2021 Draft

RedOctober3829

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Jeff Passan says he's heard that the 2021 draft will be based upon the results of this year. This would be a huge development for the Red Sox who could end up with the #2 pick by the end of the week. They currently have the 3rd worst record but are only 1 game behind Texas for the #2 pick. The top 2 picks figure to be Vanderbilt pitchers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter(son of Al).

While MLB has yet to announce whether teams' 2020 records will determine draft order, a source familiar with the league's thinking said that the clause written into MLB's March agreement with the players' association that gave the league the right to determine draft order was a contingency in case the season was canceled well before records were indicative of much. Even though 60 games doesn't give the full picture of who's really good and who isn't, the source said it's highly likely that the draft order will be determined by this year's record.

Kumar Rocker(music on the video might be NSFW)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY55nMWBs2o


Jack Leiter
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5Sbm8YZ76I
 

BaseballJones

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The Red Sox really need a top-of-the-rotation starter that will be inexpensive - read: drafted player. There are two total studs in this draft. Naturally, Boston will finish 3rd.
 

edoug

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As of now they're tied for the 3rd worst record with Arizona, so if Murphy's Law holds true, the Sox will finish with the 4th pick.
If the end up tied, The D Backs had a better record in '19. That may give the Sox a slight advantage but who knows. I'm more concerned about Manfred's Law.
 

BigSoxFan

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Man, I really wanted Rocker as a reward for this year. Who’s considered to be the best position player?
 

JBJ_HOF

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Strongly guess the Sox will want college. I'll be stunned if they don't take Rocker SP, Leiter SP, Fabian CF, Hill SP if they have the chance. If they somehow get #2 I bet they take the player that'll take the best discount. Load up on tough signs that way.
 

RedOctober3829

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Strongly guess the Sox will want college. I'll be stunned if they don't take Rocker SP, Leiter SP, Fabian CF, Hill SP if they have the chance. If they somehow get #2 I bet they take the player that'll take the best discount. Load up on tough signs that way.
If they get #2 there is no way they don't go with the Vandy RHP that doesn't go #1. That is their biggest need.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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There was a great interview with Kumar Rocker on the The Ringer's Cespedes BBQ podcast a week or two back. Sounds like an awesome dude.

As for Jack Leiter, he was high school teammates and best friends with Yankees 2019 first rounder Anthony Volpe. Maybe 8-10 years ago, my son threw batting practice to both of them, and Volpe took him deep.
 

nighthob

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Strongly guess the Sox will want college. I'll be stunned if they don't take Rocker SP, Leiter SP, Fabian CF, Hill SP if they have the chance. If they somehow get #2 I bet they take the player that'll take the best discount. Load up on tough signs that way.
Shortstop's going to be a long term need for them too (to be brutally frank shortstop is the one position at which it's impossible to have too many prospects). So if they believe that Lawler's the third best player he's going to end up being the pick. High school bats don't have the same variance as high school pitchers.
 

RedOctober3829

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He seems to already be sliding down and Hill seems to have a higher upside, so I don't think there is "no way."
How would Leiter be "sliding down" if he hasn't pitched competitively since the shutdown of the season? Also, Hill has thrown a total of 21.2 innings in the last 2 years because of a forearm strain ended his freshman year early and COVID. Injury issues in pitchers are common, but given that Hill has already had a forearm strain it's a big risk to take Hill may throw harder but Leiter throws in the low to mid 90s and is the more polished guy having 3 and maybe even 4 pitches that could be considered high-level. Given the track record of Vandy pitchers, I would rather pick Leiter because I think he's only going to get better and better. Hopefully, we'll get to see both guys on the mound this spring.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the race for the bottom:

PIT 15-39
Texas 19-35 4 GB
Red Sox 20-34 5 GB
Arizona 20-34 5 GB
Washington 21-32 6.5 GB
KC 22-32 7 GB

Texas & Arizona play 2 against each other starting tonight. It's time to lose out.
 

thestardawg

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Shortstop's going to be a long term need for them too (to be brutally frank shortstop is the one position at which it's impossible to have too many prospects). So if they believe that Lawler's the third best player he's going to end up being the pick. High school bats don't have the same variance as high school pitchers.
You don't pick for position in the amateur draft. They need to load up on arms anyway
 

nvalvo

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the race for the bottom:

PIT 15-39
Texas 19-35 4 GB
Red Sox 20-34 5 GB
Arizona 20-34 5 GB
Washington 21-32 6.5 GB
KC 22-32 7 GB

Texas & Arizona play 2 against each other starting tonight. It's time to lose out.
As I mentioned in the other thread, we hold tiebreakers over Arizona and Washington for having finished behind them last season, but not the other teams.
 

nighthob

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You don't pick for position in the amateur draft. They need to load up on arms anyway
That's not what I said. The poster I was responding to said that Boston was going to use their top five pick on a lesser prospect in order to try and pick up other possible first round talents later (which, I hope we can agree, is a waste of a top 5 pick). I simply said that if Boston had Jordy Lawler third on their board they're going to pick him. Regardless of the fact that they already have an all star SS (because pitchers and SSs are sort of like wings in basketball, you can never have too many).

On the other hand, you're actually stating that they should draft for need, while stating that they shouldn't. In general terms I agree that if they're in a position to grab Rocker or Leiter, they should tab them.
 

ehaz

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Eovaldi and Perez starting against the Orioles this week isn't ideal. Cap them at 4 innings for "load management," or better yet, put them in bubble wrap for the rest of the season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You don't pick for position in the amateur draft. They need to load up on arms anyway
Isn't there quite a bit more of a Flop-risk with drafting high pitchers, as opposed to high positional prospects. I know the Sox need arms, but wouldn't a high projectable SS be much more valuable to acquire pitching?
 

nighthob

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Isn't there quite a bit more of a Flop-risk with drafting high pitchers, as opposed to high positional prospects. I know the Sox need arms, but wouldn't a high projectable SS be much more valuable to acquire pitching?
I think the rule of thumb is that high school pitchers carry a high bust rate, but that college arms are safer.
 

Sox Puppet

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Eovaldi and Perez starting against the Orioles this week isn't ideal. Cap them at 4 innings for "load management," or better yet, put them in bubble wrap for the rest of the season.
I know what you mean. I'd sure like to see a little more of Robinson Leyer and Kyle Hart. I'm sure Hart's injury isn't anything he can't pitch through.

Also, this has been a long year for Xander and Raffy. They deserve a nice rest, and we need to see what Tzu-Wei Lin has left in the tank.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I know what you mean. I'd sure like to see a little more of Robinson Leyer and Kyle Hart. I'm sure Hart's injury isn't anything he can't pitch through.

Also, this has been a long year for Xander and Raffy. They deserve a nice rest, and we need to see what Tzu-Wei Lin has left in the tank.
Second this. And pitch Brasier every day. 2-3 innings/game. I can shut it off earlier and he can maybe get that Right arm working different
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Especially when you're picking a Vanderbilt arm. The success rate of their pitchers speaks for itself. Price, Gray, Buehler, Mike Minor are a few.
I guess what I'm asking is that IF the Sox don't land one of the top two pitchers (and yeah, Vandy arms are a different breed) then should the Sox simply draft the 3rd best arm (when was Trey Ball drafted?) or the highest rated positional player? And wouldn't that positional player have additional value in that they have less chance of being a bust, so if they project as a top draftee would, could they be spun off for a highly rated pitcher that may have moved up through another teams prospect charts, or is a young promising SP with only a year or two under the belt at the ML level? Maybe thinking too far ahead?
 

barclay

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I guess what I'm asking is that IF the Sox don't land one of the top two pitchers (and yeah, Vandy arms are a different breed) then should the Sox simply draft the 3rd best arm (when was Trey Ball drafted?) or the highest rated positional player? And wouldn't that positional player have additional value in that they have less chance of being a bust, so if they project as a top draftee would, could they be spun off for a highly rated pitcher that may have moved up through another teams prospect charts, or is a young promising SP with only a year or two under the belt at the ML level? Maybe thinking too far ahead?
Not only is this not thinking too far ahead, I'm sure Bloom has factored this in to his calculations. He has info we on this board do not -- about other teams needs, about what they may want in return for one of their pitching prospects that Bloom desires, about a draft replacement for Benny if one of his targets wants Benny in a trade, etc. Given the 2-3 pick, he may already know who to pick and trade. "We" do not know, even if it's fun to think about it. What we DO know is that so far he has shown an amazing ability to win trades; that he knows what he's doing, and that we can trust him. Remember that no one on this board that I am aware of had Bloom picking Yorke, and yet he already (at all of 18 years old) has shown that Bloom may have been right. The upshot of all this is not to freak out if he picks someone we had not thought of with the #2-3 pick. He has a plan. I'm confident he will impress us in the end.
 

thestardawg

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That's not what I said. The poster I was responding to said that Boston was going to use their top five pick on a lesser prospect in order to try and pick up other possible first round talents later (which, I hope we can agree, is a waste of a top 5 pick). I simply said that if Boston had Jordy Lawler third on their board they're going to pick him. Regardless of the fact that they already have an all star SS (because pitchers and SSs are sort of like wings in basketball, you can never have too many).

On the other hand, you're actually stating that they should draft for need, while stating that they shouldn't. In general terms I agree that if they're in a position to grab Rocker or Leiter, they should tab them.
That's not quite correct. There's a difference between focusing on arms because of a lack of arms in the system and a specific position. THe issue with picking for a specific position is that so many players end up moving off that position and go down the position spectrum. Is there any thought on whether Lawler would be able to stick at SS
 

nighthob

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That's not quite correct. There's a difference between focusing on arms because of a lack of arms in the system and a specific position. THe issue with picking for a specific position is that so many players end up moving off that position and go down the position spectrum. Is there any thought on whether Lawler would be able to stick at SS
My entire statement was "If Boston has Lawler third on their board they're going to pick him". So I'm not sure what you think you're arguing about. If they had you third on their board (and were picking number 3) you'd be the pick regardless of your position.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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What we DO know is that so far he has shown an amazing ability to win trades; that he knows what he's doing, and that we can trust him. Remember that no one on this board that I am aware of had Bloom picking Yorke, and yet he already (at all of 18 years old) has shown that Bloom may have been right. The upshot of all this is not to freak out if he picks someone we had not thought of with the #2-3 pick.
I appreciate the enthusiasm but perhaps it should be tempered a touch. The only major-league player Bloom acquired by trade just lowered his season ERA to single digits and Yorke has not shown a damn thing yet. Yorke collecting a couple hits against pitchers not good enough to break into the worst staff in the major leagues is better than not collecting a couple hits but it indicates absolutely nothing about his potential or progress.
 

barclay

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I appreciate the enthusiasm but perhaps it should be tempered a touch. The only major-league player Bloom acquired by trade just lowered his season ERA to single digits and Yorke has not shown a damn thing yet. Yorke collecting a couple hits against pitchers not good enough to break into the worst staff in the major leagues is better than not collecting a couple hits but it indicates absolutely nothing about his potential or progress.
I hope you'll forgive me for being too nitpicky, but I think that when you say "The only major-league player Bloom acquired by trade" you meant to say "pitcher," as Verdugo is a "player."
 

thestardawg

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My entire statement was "If Boston has Lawler third on their board they're going to pick him". So I'm not sure what you think you're arguing about. If they had you third on their board (and were picking number 3) you'd be the pick regardless of your position.
I don't know what you're arguing about. My point is not picking a position player for their position. Period. Full Stop.
 

Kliq

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This team hasn't really developed a quality SP in 15 years. I've been pumping the Kumar train for a year but I have a feeling that even if he miraculously ends up in Boston (or Leiter, or Hill, or whatever SP they draft) this system is not equipped for them to reach their potential.
 

nighthob

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I don't know what you're arguing about. My point is not picking a position player for their position. Period. Full Stop.
I didn't start this argument, you did. By stating that you never draft for position and therefore Boston should draft for position.
 

thestardawg

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I didn't start this argument, you did. By stating that you never draft for position and therefore Boston should draft for position.
Are you being deliberately obtuse? Position player. You don't draft for position on the diamond because of high chances of moving off that position. Pitching is an entirely different animal. Unless you draft Trey Ball.
 

A Bad Man

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TEX is, most painfully, one loss away from locking up the 2nd pick.

The race for 3rd is wide open; six teams are realistically in play: BOS, ARI, DET, BAL, KC, WAS.

I think a record of 23-37 (0.383) will get it done, although 22-38 (0.367) is the only way to be safe. We do beat ARI and WAS in a tiebreak, but we lose to BAL and KC.

DET could lose out for 22-36 (0.379), but with four games against KC, it seems unlikely. DET is 2-9 in their last 11 games, however, so should not be counted out.

With BAL only one game back from us, tonight is a must-lose.

We play ATL over the weekend, the strongest opponent of the six teams (ARI vs. COL; DET vs. KC; BAL vs. TOR; WAS vs. NYM).

JUST. LOSE.
 

Rovin Romine

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This team hasn't really developed a quality SP in 15 years. I've been pumping the Kumar train for a year but I have a feeling that even if he miraculously ends up in Boston (or Leiter, or Hill, or whatever SP they draft) this system is not equipped for them to reach their potential.
Is this one of those purity-test type statements where the pitcher has to be drafted out of HS and have two back-to-back all-star years for the Sox?
 

shaggydog2000

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Is this one of those purity-test type statements where the pitcher has to be drafted out of HS and have two back-to-back all-star years for the Sox?
They have to be the Red Sox equivalent of a Triple Eagle: drafted, developed, and All-Star all with the Sox. Except the Red Sox version would be desirable outside of 495.
 

EL Jeffe

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Jim Callis has Leiter as the 6th best college prospect, and Perfect Game has him 7th. I'm not convinced he's a slam dunk #2 pick.


Jaden Hill out of LSU had an elbow strain as a freshman (2 starts, 10 innings) and was a dominant reliever last year (1 hit, 17k over 11.2 innings) before the shutdown. Callis & PG both have him just ahead of Leiter based on physical profile and pure stuff (while acknowledging elbow and lack of innings).

Jud Fabian OF (Florida), Matt McLain SS (UCLA), and Adrian del Castillo C (Miami) are the top college positional players (and ranked ahead of Leiter/Hill on the Callis and PG lists).
 

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Jim Callis has Leiter as the 6th best college prospect, and Perfect Game has him 7th. I'm not convinced he's a slam dunk #2 pick.


Jaden Hill out of LSU had an elbow strain as a freshman (2 starts, 10 innings) and was a dominant reliever last year (1 hit, 17k over 11.2 innings) before the shutdown. Callis & PG both have him just ahead of Leiter based on physical profile and pure stuff (while acknowledging elbow and lack of innings).

Jud Fabian OF (Florida), Matt McLain SS (UCLA), and Adrian del Castillo C (Miami) are the top college positional players (and ranked ahead of Leiter/Hill on the Callis and PG lists).
That's very interesting, and these are just the college rankings. There appears to be a lot of variability after Rocker.
 

RedOctober3829

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That's very interesting, and these are just the college rankings. There appears to be a lot of variability after Rocker.
It will depend on who gets the #2 pick and if they prefer HS or college aged kid and if they want a position player or not. If it's Boston at #2 or #3, they should undoubtedly have Leiter and Hill higher on their radars than they will a position guy.
 

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It will depend on who gets the #2 pick and if they prefer HS or college aged kid and if they want a position player or not. If it's Boston at #2 or #3, they should undoubtedly have Leiter and Hill higher on their radars than they will a position guy.
If they think that someone like Lawlor or Fabian is clearly the best prospect available, then that's who they'll draft.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I think we've already learned that Chaim does not care one bit about conventional wisdom in the draft judging from the Nick Yorke pick.