2020 Pats: NE Trade Deadline Thread

What are your thoughts on the trade deadline?

  • The Patriots should be sellers and will be sellers

    Votes: 31 32.3%
  • The Patriots should be sellers but won't be sellers

    Votes: 44 45.8%
  • The Patriots should be buyers and will be buyers

    Votes: 3 3.1%
  • The Patriots should be buyers but won't be buyers

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • The Patriots won't buy or sell

    Votes: 16 16.7%

  • Total voters
    96

BigSoxFan

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After today’s debacle, you can’t help but wonder if the Pats will quietly look to deal some vets. I doubt they’re ready to throw in the towel just yet but a loss to Buffalo and the playoff race is effectively done. So, who could potentially be moved?

Gilmore: 30 years-old and under team control for another year. Hasn’t played well this year but still would provide immense value to anyone who acquired him. I would like a 1st but probably would settle for a 2nd and lower round pick.

Edelman: Doesn’t look healthy so probably not going anywhere but SF just lost Samuel for a few weeks so maybe they bring the local boy home. Wouldn’t fetch more than a 5th at this point.

White: Could help someone but going through tragedy so can’t imagine we’d trade him.

Thuney: Never pulled the trigger but would be able to helps many teams and probably the 2nd most valuable trade chip.

Others? McCourty’s? Guy?
 

E5 Yaz

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Burkhead's in the same category as White, in terms of role, but I can't imagine he'd bring much.
 

shoosh77

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I think Guy would be attractive to teams like Chiefs, Titans, Cardinals and Packers who are all giving up more than 4.6 YPC.

Simon used to be able to get to the QB, maybe someone flips a late round pick for him (shoot even a 2022 pick is fine).

If they really throw in the towel then Gilmore or even Thuney could be on the move.

I’d bet one of the RBs is moved just to allow for and extended look at JJ. My bet would be Rex.
 

BaseballJones

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What I'd try...

- Trade Cam to Dallas. They literally have nobody at QB. They still have a ton of talent on offense, but Dak is out for the year and Dalton got killed on the field yesterday. Cam would be perfect for them as he could be there for just the rest of the year, while Dallas, incredibly, is still contending for the division title. I know bringing in a QB like this is highly unusual and it would be hard for Cam to learn a new offense on the fly. But even at that he HAS to be much better than what they currently have. Even if all they get is a 6th round pick or whatever, that's fine.

- Trade Gilmore to Seattle. They are in DESPERATE need of a big-time defender. What will keep them from winning it all is that they can't stop anyone. Gilmore would be perfect for them, as their corners really struggle. Trade Gilmore and a 5th to Seattle for their 2nd and 4th round picks. Or trade Gilmore and Simon (they also need pass-rushing help) for a 2021 2nd and a 2022 2nd. In my dream world (i.e., not connected to reality) they trade Gilmore and Simon and Harry and receive Metcalf in return. :)

- Trade Cunningham to Tampa Bay. They need help at the tackle position. Receive OJ Howard in return. He's on season-ending IR for them and is of no use. They have Gronk and Brate anyway. The Pats desperately need help at TE moving forward. Since this is a fire sale it doesn't matter to NE if Howard can do nothing for them this year.

- Trade Thuney to anyone for a 2nd round pick. Thuney wouldn't have to just go to a contender. He'd be a guy any team would love to have. Including New England, of course. But if NE is going to be rebuilding, given his contract situation, now's the time to move him and get something good in return.

- Trade Edelman to Tampa Bay. I know, I know, I know, why would Tampa have any interest in doing this? All I can say is that as much as Tom loves his guys right now, there HAS to be a level of comfort, a level of excitement, that would come from playing with Edelman. Even if all they got was a 7th rounder in return.

Other guys I'd try to move:

- Rex Burkhead. Like him a lot as a player, but he might be able to fetch a late pick.
- Lawrence Guy. Like him too, a lot. He could really help a team struggling to stop the run.
- Shaq Mason. Lots of teams would love to have this guy. Still a high level player who could fetch a pretty decent return, IMO.
 

bsj

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Its crazy that a couple weeks ago I thought I'd be posting about the desperately needed WRs we could trade for. Now, this potentiality.

Here's the thing. I dont know if BB wants to go full rebuild at this point. Is there a concern dealing Gilly and a couple more big ticket players will be setting us up for that? We'd be entering 2021 with a bare cupboard and not even, barring something unforeseen, a real chance at a QB upgrade next year via the draft. We will be probably 10-15 in round 1, too late for a stud, and with too many holes thanks to these trades to trade up for one. Which means, at best, trying to begin piecing it together for the long haul.

I just dont see BB doing that at this point in his career.

I could see them being strategic sellers, trying to clear enough room to get at least a little cap room for next year in hopes that the return of some of our opt outs, plus a good draft, plus a couple smart FAs including, likely, a veteran QB, can get us back to a playoff level.

I miss Brady.
 

Captaincoop

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Gilmore is the obvious piece to be moved. He's capable of being an impact player and he plays a position where the Pats have young talent behind him. Maybe Thuney as well due to the contract situation with him.

I don't see them moving Guy or Mason. If they do, that's just one more position they need to worry about in FA or the draft.

In the NFL, you can almost completely reload in a year if you have a competent organization. In 2021 they should be looking to compete for a playoff spot again.

Edit: the real juicy conversation is...who the heck are they going to find to play QB?
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think they'll sell off but I'd say there are only 4 guys on the roster who we would want to trade and would get a real return (ie anything above a 7th):
GIlmore
Thuney
Andrews
I don't see them moving Guy or Mason. If they do, that's just one more position they need to worry about in FA or the draft.
Guy is an unrestricted FA after the season, so moving him doesn't have much impact on planning at that position
 

Mystic Merlin

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Thuney isn’t fetching a second round pick. His contract expires after the season, and he would be due for a sizable raise if tagged again. Teams are just not going to part with high draft picks for guys they need to pay a lot of money while facing such uncertainty about revenue. If I am the Pats, I try to re-sign Thuney, and if that fails pocket the comp pick.

I really think it can’t be overstated how hesitant teams will be to trade meaningful draft assets (read: cost controlled talent) for expensive players when they’re not bringing in the usual revenue and the 2021 cap is very likely to fall.
 

DJnVa

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We will be probably 10-15 in round 1, too late for a stud, and with too many holes thanks to these trades to trade up for one. Which means, at best, trying to begin piecing it together for the long haul.
Right now we'd pick 10th. We're 11th (from bottom) in net points. If we deal Gilmore, there's not much reason to think we'd climb much higher is there? Teams drafting around 15 are usually around 7 wins.

Anyway, why do we think this would be a protracted thing? Two years ago, the Cardinals won 3 games. The Raiders won 3 games. The Niners won 4 games. The Bills won 6 games.

Things can turn around fast in the NFL.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Aren't they going to get round 3 comp picks for Thuney and Gilmore if they let them walk as FA? If so, I think they'd have to get at least a second for them for a trade to make any sense.
 

Captaincoop

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Aren't they going to get round 3 comp picks for Thuney and Gilmore if they let them walk as FA? If so, I think they'd have to get at least a second for them for a trade to make any sense.
The comp picks are the following year, though, right? If you could get a 2021 second or third for Gilmore instead of a 2022 late 3rd, it would probably be worthwhile at this point.
 

tims4wins

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Thuney isn’t fetching a second round pick. His contract expires after the season, and he would be due for a sizable raise if tagged again. Teams are just not going to part with high draft picks for guys they need to pay a lot of money while facing such uncertainty about revenue. If I am the Pats, I try to re-sign Thuney, and if that fails pocket the comp pick.

I really think it can’t be overstated how hesitant teams will be to trade meaningful draft assets (read: cost controlled talent) for expensive players when they’re not bringing in the usual revenue and the 2021 cap is very likely to fall.
Jamie Collins fetched a 3rd in similar circumstances. Not sure how you'd rate Thuney vs. Collins at time of trade. I think Thuney could get a bit more in return. YMMV.
The comp picks are the following year, though, right? If you could get a 2021 second or third for Gilmore instead of a 2022 late 3rd, it would probably be worthwhile at this point.
On the flip side, with far less film on the 2021 class (and a weird season).. you could probably make the argument that the Pats would be better off stocking up on 2022 picks.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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  1. "To Tell The Truth"
  2. "Deal or No Deal"
  3. "The Match Game"
  4. "The Biggest Loser"
  5. "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?
Not as fun as when we were playing "The Amazing Race" and "Survivor", but whatcha gonna do?
 

Ralphwiggum

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Edit: the real juicy conversation is...who the heck are they going to find to play QB?
Isn't this the whole ballgame? It's a QB league, you aren't winning anything in the NFL without a QB playing at a very high level. Cam looks cooked, Stid doesn't appear to be the successor to Brady. They need to find a QB somehow.
 

tims4wins

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Isn't this the whole ballgame? It's a QB league, you aren't winning anything in the NFL without a QB playing at a very high level. Cam looks cooked, Stid doesn't appear to be the successor to Brady. They need to find a QB somehow.
Moreover, I don't get the impression that BB wants a $40-45M cap number for his QB. If he got gifted Wilson or Mahomes right now obviously he'd figure it out, but I bet he wants to be somewhere south of that like with Brady. It's really solidifying the point that the Pats were extremely lucky to have Brady playing on favorable contracts.
 

brandonchristensen

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Don’t we have a 20M or so cap hit for Brady this year? Why sell off in a weird year when everything is botched right now from that?

Next year we can try and add some good pieces with the money we are saving, no?

Gilmore May net something good so he may be worth trading, but don’t blow up the team on a COVID year when a bunch of players opted out.
 

rodderick

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Don’t we have a 20M or so cap hit for Brady this year? Why sell off in a weird year when everything is botched right now from that?

Next year we can try and add some good pieces with the money we are saving, no?

Gilmore May net something good so he may be worth trading, but don’t blow up the team on a COVID year when a bunch of players opted out.
Hightower aside, which of the players who opted out would be making a difference for this team? They have no talent at offensive skill positions and the QB play has ranged from adequate to horrific, how would that be fixed by the opt outs being back? This team needs an infusion of young talent, they arguably needed an infusion of young talent back in 2018, I think the only way forward here is through a rebuild, especially considering they have no QB of the future and their best defensive players are old.
 

RedOctober3829

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The first reaction to this debacle of a season is to trade everyone. Well, that's not happening. With the amount of holes they already need to fill in the offseason, you are not going to create more by trying to move everyone under the sun. The thing they need to figure out and make a command decision on is whether Stephon Gilmore is going to be a long-term piece for this team. If his camp has not been receptive to staying or if there hasn't been any talks of an extension yet, you explore moving him. We know they tried to move him around the draft, so it sounds like they are already down the road of a breakup. If he can get a Day 2 pick or a 1st(not likely), then I think you should do it. It depends what the bidding war would be on him, but Joe Thuney is probably not fetching more than a Day 3 pick, so I'd be inclined to keep him for the rest of the season and get the 3rd round comp pick if he's out the door.

Right now we'd pick 10th. We're 11th (from bottom) in net points. If we deal Gilmore, there's not much reason to think we'd climb much higher is there? Teams drafting around 15 are usually around 7 wins.

Anyway, why do we think this would be a protracted thing? Two years ago, the Cardinals won 3 games. The Raiders won 3 games. The Niners won 4 games. The Bills won 6 games.

Things can turn around fast in the NFL.
I think things can start to turn around for the Pats, but a lot would have to break right. The QB situation has to get figured out and theyneed to invest some major dollars into their offense which would be a change in philosophy from Bill, but that's what needs to happen. If you're not developing skill guys through the draft(obviously they have not), you need to pay for free agents. No more paying peanuts for reclamation WR projects or leaving the TE position out to dry.

What's becoming as concerning for me is the defense. At one point in the 2nd half yesterday, SF was averaging 8.5 yards per offensive play. I've never seen a Belichick coached defense get constantly gashed with big play after big play. Lawrence Guy is their best front seven player to this point and he's a free agent. So is Deatrich Wise. We haven't seen anything from Uche yet and Jennings has not looked good at all. Bentley is a liability because of the lack of speed and even if Hightower is back who knows how he looks being a year older and a whole year away from the game.

The lack of good drafts in the last 3-4 years have come to roost.
 

tims4wins

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The first reaction to this debacle of a season is to trade everyone. Well, that's not happening. With the amount of holes they already need to fill in the offseason, you are not going to create more by trying to move everyone under the sun. The thing they need to figure out and make a command decision on is whether Stephon Gilmore is going to be a long-term piece for this team. If his camp has not been receptive to staying or if there hasn't been any talks of an extension yet, you explore moving him. We know they tried to move him around the draft, so it sounds like they are already down the road of a breakup. If he can get a Day 2 pick or a 1st(not likely), then I think you should do it. It depends what the bidding war would be on him, but Joe Thuney is probably not fetching more than a Day 3 pick, so I'd be inclined to keep him for the rest of the season and get the 3rd round comp pick if he's out the door.


I think things can start to turn around for the Pats, but a lot would have to break right. The QB situation has to get figured out and theyneed to invest some major dollars into their offense which would be a change in philosophy from Bill, but that's what needs to happen. If you're not developing skill guys through the draft(obviously they have not), you need to pay for free agents. No more paying peanuts for reclamation WR projects or leaving the TE position out to dry.

What's becoming as concerning for me is the defense. At one point in the 2nd half yesterday, SF was averaging 8.5 yards per offensive play. I've never seen a Belichick coached defense get constantly gashed with big play after big play. Lawrence Guy is their best front seven player to this point and he's a free agent. So is Deatrich Wise. We haven't seen anything from Uche yet and Jennings has not looked good at all. Bentley is a liability because of the lack of speed and even if Hightower is back who knows how he looks being a year older and a whole year away from the game.

The lack of good drafts in the last 3-4 years have come to roost.
Just picking out one line here but the first four games of 2017 were arguably worse.

The defense was also really bad circa 2011.
 

brandonchristensen

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Hightower aside, which of the players who opted out would be making a difference for this team? They have no talent at offensive skill positions and the QB play has ranged from adequate to horrific, how would that be fixed by the opt outs being back? This team needs an infusion of young talent, they arguably needed an infusion of young talent back in 2018, I think the only way forward here is through a rebuild, especially considering they have no QB of the future and their best defensive players are old.
Maybe it was less than I thought, I seemed to recall lots of announcements.

Either way, we will have a lot more cap space next year to plug in skill players while getting younger in positions from the draft.
 

EL Jeffe

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Gilmore is really the one guy I could see them moving who could fetch real value. Someone above mentioned Seattle, but they already mortgaged a ton of draft capital to acquire Jamal Adams. There are also only so many teams with the cap space to absorb Gilmore's contract, too. That said, if teams can be creative, there should be a market. SF, Arizona, GB, Oakland, KC, Pitt, Cleveland - they strike me as teams that would be interested.
 

AlNipper49

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Gilmore is really the one guy I could see them moving who could fetch real value. Someone above mentioned Seattle, but they already mortgaged a ton of draft capital to acquire Jamal Adams. There are also only so many teams with the cap space to absorb Gilmore's contract, too. That said, if teams can be creative, there should be a market. SF, Arizona, GB, Oakland, KC, Pitt, Cleveland - they strike me as teams that would be interested.
I think that they are only ~3m under the cap, so you'd need some creative accounting to make it work.
 

tims4wins

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I think that has a whole lot to do with the offense being horrible, though.
I agree with this. The D has not been good. But for years we have seen a great Patriots offense make a mediocre D look better than it was in terms of the points per game allowed stat.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Edit: the real juicy conversation is...who the heck are they going to find to play QB?
I'm curious about Beathard, who's looked good in spot duty. Perhaps Shanahan might be willing to send BB a delayed "thank you" for steering Jimmy G. their way two years ago? Beathard and a 2nd for Gilmore, if SF can get the cap to work, and draft the developmental QB.

Edit: If I'm reading the numbers right, SF has $2.4M in 2020 cap space, so easier said than done...
 

RedOctober3829

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I agree with this. The D has not been good. But for years we have seen a great Patriots offense make a mediocre D look better than it was in terms of the points per game allowed stat.
Points allowed is not going to be a stat that gets covered up by a good offense. You either give up the points or you don't. Could you win games at times with a better offense? Sure. Right now, by the only metric that matters this defense is performing the worst of any Patriots defense in a long time.
 

DJnVa

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Points allowed is not going to be a stat that gets covered up by a good offense. You either give up the points or you don't. Could you win games at times with a better offense? Sure. Right now, by the only metric that matters this defense is performing the worst of any Patriots defense in a long time.
If the offense has 8 and 9 play drives and gets points on them that changes the amount of times the opponent has the ball and changes the game state, which could lead to the other team becoming more one dimensional. That's not even talking about the fact that our defense rarely gets a nice long break on the sideline these days.
 

DJnVa

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If we're throwing things against the wall, Cleveland just lost OBJ--no one has that skillset, but why not see if they'll do a BROWNSTOWN!! offer for JE? Maybe toss Njoku back.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Points allowed is not going to be a stat that gets covered up by a good offense. You either give up the points or you don't. Could you win games at times with a better offense? Sure. Right now, by the only metric that matters this defense is performing the worst of any Patriots defense in a long time.
This isn’t true. A good offense affords the defense several advantages that will add up over the course of a game or season, especially better average starting field position (fewer turnovers, fewer punts). There can be a schematic advantage to having leads, especially multi score leads, but the biggest advantage is, simply put, a defense will generally get to defend a longer field more often with a good offense on its side.

Yesterday was not a very illustrative example given that the defense was very bad regardless of SF’s starting field position.

The 2011 team is a fantastic example of a poor defense being buttressed by a great offense. They were middle of the pack in points allowed but 30th in defensive DVOA.
 

rodderick

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Points allowed is not going to be a stat that gets covered up by a good offense. You either give up the points or you don't. Could you win games at times with a better offense? Sure. Right now, by the only metric that matters this defense is performing the worst of any Patriots defense in a long time.
Turnovers, punts and opponent starting field position are absolutely crucial when it comes to how many points your defense gives up. If your offense keeps the ball, doesn't turn it over and routinely drives into opponent territory, you're going to give up fewer points.
 

tims4wins

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Points allowed is not going to be a stat that gets covered up by a good offense. You either give up the points or you don't. Could you win games at times with a better offense? Sure. Right now, by the only metric that matters this defense is performing the worst of any Patriots defense in a long time.
What @DJnVa said, but again go back to say 2011. Pats finished 31st in yards allowed. But only 15th in points. Due to combination of factors including field position, special teams, etc. But one other point on having a good offense is that when a team is ahead by multiple scores in the second half, the opponent usually doesn't kick field goals, instead going for 4th downs. So points can be artificially reduced. Whereas when the Pats are behind, their opponents are more than happy to kick field goals.

There are a lot of factors, but everything we've seen from the Pats in the last 10-15 years suggests to me that a good offense helps keeps points against down.
 

rodderick

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This isn’t true. A good offense affords the defense several advantages that will add up over the course of a game or season, especially better average starting field position (fewer turnovers, fewer punts). There can be a schematic advantage to having leads, especially multi score leads, but the biggest advantage is, simply put, a defense will generally get to defend a longer field more often with a good offense on its side.

Yesterday was not a very illustrative example given that the defense was very bad regardless of SF’s starting field position.

The 2011 team is a fantastic example of a poor defense being buttressed by a great offense. They were middle of the pack in points allowed but 30th in defensive DVOA.
Even worse, the 2017 Patriots ranked 5th in points allowed and 31st in DVOA as well.
 

BaseballJones

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This is what makes last year's defense so incredible. They were #1 in points allowed, #1 in yards allowed, and #1 in DVOA (along with #1 in pro-football-reference's DSRS rating and #2 in takeaways). That was truly an all-time great defense.

Which makes it unfathomable that they lost to Miami like they did.
 

RedOctober3829

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Turnovers, punts and opponent starting field position are absolutely crucial when it comes to how many points your defense gives up. If your offense keeps the ball, doesn't turn it over and routinely drives into opponent territory, you're going to give up fewer points.
You could have a great offense that consistently puts up points and drives it into opponents' territory and still give up a ton of points. Look at Seattle this year. You would think their defense would be in position to defend long fields with a better chance of forcing punts because of their offense gives them good field position yet they are giving up 24 ppg because their defense is bad. The Patriots are starting to look like a bad defense which is a change from the past. They are not stopping the run(27th in rush ypg) and that is putting what is otherwise a good unit against the pass in terrible down and distance situations. If it's consistently 3rd and short, you can't take advantage of your strength . Even in the game yesterday where they had SF in 3rd and long early in the game when it was still in the balance, they gave up huge plays down the field for 1st downs. I'm also questioning the schemes the Pats were using. On the radio, Zo was asking

What @DJnVa said, but again go back to say 2011. Pats finished 31st in yards allowed. But only 15th in points. Due to combination of factors including field position, special teams, etc. But one other point on having a good offense is that when a team is ahead by multiple scores in the second half, the opponent usually doesn't kick field goals, instead going for 4th downs. So points can be artificially reduced. Whereas when the Pats are behind, their opponents are more than happy to kick field goals.

There are a lot of factors, but everything we've seen from the Pats in the last 10-15 years suggests to me that a good offense helps keeps points against down.
You both are correct in saying that field position plays a major factor. Just look at the SB win against LAR. But, yesterday the 49ers had TD drives of 9 plays/75 yards, 7 plays/84 yards, and 6 plays/79 yards. So yes the offense turning the ball over have put the defense in bad situations, but when SF started deep in their own territory they drove it down easily as well. Denver had 2 scoring drives of over 80 yards. KC had 3 scoring drives of over 75 yards and another one that was 70. LV had 2 scoring drives over 75 yards. Seattle had 3.
 

DJnVa

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You both are correct in saying that field position plays a major factor. Just look at the SB win against LAR. But, yesterday the 49ers had TD drives of 9 plays/75 yards, 7 plays/84 yards, and 6 plays/79 yards. So yes the offense turning the ball over have put the defense in bad situations, but when SF started deep in their own territory they drove it down easily as well. Denver had 2 scoring drives of over 80 yards. KC had 3 scoring drives of over 75 yards and another one that was 70. LV had 2 scoring drives over 75 yards. Seattle had 3.
Yes.

But your point was points allowed wouldn't be covered by a good offense. Maybe you mean points allowed/drive? Because TOTAL points would have to be impacted by a team having fewer possessions and shorter fields. How could it not?
 

Super Nomario

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Jamie Collins fetched a 3rd in similar circumstances. Not sure how you'd rate Thuney vs. Collins at time of trade. I think Thuney could get a bit more in return. YMMV.
Thuney plays an even less premium position and has a much less favorable contract. Collins was still on his rookie deal; Thuney, on the franchise tag, costs the prorated portion of $14 MM. I'd be surprised if they can get a better pick for Thuney in trade than they'd get as a comp pick.

If the offense has 8 and 9 play drives and gets points on them that changes the amount of times the opponent has the ball and changes the game state, which could lead to the other team becoming more one dimensional. That's not even talking about the fact that our defense rarely gets a nice long break on the sideline these days.
The 49ers had the ball very few times yesterday (9 vs typical 11-12, and one of those 9 was for 14 seconds at the end of the half) and still put up 33 points. The truth is that yesterday the O made the D look worse but the D also made the O look worse. They were dogshit all around.
 

rodderick

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Yes.

But your point was points allowed wouldn't be covered by a good offense. Maybe you mean points allowed/drive? Because TOTAL points would have to be impacted by a team having fewer possessions and shorter fields. How could it not?
Even points allowed/drive is greatly impacted by field position. Seattle has the lowest average opponent starting field position in football, just imagine how atrocious their defense would be with a pedestrian/bad offense backing them up.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes.

But your point was points allowed wouldn't be covered by a good offense. Maybe you mean points allowed/drive? Because TOTAL points would have to be impacted by a team having fewer possessions and shorter fields. How could it not?
It is possible that in instances having a good offense would help a defense not have it's deficiencies exposed as much because of a longer field. However, for the most part if your defense isn't very good it isn't going to matter much in the long run if you're consistently doing what the Pats have done in the last few weeks. The Pats defenses of the past would give up the yards, but had a knack for forcing FG's consistently in and around the red area instead of TDs and gave Brady the chance to outscore opponents. This year moreso than ever is the opposite. They need the defense to get off the field and they just aren't doing it.
 

E5 Yaz

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Apr 25, 2002
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If we can see that Edelman isn't the same player that he's been, and the media is talking openly about his knee, why doesn't anyone think an opposing team would give anything of value for him?

We all know how Belichick loves to move around the board with late-round picks, but the point now is that they don't need serviceable guys with flaws, they need talent. Gilmore and Thuney and the only two chips that could bring a third or better.

Of course, none of it matters unless those doing the drafting do a better job identifying talent