2023-24 Celtics

[NickEsasky]

I know we are analytically minded here but if every post game turns into a recitation of record and shooting percentages then there isn’t going to be a whole lot to discuss. 3 pointers are not coin flips. Sometimes you generate a ton of great shots and miss but plenty of other times the percentages reflect the quality of offense they’re running. As said above, they settle into a lot of dribble 3s with no real movement. It’s great when Tatum gets hot and they all fall for a few minutes but it doesn’t get anyone in rhythm and when they aren’t falling for him we don’t have a lot of answers. We have become like the D’Antoni teams winning a lot of games but pointing at shooting percentages when losses occur. They matter but the Celtics still dont do the little things well and their raw volume offensive approach likely will come back to haunt them again in a final 4 scenario as it has the last few years.

Which is why it all comes back to coaching for me. There’s too much talent on this this team for them to not be coached by a perfectionist trying to help them iron out the final flaws in their collective game so they could finally level up. The turnovers are such a laughable and consistent problem for this core and aside from a few media quotes now and then they’ve essentially done nothing to fix it. Shaky free throw shooting and poor late game execution have consistently cost them wins. They have little sense for game momentum unless momentum is defined by making a series of 3s. Tatum has really flashed on the low post isolation this year and it should be a consistent way for them to end opponents runs but instead when the going gets tough they bring him a screen at the top and he dribbles for 10 seconds and they try to execute something from there. He’s super good but he isn’t consistently able to beat men off the dribble to any of his spots on the court so it becomes a very high degree of difficulty operation for them when it really gets tight.

They really need their coach, whomever it is, to get through to them that all the little things matter. That 10 first half turnovers are going to force them to lose games they shouldn’t lose. That the big players they see themselves as execute consistently on both ends down the stretch and suffocate other teams out. I don’t think it’s an effort thing but it’s more that they don’t seem to understand how a more maniacal attention to detail will result in bigger leads that can survive the other teams big run. That you don’t want to leave things to chance that Caleb Martin goes en fuego for 2 weeks and you have an answer for that with high level execution by great players. With their talent really high level consistent execution is more than enough

I just want to call out this great post. The morality play narratives about effort and wanting it more get tiresome but so does stifiling discussion with the "it's a make or miss league" comments too. I think this team often plays hard but has very bad habits that they seemingly cannot break out of no matter who the coach is or who they add or subtract from the roster. Their reliance on the 3 when they really aren't a great 3 point shooting team, the turnovers, the ISO/hero ball at times, and missed free throws. It's frustrating.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I guess the bigger question is are the Celtics a good enough three point shooting team to be a top 3 team in 3PA? No team that averaged > 40 3PA during the regular season has ever won a championship. The Warriors won in 2022 averaging 39 3PA in the regular season but they're the Warriors. I know the league is evolving to more and more threes, but is 36% on 43 3PA a game good enough? I don't know how much I love the Joe Mazzulla fire up threes at all costs offense. It leaves them so susceptible to shooting variance.

With Zinger, the Cs have the best shooting starting five in the league and maybe ever.

Without Zinger, maybe not but they're not going to change their style of play.

Of course, I for one believe that Zinger is pretty key to their championship hopes so I am okay with this (PleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthyPleasestayhealthy)

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I just want to call out this great post. The morality play narratives about effort and wanting it more get tiresome but so does stifiling discussion with the "it's a make or miss league" comments too. I think this team often plays hard but has very bad habits that they seemingly cannot break out of no matter who the coach is or who they add or subtract from the roster. Their reliance on the 3 when they really aren't a great 3 point shooting team, the turnovers, the ISO/hero ball at times, and missed free throws. It's frustrating.

OTOH, just saying "They have bad habits; they need to do something else" isn't that helpful either. I mean the Cs have only lost 5 games this year - you really think this team should be 18-2 or something like if they had "impeccable habits"?

I mean as said above, IND hit 48+% of their 3Ps and BOS did not. 42.1% of IND's 3P made was unassisted. I'll just note that IND's season average is 20.4%, and to further break this down, they are shooting 6.7% on unassisted left corner 3Ps, 0.0% on unassisted left corner 3Ps, and 23.7% on unassisted right corner 3Ps.

So I suspect that IND shot better than their shot profile would typically suggest.

 

[NickEsasky]

OTOH, just saying "They have bad habits; they need to do something else" isn't that helpful either. I mean the Cs have only lost 5 games this year - you really think this team should be 18-2 or something like if they had "impeccable habits"?

I mean as said above, IND hit 48+% of their 3Ps and BOS did not. 42.1% of IND's 3P made was unassisted. I'll just note that IND's season average is 20.4%, and to further break this down, they are shooting 6.7% on unassisted left corner 3Ps, 0.0% on unassisted left corner 3Ps, and 23.7% on unassisted right corner 3Ps.

So I suspect that IND shot better than their shot profile would typically suggest.

Fair response. My worry is not with the regular season at all. Just get a top 4 seed. My concern is witnessing the same issues that have cost them in previous playoff series still appear - especially in a playoff atmosphere. It's not doom and gloom. But some things should be addressed in the regular season that can help them later - like the aforementioned tactic using Tatum more at the elbow and posting up versus pull up 3s.

 

[benhogan]

Just watching other teams around the league it seems like the C's pass the ball so much less than other teams and it often seems like their old bad habits of iso-ing and dribbling to death in crunch time continues to drag them down. It's just so frustrating to see them make magic when they move the ball and get a beautiful look with positive results, yet they'll get brain locked and do dumb shit like have a zero pass offensive possession where they take a much more difficult shot than needed. Jaylen taking a ridiculously dumb side step corner three after they had clawed back into the game jumped out at me. Tatum pounding the ball and taking the obvious three after Halliburton's four point play was another. At this point, it just is who they are and they aren't going to get coached out of it or change on their own. Come playoff time they're going to revert to the same old habits and make winning close games much harder than they need to.

They're 27th in passes made: 263.4 and they're 25th in assists: 25.

15-5 is a great record, but that shouldn't obfuscate this team's 2 worst offensive habits:
1. Turnovers
2. JAYs pound the ball/ISO coma leading to off-the-dribble 3s

When the game gets slowed down to a half-court affair (commonly known as PLAYOFF basketball) small adjustments need to be made. CJM has 60 games to implement his vision. More White running the offense, Hauser (floor-spreading shooting), ball movement, screens, cutting, KP at the top & Jrue bullying opposing PGs at the rim.

Credit to Joe, he has been moving in that direction over the first 20 games. A little bit further to go. Optimistic they will learn from last night's game.

I just want to call out this great post. The morality play narratives about effort and wanting it more get tiresome but so does stifling discussion with the "it's a make or miss league" comments too. I think this team often plays hard but has very bad habits that they seemingly cannot break out of no matter who the coach is or who they add or subtract from the roster. Their reliance on the 3 when they really aren't a great 3 point shooting team, the turnovers, the ISO/hero ball at times, and missed free throws. It's frustrating.

+1
"it's a make or miss league" is the pet peeve of lazy analysis.

Good vs. Great FGA are created.

The most talented team in the league shouldn't turn into 4 potted plants with the JAYs going ISO when the opposing team is fully dug into their half-court defense.

 

[jablo1312]

Celtics forced 6 turnovers last night. As of now, the Celtics have the 2nd best defensive rating in the league (per Cleaning the Glass) but are 28th/30th in defensive turnover rate. They're one of the best teams at preventing offensive rebounds (maybe in part driven by the types of shots they allow), and 28th of 30th in defensive turnover rate (12.5%). It's not an enormous gap from 28th to 1st- Portland is leading at 17.2%, so a gap of ~5% of possessions- but playing a style where you generate low numbers of turnovers will, in theory, make you more susceptible to higher variance shooting nights (as your opponent will get more shots up).

I'd like to look at it more, but the low turnover rate feels like a math based choice that complements the "get up more quality 3 pt attempts" choice on the offensive end. Don't gamble for steals, don't aggressively double to trap PnR's, if guys get by you contest shots at the rim, stay in rotation and close out to semi-open 3 point shooters. You'll allow more shot attempts but fewer open layups and such. And of course rebound well (which they're currently doing on the defensive end).

Haliburton is one one of the best players in the league at balancing high volume with a low number of turnovers, and he went for 10 ast to 0 TO's last night. Another one of those players is Jimmy Butler- last year in the ECF, the Celtics forced turnovers on a paltry 10.8% of Miami possessions (would have been worst in the league). And even though they rebounded well, Miami did enough with those extra shot attempts to win the series. I don't know exactly what the take away here is- a more aggressive approach against elite low turnover players/teams, maybe. But as we have seen for the last 2 years consistently losing the turnover battle (and this team's turnover problem isn't going away with the way the roster is currently constituted) reduces your margin for error on the shooting front.

 

[Auger34]

15-5 is a great record, but that shouldn't obfuscate this team's 2 worst offensive habits:
1. Turnovers
2. JAYs pound the ball/ISO coma leading to off-the-dribble 3s

When the game gets slowed down to a half-court affair (commonly known as PLAYOFF basketball) small adjustments need to be made. CJM has 60 games to implement his vision. More White running the offense, Hauser (floor-spreading shooting), ball movement, screens, cutting, KP at the top & Jrue bullying opposing PGs at the rim.

I want to highlight these two things because I agree 1000000%.

To me, the best version of this team is with Derrick White running the offense and the JAYs catching the ball while moving and making quick decisions.

When this team gets into trouble is when they purposely slow the ball down and the JAYs initiate all offense (to be fair, this is more of a problem with Jaylen than Jayson but I do think it's an issue with Tatum as well).

To me, there's a clear hierarchy on offense now.
Tatum is the #1 option; Brown and Porzingis 2A and 2B, White is the creator/connector, and Jrue is secondary creator/connector (Jrue is the 5th option IMO).

I am fine with using regular season games to have Tatum and Brown initiate offense....but I would make it clear to both of them that if they walk the ball up and pound the ball, that their chance to initiate the offense is done for the game. There's no excuse for this anymore. It's clearly not the team's preferred plan and there needs to be more discipline to do things the correct way. I don't think this team's issue is mental toughness. They always battle back.
I think this team's issue is discipline. They will do the correct thing 70% of the game and then fall back into bad habits for 30% of the game. What's tough is that the JAYs are great tough shot makers but sometimes you have to forgo the tough shot and work harder for an even better one

EDIT: I would also like to add that the White/Porzingis/Brown trio should be stapled together. Those 3 should play with 2 reserves (Hauser and Pritchard for now). Holiday/Tatum/Horford trio should play when subs need to be made.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

"it's a make or miss league" is the pet peeve of lazy analysis.

Good vs. Great FGA are created.

It may be lazy but sometimes it is accurate as well. The Celtics halfcourt defense was excellent most of the game and often deflated by long contested 3-pointers deep into the shot clock. It wasn't like we were emulating the Wizards out there....they were making a lot of 3's that they normally would not make.

The 3Q turnovers were the critical part of this loss but over the course of the game we have to get to the FT line more than 12x against a team who gives up more FTA than any team in the league. The Pacers fed off their home crowd and we have not been a great road team this year. I expected this to be a very close game but these are the areas where the Pacers beat us.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm not lying when I say the team simply doesn't set screens:
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/hustle?dir=D&sort=SCREEN_ASSISTS

Dead last in the league in screen assists by a mile.

Four of the bottom six are: BOS, MIN, OKC, and ORL, all of which are really good teams. 3 of the top 6 include GSW, ATL, and CHA, which are not really good teams. HOU is 4, DEN is 5, and DAL is 6.

I'm not sure screen assists means much.

Teams were 22-9 shooting 45% or better from 3 on 35+ attempts against the Celtics entering tonight all time, including playoffs. Can't win these types of games regularly. And that's just a broader statement about the Association, as all teams were a collective 812-182 when doing so all-time before tonight with playoffs, or a .816 W%.

Thanks for posting this. Teams that shoot 45%+ from 3P are basically 66 win teams. Sounds about right.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Fair response. My worry is not with the regular season at all. Just get a top 4 seed. My concern is witnessing the same issues that have cost them in previous playoff series still appear - especially in a playoff atmosphere. It's not doom and gloom. But some things should be addressed in the regular season that can help them later - like the aforementioned tactic using Tatum more at the elbow and posting up versus pull up 3s.

I guess that we're (and the rest of the Cs world) are going to have this conversation until the Cs win it all. My peeve (generally speaking, not directed at you) is that it's more or less definitional - until the Cs win it all, someone is going to have something to criticize about the Cs coaching/decision-making/execution/effort/etc.

As we all know, the easiest way to win a NBA championship is to have a super-dominant player on the team. More specifically, it's really great to have a super-dominant offensive player on one's team - you know, Giannis, Steph, LBJ, Tim Duncan, Larry, Magic, Kawhi, etc. etc. etc.

JT is a great player. He's top, what, 3(?) / 5(?) / 7(?) in this league. But in my mind, he's a great player because he's so well-rounded, which means he's not the same kind of dominant offensive player as the players mentioned above. And realistically, he won't be considered in that way until he wins a championship (kind of like Dirk).

Is it possible that there's something structural in the way the Cs play/are coached that might be changed to unlock their true potential? I guess. But there are a lot of very savvy basketball minds on that bench, including guys who have been part of championship teams.

I think it's more likely that the Cs before this year were too easy to guard (as mentioned by Brad Stevens) and I'm hoping (along with everyone else) that someone like KP can unlock what needs to be unlocked for them to win it all.

Because if they are healthy and they don't win it all this year, it's going to be an interesting off-season.

 

[tims4wins]

Are Kawhi, Duncan, and Giannis really good examples of offensive stars? I think defense first when I hear those names.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

When this team gets into trouble is when they purposely slow the ball down and the JAYs initiate all offense (to be fair, this is more of a problem with Jaylen than Jayson but I do think it's an issue with Tatum as well).

Just to add to this, Brown has averaged a little over three assists per game over the last three years. Sometime early last month, as I think a bunch of people noticed, he was getting much more active making plays for others (especially, but not exclusively Porzingis). He was getting up 6, 7 assists per game. The past two games he’s had 0.

 

[Auger34]

As we all know, the easiest way to win a NBA championship is to have a super-dominant player on the team. More specifically, it's really great to have a super-dominant offensive player on one's team - you know, Giannis, Steph, LBJ, Tim Duncan, Larry, Magic, Kawhi, etc. etc. etc.

JT is a great player. He's top, what, 3(?) / 5(?) / 7(?) in this league. But in my mind, he's a great player because he's so well-rounded, which means he's not the same kind of dominant offensive player as the players mentioned above. And realistically, he won't be considered in that way until he wins a championship (kind of like Dirk).

Is it possible that there's something structural in the way the Cs play/are coached that might be changed to unlock their true potential? I guess. But there are a lot of very savvy basketball minds on that bench, including guys who have been part of championship teams.

I think it's more likely that the Cs before this year were too easy to guard (as mentioned by Brad Stevens) and I'm hoping (along with everyone else) that someone like KP can unlock what needs to be unlocked for them to win it all.

Because if they are healthy and they don't win it all this year, it's going to be an interesting off-season.

When you say well rounded, do you mean well rounded offensively? Or well rounded as overall players?

Because if it’s well rounded as overall players, I think Giannis/LBJ/Duncan and prime Kawhi are clearly better more well rounded overall players than Tatum.

If it’s well rounded offensively, I think prime LBJ is pretty clearly more well rounded than Tatum too.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

When you say well rounded, do you mean well rounded offensively? Or well rounded as overall players?

Because if it’s well rounded as overall players, I think Giannis/LBJ/Duncan and prime Kawhi are clearly better more well rounded overall players than Tatum.

If it’s well rounded offensively, I think prime LBJ is pretty clearly more well rounded than Tatum too.

I mean I think a lot of JT's value is derived from being very good at a lot of different things, including defense, plus he plays all the time.

But my point was that until he wins a title, people are going to point at flaws in his game and of his team.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Just to add to this, Brown has averaged a little over three assists per game over the last three years. Sometime early last month, as I think a bunch of people noticed, he was getting much more active making plays for others (especially, but not exclusively Porzingis). He was getting up 6, 7 assists per game. The past two games he’s had 0.

Zero is not great but his first two passes of the game where paint touches and kick outs to wide open threes. Both were missed.

Edit: It seems a lot of the Celtics assists are kick out threes so when they shoot poorly they get very few assists.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Matt Ryan doing a nice job with the Pelicans this year. Strus, Nesmith....guys blossom when they get out of Boston it seems.

Interesting observation about three guys whose #1 skill is long-range bombing. Apparently those guys need to get minutes to get in rhythm.

 

[Auger34]

Interesting observation about three guys whose #1 skill is long-range bombing. Apparently those guys need to get minutes to get in rhythm.

I can't speak to Ryan and Strus because they never really saw the floor with the Celtics and I don't watch the Red Claws (other than highlight packages posted here)...

But with Nesmith, it was always pretty clear to me that he needed a defined role, defined minutes and the safety net of not getting buried if he messed up. He was obviously in his own head about fucking up and getting pulled every time he stepped foot on the floor.

He did gain something positive from the experience because he became a hustling maniac whenever he got burn...sprinting everywhere, diving on the floor. I am happy he got traded somewhere where he could gain expereince and get better...I don't think it was ever going to happen for him with this particular Celtics team and brain trust

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Interesting observation about three guys whose #1 skill is long-range bombing. Apparently those guys need to get minutes to get in rhythm.

It's a Catch-22 for backend rotation shooters on playoff teams. The need minutes for the game to slow down to allow for them to get into a comfort zone.....but if the game isn't slowed down for then you can't give them minutes over others. Herm Edwards and all that stuff.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Zero is not great but his first two passes of the game where paint touches and kick outs to wide open threes. Both were missed.

Edit: It seems a lot of the Celtics assists are kick out threes so when they shoot poorly they get very few assists.

Good point. Somebody posted Tatum’s potential assist numbers on 3’s a week or so ago, and they were dreadful. Guys were hitting like 25%. I see the complaint about finding other ways to win when the 3’s aren’t dropping, but sometimes you’re kicking out to open men and they just missed. That’s still a better play, and worth continuing, than either the pull up 3’s or drive into traffic and try (and fail) to get fouled that Tatum/Brown resort too (“fine I’ll do it myself”).

Hauser was the only guy hitting from deep last night. He played 14 minutes in the first half, hit 3/4 from deep and was +16 (yeah yeah). Then he played 8 in the second half.

Incidentally apart from the turnovers, the offense was a tick better overall in the second half. More points, higher fg %. The real difference was they held Indiana to 48 in the first, 74 in the second.

 

[Devizier]

I think a lot of Nesmith's development is just that; normal development. Folks projected him to be a bench role player in the league and that appears to be happening.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Zero is not great but his first two passes of the game where paint touches and kick outs to wide open threes. Both were missed.

Edit: It seems a lot of the Celtics assists are kick out threes so when they shoot poorly they get very few assists.

That's exactly right. The difference between Jaylen getting 5-6 assists or 0-2 assists is basically whether or not Jrue/PP/White make the shots he creates for them.

Those plays a couple weeks back where he was putting up assist numbers were coming as a result of PnR's leading to alley oops with him and KP. No KP, he needs teammates to make shots when he finds them. They didn't last night.

And for all of the talk about ISO potted plant offense, Jaylen took 7 threes last night, 2 came in the final 40 seconds when the team went down 9. He missed a wide open one after an offensive rebound was kicked to him, he missed another that was clearly a heat check, and he missed another when the shot clock was going down and he had the grenade. I counted a grand total of 1 off the dribble 3 that he probably shouldn't have taken. And he went 2-7, so if one of those rattles home, and he goes 3/7 for 43%, and nobody says a word.

The narratives every time the C's lose drive me nuts. Indiana gives up the least amount of 3PA's in the NBA. They dare to teams to go ISO and drive to the hoop. It's exactly how Jaylen and Jayson should be playing against them, and in Jaylen's case, it carried the C's through the first half until he got that third foul. He had 3 turnovers, one of which again came on an offensive foul, that would have been called a flop had it happened in week one. We all love Derrick White, but yesterday, he was 7/16 from the field, 2/9 from 3 and had 8 assists to go with 5 turnovers. Where's the questioning of how he played? Or Jrue, who went 3/9 and 1/5 from deep, mostly open 3's. Or Horford who played over 31 minutes, and managed 2 points on 3 shots and 7 rebounds?

PP's 0/5 and 0/4 from deep last night was more excusable than anything, because if I'm not mistaken, I think 4 of those shots were the result of the shot clock winding down.

 

[RorschachsMask]

FWIW, Jaylen hasn’t really moved the ball the last two games. Only 6 potential assists combined between them, though five were last night. That’s below his numbers per game for the season, which is 6.5, down a fraction from last season, which makes sense with lower usage.

He wasn’t the problem last night though.

 

[Auger34]

That's exactly right. The difference between Jaylen getting 5-6 assists or 0-2 assists is basically whether or not Jrue/PP/White make the shots he creates for them.

Those plays a couple weeks back where he was putting up assist numbers were coming as a result of PnR's leading to alley oops with him and KP. No KP, he needs teammates to make shots when he finds them. They didn't last night.

And for all of the talk about ISO potted plant offense, Jaylen took 7 threes last night, 2 came in the final 40 seconds when the team went down 9. He missed a wide open one after an offensive rebound was kicked to him, he missed another that was clearly a heat check, and he missed another when the shot clock was going down and he had the grenade. I counted a grand total of 1 off the dribble 3 that he probably shouldn't have taken. And he went 2-7, so if one of those rattles home, and he goes 3/7 for 43%, and nobody says a word.

The narratives every time the C's lose drive me nuts. Indiana gives up the least amount of 3PA's in the NBA. They dare to teams to go ISO and drive to the hoop. It's exactly how Jaylen and Jayson should be playing against them, and in Jaylen's case, it carried the C's through the first half until he got that third foul. He had 3 turnovers, one of which again came on an offensive foul, that would have been called a flop had it happened in week one. We all love Derrick White, but yesterday, he was 7/16 from the field, 2/9 from 3 and had 8 assists to go with 5 turnovers. Where's the questioning of how he played? Or Jrue, who went 3/9 and 1/5 from deep, mostly open 3's. Or Horford who played over 31 minutes, and managed 2 points on 3 shots and 7 rebounds?

PP's 0/5 and 0/4 from deep last night was more excusable than anything, because if I'm not mistaken, I think 4 of those shots were the result of the shot clock winding down.

Full disclosure, I didn't even watch the game last night. I was speaking in more general terms.

I've said it here before but I think the Jrue stuff is just because he's new on the team. IMO, he's pretty clearly the 5th option of the starting 5. I like him bringing up the ball and making decisions but I don't think there's much room for him to go 1 on 1 with this particular team.

 

[benhogan]

It may be lazy but sometimes it is accurate as well. The Celtics halfcourt defense was excellent most of the game and often deflated by long contested 3-pointers deep into the shot clock. It wasn't like we were emulating the Wizards out there....they were making a lot of 3's that they normally would not make.

The 3Q turnovers were the critical part of this loss but over the course of the game we have to get to the FT line more than 12x against a team who gives up more FTA than any team in the league. The Pacers fed off their home crowd and we have not been a great road team this year. I expected this to be a very close game but these are the areas where the Pacers beat us.

The Pacers earned that win.

I just think it's misleading to say it's "make or miss" when Haliburton is an excellent 3-point shooter. The home crowd helped. The Celts played hard, no qualms there.

We both agree the Celtics just need to be more efficient offensively, even on the road (which is tough). They will get there with a healthy KP along with CJM making the offensive adjustments over the next 60 games.

It was a great game for Boston to be part of in December, they will grow from it (hopefully).

 

[SteveF]

I think 4 of those shots were the result of the shot clock winding down.

There were a lot of late shot clock pullup 3s. I would say roughly half of the pullup 3s last night were a consequence of late shot clock, which was a consequence of poor offensive process, initiating offense late, or guys just not fucking moving.

I've said this before, but this is an issue with a 5 out offense. It can stagnate, especially if guys aren't willing to consistently expend the energy to repeatedly drive to the rim to take advantage of the space.

Edit: Not having someone consistently roll to the rim, taking advantage of that space (good spacing means someone is attacking the rim, either with the ball or cutting without), has been an issue. This is probably where they've missed Porzingis the most.

 

[chilidawg]

Good point. Somebody posted Tatum’s potential assist numbers on 3’s a week or so ago, and they were dreadful. Guys were hitting like 25%. I see the complaint about finding other ways to win when the 3’s aren’t dropping, but sometimes you’re kicking out to open men and they just missed. That’s still a better play, and worth continuing, than either the pull up 3’s or drive into traffic and try (and fail) to get fouled that Tatum/Brown resort too (“fine I’ll do it myself”).

Hauser was the only guy hitting from deep last night. He played 14 minutes in the first half, hit 3/4 from deep and was +16 (yeah yeah). Then he played 8 in the second half.

Incidentally apart from the turnovers, the offense was a tick better overall in the second half. More points, higher fg %. The real difference was they held Indiana to 48 in the first, 74 in the second.

A big part of Indiana's 2nd half offense was the 10 turnovers we had. Our poor offense led to their good offense.

 

[the moops]

but I don't think there's much room for him to go 1 on 1 with this particular team

I think Jrue is great at attacking mismatches, particularly against smaller guys. I want him attacking that weaker smaller guy all the time.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think Jrue is great at attacking mismatches, particularly against smaller guys. I want him attacking that weaker smaller guy all the time.

Hopefully in time he can find the right balance but right now, and here is my overused phrase again, he is thinking about whether to be aggressive or to defer rather than instinctually knowing when to be aggressive and when to defer. I also want him attacking mismatches more and utilizing his elite low post scoring game.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Hopefully in time he can find the right balance but right now, and here is my overused phrase again, he is thinking about whether to be aggressive or to defer rather than instinctually knowing when to be aggressive and when to defer. I also want him attacking mismatches more and utilizing his elite low post scoring game.

Early in the game, they were posting up Jrue with an entry pass from Brown, and the other 3 Cs cleared out. If Jaylens man dropped down to help on Jrue, he'd kick it to Jaylen for an open drive. If not, Jrue could go to work in the post one on one with a smaller man. It was a great set, and the Cs just went away from it. When Jrue is in there with Jaylen, I like that set.

I also think Joe completely whiffed on this one. Kornet was playing really good minutes, but Joe ran him for like 8-9 consecutive minutes and he started to get gassed. Then he brought Horford in to finish the game, when he had nothing. Given how small Indy plays, Hauser should have been back in the game for Horford with about 4-5 minutes left and I think the game plays out completely differently.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

The narratives every time the C's lose drive me nuts. Indiana gives up the least amount of 3PA's in the NBA. They dare to teams to go ISO and drive to the hoop. It's exactly how Jaylen and Jayson should be playing against them, and in Jaylen's case, it carried the C's through the first half until he got that third foul. He had 3 turnovers, one of which again came on an offensive foul, that would have been called a flop had it happened in week one. We all love Derrick White, but yesterday, he was 7/16 from the field, 2/9 from 3 and had 8 assists to go with 5 turnovers. Where's the questioning of how he played? Or Jrue, who went 3/9 and 1/5 from deep, mostly open 3's. Or Horford who played over 31 minutes, and managed 2 points on 3 shots and 7 rebounds?

For me, the J’s are the focal point of the offense and the two players who will be most important to any championship run, so them figuring out how to play optimal ball for all 40-ish minutes that they're in is more important than the other guys you listed. Not that they're poring over these posts for advice, but it's helpful for me to understand if there are systemic issues with the way those two lead the offense that have caused some of the repeated failures of the past few years close and late. Indiana started clogging the lane a lot more in the second half after welcoming the J's to ISO in the first; it led to a lot more turnovers, and was something that the Celtics/Mazzulla failed to adjust to.

White, Holiday and Al in general play much closer to the ceiling of their talent level. Like, what is one supposed to say about Al - why doesn't he simply be less old?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

For me, the J’s are the focal point of the offense and the two players who will be most important to any championship run, so them figuring out how to play optimal ball for all 40-ish minutes that they're in is more important than the other guys you listed. Not that they're poring over these posts for advice, but it's helpful for me to understand if there are systemic issues with the way those two lead the offense that have caused some of the repeated failures of the past few years close and late. Indiana started clogging the lane a lot more in the second half after welcoming the J's to ISO in the first; it led to a lot more turnovers, and was something that the Celtics/Mazzulla failed to adjust to.

White, Holiday and Al in general play much closer to the ceiling of their talent level. Like, what is one supposed to say about Al - why doesn't he simply be less old?

But you know it wasn't the Jay's turning the ball over right? I believe Jaylen had one turnover in the 2nd half on a bad pass, and Tatum had zero turnovers the whole game until he had one late in the 4th and then the offensive foul super late in the game.

That's what I'm getting at. The Jays adjusted just fine, the rest of the team was throwing the ball away, and missing open shots. Tatum went into ISO mode a few more times than I would have liked, but neither of them were really a problem last night. The problem was Indy couldn't miss, our non Jay's played poorly and Joe forgot he had Hauser in the bench. But mostly, it was because Indy just made everything when they needed to...

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

But you know it wasn't the Jay's turning the ball over right? I believe Jaylen had one turnover in the 2nd half on a bad pass, and Tatum had zero turnovers the whole game until he had one late in the 4th and then the offensive foul super late in the game.

That's what I'm getting at. The Jays adjusted just fine, the rest of the team was throwing the ball away, and missing open shots. Tatum went into ISO mode a few more times than I would have liked, but neither of them were really a problem last night. The problem was Indy couldn't miss, our non Jay's played poorly and Joe forgot he had Hauser in the bench. But mostly, it was because Indy just made everything when they needed to...

Yeah, fair points. Brown still had 0 assists the past two games, on 30 passes last night and 20 passes against Philly. The two games prior to that (also without Porzingis) he had 34 and 42 passes. I don't know where to find potential assist #s, but those would obviously be a better comparison. I don't think it's super controversial to suggest that the team plays better when the ball is moving more, and I was just pointing out that Brown was doing less of that the past two games (compared to the other recent games even when Porzingis is out). Apologies if that drives you nuts.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Yeah, fair points. Brown still had 0 assists the past two games, on 30 passes last night and 20 passes against Philly. The two games prior to that (also without Porzingis) he had 34 and 42 passes. I don't know where to find potential assist #s, but those would obviously be a better comparison. I don't think it's super controversial to suggest that the team plays better when the ball is moving more, and I was just pointing out that Brown was doing less of that the past two games (compared to the other recent games even when Porzingis is out). Apologies if that drives you nuts.

Drives me nuts because there's zero context and shifting goalposts, which is what makes it nothing more than a narrative. If he's consistently getting the ball in his hands with Myles Turner on him at the 3 point line, and an open lane if he goes around him, you want him to pass out of that to guy at the 3 point line, when Indiana is guarding the 3 point line, because it's literally how they play defense?

You could also find the potential assist numbers if you bothered reading about ten posts up from this one. Jaylen had 30 points on 14/23 shooting, 9 boards, 5 potential assists and 3 turnovers (he was stripped once and made a bad pass on another, offensive foul the third), but yeah, it was all unnecessary ISO ball or something.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Drives me nuts because there's zero context and shifting goalposts, which is what makes it nothing more than a narrative. If he's consistently getting the ball in his hands with Myles Turner on him at the 3 point line, and an open lane if he goes around him, you want him to pass out of that to guy at the 3 point line, when Indiana is guarding the 3 point line, because it's literally how they play defense?

Hey speaking of context, Turner was matched up with Brown for 0:44 seconds last night and Brown went 0 for 2 on threes during that time. Here's one. You want him to drive into Hield and Brown? Here's the other.

Obviously I disagree, but I think the term you're wanting to use is false narrative.

@RorschachsMask, where do you find potential assist numbers?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

nm

 

[ifmanis5]

Good news.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1732393282716549245

Kristaps Porzingis on IG: “I will be lined up for the next game.” Celtics starters played 133 minutes together over Boston’s first 10 games (+112 in that span). Only 58 minutes in three appearances since. Celtics = 10-1 with starters healthy this season.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Hey speaking of context, Turner was matched up with Brown for 0:44 seconds last night and Brown went 0 for 2 on threes during that time. Here's one. You want him to drive into Hield and Brown? Here's the other.

Obviously I disagree, but I think the term you're wanting to use is false narrative.

@RorschachsMask, where do you find potential assist numbers?

I was using Myles Turner as an example. If you want that specific game, look what he did when Obi Toppin was trying guard him out there. The Pacers were constantly trying to body him up 35 feet from the hoop, and he made them pay for it regularly.

But we've now moved from you talking about non-existent turnovers to complaining about Jaylen shooting a step back 3 with under 7 seconds on the shot clock (a shot he got off very easily mind you, and makes fairly often) and a missed wide open 3 after the ball went through multiple guys to get to him.

So you don't want Jaylen going ISO, you don't want him shooting 3's, open or otherwise, you don't want him with the ball in his hands because you don't think he can pass. All following a game in which he went 14/23 and scored 30 points.

What is it that you would like him to do on offense? Stand in the corner and let Derrick White and Jrue brick open shots? Let Al Horford take those shots instead?

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Nah man I just wanted to point out that he was passing the ball less the last two games, and sometimes when players pass the ball and the ball doesn’t go in the hoop, they stop passing. Not constructing a narrative, just commenting on something I observed that the numbers support. Thanks for adding context. If you’d like to share why he had 0 assists on 1 potential assist in a win against Philly, I’d like to read that, too.

 

[bgo544]

I think it's worth considering that the small reduction in number of passes may have been simply due to the fact that Brown was getting to the rim with ease, especially in the first half. Which is what we want him to do if the defense is giving him that.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Nah man I just wanted to point out that he was passing the ball less the last two games, and sometimes when players pass the ball and the ball doesn’t go in the hoop, they stop passing. Not constructing a narrative, just commenting on something I observed that the numbers support. Thanks for adding context. If you’d like to share why he had 0 assists on 1 potential assist in a win against Philly, I’d like to read that, too.

If you had made these posts after the Philly game, I wouldn't have pushed back. That said, Tatum got ejected in the Philly game after committing 7 turnovers in 27 minutes, so without him and KP, Embiid/Maxey not playing, the lane, like it was against Indy opens up quite a bit.

I think you're also (and this isn't just you) looking at numbers, and not seeing what really happened in that game.

Here's some early possessions of the game:

Jaylen steal and dunk:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=9&GameID=0022300275&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Brown 1' Running Dunk (2 PTS)

Jaylen drives, kicks to Tatum who kicks to Horford, Horford makes, Tatum gets the assist, Brown gets nothing (bad basketball? ISO?)

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=21&GameID=0022300275&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Horford 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Tatum 1 AST)

Brown fakes a shot, goes back to Tatum, kicks to Holiday, made 3, assist for Tatum, nothing for Brown:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=42&GameID=0022300275&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Holiday 27' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Tatum 2 AST)

Here's one where Tatum plays a two man game with Hauser (that Brown has been excellent at doing with KP) and another assist for Tatum:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=97&GameID=0022300275&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Hauser 28' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Tatum 3 AST)

when he feeds Horford down low, who makes a post move and scores, it's not an assist

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=653&GameID=0022300275&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=Horford 5' Driving Bank Hook Shot (18 PTS)

The reality is the C's are playing with 3 point guards (2 most of the time Brown is on the court) and Tatum who is a regular primary ball handler. Brown simply isn't going to put up regular assist numbers in these situations unless everyone makes their shots when he finds them. But just because he goes without an assist doesn't mean he's playing some wrong brand of hero ball.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

nm x 2

 

[Jimbodandy]

Hey speaking of context, Turner was matched up with Brown for 0:44 seconds last night and Brown went 0 for 2 on threes during that time. Here's one. You want him to drive into Hield and Brown? Here's the other.

Obviously I disagree, but I think the term you're wanting to use is false narrative.

@RorschachsMask, where do you find potential assist numbers?

Wrong opinion, pedantic, SSS cherry picking, and asking someone to do your work for you, all in one post. That's pretty impressive.

You started with how the Js weren't leading the offense and were turning the ball over too much. Then when it was accurately pointed out to you that this was in fact not actually the case, you went to "Jaylen doesn't have enough assists". Then picked a couple of bad possessions over an entire game.

When your top two guys went for 30 and 32 at 13/26 and 14/23 efficiency and turned it over five times total between them in 68 minutes, they weren't the problem, no matter how much you want this to be their fault.

It's an early December game against a good team on the road without one of the best players, and Joe went 9 deep. Sometimes your shots bounce out and theirs bounce in.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I may get annoyed about some losses in the moment, but I take absolutely nothing from the regular season now lol.

Recently, I’ve seen a lot of people complaining (mostly on Twitter) about the lack of driving from the team, but what has it cost them? They’re 15-5, and everybody knows that both Tatum and Jaylen up their drives in the playoffs. I’d rather a little less wear and tear from the regular season, personally.

And in Tatum’s case, his drives+post up combination is basically the same as last season anyways.

 

[radsoxfan]

Last 5 seasons 3 PT% (oldest to newest)

Tatum:
40
39
35
35
36

Brown:
38
40
36
35
34


Brown's drop off happened after his left wrist surgery. Probably not related but you never know.

Tatum of course does enough other things well that his % doesn't hold him back much. Brown's calling card is his scoring, so it would be really nice if he got some of that 3PT efficiency back.

 

[Auger34]

Last 5 seasons 3 PT% (oldest to newest)

Tatum:
40
39
35
35
36

Brown:
38
40
36
35
34


Brown's drop off happened after his left wrist surgery. Probably not related but you never know.

Tatum of course does enough other things well that his % doesn't hold him back much. Brown's calling card is his scoring, so it would be really nice if he got some of that 3PT efficiency back.

They both need to cut the step back 3’s down considerably (particularly Tatum). They are playing completely into the defenses hands with those shots

 

[RorschachsMask]

They both need to cut the step back 3’s down considerably (particularly Tatum). They are playing completely into the defenses hands with those shots

Jaylen’s issue is he’s just fallen off a cliff with catch and shoot threes. He doesn’t take a ton of step backs, but his C&S numbers have absolutely tanked the last four years. It’s the same with his long two’s, so I wonder if there’s just something mechanically wrong.

Overall, he’s at 34.5% over his last 1100 threes. These are his C&S numbers since 20-21

43.1
36.7
33.4
33.3

This year he’s at 36% on C&S so far, but considering the looks he gets, that just isn’t good enough. His deep two’s over the last four years

49%
44%
41%
30%

I think his finishing at the rim and from 3-10 feet corrects upwards, but there’s real reason to be concerned about his jumper, IMO.

With Tatum, his C&S numbers are still elite every season, it’s just about the pull-up for him at this point. He needed that shot up when his body wasn’t ready, and he didn’t understand leveraging on his drives.

Now? Take it if you’re hot, otherwise you just don’t need it anymore lol. He wrecks the drop with it, so I’m fine with pull-ups against those teams. But when he’s playing around out on the wings? Just stop lol.

 

[benhogan]

They both need to cut the step back 3’s down considerably (particularly Tatum). They are playing completely into the defenses hands with those shots

Yep, they are making it hard on themselves. The addition of Jrue/KP & elevation of Hauser means there is plenty of offensive talent around them, no need to settle for step-back off the dribble 3s.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yep, they are making it hard on themselves. The addition of Jrue/KP & elevation of Hauser means there is plenty of offensive talent around them, no need to settle for step-back off the dribble 3s.

Once the offensive set breaks down none of those players offensive skills really matter it's about getting the best look with your own shot creation. Someone said it yesterday but there is a vast difference between Tatum/Jaylen's December approach with the shot clock in single digits and their approach in May when they attack the paint with the dribble more frequently.

 

[benhogan]

Once the offensive set breaks down none of those players offensive skills really matter it's about getting the best look with your own shot creation. Someone said it yesterday but there is a vast difference between Tatum/Jaylen's December approach with the shot clock in single digits and their approach in May when they attack the paint with the dribble more frequently.

That's fair,
Hopefully, we'll see a more aggressive approach attacking the rim in May than the dribble-rama into the stepback 3.

BTW every 14yr old has adopted the Harden step-back 3 as their own (I bartered with my kid that if he didn't take that shot all season, chased rebounds & just shot putbacks I'd give him $100. It worked. Plus the Coach never took him out)