2019 Pats Defense: What Are We Witnessing?
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
From that Ringer article linked above:
“Their offense has given up the same number of touchdowns (three) as their defense.”
In other words, the opponents are as likely to score when the Patriots have the ball as when they have the ball.
“Their offense has given up the same number of touchdowns (three) as their defense.”
In other words, the opponents are as likely to score when the Patriots have the ball as when they have the ball.
Saw on Twitter today that the Jets scored zero points on offense in the two games against the Pats, the first time that has ever happened in the history of that Pats - Jets rivalry.
Remember when SOSH hated Stephon Gilmore:
View: https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1186305294957047808?s=20
Per @PFF, Jalen Ramsey has allowed 65+ receiving yards in coverage in three of his last four games.
Stephon Gilmore has allowed 65+ receiving yards in three of his last 30 games (incl. playoffs).
View: https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1186305294957047808?s=20
Per @PFF, Jalen Ramsey has allowed 65+ receiving yards in coverage in three of his last four games.
Stephon Gilmore has allowed 65+ receiving yards in three of his last 30 games (incl. playoffs).
Here's the opposing QBs passing line so far this season:
123-242 (50.8%), 1,209 yds, 5.0 y/a, 1 td, 18 int, 26 sacks for 170 yds, 35.6 rating
I don't care if every game was against third string QBs....those numbers are absolutely unfathomable.
123-242 (50.8%), 1,209 yds, 5.0 y/a, 1 td, 18 int, 26 sacks for 170 yds, 35.6 rating
I don't care if every game was against third string QBs....those numbers are absolutely unfathomable.
Check out the line when they cross midfield
21-73 (28.8%), 211 yards, 2.89 y/a, 0 td, 10 int, 9 sacks for 57 yards, 0.0 rating
Defense-and-ST Ledger update: only additions are the FG and PATs scored by the Pats last night, and the safety scored by the D.
For Our D/ST:
- 3 INT-TDs (Gilmore @ MIA, Collins @ MIA, KVN vs NYG)
- 2 ST TDs (Jackson punt block / Slater TD @ BUF, Bolden punt block / Winovich TD vs NYG)
- 22 PATs (3x PIT, 3x MIA, 3x NYJ, 1x BUF, 3x WAS, 5x NYG, 4x @NYJ)
- 10 FGs (4x PIT, 1x MIA, 1x Jets, 1x BUF, 2x WAS, 1x @NYJ)
- 1 Safety (@NYJ)
= (5 * 6) + (22 * 1) + (10 * 3) + (1 * 2) = 84 points scored, 62 excluding PATs
Against Our D/ST:
- 3 TDs (1x BUF, 1x WAS, 1x NYG)
- 1 ST TD (Gunner muff vs NYJ)
- 6 PATs (same as TDs, all PATs made, +2 from Jets pick-6 and NYG fumble recovery)
- 2 FGs (1x PIT, 1x BUF)
= (4 * 6) + (6 * 1) + (2 * 3) = 36 points allowed, 30 excluding PATs
Net Point Differentials:
- Including all PATs: +48
- Excluding all PATs: +32
- Excluding all PATs and FGs: +8 (5 TDs to 4, plus the safety)
- Defense-only: +2 (3 TDs scored and conceded, plus the safety)
N.B.:
- Failed PATs: 2 @ MIA, 1 NYJ, 1 BUF, 1 WAS
- Excludes Jets' INT-TD off Stidham, which is a score for the opponents' defense and could be included if you wanted the ledger to be both sides' D+ST, but we're including the opponents' offense here, so this is more like our D/ST vs their O/ST
For Our D/ST:
- 3 INT-TDs (Gilmore @ MIA, Collins @ MIA, KVN vs NYG)
- 2 ST TDs (Jackson punt block / Slater TD @ BUF, Bolden punt block / Winovich TD vs NYG)
- 22 PATs (3x PIT, 3x MIA, 3x NYJ, 1x BUF, 3x WAS, 5x NYG, 4x @NYJ)
- 10 FGs (4x PIT, 1x MIA, 1x Jets, 1x BUF, 2x WAS, 1x @NYJ)
- 1 Safety (@NYJ)
= (5 * 6) + (22 * 1) + (10 * 3) + (1 * 2) = 84 points scored, 62 excluding PATs
Against Our D/ST:
- 3 TDs (1x BUF, 1x WAS, 1x NYG)
- 1 ST TD (Gunner muff vs NYJ)
- 6 PATs (same as TDs, all PATs made, +2 from Jets pick-6 and NYG fumble recovery)
- 2 FGs (1x PIT, 1x BUF)
= (4 * 6) + (6 * 1) + (2 * 3) = 36 points allowed, 30 excluding PATs
Net Point Differentials:
- Including all PATs: +48
- Excluding all PATs: +32
- Excluding all PATs and FGs: +8 (5 TDs to 4, plus the safety)
- Defense-only: +2 (3 TDs scored and conceded, plus the safety)
N.B.:
- Failed PATs: 2 @ MIA, 1 NYJ, 1 BUF, 1 WAS
- Excludes Jets' INT-TD off Stidham, which is a score for the opponents' defense and could be included if you wanted the ledger to be both sides' D+ST, but we're including the opponents' offense here, so this is more like our D/ST vs their O/ST
In 1900, Buffalo was the 8th largest city in the US. Cleveland #7, Cincinnati #10, Pittsburgh #11.
Cleveland peaked at 5th largest city in the country in 1920, and remained top-10 until the 1980 census.
Pittsburgh was top-10 starting in 1920 up until the 1950 census.
In 2010: Cleveland #45, Pittsburgh #60, Cincinnati #63, Buffalo #71
So it turns out the D is a mirage - it is just feasting on the lousy AFC East:
vs. AFC East: 2.50 PPG
vs. rest of NFL: 5.67 PPG
That is more than 2.25 times as many points per game given up vs. non-AFC East teams. #tomatocans
vs. AFC East: 2.50 PPG
vs. rest of NFL: 5.67 PPG
That is more than 2.25 times as many points per game given up vs. non-AFC East teams. #tomatocans
Look at that ghastly number against non-AFCE opponents. My word what a drop-off.
Patriots defensive FPI is 8.2, the best through Week 7 in the last 5 seasons.
The gap between NE and the 3rd-best defense (Chicago) is 4.9 points above average. That’s larger than the gap between CHI (3.3) and 23rd ranked PHI (-1.0). In other words, the 3rd-best defense in the NFL by FPI has performed closer to the level of the 23rd ranked defense (PHI) than the 1st ranked defense (NE).
Also, sharing this thread on beating the Cover 0 Blitz. Very insightful and Foxworth actually credits BB for "teaching" him this in 2005 when the Broncos beat the Patriots in the playoffs: View: https://twitter.com/Foxworth24/status/1186452565959102466?s=20
The gap between NE and the 3rd-best defense (Chicago) is 4.9 points above average. That’s larger than the gap between CHI (3.3) and 23rd ranked PHI (-1.0). In other words, the 3rd-best defense in the NFL by FPI has performed closer to the level of the 23rd ranked defense (PHI) than the 1st ranked defense (NE).
Also, sharing this thread on beating the Cover 0 Blitz. Very insightful and Foxworth actually credits BB for "teaching" him this in 2005 when the Broncos beat the Patriots in the playoffs: View: https://twitter.com/Foxworth24/status/1186452565959102466?s=20
That was good, and echoes a comment Booger made last night, about how the Pats were basically playing only two defenses against the Jets: zero blitz and zero bluff.
(People in the game thread were right, by the way, Booger was great. Is he always that good? I don't watch a lot of Monday Night Football.)
Also, this article by Chase Stuart, who is always a good read, and also a Jets fan, is pretty great:
http://www.footballperspective.com/the-patriots-pass-defense-is-impossible/#commentform
Speaking of Pats man-zero...The Patriots have run man-zero coverage 9% of the time this season, second-most of any team (only behind the Ravens at 10%), according to ESPN pass coverage metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. Opponents have averaged -1.19 expected points added and 1 yard per dropback when Patriots run man-zero.
Plus DH missed 2 games, and KVN missed a game. It's incredible what this defense is doing.
Average drive: 4.39 plays for 16.71 yards in 1:58
Over the last 20 years I was only able to find 1 or 2 defenses under 5 plays per drive. The Pats are more than 10% better than those defenses.
We haven't played against any good receiving TEs. We're going to need him when we play KC to pick up Kelce I would imagine.
Kelce's production is down a few ticks this year. He's still a Pro-Bowl TE, but his yardage looks like it'll be closer to the 1,000-1,100 he put up in 2016 and 2017 than the 1,336 he put up last year. Additionally, he only has 1 TD through 7 games. He caught 10 last year.
Belichick also treated Kelce as a WR when they last played. Jackson was on him in the first half and Gilmore in the second IIRC.
I never really did any digging on why Detroit didn't want him and how Van Noy became available. I remember him coming over as a cast off of the Lions and being a bust but did some searching today and it is interesting to see they wanted him for a long time:
https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/football/patriots-took-advantage-lions-mistake-trade-for-kyle-van-noy/yekFnTLqhxWMw2bgY7CQ6O/
There's a dozen or so other articles about it as well. Sounds like the Pats wanted him, he went way ahead of where he was projected and Pats stayed after him.
I was just watching Point Break and it was the scene where they're walking down the beach and Utah realizes the Ex-Presidents are his buddies and his girl turns to him and says, "What's wrong? You look like you've seen a ghost." and I just started laughing.
Have folks who have seen the Chiefs play noticed Kelce being used as a blocker more often this season? I realize he’s no Gronk when it comes to blocking, but I’m still curious. Given KC’s apparent reduction in OL effectiveness compared to last season, there could be a scheme adjustment driving that reduced production. If he’s just being forced to chip DEs more often to help the blocking hold up, that might still be a key factor.
Ravens tracker update. Red zone and plus-50 updates coming later.
Ravens:
Game 1 (@ Steelers, finished 9-7): 0 points, 193 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 223 total yards
Game 2 (vs. Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 36 points, 375 yards passing, 46 yards rushing, 421 total yards
Game 3 (@ Miami, finished 11-5): 19 points, 152 yards passing, 106 yards rushing, 258 total yards
Game 4 (vs. Cincinnati, finished 4-12): 0 points, 90 yards passing, 4 yards rushing, 94 total yards
Game 5 (@ Cleveland, finished 3-13): 0 points, 207 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, 230 total yards
Game 6 (@ Jacksonville, finished 7-9): 10 points, 253 yards passing, 95 yards rushing, 348 total yards
Game 7 (@ Washington, finished 8-8): 10 points, 145 yards passing, 101 yards rushing, 246 total yards)
Game 8 (vs. Titans, finished 13-3): 14 points, 101 yards passing, 90 yards rushing, 191 total yards)
Totals: 89 points, 1,516 yards passing, 495 yards rushing, 2,011 total yards, total opponents' record of 62-66, .484%)
Pats:
Game 1 (vs. Steelers, currently 2-4): 3 points, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 308 total yards
Game 2 (@ Miami, currently 0-6): 0 points, 142 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 184 total yards
Game 3 (vs. Jets, currently 1-6): 14 points, 69 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, 105 total yards
Game 4 (@ Bills, currently 5-2): 10 points, 240 yards passing, 135 yards rushing, 375 total yards
Game 5 (@ Washington, currently 1-7): 7 points, 75 yards passing, 145 yards rushing, 220 total yards
Game 6 (vs. Giants, currently 2-6): 14 points, 161 yards passing, 52 yards rushing, 213 total yards
Game 7 (@ Jets, currently 1-6): 0 points, 73 yards passing, 81 yards rushing, 154 total yards
Game 8 (vs. Browns, currently 2-5): 13 points, 151 yards passing, 159 yards rushing, 310 total yards
Total: 61 points, 1,190 yards passing, 682 yards rushing, 1,872 total yards, total opponents' record of 14-42, .250%)
Ravens had a very good defensive day against a good team in week 8. Their strength of opponent is much stronger halfway through the season. But the Pats have still allowed 28 fewer points (3.5 PPG) and 139 fewer yards (17.375 YPG).
The Pats' D wasn't great yesterday - at least not by their own lofty standards. Coming in they had been averaging:
- 3.9 points allowed
- 223.1 yards allowed
- 12.6 first downs allowed
And yesterday they gave up:
- 13 points (9.1 more than their previous average)
- 310 yards (86.9 more than their previous average)
- 15 first downs (2.4 more than their previous average)
Going into yesterday's game, their pass D had allowed:
- 123-242 (50.8%), 1,209 yds (5.0 y/a), 1 td, 18 int, 35.6 rating
Yesterday their pass D allowed:
- 20-31 (64.5%), 194 yds (6.3 y/a), 1 td, 1 int, 79.2 rating
Going into yesterday's game, their rush D had allowed:
- 126 att, 483 yds, 3.8 ypc
Yesterday their rush D allowed:
- 22 att, 159 yds, 7.3 ypc
- Even without Chubb's 44 yarder, it still would have been 21 att, 105 yds, 5.0 ypc
And even though their D "struggled" yesterday, they held a potentially explosive offense (they had just scored 28 points and put up 406 total yards against Seattle, and 40 points/530 yards at Baltimore two weeks prior to that) to just 310 total yards and 13 points.
- 3.9 points allowed
- 223.1 yards allowed
- 12.6 first downs allowed
And yesterday they gave up:
- 13 points (9.1 more than their previous average)
- 310 yards (86.9 more than their previous average)
- 15 first downs (2.4 more than their previous average)
Going into yesterday's game, their pass D had allowed:
- 123-242 (50.8%), 1,209 yds (5.0 y/a), 1 td, 18 int, 35.6 rating
Yesterday their pass D allowed:
- 20-31 (64.5%), 194 yds (6.3 y/a), 1 td, 1 int, 79.2 rating
Going into yesterday's game, their rush D had allowed:
- 126 att, 483 yds, 3.8 ypc
Yesterday their rush D allowed:
- 22 att, 159 yds, 7.3 ypc
- Even without Chubb's 44 yarder, it still would have been 21 att, 105 yds, 5.0 ypc
And even though their D "struggled" yesterday, they held a potentially explosive offense (they had just scored 28 points and put up 406 total yards against Seattle, and 40 points/530 yards at Baltimore two weeks prior to that) to just 310 total yards and 13 points.
I can't stop watching the Guy "interception" on the toss in the backfield, and I can't stop laughing about it.
And that also includes a Mayfield 18 yard scramble. Chubb was, and is, good---without that long run he still had numerous 7-10 yarders. Taking that long one out, he had 19 carries for 87 yards--nice average, but if you combine that with allowing under 200 yards passing, we'll take it all day.
For sure. And that was my point really. They "struggled" yesterday but it was against an offense that has the potential to be explosive, and they still only allowed 310 total yards and 13 points. I mean, that's pretty good.
I do think stiffer tests are still to come, but yesterday was solid.
Did anyone else think it seemed like the Patriots had trouble wrapping up and tackling, possibly as a result of the wet weather? The Chubb 44 yarder looked just like the other long plays we've seen the defense give up with missed tackles this season.
Many of us commented on the bad tackling, but personally I won't blame the weather, because Cleveland didn't seem to have the same tackling issues. I just think it was a sloppy day for tackling, and I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis this week for BB. One of the issues of creating so many turnovers is that teams and players can get a little happy hunting them, sometimes at the expense of sure tackling. I don't know if that's what happened yesterday but their tackling was definitely off.
This is a good point. I will say that on the Edelman's first TD it seemed like he should have been tackled short of the end zone and that he was able to slip out of the LB's grasp. He tends to do that once or twice a game in all weather conditions though.
I think they've had some issues with this in previous games as well. If this D has a weakness that might be it.
Seems like they often have multiple guys at the point of attack though.
It's worth noting that Cleveland is a talented team with a bad record. There was always potential for them to do more as they actually have the skill players to do it.
So as many said, the numbers were up, but the D still held them down. (To Yogi Berra it a bit)
So as many said, the numbers were up, but the D still held them down. (To Yogi Berra it a bit)
The bad tackling was kind of weird. On the Washington long TD run and the Chubb run, we literally had swarms of people around the ball carrier but they almost looked disinterested in tackling as if everyone was assuming/hoping that someone else would do it, kind of like the Miami Miracle play. Yesterday, Hightower whiffed on Chubb to start the damage but McCourty was right there to clean it up and he failed to do so, which is rare for him. They're normally really solid so I think it's just a matter of losing focus for a play or two but is something to watch for this week. We're going to see a ton of Ingram and Lamar Jackson in this one so they'll need to be on their game.
The whispering consensus has been that whatever his offensive acumen, Kitchens's head coaching is faling short. He did nothing to quiet those voices yesterday.
Red zone update:
The Browns ran 3 plays in the red zone. They were 1-1 passing for 8 yards, had a sack for -9 yards, and a run for -2 yards. So 3 plays, -3 yards.
Browns: 3
Jets: 6
Washington: 0
Buffalo: 9
NYJ: 0
Miami: 1
Pittsburgh: 5
24 total plays inside the red zone / 3.0 plays per game.
Total breakdown:
3-12 passing, 17 yards, 3 INT, 0.0 rating, 2 sacks, -9 yards lost (so Pats have as many catches than their opponents inside the red zone)
10 carries for 17 yards, 1 TD, 1.70 YPC
Total: 24 plays, 25 yards (1.04 YPP), 1 TD, 3 INT
Plus 50 update
The Pats have only allowed 124 plays on their side of the field in 8 games (15.5 per game):
QBs are 26-80 (32.5%) for 263 yards, 10 picks, and 11 sacks for -75 yards. Passer rating of 7.4.
RBs have 33 carries for 110 yards (3.33 YPC) and 1 TD (Josh Allen)
Total: 124 plays for 298 yards, 2.40 YPP
Edit: numbers aren't adding up, trying to figure this out
The Pats have only allowed 124 plays on their side of the field in 8 games (15.5 per game):
QBs are 26-80 (32.5%) for 263 yards, 10 picks, and 11 sacks for -75 yards. Passer rating of 7.4.
RBs have 33 carries for 110 yards (3.33 YPC) and 1 TD (Josh Allen)
Total: 124 plays for 298 yards, 2.40 YPP
Edit: numbers aren't adding up, trying to figure this out