Gordon was freed to shoot by Harden crashing into Embiid, otherwise that game ends with Joel swatting away that shot.
2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread
- Thread starter DeJesus Built My Hotrod
- Start date
Curry was 8/8 from the charity stripe last night. That makes him 47/47 to start the season. The record appears to be 97 straight (wow), so doubtful he'll get there. Also Golden State surprised to the downside again last night (I think the line had them by 7 and a half points, no?) by winning only by five.
Meanwhile Jordan Bell seems to be doing well in limited minutes, including that highlight-reel self-feeding dunk he made. Though I imagine Kerr had a few words with him later about that, in private.
Meanwhile Jordan Bell seems to be doing well in limited minutes, including that highlight-reel self-feeding dunk he made. Though I imagine Kerr had a few words with him later about that, in private.
You may be correct about what would have happened but it really shouldn't have come down to that.
Since Embiid can pretty much get any shot any time he wants; I personally would have given the ball to him on one side, clear out, and see what HOU does in response.
So Suns win second game in a row after getting rid of Watson, holding UT to 88 points. Granted UT was playing second of back-to-back but just looking at points against, it's remarkable how quickly things change. Sometimes it is coaching.
For example, apparently even Booker is trying harder on defense and Bender was a "defensive menace." It's a culture Triano is trying to develop. From the first linked article:
For example, apparently even Booker is trying harder on defense and Bender was a "defensive menace." It's a culture Triano is trying to develop. From the first linked article:
So does a coach who will bench players when they aren’t putting the work in defensively. After Marquese Chriss didn’t get back down the floor on an early third-quarter possession Triano immediately subbed him out for Dragan Bender.
“I don’t have a substitution pattern,” Triano said. “If you play and get tired, you’ll come out. Or if you play and don’t give me effort, you’re going to come out. … You want to stay in the game, play defense and work hard.”
“I don’t have a substitution pattern,” Triano said. “If you play and get tired, you’ll come out. Or if you play and don’t give me effort, you’re going to come out. … You want to stay in the game, play defense and work hard.”
As noted on twitter a few days ago, the Suns were by far the unluckiest team in opposing 3PT% when Watson was fired (to the tune of allowing an extra 9.5 points per 100 possessions from just bad luck/variance there).
maybe. or maybe when the opponent is up 30 or you don't D up at all the opponent gets more relaxed shooting.
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Do you know how they calculated this? Is it just 3P FG% versus expected or do they take defense into account in some way?
I ask because if you looked at some of the clips of Lonzo Ball playing against the Suns, the Suns were basically not playing any defense at the time. He had at least two wide open 3P shots with no one within 5 feet of him. Just wondering how this stat would take poor defense into account.
But yeah, as a team the Supervillains have been pretty meh through five games. Last night was basically a replay of their home opener v the Rockets, where they led by double digits throughout, let the other team stick around, then lost focus in the last quarter and started throwing the ball all over the place on O and breaking down defensively. Raps led 112-107 with the ball and 1:37 left; then the Ws finally got their sh*t together and closed with a 10-0 run (rather like the Rockets v. Sixers) to avoid their first back-to-back regular season home losses in like a zillion years.
Meanwhile, big props to the Raps for battling throughout. One-game sample overreaction alert, but I think I may like this iteration of the Casey/Lowry/DeRozan Raps a bit more than any of the last few. Siakam looks like a legit player; Anunoby and Wright add length and athleticism; CJ Miles was a low-key great addition; and wow, Jakob Poeltl in his sophomore season looks like a straight stud. He wrecked the Ws death lineups inside and on the glass last night: 12 points and 14 rebounds (11 offensive!) in 27 minutes.
It's not really an excuse, but it must be really hard for the Ws to care about the regular season at all since they basically know that, if they stay healthy, they can just turn it on come playoff time and be favored over anyone more or less. I suspect if 2018 rolls around and it's still a question as whether Golden State will be able to get the #1 seed, they'll turn it up five or six notches.
That's my twitter handle, so I do have some idea, yes. It's just opposing 3PT% vs. league average. It is based on research such as this showing that opposing 3PT% is not meaningfully predictive of itself. The best teams in opposing 3PT% over the first half will tend to regress to league average in the second half, and the worst teams in opposing 3PT% will likewise regress to league average.
This is not the same thing as saying three-point defense doesn't exist by the way - team do vary substantially and predictably in allowing three point attempts in the first place. Good three point defense is largely not allowing those looks in the first place. Poor defense like you mention would partially be captured in those in extra three point attempts allowed by the Suns.
I would analogize this to pitcher BABIP, where more granular data (such groundball percentage and infield fly rate) allows us to predict pitchers within a range of BABIP (say .280 to .305), but very large samples are needed to make those predictions, and raw BABIP by itself isn't much help.
Put another way, I'm sure opposing 3PT% isn't actually pure random, but I don't think merely having a bad opposing 3PT% over 3, 4, 5, or 40 games tells you very much about where it will be for the rest of the year. As such, without doing a more granular analysis, your best bet in projecting opposing 3PT% is to peg it to essentially league average.
What are the numbers for contested vs uncontested 3-pointers? This was not simply luck. NBA players will make uncontested 3-pointers at a pretty remarkable rate compared to contested shots.
These first 3 Phoenix games were clearly an anomaly from standard defensive resistance variance over the course of a game. Their defensive resistance on perimeter shots in these games were equivalent to a pitcher lobbing a straight pitch over the plate at 85mph resulting in a higher BABIP.
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Jae Crowder putting up 8/3/1 and last played any 4th quarter minutes 3 games ago in garbage time. But RPM.
I don't doubt that uncontested shots are more likely to go in, nor am I debating whether Phoenix gave up a large number of uncontested threes over their first three games. The point is that that may not be especially predictive of future results by itself (if it were, then you would likely see an R^2 of higher than 0.01 between first half and second half opposing 3PT% splits). I mean, it's possible they're such an outlier that no other teams are relevant, but I would be hesitant to conclude that on the basis of those first three games.
I saw GSW -12, which seemed high, considering...
The Raptors are really tough, holy shit. I agree with everything here. Ibaka, Lowry, DeRozan are all really good players, but the young guys -- Siakam, Anunoby, and Poeltl -- are humongous, relentless, athletic, well-coached. I didn't realize they figured out how to field a defensive and rebounding terror lineup full of next-gen Iguodala clones.
Not all that shocking, but last year's rookie class as a whole is playing much better this year. Seems a few players have taken a step forward. Add in this year's rookie class performance so far, and there's a lot of young, promising talent in the league.
The ones I really forgot were Valanciunas and Nogueira, both huge, talented and efficient young bigs who were out with (mild) injuries last night.
The Ws had made JaVale inactive, presumably thinking that with those two players out he wouldn't be necessary, and the Raps still had more than enough length to bother them.
Meanwhile, another very solid outing by Jordan Bell, who was the Ws' first big off the bench, and now has 24 points (on 12-14 fg), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks in his 40 NBA minutes.
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Well, they were last in the league in 3pt% against in each of the last two years. That's a pretty sustained stretch of bad luck.
And the Spurs, Warriors and Celtics have been 3 of the top 4 in each of the last two years.
Every Raptors GM has to consider whether his acquisitions will want to stay abroad in the exotic land of O Canada. Tronna goes over very well with Euros and Africans, but not so well with Americans. Masai knows his situation.
They really are fun, and that was a hell of a game -- semi-playoff intensity.
I have full respect for CP3, but the Clippers are a lot more fun without him. I think it's maybe just maybe possible at the end of the year they'll be better without him, too, but that depends on a lot of factors: does Milos come back, does Beverly hold up under heavy minutes if Milos doesn't come back, does CP3's absence give space for Griffin to emerge as a true star, does losing CP3 mean that Griffin playing the sort of point-forward he was tonight can make the Clippers a faster, more efficient team, and...of course, is CP3's injury part of his aging process portending a decline.
Lots of questions that can't be answered yet, but can say that was a great game.
edit to add: they're partly more fun because both CP3 and Griffin used to complain to the refs after every call that didn't go their way in a way that made them very unlikeable. Griffin seems to have stopped that, not really sure if that's cuz CP3 left or he had already stopped last year.
I have full respect for CP3, but the Clippers are a lot more fun without him. I think it's maybe just maybe possible at the end of the year they'll be better without him, too, but that depends on a lot of factors: does Milos come back, does Beverly hold up under heavy minutes if Milos doesn't come back, does CP3's absence give space for Griffin to emerge as a true star, does losing CP3 mean that Griffin playing the sort of point-forward he was tonight can make the Clippers a faster, more efficient team, and...of course, is CP3's injury part of his aging process portending a decline.
Lots of questions that can't be answered yet, but can say that was a great game.
edit to add: they're partly more fun because both CP3 and Griffin used to complain to the refs after every call that didn't go their way in a way that made them very unlikeable. Griffin seems to have stopped that, not really sure if that's cuz CP3 left or he had already stopped last year.
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My goodness. Don't sleep on Boogie
To add context, in Sacto tonight, Boogie put up 41 points (14-25 including 3-5 from deep) and 23 boards in the Pels 114-106 victory over the Hield-Jacksons. I really want to see him mature and lead a team in the playoffs some day soon.
To add context, in Sacto tonight, Boogie put up 41 points (14-25 including 3-5 from deep) and 23 boards in the Pels 114-106 victory over the Hield-Jacksons. I really want to see him mature and lead a team in the playoffs some day soon.
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Tristan Thompson is going back into the starting lineup and Crowder will be coming off the bench for at least the next few games.
It's the first 40/20/5 game in the NBA since Webber in '01, and the first 40/20/5 game ever with 3+ 3's.
For those still questioning this trade imagine how a Cavs fan feels on this return for Kyrie.......an injured expiring contract, a newly benched player, an end of bench big, and the first round pick of a team currently tied for 1st in the division.
Orlando is up 25 on the Spurs with about 3 minutes in the half? I no longer understand the NBA.
Blowout notwithstanding, the Magic are a conference leading 3-1 heading into tonights game including a 20-point wins at Cleveland. Apparently this isn't last years Magic team.
Yeah, if IT4 doesn't play or is a fraction of his former self (or he needs 2+ months to get back into basketball form) and the Nets pick isn't even in the lottery, that's pretty ugly. I think the jury is still out on Zizic though. He may end up being a 25 minute big. He's a decent rebounder and has shown the ability to block shots. There's always room in the NBA for an Aron Baynes. I guess it depends on what you mean by end of bench big though.
When Magic beat BRK, Aaron Gordon went for 41 points, including 5/5 on 3P shots(first person to do that in Magic history). He was shooting 85% from 3P land this season before this game.
Apparently, Vucevic, Gordon, and Fournier are 5, 6, and 7 in BPM (before this game).
Apparently, Vucevic, Gordon, and Fournier are 5, 6, and 7 in BPM (before this game).
I am a Zizic guy and included "end of bench" big in that this is how most Cavs fans who are hopeful for a championship this year would view the player today. Plus, it fit my narrative.
Yep. All that factored into my comment. And this is not a complaint by the way. The NBA has had an amazing first two weeks. Tons of surprises, lots of young players stepping up, upsets. It is as good as it has ever been in my opinion.
EDIT: The Nets are a “must watch” team, for goodness sakes.
Magic 95, Spurs 62 through 3 quarters.
Who was that doofus who was just saying the Spurs looked like the best team in the league...?
Who was that doofus who was just saying the Spurs looked like the best team in the league...?
The Spurs have looked good up until today. They're also still playing without Kawhi.
Halfway through the 2nd quarter in the OKC/Minn game and Westbrook has only taken 2 shots and made both. That will last... not. It will be interesting to see if he can build upon that .343 he shot last year from 3 though. If he does, ugh.
Halfway through the 2nd quarter in the OKC/Minn game and Westbrook has only taken 2 shots and made both. That will last... not. It will be interesting to see if he can build upon that .343 he shot last year from 3 though. If he does, ugh.
Knicks are pulling away from the Nets and are up 16 in the 3rd, in large part due to Porzingis going off. He's well on his way to another 30 point game and the Knicks look like they'll finally win a game, being the last team this season to do so. Granted, they've played less games than anyone else.
I also wonder if Howard or Jordan will make a run at 20 rpg this year. I doubt it, but maybe Rodman is in play.
I also wonder if Howard or Jordan will make a run at 20 rpg this year. I doubt it, but maybe Rodman is in play.
Just to be clear, that doofus was me.
And yeah, the no Kawhi part is a huge asterisk. When he comes back, I still think they have a very strong claim to #2 team in the league.
And yeah, the no Kawhi part is a huge asterisk. When he comes back, I still think they have a very strong claim to #2 team in the league.
Looks like Oubre Jr has taken another step forward this year. That makes the Wizards 7 deep. They're currently up 28-20 in the first against the Warriors with 2 minutes left.
Lakers up 26-19 at the end of the first. Ball is 1-2 with 2 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal. ESPN has been pushing for him to get a triple double. If he does so in his next 11 games, he'll be the youngest ever. Smith and Fox are younger than Ball though, and also could possibly put up a triple double.
edit: I guess Oubre wasn't that bad last year. Most of Oubre's improvement is just getting more minutes.
Lakers up 26-19 at the end of the first. Ball is 1-2 with 2 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal. ESPN has been pushing for him to get a triple double. If he does so in his next 11 games, he'll be the youngest ever. Smith and Fox are younger than Ball though, and also could possibly put up a triple double.
edit: I guess Oubre wasn't that bad last year. Most of Oubre's improvement is just getting more minutes.
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He is much improved over last season as he is now playing better against starters this year than he did versus second units last season. The primary difference I see is his improved strength, confidence, and decisiveness shooting the ball.
What is Steve Kerr wearing. It looks like a leather blazer with a flower lei lapel. Is it for charity?
First real NBA fight I've seen in a while
Edit: need replay. It's Beal and Green wrasslin/ no punches but Beal tried a hip toss but Green got the body lock takedown.
Beal might really take a lot of drugs, I thought that last year
Edit: need replay. It's Beal and Green wrasslin/ no punches but Beal tried a hip toss but Green got the body lock takedown.
Beal might really take a lot of drugs, I thought that last year
Is it really a fight when no punches are thrown? It was actually more Beal than Draymond imo.