2019 WS - Nationals vs. Astros - Gamethread

jose melendez

jose melendez

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Among the reasons tomorrow is interesting is that their awful pen isn't an issue. Presuming Scherzer goes, they can have four good pen options with Annibal, Corbin, Hudson and Doolittle. The pen may not get the job done--none of those guys is automatic, but that soft, terrible underbelly just isn't there.
 
jon abbey

jon abbey

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jose melendez said:
Among the reasons tomorrow is interesting is that their awful pen isn't an issue. Presuming Scherzer goes, they can have four good pen options with Annibal, Corbin, Hudson and Doolittle. The pen may not get the job done--none of those guys is automatic, but that soft, terrible underbelly just isn't there.
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Yep, Stras didn't just win game 6, he helped them a ton going into game 7. I mean, not as much as you, but he was a factor too.
 
jon abbey

jon abbey

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A-Rod says it was a terrible call, so now I am even more certain it was right.
 
DeadlySplitter

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the Astros are stupidly good at finding tipping. wonder who the advance scout is that keeps finding this stuff.
 
loshjott

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RedOctober3829 said:
At around 100 pitches and up 5 runs, if he was able to start the inning and no sign of trouble yet. I’d have left him in. You don’t send a pitcher out to start an inning to get a reliever extra warmup pitches.
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I think it was to get Doo a few pitches before tomorrow night, actually. He hasn’t pitched in forever and need3d the work. I doubt he’d have thrown more than 20.
 
RedOctober3829

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I hate what Torre says. Turner did nothing to interfere with Gurriel trying to catch the ball. The pitcher’s throw tailed away which is why he was reaching so far to try to catch it. Such horrible judgment by the umpire. Runners multiple times a game run exactly where Turner ran. It never gets called because the throws are accurate. Turner was exactly where he’s supposed to be at the base and was penalized because of a bad throw.
 
Sox and Rocks

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InstaFace said:
I'm not entirely sure why we're rooting against him so hard. I mean, we had to gin up a bunch of antipathy when he was on the 2013 Tigers (gave up 1 run in 8 innings), and perhaps last year (slapped him around a bit in 2 starts), but he's not a bad guy, and a likely HOFer.

I'm not rooting for his team, but I don't bear him any ill will personally.
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Agreed
 
Awesome Fossum

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I'd be tempted to go with Michael A in CF tomorrow over Robles, which I can't believe I'm saying.

I think assuming Giolito makes a similar jump with the Nats is a mistake. Things were not working for him in DC, and the White Sox deserve credit for helping him figure it out.
 
teddywingman

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InstaFace said:
That stat was so weird. 1400+ postseason series in MLB, NHL and NBA, and this is the VERY FIRST ONE where the away team has won the first 6 games. The odds of a series going at least 6 games is about 63% just off a binomial distribution, so you'd expect that ~880 series would have gone at least 6.

If every game is 50% to be won by the away team, you'd expect (.5)^6 = 1.6% chance of a 6-game streak of road wins, and expect ~13.8 such series to have occurred.
If every game is 45% to be won by the away team, you'd expect (.45)^6 = 0.83% chance of a 6-game streak of road wins, and expect ~7.3 such series to have occurred.
If every game is 40% to be won by the away team, you'd expect (.4)^6 = 0.4% chance of a 6-game streak of road wins, and expect ~3.6 such series to have occurred.

I guess it's kinda like the stats on the fate of teams who went down 0-3 in a series. What outcomes you'd expect just from binomial distribution, and what outcomes you actually observe in the real world, really suggest the impact of emotion and morale and how, with apologies to Randall Munroe, these aren't just weighted random number generators.
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Amen
 
loshjott

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Since the last week of the regular season Nats have eliminated, in succession, the Phillies, Indians, Brewers, Dodgers, and Cardinals. Astros next? That must be some kind of record.
 
jon abbey

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Greinke and Scherzer had roughly equal regular seasons and both have had amazing careers, Greinke actually ahead in bWAR for this season (6.4-5.8) and for career (71.7-60.3) even though he is only nine months older and Scherzer just had his seventh straight top 5 Cy Young finish, maybe even his fourth straight top 2.

But still if Scherzer was definitely healthy tomorrow, I think he'd have the clear advantage given how both have looked recently but as it is who knows.
 
Leskanic's Thread

Leskanic's Thread

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I mean, not to build up hype too much -- but this has a chance to be another 1991 World Series Game 7, doesn't it?

(Cue an 8-7 score in the bottom of the 4th...)
 
luckysox

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I'm assuming the hook will be swift with Greinke, depending on the score. If he gets banged around early, or he gets through the order twice, he's pulled. Then we'll see Cole, and he's gonna throw as long as he's effective, which, frankly, I expect would be awhile. He's a physical horse, he seems to lean into the pressure of the post season, and he's looking for his first ring. I could see the guy summoning his inner '99 Pedro and being damn good for more than an inning or two (ok, maybe not THAT good, but still, very effective).

I will ask this, though: he's about to get PAID...does that enter his mind when he's asked how much he can give? Because I assume he's never thrown 105 pitches and then been asked to pitch multiple, high leverage innings on two days rest, and he's got to have, in the back of his mind, a tiny thought about injury sneaking in. I wonder if he gives any voice to that thought.
 
Savin Hillbilly

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The controversy about the interference call shouldn't be about the call itself, which was correct -- Turner was on the wrong side of the line, and his presence there hindered Gurriel from finishing the play. The issue is that that call is almost never made unless the interference is comically egregious. So the 7th inning of a close WS elimination game is a helluva weird time to start getting all strict constructionist with the rule book.
 
deythur

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luckysox said:
I'm assuming the hook will be swift with Greinke, depending on the score. If he gets banged around early, or he gets through the order twice, he's pulled. Then we'll see Cole, and he's gonna throw as long as he's effective, which, frankly, I expect would be awhile. He's a physical horse, he seems to lean into the pressure of the post season, and he's looking for his first ring. I could see the guy summoning his inner '99 Pedro and being damn good for more than an inning or two (ok, maybe not THAT good, but still, very effective).

I will ask this, though: he's about to get PAID...does that enter his mind when he's asked how much he can give? Because I assume he's never thrown 105 pitches and then been asked to pitch multiple, high leverage innings on two days rest, and he's got to have, in the back of his mind, a tiny thought about injury sneaking in. I wonder if he gives any voice to that thought.
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I think Urquidy is the guy they turn to if needed. He's been very effective and can go multiple innings. He also didn't seem bothered by the big stage.
 
luckysox

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Max Power said:
Randy Johnson hadn't pitched on zero days rest ever before 2001. How'd that work out for the Yankees?
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On that note, I think there's a fair chance Strasburg sees the hill in a tight game, too. He's 31, has had arm issues, has a ton of money already - he may see this as a chance he won't get again. I think for him it will come down to the Nats saying no to make sure he doesn't get injured, versus him saying he's ready to go.
edit: I see this was alluded to earlier in this thread.
 
santadevil

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I'm just happy that Max gets a chance to compete. Getting scratched in the World Series can't be easy and he's a competitor. This will light a fire under his ass I think
 
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