Horford finished 2nd in 3PT% at .446 (Luke Kennard shot .494!!!!)
Brogdon 4th @ .444. Hauser 13th @ .418
Brogdon 4th @ .444. Hauser 13th @ .418
2022-2023 General Celtics thread
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
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Kennard shot .542 from 3 post ASB, on 131 attempts. He had relatively few attempts for the whole season (269, would've been 9th most on the Celtics between Grant and Pritchard) but still crazy.
It's not evidence that Hauser is a great, or even good defender, but it's pretty good evidence that he's not at all abysmal.
The team keeps him out of bad matchups, but there are still 16.1 minutes/night in which he can provide decent defense, which is more than a lot of guys in the NBA can say.
The team keeps him out of bad matchups, but there are still 16.1 minutes/night in which he can provide decent defense, which is more than a lot of guys in the NBA can say.
I wonder if he benefited from being just a little better than opponents expected? It seemed like players often took him lightly and thought they could force their way to a good shot in iso, and ended up taking a bad one because beating him wasn't as easy as they thought it'd be.
Legit top flight offensive stars (of all sizes) eat him alive, but when he's playing backups and the second tier 1v1 guys (the Marcus Morris' of the world) go out of their way to attack him, it ends up being a bad use of an offensive possession because against those guys, he can hold his own. Not exactly a revelation to say he'll have a tougher time in the playoffs because the stars play more minutes and teams are more thoughtful about their possessions, but he's done a really good job in the minutes he's played so far. If he can keep hitting 40% of his 3s he should still be able to steal a few good minutes here and there.
PP averaged almost 13 MPG last year during the playoffs (8th on the team). Theis had 12.5 MPG in the 9th slot. Considering they added Brogdon to the top 7 returning MPG guys, and there won't be many minutes left to go around. Though I don't think we will necessarily see Grant log 27 MPG this year.
I'm guessing that Brogdon will get about 27/game, with Grant getting about 18 of the 25 that went to DT and PP. That will leave about 7 MPG for Hauser and Blake.
This all makes sense, I can't see Hauser getting more than a few minutes in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of these games, with a really tight leash. Blake is in the same boat as Pritchard, in that if he's on the court in a non-blowout, something has gone very wrong with the guys in front of him (I'm curious to see how many minutes he played in games in which both TL and Horford were available). Hauser legitimately has something to add in spot minutes, if he doesn't give it all back on the other end.
It seems to me, as Euclis20 pointed out a few posts up, that Hauser will only see time when the opponents bench is getting minutes. Blake, OTOH, could see minutes against some of the starting bigs we might see.
The other thing Hauser brings which was missing last year is just great shooting when the offense is stagnant---he would have made a huge difference vs GS in the finals. He can't play 20 min a game (and GS would put up points on him the other way) but he's a different offensive piece than they had last year and taht might matter in a game or two.
I'm pretty sure that we plan on having one of Horford/TL on the court at all times, with Grant being the preferred guy at power forward when we play legit bigs (Bam, Embiid, Giannis). For better or worse I think the team is comfortable with him defending that group, and he can legit stretch the court. Blake cannot, even in a season in which he hits 35% of his [wide wide open] 3s, no defender will ever close out on him. It'd Theis all over again, but with worse defense (and less fouling).
These 4 stats help explain the Celtics’ season (and how far they can go)
Some of this has been discussed here previously. I found these bits to be particularly interesting:
Some of this has been discussed here previously. I found these bits to be particularly interesting:
So White needs a lot of minutes and if this team stays healthy and can hit their threes they are going to be tough to beat in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how Mazzulla uses TL in the post season. He is such a difference maker but I would be afraid to give him too many minutes for fear of either wearing him down or getting him injured.
Word. He's an averageish defensive player who looks like a bad one. Not because he doesn't look athletic imo. It's because he's an undrafted 3pt specialist. People expect him to lack in other areas. But he really doesn't have huge weaknesses.
This exactly. Contested midrange turnarounds are garbage officiency possessions unless you're one of the handful of guys who are super elite at such attempts. Lots of mediocre guys try to spin cycle the kid but end up bricking bad shots.
Yep. He's be a matchup-dependent role player who keeps offense alive for a quarter here and there and gets yanked at the right time. He'll get DNP-CD'd a few times and throw up 15 in 12 minutes on the road out of the blue. It's an advantage that he has over Pritchard that he doesn't need a massive separation to get his shot off.
It is the coaching staffs job to keep their role players out of bad matchups to not be exposed while keeping the best defensive matchups on the floor. Guys like Hauser and Grant will see their minutes and role fluctuate series to series based off opponent. As has been the case all season, one group of supporters between Brogdon and White will be vocal in their disapproval of their guys 4Q role based on the defensive matchup that night and series.
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Hauser's release is quick to my eyes. His height combined with his high release makes him much more difficult to guard beyond the arc than PP. Hauser probably won't get many playoff minutes but I would bet he gets more than PP.
The PP minutes from the playoffs last year are heavily skewed:
In the Brooklyn sweep, he averaged about 11 minutes a game. His biggest game in that series was in game 2 where he played 15:37, but over 10 of those minutes came in the 2nd half when he went on a heater and scored 10 points on 5/6 in the half, and gave the C's a +10 during that time, in a 7 point come from behind win.
In the Milwaukee series, he got 23 minutes in game 2 (a 23 point win), because Marcus was inactive. He then got 17 minutes in the 28 point blowout in the final game. In the other 5 games, he averaged about 10mpg
In the Miami series, he played over 30 minutes in game 1, and over 24 minutes in game 4, both games where Marcus again didn't play. He then got 23 minutes in game 2, because that was a 25 point blowout. In the other 4 games, he averaged about 6mpg.
Against Golden State, PP played 15 minutes in game 1 (12 point win), over 18 minutes in game 2 (19 point loss) and then went back to the bench and averaged about 8 minutes a game in the last 4 games.
Likewise, Theis started and averaged 22mpg in the Nets series.
After that, he didn't even play in 8 of the other 20 playoff games, which skews his mpg significantly if you don't include the 8 games with zero minutes.
That said, your point is correct, IMO. Hauser will likely see some time, but I don't see Blake and very many other folks seeing the floor absent injuries or blowouts.
Unless there are injuries, the guys outside the top 8 will probably only play garbage time. Theis only got to 12.5 minutes as the 9th man because Rob missed 7 games and Al missed 1. After the Brooklyn series, in games Al and Rob both played Theis played exclusively garbage time outside of one first half stint in game 2 against Golden State.
If you figure 40 minutes each for Tatum and Brown, that only leaves 160 minutes a night.
That's an average of 26.7 minutes each for Smart, White, Brogdon, Al, Rob and Grant.
That's easily handled as long as they're all healthy. Maybe at best someone outside their top 8 gets spot minutes if someone is in foul trouble or Grant struggles.
But that’s the nature of the playoffs. Unexpected things happen to force bit players into larger roles, even for a couple games. Maybe it’s an injury, or foul trouble, or a family crisis. But one of those 9/10/11 guys will end up with a decent MPG (i.e. double figures) because of something.
Why would he need to though?
The PP minutes described above were for their 8th best player last year. Hauser is outside of that 8.
On some nights, that 8th guy won't even get many minutes.
Don't expand the rotation to 9 unless absolutely necessary.
If we are at full strength there isn’t any regular usage pattern available for anyone in that Hauser/Kornet/Blake/Muscala/Pritchard group. At some point a few of these guys will get spot minites here and there with injuries or foul trouble but with the playoff scheduling that is the only reason we’d go that deep. Maybe Hauser could get some 2Q run when opponents lineup isn’t designed to hunt anyone but if we have to go beyond that something went wrong on the injury/foul front that night.
Primarily a 7-man rotation with Grant as the 8th man
BUT if Grant continues to struggle I wouldn't be shocked to see Hauser get the 8th man minutes based on some Heat match-ups or Blake in some Philly match-ups
Grant has been pretty meh on both sides of the floor since the New Year (arm injury)
Miami and specifically Butler are masters at hunting and forcing switches. I wouldn’t expect much Hauser in this series with Jimmy playing 40+ mpg except for possibly that small early 2Q window.
Derrick White led all guards with 76 blocks. Here are all of them
View: https://twitter.com/NElGHT_/status/1645553510954442752?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/NElGHT_/status/1645553510954442752?s=20
Miami will play a bunch of zone and generally try to send plenty of help to JT and JB. Hauser’s shooting should help loosen things up and I trust his shooting more than Grant’s. I also expect most of Hauser’s minutes to come with JT on the floor.
1-7 are so strong for Boston that #8 minutes will be light. Early Q2 would be that window. Grant will be on a very short leash
FWIW I think that Grant has played his way out of the rotation in the last few weeks, and I say that as a Grantophile.
The top 7 are very clear: the two bigs, the two Jays, the three guards. That's the "rotation". Those guys are getting minutes absent injury, especially now that Rob looks like Rob.
So...since we're not going 7 deep most of the time, role players will get some time. That's gonna vary depending on team and even who on that team is on the court at any given time. But I don't think that you're nuts for calling this out. Grant's probably the winner of the "who else gets minutes?" lottery on most of the occasions coming up, but it won't be "oh, he's the 8th man in the rotation" minutes, I don't think. Something is off with him.
I disagree that there is a top-7 and not a top-8 for most of our opponents these playoffs. Grant’s defense and physicality is necessary against most of the teams in the EC playoffs. He is going to be on the floor some and against certain teams on the floor quite a bit.
We'll see, hope he plays well & gets plenty of minutes, but he's had a tough 2nd half of the season.
Something's not right with him.
It's this reason that makes me think you're right and HRB wrong about Grant's role in the playoffs. The last few weeks we've seen a much reduced role for Grant, with Hauser largely taking his minutes. Hauser isn't as much of a load to move on defense, but he's a 6'7" forward who can stay in front of most guys his size and smaller, so if he's continuing to execute the offense well and is smarter with the ball than Grant often is, then I expect Sam to continue to take "the Grant minutes" come playoff time.
That might change specifically with Embiid defense in a Philly series, but otherwise we don't really have a matchup-specific reason to ignore what we've seen from both of them the last few months.
Not only Adebayo, he has also done a credible job on Embid and Giannis. This is something that Hauser cannot do. We are going to see a lot of Grant Williams during the playoffs.
All 82 is clamps on D but his offensive leveling up over the course of the season was pretty remarkable too. He gets buckets.
About a quarter of the way into the season, I thought Grant was the one thing that Brad had maybe gotten wrong (after nailing every trade: Horford, White, Brogdon), by not extending him last summer.
Now I think Brad got that right too.
Please tell me Marcus gave him this: View: https://twitter.com/nbcsceltics/status/1516886181757296641?s=46&t=4DK5sD-8gsSKFExcsnEJqg
Yeah exactly. Grant is the 8th man and probably will get more minutes this postseason than Hauser or Kornet or Blake. Almost certainly. But it will be matchup dependent. Lucky for him we face teams where he ostensibly adds value as a brick wall who can move his feet. If he really struggles to move his feet or keeps treating the ball like a greased pig on offense, there's a chance that he loses minutes to someone else imo. The top 7 are locked through.
The problem is that we don’t have another player on our roster with this important skillset to replace him. Blake is the closest and I’m sure most will agree is much worse at these skills in his current state than Grant. I don’t know what makes Hauser “a better player” when that comparison is hardly relevant when matching up defensively which is a large part of playoff basketball.
Santa Brad has been very aggressive in offering multi-year deals to anyone that will listen (Marcus, TL, Horford, Hauser, Kornet, Gallo), he was even able to line the pockets of Stauskas, Fitts & flotsam last summer in the Brogdon deal.
Grant felt an obligation to the Players Assoc (his right) to roll the dice instead of taking 4yrs guaranteed. Unless he garners some Rozier S&T luck, he certainly cost himself a few $$$. The new CBA makes the argument "it's just Wyc's $$$" moot since going over the 2nd hurdle is penal.
I was at the game on Sunday and as I remember it, Grant perfectly encapsulated his second half in one play. Stationed in the corner, he is passed the ball and had a fairly open shot, pump fakes instead and drives, poorly, into traffic, gets completely bottled up and turns over the ball, runs back on defense, Hawks pass the ball around a bit and he is in position, but then Hawks back-up totally blows by him for a layup, with Grant barely moving. then he was taken out shortly thereafter.
Yes, it was the last game of the season, but everyone else in that game was giving real effort. Hopefully he pulls it together.
Yes, it was the last game of the season, but everyone else in that game was giving real effort. Hopefully he pulls it together.
This.
In 5 games against the Heat this year, he's gotten 126 minutes, his rating on O/D is 133/114, the C's are 4-1.; Grant shot .583 from the floor and .588 from 3.
In 4 games against Milwaukee, 96 minutes, 119/113, C's are 3-1, he shot .450/.500
In 6 games against Philly, 121 minutes, he's at 153/118, C's are 4-2, he shot .536/.556
Against those 3 teams, Grant has made 26 of 47 3's he's taken. He gets up for these matchups.
Grant is playing in the Eastern Conference games.
That said, bring on ATLANTA.
The Celtics will likely be over the 2nd hurdle a lot if/when JB gets a supermax, so it may make sense to re-sign Grant as matching salary. He's unlikely to be an underwater contract at the right number.
Pop signing him to that 4/$70 extension summer of 2020 (to run 21-22 thru 24-25) was an epic favor to all involved but especially us. He's getting enough that he can't really be upset about it, but is paid way, way below the value he creates on the court. Arguably an even better contract for us than TimeLord.
I'm in the flexibility camp, signing Jaylen to a super MAX (contract certainty) is good for Boston, if he stays for the full 5 is another question. HRB has raised an interesting point and believes there is a chance he could be moved (or demand somewhere else)
Teams aren't going to trip over themselves to sign Grant to multiple years at $20MM+/yr, so at the right number 100% agree they should sign/match.
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Yea, trading Romeo Langford and the pick that became Blake Wesley for Derrick White on a great contract was one of the finest moves of the past several years
I'm not making a case for Hauser or anyone else, and I agree that Grant likely gets most of the minutes left after the actual 7-man rotation. He hasn't really earned those minutes lately, but he'll be played out of role necessity. If "3 months ago Grant Williams" were available, we'd be pretty stoked. As it is now, I'm expecting that he may get abused and entertaining the possibility that he flops around the floor like a drunk freshman and maybe gets yanked more often than you think that he will. I'm not sure that this is a controversial viewpoint. And I sure as shit hope that I'm wrong and he just flips a switch and settles into the corner office and beefs up Embiid et al. But if he's a mess out there, I wouldn't fault Joe at all for trying some other approach at times and think that people are downplaying that possibility.
Grant is going to get abused as he’s asked to matchup with Giannis, Embiid, Randle, etc. He’ll get abused much less than our other options sans maybe Tatum but you don’t want to have him using up his gas tank on that end of the floor in this manner.
Mazzulla might decide to go nine deep in the early rounds and try to blow opponents off the court with supercharged three point friendly lineups with Grant and Hauser both getting minutes. I can see them starting off with AL, TL, Smart and the Jays, and then play the last 4-5 minutes of the first quarter with Brogdon, White, Grant, Hauser, and Tatum.
The traditional starting lineup from last year has the defensive ability to totally smother a team like Miami from the jump. The script I would want is to get out to a double figure lead early by getting stops, and then blow the game open in the last part of the first quarter and first half of the second.
The traditional starting lineup from last year has the defensive ability to totally smother a team like Miami from the jump. The script I would want is to get out to a double figure lead early by getting stops, and then blow the game open in the last part of the first quarter and first half of the second.
...which is why we're all rooting against Brown-for-All-NBA, right? RIGHT?
...ok, apparently not a consensus, then.
Look, we can take it to the Jaylen thread, but I think the odds JB re-signs with us are very high even if all we can offer is an ordinary 30% max. And if so, then we'd much rather him be priced at a more tradable salary and one which preserves a lot more payroll maneuvering room for additions during the course of the contract. JB makes $31 next season, around 25% of projected cap; the difference between him making (assume a $140 cap in 24-25) $42M vs $49M is honestly pretty big for us.
If he gets the supermax, we're going to be blowing past the upper tiers of taxpayer multipliers and paying $4-5 tax per dollar of overage, just to maintain the roster nevermind have a chance to improve it on the margins - and the risk of a top-7 player walking in free agency is a terrifying one for extending our window.
The reason we want JB all-nba is not because we want to pay him more money. If he makes all-nba we have the ability to sign him to a super max contract this offseason when nobody else can negotiate with him instead of waiting until next year when he's a free agent. If we think he'll sign an extension this offseason even without the supermax option that's obviously even better. The most important thing is to sign him this offseason and not to let him get to free agency next year.