Because he's a role player and was put in the best possible situation to succeed in Boston.
2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread
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Because he's a role player and was put in the best possible situation to succeed in Boston.
Yeah, I get the whole "let's not panic about the Cavs" thing, but without LeBron, they would barely be a playoff team.
With LeBron I had them as a 4/5-seed in the East following the Kyrie trade as they are not built for an 82-game regular season. I recall when I posted this there was pushback from more than one poster about them being built MORE toward the regular season which made my head explode. They still have time to add pieces, change coaches/philosophy, etc to get ready for the playoffs as the regular season really means little to them but from a pure talent standpoint they aren't ahead of Boston, Washington, or Toronto (in the same league yes, but not ahead)......which doesn't even get into Orlando's rise and the Pistons/Pacers putting it together.
Yup, this is why I think the whole "someone has to beat LeBron in the East first" trope is a classic case of really static thinking. This team is FAR worse than anything he's been part of since his first Cleveland run, when he didn't make it out of the East for three years running.
This is exactly what Brad does. Seems simple but it isn't.
Regarding the Cavs, we saw in game 1 of the season that Lebron has to expend serious effort in the 4th quarter to win games. No 14 year vet with 2 fulls seasons worth of postseason play over those 14 years can do that, nor does he want to do that. He wanted to spoil Kyrie's debut but he can't give that type of effort for 82 games.
The Cavs mostly miss Kyrie because they don't run an offense. Iso for Lebron, Iso for Kyrie was the offense. Now it's Iso for Lebron and what? Their numbers have to be worse this year than they were last when Lebron is on the bench. They look like a 45-48 win team at best this year. Postseason, different story but regular season will not be fun for Cavs fans as they wait for the King's shoe to drop and him to move elsewhere. Kyrie made the absolute right move in leaving.
Defensively the Cavs are slow, un-athletic and uninspired. Thompson has been touched by Kardashianite and isn't playing hard at all. Shumpert is a hard defensive player who isn't getting court time. D Wade, D Rose and JR Smith deserve each other.
The Cavs are a mess and there is nothing Lue can do. They should have a meeting. Hahahaha!
Still too soon for Cavs' post mortems, but Kliq and I were harping heavily on their serious structural flaws in in the offseason thread.
SRN:
Kliq:
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Looks like the Cavs are the frontrunners to land [Wade]. How many primary ballhandlers do they need?
IT
Rose
Calderon
Felder
Wade
LeBron
That's a lot of players who like or need to play on-ball. Only real shooters in the bunch are Calderon and IT, and they're old and banged up respectively, and can't defend anyone on a good day. If the deal goes through, I'd assume either Calderon or Felder (or Shumpert?) moves on. Weird roster makeup right now. I'm not sure I'd rank them ahead of SA, OKC or HOU.
IT
Rose
Calderon
Felder
Wade
LeBron
That's a lot of players who like or need to play on-ball. Only real shooters in the bunch are Calderon and IT, and they're old and banged up respectively, and can't defend anyone on a good day. If the deal goes through, I'd assume either Calderon or Felder (or Shumpert?) moves on. Weird roster makeup right now. I'm not sure I'd rank them ahead of SA, OKC or HOU.
Kliq:
The combination of the D-Rose and Wade moves is pretty baffling. Imo, LeBron is at his best when he is surrounded by shooters, and one other guy to do the dirty work. A line-up of Irving, Smith, James, Love and Thompson was great because it gave LeBron three good shooters to throw his cross-court dimes to, and a guy that would rebound, set picks and defend the rim. Now James is working with two non-shooters, and to compensate for that they moved Thompson out of the starting lineup to slide another shooter (Crowder or Korver) in and are now playing Love out of position. How is that better? They just became a lot easier to defend because you don't have to respect shooting from two players who normally play a shooting-based position. Maybe you snag one of Wade and Rose, but certainly not both. It seems like they signed Rose and didn't realize Wade was going to be available, but when he was bought out, they decided to bring him on board, regardless of fit.
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They're certainly deeper #1-12, but barring a miraculous return to full health by IT (and a quick study of the Cavs systems, etc.) I feel their top 3-4 has taken a step back.
Who's even their #2 guy right now? I would have said Kevin Love — I think it's already somewhat problematic when your #2 guy is Kevin Love, but thought that maybe with the departure of Kyrie, he might take a step forward by regaining some of the playmaking/initiating duties that made him such an effective player in Minnesota. The Minnesota Kevin Love is not a bad #2. But now that they've glutted themselves with not one but three ball-dominant initiators (Rose, Wade, IT) the chances of him significantly expanding his playmaking are pretty much nil, and he'll be mostly reduced to a floor-spacing stretch 5.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the floor, they'll be playing to Love's weaknesses by asking him to be their primary rim defender. And I'm not sure their smallish 3-4 of Crowder and LeBron have the length or shotblocking chops to give him enough help there. Blocked shots aren't everything, but for a quick and dirty comparison: KD and Draymond helped out their centers last year by combining for 205 blocks in ~4500 minutes. LeBron and Crowder combined for 67 blocks in ~5000 minutes.
I see a potential step back on both ends of the floor for them, with a near-certain step back in terms of overall chemistry, which was one of their biggest strengths last year. Last year's LeBron-Kyrie-Love-TT-Smith core had developed a great synergy over three seasons that made them fairly bulletproof against Eastern competition. Now that's gone, JR is already grumbling about being benched, Shumpert wants out, Love has to be wondering where his touches come from between Wade, Rose and LeBron, etc. They may get the chemistry right by the end of the season, but that doesn't always happen (viz. 2011 Heat). Also, by the end of season, the aging legs of 33-year-old LeBron and 36-year-old Wade will be eight months older than they are now.
Sure, they'll be favorites to make the Finals, barring something calamitous, but I think they'll be less prohibitive favorites than they were last year, and will have a tougher slog getting there (not saying much given last year's cakewalk, but still).
Who's even their #2 guy right now? I would have said Kevin Love — I think it's already somewhat problematic when your #2 guy is Kevin Love, but thought that maybe with the departure of Kyrie, he might take a step forward by regaining some of the playmaking/initiating duties that made him such an effective player in Minnesota. The Minnesota Kevin Love is not a bad #2. But now that they've glutted themselves with not one but three ball-dominant initiators (Rose, Wade, IT) the chances of him significantly expanding his playmaking are pretty much nil, and he'll be mostly reduced to a floor-spacing stretch 5.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the floor, they'll be playing to Love's weaknesses by asking him to be their primary rim defender. And I'm not sure their smallish 3-4 of Crowder and LeBron have the length or shotblocking chops to give him enough help there. Blocked shots aren't everything, but for a quick and dirty comparison: KD and Draymond helped out their centers last year by combining for 205 blocks in ~4500 minutes. LeBron and Crowder combined for 67 blocks in ~5000 minutes.
I see a potential step back on both ends of the floor for them, with a near-certain step back in terms of overall chemistry, which was one of their biggest strengths last year. Last year's LeBron-Kyrie-Love-TT-Smith core had developed a great synergy over three seasons that made them fairly bulletproof against Eastern competition. Now that's gone, JR is already grumbling about being benched, Shumpert wants out, Love has to be wondering where his touches come from between Wade, Rose and LeBron, etc. They may get the chemistry right by the end of the season, but that doesn't always happen (viz. 2011 Heat). Also, by the end of season, the aging legs of 33-year-old LeBron and 36-year-old Wade will be eight months older than they are now.
Sure, they'll be favorites to make the Finals, barring something calamitous, but I think they'll be less prohibitive favorites than they were last year, and will have a tougher slog getting there (not saying much given last year's cakewalk, but still).
SRN:
The "who's their #2 guy?" question remains for me. I almost feel like it may be Jae Crowder when you factor in both ends of the floor (which is why I was pissed the Cs coughed him up so easily), but that to me is the core problem: they seem stacked with specialists who are fine as your #5-12 rotation guys, but light on guys who are dominant or multi-dimensional enough to be part of a championship Big 3 or Big 4.
After last season, I felt that the Cavs' biggest hope for a significant jump forward came from either (1) flipping Love for Paul George (which apparently was scarily close to happening, till Griffin walked out); and/or (2) the small-but-real chance that 25 y.o. Kyrie's elite shooting ability gave him some untapped 2014 Steph Curry potential, given a bit more usage (Curry was also 25-26 when he made his big leap). Fwiw, Cavs fans had this same hope.
With those two ships sailed, I feel like all their moves mostly amount to deck-chair-shuffling that I'm not sure gets them back to same level they were at.
After last season, I felt that the Cavs' biggest hope for a significant jump forward came from either (1) flipping Love for Paul George (which apparently was scarily close to happening, till Griffin walked out); and/or (2) the small-but-real chance that 25 y.o. Kyrie's elite shooting ability gave him some untapped 2014 Steph Curry potential, given a bit more usage (Curry was also 25-26 when he made his big leap). Fwiw, Cavs fans had this same hope.
With those two ships sailed, I feel like all their moves mostly amount to deck-chair-shuffling that I'm not sure gets them back to same level they were at.
If before the season you had looked at the Cavs' last six games on the schedule — ORL, CHI, NYK, IND at home, NOP and BKN on the road — you would likely have predicted five Cavs blowouts, with possibly one close game in the bunch.
And ... you have would have been right! Five Cavs blowouts by their opponents, with one close game against the Bulls, the worst team in the NBA.
And ... you have would have been right! Five Cavs blowouts by their opponents, with one close game against the Bulls, the worst team in the NBA.
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I don't think Memphis is for real, and will be closer to a .500 team. Orlando has looked like a completely different team though. Vucevic has become a legit threat from 3 and has been playing great defense. They will regress because there's no way they shoot .442 from 3 all year, but they actually do have some decent shooters on the team. Last year, they were .328 from 3.
There's reason to believe Vucevic will hit 35%+ of his 3s this season, as he's been great from 16'+ his whole career. Aaron Gordon, not so much. I also think Elfrid Payton could go either way, depending on if Vucevic and Gordon are capable 3 point shooters. If they aren't, Payton will make spacing that much worse. If they are, it plays to Elfrid's strengths as he's decent inside and is a good rebounder. He also has the tools to be a good defender.
They are also 10-12 deep.
edit: Elfrid Payton with a 3 point shot is a scary thought.
So the guy you thought would be their #2 turns out to (probably) be mostly a product of the Brad Effect, and all the other problems are exactly the ones predicted. That's not good for Cleveland.
Speaking of guards who can't shoot, Emmanuel Mudiay is off to a good start this year too. 5/13 from 3 in PS, and 10/23 so far this year. Jamal Murray broke out of his funk too. So many young, deep teams in the league right now.
When the trade was being analyzed over the summer, someone said (Kevin O'Connor?) said that while Kyrie's stats might not have been the greatest, the reason he is such a special player is because he can score when everyone in the building is expecting him to score - like Game 4 against the Cs when LBJ was in foul trouble for the first time in his life - and there just aren't that many people in the NBA who can do that.
IT4 came close last year but as we saw in the playoffs, if a team (other than the Wizards, who don't play defense) really wanted to take him out of the game, they could do that.
I'm glad that Kyrie doesn't have to do that for the Cs but come playoff time, we will be happy to know that we have him in our pocket.
CLE is 25th in point differential at -6.9 per game, ahead of only SAC, CHI, DAL, PHO (skewed because of their terrible first three losses), and ATL. Surprisingly, MIN is next highest at -4.2.If before the season you had looked at the Cavs' last six games on the schedule — ORL, CHI, NYK, IND at home, NOP and BKN on the road — you would likely have predicted five Cavs blowouts, with possibly one close game in the bunch.
And ... you have would have been right! Five Cavs blowouts by their opponents, with one close game against the Bulls, the worst team in the NBA.
BOS is #2 at +9.2.
This team is going to be really good next year (hopefully they resign Smart).
Or like this. I still don't know how he got free (and I'm not sure Brogdon and Middleton--or Henson-- realized he had until a half second later).
Ugh. Bummer for them and him, but it could actually help them down the road if it forces them pick up a legitimately full-sized, defense-minded big man who can give them 10-15 minutes of rim D a game. Pretty sure there a few of those still lying around on the scrap heap (maybe even Edy Tavares, one of their last offseason cuts?)
Or if it forces them to cough up BKN 2018 and some salary ballast for Bledsoe and Tyson Chandler...
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Small sample alert, but by BB-Ref's Simple Rating System (which takes into account point differential and strength of schedule) the current top ten teams are:
1. LAC +10.37
2. GSW +9.70
3. OKC +9.25
4. POR +7.91
5. TOR +7.13
6. ORL +5.83
7. BOS +5.47
8. DET +4.79
9. UTA +4.71
10. MEM +4.66
And the bottom five are:
26. CLE -8.05 (!!!)
27. DAL -9.01
28. ATL -12.19
29. CHI -12.46
30. SAC -12.95
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018.html
1. LAC +10.37
2. GSW +9.70
3. OKC +9.25
4. POR +7.91
5. TOR +7.13
6. ORL +5.83
7. BOS +5.47
8. DET +4.79
9. UTA +4.71
10. MEM +4.66
And the bottom five are:
26. CLE -8.05 (!!!)
27. DAL -9.01
28. ATL -12.19
29. CHI -12.46
30. SAC -12.95
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018.html
I think it's too early for them to make a panic move. At this point, we don't know what teams will be selling off players come February.
If I were a Cleveland fan I'd be very, very concerned about their D and what it means for both the regular season and postseason, but it's way too early to throw dirt on their grave. They need to figure out rotations and how they're going to use their role players but I'd expect that the outlook on this team will be much different by the 1/4 season mark. I'd still take them as the prohibitive favorite in the East even with what we've seen so far.
This falls in line with my criticism of some Celtics takes from last year about us "needing a rebounder." Sure we needed a rebounder and Cleveland needs some size but at what cost if they are unable to compete at an NBA level? Edy Tavares hasn't shown any ability to compete at an NBA level in Atlanta or Cleveland and when you are a 7'3 center that nobody cares to sign even with expanded rosters well......that speaks volumes. If it was easy to acquire that 15 mpg rim protector/rebounder than everyone would be doing it. Ainge did well this offseason with Baynes on a ridiculously cheap contract for a proven role player and Theis on his value 2-year deal.
I'm an Orlando believer (or at least I bet a decent chunk of change at 73:1 for them to win their division), but their shooters are basically the same as last year. It's just this year they're all going in. It's certainly possible everyone has had a breakout, but it's not like they brought in Kyle Korver and Kelly Olynyk or something. It's mostly existing guys all draining it from outside now.
Don't get me wrong, I think there's probably some real improvement there, but the fact that there hasn't been much roster turnover in that respect is a warning sign.
Windhorst was on the Lowe Post today and talked about how during the first week of training camp the Cavs seemed really motivated to avenge their finals loss and were in good spirits as a team. Then Dwyane Wade came in and threw everything out of whack; he said Lue didn't want to start Wade but had to because of "chemistry" which then disenchanted JR Smith who has been terrible.
I totally agree with your basic point — finding a useful player who doesn't suck is not nearly as easy as finding a player who checks a box of specific skill. But aren't the Cs' additions of Baynes and Theis early evidence that adding a cheap, readily available "defender/rebounder" or two (who outside of those skills are not NBA players) can be a big plus? You're probably right that Tavares is not that guy for Cleveland, but that doesn't mean there are no Baynes or Theis facsimiles still out there looking for jobs.
My point is that if the Cavs are smart/lucky enough to land the right one, integrate him into the Cavs' system while TT recuperates, and then cut one of their eight zillion surplus PGs when TT gets back, it could end up being a net plus for the roster, which is currently woefully understaffed in tough defenders and rim protectors.
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Yeah, but guys like Fournier and Augustin were way below their norms last year and even a return to form makes a drastic difference. Those players don't have to have break out years. They also added Speights and Simmons. It's really all on Gordon and Vucevic being acceptable 3 point shooters.
Vaguely on topic, the NBA is dumb if they don't find some way to integrate a "Battle of the Aaron Twins" into this year's All-Star festivities...
No that isn't what I pointing to at all. These guys ARE available in the offseason even on the cheap once the backup big market dries up which it did fast and furiously this year (otherwise we never get Baynes on such a steal of a deal) however it is rare to ever find a big sitting at home this time of year who can compete in NBA basketball. The guys who have been signed mid-season in recent years are the Joel Anthony types and those guys were only for end of bench insurance.....not to actually contribute unless an injured forced playing time.
The guys available to the Cavs that I can think of who didn't latch on this season are Lavoy Allen (horrific last year in Indiana), Spencer Hawes (whose political views don't fit well with an NBA locker room), Kris Humphries (awful in recent years), David Lee, Thomas Robinson, maybe Emeka Okafor. I mean there aren't any hints of finding these guys off the heap in mid-season, it's rare unless it's a recently retired ring chaser like a PJ Brown or Chris Andersen a few years ago in Miami.......if they had anything left in the tank they would have made someones 15-man roster out of camp.
Perhaps, but they still have only faced two teams that will likely miss the playoffs (NYK and SAC).
Three if you count the cruddy, #26-ranked Cavs.
In fairness, though, in that game the Cs looked totally shellshocked for about 15-20 minutes of game time after the Hayward injury, during which they fell into an 18-point hole. When they came out after halftime, they pretty much kicked the Cavs' asses up and down the floor for 24 minutes. Further proof that Brad Stevens is a wizard. If it weren't for Spazz Derrick Rose making a prayer three at the end of the 3rd and a couple of gift FTs in the 4th, the Cs win that game and are now 7-1.
In the it's early department: Russell Westbrook is averaging 15.4 FGA a game, 8.6 less than last year. It's also the least amount of FGA per game since his 2nd season in the NBA, back in 09/10. Significantly less usage, too. Shows you what teammates can do.
Carmelo is looking really good in his role on this team where he only has to worry about scoring the ball where as with the Knicks he was often the prime facilitator as well. His 3FG% through 7 games is the highest of his career and in the games I've seen he is getting better looks than he ever did in New York.
Westbrook is shooting a career high in FG% and 3pt% himself, which could be because of better shot selection. Or ya know, SSS. At what point do we get past that issue anyway? 20 games?
Heh. Just noticed not only are the Magic shooting a league leading .442 from 3, they are also holding teams to a league leading .283. The Celtics are 2nd at .312.
The Rockets are on pace to become the only team ever to shoot more 3s than 2s in a season, with 54.1% of their shots from beyond the arc. They are taking 11.5 more 3's than the 2nd place team, GS. They are only shooting .314 from 3 and are still 6-3. Wait until their shots start falling.
The Rockets are on pace to become the only team ever to shoot more 3s than 2s in a season, with 54.1% of their shots from beyond the arc. They are taking 11.5 more 3's than the 2nd place team, GS. They are only shooting .314 from 3 and are still 6-3. Wait until their shots start falling.
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This is were traditional scouting or eye tests are useful to use in conjunction with the stats. There is evidence of Carmelo having much cleaner looks than he's had in New York as well as Westbrook forcing fewer shots because he now has other scorers he trusts in George and Carmelo rather than his kickout going to Roberson in which case he recognized last year that forcing it himself was the better option.
I just mentioned in the other thread that the Celtics close out much better on perimeter shooters than they did last year. If you only look at the stats you can easily dismiss it as a small sample however I'll be surprised if we aren't among the better teams at defending the 3-point shot by the end of the season.
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112-92 Warriors, 39-point turnaround. Same story as the WCF: the Spurs without Kawhi just don't have enough offensive firepower to hang with the Ws when they decide to tighten the defensive screws.
The Warriors might not want to keep digging 20-point holes against the Spurs, though. With a healthy Kawhi, the Spurs aren't nearly as forgiving. Somewhat concerning we've still heard no timetable on him — announcers today quoted Pop as saying something like, "maybe next week, maybe not for a while..."
The Warriors might not want to keep digging 20-point holes against the Spurs, though. With a healthy Kawhi, the Spurs aren't nearly as forgiving. Somewhat concerning we've still heard no timetable on him — announcers today quoted Pop as saying something like, "maybe next week, maybe not for a while..."
Portland up 41-25 after 1. McCollum is a ridiculously good offensive player. Pat Connaughton has a nice shot too. Nurkic is a really good defensive player.
Kyle Kuzma is looking like a steal.
Kyle Kuzma is looking like a steal.
He's added that 16' jump shot the last 2 years and has been shooting it more this season. Makes you wonder if the 3 point shot is coming next year. To date though, he's been a pretty terrible offensive player his whole career. I never got the knock on him being a good offensive player but a bad defensive one. The stats say otherwise.
Didn't see the first. Nurkic got smoked over and over and over by Lopez in the second
HELP WANTED:
Uber, a global transportation technology company, will be interviewing for the position of VP of Media Advertising. In addition to the requirements listed below, one must promise to never film and/or utilize a commercial with Lonzo Ball and/or Kyle Kuzma in it.
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Uber, a global transportation technology company, will be interviewing for the position of VP of Media Advertising. In addition to the requirements listed below, one must promise to never film and/or utilize a commercial with Lonzo Ball and/or Kyle Kuzma in it.
Serious inquiries only.
