The Guardians lost 40% of their starting rotation today. At least it was the worst 40%.
That said, Aaron Civale has pitched really well since returning from his first trip on the IL this season. Over his last 10 starts, he's posted a 3.22 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .229/.286/.356 against him. He's a "twice through the order" guy and this is his third trip to the IL this season, so he hasn't given the team many innings (or worked down his ERA from a disastrous first month). Civale has muscle swelling in his forearm and will probably need two weeks of meds and treatment before being reevaluated. He's probably looking at coming back late in the season on a limited pitch count (as they possibly head into the playoffs).
Zach Plesac's injury is addition by subtraction. I was disappointed Cleveland wasn't able to find a team desperate enough for innings to trade Plesac at the deadline. Aside from a flukish small sample size in 2020, he's always been a back-of-the-rotation starter with rare flashes where he gets weak grounder after weak grounder. His immaturity and temper – and just plain boneheadedness – make him impossible to root for. This time it's a broken pinky from pounding dirt in his last start. He's previously injured himself by tearing his shirt off. He basically has all of Trevor Bauer's poor decision making (okay, hopefully not all of it, since that escalated to criminal activity) without any of his talent. He might be back within a couple of weeks, but I'd rather just see the worst case scenario and Cody Morris or Xzavion Curry get hot. They also have Connor Pilkington, who has made spot starts throughout the season, and Peyton Battenfield, who was added for depth for one series last month but didn't pitch.
The good news is that Morris had already come off the 60-day IL yesterday after straining his back in spring training. He was added to the 40-man roster last fall, so this gives him a chance to get his feet wet and not just waste his first option year pitching "rehab" in AAA, but he was only at 60 pitches in his last start, so the bad part is Kirk McCarty is also back and probably there to piggyback the Morris starts. He'll become the 15th Guardian to make his MLB debut tonight. Morris is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid-90s fastball, plus changeup, average curve and a cutter that's a work in progress. He probably tops out as a mid-rotation guy, but he's been an overachiever getting better at each new level. Between that and a long history of injuries, he's a bit hard to project. Over the past two years, he's posted a 1.75 ERA across AA/AAA, but that's only 72 innings. He's struck out 39.4% of the batters he's faced at those levels, and like most Guardians starting prospects, he pounds the strike zone. They definitely like him as a starter, but I think he would at least have a future as a reliever if he can't build up to starters innings long-term.
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Cleveland wraps up the toughest 12-game stretch that was left on their schedule with three at home against the Mariners this weekend. They've gone 4-5 so far, which isn't bad since it started out against two potential playoff teams on the West Coast. If extra innings had worked out better, they'd be 5-4, but the lineup has struggled, getting shut out 4 times in their last 10 games. A week from today, they begin a stretch of 8 games in 12 days against the Twins, which could determine the AL Central champion a couple of weeks early. Although the Twins have cut the current lead back down to one game, the Guardians have the advantage of a lot more home games left on the schedule while the Twins will be traveling a lot. Cleveland also finishes out the regular season with six straight against the Royals.
I'll be in Chicago in a few weeks and will be in attendance when the Guardians wrap up a series against the White Sox on September 22nd... all those Twins games will be over by then and who knows if the White Sox will be in the thick of it or out of it.