobby Portis PF Arkansas sophomore- The more I watch him the more I love him. Plays hard, solid mid-range shooting skills, appropriate PF size and the athleticism to defend the perimeter.
- Kevon Looney PF UCLA freshman- Another hard working PF with the athleticism to defend the perimeter. He's a Shawn Marionesque sort of player in that he looks like he might be 6'7"-6'8" and purely a garbageman/spot shooter on offense. But his motor never stops running.
Stanley Johnson is destroying Michigan right now. 17 points on 8/10 shooting, 7 REB, 3 AST, BLK, STL, only 1 TO.
Giving effect to the Rondo trade, BOS now has 13 picks in the next two drafts, including 6 1st rounders and the anticipated top 2nd round pick in next year's draft (from PHI).
As of right now, BOS has three of the top 31 picks in next year's draft (10, 24, 31).
edit: revised for final details of DAL pick.
As of right now, BOS has three of the top 31 picks in next year's draft (10, 24, 31).
edit: revised for final details of DAL pick.
Kentucky starting in a minute on CBS for a look at the bigs.
Halftime edit: WCS and Towns is one of the most unfair NCAA frontcourts I've ever seen. WCS just looks very rangy out there, reads plays well. A couple times I've seen him out at the three point line challenging guards and stuck right with them when they tried to blow by. Comfortable running the floor on fast breaks. Good mobility for pick-setting. Still limited offensively but he did have one nice little turnaround hook. He would absolutely cure many of the ills plaguing our current bigs. Towns seems maybe a little more purely physical, with a bigger toolkit on offense which, combined with his age, will make him the higher pick. But WCS looks to me like the kind of defender who makes everyone around him look better, but Towns is extremely gifted and could get there.
Either would look great in green.
Halftime edit: WCS and Towns is one of the most unfair NCAA frontcourts I've ever seen. WCS just looks very rangy out there, reads plays well. A couple times I've seen him out at the three point line challenging guards and stuck right with them when they tried to blow by. Comfortable running the floor on fast breaks. Good mobility for pick-setting. Still limited offensively but he did have one nice little turnaround hook. He would absolutely cure many of the ills plaguing our current bigs. Towns seems maybe a little more purely physical, with a bigger toolkit on offense which, combined with his age, will make him the higher pick. But WCS looks to me like the kind of defender who makes everyone around him look better, but Towns is extremely gifted and could get there.
Either would look great in green.
The Celtics are now tied with Charlotte and LAL with 11 wins, making tonight's clash with the Hornets a big one. The January schedule is pretty rough and includes a 6 game trip to the West, with @Minnesota optimally placed at the end of the trip as the 3rd game in 4 nights for a potentially sneaky L.
Detroit has won 5 straight and is going to blow past the cellar dwellers with Smith out of the picture, meaning that the 4th slot is suddenly very much in play. Anything higher will be tough given the wholesale suck of Philly (5 straight losses), NYK (11 straight and Melo soon to be shut down) and Minny (11 straight), but with the team's #1 scoring option possibly the next to go, who knows. Helping force the Lakers out of the bottom five and costing them their pick would be a nice bonus. I don't see any way Okafor or Towns slip past the top 3 (barring injury) so we'll be begging for some long overdue luck once again if we want one of them.
Dallas looks likely to stay near the top of the standings so that pick is almost certainly rolled over to next year.
LAC is holding pretty strong but in that conference missing the playoffs wouldn't be a huge surprise. They've played a fairly soft schedule so far and their February is a bear. Their lack of depth could eventually start costing them. It'll all depend on Phoenix staying strong and OKC staying healthy for long enough to go on a tear. A big injury to LAC at the wrong time could bury them. Not expecting them to drop out, but the potential is there.
Tonight's prospect to watch is Texas PF/C Myles Turner going against Oklahoma at 9 on ESPN. Good size and skill, can score inside and out and his D has been pretty good. Nice test tonight as he has feasted on lesser competition and struggled against better teams. Currently the third big man off the board in most mock drafts.
Detroit has won 5 straight and is going to blow past the cellar dwellers with Smith out of the picture, meaning that the 4th slot is suddenly very much in play. Anything higher will be tough given the wholesale suck of Philly (5 straight losses), NYK (11 straight and Melo soon to be shut down) and Minny (11 straight), but with the team's #1 scoring option possibly the next to go, who knows. Helping force the Lakers out of the bottom five and costing them their pick would be a nice bonus. I don't see any way Okafor or Towns slip past the top 3 (barring injury) so we'll be begging for some long overdue luck once again if we want one of them.
Dallas looks likely to stay near the top of the standings so that pick is almost certainly rolled over to next year.
LAC is holding pretty strong but in that conference missing the playoffs wouldn't be a huge surprise. They've played a fairly soft schedule so far and their February is a bear. Their lack of depth could eventually start costing them. It'll all depend on Phoenix staying strong and OKC staying healthy for long enough to go on a tear. A big injury to LAC at the wrong time could bury them. Not expecting them to drop out, but the potential is there.
Tonight's prospect to watch is Texas PF/C Myles Turner going against Oklahoma at 9 on ESPN. Good size and skill, can score inside and out and his D has been pretty good. Nice test tonight as he has feasted on lesser competition and struggled against better teams. Currently the third big man off the board in most mock drafts.
I would be terrified of Turner as a top 5 pick given that lack of athleticism. I think he profiles as a capable starting NBA center, I just don't see that he's going to make a huge impact at either end. I currently have him fourth on my list of Cs and 10th on my board.
For the record my board at present...
For the record my board at present...
- Karl Anthony Towns
- Jahili Okkafor
- Justise Winslow
- Emmanuel Mudiay
- D'Angelo Russell
- Willie Cauley-Stein
- Stanley Johnson
- Kristaps Porzingis
- Kelly Oubre
- Myles Turner
I like the list (although I'm still not completely sold on Winslow since I'm not sure he'll ever shoot well enough for a wing). D'Angelo Russell has been one of my favorites to watch this year; Chad Ford referred to him as James Harden Lite recently and I can see it. Athletic lefty combo guard with a quick release and great range, bouncy, plays with terrific confidence and I can absolutely see him developing into a 20ppg scorer in the NBA. As much as I want to see a big who can defend and rebound in traffic, they're also crying out for a go-to scorer who can create his own shot. Watching Evan Turner isolation plays as they try to close out games is just so depressing. A Smart/Russell back court makes a ton of sense and they compliment each other pretty well. Russell at 1A and a guy like Dakari Johnson at 1B would be a pretty interesting draft for me.nighthob said:
So um thats a no for me on Turner after tonight, Also if we're picking in the top 5 Euro's give me hives (happy to take one with say the Clippers pick). Assuming we get shut out in the lottery again and Okafor and Towns are not available I pretty much have settled on Willie Cauley Stein. He has the size and the hops and what seems to be the chops to defend the rim. And he's got the athleticism to not embarrass himself if the other team moves a stretch 4 to center. His Offense is unpolished but I'll take Size, Energy and hops to start with.
so which of these KY players is supposed to be good? Ole Miss is up one with 30 seconds left at Rupp. Towns doesn't even play it seems, or pif he does has been completely invisible. WCS is long but missed three FTs downs trench and commtted foul on pick and roll
True but WCS still ended up with 4 blocks 3 steals and 12 boards 4 on Offense. Look I'm no scout but he has good height, a frame to which I believe he can add some muscle and excellent athleticism. He's not a jump shooter and he clearly has his trouble at the stripe but in better news he's brought his FT% up 10 points each season. with this year currently at a hair under 61.Clears Cleaver said:
great call...he is Tyson Chandler without the mean streak (at this point)
The KY kids all seem to play without emotion. Its odd. Except one of the Harrisons, who probably won't ever be good pros.
The KY kids all seem to play without emotion. Its odd. Except one of the Harrisons, who probably won't ever be good pros.
I would worry he'll have the same slow development timeline as Chandler if I was a GMClears Cleaver said:
Minnesota has lost a dozen or so games in a row, but they looked feisty against Phoenix last night. Wiggins has been on a bit of a roll too, 20+ points in 7 of the last 8, with at least 50% shooting in all but 2 of those games.
Infield Infidel said:
Wiggins has looked a lot better ever since they traded Brewer and moved Muhammad into the SF spot. He's fairing much better against smaller SG's. With Pekovic back in a week or two, followed shortly by Rubio, hopefully they put together a few wins...
I'm glad it isn't my job to judge college wings. I know Russell is soaring, but so much of the college game is all about the guards and bigs. Trying to watch Oubre today. Really good size, smooth athlete, but goes long stretches without being asked to do anything but move the ball to the next guy. Decent shooting and rebounding numbers since becoming a legit part of the rotation.
As of today, the Celtics would pick 9th (assuming they don't get lucky in the lottery). The top tier (in no particular order) looks like:
Okafor
Russell
Mudiay
Towns
Johnson
Porzingis
Looney
On the assumption that all seven are selected before the Celtics pick, the next tier (in no particular order) looks like:
Wing players:
Winslow
Oubre
Hezonja
Booker
Inside players:
Turner
Cauley-Stein
Harrell
Portis
At this time, my preference would be (1) Cauley-Stein (position of need, could be game changer defensively, easier to find wing scoring elsewhere), then (2) one of the wings (hard to choose among them at this point).
Okafor
Russell
Mudiay
Towns
Johnson
Porzingis
Looney
On the assumption that all seven are selected before the Celtics pick, the next tier (in no particular order) looks like:
Wing players:
Winslow
Oubre
Hezonja
Booker
Inside players:
Turner
Cauley-Stein
Harrell
Portis
At this time, my preference would be (1) Cauley-Stein (position of need, could be game changer defensively, easier to find wing scoring elsewhere), then (2) one of the wings (hard to choose among them at this point).
The Clippers pick should slide a little bit. Their February is brutal and the roster is razor thin; Redick is currently out with back issues. If it ends up around the #20 it could be a good chance for Ainge to cash in one or two of his extra assets to move up if there's a second guy he really likes. WCS + a late lotto wing would be a nice haul if the balls don't bounce right.
They are still close enough to the 9-seed to where a key injury can still knock them out of the playoffs.Jed Zeppelin said:
No chance WCS is lasting until 9-10 with his NBA ready skillset and history of Cal's players succeeding in the league. He's gone in the top 5-6.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Paul went down and between that and the Rondo injury Boston ended up with three lotto picks?HomeRunBaker said:
Don't expect Boston to hold on to its spot. Sooner rather than Prince will be outbound and Thornton bought out, and Boston be left with C.Y. Bass leading the way.
HomeRunBaker said:
Let's assume for the sake of argument that the lottery goes according to form and that the top pick is Okafor, even if not needed.
1. MIN - needs a stretch 4 more than anything but will take Okafor
2. NYK - need PG or C (could take Mudiay or Russell, I'll assume Russell)
3. PHI - need a shooter (could take Russell or Johnson, I'll assume Johnson)
4. LAL - top player available, too many holes (assume they'll take whoever drops, I'll assume Towns)
5. ORL - need a shooter (I'll assume Mudiay doesn't fall past here, he's too talented and they'll figure out the roster later)
6. UTA - need a swingman (could take Porzingis, Looney, Hezonja or Winslow, I'll assume Winslow)
7. SAC - need a PF or PG (could take Porzingis or Looney, I'll assume Looney)
8. IND - need a PG, could take WCS if Hibbert leaves, I'll assume Cauley-Stein)
9. BOS - ...
WCS is gone but Porzingis has dropped from my top tier. The choices are: Porzingis, Oubre, Hezonja, Booker, Turner, Harrell and Portis.
My gut right now is Hezonja, based on this runout. Seems like a Danny choice.
I could see WCS dropping because a number of the high-lottery teams need offense more than they need interior defense (MIN, PHI, ORL, UTA, SAC). LAL and NYK could use almost everything but right now are picking too high to take WCS. That leaves IND as the most likely candidate to take WCS at this point before the Celtics pick, IMO.