2021 MVP watch

[lexrageorge]

Plus, it's all about the story. Brady wasn't really all that great in 2017, but he was coming off the 2016 suspension, had just won the title, got the #1 seed again and had the best QB stats.

Now 5 years later, it's a great story again - 44 year old guy having the best season, completely unprecedented.

I need to push back on this. Where Brady ranked in various categories:

Yards: #1
Completions: #2 (Brees)
Attempts: #1
% intercepted: #3 (Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith)
Yards/attempt: #4
Adjusted y/a: #3
Passer rating: #3 (Smith, Brees)
QBR (whatever that means): #3 (Wentz, Keenum, both of whom threw 25% fewer passes than Brady)
AV: #1

So, by all metrics, he had a great season as a QB when compared to the competition. An argument could have been made for Drew Brees perhaps, but the two were basically neck-and-neck, and Brady's 13 wins is given credit.

Also, the top RB's, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy, were all pretty close. No clear dominant winner among them. Among WR's, an argument could have been made for Antonio Brown's 1500 yards. But it's not like he was clearly more impactful than Brady.

 

[tims4wins]

I need to push back on this. Where Brady ranked in various categories:

Yards: #1
Completions: #2 (Brees)
Attempts: #1
% intercepted: #3 (Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith)
Yards/attempt: #4
Adjusted y/a: #3
Passer rating: #3 (Smith, Brees)
QBR (whatever that means): #3 (Wentz, Keenum, both of whom threw 25% fewer passes than Brady)
AV: #1

So, by all metrics, he had a great season as a QB when compared to the competition. An argument could have been made for Drew Brees perhaps, but the two were basically neck-and-neck, and Brady's 13 wins is given credit.

Also, the top RB's, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy, were all pretty close. No clear dominant winner among them. Among WR's, an argument could have been made for Antonio Brown's 1500 yards. But it's not like he was clearly more impactful than Brady.

Sorry, I meant relative to the rest of his career. He had a very good 2017 no doubt. But it wasn’t much different from 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016 (discounting the suspension). The differences in 2017 were a) the competition and b) the story. The competition was probably a bigger factor but I do believe the story played a piece of it (plus, that was the year he turned 40, further adding to the story).

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Time for an update. Here's the current list of legit MVP candidates...

1. Tom Brady: 68.2%, 4,134 yds, 36 td, 10 int, 104.2 rating
2. Aaron Rodgers: 67.3%, 3,219 yds, 27 td, 4 int, 108.8 rating
3. Kyler Murray: 71.6%, 2,782 yds, 19 td, 9 int, 106.0 rating, 267 yds rushing, 5 rush td
4. Matthew Stafford: 67.3%, 3,898 yds, 33 td, 9 int, 108.4 rating
5. Jonathan Taylor: 1,348 rush yds, 5.6 y/a, 16 td, 36 rec, 336 yds, 2 rec td

That's my list. Who else really is in consideration? I don't think Josh Allen, with the way the Bills have stumbled lately, cracks the top 5, even though he's fantastic. Herbert is having a great year but the Chargers are a level below the top teams. Mahomes has been bad (for him) this year. I think this is the right group at this point.

I know this is usually a "best performer on offense" list, but if we're talking truly most valuable player, there's gotta be someone on the Patriots *cough* Judon or Jackson *cough*. Nobody expected the Patriots to be as good as they are.

Who would your Patriots MVP be?

 

[tims4wins]

I know this is usually a "best performer on offense" list, but if we're talking truly most valuable player, there's gotta be someone on the Patriots *cough* Judon or Jackson *cough*. Nobody expected the Patriots to be as good as they are.

Who would your Patriots MVP be?

I think this is thread-worthy..

 

[FL4WL3SS]

It is, but I also truly believe that Judon deserves some mention in the MVP discussion.

 

[BaseballJones]

I know this is usually a "best performer on offense" list, but if we're talking truly most valuable player, there's gotta be someone on the Patriots *cough* Judon or Jackson *cough*. Nobody expected the Patriots to be as good as they are.

Who would your Patriots MVP be?

Well, nobody on the Pats is even close to NFL MVP this year. As for Pats' MVP.... the candidates are (IMO):

Mac Jones
David Andrews
Matt Judon
JC Jackson

 

[wilked]

Rodgers now in the lead for MVP (Vegas odds)

 

[tims4wins]

Kupp doing it again. 9 for 136 and 2 TDs with 10:48 left to play. This is an historic season indeed.

 

[Kliq]

Kupp doing it again. 9 for 136 and 2 TDs with 10:48 left to play. This is an historic season indeed.

I'm not really sold on Kupp's season. He's a really good player and his numbers have a chance to be historic, but so much of it is a reflection of ther era he plays in and the team he is on.

He is going to put up big numbers mostly be sheer attrition; he's going to end up with by far the most targets in NFL history (currently at 164 with three games to play, 185 is the record by Michael Thomas a few years ago) so realistically he should set some records. To me, he seems like someone benefitting from playing in an offense that only throws the ball, for a coach obsessed with throwing as much as as possible, on a team that has lost pretty much every other significant recieving option. The Rams are 5th in offense, which is good but not really going to be rememberd as a legendary scoring offense. I just think he's a guy whose benefitted from his situation a ton to put up huge numbers.

It's hard for a WR to really win MVP because the QB will always get a lot of the credit first and foremost. I remember Bill Simmons once wrote when Amare Stoudemire got some MVP votes at the expense of Steve Nash being "like giving the Nobel Prize in Medicine to Frankenstein's Monster instead of Dr. Frankenstein" and that feels somewhat apt to voting for Kupp.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm not really sold on Kupp's season. He's a really good player and his numbers have a chance to be historic, but so much of it is a reflection of ther era he plays in and the team he is on.

He is going to put up big numbers mostly be sheer attrition; he's going to end up with by far the most targets in NFL history (currently at 164 with three games to play, 185 is the record by Michael Thomas a few years ago) so realistically he should set some records. To me, he seems like someone benefitting from playing in an offense that only throws the ball, for a coach obsessed with throwing as much as as possible, on a team that has lost pretty much every other significant recieving option. The Rams are 5th in offense, which is good but not really going to be rememberd as a legendary scoring offense. I just think he's a guy whose benefitted from his situation a ton to put up huge numbers.

It's hard for a WR to really win MVP because the QB will always get a lot of the credit first and foremost. I remember Bill Simmons once wrote when Amare Stoudemire got some MVP votes at the expense of Steve Nash being "like giving the Nobel Prize in Medicine to Frankenstein's Monster instead of Dr. Frankenstein" and that feels somewhat apt to voting for Kupp.

I get what you are saying, but we have seen this explosion in passing numbers since back in the 2004 range. Kupp has a chance to end up in the top 3-5 in yards, catches, and top 10 TDs in a single season. It's not like any of the other elite receivers have put together this type of season. If he is getting so many targets and catches, and there are no other good receiving options, shouldn't it be even more difficult for him to get his? Defenses can key in on him, and he's still putting up video game numbers.

 

[johnmd20]

I'm not really sold on Kupp's season. He's a really good player and his numbers have a chance to be historic, but so much of it is a reflection of ther era he plays in and the team he is on.

He is going to put up big numbers mostly be sheer attrition; he's going to end up with by far the most targets in NFL history (currently at 164 with three games to play, 185 is the record by Michael Thomas a few years ago) so realistically he should set some records. To me, he seems like someone benefitting from playing in an offense that only throws the ball, for a coach obsessed with throwing as much as as possible, on a team that has lost pretty much every other significant recieving option. The Rams are 5th in offense, which is good but not really going to be rememberd as a legendary scoring offense. I just think he's a guy whose benefitted from his situation a ton to put up huge numbers.

It's hard for a WR to really win MVP because the QB will always get a lot of the credit first and foremost. I remember Bill Simmons once wrote when Amare Stoudemire got some MVP votes at the expense of Steve Nash being "like giving the Nobel Prize in Medicine to Frankenstein's Monster instead of Dr. Frankenstein" and that feels somewhat apt to voting for Kupp.

Kupp has 21.7% more yards than the 2nd ranked player, Justin Jefferson. He has 27% more touchdowns than the guy in 2nd, Mike Evans. He has 21% more receptions than the guy in 2nd, Tyreke Hill.

How can you look at the separation Kupp has versus everyone else and come to the conclusion his year is just based upon the era he plays in?

And if the Rams don't have any other receiving options, (which is not true, but whatever, you said it) why is Kupp still outperforming everyone else by a minimum of 20%?

 

[Jungleland]

Yeah, gonna have to push back on the 'lost every other significant receiving option' line. Woods, who many went into the season expecting to be the team leader in yardage, played 9 games. Higbee has played 12. Van Jefferson has dabbled in being a very competent 3rd option this year, and now OBJ is in the fold. I won't argue that the preseason loss of Akers may have shifted the focus a little further in the direction of the passing game, but Henderson and Michel have been perfectly competent in a way that I think puts even that in question.

What Kupp is doing is pretty historic, and if we're considering Taylor a legitimate candidate (which imo we should be), I think we have to consider the same for Kupp.

 

[SMU_Sox]

They lost Woods and they cut Jackson because Van Jefferson emerged. They still throw to their tight ends. They have OBJ as well now. If a non-QB wins this year, and that could happen, I think the most obvious candidate is Kupp. If the Rams do win their division (and that is looking likely with the Cardinals fading) then he should be on the short list for MVP. If he keeps up his current pace he should finish close to 2,000 receiving yards if not over. He will also have 16 or so touchdowns. Those are MVP candidate numbers for a wide receiver.

 

[tims4wins]

Through 14 games Kupp is already:
#19 all time single season yards (on pace for 1,857 in 16 games, which would be #3 all time behind Julio's 1,871 in 2015)
T-10 all time single season receptions (on pace for 139 in 16 games, which would be #3 all time behind Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002)
T-36 all time single season TD receptions (on pace for 16 in 16 games, which would be T-15 all time)

So to compare the stats to the Harrison and Julio seasons:
Harrison 2002: 143 on 205 targets for 1,722 yards and 11 TDs (12.0 / catch and 8.4 / target)
Julio 2015: 136 on 203 targets for 1,871 yards and 8 TD (13.8 / catch and 9.2 / target)
Kupp 2021 (pace): 139 on 187 targets for 1,857 yards and 16 TD (13.3 / catch and 9.9 / target)

So he's actually been more efficient than these other great, historic seasons, with a higher % of TD catches as well.

 

[jezza1918]

Through 14 games Kupp is already:
#19 all time single season yards (on pace for 1,857 in 16 games, which would be #3 all time behind Julio's 1,871 in 2015)
T-10 all time single season receptions (on pace for 139 in 16 games, which would be #3 all time behind Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002)
T-36 all time single season TD receptions (on pace for 16 in 16 games, which would be T-15 all time)

So to compare the stats to the Harrison and Julio seasons:
Harrison 2002: 143 on 205 targets for 1,722 yards and 11 TDs (12.0 / catch and 8.4 / target)
Julio 2015: 136 on 203 targets for 1,871 yards and 8 TD (13.8 / catch and 9.2 / target)
Kupp 2021 (pace): 139 on 187 targets for 1,857 yards and 16 TD (13.3 / catch and 9.9 / target)

So he's actually been more efficient than these other great, historic seasons, with a higher % of TD catches as well.

Not commenting on whether this should be the case or not, but Harrison didn't finish in top 6 of MVP voting in 2002*, and Jones didnt finish in top 3 in 2015**.
* (Gannon, Favre, McNair, Brooks, Holmes, Vick)
** (Newton, Brady, Palmer)

 

[Mystic Merlin]

His volume of production at the efficiency level he’s maintained (his catch rate is almost 75 percent) is pretty awesome.

He’s not going to win MVP unless Rodgers and Brady totally collapse, and it’s not a given he would be out Taylor in that case, but he’s gonna be neck and neck with Taylor for OPOY.

 

[tims4wins]

Not commenting on whether this should be the case or not, but Harrison didn't finish in top 6 of MVP voting in 2002*, and Jones didnt finish in top 3 in 2015**.
* (Gannon, Favre, McNair, Brooks, Holmes, Vick)
** (Newton, Brady, Palmer)

And to be clear I am not advocating for Kupp as a true MVP candidate. Just pushing back on the argument that his season is not historic.

 

[jezza1918]

And to be clear I am not advocating for Kupp as a true MVP candidate. Just pushing back on the argument that his season is not historic.

Yup, I didn't read it as if you were...just wanted to add the context. Looking back it's a bit mind boggling that Harrison/Julio didn't sniff votes. Makes me think Kupp won't really either, though IMO he should be right in the mix with Rodgers/Brady/Taylor.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

I'm not really sold on Kupp's season. He's a really good player and his numbers have a chance to be historic, but so much of it is a reflection of ther era he plays in and the team he is on.

He is going to put up big numbers mostly be sheer attrition; he's going to end up with by far the most targets in NFL history (currently at 164 with three games to play, 185 is the record by Michael Thomas a few years ago) so realistically he should set some records. To me, he seems like someone benefitting from playing in an offense that only throws the ball, for a coach obsessed with throwing as much as as possible, on a team that has lost pretty much every other significant recieving option. The Rams are 5th in offense, which is good but not really going to be rememberd as a legendary scoring offense. I just think he's a guy whose benefitted from his situation a ton to put up huge numbers.

It's hard for a WR to really win MVP because the QB will always get a lot of the credit first and foremost. I remember Bill Simmons once wrote when Amare Stoudemire got some MVP votes at the expense of Steve Nash being "like giving the Nobel Prize in Medicine to Frankenstein's Monster instead of Dr. Frankenstein" and that feels somewhat apt to voting for Kupp.

Others have already made the case for Kupp so I won’t, but the record for targets is 205. Kupp would be on pace for 187 in 16 games, which would be 9th all time.

 

[tims4wins]

Furthering the point about this being an historic season

ELIAS: There have been 38 players to record 14 receiving TD in their team’s first 14 games in NFL history. There have been 4 players with 1,600 receiving yards through a team’s first 14 games in NFL history. There have been 3 players with 120 receptions through a team’s first 14 games in NFL history. But there is only 1 player to hit all those marks though a team’s first 14 games, Cooper Kupp.

Cooper Kupp Making History
Number of Players through 14 Games in NFL History
14 Rec TD 38
1,600 Rec yds 4
120 Rec 3
All 3 Marks 1
>>Elias Sports Bureau

 

[pappymojo]

I don't want Rodgers to win. Anybody else. Whatever. I don't care. Just not that asshole.

View: https://youtu.be/nMh61xj81o8

 

[Justthetippett]

I don't want Rodgers to win. Anybody else. Whatever. I don't care. Just not that asshole.

View: https://youtu.be/nMh61xj81o8

Second. But if Brady fades down the stretch and Rodgers doesn’t, I’m afraid this might come true. He is the most honest man in sports!

 

[djbayko]

Rodgers now in the lead for MVP (Vegas odds)

FWIW - It depends on what sportsbook you look at. Some have Aaron slightly ahead, some have Tom slightly ahead, and some have them neck-and-neck. I think some of the odds out there are an acknowledgement that Rodgers has some built-in disadvantages*, so Tom can probably take it as long as he doesn’t play like he did this past weekend.

* Tom has the 44-yo GOAT narrative going for him, Rodgers has his offseason and COVID shenanigans, and Rodgers just won the award last year.

 

[wilked]

Safe to say that Rodgers has this one locked up? Sort of a weird year, no one running away with it. All the other candidates have either stumbled a bit or with Krupp, play the wrong position / don’t have the publicity.

 

[sonofgodcf]

Safe to say that Rodgers has this one locked up? Sort of a weird year, no one running away with it. All the other candidates have either stumbled a bit or with Krupp, play the wrong position / don’t have the publicity.

I don't see it. Brady has him by over a 1000 yds passing, leads the entire league in YDs Passing (and will break 5000), TD's and Attempts. He's carrying TB, and with GB only a win better I don't see how Rodgers gets it over him. That ignores the whole Covid shenanigans as well, which will certainly cut against Rodgers.

Writers love a story, and Belichick getting CoTY and Brady getting MVP is too juicy to pass up.

 

[BaseballJones]

Belichick isn't getting CoTY this year. The hot candidate is LaFleur. So LaFleur/Rodgers combo for GB is quite likely.

 

[tims4wins]

Belichick isn't getting CoTY this year. The hot candidate is LaFleur. So LaFleur/Rodgers combo for GB is quite likely.

Early in the season it was going to be Kingsbury. Then it was going to be BB. Then I thought it would be Reich, until they lost at home to Vegas. These things are fluid. The Packers went 13-3 last year, brought back most of their team, have a top 5 QB, posted pretty much the same record as last year... I don't see why LaFleur would even be in consideration to be honest, based on past precedent.

I doubt he wins, but my vote would currently be for Vrabel, for navigating that team to the one seed despite all of the injuries etc. I could see Kyle Shanahan winning if SF makes the playoffs. Or possibly Nick Sirianni for the same reason.

Edit I forgot about Zac Taylor. His decision on 4th down and beating KC in a spotlight game could earn him the attention. 4-11-1 last year to 10-6 and a division title this year is exactly how you win this award.

 

[Kliq]

Belichick isn't getting CoTY this year. The hot candidate is LaFleur. So LaFleur/Rodgers combo for GB is quite likely.

You think the media is going to give LaFleur the CoTY award, and then throw him under the boss when Green Bay inevitably loses in the playoffs?

 

[BaseballJones]

Early in the season it was going to be Kingsbury. Then it was going to be BB. Then I thought it would be Reich, until they lost at home to Vegas. These things are fluid. The Packers went 13-3 last year, brought back most of their team, have a top 5 QB, posted pretty much the same record as last year... I don't see why LaFleur would even be in consideration to be honest, based on past precedent.

I doubt he wins, but my vote would currently be for Vrabel, for navigating that team to the one seed despite all of the injuries etc. I could see Kyle Shanahan winning if SF makes the playoffs. Or possibly Nick Sirianni for the same reason.

Edit I forgot about Zac Taylor. His decision on 4th down and beating KC in a spotlight game could earn him the attention. 4-11-1 last year to 10-6 and a division title this year is exactly how you win this award.

You make excellent points as usual, T4W. But I was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and the conversation was all about LaFleur winning that award.

You think the media is going to give LaFleur the CoTY award, and then throw him under the boss when Green Bay inevitably loses in the playoffs?

Sure, why not?

 

[Mystic Merlin]

The oddsmakers pretty decisively favor Rodgers to win MVP.

 

[Kliq]

You make excellent points as usual, T4W. But I was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and the conversation was all about LaFleur winning that award.



Sure, why not?

Because Aaron Rodgers' coach is ALWAYS bad, according to the media. It's completely unrealistic to expect him to make more than one SB in his career when he's saddled with constant incompetence on the sidelines. It would break the narrative that has shielded Rodgers for a lot of his career if the media acknowledged that Lafleur was good.

 

[djbayko]

I don't see it. Brady has him by over a 1000 yds passing, leads the entire league in YDs Passing (and will break 5000), TD's and Attempts. He's carrying TB, and with GB only a win better I don't see how Rodgers gets it over him. That ignores the whole Covid shenanigans as well, which will certainly cut against Rodgers.

Writers love a story, and Belichick getting CoTY and Brady getting MVP is too juicy to pass up.

If the Patriots didn’t have those two bad losses in a row, it would be Bill’s award, but unfortunately I don’t think he has a chance now. If we miraculously win the division next week, he might reenter the conversation, but won’t be a favorite to win.

You make excellent points as usual, T4W. But I was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and the conversation was all about LaFleur winning that award.



Sure, why not?

Vegas odds do favor Zac Taylor and then Lafleur. However, my suspicion is that it’s really between Taylor and Vrabel right now. If you go purely by exceeding preseason expectations (which is generally how the award is voted on), then it’s Bengals or maybe Green Bay. But the Titans lost Henry and broke the record for number of players used in a season due to injury. And they have control over the 1 seed. If they pull that off, I can see some narrative shifting toward Vrabel. He already has a lot of support now as it is.

The oddsmakers pretty decisively favor Rodgers to win MVP.

This is true, but I wouldn’t touch -400 for him right now. He has the efficiency stats and Tom has the counting stats. Voters are much more sophisticated today, but if they’re looking for an excuse to give Tom one more trophy (and/or to not give one to Rodgers), they will probably have it. Rodgers says he’s still playing next week even though he’s hurt and they’ve locked up the 1 seed, but we’ll see what happens. I Wouldn’t bet Tom +500 either, but +900 last week was pretty juicy.

 

[dynomite]

Re Coach of the Year, the current odds I'm seeing have Taylor +150, LaFleur +175, and Vrabel +350, with everyone else way back.

The Packers went 13-3 last year, brought back most of their team, have a top 5 QB, posted pretty much the same record as last year... I don't see why LaFleur would even be in consideration to be honest, based on past precedent.

You make good points. I will say Rodgers brought up interesting context on the Peyton/Eli MNF broadcast last night, which is that LaFleur is now the winningest NFL coach in history in his first three seasons (obviously a little bit of an odd time frame to measure, but impressive nonetheless):

Matt LaFleur became the winningest coach in NFL history over his first three seasons. He is 39-9 overall in the regular season since taking over in 2019. The Packers have had a first-round bye in the postseason in all three of his seasons as coach.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/02/packers-coach-matt-lafleur-make-nfl-history-during-win-over-vikings/

Clearly LaFleur inherited an outstanding situation, but that's still impressive -- better than the first three seasons of the Tomlin/Big Ben Steelers, the Seifert/Montana/Young 49ers (which is wild), etc. I know the award is supposed to be based solely on 2021 performance, but I could see in a close vote LaFleur getting a slight edge because of the body of work (plus the intangible of navigating the offseason and midseason Rodgers drama).

 

[tims4wins]

Re Coach of the Year, the current odds I'm seeing have Taylor +150, LaFleur +175, and Vrabel +350, with everyone else way back.



You make good points. I will say Rodgers brought up interesting context on the Peyton/Eli MNF broadcast last night, which is that LaFleur is now the winningest NFL coach in history in his first three seasons (obviously a little bit of an odd time frame to measure, but impressive nonetheless):

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/02/packers-coach-matt-lafleur-make-nfl-history-during-win-over-vikings/

Clearly LaFleur inherited an outstanding situation, but that's still impressive -- better than the first three seasons of the Tomlin/Big Ben Steelers, the Seifert/Montana/Young 49ers (which is wild), etc. I know the award is supposed to be based solely on 2021 performance, but I could see in a close vote LaFleur getting a slight edge because of the body of work (plus the intangible of navigating the offseason and midseason Rodgers drama).

If body of work mattered BB would have more trophies. That said I could see TB12 winning MVP as kind of a lifetime crowning achievement award.

 

[sonofgodcf]

If the Patriots didn’t have those two bad losses in a row, it would be Bill’s award, but unfortunately I don’t think he has a chance now. If we miraculously win the division next week, he might reenter the conversation, but won’t be a favorite to win.

I forgot how bad Cincy's record was last year, for some reason I thought they were much better than that. Agreed that Taylor is probably the front runner, followed by Vrabel, and then Belichick. I don't see why Lafleur would be considered a favorite, GB is going to finish in the same spot as last year in one of the weaker divisions (the same line of thinking probably hurts Vrabel's chances as well, but his team overcame a lot of non-self inflected adversity). COTY usually goes to the most improved team to win a division, no?

I'll be shocked if Brady isn't the MVP, probably time to hit a sportsbook...

 

[djbayko]

I forgot how bad Cincy's record was last year, for some reason I thought they were much better than that. Agreed that Taylor is probably the front runner, followed by Vrabel, and then Belichick. I don't see why Lafleur would be considered a favorite, GB is going to finish in the same spot as last year in one of the weaker divisions (the same line of thinking probably hurts Vrabel's chances as well, but his team overcame a lot of non-self inflected adversity). COTY usually goes to the most improved team to win a division, no?

I'll be shocked if Brady isn't the MVP, probably time to hit a sportsbook...

You may disagree, but GB has also exceeded preseason win expectations by a similar amount as the Bengals (I'd have to look it up for specifics, but I know they're close). Then there's the argument that it could be a "lifetime achievement" type of award for him winning 13+ 3 years in a row. The reason I didn't list him among my favorites is because I kind of feel like he missed his chance 3 years ago when he turned around Mike McCarthy's disaster. The winning expectations with Rodgers are kind of baked in now, even if their preseason win projection didn't reflect that.

One thing to be careful of with Zac Taylor is that he (COTY 1st), Ja'Marr Chase (OROY 1st), and Burrow (CPOTY 2nd and arguably should be 1st) are among the favorites for 3 awards. It's very unlikely that voters will reward all 3 from the same team. So who's going to get the shaft?

 

[tims4wins]

You may disagree, but GB has also exceeded preseason win expectations by a similar amount as the Bengals (I'd have to look it up for specifics, but I know they're close). Then there's the argument that it could be a "lifetime achievement" type of award for him winning 13+ 3 years in a row. The reason I didn't list him among my favorites is because I kind of feel like he missed his chance 3 years ago when he turned around Mike McCarthy's disaster. The winning expectations with Rodgers are kind of baked in now, even if their preseason win projection didn't reflect that.

One thing to be careful of with Zac Taylor is that he (COTY 1st), Ja'Marr Chase (OROY 1st), and Burrow (CPOTY 2nd and arguably should be 1st) are among the favorites for 3 awards. It's very unlikely that voters will reward all 3 from the same team. So who's going to get the shaft?

I don’t see them all being on the same team as a factor. I doubt Burrow wins though. He played too much last year to count?

 

[djbayko]

I don’t see them all being on the same team as a factor. I doubt Burrow wins though. He played too much last year to count?

Maybe not for you, but the average voter definitely likes to spread awards around.

 

[Justthetippett]

You may disagree, but GB has also exceeded preseason win expectations by a similar amount as the Bengals (I'd have to look it up for specifics, but I know they're close). Then there's the argument that it could be a "lifetime achievement" type of award for him winning 13+ 3 years in a row. The reason I didn't list him among my favorites is because I kind of feel like he missed his chance 3 years ago when he turned around Mike McCarthy's disaster. The winning expectations with Rodgers are kind of baked in now, even if their preseason win projection didn't reflect that.

One thing to be careful of with Zac Taylor is that he (COTY 1st), Ja'Marr Chase (OROY 1st), and Burrow (CPOTY 2nd and arguably should be 1st) are among the favorites for 3 awards. It's very unlikely that voters will reward all 3 from the same team. So who's going to get the shaft?

I would vote Taylor COTY, and Brady MVP. Voters might seize on that last NYJ drive and I still think there’s some lingering resentment against the perpetually smug Rodgers over his COVID actions and other recent media appearances. Chase also deserves OROY, unless Mac goes off against Miami for 5 TDs or something crazy. I think Burreaux gets the shaft.

 

[BaseballJones]

Just curious: How many times has a team that did not make the playoffs in one year start a true rookie (i.e., not a Brady situation) and make the playoffs the following year? Has to be a VERY small list, right?

 

[wilked]

Just curious: How many times has a team that did not make the playoffs in one year start a true rookie (i.e., not a Brady situation) and make the playoffs the following year? Has to be a VERY small list, right?

Generally if a rookie makes playoffs, the team didn't make the playoffs the year before. This follows logically as if the team made the playoffs the previous year it's generally because they are good/successful, and you don't hand the reins of a successful team to a rookie.

Since 2000, believe each rookie making playoffs, previous year the team didn't (and only twice were > 0.500)

• LJax (Ravens were 9-7 previous season)
• Dak (Cowboys were 4-12 previous season)
• Russ Wilson (Hawks were 7-9 previous season)
• Rob Griffin (Skins were 5-11 previous season)
• Luck (Colts were 2-14 previous season)
• Dalton (Bengals were 4-12 previous season)
• Sanchez (Jets were 9-7 previous season)
• Flacco (Ravens were 5-11 previous season)
• Ryan (Falcons were 4-12 previous season)
• Roeth (Steelers were 6-10 previous season)

edit to add - also helps to get a rookie that can be successful to have a higher draft pick, which also generally means poor record the previous year

 

[tims4wins]

Generally if a rookie makes playoffs, the team didn't make the playoffs the year before. This follows logically as if the team made the playoffs the previous year it's generally because they are good/successful, and you don't hand the reins of a successful team to a rookie.

Since 2000, believe each rookie making playoffs, previous year the team didn't (and only twice were > 0.500)

• LJax (Ravens were 9-7 previous season)
• Dak (Cowboys were 4-12 previous season)
• Russ Wilson (Hawks were 7-9 previous season)
• Rob Griffin (Skins were 5-11 previous season)
• Luck (Colts were 2-14 previous season)
• Dalton (Bengals were 4-12 previous season)
• Sanchez (Jets were 9-7 previous season)
• Flacco (Ravens were 5-11 previous season)
• Ryan (Falcons were 4-12 previous season)
• Roeth (Steelers were 6-10 previous season)

edit to add - also helps to get a rookie that can be successful to have a higher draft pick, which also generally means poor record the previous year

Dak and Russ stand out because they were drafted later so their teams didn’t necessarily stink - they weren’t top 10 picks on awful teams. Doubly true for LJax.

 

[wilked]

Dak and Russ stand out because they were drafted later so their teams didn’t necessarily stink - they weren’t top 10 picks on awful teams. Doubly true for LJax.

Dak was right place / right time w Romo injury. Took advantage.

Russ replaced an old and ineffective Hasselback, so that one feels more clearly a planned succession

 

[tims4wins]

Dak was right place / right time w Romo injury. Took advantage.

Russ replaced an old and ineffective Hasselback, so that one feels more clearly a planned succession

Agreed.

Main point being - none of those teams stunk (and same can be said for Flacco, Ben, and Sanchize)

Edit: and of course Mac. The Pats weren't good and probably overachieved to get to 7-9, but there was talent on the roster

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Did Brady clinch MVP with the main counting stat titles this year, while finishing with the same W-L record as the Packers?

 

[rodderick]

I'd give Brady the MVP by mere virtue of him being close enough to Rodgers on efficiency stats on much higher volume while having faced the second toughest schedule of defenses by DVOA and EPA/Play. I just don't see how the Bucs relying on Brady to produce offense for them more than any other team relied on any other player shouldn't be taken into account when discussing value. I'll take the guy that'll give me 95% of the per play production of his most efficient peer on 25% more snaps every day of the week. Leads the league in total EPA and DYAR.

Also, Rodgers missed a game due to a circumstance that was entirely under his control. That has on field repercussions and should impact any assessment of value provided.

 

[djbayko]

 

[djbayko]

Odds for Aaron Rodgers are around -500 to -600 at various sportsbooks while Brady is around +500. And then there's this FWIW:

Peter King:

Bad news, Hub Arkush. My poll of 36 smart ex-players and smart media folk show Aaron Rodgers winning his fourth MVP in a landslide.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/10/ben-roethlisberger-steelers-nfl-playoffs-fmia-peter-king/

 

[rodderick]

Odds for Aaron Rodgers are around -500 to -600 at various sportsbooks while Brady is around +500. And then there's this FWIW:

Peter King:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/10/ben-roethlisberger-steelers-nfl-playoffs-fmia-peter-king/

I really want to understand where this landslide is coming from. He wasn't far and away the best QB in football and he missed a game. Meh, who cares anyway.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I really want to understand where this landslide is coming from. He wasn't far and away the best QB in football and he missed a game. Meh, who cares anyway.

His ANY/A was half a yard better than the next best guy. If you want to argue others did more since he missed a game that's another story, but it wasn't close on a per-dropback basis.