2019 TB12: Everyday Is Like Sunday

nighthob

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I’m a big believer, but do we really expect him to be playing until ‘46? Although on the bright side that timeline would line up with Sanu Jr.’s prime.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Bucky Brooks says the Pats are "doomed with Brady at QB". Some snippets.

"He is a game manager being propped up by a stellar defense and an opportunistic special teams."

"Let's be honest: TB12 hasn't really played like an elite quaterback since the middle of 2018, and his declining play at age 42 suggests that we will never see him perform at that level again. He might walk into the ring like Mike Tyson preparing to knock out Michael Spinks, but he's really "Iron Mike" facing Lennox Lewis at the end of his career. The swagger and intimidation factor remains, but the game is no longer there -- and it is only a matter of time before opponents realize the bark isn't nearly as ferocious as the bite."

"With defensive coordinators growing more confident that pressure can disrupt Brady's rhythm, and with New England's offense lacking big-play threats on the outside, the Pats are poised to face more pressure than ever with No. 12 under center. Defenders have not only tasted his punching power, but they're beginning to walk through his jabs knowing that Brady is staggering as he retreats to his corner. Now, that doesn't mean the 14-time Pro Bowler is unable to catch an opponent slipping with an occasional haymaker, but the days of Tom Brady hunting for knockouts are over. He lacks the precision to beat opponents up with body blows over a 12-round fight, and his suspect supporting cast makes it hard for him to overwhelm opponents as a counter puncher."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001079418/article/pats-doomed-with-tom-brady-at-qb-michael-thomas-for-opoy?campaign=Twitter_atn
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Very hot take. And it might be right. There will be, I assume, some games where Brady is elite TOM BRADY. But I'd expect the quality of his play to not be what it once was, and for him to have some more games that have people legitimately wondering if..."cliff". And the D needs to be excellent, and the running game/OL needs to show up.

This is how the Broncos did it with Elway. Built a really good D and outstanding running game in his last couple of years. He wasn't remotely the same QB he once was, but there were definitely times when the prime John Elway still showed up. It's like Pedro in his last years. His last year with Philly (2009) he wasn't remotely the same Pedro. 3.63 era in the NL, 7.5 k/9, 1.25 whip. Those were good solid numbers for most pitchers, but not Pedro. And yet that year he had a couple of Pedro-like games:

7.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k in a 2-1 win over SF
8.0 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k in a 1-0 win over NYM

Brady will definitely have some BRADY games left in him, but don't expect the final numbers to be the kinds of numbers we're used to from him. I mean, last 4 years:

Comp %: 67.4, 66.3, 65.8, 63.7
TD %: 6.5, 5.5, 5.1, 3.5
Rating: 112.2, 102.8, 97.7, 90.1

I mean, it's there, it's almost certainly real. But for one game, or a playoff run, there's still nobody I'd rather have than him.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Am I supposed to know who Bucky Brooks is?

At some point someone is going to be right about Brady's decline, it's really not some super controversial take.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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I know that it's been mentioned here many times and I know it's all about the clicks for Bucky/Max, etc, but it's obvious to anyone that watches these games that Brady isn't going to incur unnecessary risk of injury during the 16 game preseason.

Get us to January healthy and we can all wait for TB to remind everyone that he's old and sucks.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Am I supposed to know who Bucky Brooks is?

At some point someone is going to be right about Brady's decline, it's really not some super controversial take.
He does some pod work with Daniel Jeremiah and he's apparently trying to get more camera time with that molten hot take. Honestly he and DJ do a decent job on their pod.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Also the line sucks, Gronk retired, Harry hasn't played much at all, they can't run the ball, AB only lasted a game, and Sanu has barely had any time to get integrated into the offense. Brady might be finally in decline, but there are way too many other issues with the offense to reach that conclusion right now.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Also the line sucks, Gronk retired, Harry hasn't played much at all, they can't run the ball, AB only lasted a game, and Sanu has barely had any time to get integrated into the offense. Brady might be finally in decline, but there are way too many other issues with the offense to reach that conclusion right now.
Enough with your rational takes.
 

scottyno

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A hot take that says they're doomed while also saying that he hasn't played well since the middle of last year seems to be missing something pretty obvious that shows that they clearly aren't doomed without an elite Brady...
 

BusRaker

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Still time to post some stats with the 6 games remaining against (with FO pass defense ranks)

20 - Dallas
24 - Texas
12 - KC
31 - We're on to Cincinnati
14 - Buffalo
32 - FIns
 

Spelunker

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Am I supposed to know who Bucky Brooks is?

At some point someone is going to be right about Brady's decline, it's really not some super controversial take.
It's also not going to be a cliff, so folks looking for that are peeping in the wrong direction. Same for those arguing against that strawman.

He's not as good as he used to be. That's fine: given the right circumstances and talent he's very very very good, and I'd take his experience and knowledge over almost anyone. But he's not the best in the league. It would be shocking if he were: it's shocking enough that he's really really good at his age.

Athletes decline, generally gradually, often before we (or they) realize it. The work he's done has gone a long way towards flattening that curve but the trend line is always downwards after a certain point. That's life. At some level we're all just building sandcastles in the surf.
 

Jimbodandy

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Am I supposed to know who Bucky Brooks is?

At some point someone is going to be right about Brady's decline, it's really not some super controversial take.
Hot garbage take.

Pressure makes Brady bad? Pressure makes everyone bad. This is nothing new. If you can get to the QB with four guys, most QBs suck. A few can dance out of it and run or sling, but that wasn't part of any of TBs 6 SB wins.

I don't blame these fools for writing this every few months. As noted above, someone someday will be right.
 

lexrageorge

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When Brady was throwing to a dedicated Josh Gordon, or to Antonio Brown, he looked alright. QED.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady this year:

4 games with a passer rating over 103.
5 games with a passer rating under 81.

Last 6 games: 155-252 (61.5%), 1,533 yds, 6.1 y/a, 5 td, 3 int, 80.3 rating

Last 6 games, offensive points scored: 21, 31, 20, 20, 17, 13 = 20.3 average

Very very un-Patriots' like.
 

Number45forever

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I thought Brady was great in that game yesterday. The conditions sucked, it was really windy and raining the whole game. A few drops hurt, but whatever. He generally made zero mistakes and made a few really, really good throws. The "failures" of TB12 during this season are due a lot more to the cast around him than to any decline in his play, I think. I wouldn't be surprised if the offense clicks a bit over the last month of the season with more reps for the rookies, Sanu back, Wynn back, an improved running game, etc. I'll take TB12 still, and I all but guarantee he comes out next year and is even better with all the current receivers having a full offseason to work on stuff.
 

[icon]

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A lot of these takes feel a little forced.

It IS possible that both of the following are true, and combining to create a perfect storm:
1) Brady IS in decline, albeit not as bad as it appears due to...
2) The Line/Offense is a shell of what it was, between injuries and retirement.

Wynn is back and getting up to speed.
Sanu and Dorsett will be back sooner than later.
Harry and Myers are getting critical quality snaps/targets to build rapport/depth for the playoffs
We are healthy at RB, with Michel looking better as the season wears on (Thanks to a bit stronger line)

The Tools Tom needs to win are slowly falling into place for the real season.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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There's no doubt that with increased reps from Meyers and Harry, a return to health for Sanu and Dorsett, and improved O-line play thanks to the return of Wynn and better health for Cannon, that the offense should improve. I definitely think Brady isn't as good as he used to be (how can he - he's 42 for crying out loud!) but he's still plenty good enough to win. Their last 5 opponents' defensive rankings:

Houston:
#17 points allowed
#20 yards allowed
#27 in passer rating allowed (101.0)
#23 in rushing allowed per carry (4.6)

Kansas City:
#19 points allowed
#25 yards allowed
#11 in passer rating allowed (87.2)
#31 in rushing allowed per carry (5.1)

Cincinnati
#27 points allowed
#32 yards allowed
#30 in passer rating allowed (104.8)
#29 in rushing allowed per carry (4.9)

Buffalo
#3 points allowed
#3 yards allowed
#3 in passer rating allowed (76.8)
#20 in rushing allowed per carry (4.4)

Miami
#32 points allowed
#30 yards allowed
#31 in passer rating allowed (106.8)
#25 in rushing allowed per carry (4.7)

Long story short, over the next five games they play four bad defenses and one excellent one. Three of the five are at home. It's a good time for the offense to begin to hit its stride and get ready for the playoffs.
 

tims4wins

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There's no doubt that with increased reps from Meyers and Harry, a return to health for Sanu and Dorsett, and improved O-line play thanks to the return of Wynn and better health for Cannon, that the offense should improve. I definitely think Brady isn't as good as he used to be (how can he - he's 42 for crying out loud!) but he's still plenty good enough to win. Their last 5 opponents' defensive rankings:

Houston:
#17 points allowed
#20 yards allowed
#27 in passer rating allowed (101.0)
#23 in rushing allowed per carry (4.6)

Kansas City:
#19 points allowed
#25 yards allowed
#11 in passer rating allowed (87.2)
#31 in rushing allowed per carry (5.1)

Cincinnati
#27 points allowed
#32 yards allowed
#30 in passer rating allowed (104.8)
#29 in rushing allowed per carry (4.9)

Buffalo
#3 points allowed
#3 yards allowed
#3 in passer rating allowed (76.8)
#20 in rushing allowed per carry (4.4)

Miami
#32 points allowed
#30 yards allowed
#31 in passer rating allowed (106.8)
#25 in rushing allowed per carry (4.7)

Long story short, over the next five games they play four bad defenses and one excellent one. Three of the five are at home. It's a good time for the offense to begin to hit its stride and get ready for the playoffs.
Plus the Houston game is indoors. Weather not a factor unlike Cleveland, Philly, and Dallas games. Sanu and Dorsett should be back. If the offense has another bleh outing this week then I'll be pretty worried. I expect them to get into the mid-upper 20s though.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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As Pats fans, would we rather have Brady running a not-so-high-powered offense but have an utterly dominant defense or run a video-game caliber offense but have a weak defense that allows even replacement-level QBs throw for 300 yards?
 

Bowhemian

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As Pats fans, would we rather have Brady running a not-so-high-powered offense but have an utterly dominant defense or run a video-game caliber offense but have a weak defense that allows even replacement-level QBs throw for 300 yards?
Why can't we have both?
 

InstaFace

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I know, that'd be as absurd as having the greatest coach and greatest QB of all time simultaneously, having them both maintain focus for 20 years, and coming to expect that you'll be at least in the conference championship game every year, and more likely in the super bowl, while the other 31 teams of the league all claw for scraps year after year despite having huge competitive-balance factors like the draft in their favor.
 

lexrageorge

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I loved nothing better than watching a precision Brady drive where he moves the offense ~90 yards in a precision manner, throwing to 5 different receivers, completing a 3rd-and-long to Edelman over the middle while he's blanketed by DB's, and ending with a Gronk-spike in the end zone. It was something to watch, and it made us immune to the struggles nearly every other franchise had when it came to offense.

2014 and 2016 told us the defense did not have to be perfect; it just had to be good enough, especially when the situation demanded it (aka, the seemingly inevitable Duran Harmon interception in the 4th quarter). Lost in the Malcolm Butler play were the 4-and-out and 3-and-out that the D forced upon a decent Seattle offense in the 4th quarter. Still, there was always a bit of uneasy suspense if the Pats offense was forced to punt late in the game. And the chickens came home to roost in each of the team's 3 Super Bowl losses.

I cannot prove it, but I always had the "feeling" that relying on offense alone was suboptimal. Putting together long drives on offense is difficult; a missed block or inopportune penalty can easily kill a drive. Have that happen on a couple of drives, add in a special teams play that goes against you, and you're suddenly vulnerable if your defense cannot get off the field. I always felt the first Giants drive in the Voldemort Game played an under appreciated role in the outcome. In the second loss to the Giants, the D gave up 9 first downs in the first 3 Giants drive in the second half (FG, FG, punt), allowing NY to control the ball for 14 of the half's first 20 minutes.

Obviously, a balanced attack is best. And I do think the offense needs to be better if the team is going to hoist #7. But the good news is that even minor improvements to the offense may suffice given what we've seen from the D, the Ravens game notwithstanding.
 

tims4wins

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ESPN put out a piece that grades all the QBs in 35 different categories (basically types of throws). Here's the link

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/28114230/the-best-nfl-quarterback-every-throw-situation-35-categories
I'll post the most relevant part:

Highest accuracy+ pass percentage
Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Brady leads the way in "accuracy+" or "perfect" passes by our grading. Whether leading receivers away from the leverage of defenders or hitting receivers in stride to optimize yards after the catch, Brady is annually the league's best, and he's pacing the NFL once again, even in a down season.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Brady is in the midst of a bad stretch:

Avg game over the last 5 games: 25-42 (58.8%), 240 yds, 1.0 td, 0.4 int, 78.7 rating

But he's had similar stretches before...

2019 (g7-11): 25-42 (58.8%), 240 yds, 1.0 td, 0.4 int, 78.7 rating
2018 (g8-10): 24-40 (59.5%), 291 yds, 0.3 td, 0.0 int, 84.5 rating
2017 (g12-14): 22-36 (62.0%), 263 yds, 0.7 td, 1.3 int, 75.0 rating
2015 (g9-12): 25-45 (54.8%), 301 yds, 2.3 td, 1.0 int, 83.2 rating
2014 (g13-16): 20-33 (61.5%), 217 yds, 1.3 td, 0.8 int, 84.3 rating
2013 (g5-8): 19-37 (52.4%), 203 yds, 0.5 td, 1.0 int, 61.6 rating
2012 (g13-15): 26-45 (58.0%), 311 yds, 2.0 td, 1.3 int, 82.3 rating
2010 (g6-9): 20-35 (58.3%), 229 yds, 1.3 td, 0.5 int, 84.1 rating
2009 (g11-16): 18-29 (63.9%), 225 yds, 1.3 td, 1.2 int, 86.6 rating

I have confidence that if the line solidifies and the beat up receivers get healthy, that Brady will bounce back just like he always has.
 

DJnVa

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Going against the Texans shitty pass defense will help too.

QB rating against Houston is 101. They've given up 22 TDs and only have 5 INTs.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Currently at 3,268 yards, 18 td, 6 int, 61.1%, 88.2 rating. Obviously not the numbers we've become accustomed to seeing from him, but, while he certainly doesn't seem as great as he's been, I think talk of him having really fallen off are overblown. He's on pace for 4,357 yards, 24 td, 8 int. That would be the third fewest int of his career, tied with 2007, 2012, and 2017, despite having 11 more attempts than he's ever had. The 272.3 yards per game is more than he had last season. The things that really stand out are the low completion percentage (61.1% is fourth lowest of his career and lowest since 2013) and lack of touchdowns (24 would be lowest since 2006). Wrt completion percentage, he leads the league in throwaways by 5 (29), and is second in drops (24) behind Dak and tied with Baker Mayfield (both of those stats don't include last nights game). He has a lower bad-throw% than Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, according to Pro Football Reference. Last season he only had one more drop and seven fewer throwaways in 125 more attempts than he had before last night. If he was throwing the ball away and his receivers were dropping the ball at the same rate as last season, his rating would be 92.3, and that doesn't include the additional yards and any touchdowns that may have been picked up on the additional completions. Still his lowest rating since 2013, but his stats would look significantly better with a completion percentage of 64.6% instead of 61.1%.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Wrt to the low touchdowns, they have been horrible in the redzone (as I'm sure everyone already knows). They're 24th in redzone touchdown%; the previous four years they had been 12, 3, 10, and 4. In fact, prior to last season, they had been top 10 in redzone td% every season since 2003, other than 2009 when they were 12th. Brady hasn't been horrible in the redzone, going 42-75 (56%) with 10 td, 2 int, and a 90.0 rating. But he has been absolutely dreadful inside the 10, going 16-35 (45.71%) with 7 td, 1 int, and an 80.4 rating. And despite the not awful rating in the redzone, he only has 10 td in 75 attempts with two picks. Last season he had 18 td and 1 int in 86 redzone attempts. The year before that it was 26 td and 0 in on 86 attempts. I don't know whether this is due to Gronk being gone, or not having a running game, or what, but I don't think it can simply be explained by him declining.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Also, just a random weird thing I noticed: Brady has a 64.2% completion and 95 rating if you take away the second quarter. In the second quarter he's at 55.15% with 4 td, 2 int, and a 75.1 rating. No idea why this is and doubt it really means anything, but it's strange how awful he's been in the second quarter compared to the other 3.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Wrt to the low touchdowns, they have been horrible in the redzone (as I'm sure everyone already knows). They're 24th in redzone touchdown%; the previous four years they had been 12, 3, 10, and 4. In fact, prior to last season, they had been top 10 in redzone td% every season since 2003, other than 2009 when they were 12th. Brady hasn't been horrible in the redzone, going 42-75 (56%) with 10 td, 2 int, and a 90.0 rating. But he has been absolutely dreadful inside the 10, going 16-35 (45.71%) with 7 td, 1 int, and an 80.4 rating. And despite the not awful rating in the redzone, he only has 10 td in 75 attempts with two picks. Last season he had 18 td and 1 int in 86 redzone attempts. The year before that it was 26 td and 0 in on 86 attempts. I don't know whether this is due to Gronk being gone, or not having a running game, or what, but I don't think it can simply be explained by him declining.
On the season Brady is 32-42 with 9 td in the redzone targeting Edelman, White, or Sanu, and is 10-33 with 1 or 2 td targeting anyone else (1 or 2 because football reference says Brady has 10 redzone td but has JE with 4, White with 3, Sanu with 2, and Dorsett and Harry both with 1, so idk). When your main redzone targets average under 6 feet tall and have career highs in tds of 7, 7, and 5, your'e going to have a lot of trouble scoring close to the goal line. They desperately need Harry or Watson to start doing literally anything in the redzone.
 

BigSoxFan

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On the season Brady is 32-42 with 9 td in the redzone targeting Edelman, White, or Sanu, and is 10-33 with 1 or 2 td targeting anyone else (1 or 2 because football reference says Brady has 10 redzone td but has JE with 4, White with 3, Sanu with 2, and Dorsett and Harry both with 1, so idk). When your main redzone targets average under 6 feet tall and have career highs in tds of 7, 7, and 5, your'e going to have a lot of trouble scoring close to the goal line. They desperately need Harry or Watson to start doing literally anything in the redzone.
Harry is one game removed from a red zone TD. Did he even get a red zone snap this week? You’d think that he could at least be a red zone specialist.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Harry is one game removed from a red zone TD. Did he even get a red zone snap this week? You’d think that he could at least be a red zone specialist.
That’s what I’m hoping for from him. It was always going to be hard for him to have a massive impact after missing so much time but if he could turn into a solid red zone option this season it would help the offense immensely
 

Super Nomario

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On the season Brady is 32-42 with 9 td in the redzone targeting Edelman, White, or Sanu, and is 10-33 with 1 or 2 td targeting anyone else (1 or 2 because football reference says Brady has 10 redzone td but has JE with 4, White with 3, Sanu with 2, and Dorsett and Harry both with 1, so idk). When your main redzone targets average under 6 feet tall and have career highs in tds of 7, 7, and 5, your'e going to have a lot of trouble scoring close to the goal line. They desperately need Harry or Watson to start doing literally anything in the redzone.
Dorsett has one on the trick play from Edelman, that's probably the discrepancy.

The red zone performance was actually pretty good yesterday. I especially liked the play design on the first TD.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Dorsett has one on the trick play from Edelman, that's probably the discrepancy.

The red zone performance was actually pretty good yesterday. I especially liked the play design on the first TD.
You’re right I forgot about that play. Yesterday was for sure better than it has been but on the season the red zone failures and the huge amount of drops and throwaways definitely make Brady’s statline a lot worse that it otherwise would be
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Great example of how Brady and his WR's are out of sync and not on the same page.

View: https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1201872812866228226
Is this a Dorsett issue? He missed the hand signal on 3rd down, when Brady chucked it deep down the sideline with JE drawing the safety down the deep middle.

I think this is out of character for PD as he he shown to be reliable. Tough to tell how much of it is real, long term issue and how much can be chalked up to the flu and inconsistent reps due to injuries (Sanu, Dorsett, Harry & most of the O-line).
 

RedOctober3829

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Is this a Dorsett issue? He missed the hand signal on 3rd down, when Brady chucked it deep down the sideline with JE drawing the safety down the deep middle.

I think this is out of character for PD as he he shown to be reliable. Tough to tell how much of it is real, long term issue and how much can be chalked up to the flu and inconsistent reps due to injuries (Sanu, Dorsett, Harry & most of the O-line).
Dorsett's catch percentage is down from the mid to upper 70's last year to the 50's this year. He's not having a good year and they need him badly.
 

E5 Yaz

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Dorsett's catch percentage is down from the mid to upper 70's last year to the 50's this year. He's not having a good year and they need him badly.
How is "catch percentage" measured? Is it just based on catches per targets, or does it only include passes that are deemed "catchable"?
 

tims4wins

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I can see why Dorsett sat down with the other defender dropping back to where Brady actually threw it. Both parties are to blame on this one IMO.