If I can crib from Danny Leroux. Reggie Bullock career true shooting percentage, 47% in October, 46% in November, then over 60% in almost every other month of the season.
He used to be an “OK” defender. God only knows what he can do now.
2023-24 Celtics
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He used to be an “OK” defender. God only knows what he can do now.
Bullock is ok all the way around. "Mid" kinda fits imo. Ime will probably get him enough run to be a deadline pickup for someone.
Personally I'd prefer to see what the Celtics already have amongst their current bench players before bringing in someone with Bullock's profile.
Personally I'd prefer to see what the Celtics already have amongst their current bench players before bringing in someone with Bullock's profile.
View: https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/1709274776064372883?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1709274776064372883%7Ctwgr%5E7741e346660f7d311c787bc25c8335d894a3e26d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2273068start%3D1380
Celtics top 6 in top 80.
6. Tatum
22. Brown
35. Holiday
46. Porzingis
65. White
79. Horford
Ex-Celtics:
70. Smart
79. Brogdon
82. Timelord
Celtics top 6 in top 80.
6. Tatum
22. Brown
35. Holiday
46. Porzingis
65. White
79. Horford
Ex-Celtics:
70. Smart
79. Brogdon
82. Timelord
Very interesting list...my immediate take away is, how in the fuck is James Harden 21st? Am I missing something? I wouldn't put him in the top 30 let alone almost the top 20.
Overweight, no defense, no responsibility for anything, only wants to play one way....
How is Kawhi 12? I've got a lot of sympathy for him (I'm basically thinking of him as Brandon Roy, if Roy kept trying to play through his injuries), but no team can ever rely on him ever again, not for a year or a day. Doesn't matter if he's still an all-NBA level player when he's healthy, if he's healthy 25% of the time.
This was a great interview with JJ to get more into Joe's head. He's obviously much more comfortable in that setting, seemed like a different guy. If he did a 10 minute sit down like this every week with someone to JJ(not someone like Scal) I would love it
The thing I'm looking forward to most is a Double-Eclipse, with both Kornet and Porzingis doing the Kornet Contest one after another.
He was really good last year on court, this is an on-court ranking, and his defense was decent. He had the 15th highest DPM last year, 16th in LEBRON, 19th in RAPTOR (17th in WAR).
Harden is a guy where the personality is starting to get in the way of people evaluating the talent. He was very very good last year (he also won them 2 games in the Celtics series, which is more than Embiid did). He's really good. Now "VALUE" is probably lower because he's a malcontent and aging, but just on-court, he's clearly a top 25 guy
Harden averaged 35 ppg and shot 61% in their 3 wins, and he averaged 13 points and shot 22%(!) in their 4 losses. He gets credit for winning them 2 games (as you note, Embiid didn't do that much) but man did he just murder them in their losses. Maybe it mattered less because they get hammered in games 2 and 7, but if he'd shown up for game 6, Tatum might not have had a chance to redeem himself because Boston would've been double digits late. I think on the whole, his postseason was exactly the same as it's been for most of his career - disappointing compared to how he plays in the regular season (man he really belongs with Embiid).
Whether it's just his style (he doesn't get the same calls, or the defense is just better) or he can't handle the increased pressure, the borderline top 20 player that Harden is in the regular season just doesn't exist in the playoffs.
I believe JJ mentioned in his comments to the Jrue trade that there's an entire OM&TT episode with Coach Joe coming down the pike.
Yeah I saw that in comments after I posted. I don't generally listen to longer formed content like a podcast, but I'm definitely going to give this a listen
Yeah it was 2 days before, I saw a clip of JJ being sad that it was pre Jrue trade
There are very few players between 16 and 35 on that list I would take over Jrue and many for whom I don’t think it is a serious debate. Same for 30-46 and Porzingis. JJJ at 32 is another guys I think is way too low. There’s also no universe where Smart is that close in ranking to Brogdon, which highlights how these lists continue to overemphasize scoring ability as against being an NBA player whose value is primarily (or significantly) in other areas.
Not surprisingly, he really wanted the #1 seed.
Probably there isn't anything that Brad could have told him that would have calmed his worries that his job was on the line at all times. He mentioned early in the interview that if he had lost in the first round, he would have been fired. Definitely was the main thing on his mind.
We can talk all we want about player development and not worrying about the regular season, but it probably takes some success and a season or two of not getting fired for a coach to actually believe that the team will back him on that.
Also, if we'd have played Miami in the first round, we'd have had a fully healthy Brogdon to do so, and Tatum would have been less likely to get hurt in a hypothetical Game 7 just from wear and tear.
Just looking at something real quick. These are minutes from last year of the departed & I'll use WS as the relevant stat because it's easy:
Grant 2,045, 4.4
Smart 1,957, 3.7
Brogdon 1,744, 5.8
Timelord 824, 3.8
Blake 569, 1.8
Muscala 323, 0.8
Vonleh 171, 0.2
JJax 107, 0.1
Champagnie 23, -0.1
So they need to replace 9 players totaling 7,763 minutes & 20.5 Wins (0.127 WS/48).
& they have brought in...
Jrue 2,183, 6.7
Staps 2,102, 7.7
Stevens 1,120, 1.9
Brissett 1,083, 1.1
Gabriel 1,024, 2.8
Svi 468, 0.8
Banton 279, 0.4
Scrubb 30, 0.1
Queta 29, 0.1
So 9 players totaling 8,318 minutes & 21.6 Wins (0.125 WS/48). Plus Jordan Walsh.
So beyond the obvious improvements to a closing 5 lineup, it seems like they aren't really in a much worse situation for the regular season in terms of overall talent & ability to replace the minutes lost. This of course doesn't factor in things like different injury luck for the players they already had & internal improvement/unimprovement, but there are plenty of new bodies capable of playing potentially competent NBA minutes in depth roles.
Grant 2,045, 4.4
Smart 1,957, 3.7
Brogdon 1,744, 5.8
Timelord 824, 3.8
Blake 569, 1.8
Muscala 323, 0.8
Vonleh 171, 0.2
JJax 107, 0.1
Champagnie 23, -0.1
So they need to replace 9 players totaling 7,763 minutes & 20.5 Wins (0.127 WS/48).
& they have brought in...
Jrue 2,183, 6.7
Staps 2,102, 7.7
Stevens 1,120, 1.9
Brissett 1,083, 1.1
Gabriel 1,024, 2.8
Svi 468, 0.8
Banton 279, 0.4
Scrubb 30, 0.1
Queta 29, 0.1
So 9 players totaling 8,318 minutes & 21.6 Wins (0.125 WS/48). Plus Jordan Walsh.
So beyond the obvious improvements to a closing 5 lineup, it seems like they aren't really in a much worse situation for the regular season in terms of overall talent & ability to replace the minutes lost. This of course doesn't factor in things like different injury luck for the players they already had & internal improvement/unimprovement, but there are plenty of new bodies capable of playing potentially competent NBA minutes in depth roles.
The other noticeable thing from the "who's gone" is that they lost basically no wing minutes other than Grant, who is really only a borderline wing, & added several guys who played actual wing minutes previously. I think this will help balance the roster much better. Even if guys like Stevens & Brissett aren't great, they're actual NBA wings. Plus I have irrational hopes that Jordan Walsh can play a few competent minutes here & there.
Here are the returning Celtics in those 2 categories if people are curious (I was curious to see how Hauser compared to the new wings - much better, & he can obviously add more minutes, too).
Tatum 2,732, 10.5
Jaylen 2,405, 5.0
White 2,319, 7.4
Horford 1,922, 6.3
Hauser 1,290, 3.4
Kornet 804, 3.3
Pritchard 643, 0.6
Davison 66, 0.1
Kabengele 36, 0.1
Coincidentally enough, this is also 9 guys. They totaled 12,217 minutes & 36.7 Wins (0.144 WS/48).
Tatum 2,732, 10.5
Jaylen 2,405, 5.0
White 2,319, 7.4
Horford 1,922, 6.3
Hauser 1,290, 3.4
Kornet 804, 3.3
Pritchard 643, 0.6
Davison 66, 0.1
Kabengele 36, 0.1
Coincidentally enough, this is also 9 guys. They totaled 12,217 minutes & 36.7 Wins (0.144 WS/48).
I didn't say "real" minutes, just competent depth minutes not as part of the regular rotation. Like in the 300-500 minute range on the season.
My main takeaway from this is I'm not sure why people want to see more Pritchard. But I'm excited for a fun season. The bottom line is that they seem to have a much better top 6, a worse top 8, & a better top 12.
I think that 500 minutes is real minutes, assuming only 50 games @ 10 minutes with the rest being DNP. I suppose that it's possible. 50 games @6 minutes seems more like a ceiling for me. Would love to be wrong, if he earns that.
Agreed on Pritchard. I do not get it. To me he's injury/rest depth.
I look at it as a range of 4 to 6 minutes per game on the season that could be accomplished in any of a # of ways, but like I said, they aren't the most rational of hopes, but I think for irrational hopes they aren't straight up crazy. Regardless, my larger point is that I love that we have actual wing depth now, with or without Walsh, & I think that will be very helpful throughout the regular season.
I see Pritchard as pretty capped. He's competent within what he is, but for example, Oshae Brissett is younger than Pritchard & has never played with the caliber of teammate that Pritchard has & I think I'd be more comfortable staggering White & Holiday (when they're both available) to have 1 on the floor at all times, with at least 1 of Tatum & Brown at all times, & I'd rather have someone like Brissett covering the big wings during the regular season than make White, Holiday, Tatum or Brown be forced to take it on. & Pritchard (6'2, 6'4 wingspan, 8'0.5 standing reach) is obviously much less situated to handle bigger wings than Brissett (6'7, 7' wingspan, 8'8 standing reach), Stevens (6'6, 6'9 wingspan, 8'5 standing reach), or Walsh (6'7, 7'3 wingspan, 8'11 standing reach).
Having Hauser also negates some of the advantages that Pritchard does provide in terms of floor spacing as Hauser is kind of the rich man's version & the offense will most likely be running through the one of Holiday/White & one of Tatum/Brown on the Court at any given time (or even Porzingis).
Frankly the ideal of Pritchard as ball-distributing point guard with a great shot is largely the problem too. Everyone knows that he presents problems as a defender (you quantified it well, but it is generally assumed). What I think is lost is that he's not a ball-distributing anything. He's a very short shooting guard/wing. He dribbles very well, but he's not a guy who sets up others or can reasonably be expected to get to the rim with any regularity, lacking the shiftiness to create enough space to get shots off in close at this level. He'll serve as ballhandler on Jrue/Derrick nights off, and it won't be too bad.
Little - Holiday/White/Pritchard/Banton/JD
Medium - Tatum/Brown/Hauser/Brissett/Stevens/Walsh/Svi/Scrubb
Big - KP/Horford/Kornet/Gabriel/Queta/Kabengele
Assuming 1 Little, 2 Mediums & 1 Big on the Court at all time (which isn't really safe since they could go 2 little/2 big, I just don't think they should) I think ideally in the regular season I want about 15 minutes per game with a 2nd Little, 3 minutes per game with a 2nd Big, & 30 minutes per game with a 3rd Medium.
(it's silly to both call the category "Little" & put Banton in it, but YOLO...if he can show he can guard wings he can move to the medium group)
Medium - Tatum/Brown/Hauser/Brissett/Stevens/Walsh/Svi/Scrubb
Big - KP/Horford/Kornet/Gabriel/Queta/Kabengele
Assuming 1 Little, 2 Mediums & 1 Big on the Court at all time (which isn't really safe since they could go 2 little/2 big, I just don't think they should) I think ideally in the regular season I want about 15 minutes per game with a 2nd Little, 3 minutes per game with a 2nd Big, & 30 minutes per game with a 3rd Medium.
(it's silly to both call the category "Little" & put Banton in it, but YOLO...if he can show he can guard wings he can move to the medium group)
The players still ribbing Grant Williams is hilarious.
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1709626166779224285
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1709626166779224285
This is fun to look at it, but the issue I have is all of the guys going out were on the 2nd best team in the NBA, while the guys coming in we’re generally on worse teams (except for Jrue). This means the new guys had less win shares to accumulate. This would seem to be a good thing for the Celtics.
Side note: Sort of shocking to see KP with 7.7 given how bad the Wizards were last year.
That'd be nice, but I don't know if rookie Jordan Walsh has much in common with rookie Christian Braun. Braun was 21 as a rookie and was coming off of 3 solid years at Kansas that culminated in him being the second best player on the team that won the NCAA title. Walsh will be 19 as a rookie and just played one year at Arkansas, where he wasn't more than a role player on a team that lost in the sweet 16. I could be wrong but my understanding on Braun that he was someone who might be able to come in and help a good team right away, at the expense of a higher ceiling. Walsh still sounds super raw.
The 3rd/4th big competition in camp is going to be lit!
Cs sign Kylor Kelley to an Exhibit 10 contract. https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/10/3/23901434/boston-celtics-training-camp-kylor-kelley-contract. From the article:
Cs sign Kylor Kelley to an Exhibit 10 contract. https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/10/3/23901434/boston-celtics-training-camp-kylor-kelley-contract. From the article:
Kelley, now 26, played his college ball at Oregon State before going undrafted in the 2020 NBA Draft. He has yet to play in an NBA game but has spent two seasons playing in the G League, with a one-year stint in Europe sandwiched in between.
Last year, the Oregon native suited up in 21 games for the Toronto Raptors’ G League affiliate, Raptors 905. Of those appearances, just five of them were starts. Kelley averaged 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in about 15.3 minutes per game.
The Maine Celtics acquired Kelley last month in a trade with Raptors 905, according to Real GM.
I think Kelley is more likely battling Queta for G league minutes than a rotation role.
I'm not sure exactly what is happening but POBOBS seems like he is stockpiling every developmental 7 footer in the country.
Has to be destined for Maine
I'm 100% in agreement here.
I can prospect hump with the best of them, but Walsh's body seems miles away from moving NBA frontcourt players. Stevens, Brissett & Svi will sop up those physical bench WING minutes (after Hauser). Expect Walsh to ply his defense in the G-League.
Celtic 15
1. Tatum
2. Brown
3. Holiday
4. KP
5. White
6. Horford
7. Hauser
8. PP
9. Kornet
10. Stevens
11. Brissett
12. SviMyk
13. Gabriel
14. Banton
15. Walsh
Two Ways: Queta, Scrubb, JDD
Probably, but with the loss of Rob the Cs are in need of an athletic shot blocker and and that’s exactly who Kelley was at Oregon State.
Here is how his draft profile described him:
“Kelley was the defensive anchor in Corvallis, and attained his otherworldly rim-protection statistics with intuitive timing, the underrated ability to block shots with both hands, and his 7-foot-3 wingspan. For opposing rim attackers, Kelley is a nightmare turned reality. The 22-year-old was the premier shot-blocker of the PAC-12 this season with a 13.3 block percentage; no other player in the conference cracked double digits in this respect. For context, Oneyka Onkongwu of USC was a distant second with a percentage of 9.6.
Kelley stays out of foul trouble by resisting the urge to flail at opposing shot fakes; he’s patient and calculated in his efforts. Providing statistical support to my observations is important, and while he is patrolling the paint, opponents shoot just 38 percent “around the basket” for 0.76 PPP (80th percentile). There are at least several NBA teams in search of vertical rim protection, and given time to develop, Kelley is worth the bet to become just that.
The third and final positive trait to consider when evaluating Kelley is his pure athleticism. At seven feet and 215 pounds, the senior sticks out immediately on tape with the fluid way that he gallops down the basketball court. He’s impressive when putting pressure on the opponent’s transition defense as a rim-runner, seeking easy dunks. He also displays speed and timing in defensive transition, reliably sprinting back to protect the basket, and producing quite a few memorable chase-down blocks this past season for the Beavers. Kelley’s innate athleticism has contributed to his rapid improvement. Despite his age, there is a tangible element of natural basketball instincts mixed with his physical profile that provides reason to be optimistic about his trajectory as a prospect. “
Granted, he hasn’t done much since, so it doesn’t seem too likely he’ll make much of an impact with the Cs. That said, he’s an interesting defensive prospect, with the potential to bring some shotblocking to the bench.
Thank you for this breakout. Looking at this, I think that the biggest need for the team is a 7th/8th rotation player that you can be comfortable with playing in the playoffs.
IMO, that player needs to be a ball handler or a big. I don't know if this means I am unreasonably high on Sam Hauser but I have no issues with him getting minutes in a playoff game or being a key contributor in the regular season. PP I think can definitely get regular season minutes but I have very little faith in him once the playoffs come around.
That Grant TPE and a 2nd or two should be able to get us a 7th/8th man
On defense, yes. On offense, he's not nearly the 3 point shooter that Grant is (career 28% on low volume vs. Grant's 38% - near 40% last 3 years).
Of course - that’s why Grant got $50+mm and Lamar got the min.
Point is - they need someone to fill that role. Hauser will pick up some of Grants minutes but I think Lamar will get a significant amount of run.
Yeah, wasn’t a critique. I think the will be considerable overlap between how Grant was used and how Lamar will probably be used.