2021-22 NBA In-Season News/Transactions

Cesar Crespo

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https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/

While we received overwhelming interest in this project from individuals like Jez, others declined participation. Some felt that as a whole, catch-all stats are flawed and do not very accurately measure talent or performance.

“I don’t really use any,” said one executive, who is the president of basketball operations for a team in the Eastern Conference. “They are all pretty bad.”

Others were less critical but felt that while all-in-one composite metrics are constantly getting better, the future of analytics is headed away from these measurements altogether.

“If I could add a wrinkle to your story, it would be that all-in-one stats are overused – that the next phase of basketball analytics is all about context-dependent numbers,” said another front office member from the Western Conference. “That would be the most honest quote I could give.”
Crazy stuff! Pile on though. All in Ones, all the rage. Nope, going out the door.
 

Kliq

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Sounds like a bad time to unveil my new all-in-one statistic, Denying And Negating Gambles And Defending Zero Use Rebounds In Contact aka DANGADZURIC.
 

BigSoxFan

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Seems like his mental health issues may be on the mend. Thoughts and prayers.
The guy has had months to get ready and this is basketball, not the NFL. He should be able to play some minutes right now and then scale it up in the coming weeks with the added conditioning.

I wish I could bet on him dodging that Philly game. I’ll be so pleasantly surprised if he actually shows up and plays.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Zion has a lot less leverage than he thinks he has. The owners are not going to play along.
Love the certitude. Wish I could predict the future with such confidence but recent NBA history is not aligned with you here. If I had to bet, Griffin's successor will be tasked with resolving this situation either via trading him away or placating him by acquiring players with whom he wants to hoop. The Governors are mostly business people who understand that as soon as a player is "unhappy" they are immediately discounted. Playing hardball costs both sides but teams don't seem to behave as if they have the leverage some people ascribe to them.
 

Swedgin

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Love the certitude. Wish I could predict the future with such confidence but recent NBA history is not aligned with you here. If I had to bet, Griffin's successor will be tasked with resolving this situation either via trading him away or placating him by acquiring players with whom he wants to hoop. The Governors are mostly business people who understand that as soon as a player is "unhappy" they are immediately discounted. Playing hardball costs both sides but teams don't seem to behave as if they have the leverage some people ascribe to them.
It's wise to be humble when divining the future, but I tend to agree that the league will not treat Zion in the same fashion as a Harden, Westbrook, Paul George etc. Potential stars still on their rookie deals forcing their way out of town is an existential threat to the league. A majority of the league's markets depend on the draft and restricted free agency to acquire and retain high end talent.

Is there a recent example of a guy on a rookie contract demanding a trade (when the incumbent team wants to keep him - i.e. not Bagley) and getting dealt? There is the Knicks/Porzingis, but I recall the feeling between the organization and player as being mutual.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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It's wise to be humble when divining the future, but I tend to agree that the league will not treat Zion in the same fashion as a Harden, Westbrook, Paul George etc. Potential stars still on their rookie deals forcing their way out of town is an existential threat to the league. A majority of the league's markets depend on the draft and restricted free agency to acquire and retain high end talent.

Is there a recent example of a guy on a rookie contract demanding a trade (when the incumbent team wants to keep him - i.e. not Bagley) and getting dealt? There is the Knicks/Porzingis, but I recall the feeling between the organization and player as being mutual.
Cam Reddish asked for a trade from Atlanta and got one, but it was because he wanted more playing time and he didn't sit out or make his demand public in the meantime. Not sure if he's in the "his team wanted to keep him" bucket or not. Worked out pretty bad for his since his minutes got slashed in New York.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's wise to be humble when divining the future, but I tend to agree that the league will not treat Zion in the same fashion as a Harden, Westbrook, Paul George etc. Potential stars still on their rookie deals forcing their way out of town is an existential threat to the league. A majority of the league's markets depend on the draft and restricted free agency to acquire and retain high end talent.

Is there a recent example of a guy on a rookie contract demanding a trade (when the incumbent team wants to keep him - i.e. not Bagley) and getting dealt? There is the Knicks/Porzingis, but I recall the feeling between the organization and player as being mutual.
He only has a year left. He doesn't really have to demand a trade. Zion will be moved or walk for nothing.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It's wise to be humble when divining the future, but I tend to agree that the league will not treat Zion in the same fashion as a Harden, Westbrook, Paul George etc. Potential stars still on their rookie deals forcing their way out of town is an existential threat to the league. A majority of the league's markets depend on the draft and restricted free agency to acquire and retain high end talent.

Is there a recent example of a guy on a rookie contract demanding a trade (when the incumbent team wants to keep him - i.e. not Bagley) and getting dealt? There is the Knicks/Porzingis, but I recall the feeling between the organization and player as being mutual.
I agree the rookie deal makes it more murky but again, if you look at this purely in economic terms it makes it simpler. The Pelicans have an asset that is now discounted - we can debate how much but the Zion they control is not the Zion that entered this season. Furthermore its a depreciating asset in terms of team control. Absent repairing their relationship with these players, I think they are deciding to cut their losses and move on quickly. From where I sit, it feels like these situations tend to impact teams from the locker-room to roster building so it always feels like moving on ASAP is the best course for both sides.
 

HomeRunBaker

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slamminsammya

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It's wise to be humble when divining the future, but I tend to agree that the league will not treat Zion in the same fashion as a Harden, Westbrook, Paul George etc. Potential stars still on their rookie deals forcing their way out of town is an existential threat to the league. A majority of the league's markets depend on the draft and restricted free agency to acquire and retain high end talent.

Is there a recent example of a guy on a rookie contract demanding a trade (when the incumbent team wants to keep him - i.e. not Bagley) and getting dealt? There is the Knicks/Porzingis, but I recall the feeling between the organization and player as being mutual.
Existential threat? Please explain? Or you mean its a threat to parity?

Young stars forcing their way out is incredibly commonplace in world Soccer and they seem to be doing just fine.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Zion has a lot less leverage than he thinks he has. The owners are not going to play along.
Zion has a ton of leverage…..he isn’t under contract long term to the Pelicans and is a FA in 16 months. He doesn’t have to publicly demand a trade only make it known that he won’t be re-signing and the Pelicans won’t have a choice but to get some return.
 

Swedgin

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Yeah, I don't get the argument otherwise. He doesn't even have to make demands, really. Just play out the year.
He's a restricted FA in 16 months. He does not get to choose where to sign, Pels can match any deal.

If he wants that choice, he has to play next year and then play the year after on a qualifying offer. His qualifying offer is high given his draft slot, but passing on that guaranteed money is a huge risk given his injury history. However, maybe the Nike dollars are enough cushion to let him roll the dice.

I am not arguing that NO won't move him. I think they would (and should given his injury history) for the right package.
 
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Swedgin

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Existential threat? Please explain? Or you mean its a threat to parity?

Young stars forcing their way out is incredibly commonplace in world Soccer and they seem to be doing just fine.
Short version of explanation.

Winning a championship requires elite talent.
There are three ways to acquire talent in the NBA - via the draft, via trade and via FA.
The max salary makes it practically impossible (since they cannot compete on price) for all but a few destination markets to attract top tier FA.
Non-destination markets can trade for disgruntled high end talent, but its a risky proposition.
The draft is the most reliable course for non-destination markets to acquire top end talent.
The NBA needs teams in non-destination markets.
Fans of those teams need (at the least the illusion of) hope of eventually winning it all - which means they need to believe their team either has or will be able to eventually get a superstar.
The draft, rookie scale and RFA exist for the purpose of giving teams (especially non-destination markets) a period of control over young, elite talent.
There are more owners in non-destination markets then destination markets.

If a high profile player on a rookie scale contract forces his way out of a small market and the incumbent team is seen by the other owners as having been victimized, then I predict the next CBA will look radically different, following a lockout.

I don't follow soccer, but I thought several elite teams proposed abandoning their leagues to form a super-league and then ran away from the plan after massive public backlash.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The small market issue is absolutely a factor for the NBA and I don't know what the answer is. But pretending that an X year contract, even with some restrictions, will prevent a player from forcing their way out of a situation just isn't reality. It feels like the league is already acknowledging this and that the fans are a bit behind but YRMV.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's a restricted FA in 16 months. He does not get to choose where to sign, Pels can match any deal.

If he wants that choice, he has to play next year and then play the year after on a qualifying offer. His qualifying offer is high given his draft slot, but passing on that guaranteed money is a huge risk given his injury history. However, maybe the Nike dollars are enough cushion to let him roll the dice.

I am not arguing that NO won't move him. I think they would (and should given his injury history) for the right package.
With Zion’s injury history it may be best that he DOES sit out until he signs a max somewhere even if the Pelicans do match it.
 

lexrageorge

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Earlier this season we were told that Morey was going to have to dump Simmons for little, as Simmons/Klutch had all the leverage. Now, Morey probably did end up paying a bit more than he wanted to get Harden, and it may turn out that Harden ends up being a negative return, but the same could be said for a lot of trades.

The CBA put in structures to allow small market teams to pay highly drafted, potential superstars more than any other team specifically to allow those smaller market teams to be able to get star players. The NBA owners are not going to facilitate young stars forcing their way out of their drafted teams for the reasons mentioned above. The draft is never going away no matter how much the purists hate it.

Zion will be sacrificing a ton of salary by leaving via RFA vs. the Designated Rookie Scale extension route. And maybe NO is projecting Zion's career peak to be extremely short lived (which is not unreasonable), so we'll see where this ends up.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I seem to recall that the debate wasn't necessarily the return for Simmons though there was certainly a lot of discussion around that. Instead I recall some suggesting that Morey had no need to deal Simmons any time soon because he was under a long-term contract. Returns are going to vary depending on the situation but from where I sit, the league seems to view contracts more liquidly than some fans.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I seem to recall that the debate wasn't necessarily the return for Simmons though there was certainly a lot of discussion around that. Instead I recall some suggesting that Morey had no need to deal Simmons any time soon because he was under a long-term contract. Returns are going to vary depending on the situation but from where I sit, the league seems to view contracts more liquidly than some fans.
Others thought Simmons had negative value on his contract/no value around the league.
 

slamminsammya

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Short version of explanation.

Winning a championship requires elite talent.
There are three ways to acquire talent in the NBA - via the draft, via trade and via FA.
The max salary makes it practically impossible (since they cannot compete on price) for all but a few destination markets to attract top tier FA.
Non-destination markets can trade for disgruntled high end talent, but its a risky proposition.
The draft is the most reliable course for non-destination markets to acquire top end talent.
The NBA needs teams in non-destination markets.
Fans of those teams need (at the least the illusion of) hope of eventually winning it all - which means they need to believe their team either has or will be able to eventually get a superstar.
The draft, rookie scale and RFA exist for the purpose of giving teams (especially non-destination markets) a period of control over young, elite talent.
There are more owners in non-destination markets then destination markets.

If a high profile player on a rookie scale contract forces his way out of a small market and the incumbent team is seen by the other owners as having been victimized, then I predict the next CBA will look radically different, following a lockout.

I don't follow soccer, but I thought several elite teams proposed abandoning their leagues to form a super-league and then ran away from the plan after massive public backlash.
Yeah, I get that fans want to have hope and its better for there to be parity but it isn't an existential issue.

The soccer thing you cited is not really related to the fact that in soccer most teams have zero hope of winning the league. But the fact remains soccer has rabid fans despite the majority of teams being resigned to never winning or coming close to winning the league and always having their best young players poached by the big fish.
 

lexrageorge

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I seem to recall that the debate wasn't necessarily the return for Simmons though there was certainly a lot of discussion around that. Instead I recall some suggesting that Morey had no need to deal Simmons any time soon because he was under a long-term contract. Returns are going to vary depending on the situation but from where I sit, the league seems to view contracts more liquidly than some fans.
There were definitely some posters that thought Morey absolutely had to trade Simmons during the offseason or early in the regular season, no matter the return. They were wrong. No matter what people think of Harden, this wasn't Kareem for Junior Bridgeman.

Yeah, I get that fans want to have hope and its better for there to be parity but it isn't an existential issue.

The soccer thing you cited is not really related to the fact that in soccer most teams have zero hope of winning the league. But the fact remains soccer has rabid fans despite the majority of teams being resigned to never winning or coming close to winning the league and always having their best young players poached by the big fish.
The US sports business is built on every team in the league having a shot at the league's best players. That includes the NBA.

Also, speaking of fish, I also acknowledge that the small vs. large market team thing could be a red herring when it comes to the Zion situation.
 

JakeRae

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He's a restricted FA in 16 months. He does not get to choose where to sign, Pels can match any deal.

If he wants that choice, he has to play next year and then play the year after on a qualifying offer. His qualifying offer is high given his draft slot, but passing on that guaranteed money is a huge risk given his injury history. However, maybe the Nike dollars are enough cushion to let him roll the dice.

I am not arguing that NO won't move him. I think they would (and should given his injury history) for the right package.
He doesn’t have to play a year on the QO. He can go out and get a 1+1 contract that NO would have to match. In other words, he can get paid for a year at the max and then leave. He leaves the higher tier max money he could get from NO on the table, but the idea that he would be stuck with either the QO or a long term deal NO could match is one born from a lack of creativity. Nothing requires Zion to sign for four years instead of 1 and he’s good enough that a team hunting for him would probably be willing to make the offer (not many players have a level of talent where that is true).
 

Cellar-Door

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He doesn’t have to play a year on the QO. He can go out and get a 1+1 contract that NO would have to match. In other words, he can get paid for a year at the max and then leave. He leaves the higher tier max money he could get from NO on the table, but the idea that he would be stuck with either the QO or a long term deal NO could match is one born from a lack of creativity. Nothing requires Zion to sign for four years instead of 1 and he’s good enough that a team hunting for him would probably be willing to make the offer (not many players have a level of talent where that is true).
nope.
Offer sheets must be at least 2 standard guaranteed years (not options). Also NOP could offer him the max QO which is 5 years, max w/ 8% raises and no bonuses, options etc. If they do that then any offer sheet has to be 3 years guaranteed minimum.

So, if Zion wants to get out without a trade his best option is hoping for the standard QO and signing it.
 

TripleOT

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Zion probably makes enough endorsement money to eschew the first extension off his rookie deal. Zion would be taking more of a risk due to his injury history. He could milk this year‘s injury, light it up next year, and do a Kawhi his final season of Pelicans control.

Some day, some rookie scale player is going to walk on his drafting team instead of taking the guaranteed nine figure payday. I can see LaMelo Ball forcing his way to LA if MJ doesn’t put a contending roster around him.
 

ManicCompression

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Short version of explanation.

Winning a championship requires elite talent.
There are three ways to acquire talent in the NBA - via the draft, via trade and via FA.
The max salary makes it practically impossible (since they cannot compete on price) for all but a few destination markets to attract top tier FA.
Non-destination markets can trade for disgruntled high end talent, but its a risky proposition.
The draft is the most reliable course for non-destination markets to acquire top end talent.
The NBA needs teams in non-destination markets.
Fans of those teams need (at the least the illusion of) hope of eventually winning it all - which means they need to believe their team either has or will be able to eventually get a superstar.
The draft, rookie scale and RFA exist for the purpose of giving teams (especially non-destination markets) a period of control over young, elite talent.
There are more owners in non-destination markets then destination markets.

If a high profile player on a rookie scale contract forces his way out of a small market and the incumbent team is seen by the other owners as having been victimized, then I predict the next CBA will look radically different, following a lockout.

I don't follow soccer, but I thought several elite teams proposed abandoning their leagues to form a super-league and then ran away from the plan after massive public backlash.
Last season's champion was the Milwaukee Bucks. The Spurs were a dynasty for 15+ years. Cleveland won a championship. Toronto won a championship. Miami - somehow a "small market team" in baseball - won several championships in the NBA. GSW - viewed as a "small market team" for many years - has been a monster team since 2014. I put small market in quotes because the definition seems to change with the wind - Jerry Reinsdorf would have you believe Chicago is a small market.

Those teams got to where they did on account of a variety of different routes - some luck mixed with skill and good timing - but there is no reason that a small market team can't compete for a championship in the NBA. Absolutely none. Now, teams will find it very hard to win with a shitty owner, and unfortunately those have been very common in places like New Orleans, Minnesota, Charlotte, Sacramento, etc. But that's a different problem than the size of the market, and it's one that teams in New York and LA have had to deal with as well. When was the last time the location and financial power of the Knicks helped them compete? Carmelo? Was that even beneficial to them for more than one season?

For all of the gnashing about Super Teams, we haven't see them be all that successful. Yeah, Durant went to GSW, but that was a formerly homegrown team and they would have probably won just as many championships without him and it was over almost as soon as it started. Davis and Lebron won a single championship, but the rest of Lebron's Lakers tenure has been an embarrassing punctuation to an amazing career. The Nets imploded within a calendar year. The Clippers have been the paper champions since Kawhi and George arrived. These teams steal the headlines, but they don't have a long string of titles to show for it. Instead, they just have huge luxury tax bills and aging players who sit out most of the season with serious injuries. Would you rather be the Grizzlies over the next three years or the Lakers?

If non-destination markets are struggling, it's entirely to do with bad ownership who hire bad personnel people (or who overrule their personnel people). Certain small market teams can't compete because they do things like pick Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. Even if the Kings could sign Durant, I highly doubt Ranadive would put even a player of his caliber in a position to be successful.
 

Swedgin

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Last season's champion was the Milwaukee Bucks. The Spurs were a dynasty for 15+ years. Cleveland won a championship. Toronto won a championship. Miami - somehow a "small market team" in baseball - won several championships in the NBA. GSW - viewed as a "small market team" for many years - has been a monster team since 2014. I put small market in quotes because the definition seems to change with the wind - Jerry Reinsdorf would have you believe Chicago is a small market.

Those teams got to where they did on account of a variety of different routes - some luck mixed with skill and good timing - but there is no reason that a small market team can't compete for a championship in the NBA. Absolutely none. Now, teams will find it very hard to win with a shitty owner, and unfortunately those have been very common in places like New Orleans, Minnesota, Charlotte, Sacramento, etc. But that's a different problem than the size of the market, and it's one that teams in New York and LA have had to deal with as well. When was the last time the location and financial power of the Knicks helped them compete? Carmelo? Was that even beneficial to them for more than one season?

For all of the gnashing about Super Teams, we haven't see them be all that successful. Yeah, Durant went to GSW, but that was a formerly homegrown team and they would have probably won just as many championships without him and it was over almost as soon as it started. Davis and Lebron won a single championship, but the rest of Lebron's Lakers tenure has been an embarrassing punctuation to an amazing career. The Nets imploded within a calendar year. The Clippers have been the paper champions since Kawhi and George arrived. These teams steal the headlines, but they don't have a long string of titles to show for it. Instead, they just have huge luxury tax bills and aging players who sit out most of the season with serious injuries. Would you rather be the Grizzlies over the next three years or the Lakers?

If non-destination markets are struggling, it's entirely to do with bad ownership who hire bad personnel people (or who overrule their personnel people). Certain small market teams can't compete because they do things like pick Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. Even if the Kings could sign Durant, I highly doubt Ranadive would put even a player of his caliber in a position to be successful.
My point is not that the current system makes it impossible for non-destination markets to win a title. They do operate at a competitive disadvantage. For a non-destination market unrestricted free agency is not a reliable path to acquiring top tier tier free agents. Outside of Lebron returning home, when was the last time a marquee unrestricted free agent (i.e. top 10 player in the league/best guy on a championship team caliber player) left his incumbent team to sign with a non-destination market? However, they can still build contenders - thanks to the combined impact of the draft, the rookie scale and restricted free agency.

The Bucks drafted and retained: Giannis
GSW drafted and retained: Curry, Klay and Draymond.
Cleveland drafted and retained Kyrie and was fortunate that one of the top 2 players of all time was born in Akron.
San Antonio drafted and retained Duncan, Parker and Ginobli.

Toronto is the outlier - having acquired their marque talent in a trade, who then left in free agency to go play in LA (injuries to KD and Klay didn't hurt either).

Non-destination markets are far from doomed. With good ownership, smart management and some luck they can win a title. However, that is only true so long as they have a mechanism to acquire and retain, as you say, "home grown" talent. If the league acquiesces to draftees refusing to sign with non-destination markets or forcing a trade while still on their rookie contracts then the system falls apart. It would deprive non-destination markets of their most reliable path to building a contender. If that comes to pass, a majority of owners will demand a fix. It will result in a lockout, in which the players will ultimately give up more autonomy (there are not enough Zions level players in the Union to continue giving up paychecks to fight and die on that hill). Whatever the new structure is, it will probably be a bad. The NBA has always been reactive. Whatever new incentive structure the league creates via the CBA inevitably leads to unintended negative consequences and a new problem to fix - rinse and repeat.
 

nighthob

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Zion has a ton of leverage…..he isn’t under contract long term to the Pelicans and is a FA in 16 months. He doesn’t have to publicly demand a trade only make it known that he won’t be re-signing and the Pelicans won’t have a choice but to get some return.
He only has a year left. He doesn't really have to demand a trade. Zion will be moved or walk for nothing.
Zion won’t be walking for nothing because there’s a zero percent chance that he plays a season on a QO contract. Given his conditioning issues that’s a gamble waaaaay too rich for his blood. If he leaves it will be the same way that Lonzo did, via sign & trade. How much will be coming the other way will be determined by what other teams feel Williamson’s long term viability is.

Convenient timing for both Ben and the Nets to avoid that circus. Eventually he’ll have to face it but no need to do so while you’re just getting your feet wet with your exhibition season taking place while others are in full swing.
My personal hope is that Philly charges up the standings post-Harden and meet Brooklyn in the first round. That promises me the most entertainment.
 

Euclis20

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Zion won’t be walking for nothing because there’s a zero percent chance that he plays a season on a QO contract. Given his conditioning issues that’s a gamble waaaaay too rich for his blood. If he leaves it will be the same way that Lonzo did, via sign & trade. How much will be coming the other way will be determined by what other teams feel Williamson’s long term viability is.



My personal hope is that Philly charges up the standings post-Harden and meet Brooklyn in the first round. That promises me the most entertainment.
It's just as likely the other way, I think. Philly is currently the 3 seed, Brooklyn is just 2.5 games out of 6th (just like Philly is 2.5 games out of 1st, in order to play the currently 8 seed Brooklyn). Really good shot either way, it's amazing how bunched up the east is.
 

lovegtm

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My point is not that the current system makes it impossible for non-destination markets to win a title. They do operate at a competitive disadvantage. For a non-destination market unrestricted free agency is not a reliable path to acquiring top tier tier free agents. Outside of Lebron returning home, when was the last time a marquee unrestricted free agent (i.e. top 10 player in the league/best guy on a championship team caliber player) left his incumbent team to sign with a non-destination market? However, they can still build contenders - thanks to the combined impact of the draft, the rookie scale and restricted free agency.

The Bucks drafted and retained: Giannis
GSW drafted and retained: Curry, Klay and Draymond.
Cleveland drafted and retained Kyrie and was fortunate that one of the top 2 players of all time was born in Akron.
San Antonio drafted and retained Duncan, Parker and Ginobli.

Toronto is the outlier - having acquired their marque talent in a trade, who then left in free agency to go play in LA (injuries to KD and Klay didn't hurt either).

Non-destination markets are far from doomed. With good ownership, smart management and some luck they can win a title. However, that is only true so long as they have a mechanism to acquire and retain, as you say, "home grown" talent. If the league acquiesces to draftees refusing to sign with non-destination markets or forcing a trade while still on their rookie contracts then the system falls apart. It would deprive non-destination markets of their most reliable path to building a contender. If that comes to pass, a majority of owners will demand a fix. It will result in a lockout, in which the players will ultimately give up more autonomy (there are not enough Zions level players in the Union to continue giving up paychecks to fight and die on that hill). Whatever the new structure is, it will probably be a bad. The NBA has always been reactive. Whatever new incentive structure the league creates via the CBA inevitably leads to unintended negative consequences and a new problem to fix - rinse and repeat.
The flawed assumption here is that young draftees will start doing this all the time. The current evidence is that if the organization is moderately well-run (even if not), they stick it out through the first 8 years, due to some combination of strong financial incentives and the loyalty that being in a franchise creates.

KAT hasn't made a peep in Minnesota, Fox re-upped in the Sac tire fire, etc. Simmons was more of a conflict with Embiid and management, and happened well after signing the big deal.

The only real threats to walk have been Porzingis and Zion, and the former situation is complicated by not knowing what the Knicks' evaluation of him was.

This feels like the super-teams debate, where something happens two times and people draw an up-and-to-the-right mental line through those points.
 

lars10

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Existential threat? Please explain? Or you mean its a threat to parity?

Young stars forcing their way out is incredibly commonplace in world Soccer and they seem to be doing just fine.
The bolded is true depending on what team you follow... I recall a few years back when Borussia Dortmund was playing Bayern and many of Borussia's best players were imminently going to be sold to play for Bayern.. leaving Borussia with money, but also the need to rebuild. If you don't have young, cheap talent in either the NBA or soccer (if you don't have a ton of money especially).. you're going to fail.

Soccer has also tried to implement fair play rules to try and level the playing field a little bit... but the same top teams are always going to be vying for the top trophies in their leagues and in champion's league... you may have a few outliers, but they're few and far between.
 

nighthob

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It's just as likely the other way, I think. Philly is currently the 3 seed, Brooklyn is just 2.5 games out of 6th (just like Philly is 2.5 games out of 1st, in order to play the currently 8 seed Brooklyn). Really good shot either way, it's amazing how bunched up the east is.
I’m a lot less bullish on three very thin-skinned/weird personalities being able to survive adversity. Embiid and Harden? I can see them thriving. Simmons not catching Kyrie’s mental illness? Not sure I can see that.
 

chilidawg

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I’m a lot less bullish on three very thin-skinned/weird personalities being able to survive adversity. Embiid and Harden? I can see them thriving. Simmons not catching Kyrie’s mental illness? Not sure I can see that.
The range of outcomes for both teams seems huge, anything from NBA Championship to complete catastrophe. Makes for good fun for fans from afar.
 

ManicCompression

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My point is not that the current system makes it impossible for non-destination markets to win a title. They do operate at a competitive disadvantage. For a non-destination market unrestricted free agency is not a reliable path to acquiring top tier tier free agents.
But free agency isn't a reliable path for anyone to build a contender. It hasn't worked out for LAC or the Nets because free agents are typically older and overpriced. Drafting is always the most consistent and proven way of building a team that contends for a longer window.

If the league acquiesces to draftees refusing to sign with non-destination markets or forcing a trade while still on their rookie contracts then the system falls apart.
This is so, so, so rare. Zion is a very unique case because he has a lot of endorsement money, but that's not the case for players even at the Giannis/Jokic level. They can't afford to sit out seasons or turn down the life-changing security of a max contract.

The other reason why it's rare is team incentives. I think you could argue, pretty reasonably, that the best thing the Pelicans could do is trade Zion away. Sure, he has a ton of talent, but he seems like, frankly, an incredibly lazy person who's body hasn't age well (and it's not like his metabolism will get better). The best Pelicans team is with a healthy, in-shape Zion, but since that's not likely to happen, the second best fit is trading him to a team like the Rockets for something along the lines of Green, Senguin and a boatload of picks. Or Shai in OKC plus picks. You see these guys get traded when there's opportunity and I'm not sure a team trading for Zion, after all of his injury/body stuff, is going to be looked at by history as the winner. Do you think Zion is an untouchable, championship level superstar (like a Giannis) after showing up every single season horrifically out of shape and marred by lower body injuries?

I don't believe this issue is existential or something for the league to address at all. It's blown out of proportion by a few rare and unique moments in history.
 

Cellar-Door

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you guys are all wrong btw...
THe funniest outcome is BRK taking their sweet time getting guys back, Harden and Embiid struggling to find equilibrium and falling to 7th, then BKN and PHI meeting in the play-in games
 

ManicCompression

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THe funniest outcome is BRK taking their sweet time getting guys back, Harden and Embiid struggling to find equilibrium and falling to 7th, then BKN and PHI meeting in the play-in games
Is this game funnier if hosted in Brooklyn, so Kyrie can't play, or hosted in Philly, so Simmons won't play?
 

Kliq

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Zion wanting to bail on New Orleans after less than 100 career games is a massive, massive problem for the NBA and something the league really hopes does not become a significant trend. He is the second supposed franchise cornerstone player (after Simmons) that has elected to not play for his team. You can say those situations are unique and are unlikely to be repeated, but I'm not sure that is the case. It even happening once is a disgrace to the game, and can work to submarine local interest in teams.
 

terrynever

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I wouldn't be surprised if Ben's first game is March 13 against the Knicks at home. I just don't see him playing in Philly on March 10.
Too bad. It would have been great theater to play in Philly. How tough is Ben when the fans start booing? We all want to know. It’s not just Philly fans. Most fans of playoff teams hosting the Nets will let Ben have it, especially at the free throw line.

One thing Ben could have worked on during his eight months off is free throw shooting. And perhaps his shooting form. What if he comes back and shoots 70 percent from the line, and proves it under pressure? I would like to see that. Most 76ers fans do not hate Ben the person.
 

ManicCompression

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Zion wanting to bail on New Orleans after less than 100 career games is a massive, massive problem for the NBA and something the league really hopes does not become a significant trend. He is the second supposed franchise cornerstone player (after Simmons) that has elected to not play for his team. You can say those situations are unique and are unlikely to be repeated, but I'm not sure that is the case. It even happening once is a disgrace to the game, and can work to submarine local interest in teams.
Why aren't Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Lamelo, Cade Cunningham, etc. all making similar noises from their small markets?

If a player wants to bitch and whine at this level, this early into his career, it's kind of a godsend for the team because they can still trade him for value. I would have no faith that Zion has what takes to be a winner in the NBA after this kind of behavior. Same with Simmons. And look at the outcome of the Simmons fiasco - he lost $20 million (how many players do you think will actually sacrifice that kind of money?) and was traded for a superior player (albeit one with his own track record of flakiness).
 

Fishy1

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Zion wanting to bail on New Orleans after less than 100 career games is a massive, massive problem for the NBA and something the league really hopes does not become a significant trend. He is the second supposed franchise cornerstone player (after Simmons) that has elected to not play for his team. You can say those situations are unique and are unlikely to be repeated, but I'm not sure that is the case. It even happening once is a disgrace to the game, and can work to submarine local interest in teams.
A disgrace? To a game? I'd like to hear the reasoning behind such emphatic language.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Zion probably makes enough endorsement money to eschew the first extension off his rookie deal. Zion would be taking more of a risk due to his injury history. He could milk this year‘s injury, light it up next year, and do a Kawhi his final season of Pelicans control.

Some day, some rookie scale player is going to walk on his drafting team instead of taking the guaranteed nine figure payday. I can see LaMelo Ball forcing his way to LA if MJ doesn’t put a contending roster around him.
Tellum was able to manipulate multiple teams selections in the Kobe draft so that Kobe could end up in LA. These types of things have gone on since agents became a thing. John Elway?

Meanwhile, the Pelicans sent out their season ticket email with no mention of Zion. Stars don’t play where they don’t want to play even if they are under contract. Simmons….Harden…now apparently Zion. I expect LeBron to be next. There is already rumblings about Brady ended up in SF soon.
 

Kliq

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Why aren't Ja Morant, Anthony Edwards, Lamelo, Cade Cunningham, etc. all making similar noises from their small markets?

If a player wants to bitch and whine at this level, this early into his career, it's kind of a godsend for the team because they can still trade him for value. I would have no faith that Zion has what takes to be a winner in the NBA after this kind of behavior. Same with Simmons. And look at the outcome of the Simmons fiasco - he lost $20 million (how many players do you think will actually sacrifice that kind of money?) and was traded for a superior player (albeit one with his own track record of flakiness).
Just because there are players who haven't wanted to bail on their teams yet does not mean that this isn't an issue. It happening only once should be a significant case for alarm. If there is only about a 10% chance that a cornerstone player is bailing on a team still on their rookie contract, that has to be considered a major problem for the NBA. Bad teams are sold on the hope of a brighter tomorrow, the more doubt about that brighter tomorrow taking place that seeps in, the harder it will be to drive local fan interest and help drive these teams forward, which is necessary because by their nature, these teams are already in pretty bad positions, which is how they got the top young player in the first place.

It's clear the NBA is moving more and more towards player movement happening at a quicker pace. We are not in the situation where teams are only looking at trading away disgruntled stars when they have a year left on their contract. Players are taking more aggressive measures to force trades and tying teams hands. It's gotten to the point now where players refuse to play until they are traded; I think that is a very bad thing for the NBA. Some people may enjoy the constant chaos and shuffling of star players around the league; personally it has led to a decline in interest on my end because nothing feels permanent which makes things feel less significant.
 

lars10

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I’m a lot less bullish on three very thin-skinned/weird personalities being able to survive adversity. Embiid and Harden? I can see them thriving. Simmons not catching Kyrie’s mental illness? Not sure I can see that.
What proof is there though that Harden can co-exist with any other player?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just because there are players who haven't wanted to bail on their teams yet does not mean that this isn't an issue. It happening only once should be a significant case for alarm. If there is only about a 10% chance that a cornerstone player is bailing on a team still on their rookie contract, that has to be considered a major problem for the NBA. Bad teams are sold on the hope of a brighter tomorrow, the more doubt about that brighter tomorrow taking place that seeps in, the harder it will be to drive local fan interest and help drive these teams forward, which is necessary because by their nature, these teams are already in pretty bad positions, which is how they got the top young player in the first place.

It's clear the NBA is moving more and more towards player movement happening at a quicker pace. We are not in the situation where teams are only looking at trading away disgruntled stars when they have a year left on their contract. Players are taking more aggressive measures to force trades and tying teams hands. It's gotten to the point now where players refuse to play until they are traded; I think that is a very bad thing for the NBA. Some people may enjoy the constant chaos and shuffling of star players around the league; personally it has led to a decline in interest on my end because nothing feels permanent which makes things feel less significant.
I don’t see this at all. The league has stars in small markets everywhere who openly love their city. Fox in Sacramento, Curry at Golden St, Morant in Memphis, etc. There have always been stars wanting out of where they play for a number of reasons. If anything, in todays worlds a market size has LESS impact than it did two decades ago. It used to be get to a big market to get endorsements, make more money, etc……now players are wanting to leave where they are, as has always been the case, but it isn’t about the money since they already are flush. Simmons didn’t leave Philly bc it’s a small market or bc of money. Harden didn’t want out of Brooklyn for those reasons. LeBron soon in LA……it isn’t a small market issue just look at the recent list champions.
 

ManicCompression

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Just because there are players who haven't wanted to bail on their teams yet does not mean that this isn't an issue. It happening only once should be a significant case for alarm. If there is only about a 10% chance that a cornerstone player is bailing on a team still on their rookie contract, that has to be considered a major problem for the NBA.
But why isn't this a problem for well-run teams? This discussion has been framed as "small markets" or "non-destination" teams are at a disadvantage, yet there are several small markets thriving. Looking at the standings, I don't see the correlation between big market/destination and winning. The real cause for alarm should be that Pelicans ownership was so asleep at the wheel for years that they had their president of Saints football operations also running the basketball team. Or that Sacramento is owned by a crazy person. These teams suck not because stars are asking out, but because the situations are so poisonous from top down that winning and attracting talent are impossible goals. Again - market size/location has nothing to do with it, just look at the Knicks.

I get the player movement thing, but I'll ask - what's the alternative? Longer contracts? We saw that and the league was inarguably worse because owners couldn't help themselves. They'd lock their team into 7 year contracts to Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Jerome James, etc. Having a cap sheet dedicated to bloated salaries of injured players for half a decade does not seem like hope to me.

I really think that players are seeing the extent to which the grass isn't always greener. May not happen immediately, but you can't help but notice that the players begging out, moving around - they don't seem happier for doing it. Meanwhile, Dame Lillard is a fucking legend in Portland for life, Ja Morant is already at that level in Memphis, Luka in Dallas, Giannis, etc. Players like that in their prime don't typically want to become secondary ballhandlers to someone else, even if it means possibly winning a championship.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tellum was able to manipulate multiple teams selections in the Kobe draft so that Kobe could end up in LA. These types of things have gone on since agents became a thing. John Elway?

Meanwhile, the Pelicans sent out their season ticket email with no mention of Zion. Stars don’t play where they don’t want to play even if they are under contract. Simmons….Harden…now apparently Zion. I expect LeBron to be next. There is already rumblings about Brady ended up in SF soon.
Jon Barry refused to play with the C's after being drafted. C's had to trade him for Alaa Abdelnaby.

Steve Francis refused to play for the Vancouver Grizzlies and was traded to Houston.

edit: I think Alaa still holds the NBA record for most A's in their name.