Is it too early to be concerned with Thorton? 6 games played, 10 receptions for 86 yards. 4 receptions for 42 in last 4 games. I realize the whole offense has shit the bed, and he's a rookie, but he seems to have regressed after initially sparking the offense in his first 2 games, and I don't even notice him on the field.
2022 Patriot Offense
- Thread starter Toe Nash
- Start date
You answered your own question. The best receivers in the league would have terrible #s this year because of how the offense is playing. Not sure we can read anything into a rookie not doing much.
NFL points per game per team, 2010-2022:
2010: NFL 22.0, NE 32.4 (+10.4)
2011: NFL 22.2, NE 32.1 (+9.9)
2012: NFL 22.8, NE 34.8 (+12.0)
2013: NFL 23.4, NE 27.8 (+4.4)
2014: NFL 22.6, NE 29.3 (+5.7)
2015: NFL 22.8, NE 29.1 (+6.3)
2016: NFL 22.8, NE 27.6 (+4.8)
2017: NFL 21.7, NE 28.6 (+6.9)
2018: NFL 23.3, NE 27.3 (+4.0)
2019: NFL 22.8, NE 26.3 (+3.5)
2020: NFL 24.8, NE 20.4 (-4.4)
2021: NFL 23.0, NE 21.4 (-1.6)
2022: NFL 21.8, NE 21.3 (-0.5)
Remember when the Pats were an offensive juggernaut? Yeah, that was awesome.
2010: NFL 22.0, NE 32.4 (+10.4)
2011: NFL 22.2, NE 32.1 (+9.9)
2012: NFL 22.8, NE 34.8 (+12.0)
2013: NFL 23.4, NE 27.8 (+4.4)
2014: NFL 22.6, NE 29.3 (+5.7)
2015: NFL 22.8, NE 29.1 (+6.3)
2016: NFL 22.8, NE 27.6 (+4.8)
2017: NFL 21.7, NE 28.6 (+6.9)
2018: NFL 23.3, NE 27.3 (+4.0)
2019: NFL 22.8, NE 26.3 (+3.5)
2020: NFL 24.8, NE 20.4 (-4.4)
2021: NFL 23.0, NE 21.4 (-1.6)
2022: NFL 21.8, NE 21.3 (-0.5)
Remember when the Pats were an offensive juggernaut? Yeah, that was awesome.
There haven’t been too many chances where you can just send him long… I actually have liked what he has done in the middle (Sunday drop aside) . It is tough to do much, especially at Wide Receiver
The last couple of games have convinced me that BB broke this offense by handing it and the OL/QB over to Patricia and Judge. I don't mean that he did it intentionally, that is obviously not the case, but I think he fucked up his coaching hires and wound up with somehting that is fundamentally broken.
The line finally gave Mac much improved protection, and thre Pats came out aggressively and scored their first 1st quarter TD of the season with Mac hitting a couple of big pass plays. It was the best he has looked all year. And the best Patricia, BB, and Judge could manage to do after that was spend the rest of the first half in a conservative shell nor moving the ball and not even trying to go downfield. Until the 2 minute drill where Mac was once again allowed to open it up and he did well. (Mac made one critical error in judgment during the 2 minute drill, which componded an even worse error in judgment by Hunter Henry, but his execution of the 2 minute offense was fine.)
The second half was more of the same.
The line finally gave Mac much improved protection, and thre Pats came out aggressively and scored their first 1st quarter TD of the season with Mac hitting a couple of big pass plays. It was the best he has looked all year. And the best Patricia, BB, and Judge could manage to do after that was spend the rest of the first half in a conservative shell nor moving the ball and not even trying to go downfield. Until the 2 minute drill where Mac was once again allowed to open it up and he did well. (Mac made one critical error in judgment during the 2 minute drill, which componded an even worse error in judgment by Hunter Henry, but his execution of the 2 minute offense was fine.)
The second half was more of the same.
There were 3 first half drives in question. I don't agree they were too conservative, but they did leave some plays on the field.
1.) Conservative start but Stevenson forced his way forward for 5 yards. Rham then dropped an easily catchable ball on 3rd down that led to the punt; had he held it (which he should have), he had blockers in front of him and would have made it into at least FG territory. I don't blame the play calling there.
2.) Short field ruined by horrible play call on the reverse that fooled noone. If you want to give Patricia/Judge a D for the game based on that one play call, you would be justified, IMO.
3.) Stevenson had a nice run to start the drive after the nice kick return. But then they called the exact same play, and did seem to get overly conservative on the next couple. But IIRC it seemed as if Bourne and Stevenson had some slips on the turf as well that limited their gains.
Next one was the 2 minute drive to end the half. I think Henry thought he had a wide open field in front of him had he got by Kendricks, and the slide sack was entirely on Mac.
On the 2nd half:
1.) Nice opening drive engineered by Mac.
2.) 4 points removed by egregious and fireable offense by the replay official.
3.) They went deep on 3rd and long after going short on 2nd-and-9. I probably would have preferred they do that in reverse. Also, the Pats receivers and Mac and the sideline thought there was illegal contact or a face mask on the 3rd down play, but I missed the replay.
4.) They should have tried running the ball when it was 3rd down and a thin yard. Worst case they go for the pass play or a sneak on 4th. Instead they lined up empty backfield for a lower percentage play where they couldn't even attempt a play action. Patricia fail on this one.
Then back to the hurry up, where a nice drive was ruined by a missed hold.
I'd give the offensive coaching a C+ overall; not the worst day, but could have been better.
It was. But it was more of an error in judgment than execution. It wasn't a sack in the traditional sense - it could easily have been scored a rush for no gain - and the error there was not "getting sacked," "lack of awareness of the pass rush," "needing to get the ball out to avoid a big loss," his usual issues on sacks, it was not stopping the clock when he had a chance. Just a different type of mistake.
They just don't seem to have an effective first/second down offense, despite having a very good RB. Mac is not at a point in his career (and he may never be) where he can consistently climb out of third and long.
He's cut way down on turnovers and turnover-worthy plays since his return.
I think there is something strategically wrong with the offense that doesn't necessarily show up at a play by play level.
George Pickens, a lower draft pick on a team that's 29th in points and 28th in yards has 33 catches, 453 yards, 13.7 ypc. (10 games)
Alec Pierce, a lower draft pick on a team that's 28th in points and 19th in yards has 28 catches, 454 yards, 15.1 ypc. (10 games)
I think the answer to the poster's question is that there is a reason to be at least a bit concerned about what we see from TT. This team has a pitiful track record drafting and developing WR and having his development truncated by injury was less than ideal, but unless he turns things around as the season winds down this certainly has the look of a lost year. The kid has basically shown nothing out there. 10 catches on 21 targets, 86 yards, 8.6 ypc is terrible.
As there have been some comments on the Pats red zone offense against the Vikings, thought it would be worth recapping here:
1: Pats get to the Vikings 17 on the back of the Jonathan Jones INT. Patricia bones the drive with an egregiously horrible reverse call on 2nd down that sets up 3rd-and-14. FG
2: Last drive of the first half. This was less on the coaching and more on a couple of player mistakes: Henry failing to get out of bounds (he probably thought he could get by the defender for an open field down the sideline), and Mac's slide/sack where he probably should have thrown the ball away, and seemed to realize it immediately after. I file this one under shit happens category. FG.
3: Drive ruined by replay official. Can't really blame the offense here. FG
OTOH, the 2 TD's were from 30+ yard chunk plays, and those count as well. First red zone drive was the only one I truly had a problem with. Overall a solid B in my book, and C+ on the coaching for the reverse.
1: Pats get to the Vikings 17 on the back of the Jonathan Jones INT. Patricia bones the drive with an egregiously horrible reverse call on 2nd down that sets up 3rd-and-14. FG
2: Last drive of the first half. This was less on the coaching and more on a couple of player mistakes: Henry failing to get out of bounds (he probably thought he could get by the defender for an open field down the sideline), and Mac's slide/sack where he probably should have thrown the ball away, and seemed to realize it immediately after. I file this one under shit happens category. FG.
3: Drive ruined by replay official. Can't really blame the offense here. FG
OTOH, the 2 TD's were from 30+ yard chunk plays, and those count as well. First red zone drive was the only one I truly had a problem with. Overall a solid B in my book, and C+ on the coaching for the reverse.
I don't understand why the jet sweep has all but vanished from the Pats offense. It's a fast developing play that doesn't have the same risk of lost yardage as a traditional reverse. It hasn't always worked, either, but it seems like a way safer play to run in that situation.
Yep. I mean, Mac hit passes of 40, 40, 37, 34, 26, 23, and 22 yards. Half of those were of the catch and run variety as opposed to downfield completions, but the 2 passes on the first drive (to Meyers and the TD to Agholor) and the bomb to Parker were downfield ones.
I have no idea why Thornton can’t run a jet sweep or a fake jet sweep every game - and why no plays are being called to put the ball in his hand. I watch teams run fantastic behind the line plays with their best and fastest players and ours usually end up just a with a loss or small gain. It used to be a staple of the Patriots offense.
This is one of the reasons I am concerned about the schemes and play calling
I think this is somewhat a statement about the offensive line. There's a lot of traffic behind the LOS on those plays and if just one of the lineman leaks, it can get busted up in a hurry.
I don't know if they've tried this much this year, but just having Mac hand off to the in-motion receiver might alleviate the time the line has to maintain its blocks
Adding to the OL/blocking issues I have been beyond frustrated with Jonnu and Henry as blockers. They are both middle of the road in pass pro although neither guy has more than like 32 or so reps doing that this year. But as run blockers they just get obliterated every snap. Henry has even improved as a run blocker this year. PFF grades are not wonderful but in this case they match the film/eye test. Of tight ends with 20% blocking snaps there are 77 guys. Of those 77 Jonnu Smith has the 2nd lowest run blocking grade. 34.9. Over half his snaps are run blocks, 51.5%. Henry is 63rd out of 77, he has run blocked 39.6% of the time. His run block grade is a 47.1.
In 2021 Jonnu was 85th of 85 for run blocking with a grade of 42.5. Henry was 41st of 85 with a 60.1 grade. However Jonnu was run blocking 59.3% of the time and Henry was blocking 34.7% of the time. Henry was the primary 11 TE. He had easier assignments last year as a run blocker.
So the Patriots have changed their tendencies marginally with the tight ends having Hunter Henry run block more and Jonnu block less. Part of that is because Henry is now the primary TE in 11 and they run that a lot more. Henry has played 77% of the snaps vs 67% last year while Jonnu is down to 43% of snaps this year. Jonnu was their primary 21 TE but since they no longer run that much he's in 12 and 11 when Henry needs a breather.
The issue with both guys in the run game this year and last really perplexes me. They ask them to take on DTs, DEs, and OLBs. You know why they have so many negative and/or unsuccessful plays? Well one of the reasons, not the primary one but certainly in the middle 5-10, is the tight end blocking. These guys can't block defensive linemen and I include the bigger/medium OLBs in that group. They need to be able to do that though as tight ends because in a lot of run concepts the TE takes on an edge player or even a DE. You'll see shit like weakside inside zone where Henry gets beaten so badly by the DE that the frontside DE actually makes the TFL. And It's just infuriating.
I don't know what you do with the tight ends. On the one hand tight end play is down across the league and pass-catching is a more important trait for tight ends and Henry is still an above average guy there. But on the other hand they want to be a run heavy team and could really use an upgrade. I love Washington in the draft. If they solve OT in free agency I wouldn't mind them taking a shot there early and getting a freak/unicorn.
What about you all - what do you think they should do at tight end next year?
Jonnu:
Cut Pre-June 1 2023:
Cut Post-June 1 2023:
Trade Pre-June-1:
Trade Post-June-1:
Your ideal scenario is a trade post June 1st 2023 but who in their right mind is going to pay him 10,000,000 next year and 11,000,000 in 2024 for a tight end who doesn't do anything well but run after the catch? No one that's who. So realistically I think you cut him post June 1st 2023. And for those who thought Jonnu would be better in year 2 he's actually a hair worse with yards per game with 18.2 vs 18.4 last year.
Here is Hunter Henry:
Cutting him pre-June 1 and post-June-1 2023 are the same cap numbers and savings as trading him pre or post-June 1:
Personally I would try and trade Jonnu for a bag of balls and if I couldn't trade him then I would cut him post June 1. I would also cut or trade Henry but hope I could maybe get a slightly better return. You'd save about 15.3 million in 2023 doing this and I think they could replace their production with a couple of bridge guys for less than that. It's not a good FA TE year but it never really is. TE is a wasteland across the NFL.
In 2021 Jonnu was 85th of 85 for run blocking with a grade of 42.5. Henry was 41st of 85 with a 60.1 grade. However Jonnu was run blocking 59.3% of the time and Henry was blocking 34.7% of the time. Henry was the primary 11 TE. He had easier assignments last year as a run blocker.
So the Patriots have changed their tendencies marginally with the tight ends having Hunter Henry run block more and Jonnu block less. Part of that is because Henry is now the primary TE in 11 and they run that a lot more. Henry has played 77% of the snaps vs 67% last year while Jonnu is down to 43% of snaps this year. Jonnu was their primary 21 TE but since they no longer run that much he's in 12 and 11 when Henry needs a breather.
The issue with both guys in the run game this year and last really perplexes me. They ask them to take on DTs, DEs, and OLBs. You know why they have so many negative and/or unsuccessful plays? Well one of the reasons, not the primary one but certainly in the middle 5-10, is the tight end blocking. These guys can't block defensive linemen and I include the bigger/medium OLBs in that group. They need to be able to do that though as tight ends because in a lot of run concepts the TE takes on an edge player or even a DE. You'll see shit like weakside inside zone where Henry gets beaten so badly by the DE that the frontside DE actually makes the TFL. And It's just infuriating.
I don't know what you do with the tight ends. On the one hand tight end play is down across the league and pass-catching is a more important trait for tight ends and Henry is still an above average guy there. But on the other hand they want to be a run heavy team and could really use an upgrade. I love Washington in the draft. If they solve OT in free agency I wouldn't mind them taking a shot there early and getting a freak/unicorn.
What about you all - what do you think they should do at tight end next year?
Jonnu:
Cut Pre-June 1 2023:
Cut Post-June 1 2023:
Trade Pre-June-1:
Trade Post-June-1:
Your ideal scenario is a trade post June 1st 2023 but who in their right mind is going to pay him 10,000,000 next year and 11,000,000 in 2024 for a tight end who doesn't do anything well but run after the catch? No one that's who. So realistically I think you cut him post June 1st 2023. And for those who thought Jonnu would be better in year 2 he's actually a hair worse with yards per game with 18.2 vs 18.4 last year.
Here is Hunter Henry:
Cutting him pre-June 1 and post-June-1 2023 are the same cap numbers and savings as trading him pre or post-June 1:
Personally I would try and trade Jonnu for a bag of balls and if I couldn't trade him then I would cut him post June 1. I would also cut or trade Henry but hope I could maybe get a slightly better return. You'd save about 15.3 million in 2023 doing this and I think they could replace their production with a couple of bridge guys for less than that. It's not a good FA TE year but it never really is. TE is a wasteland across the NFL.
Excellent post. TE position has been a big disappointment. I can't really see both of these guys on the roster next year. At least not with current contracts. Good chunk of money for little production.
If Pats can trade Jonnu, they certainly do that but as you mentioned, it's unlikely any team will take him. Maybe you get lucky and convince some team with cap space to take him. Maybe taking the lesser of a later round pick swap?
If not, with 6.25M of his salary guaranteed, I wouldn't be surprised if Pats kept Jonnu. The question is how much is he worth to the Patriots? Is he worth 4.75M? maybe. I could see the Pats going either way. Might depend on what else they do.
Henry probably has a better chance of being traded. Salary might be a little high but, as said, there are not a lot of productive TEs out there. I could see some team potentially taking a flier. Maybe even work out a couple year deal with him. Or maybe he's open to a re-worked deal with the Patriots. Unlike Jonnu, Henry has no guaranteed salary after this season so he may more open to renegotiate.
If Pats can trade Jonnu, they certainly do that but as you mentioned, it's unlikely any team will take him. Maybe you get lucky and convince some team with cap space to take him. Maybe taking the lesser of a later round pick swap?
If not, with 6.25M of his salary guaranteed, I wouldn't be surprised if Pats kept Jonnu. The question is how much is he worth to the Patriots? Is he worth 4.75M? maybe. I could see the Pats going either way. Might depend on what else they do.
Henry probably has a better chance of being traded. Salary might be a little high but, as said, there are not a lot of productive TEs out there. I could see some team potentially taking a flier. Maybe even work out a couple year deal with him. Or maybe he's open to a re-worked deal with the Patriots. Unlike Jonnu, Henry has no guaranteed salary after this season so he may more open to renegotiate.
Thanks - btw I think they can get a bridge TE or two for 2 years for around 5-8m tops leaving them 7m+ to spend on other positions. Ted Karras was 3/18 so with the savings they get in my scenario I would want them to invest that into the OL with a guy who can be an average to above average starter in the interior. I don't know if Strange is going to improve in year 2 enough that they might want to bench him and/or Andrews is already starting to decline physically and his injuries are mounting. I would draft a TE. I would also be fine downgrading the production there.
You could probably get OJ Howard at 3.5m a year. Hayden Hurst around 8-10m (pricey/too-pricey). Dan Arnold around 2-3m as a receiving option there. Irv Smith Jr. for around 4m. Austin Hooper for 4.25m. So to me why not get OJ Howard at 3.5m and Hooper or Irv Smith Jr. for 4.0-4.25 and for total less than 8m? 7.5-7.75 million. Foster Moreau could probably be had for like 3-5m too. There are a lot of guys who could give you 200-400 yards receiving and better blocking and save you that money. You will lose some receiving production but does it really matter? Wouldn't the money be better spent elsewhere. I certainly think so. If the line isn't top 10 next year we have a problem.
You could probably get OJ Howard at 3.5m a year. Hayden Hurst around 8-10m (pricey/too-pricey). Dan Arnold around 2-3m as a receiving option there. Irv Smith Jr. for around 4m. Austin Hooper for 4.25m. So to me why not get OJ Howard at 3.5m and Hooper or Irv Smith Jr. for 4.0-4.25 and for total less than 8m? 7.5-7.75 million. Foster Moreau could probably be had for like 3-5m too. There are a lot of guys who could give you 200-400 yards receiving and better blocking and save you that money. You will lose some receiving production but does it really matter? Wouldn't the money be better spent elsewhere. I certainly think so. If the line isn't top 10 next year we have a problem.
They let Mac throw a bit in last drive, he moves them down the field, then a draw to Kevin Harris?
Come on--see if Mac can make another sideline throw. You have 2 TOs.
I mean, what is the gameplan you would draw up for a team that can't block, is down it's 2 best WRs, 2 best RBs and has a QB who has happy feet under any pressure? This team is just bad right now and there isn't much to be done but try to not screw it up and hope the defense keeps you in it.
When you get a lead in the second half, you want to call an offense like a defensive coordinator would- minimize risk, maximize possession.
This was an great video, I wonder if the Patriots have (or should) experiment with the same:
View: https://youtu.be/1e9GnRgzvDs
View: https://youtu.be/1e9GnRgzvDs
So we had heard Trent Brown had illness issues, but a tidbit that came out yesterday.... he lost 12 pounds the last two weeks. Said he finally feels better and is putting weight on this week.
The line was bad before Brown got sick, but it's been at it's worst when he just looks like he has no energy or stamina starting in the Bills game. Might see a small uptick in line play?
The line was bad before Brown got sick, but it's been at it's worst when he just looks like he has no energy or stamina starting in the Bills game. Might see a small uptick in line play?
They score TDs in the Redzone now 7% less often than the #31 teams (the Colts). Leaving a ton of points on the field.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1604902021848567812
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1604902021848567812
Ironically, I was saying the first time they got into the red zone that it looked like they had made some improvements... and then 2nd through 4th down happened.
Does anyone else get the sense that a huge part of the problem on offense is indecision from Patricia. I feel like we have had a HUGE number of delay of game penalties and a huge number of timeouts to avoid more of them. But I also think that perhaps he is slow to choose his personnel, which slows down the play-calling, which limits the options for Mac to assess things at the line, pre-snap.
Yes.
The offense is consistently trying to get set and snap the ball while the play clock is to 00 multiple times each drive.
View: https://twitter.com/ChadGraff/status/1605231999530278912?s=20&t=hmLVe3UKBbkke-Cqc8CHZg
If you look at stats that just focus on the offense, this Patriots group looks worse. This team has the lowest EPA/drive of any Patriots team in the Bill Belichick era.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1605217971529551876?s=20&t=hmLVe3UKBbkke-Cqc8CHZg
It's the worst offense in the history of BB offenses in an off-season they added Devante Parker, had all their FAs in the building for year 2, and drafted a 2nd round WR and a 1st round OG. OT and OL play is a part of it. Scheme or lack thereof is a huge part of it. It shouldn't be this bad.
If you look at stats that just focus on the offense, this Patriots group looks worse. This team has the lowest EPA/drive of any Patriots team in the Bill Belichick era.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1605217971529551876?s=20&t=hmLVe3UKBbkke-Cqc8CHZg
It's the worst offense in the history of BB offenses in an off-season they added Devante Parker, had all their FAs in the building for year 2, and drafted a 2nd round WR and a 1st round OG. OT and OL play is a part of it. Scheme or lack thereof is a huge part of it. It shouldn't be this bad.
Members here did not like the decision by Belichick to not bring in an actual OC and assign two guys to the position who have never called offensive plays on any level when it was first announced, beat writers said the offense was bad and not fluid all camp long, but Belichick stuck to his plan and this is the end result.
They rarely get in the red zone and when they do, they are terrible.
Zero 4th quarter TD passes 14 games into the season.
He had better bring in an actual OC next year and own the fact that he made a poor choice.
If he sticks with Patricia/Judge in 2023, that's coaching malpractice.
I just don't understand his decision this year, we're talking about a 2nd year QB who needs all the offensive coaching he can get, but instead he hands the kid two guys who are not offensive minded coaches, what wisdom/advice could they possibly impart on him?
Just a completely idiotic coaching decision.
They rarely get in the red zone and when they do, they are terrible.
Zero 4th quarter TD passes 14 games into the season.
He had better bring in an actual OC next year and own the fact that he made a poor choice.
If he sticks with Patricia/Judge in 2023, that's coaching malpractice.
I just don't understand his decision this year, we're talking about a 2nd year QB who needs all the offensive coaching he can get, but instead he hands the kid two guys who are not offensive minded coaches, what wisdom/advice could they possibly impart on him?
Just a completely idiotic coaching decision.
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A bit on the long side, about 10 minutes, but Mike Lombardi saying, obviously, Belichick made a huge error with the Patricia/Judge hire. No gameplan, no scheme, and they just run plays. O line is terrible.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJc4LCImE6k
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJc4LCImE6k
For the entirety of the Belichick run, the passing offense of the Patriots has heavily relied on a possession, slot receiver who was elite at getting open in the middle of the field, and a #2/3 receiver who was either a technician or elite at gathering the ball in traffic. Troy Brown to Wes Welker to Julian Edelman, David Patten to Deion Branch to Randy Moss to Gronk, with a sprinkling of excellent #3's in Givens, Stallworth, Amendola, probably some I am forgetting - on top of that an elite pass catching back as a quality escape valve - Faulk to Woodhead, Vereen, D Lewis, White , this covered Charlie Weis, Bill O'Brien, and Josh McDaniels - so we aren't talking about just one coordinator, though obviously one QB.
Looking at last year, maybe I can squint and see Branden Bolden once White got hurt, but no replacement for the Edelman role - Jakobi Meyers might be the #2 role, and Kendrick Bourne might be the #2 role, but Agholar got paid a ton to fill a role that the Patriots literally haven't had in the offense since maybe Dante Stallworth 15 years ago (fast guy to throw downfield to if no one else is open) - and then this year, no third down back of consequence, so that Rham serves that role, but because of that when Harris is hurt, Rham has to sit out drives because he can't get cycled out. And the draft capital is spent on Parker and Thornton, neither of whom do the thing in the offense that has been most missing since Edelman got hurt in 2020, which is that guy who finds holes in the defense. Hunter Henry doesn't do that, Jonnu Smith doesn't do that, neither of them wins balls in traffic well enough to overcome their route running (and other than Kelce and Andrews and maybe healthy Kittle, no one in the league at TE is that guy right now) - they've spent crazy capital on offense and yet don't have the essential player(s) to keep drives moving, which is the slot guy and the third down guy.
Bill has been picking the groceries for more than 20 years, always with success in this area - even when we were throwing Austin Collie out there, that team had Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Vereen - a ton of injuries there, and wasted resources on Dobson to name one, but the philosophy was getting guys who could get open in space and keep chains moving.
I don't actually know with the personnel Bill has assembled here what the passing offense should really look like - it's a mish mash of skill sets that offers little in the way of reliability with route running and finding mismatches These guys don't win 1 on 1 easy, they don't contest balls well, they don't get open all that well - I can't stand that Matt Patricia is the offensive coordinator, but I also don't see players who fit together in any sort of coherent way.
For example people mocked the Christian Kirk signing, but he has helped unlock Lawrence, made Zay Jones a major threat on the outside, and freed Evan Engram to a career year. Having a Tyler Lockett catching 72% of his targets is allowing Geno Smith to make both him and DK look good. Not every offense needs to run the same way, but the good ones tend to have a guy who can win outside and a guy who can win inside and this team has neither. I don't know what playcalls you run passing with this group and feel good that you're scheming a mismatch to make a play. Agholar for all his speed doesn't look to me like he gets open well, and there's tons of corners who run fast - you beat them with speed when you combine that with technique and have teammates who force the defense to play towards the line of scrimmage.
Bill has found those guys for 25 years from the 7th round, undrafted, 4th round, and its hard for me to imagine he's lost that ability, but you could give this offense to Norv Turner in his prime (just to name an OC who was pretty damn well successful) and I'm not seeing where he's scheming mismatches with this group.
The personnel team here has utterly failed - until that is fixed, coaching might mask some stuff, but you're not putting a winning program out there.
Looking at last year, maybe I can squint and see Branden Bolden once White got hurt, but no replacement for the Edelman role - Jakobi Meyers might be the #2 role, and Kendrick Bourne might be the #2 role, but Agholar got paid a ton to fill a role that the Patriots literally haven't had in the offense since maybe Dante Stallworth 15 years ago (fast guy to throw downfield to if no one else is open) - and then this year, no third down back of consequence, so that Rham serves that role, but because of that when Harris is hurt, Rham has to sit out drives because he can't get cycled out. And the draft capital is spent on Parker and Thornton, neither of whom do the thing in the offense that has been most missing since Edelman got hurt in 2020, which is that guy who finds holes in the defense. Hunter Henry doesn't do that, Jonnu Smith doesn't do that, neither of them wins balls in traffic well enough to overcome their route running (and other than Kelce and Andrews and maybe healthy Kittle, no one in the league at TE is that guy right now) - they've spent crazy capital on offense and yet don't have the essential player(s) to keep drives moving, which is the slot guy and the third down guy.
Bill has been picking the groceries for more than 20 years, always with success in this area - even when we were throwing Austin Collie out there, that team had Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Vereen - a ton of injuries there, and wasted resources on Dobson to name one, but the philosophy was getting guys who could get open in space and keep chains moving.
I don't actually know with the personnel Bill has assembled here what the passing offense should really look like - it's a mish mash of skill sets that offers little in the way of reliability with route running and finding mismatches These guys don't win 1 on 1 easy, they don't contest balls well, they don't get open all that well - I can't stand that Matt Patricia is the offensive coordinator, but I also don't see players who fit together in any sort of coherent way.
For example people mocked the Christian Kirk signing, but he has helped unlock Lawrence, made Zay Jones a major threat on the outside, and freed Evan Engram to a career year. Having a Tyler Lockett catching 72% of his targets is allowing Geno Smith to make both him and DK look good. Not every offense needs to run the same way, but the good ones tend to have a guy who can win outside and a guy who can win inside and this team has neither. I don't know what playcalls you run passing with this group and feel good that you're scheming a mismatch to make a play. Agholar for all his speed doesn't look to me like he gets open well, and there's tons of corners who run fast - you beat them with speed when you combine that with technique and have teammates who force the defense to play towards the line of scrimmage.
Bill has found those guys for 25 years from the 7th round, undrafted, 4th round, and its hard for me to imagine he's lost that ability, but you could give this offense to Norv Turner in his prime (just to name an OC who was pretty damn well successful) and I'm not seeing where he's scheming mismatches with this group.
The personnel team here has utterly failed - until that is fixed, coaching might mask some stuff, but you're not putting a winning program out there.
Work is slow today. Don't forget to buy PepsiCo products. I might have taken the afternoon to go over the game...
A few things I noticed. 1) What could go wrong went wrong with either Mac or the receivers. Mac was either inaccurate or when he made a good throw they wouldn't catch it. 2) the spacing is still fucked. Remember the Hunter Henry drop on third down? Sorry my game-pass pause thing is up. I can't figure out how to get rid of it and use my snip-it. That is fuck-awful spacing.
3) their third down play calls are way too predictable. They run like 2-3-4 staple plays including double digs/ins. The spacing on them is mediocre too. I think Evan Lazar points this out in his piece too.
The fact that it is still this bad in week 15 gives me 0 hope for the rest of the season. On the plus side the run blocking from the OL was good. Jonnu still sucks.
A few things I noticed. 1) What could go wrong went wrong with either Mac or the receivers. Mac was either inaccurate or when he made a good throw they wouldn't catch it. 2) the spacing is still fucked. Remember the Hunter Henry drop on third down? Sorry my game-pass pause thing is up. I can't figure out how to get rid of it and use my snip-it. That is fuck-awful spacing.
3) their third down play calls are way too predictable. They run like 2-3-4 staple plays including double digs/ins. The spacing on them is mediocre too. I think Evan Lazar points this out in his piece too.
The fact that it is still this bad in week 15 gives me 0 hope for the rest of the season. On the plus side the run blocking from the OL was good. Jonnu still sucks.
Yum!
There's something that seems to get overlooked in the OC discussion. We (well, not me, but people who know what they're talking about) focus a lot on play-calling. But isn't what SMU references here -- spacing -- also an aspect of offensive-coordinator-ing? I assume the play wasn't designed to have shitty spacing, but I guess where I'm going is that it appears that the offensive coaches are actually coaching shitty in addition to play-calling shitty. It seems unlikely that a majority of receivers continuously run bad routes. (That said, though, I was wondering if the WR screwed up somehow (didn;t go deep enough; went too deep; rounded off the cut, etc) on the two (or 3 or 5) out patterns where the throws were way off.)
Lombardi being so vocal about the total dysfunction of the offense is an unexpected development.
So I know people have expressed in Bill O'Brien coming back to OC but I don't see it. First, I'm not sure Bama to this Pats team is an "upgrade". It's not like he's going to the Chiefs or the Bills. If he comes here, he's dealing with *this* offense.
I also don't see it for family reasons. O'Brien's (17ish year old) son has an extremely rare neurological disorder which makes him need care 24/7. I don't see him uprooting his family away from their doctors to take a stop gap job that *may* leap him up to OC in a year or two. I just think his next job will be a 5 or so year deal for 60M somewhere. I don't see him coming back to fix this mess.
I also don't see it for family reasons. O'Brien's (17ish year old) son has an extremely rare neurological disorder which makes him need care 24/7. I don't see him uprooting his family away from their doctors to take a stop gap job that *may* leap him up to OC in a year or two. I just think his next job will be a 5 or so year deal for 60M somewhere. I don't see him coming back to fix this mess.
A long term deal, where he grew up, with a succession plan in place when BB retires, with access to some of the best hospitals and doctors in the world, would seemingly tick a lot boxes. Whether the Patriots would offer that, IDK.
His son was the logical offensive coordinator for the NEP this year but seemingly was allowed to go to the Raiders withouyt much of a fight.
So I'm not being snide but when has a "we bring you in as coordinator and you'll be the next HC" *ever* happened?
Because the guy some of us assumed was brought in under those circumstances beat us last week
Was that the scenario with Parcells for the brief time that BB was the HC of the NYJ?
Fair point, but as BB hits his 70’s, something like that seems a little more plausible.
It is something that the OC and TE and WRs coach would all look at. I know Super Nomario has wondered about Troy Brown the WR coach and if he is doing a good job.
I was going to post about this the other day. I think what is happening is lots of people HATE Patricia (and to a lesser extent Joe Judge), and since he seems to be de facto running the show on offense he is an easy/logical target for any criticism of the staff. And even if anyone criticizing the WRs entertains the notion that Troy shares a good deal of blame here, who wants to criticize the affable Pats legend? I tend to think that people just aren’t making the distinctions between roles/responsibilities on the staff and therefore who is responsible for specific problems, but I also suspect if Troy was the de facto OC and Patricia was the WR coach we would be hearing a lot about Patricia.
It would be more reassuring/easier to foresee a solution if it was all about a failure at the top of the offensive staff.