I disagree. What jobs do you see opening up other than Raiders, Jags and Bears? Maybe Seattle and Minny? I think it might be a quiet coaching carousel this year.
2022 coaching carousel
- Thread starter nattysez
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Those 5 + Carolina with Matt Rhule, Houston, maybe Denver, and possibly NYG. Might be up to 8 spots open. If SF somehow fails to make the playoffs I’d add them to the list so 8-9 potential spots could open up. I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what the average turnover rates are but you could see 1/4 of the spots turned over. Some of those would likely see a change in GMs/front-offices too.
Seems like it’s time for the annual thread.
I don’t see either Vegas or Jacksonville hiring their interim coaches, and I can’t imagine Nagy will be back in Chicago. So that’s at least three openings.
Looking at the other possible openings, roughly in descending order of likelihood:
Denver — Three straight non-playoff seasons usually gets an NFL coach fired. And while John Elway is still in the front office, George Paton is supposedly making the calls now. I think Paton will want to hire his own guy, and Elway will let him
NY Giants — It’s not fair to Joe Judge, as the G-men are a bottom-5 team talent-wise, but there is pressure for change in New York. If Gettleman resigns or is fired I think the new GM hires his own coach. If Gettleman remains, I think there’s a 50/50 chance Judge gets another year.
Seattle — A coach with Carroll’s track record wouldn’t normally be fired over one bad season, but if Wilson won’t play for him, they’re over a barrel — either they fire Pete to keep Russ happy, or they trade Russ and rebuild, in which case someone else is probably better suited to lead the rebuild. I don’t think this one happens on Black Monday; it’s going to take a while to play out.
Minnesota — Mike Zimmer will be fine if the Vikings finish strong; if they don’t, he’s in trouble. He won a playoff game in 2017, but I’m not sure he survives back-to-back losing seasons with a team that had considerable expectations (perhaps unreasonably so).
Detroit — Coaches who fail to win at least 3 games are always at risk, and Campbell won’t get there. He seems to be the anti-Meyer, in that the players seem to have bought in and are playing hard, so I think he gets another season.
Houston — Same as Detroit, but I think Culley is in less jeopardy, as I think everyone will chalk the lost season up to the Deshawn Watson shitshow.
Carolina — Only on the list because @SMU_Sox is smarter than me. The Darnold trade didn’t pan out, but Rhule has the team headed in the right direction; I think he gets another year to show results.
So I think we’re looking at five openings, or six if the Vikings limp to the finish. I’m not including Seattle because if that happens, I think it’s after the carousel stops spinning.
I don’t see either Vegas or Jacksonville hiring their interim coaches, and I can’t imagine Nagy will be back in Chicago. So that’s at least three openings.
Looking at the other possible openings, roughly in descending order of likelihood:
Denver — Three straight non-playoff seasons usually gets an NFL coach fired. And while John Elway is still in the front office, George Paton is supposedly making the calls now. I think Paton will want to hire his own guy, and Elway will let him
NY Giants — It’s not fair to Joe Judge, as the G-men are a bottom-5 team talent-wise, but there is pressure for change in New York. If Gettleman resigns or is fired I think the new GM hires his own coach. If Gettleman remains, I think there’s a 50/50 chance Judge gets another year.
Seattle — A coach with Carroll’s track record wouldn’t normally be fired over one bad season, but if Wilson won’t play for him, they’re over a barrel — either they fire Pete to keep Russ happy, or they trade Russ and rebuild, in which case someone else is probably better suited to lead the rebuild. I don’t think this one happens on Black Monday; it’s going to take a while to play out.
Minnesota — Mike Zimmer will be fine if the Vikings finish strong; if they don’t, he’s in trouble. He won a playoff game in 2017, but I’m not sure he survives back-to-back losing seasons with a team that had considerable expectations (perhaps unreasonably so).
Detroit — Coaches who fail to win at least 3 games are always at risk, and Campbell won’t get there. He seems to be the anti-Meyer, in that the players seem to have bought in and are playing hard, so I think he gets another season.
Houston — Same as Detroit, but I think Culley is in less jeopardy, as I think everyone will chalk the lost season up to the Deshawn Watson shitshow.
Carolina — Only on the list because @SMU_Sox is smarter than me. The Darnold trade didn’t pan out, but Rhule has the team headed in the right direction; I think he gets another year to show results.
So I think we’re looking at five openings, or six if the Vikings limp to the finish. I’m not including Seattle because if that happens, I think it’s after the carousel stops spinning.
Dark horse: the Jets. Salah gets a lot of leeway, but he's a defensive coach and the defense has been awful. If they totally collapse down the stretch, I could see it.
Darker horse: Is Jerry really going to be OK with McCarthy if the Cowboys continue to unravel?
Darkest horse: I think it was Charles Robinson on his podcast who said that Buffalo might want to make a change if they underachieve.
otoh, I think Campbell is fine.
Darker horse: Is Jerry really going to be OK with McCarthy if the Cowboys continue to unravel?
Darkest horse: I think it was Charles Robinson on his podcast who said that Buffalo might want to make a change if they underachieve.
otoh, I think Campbell is fine.
Here is the case against Rhule. He has completely botched the QB and OL positions and wants to be old school and run the ball more. His management of QBs is bad too benching Cam for PJ and then putting Cam back in because PJ isn’t a starting caliber QB. They gambled with Darnold which was controversial at the time and blew up in their face. They traded Teddy two-gloves who while not spectacular is worlds better than Darnold. They also cut and then re-signed Cam. With the 8th pick the rumor was they desperately wanted to trade back but got no takers and instead of taking Slater they went yet again with another defensive player in Horn. Don’t get me wrong - Horn was looking exceptional for a rookie and he very well could evolve into a Gilmore like corner but it’s hard to win when you don’t have offensive tackles or a QB. They were also enamored with Mac but didn’t think he was worth the 8th overall pick (again rumors). I don't think he knows how to manage a roster, have a solid plan at QB, or know who to prioritize on offense.
Carolina has a GM problem more than a coach problem -- I think Rhule is safe.
Good points above on the Giants and Denver -- there could be changes in both places for the reasons stated and I missed them in my initial post.
I find it very hard to believe that any of the first-year coaches are going to get canned. I know the Jags just did it, but firing a first-year coach means that you made a terrible personnel decision, and most GMs don't like to admit they made that big a mistake. Also, I think Houston and possibly the Jets would be well-served to tank another year, so as long as the current head coaches are not doing anything egregious, I think they'll be retained.
Good points above on the Giants and Denver -- there could be changes in both places for the reasons stated and I missed them in my initial post.
I find it very hard to believe that any of the first-year coaches are going to get canned. I know the Jags just did it, but firing a first-year coach means that you made a terrible personnel decision, and most GMs don't like to admit they made that big a mistake. Also, I think Houston and possibly the Jets would be well-served to tank another year, so as long as the current head coaches are not doing anything egregious, I think they'll be retained.
Fitterer has the GM title, but Rhule has final say over the 53-man roster and they hired Fitterer after Rhule. It's basically the same front office structure as New England. So whether it's a coaching or personnel issue, Rhule is ultimately responsible.
I don’t see it. Jets play almost all young guys* on D and many were hurt. So much dead money and players on IR that it would be shocking if Saleh was fired.
*youngest team in NFL
Denver is interesting because they'll probably be trying to trade for Wilson, Watson, or Rodgers this offseason. Is it easier to convince one of those guys to come play for Vic Fangio or for mysterious coach X? Do they have an inside track on one of the trade targets and is there a coach that would be a particularly good fit for that particular QB?
Both Detroit and Houston went into this season expecting to suck and emphasizing longer-term plans for digging out and neither of their head coaches has really done anything particularly wrong or stupid, so I have trouble seeing either organization move on so quickly.
Both Detroit and Houston went into this season expecting to suck and emphasizing longer-term plans for digging out and neither of their head coaches has really done anything particularly wrong or stupid, so I have trouble seeing either organization move on so quickly.
Oh interesting. Thanks for the info!
Very hard to see the Raiders keeping the interim guy. The Raiders have been sprinting backwards and their antics v. the Chiefs last week ahead of getting blown out were an embarrassment, which won't help things. They are just outside of playoff contention, so I suspect Davis is going to be convinced that with the right coach and some injury luck, they'll make the playoffs next year.
Denver might make the playoffs if they do i think vic gets at least 1 more year
and to be honest Denver is a star qb away from being a sb cont
Watson is going to miami unless hou lowers their price
wilson is going to vegas or NO i learn toward NO
rodgers is the inseting one i say den vegas or back in GB
and if dreck carr gets bounce for rodgers or wilson i think he goes to den or sea
i see denver qb in 22 like this
carr 3/1 rodgers 5/1 teddy b 10/1 get a stopgap and pick a 1st round qb in 23 20/1
and to be honest Denver is a star qb away from being a sb cont
Watson is going to miami unless hou lowers their price
wilson is going to vegas or NO i learn toward NO
rodgers is the inseting one i say den vegas or back in GB
and if dreck carr gets bounce for rodgers or wilson i think he goes to den or sea
i see denver qb in 22 like this
carr 3/1 rodgers 5/1 teddy b 10/1 get a stopgap and pick a 1st round qb in 23 20/1
Questions like this further makes it make less sense that they didn’t take Jones or Fields. They were in serious need of a franchise quarterback they could build around and next year’s draft is weak at the position. It just feels like someone is going to have to be held accountable for that
Aren’t they trying to win now? Seems like they want a Wilson/Watson/Rodgers with a consolation Jimmy G or something. Probably didn’t scout Mac right and Fields doesn’t look that good right now.
Sure but in the meantime they have Bridgewater, who’s fine but he’s not exactly someone to build around. I don’t think Fields is as bad as he looks, with better coaching I think he turns it around. I don’t think most of the league scouted Jones right, otherwise I don’t think there’s any chance he lasts to pick 15. At the very least a promising quarterback prospect is a good place to start building a trade package around
Jones was meant to go at 3 but lynch fell in love with lance surtain was the best CB in the draft and is allready denver's num 1 cb denver has had the best draft this season out of 32 teams getting 4 long term starters in 1 draft is amazing BTW they are Surtain williams mezthtz browning and cooper as well
Let me be the first to add Kliff Kingsbury to the list. Two shocking offensive performances in a row.
5-10-1 in his first year.
Started out 6-3 last year, then finished 8-8
10-2 to start this year. Now 2 losses in a row with remaining games against Colts, Cowboys and Seahawks. They only need one win to make the playoffs, which should be enough to let Kliff keep his job. I doubt Seattle puts up much of a fight in the final game of the season.
He’s not the CotY frontrunner anymore, but Kingsbury isn’t going anywhere. Most thought the Cards would finish last in that division, and they’re only three years removed from the worst record in the league. Kingsbury is doing a good job.
If Joe Judge gets fired in NY (and I think he will, that team needs a complete overhaul and I'd think a new GM would want his own guy in) I wonder if BB would bring him back as a consultant a la Matt Patricia.
And/or to coach special teams; that unit has not been great this year. I agree he’s likely out. Giants are in need of a full rebuild and the prognosis on D. Jones is going to complicate things further.
No way Judge survives Black Monday. He will be an interesting case, because I doubt he will go from being a Head Coach back to a Special Teams Coordinator. Maybe he joins the Pats for the playoffs (didn't we bring back McDaniels for a similair role after he was fired from Denver?). But he doesn't have any real experience on either side of the ball, so he really can't go to being a coordinator somewhere. Maybe some advisory role with the Pats and then to college?
I would bet that a middling Power 5 school would want Joe Judge, Leader of Men, to coach their team. I don't know whether that's more attractive to him than being a star special teams coordinator.
Edit: in 2022, which I guess is your point. Heck, Jim Mora got a job!
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1475062216080642052
New York Giants plan to bring back HC Joe Judge and QB Daniel Jones for the 2022 season, per sources.
I guess the new GM will be stuck with Judge for a year.
Edit: And my Kliff Kingsbury take looks even better this morning. Ship be sinking.
I don't see why he couldn't / wouldn't go back to ST coordinator. FWIW he was rumored to be the frontrunner for the Mississippi State job (his alma mater) before getting the Giants gig, so I think college is an option. He also coached with Saban at Alabama before joining the Pats.
If they're going to fire Gettleman, I'd think the time would be now so the new GM can evaluate his infrastructure and start getting pieces in place prior to the draft. They have two top 10ish picks. If they wait until after the season, the new guy is going to have to rely on a lot of holdovers. But maybe that's a feature, not a bug to the Giants, who, despite results, seem to like the way they do things and don't have the stomach for real change.
It’s also possible the Giants recognize they’re on the front edge of a full rebuild and are best served having Judge (who seems to be fine culture-wise) oversee a transition year, then hire a coach a year from now when you’ve got tons of cap space, a high draft pick, and no culture problems. That’s what Jacksonville did with Marrone in 2020, and it worked perfectly, except for the part where Shad Khan had perhaps the most plum coaching job in the league and handed it to Urban Meyer for some reason. Giants ownership is too savvy to make that kind of mistake.
Only problem with this theory is that you wouldn’t bring Jones back — you’d send him somewhere for a Darnold-type package as the first step in the rebuild and bring in a retread to play QB for a year. But that deal doesn’t need to happen until draft time, so there’s nothing wrong with platitudes saying you want Jones back for the moment.
Only problem with this theory is that you wouldn’t bring Jones back — you’d send him somewhere for a Darnold-type package as the first step in the rebuild and bring in a retread to play QB for a year. But that deal doesn’t need to happen until draft time, so there’s nothing wrong with platitudes saying you want Jones back for the moment.
Right keeping the coach also gives the GM an "excuse" in his first year - "he wasn't my guy". So you let him stink for a year and then hire your guy, and it buys you time.
It’s been a long time since I’ve heard the word savvy associated with Giants ownership.
They are truly fucked until Mara gets out of the way. The fact that he’s stating that JJ and DJ are returning next year before a GM has been hired is a great example of him not doing so.
It makes just as much sense to bring a new coach in now, so he can get his preferred system and mentality in place before the talent arrives. Like the Dolphins with Flores (which Flores messed up by being too good).
The right coach making too much of the talent on hand is precisely why it makes more sense to wait a year to hire a new coach. You can’t tank even a little bit in football and hope to maintain any semblance of a good culture; the best you can do is put a lame-duck coach in charge of a flawed roster with a lot of dead-cap hits.
I hadn't fully appreciated just how big a draft this is for the NY/NJ teams. They both are likely to have 2 picks in the top 10. I think Judge may survive as long as he gets along well with the new GM.
View: https://twitter.com/alanhahn/status/1475257953175355392?t=lTgXuU_jfBNaY4GWPNKtAg&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/alanhahn/status/1475257953175355392?t=lTgXuU_jfBNaY4GWPNKtAg&s=19
Huge draft for the Jets. We also have the Panthers’ second so Jets might get 4 top 40 picks.
Who are the candidates going to be?
I would think Colts D coordinator; Eberflus.
Maybe Dennis Allen.
Does Bienemy finally get a gig?
Harbaugh go out on a good note from Michigan and back to the NFL?
I found this listing. It seems ok. I’m not sure why Leftwich is so high. Maybe Brady will make some calls for him. Jags could be a nice story
https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2021/12/18/2022-nfl-head-coaching-candidates/?amp
A lot of retreads and not much to get excited about, imo. Doesn’t mean they won’t be good. Bowles probably deserves another shot but he has to go somewhere with better personnel and he has to hire better coordinators.
I would think Colts D coordinator; Eberflus.
Maybe Dennis Allen.
Does Bienemy finally get a gig?
Harbaugh go out on a good note from Michigan and back to the NFL?
I found this listing. It seems ok. I’m not sure why Leftwich is so high. Maybe Brady will make some calls for him. Jags could be a nice story
https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2021/12/18/2022-nfl-head-coaching-candidates/?amp
A lot of retreads and not much to get excited about, imo. Doesn’t mean they won’t be good. Bowles probably deserves another shot but he has to go somewhere with better personnel and he has to hire better coordinators.
The only guy not on that list that I hear a lot of people mentioning is Jim Caldwell, especially for the Jacksonville job.
I know, seems strange to me too.
Wikipedia says his last job was as a consultant to Brian Flores, and he only lasted a few months before leaving for medical reasons.
I know, seems strange to me too.
Wikipedia says his last job was as a consultant to Brian Flores, and he only lasted a few months before leaving for medical reasons.
He's on their interview list:
View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1475927493362302980
Also, Caldwell was a good coach, who got criticized WAY too much for not being emotional on the sidelines. He wasn't any worse than Dungy in IND, then got fired after going 2-14 with a team that had no talent and no QB when Peyton missed the year.
He was a good O-coordinator for the Ravens, then went to the Lions where he went 36-28 making the playoffs twice, making him the best coach they'd had since the 1950s. He got fired anyway for Patricia who was garbage.
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Are you a raiders fan? I live in mn and if you like .500 ball then he is your man. Don't have the stats to back it up but everytime I watch the vikes he is the most conservative coach I have ever seen.
Cross-posting from the Seahawks thread:
I realize he has to say things like this, but Pete sounds as though he has a limited grasp of reality
"Not for one reason at all am I thinking that we have to restart this whole thing and create a new philosophy and a new approach and all that," he told 710 ESPN Seattle on Monday. "I don't think that. I think we've got the essence of the things that we need. We've got to build on them, we've got to support it better and we've got to continue to grow and progress. There ain't no standing still, but there's the foundation for doing things."
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32948040/after-rare-losing-season-pete-carroll-says-seattle-seahawks-need-retool-not-restart-whole-thing
I realize he has to say things like this, but Pete sounds as though he has a limited grasp of reality
"Not for one reason at all am I thinking that we have to restart this whole thing and create a new philosophy and a new approach and all that," he told 710 ESPN Seattle on Monday. "I don't think that. I think we've got the essence of the things that we need. We've got to build on them, we've got to support it better and we've got to continue to grow and progress. There ain't no standing still, but there's the foundation for doing things."
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32948040/after-rare-losing-season-pete-carroll-says-seattle-seahawks-need-retool-not-restart-whole-thing
I am, and I do recognize that Zimmer has had some ups and downs. But right now, I think the Raiders are in more disarray than usual and think an experienced, steady hand like Zimmer, warts and all, is probably one of the better options for the team rather than elevating a coordinator from somewhere or taking a different retread who has been out of the head coach business for a couple of years.
Edit: I wouldn't be upset with Bowles or Daboll either, but I think I I'd still prefer Zimmer.
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A retread might not be the worst idea for Jacksonville. Don't laugh but I think they need a coach who has the NFL credibility to last 2-3 years even if the Jags are terrible after what happened with Meyer.
Does Bill O'Brien get another shot at an NFL gig, or is it too soon? Head Coach O'Brien was okay, GM O'Brien was terrible.
Didnt realize Doug Marrone was also in Coach Rehab at Alabama. Probably too soon for him to get another gig, the stink of the 1-15 2020 season is still too fresh.
Didnt realize Doug Marrone was also in Coach Rehab at Alabama. Probably too soon for him to get another gig, the stink of the 1-15 2020 season is still too fresh.
I'm not sure Joe Judge is going to make it. He apparently had a lengthy post-game rant today that contained a number of unlikely assertions, including that:
The entire Pats' coaching staff thought they were getting fired in 2018.
The 2019 Giants who won 2 of their last 3 games told him that everyone on the team had quit.
Multiple players have called him to say that they wish they'd stayed on the Giants rather than taking more money to play elsewhere.
I guess he gets points for passion, but he's not acting like a guy who's comfortable that everything is going to work out for him.
https://www.nj.com/giants/2022/01/giants-joe-judge-goes-on-long-expletive-filled-rant-after-29-3-loss-to-bears-this-aint-some-clown-show-everything-he-said.html
The entire Pats' coaching staff thought they were getting fired in 2018.
The 2019 Giants who won 2 of their last 3 games told him that everyone on the team had quit.
Multiple players have called him to say that they wish they'd stayed on the Giants rather than taking more money to play elsewhere.
I guess he gets points for passion, but he's not acting like a guy who's comfortable that everything is going to work out for him.
https://www.nj.com/giants/2022/01/giants-joe-judge-goes-on-long-expletive-filled-rant-after-29-3-loss-to-bears-this-aint-some-clown-show-everything-he-said.html