2017 MLB HOF ballot released

[Spacemans Bong]

Most guys between 60-70 are in, once you control for active/not-yet-eligible/steroid guys I'm pretty sure would be in otherwise. I think the Hall of Fame's borderline is substantially south of 70. It's arguably in the 50s, because most guys over 55 are in. To me, that's the borderline, where more people are out than in.

I don't think everybody in Face's list of people not in the Hall should be in, but I think most should. Trammell and Whitaker are two of the Hall's greatest mistakes.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Pudge Rodriguez is starting to drop now that more ballots are in. Down to 78.4

 

[Bowlerman9]

Pudge Rodriguez is starting to drop now that more ballots are in. Down to 78.4

Given the glut of talent currently on the ballot, along with the 10 vote limit, it would be a shame if only 2 people get in and we have Hoffman, Vlad, and Pudge all sitting between 70% and 74.9% heading into next year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Given the glut of talent currently on the ballot, along with the 10 vote limit, it would be a shame if only 2 people get in and we have Hoffman, Vlad, and Pudge all sitting between 70% and 74.9% heading into next year.

Agreed, especially since Pudge should be a first-ballot HoFer

 

[axx]

Given the glut of talent currently on the ballot, along with the 10 vote limit, it would be a shame if only 2 people get in and we have Hoffman, Vlad, and Pudge all sitting between 70% and 74.9% heading into next year.

Considering that there's only going to be one new serious candidate next year, it's not a problem really.

 

[Bowlerman9]

Considering that there's only going to be one new serious candidate next year, it's not a problem really.

Which one of Chipper, Thome, and Rolen are you referring to?

There are two clear HoFers in Chipper and Thome and a borderline one in Rolen. Not to mention the fact that many writers think there are more than 10 deserving people currently on the ballot (with guys like Mussina, Schilling and Edgar as 11th or 12th on a few people's ballot), having only 2 get in this year wouldn't help the situation.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Do people here see Manny ever getting in? I know he had the steroid shit, but he was universally considered one of the best pure RHH to play the game.

 

[Bowlerman9]

Do people here see Manny ever getting in? I know he had the steroid shit, but he was universally considered one of the best pure RHH to play the game.

Really hard to say at this point whether is is Bonds/Clemens (started off weak, gaining votes every year) or Palmeiro (off the ballot in a few years). IMO, the two positive tests put him closer to Palmeiro as far as the mindset of the voters go.

 

[axx]

Which one of Chipper, Thome, and Rolen are you referring to?

Chipper. You really think Thome is a HoF? He seems to be more in the Sheffield "yeah he was a good hitter, but...".

 

[Bowlerman9]

Chipper. You really think Thome is a HoF? He seems to be more in the Sheffield "yeah he was a good hitter, but...".

Thome: 612 HR, 956 OPS, 147 OPS+, 72.9 bWAR; no steroid allegations
Sheffield: 509 HR, 907 OPS, 140 OPS+. 60.3 bWAR; tons of steroid allegations (plus "proof" in Game of Shadows)

Thome is absolutely a HoFer. Probably first or second ballot, too.

 

[InstaFace]

Only on SoSH could we start having an argument about the 2018 HOF ballot before the 2017 one is in. I love it.

Yeah, whatever your feelings about his defense or the slow start to his career or any other knocks you might have on him, the man has 612 HRs, 7th all-time, without a whisp of steroid rumors about him. The case against him amounts to "he played in the steroid era". He is the very template of the kind of hitter the BBWAA puts in on the first or second ballot.

 

[Plympton91]

Only on SoSH could we start having an argument about the 2018 HOF ballot before the 2017 one is in. I love it.

Yeah, whatever your feelings about his defense or the slow start to his career or any other knocks you might have on him, the man has 612 HRs, 7th all-time, without a whisp of steroid rumors about him. The case against him amounts to "he played in the steroid era". He is the very template of the kind of hitter the BBWAA puts in on the first or second ballot.

Plus, he needs to go in before David Ortiz can, so I want him in quickly.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Pudge up to 78.6 now with a few more ballots collected. It's looking like a three-man class with Hoffman as a dark horse candidate to sneak in by a few votes as the Ringo of the group, so to speak. (With all due respect.)

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

To the WAR discussion above, I agree that it shouldn't be the WAR HoF, but I think it's important to acknowledge the change going on in the voting populace. As the old guard falls off to give way to new blood, I think advanced metrics will take on more and more weight amongst the community. I think we'll get far less 'he doesn't feel like a HoFer' type shit and players like Whitaker and Trammel would likely not fall off the ballot in the future climate. I'm cautiously optimistic that we are going to start seeing bigger classes every year.

 

[InstaFace]

Results will be announced at 6pm tonight on the MLB Network. A final tracker summary, with 235 ballots (55.6%) known:

Tim Raines, 88.8% (10th & last, +29)
Jeff Bagwell, 88.0% (7th, +21)
Ivan Rodriguez, 78.9% (1st)
---
Trevor Hoffman, 72.7% (2nd, +21)
Vlad Guerrero, 71.5% (1st)
Edgar Martinez, 65.3% (8th, +42)
Barry Bonds, 64.0% (5th, +22)
Roger Clemens, 63.2% (5th, +23)
Mike Mussina, 59.1% (4th, +22)
Curt Schilling, 50.8% (5th, -12)
---
Lee Smith, 30.2% (15th & last, +4)
Manny Ramirez, 24.8% (1st)
Larry Walker, 23.1% (7th, +14)
Fred McGriff, 16.1% (8th, -1)
Jeff Kent, 16.5% (4th, -2)
Gary Sheffield, 11.6% (3rd, 0)
Billy Wagner, 10.7% (2nd, +4)
Sammy Sosa, 9.5% (5th, +3)

(everyone else is under 5%, though Posada is at 10 votes (4.1%) and would need 12 more to stick)

Vlad has slipped behind Hoffman. Edgar has somehow gained *42* votes from last year, a huge surge, though behind his pace earlier in the month. Someone named John Hickey joins Jon Heyman in voting for Bonds but not for Clemens. Lee Smith and Jeff Kent join Hoffman as the only candidates to have gained share since last update. Votes per ballot has fallen from ~8.7 to 8.50 now.

 

[moondog80]

Pudge up to 78.6 now with a few more ballots collected. It's looking like a three-man class with Hoffman as a dark horse candidate to sneak in by a few votes as the Ringo of the group, so to speak. (With all due respect.)

Only 55% of ballots in and almost everyone performs worse on the non-public ballots. Pudges need 70.5% on the non-public ballots to get in, so he can survive an 8.1% drop off. Last year Schilling, Raines, Edgar, Mussina, and Bagwell all had bigger public-nonpublic dropoffs. Most of the guys with small dropoffs either had small totals to start with -- Bonds and Clemens had small dropoffs but they're a difference category. Hoffman is the only other guy who had a lot of votes and didn't have a big dropoff (his totals went up for whatever reason). It'll be borderline but I'd guess he comes up short.



https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw

 

[jsinger121]

 

[InstaFace]

She couldn't spare Billy Wagner's throwaway vote for Manny Ramirez? (nevermind Bonds or Clemens)

 

[JohntheBaptist]

She obviously chose not to vote for confirmed steroid users.

 

[Ale Xander]

Do people here see Manny ever getting in? I know he had the steroid shit, but he was universally considered one of the best pure RHH to play the game.

Unfortunately, he's not getting in until Bonds and Vlad get in. And they have defense. And the latter I don't think has a steroid issue.

But I'm rooting for him more than anyone else.

Not looking good right now for the foreseeable future.

 

[RingoOSU]

Mussina and Schilling? Maybe she's a nazi.

 

[DJnVa]

Mussina and Schilling? Maybe she's a nazi.

Eh, even Costas said today that Schilling is a no doubt HOFer for him.

Really hoping Raines gets it.

 

[RingoOSU]

I was making a joke based on some crazy memory of Mike Mussina collecting nazi memorabilia but now I can't find anything on that. getting old sucks.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I was making a joke based on some crazy memory of Mike Mussina collecting nazi memorabilia but now I can't find anything on that. getting old sucks.

Pretty sure that was Schilling.

 

[E5 Yaz]

She treated Clemens worse than Schilling

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I was making a joke based on some crazy memory of Mike Mussina collecting nazi memorabilia but now I can't find anything on that. getting old sucks.

I think you're remembering that thing where Gammons heavily hinted at a player being a bigot and Rob Neyer outed it as Mussina based on the "evidence" Gammons did give.

 

[InstaFace]

She obviously chose not to vote for confirmed steroid users.

Obviously, but you'd hope the local-paper scribes could spare a thought for recent hometown heroes.

Perhaps this makes me naive but I've long believed that Manny used in 2009 and 2011 in order to try and get back onto the field, and not during his long run of brilliant, Hall-worthy success at hitting.

 

[RingoOSU]

I think you're remembering that thing where Gammons heavily hinted at a player being a bigot and Rob Neyer outed it as Mussina based on the "evidence" Gammons did give.

Ah. And we all now know it's Schilling.

 

[RingoOSU]

Pretty sure that was Schilling.

yeah I was thinking for some reason there were 2. JohntheBaptist's explanation makes sense.

 

[phrenile]

Bagwell, Raines, and Pudge in.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Bagwell, Raines and Pudge Rodriquez make it.

Good for Raines.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Bagwell, Raines and Rodriguez in. Hoffman misses by 5 votes.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

So the 2018 class Hoffman Vlad and...

 

[moondog80]

So the 2018 class Hoffman Vlad and...

Jones and Thome, right?

 

[phrenile]

 

[BoSox Rule]

Hoffman's not a Hall of Famer in my opinion but I wish he just went in this year to get him off the ballot because there is no way he misses next year.

 

[canderson]

Curt appears to have lost many votes.

 

[ifmanis5]

Curt appears to have lost many votes.

Yes, he was 52.3% last year.
Really happy for Raines, he was a great player. Can't believe it took so long to get him in.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Curt appears to have lost many votes.

Hmmm, who's the better pitcher, schilling of Hoffman. It's really hard to take the BBWAA seriously sometimes

 

[mauidano]

Hmmm, who's the better pitcher, schilling of Hoffman. It's really hard to take the BBWAA seriously sometimes

Obviously the dynamics of the voters are changing; less voters, new voters with a different perspective and attitude. Schill may make it but it will be awhile.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Hmmm, who's the better pitcher, schilling of Hoffman. It's really hard to take the BBWAA seriously sometimes

Two different positions, two different set of criteria.

Hoffman is the all time leader in a stat that, for better or worse, defines his position. Schilling can't make a claim like that.

 

[scottyno]

Hoffman's not a Hall of Famer in my opinion but I wish he just went in this year to get him off the ballot because there is no way he misses next year.

He should thank whoever created the saves stat. By basically every other measure Billy Wagner was clearly a better pitcher yet because of saves Hoffman got over 7 times as many votes and will get in for sure.

 

[moondog80]

Two different positions, two different set of criteria.

Hoffman is the all time leader in a stat that, for better or worse, defines his position. Schilling can't make a claim like that.

Your general point is correct, but Mariano is the all time saves leader.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Billy Wagner at 10.2% is downright criminal.

Glad Bagwell and Raines are in. And glad that Pudge wasn't kept out because of flimsy circumstantial evidence/rumors.

 

[canderson]

Hmmm, who's the better pitcher, schilling of Hoffman. It's really hard to take the BBWAA seriously sometimes

Tim Raines* is a HOFer but not Barry Bonds.

It's quite stupid indeed.

*I have zero beef with this, he is worthy

 

[hbk72777]

Two different positions, two different set of criteria.

Hoffman is the all time leader in a stat that, for better or worse, defines his position. Schilling can't make a claim like that.

But Schilling stepped up in big games, Hoffman choked. Hoffman was also buried in a market no one cared about, no stress

 

[Merkle's Boner]

What's the over/under on Manny's %?

25%?

Not a bad prediction. Actually surprised he got so much.

 

[mauf]

With each passing year, the likelihood that we have a PED user in the Hall of Fame goes up. I suspect that's the main factor driving the surge in support for Bonds and Clemens.

Glad to see Raines make it -- didn't think it would happen.

Can't believe I've reached the point where I'm actively rooting for G38 not to make it, to the point where I'm actually happy that Mussina has moved ahead of him in the queue. He's precisely the sort of guy who should be excluded on character grounds -- yes, Ty Cobb was a worse human being, but he was a far better ballplayer; the Hall would be incomplete without him. Curt Schilling? Not so much.

 

[lexrageorge]

I like the results; the 3 inductees are definitely deserving.

Most deserving of the remainder are Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, and Edgar. I realize the case for Schilling, but I'm OK if he stews around 40% until his final year of eligibility. Not a huge fan of Hoffman, but life is not always fair.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

If there were five qualified Hall of Famers on the ballot, Schilling stewing in purgatory would be an injustice. Jim Bunning was pretty reactionary and he had his hands on levers of real power as a Senator.

But there's 12-13 qualified players so time to pull out my sad trombone.



Phrasing.