2015 Offseason: Non-Revis Edition

E5 Yaz

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2. One reason some around the league believed this contract proposal for Reviswas a little light was because he played 2014 for the under-market salary of $12 million. So those reading the Revis tea leaves project he might want to recoup some of those wages in this next contract, which sets up as his last big pay day (he turns 30 July 14). A deal that averages at least $16 million per season and has as much as $50 million in the first three years could very well be in his reach if maximizing earning potential is goal No. 1. I’m not sure the Patriots would stretch that far, but a strong case could be made for them to do so.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4778547/quick-hit-thoughts-around-patriots-nfl-17?ex_cid=espnapi_public
 

E5 Yaz

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Guess the Patriots' home opener opponent & you could win tickets to the game!
 
https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/572083142141579264
 

alydar

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Thanks for that E5. Although it does remind me that the home slate could be a bit of a stinker this year... Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, ick.
 
When it is arguable that the third-best home game to attend this year is Buffalo... I suppose the silver lining is that most of the Patriots prime time games (e.g. pains in the butt to go to) will be road games: Denver, Indy, Dallas, Giants -- all those are potential national games. 
 

Reverend

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alydar said:
Thanks for that E5. Although it does remind me that the home slate could be a bit of a stinker this year... Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, ick.
 
When it is arguable that the third-best home game to attend this year is Buffalo... I suppose the silver lining is that most of the Patriots prime time games (e.g. pains in the butt to go to) will be road games: Denver, Indy, Dallas, Giants -- all those are potential national games. 
Indy?
 

Corsi

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RedOctober3829

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Wow, from Reiss, Gostkowski is MORE LIKELY to get the tag than DMC at this point.

 
If the New England Patriots use the franchise tag before Monday's 4 p.m. ET deadline, there is a greater likelihood it will be assigned to kicker Stephen Gostkowski than safety Devin McCourty, according to multiple sources involved in discussions with those involved.If the Patriots elect to use the franchise tag, it appears kicker Stephen Gostkowski will most likely be the beneficiary.
Gostkowski's tag projects to be closer to $4.5 million, while McCourty's would be approximately $9.5 million.

These situations are always fluid, and things can always change in the hours leading up to the tag deadline, but this is the latest information we've learned at this time.

The possibility McCourty heads to unrestricted free agency without restrictions of a franchise tag would create a scenario in which any team could sign him without giving up compensation to the Patriots. If that's the way it unfolds, based on past history, the Patriots would likely keep an open line of communication with McCourty and his representatives by letting them know they're interested in retaining him. McCourty could then decide if the team's offer matches up to what he receives on the open market.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4778574/stephen-gostkowski-a-more-likely-candidate-for-tag-than-devin-mccourty?ex_cid=espnapi_public
 

Stitch01

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SeoulSoxFan said:
A prediction: BB keeps Revis on a highest CB contact ever, but lets McCourty go, calculating that Harmon stepping in would be a worthy gamble.
Surprised at the McCourty/no tag speculation from Reiss.  Wonder if they'll both end up gone. Would certainly change the complexion of the offseason and cap situation.  I think not tagging McCourty is a mistake, but lets see how it plays out.
 

ShaneTrot

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They cannot keep everyone the next few years, good young players are going to have to be let go. Do they start by letting McCourty go? 
 

RedOctober3829

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ShaneTrot said:
They cannot keep everyone the next few years, good young players are going to have to be let go. Do they start by letting McCourty go? 
Why would they let DMC go though if they don't have to even let him go to the open market?  Tag him for the 9+ million and get it over with.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Why does the Reiss story preclude the possibility of signing DMC to a well-structured LT deal?
 
This is my hope. What's the cap hit on a franchised kicker these days? Can't imagine it's too high. 
 
Sign DMC and Revis to extensions, use the tag on Ghost and then fill in the remaining pieces in the draft. 
 

tims4wins

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
 
This is my hope. What's the cap hit on a franchised kicker these days? Can't imagine it's too high. 
 
Sign DMC and Revis to extensions, use the tag on Ghost and then fill in the remaining pieces in the draft. 
 
I think it is $3.5-$4M, which is totally reasonable. But it just seems from afar that it would be a lot easier to structure a LT deal for Ghost, franchise DMC, and then continue to negotiate with DMC to structure a LT deal (especially given the uncertainty with Revis).
 
In other words, we could all throw out a pretty easy contract for Ghost - say 4 years, $16M, with $6M guaranteed. $2.5M base salaries each year. Something like that. That would be good for both player and team and is straightforward and isn't affected by Revis. But with DMC we need the flexibility to be creative based on what happens with Revis.
 
Just my $.02.
 

chonce1

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My gut tells me  is that the Pats might not think McCourty is worth tagging -- very worried about this.
 

bankshot1

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I think the tag for safeties is around $9MM.
 
So maybe the Pats want to sign DMC to a LT deal (5Y) with about $20-24MM guaranteed, and with a large enough bonus (ie, $12MM) to bring the cap hit down AND also help solve the cash spend issue they have to deal with.
 

BigJimEd

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According to Reiss, the tag for safeties is around 9.5.

The problem with the LT deal is that it becomes much riskier when MCCourty is free to negotiate with other teams. Using the tag doesn't mean he had to play under it. They can still negotiate a long term deal.
 

RedOctober3829

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BigJimEd said:
According to Reiss, the tag for safeties is around 9.5.

The problem with the LT deal is that it becomes much riskier when MCCourty is free to negotiate with other teams. Using the tag doesn't mean he had to play under it. They can still negotiate a long term deal.
The tag for P/K is $4.1 million.  I think you can find a good kicker in the draft or in free agency much easier than you can find a safety of DMC's caliber.  If they let him go test FA, the chances of him getting a bigger deal from a team with more cap space is pretty high.  In Bill We Trust and we know that Revis is the bigger priority right now, but not tagging DMC is not the move I'd make.
 

Reverend

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The Ghost v. McCourty may or may not be surprising--it entirely depends upon the state of the negotiations with each player, of which we have limited information.
 

Shelterdog

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chonce1 said:
My gut tells me  is that the Pats might not think McCourty is worth tagging -- very worried about this.
 
I trust their assessment so I'm not worried but it is surprising.
 
Frankly I would have guessed that they tag him with the expectation that they don't resign him next year.  He'll be 28 next season, but in 2016 you're looking at a 29 year old player when you also have Hightower, Jones and Collins (and Harmon and Ryan) in contract years: the smarter call might be to try to keep the front seven together at that point.
 

ivanvamp

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Hearing sports radio all over Belichick for the possibility of losing Revis and McCourty but tagging Ghost.
 
I know it's ok as fans to question things, but good grief, hasn't the one major lesson we've learned over the last 14 years been that Belichick actually knows what he's doing, and that he's really, REALLY good at running a football team?  
 

BigJimEd

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There is no Rev said:
The Ghost v. McCourty may or may not be surprising--it entirely depends upon the state of the negotiations with each player, of which we have limited information.
sure but if they don't have an agreement in place by the deadline those negotiations can turn dramatically.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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ivanvamp said:
Hearing sports radio all over Belichick for the possibility of losing Revis and McCourty but tagging Ghost.
 
I know it's ok as fans to question things, but good grief, hasn't the one major lesson we've learned over the last 14 years been that Belichick actually knows what he's doing, and that he's really, REALLY good at running a football team?  
 
Yup. I mean I think it's fine to question things or be surprised by things. But I'm basically past thinking I know better than Belichick. 
 

tims4wins

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Denver has signed Sanders, and Ware, and Talib, and TJ Ward - and BB has done NOTHING!
 
You're absolutely right, Mike!
 

Stitch01

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Its of course possible that they think they know McCourty's market and/or are far enough in negotiations that they know they'll be happier with the LT deal than the tag.  It seems from everything we've heard like McCourty is staying here for equal money at worst.  Just a little surprised its gotten this far.
 
Not surprised the WEEI crowd is back in force. BOLD TAKE: Pats will win 11-13 games and be in the title hunt next year even if McCourty and Revis both skip town
 

RedOctober3829

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Stitch01 said:
Its of course possible that they think they know McCourty's market and/or are far enough in negotiations that they know they'll be happier with the LT deal than the tag.  It seems from everything we've heard like McCourty is staying here for equal money at worst.  Just a little surprised its gotten this far.
 
Not surprised the WEEI crowd is back in force. BOLD TAKE: Pats will win 11-13 games and be in the title hunt next year even if McCourty and Revis both skip town
If you tag DMC, you can still work out a long term deal to lower that 2015 cap number.  They are either really close in negotiations that the Pats are using good faith and not putting the tag on him-or- they are so far apart that they want him to test the waters and see if he can get what he wants somewhere else and come back to the Pats at the end to see if they'd match.
 

ivanvamp

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Stitch01 said:
Its of course possible that they think they know McCourty's market and/or are far enough in negotiations that they know they'll be happier with the LT deal than the tag.  It seems from everything we've heard like McCourty is staying here for equal money at worst.  Just a little surprised its gotten this far.
 
Not surprised the WEEI crowd is back in force. BOLD TAKE: Pats will win 11-13 games and be in the title hunt next year even if McCourty and Revis both skip town
 
Yes they will be.  But I doubt they win it all without those two.  But they'd still have a great chance to make the AFCCG.  
 

Stitch01

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ivanvamp said:
 
Yes they will be.  But I doubt they win it all without those two.  But they'd still have a great chance to make the AFCCG.  
Meh, as much as I hope those guys are back Im not going to worry about that for a long time, and certainly not before free agency and the draft.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
If you tag DMC, you can still work out a long term deal to lower that 2015 cap number.  They are either really close in negotiations that the Pats are using good faith and not putting the tag on him-or- they are so far apart that they want him to test the waters and see if he can get what he wants somewhere else and come back to the Pats at the end to see if they'd match.
They might be pretty certain they lock him up and less far along with Ghost and want to save the tag for him.  Would seem weird to me to go that route, but its a possibility.
 

pappymojo

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Would the compensatory draft picks at all weigh in on this decision? If McCourty signed elsewhere for $10 million would the Patriots get a higher compensatory draft pick than if Ghost signed elsewhere for $4 million?
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_draft#Compensatory_picks
 
In addition to the 32 selections in each of the seven rounds, a total of 32 compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more or better compensatory free agents than they signed in the previous year.[42] Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

All compensatory picks are awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections").

Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.
 

soxhop411

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Ben Volin ‏@BenVolin 4s4 seconds ago
Pats adjusted salary cap is actually lower -- $144.58M. Bumped down by more than $5m in incentives earned last year. Need to trim about $11m
 

koufax32

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Speaking of compensatory picks has it been decided what they will get for losing Talib?
 

Shelterdog

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koufax32 said:
Speaking of compensatory picks has it been decided what they will get for losing Talib?
 
Not yet--they get announced at the league meetings.  People speculate that it will be a third round pick.
 

Ed Hillel

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We don't see Duron Harmon play every day, so I think it's a bit much to say that letting McCourty walk for 10 million is "stupid." We also don't know the stage of contract negotiations between the two sides. If we lose McCourty, keep Revis, and use that 10 million to strengthen the OL/DL, I won't be heartbroken.
 

Super Nomario

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Ed Hillel said:
We don't see Duron Harmon play every day, so I think it's a bit much to say that letting McCourty walk for 10 million is "stupid." We also don't know the stage of contract negotiations between the two sides. If we lose McCourty, keep Revis, and use that 10 million to strengthen the OL/DL, I won't be heartbroken.
Harmon's interesting. They thought enough of his ability to play as the only deep safety that in passing situations they frequently put McCourty in the box with just Harmon deep. On the other hand, they preferred Chung as an every-down option next to McCourty in pretty much all other situations. Losing McCourty would hurt depth, too - Tavon Wilson would become the primary backup at both safety spots, and really the only plausible option.
 

Shelterdog

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One small thing I hadn't focused on is that McCourty is older than I'd thought--he'll be 28 next year and he's only 23 months younger than Revis.  I could see the Pats deciding that they don't want two somewhat older, very expensive players in the same position group which is what you'd have by 2016 if you sign them both long-term.
 

dcmissle

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Makes sense. The question -- and concern -- now is whether we lose them both.
 

ivanvamp

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I find it hard to believe the Patriots would lose McCourty and Revis because they tagged Ghost.  I suppose it's possible, but I would be very surprised.
 
Maybe one of them, but not both.
 

BigJimEd

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Shelterdog said:
One small thing I hadn't focused on is that McCourty is older than I'd thought--he'll be 28 next year and he's only 23 months younger than Revis.  I could see the Pats deciding that they don't want two somewhat older, very expensive players in the same position group which is what you'd have by 2016 if you sign them both long-term.
What is old for a safety? I've seen a few articles about McCourty mentioning safeties playing into their mid 30s. Not sure how accurate that is though.
If age was a big factor would the tag have made more sense? Plus there is no guarantee Revis will be back.

And if they don't want him long term then what could they have received in a trade if they had tagged him? Enough to risk losing Gost and tying up cap space until they got a deal done?

I think they still hope to sign him long term but didn't want to tie up that much cap space at this time.
 

soxhop411

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@DougKyedNESN: One thing to watch in McCourty negotiations is that Patriots have to hand out cash this offseason to hit threshold. Otherwise penalized.