Dehere said:
Novice opinion here but it seems like US soccer might benefit from having one dominant MLS team that would attract much of the USMNT talent, like a lesser version of Bayern, where that core group would play a league schedule, a champions league schedule, and an international schedule together year after year. The Bayern players who also play on the German national team might play 60 matches a year together. But my understanding of the MLS model is that no one team will ever be able to outspend the others that way, and if competitive balance is the priority I don't know how the league will ever greatly benefit the national team.
It seems like there's an assumption among American sports fans - not soccer diehards but fans generally - that it's inevitable and only a matter of time until the US excels at the very highest level of men's soccer but it seems to me that we may have gone as far as we can under our current soccer infrastructure. It seems possible that this is about as good as US soccer will be in my lifetime, excepting maybe a one-time deep run in the WC when it is again played in the US. Maybe that's too negative and I'd like to believe otherwise.
I completely agree that any sense of inevitability around the rise of American soccer should be viewed with skepticism. Inertia isn't going to carry the day. Plus, other countries are improving too. Standing still means you fall behind. However, I do think there's reason for some optimism at the moment.
MLS teams have collectively started to invest a lot of money in player development. They are going to have to lead the way in the US, just like professional clubs spearhead development in every other country in the world. As has been discussed here, when you have youth-only clubs, there are a lot of problems with the incentive structure of their business model, especially given the quirks of the US.
- All MLS teams have academies that stretch down to age 13 or so and many field younger teams as well and/or have partnerships with other local clubs
- Almost all of them are free of charge. DC United is one exception that I know of; unsurprising because they are the most financially hobbled in the league. That will probably change when their stadium is built.
- LA started a USL (third division minor league) franchise in 2014 as a stepping stone between the U18s and the first team. Seven other MLS teams (TOR, VAN, MTL, POR, SEA, RSL, NYRB) followed suit in 2015 and at least one more is starting one next year (ORL). This provides a much-needed stepping stone for players to advance from the U18s into the pro game -- signing with an MLS team and skipping the NCAA doesn't do much good if you sit on the bench for three years. Players need games and now they are getting them.
- RSL has established a residential academy in Casa Grande, AZ. Their U18s utterly smashed the USSDA competition this season, even without some top players who are with RSL's first team or USL team (Sebastian Saucedo, Justen Glad, Fito Ovalle) or who have signed overseas (Josh Doughty, Man United [he's Canadian]). They have been able to recruit players from across the country and have nabbed some players from underserved areas.
- LA is establishing a HS near their stadium to follow RSL's lead of building a residency option
- Columbus hired away a (supposedly) top youth coach from Valencia. DC has a guy with a long track record at Ajax. We need more hires like this, veteran development guys who can coach the coaches.
- A bunch of teams have affiliate clubs across the country that have allowed them to ID and recruit talent. FC Dallas has two players on their MLS roster who moved to Dallas from El Paso (Alejandro Zendejas) and Abingdon, VA (Coy Craft).
Much of this didn't exist 2-3 years ago.
After a slow, cautious, conservative buildup, teams are investing more money in development and they're being smarter about it. They still need to make better hires (too many inexperienced people in senior positions and too many nepotism/crony hires) and invest in youth coaching, but the pathways to the pros and options that kids have now are better than ever before. What I want to see is one team in MLS really reap the rewards of their academy in a way that forces other teams to follow suit to keep up. Teams like RSL, LA, NYRB, and Dallas seem like leading candidates. Seattle is also doing well and DC doesn't have a lot of quantity but they've produced two gems so far (Hamid & Najar).
I follow youth national teams pretty closely and I can tell you that the number of teenagers playing regularly in the pros is way higher than it has ever been before. Time will tell whether just that change alone makes a mark. Player development is a complicated challenge and traditionally the US has had struggles in all elements of it (early skills development, learning tactics in teenage years, the 18-21 "gap" inadequately served by both the NCAA and MLS).
Improvements in any of those categories would be huge for us. I think we're finally fixing the 18-21 "gap" by using the USL as a stepping stone. The earlier phases are hard to judge without being deeply embedded in the coaching scene (and even then, you'd probably only have a regional perspective).