2018 NFL Game Thread - Week 4

mauf

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1-2, might as well try to win.
If they were 10 yards further upfield, I’d agree. But barely across their own 40, how likely were the Colts to parlay a successful conversion into a game-winning FG?
 

dcmissle

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Somebody will be crunching numbers to prove that it was a wise decision — and maybe even establish a loss is better than a tie.
 

Ed Hillel

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If they were 10 yards further upfield, I’d agree. But barely across their own 40, how likely were the Colts to parlay a successful conversion into a game-winning FG?
I think like 40% to win if they convert.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Weird decision by the Colts. Even if they get that 1st down, the game more likely than not ends in a tie.
Bingo.

With 27 seconds and one TO you’ve best case got like 4 plays in all likelihood, and you’ll need 15-20 yards for a FGA.

A fake punt would’ve made more sense since you could bust 20 plus on one of those with the right look.
 

GregHarris

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It's say 60/40 to covert and 50 chance after that to win. However, if you punt it's a high 90% to tie
 

axx

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However, if you punt it's a high 90% to tie
100%, the Texans would have taken a knee I think. Unless it was shanked.

Colts would have needed like another 20 yards or so for the FG. Doable with no timeouts but not easy.
 

Ed Hillel

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So a 30 % chance to win. I wonder how much of the remaining 70% in loss and how much tie.
Probably 60ish percent of the remaining 70, so 42% real?

Though 60% convert on fourth and four seems high.

I bet overall it was somewhere around 40% tie and 30% each for win and loss. Maybe that’s even high, given no more timeouts. That’s a significant factor.
 

GregHarris

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Well I only say less than 100 for punt return and or block but yeah essentially 100%. So I guess if you are a coach and care about what's right for the team and record, you'd punt. A tie is not a bad outcome some think it is.
 

Soxy

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Oh, that’s right, they used it to try and draw them off. Pretty bleak, then, I agree.
It made it seem even more bizarre when they went for it. Why waste a TO trying to draw them offsides if you plan on going for it? You'll probably need that TO if you convert.
 

mauf

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I like the decision by Seattle to GFI, but you’ve got to put Wilson under center and make them defend the QB sneak.
 

Jnai

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Do we have a separate forum to discuss the end of the Colts game? What the fuck was that?
 

johnmd20

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What a pass and throw for Mayfield and Landry.

You haven't seen anything like that in Cleveland since Brian Sipe.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Announcers .. Yea, knee was down (on Cleveland 2 point conversion).

Camera pans away... Johnson had the football 2 feet in the end zone.

Announcers... Yea. That knee is down.
 

Marciano490

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I like the Raiders, but would love seeing Gruden banished with shame from football.
 

johnmd20

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My mother in law is the biggest sports fan I know. She lives in Cleveland. I met my wife in 2005. It is very fair to say I've never seen her this happy about the Browns. I think they had one season where they made a run at the playoffs(2007 with Derek Anderson?) but that was before the team was a laughingstock for a decade and my MiL was younger.

Anyway, it's really nice to see a Browns fan have something to cheer.
 

soxhop411

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If gruden wasn’t being paid a billion dollars to coach he would be fired before the end of this season