I love angry Jaylen Brown. But is anyone else worried that someone is going to deck him in the face sometime for the way he tries to posterize everyone? Or is that just taken for granted in the NBA that if you get dunked on you get dunked on?
2023-24 Celtics
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1-3 would be fine with Tatum out. But as long as KP is playing, and this version of Jaylen/DWhite show up, I wouldn't bank any losses just yet.
Indeed.
Brown had an end-of-quarter, time winding down ISO play, went up for the shot & PASSED to an open White for a catch-shoot 3. Jaylen's willingness to pass even though he was slamming the King's heads all night is some serious growth.
The C's had a sizeable lead, he could have easily shot but he made the right basketball play. That shit is contagious when your superstars play that way.
Well, when one of your superstars plays that way. The other chucks a 15% 3 whenever he gets the ball with less than 12 seconds on shot clock.
I'll be disappointed by 1-3 because I agree the Celtics can do better. But hard to complain about 1-3 if Tatum misses 3 and plays hurt in one, KP misses at least one, Horford misses 2, etc.
Agree that it would be disappointing, and also agree that it would not move the needle on title chances.
Won't Horford play both upcoming games? Neither is a B2B.
Tatum has always had one little hiccup at the beginning of seasons. Goes into the lab and figures it out.
OTD 3pt selectiveness is his next lesson. He will fix it since betting against him never works out.
Tatum is trying to "shoot" his way out of it, like it's a slump. BUT it's just an inefficient shot option. I don't buy into him needing to shoot 6 Off-the-Dribble 3s a game to diversify his package or "trick" the opponent. Opposing defenses are perfectly happy to take a break from his rim attacks.
JT struggled a few years ago when teams would double him at the top, he would try to dribble out of them & get stripped quite often. Now he tries to draw the double at the TOP, bring defenders away from the basket, and pass out of it. He took what once was a weakness and made it a strength.
Tatum will eventually reduce the OTD 3s by drawing defensive attention with the threat of attacking the rim, and hitting the open teammate instead of opting for so many Harden step-backs.
JT struggled a few years ago when teams would double him at the top, he would try to dribble out of them & get stripped quite often. Now he tries to draw the double at the TOP, bring defenders away from the basket, and pass out of it. He took what once was a weakness and made it a strength.
Tatum will eventually reduce the OTD 3s by drawing defensive attention with the threat of attacking the rim, and hitting the open teammate instead of opting for so many Harden step-backs.
Just to go back to the Ws loss, one of the things that was super irritating listening to EEI was caller after caller lamenting how Tatum and Brown “don’t want the ball” at the end of games and “wasn’t it great when we had Marcus Smart who would take shots at the end of games”. I felt like I was listening to folks in an insane asylum.
Tatum absolutely wants the ball at the end of games. The issue we have is that he, in my opinion, seems to always settle for a step back three and he’s shooting such a poor percentage on that shot. I remember a couple of years ago he hit a game winner against Milwaukee on that play and it seems like it cemented in his mind that is what he should do in that situation.
Yes, Smart also was willing to take shots at the end of games, but he was not the guy I wanted taking them. I just wish the Celtics would look for a more midrange shot in those situations, because I think they have some players that are elite with that weapon.
Tatum absolutely wants the ball at the end of games. The issue we have is that he, in my opinion, seems to always settle for a step back three and he’s shooting such a poor percentage on that shot. I remember a couple of years ago he hit a game winner against Milwaukee on that play and it seems like it cemented in his mind that is what he should do in that situation.
Yes, Smart also was willing to take shots at the end of games, but he was not the guy I wanted taking them. I just wish the Celtics would look for a more midrange shot in those situations, because I think they have some players that are elite with that weapon.
If they're going to go 1-on-1 like that to get the last shot, Jaylen is a better option right now.
Mark Jones on the Sacramento play by play after Derrick White's rainbow three "that had ice on it when it came down!" A+ call.
It's always interesting to hear the perspective of the opposing announcers and the Kings' duo was pretty good. Jones always feels a bit rehearsed but he was looser than his national games and his partner, Kayte Christensen, had some really good X's and O's insights. She'd be a great Doris Burke replacement. (Please!)
It's always interesting to hear the perspective of the opposing announcers and the Kings' duo was pretty good. Jones always feels a bit rehearsed but he was looser than his national games and his partner, Kayte Christensen, had some really good X's and O's insights. She'd be a great Doris Burke replacement. (Please!)
Not in today's NBA. And given Jaylen's standing among the players (VP of player's association), I'd put this at about 0% chance. These are risky plays anyways though, because even clean contests can end badly. Good for him to pull them out of the bag selectively.
It's such a fine line, and obviously dependent on what team you're rooting for, but for sure one of the things I love most about the NBA is that they let the players have personality and don't T them up for celebrations to the crowd. Curry put us to sleep the other night, so it was pretty great to see JB's wave to the crowd last night, even if it was the third quarter. In the last two-three weeks, it feels a little like Jaylen has leveled up and knows it and is feeling himself more than usual. So fun to watch.
Nothing good comes from listening to sports talk radio. The hosts are just riling up callers, and the callers are morons.
I'm not worried, and I'd say the latter. First of all nobody in the NBA goes beyond a shove that means "hey man that's not cool", with like one exception. Second, the amount of energy he needs to summon to be that much faster and more explosive than NBA players is monstrous, if he goes a little Incredible Hulk I just think that's part of the package. As long as he's not staring down an opponent or taunting, I think he's in the clear. The days of "hard foul to send a message" are kinda gone.
McGee rejected him once at the rim too. It's all part of the game, you win some you lose some, and players seem to respect that.
Thank God they're saying that, if they were saying the team is awesome and Tatum is a serious MVP candidate and that we needed tweaks along the lines lovegtm has proposed, then I'd really be worried. As long as what they're saying is diametrically opposed to common sense and visible reality, all is as-expected and right with the world.
Lol which tweaks have I proposed? Letting Jaylen take some end of game shots? Doesn't seem super radical.
That and Tatum's shot selection. Solid, rational points backed up by close observation of the game and an understanding of its stats. So if WEEI was saying the same thing, instead of "don't we miss Marcus", I'd have to be far more skeptical.
He was agreeing with you, back-handedly.
Interesting that the Kings shot over 47% from 3 at volume and still lost by 25. We absolutely destroyed them in transition: 30-6 on fast break points.
Edit: Celtics now 5-1 when allowing teams to shoot 43% of better from 3. Last year, NBA teams lost ~75% of such games.
Edit2: Also, C's have won 5 straight versus SAC. Average margin of victory: 29.8. Holy smokes.
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Yeah, it feels like you'd have to be absolutely hot from 3 -and- the Celtics go cold from 3 in order to beat them, and even then that's still a close proposition most of the time, especially if Porzingis isn't playing.
That was my thought at first blush, but out of the 6 losses only one team shot well over 40% (Pacers 19-40)
On the whole, those six opponents shot 37.2% (85-228) from 3 while the Celtics shot 29.5% (78-264).
The Celtics have won every game they have shot over 32% from 3 this season.
My take: The Celtics need to work for more catch & shoot 3s, paint-touch 3s, Corner3s, and take less Off-the-Dribble 3s. Not all 3s are created equal. Their defense has been fine, and HOT 3pt shooting only created 1 loss.
Shooting variance is influenced by approach/process. It's a Make or Miss League is lazy analysis used by NBA talking heads.
If Draymond Green hasn't taken a hard foul for his antics, I find it incredibly hard to believe that Jaylen would get decked for his. He's pretty tame compared to the overall NBA
Has anybody decked any other big dunkers in recent memory? I can’t think of any. And nobody is going to deck him for doing the same thing every player does after a big dunk or block.
What was Steph's approach/process against Boston as opposed to that in the close losses vs the Clippers and Suns last week when he shot 3-13 and 4-15 behind the arc ? Asking for a friend.
Was thinking if he made his average in these 3 games each result is different but I'll wait and listen.
Right, and this is also known as "being a really f--ing good team". It's why the NBA playoffs are best of seven: you even out the shooting variance most of the time, except when Caleb Martin becomes a sex slave for Satan for a week.
Yup, people really really dislike variance.
I, on the other hand, celebrate my effort and morality whenever my pair of 2s wins all in against pocket aces.
Anything inside the halfcourt is the hot zone for StephWhat was Steph's approach/process against Boston as opposed to that in the close losses vs the Clippers and Suns last week when he shot 3-13 and 4-15 behind the arc ? Asking for a friend.
Was thinking if he made his average in these 3 games each result is different but I'll wait and listen.
I'm not bothered with Steph or the Warriors 3pt variance the other night. 40% (20/50) isn't crazy hot for the Ws.
I mostly care about the Celtics process.
Celtics shoot on average 37.4% (16/43 per game) from 3, here is the breakdown:
1. Catch-Shoot 3s 40%
2. Pullup 3s 32.2%
The Celtics were 2/16 from Pullup 3s against the Warriors.
In tight games working for Catch-Shoot 3s would be a more efficient approach.
NBA games are played on the edges. That's a pretty large difference in shooting % when such a large volume of attempts are coming from 3. Note: the Celtics lead the NBA in 3pt FGA per game
https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/shots-dash
What were their pull up 3 numbers last night?Anything inside the halfcourt is the hot zone for Steph
I'm not bothered with Steph or the Warriors 3pt variance the other night. 40% (20/50) isn't crazy hot for the Ws.
I mostly care about the Celtics process.
Celtics shoot on average 37.4% (16/43 per game) from 3, here is the breakdown:
1. Catch-Shoot 3s 40%
2. Pullup 3s 32.2%
The Celtics were 2/16 from Pullup 3s against the Warriors.
In tight games working for Catch-Shoot 3s would be a more efficient approach.
NBA games are played on the edges. That's a pretty large difference in shooting % when such a large volume of attempts are coming from 3. Note: the Celtics lead the NBA in 3pt FGA per game
https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/shots-dash
Glad you asked
1. Catch & Shoot 3s 16/26 61.5%
2. Pullup 3s 6/16 37.5%
Then again our biggest ISO Pullup 3 offender sat last night
There was a bit of a scrum after the Zion windmill, but that's a different situation, obviously.
Probably the closest recent thing was Zach Collins going after Michael Porter Jr. after Porter dunked on his head last spring:
https://sports.yahoo.com/nuggets-f-michael-porter-jr-spurs-c-zach-collins-ejected-after-fight-following-dunk-030320232.html
That's the sort of player I could see going after JB, but JB is usually good about not making it personal and playing to the crowd. There are a lot of dunkers in the league, but not many who try to throw it down the way Brown does.
It is interesting that he got blocked at the rim on back to back nights. Just random, of course, but interesting.
I'm super glad to see the high numbers of dunks from Brown.
Yeah it's excellent to see. His dunk rate is now up and over 9%, which is terrific for a high volume perimeter scorer. As a comparison, prime Lebron (2012-2017) had a dunk rate of 9.5% (and under 9% for every other year of his career). Among the top 25 leaders in ppg this year, the only players averaging a higher dunk rate are Anthony Davis and Giannis, with Anthony Edwards just a few percentage points back. Absolutely love his aggressiveness.
Aren't pull up 3's always going to be a much lower pct due to the fact that many are created to get a shot off against the clock while C&S is the ideal rhythm look? Of course 61 is high but 37 seems high too for this type of shot and what is included in this category. Without knowing what these number are I'd guess league wide they are about 50% and 30%? Close?
With the short turnaround jumpers where he explodes into the air, the rim rattling dunks, and the intense forays to the rim, JB is looking like a 21st-century Dominique, with a little less lift, and a little more range. Those one arm hard dunks in traffic off a two foot jump are very Dominique like
He has always reminded me of Dominique. The fall-aways too. The human highlight film also seemed like a guy sometimes that was moving and everyone else was standing still.
JB with the extended hammer dunk off two feet where he holds the rim with one hand is so ‘Nique
I haven't looked league-wide, and never gave it much thought until Tatum made it a big part of his bag the last few seasons. Some of the end-of-clock problems are self-induced, especially with the JAYs. In the past, JT pull-up could be explained away by sharing the court with Smart & TL. BUT now that he is playing with KP, Jrue, Hauser, PP, etc he should be comfortable sharing the ball with the potential of the ball returning for a Tatum C&S (42%).
ALSO don't buy Tatum has to take ISO pull-up 3s in the same volume as KD, Steph, & Harden to still be an elite scorer.
The Celtic's 40%/32% spread is similar to last season and it's on good volume.
A big benefit of Boston going 5-wide is to put opponents in rotation with drive & kick and having 5 players take C&S 3s.
Here is an Athletic article on Tatum's Pull-up 3pt shooting issues from last season:
https://theathletic.com/4262352/2023/03/01/jayson-tatum-jumper-celtics/
Tatum has knocked down just 28.8 percent of his pull-up 3-point attempts this season. Considering he has tried nearly five such shots per game, that’s a significant blemish that has limited him to the worst 3-point percentage of his career, not just a blip on his stat line. Tatum has been money on catch-and-shoot opportunities, but his accuracy has fallen off after he puts the ball on the floor. Among all 30 players averaging at least three pull-up 3-point attempts per game, Tatum is the only one shooting worse than 30 percent on such tries. Though he has eliminated many of his off-the-dribble midrange jumpers (hooray for analytics!), he is also shooting a career-low 34.4 percent on pull-up 2-point attempts this season. Combining 2s and 3s, he has hit just 30.5 percent of pull-up attempts this season, according to the league’s tracking data.
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Keep in mind there's a selection effect here. The pool of players even allowed to take a significant number of pullup 3s is relatively small and tend to be some of the best ball handlers/shooters in the NBA.
If anyone who shoots 3s were taking those shots, I imagine the average number would be much lower than 34%.
There's no relationship between number of pull-up threes taken and % made. If you take out the 13 guys who have taken >100 3PA, the average goes down to 33%. Incidentally, everybody can pick out Tatum on this chart. He's the only one with >60 attempts shooting <30%. He's taken 152.
Wow. That's surprising. Awesome chart btw. Thanks for taking the time and giving me the information. I find it very helpful when I am shown to be wrong (genuinely!).
