There was a play late in the game in which Harmon, from the single high safety spot, drove toward a receiver/route that Luck was locked onto. Luck pivoted back to another target - Fleener - being covered by McCourty but Harmon recovered and broke up the pass. Good example of his quickness and range. Also a good thing because Fleener had a step on McCourty with no one left deep.
2015 Patriots Secondary: Safety in Numbers
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
Crazy he signed for the most guaranteed money for a CB ever in the 2012 offseason at 26 million.
Against the pass, here are the Pats rankings 2015 and 2014
2014
YPG - 17 (240)
YPA - 15 (7.2)
% - 8 (59.6%)
Rating - 10 (84.0)
2015
YPG - 17 (249)
YPA - 9 (7.1)
% - 12 (63.0%)
Rating - 11 (85.3)
And that is with a ton of garbage time yardage and multiple garbage time TDs
Virtually the exact same level of performance as with Revis & Browner
Oh and 2013:
YPG - 18 (239)
YPA - 13 (7.0)
% - 4 (57.0)
Rating - 9 (81.0)
You could make the argument that Revis really had no effect on the secondary
2014
YPG - 17 (240)
YPA - 15 (7.2)
% - 8 (59.6%)
Rating - 10 (84.0)
2015
YPG - 17 (249)
YPA - 9 (7.1)
% - 12 (63.0%)
Rating - 11 (85.3)
And that is with a ton of garbage time yardage and multiple garbage time TDs
Virtually the exact same level of performance as with Revis & Browner
Oh and 2013:
YPG - 18 (239)
YPA - 13 (7.0)
% - 4 (57.0)
Rating - 9 (81.0)
You could make the argument that Revis really had no effect on the secondary
Stitch01 said:
Let me ask you a question: if the Pats had lost to the Ravens 31-28, or to Seattle 31-28, with the D being a huge culprit in either loss... would you have come out of 2014 thinking it was their best secondary of the last 5 years, or just another meh unit?
Edit: one more stat to add - DVOA against the pass is 3.4% this year (10th) vs. 2.5% last year (12th) so some slight regression there but better ranking. 2013 was 4.1% (14th)
The secondary performance is very different than last year. While it might have a similar yield in yardage and rating, I would think last year's strength is probably more useful against better teams.
2015 DVOA: 22nd vs. WR1, 20th vs. WR2, 21st vs. Other WR, 4th vs. TE, 9th vs. RB
2014 DVOA: 7th vs. WR1, 17th vs. WR2, 7th vs. Other WR, 30th vs. TE, 14th vs. RB
The front 7 is much better this year. Their adjusted sack rate was bottom half of the league last year and it's top 3 this year. The secondary isn't the mess it could have been, Collins and Hightower are only getting better and the d-line is pressuring the QB more. Defense could very well end up better this year than last, but Revis definitely impacted the secondary in a big way.
2015 DVOA: 22nd vs. WR1, 20th vs. WR2, 21st vs. Other WR, 4th vs. TE, 9th vs. RB
2014 DVOA: 7th vs. WR1, 17th vs. WR2, 7th vs. Other WR, 30th vs. TE, 14th vs. RB
The front 7 is much better this year. Their adjusted sack rate was bottom half of the league last year and it's top 3 this year. The secondary isn't the mess it could have been, Collins and Hightower are only getting better and the d-line is pressuring the QB more. Defense could very well end up better this year than last, but Revis definitely impacted the secondary in a big way.
If the stats are showing that the secondary from last year and the secondary from this year are pretty close, then it's a good example of the stats can lie. And I think in football, maybe especially as it pertains to the D, eye-test can be pretty different from the charts.
EDIT: spelling
EDIT: spelling
The latter although I think it was slightly overrated.
Raw yardage stats with no context don't mean much. Team passing stats measure more than secondary effectiveness. Other positions have different players this year or the same players playing at different performance levels.
THey obviously couldn't re sign him but I'm pretty confident having Revis had a material effect on the secondary
Raw yardage stats with no context don't mean much. Team passing stats measure more than secondary effectiveness. Other positions have different players this year or the same players playing at different performance levels.
THey obviously couldn't re sign him but I'm pretty confident having Revis had a material effect on the secondary
Obviously he changed the way they play, but overall, the point is the pass D has been of similar effectiveness, which shows there is more than one way to skin a cat
tims4wins said:
Oh, you're serious?
Do you think that the opposition - overall offensive quality, quarterbacks and receivers - should factor into your hot take?
FWIW, there's more than one way to evaluate play. Stats, in football, is near the bottom of reliable methods. But knock yourself out with the Van-level analysis of unlike sample sizes.
As I've said before, they saw the schedule this year and knew they didn't need Revis and Browner. Their front 7 is now the strength of the unit, but don't discount what McCourty means back there. He is a chess piece like Revis that can and has been moved around to meet the needs of the game plan that week. Having other safeties who can play different roles like Richards, Chung, and Harmon allows McCourty to be moved.
Do the CB's need to improve? Yes. But, it hasn't been a unit that is the downfall of the team that others have thought it would be without Revis. As we all know about Belichick teams, they get better as the year goes on and I believe this secondary will continue to improve. Ryan has shown improvement for sure.
Do the CB's need to improve? Yes. But, it hasn't been a unit that is the downfall of the team that others have thought it would be without Revis. As we all know about Belichick teams, they get better as the year goes on and I believe this secondary will continue to improve. Ryan has shown improvement for sure.
I don't know, this team is always gearing up to try and win championships and they cant look at the playoff schedule before the season. They just couldn't pay Revis a kajillion dollars without weakening the rest of the team in other areas this season (particularly, as you noted, because signing Revis likely would have meant losing McCourty) and in future seasons (when they have to lock up Collins, Hightower, and perhaps Jones)
Yes, that was a big factor as well. There's no doubt in my mind however when the Pats saw their opponents for 2014 and all the elite QB/WRs they'd have to face that when Revis became a FA that they had to get him. It was a unique opportunity to get a future HOF in the building on a short deal to meet their needs for that season. Of course they'd like to have a player of his talent on a long-term deal but as you said they have to look forward and see how many other key players they'd need to pay. For the '14 season, Revis and the Patriots were a match made in heaven.Stitch01 said:
Probably would have, but Revis made it clear it was a 1-year deal by putting that ridiculous option year in.Stitch01 said:
The Pats knew they had a chance to get Revis on a short term deal without killing their cap, and so they pounced on it. The cost of doing that deal was to make it a 2 year deal so they could spread out the guaranteed money in order to squeeze him onto the 2014 roster, and the option clearly telegraphed to Revis that this was a 1 year deal, which is what he wanted.
The only other feasible alternative was a long term deal. But I can see why neither side really wanted that due to the fact that Revis had spent the prior season recovering from a serious knee injury. And as great as Revis was, it makes sense that Belichick would prefer to have the cap space to be sure that guys like Hightower, Collins, Chandler Jones, McCourty are able to stick around.
The Browner decision was the result of a cold and hard evaluation of his play in 2014 and likely decline in 2015. The reality is that Butler has been better than Browner this season, and a lot cheaper.
The only other feasible alternative was a long term deal. But I can see why neither side really wanted that due to the fact that Revis had spent the prior season recovering from a serious knee injury. And as great as Revis was, it makes sense that Belichick would prefer to have the cap space to be sure that guys like Hightower, Collins, Chandler Jones, McCourty are able to stick around.
The Browner decision was the result of a cold and hard evaluation of his play in 2014 and likely decline in 2015. The reality is that Butler has been better than Browner this season, and a lot cheaper.
lexrageorge said:
Not just that, but also a pretty far-sighted realization early in the off-season that the best strategy for success in 2015 was going to involve a much more balanced mix of man and zone coverage. Browner frequently played a particular type of zone coverage in Seattle but he just isn't suited for a lot of other zone schemes.
Which as I recall we all saw in the AFCCG when Browner was benched, yes? Or was that the Baltimore game?Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Was just looking for the snap count on Justin Coleman but couldn't find it. He seemed to be on the field a lot, including on the first play of the game, and was....competitive, albeit not great. The Dolphins were definitely picking on him so he seemed like a bit of a weak link, but encouraging all the same that the Pats have confidence in him and he was okay.
The fellow who took me to last night's game told me that he heard a press conference with Belichick in which he was asked what Chung had done to improve his performance this year. Apparently Bill said that it wasn't Chung who had changed, it was the way the coaching staff was using him. BB apparently admitted that Chung was not being deployed properly in the past and now is.
These are part of the PFF box scores now: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201510290nwe.htmTony C said:
I wrote about this for ITP last year: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/long-form-editorial/profiles/2014/11/12/prodigal-chung-returns/ (sorry, GIFs broken). He's a really good man coverage defender. He struggled in zone coverage. Playing alongside McCourty (and Harmon) helps him a lot because he doesn't have to play deep zones anymore.Koufax said:
Someone said it elsewhere but i will second the thought. What a bizarre career arc that man has had.joe dokes said:
One of the stats sites had Chung ranked as the 9th best safety in the league this season (they have DMC 7th) going into the Miami game.
Super Nomario said:
That 's great stuff I wish I'd read in a timely manner. Its always nice to see something more definitive than "BB keeps sending him out there; BB knows more about defense than i do; there's probably a good reason." My eyes told me that his obviously good run play likely made up for whatever shortcomings there were, but the shortcomings werent even that short.
Funny stat: Logan Ryan has caught more passes (3 interceptions) than Cordarrelle Patterson (2 catches) in 2015.
It's weird the way Pats fans consistently downgrade Logan Ryan. It's a bit like what used to happen with Kyle Arrington; whipping boy syndrome, or a tendency to scapegoat out of proportion. He has limitations, but I feel like the coaches have finally figured out what he does well and get him in positions where he does those things. He's not an all-pro or a shutdown corner, but there's far worse #2s in the league.
It seems likely that the Browner marriage in New Orleans is going to end poorly. I wonder if we might see a situation similar to Blount last year. Browner's a flawed player but he brings size and physicality. I don't think he starts over Ryan in most matchups, but he'd be a nice option against teams like the Jets who have multiple big receivers, and he'd provide depth so Rashaan Melvin never, ever has to see the field.
Reports after the game were that he was fine.
http://nesn.com/2015/11/patriots-safety-duron-harmon-is-fine-after-injury-scare-vs-redskins/
Edit:Added link
http://nesn.com/2015/11/patriots-safety-duron-harmon-is-fine-after-injury-scare-vs-redskins/
Edit:Added link
I'd say he's the biggest surprise on the whole team. I thought for sure that the DBs would be the biggest weakness this year, but if anything, it's been a strength, and Ryan is one of the top reasons why.
Can someone who knows better explain what Ryan is doing better this year? And does it bear any resemblance to what he was doing his rookie year? Or is it mostly scheme-related?
I'd be interested too.
One thing that is coming across this year--and remember, coaches can learn from experience over the years too--is how the right combinations of pieces work better when combined with, well, the right combinations.
Chung is fine when allowed to play his role and not have to move beyond it. I think Collins' versatility allows a lot of guys to focus on areas of core competencies--it may begin there. It seems that as he's blossomed, a lot of role players are suddenly getting it done to a new degree.