2023 LDS Game/Discussion Thread

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I thought that Kike was at fault there but that was a slow roller and he had to gather and make a perfect throw across his body.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Maybe should have eaten it or maybe thrown behind the runner at third?
He ain't a SS. We are witnessing the downside of having a Betts and Freeman in that you have to piece together a workable roster out of MLB retreads. Fortunately for them/their fans, the Dodgers seem to have the best in rejuvenating technology.
 

DeadlySplitter

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The Dodgers may have eeked this one out with a full bullpen game, but obviously that's not sustainable even in a 5 game series with 3 offdays, so i understand why they tried Bobby Miller.
 

RobertS975

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As a Red Sox fan, I had to find things to root for. So I decided that I would like to see a WS between Torey Lovullo and Rocco Baldelli. So far, so good.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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The Dodgers have won 100+ games in four of the last five years, and have just the one Covid World Series to show for it. Looking at a second straight Division Series exit to a division rival.

Like the Rays, they haven’t exactly been turning all this regular season success into multiple championships.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
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There were a lot of predictions that the Dodgers were going to struggle this year with their rotation issues and lack of depth in the lineup. I think it's more surprising that they won 100 games again than that they're down in the playoffs. You can blame Dave Roberts if you want, but he doesn't have many cards to play right now.
 

Remagellan

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Gosh, have you seen the list of their injured and disgraced pitchers? They got nuttin'.
Exactly. When every choice is bad, there really are no bad decisions, just decisions.

They are basically the Niners in last year's championship game after Purdy was injured, except with starting pitchers instead of QBs. No matter how talented the rest of the team is, it's hard to compete when that important a position is depleted.
 

bosockboy

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Exactly. When every choice is bad, there really are no bad decisions, just decisions.

They are basically the Niners in last year's championship game after Purdy was injured, except with starting pitchers instead of QBs. No matter how talented the rest of the team is, it's hard to compete when that important a position is depleted.
They aren’t hitting either though. Not sure it would matter.
 

jon abbey

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I think Austin Riley had the best combo of an offensive and defensive play in consecutive half-innings in MLB history there, the awareness and execution to make that play at first to double up Harper was incredible.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think Austin Riley had the best combo of an offensive and defensive play in consecutive half-innings in MLB history there, the awareness and execution to make that play at first to double up Harper was incredible.
It was the type of play that shows how being fundamentally sound can pay off in critical moments ... which made it painful for Red Sox fans to see.
The home run was fascinating as well. Seeing the swing in slo-mo, with the one-hand finish, was remarkable.
 

LogansDad

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It was the type of play that shows how being fundamentally sound can pay off in critical moments ... which made it painful for Red Sox fans to see.
The home run was fascinating as well. Seeing the swing in slo-mo, with the one-hand finish, was remarkable.
Not a chance in any of the 7 layers of hell that Devers makes that play.
 

loshjott

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It was the type of play that shows how being fundamentally sound can pay off in critical moments ... which made it painful for Red Sox fans to see.
The home run was fascinating as well. Seeing the swing in slo-mo, with the one-hand finish, was remarkable.
It was a great play, no doubt. And super fun to watch. But if Riley doesn't make that play, or if Harper is smarter on the bases, there's two outs with Harper on first and Stott coming up. Still long odds given Stott's 2023 numbers of 329 OBP and 419 SLG. Though his four 2023 postseason games have been slightly ahead of that.
 

jezza1918

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Just read it's the first double play involving an outfielder to end a postseason game. If the Phillies don't advance, Harper is going to have nightmares about that play all offseason.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Just read it's the first double play involving an outfielder to end a postseason game. If the Phillies don't advance, Harper is going to have nightmares about that play all offseason.
I feel like the criticism has gone too far. They did a whole 15 minutes on it after the second game last night.

The reward for what he did is scoring the tying run if the ball is not caught, and also requiring a really good play for the double play. How many times have we seen runners stranded at third base this post-season? If he holds, doesn't score, and the Braves get two outs, he's criticized for a bad read.

Conversely, the downside of what he did is being way overstated. The run expectancy for first base, two outs, is very low. And even if they tie the game, they have to navigate the bottom of the ninth and then extras. Their win percentage if he had held or gotten back to first was exceptionally low. Is a slightly more than 5 percent chance better than zero percent? Of course. But that's what we're talking about here. The pundits were killing the guy for not taking the choice that preserves a 6 percent win probability. For the reward of tying the game and not getting potentially stranded on third if the ball was not caught.

People act like first base on the road with two outs is some position worth protecting at all cost and taking no risk. It's not. It's almost always a loss.

72307
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I don’t think it was a bad play, the problem was he fell down getting back. I think he has to score there if the ball’s not caught and he’s not super fast so I agree with being aggressive.
 

jezza1918

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I feel like the criticism has gone too far. They did a whole 15 minutes on it after the second game last night.

The reward for what he did is scoring the tying run if the ball is not caught, and also requiring a really good play for the double play. How many times have we seen runners stranded at third base this post-season? If he holds, doesn't score, and the Braves get two outs, he's criticized for a bad read.

Conversely, the downside of what he did is being way overstated. The run expectancy for first base, two outs, is very low. And even if they tie the game, they have to navigate the bottom of the ninth and then extras. Their win percentage if he had held or gotten back to first was exceptionally low. Is a slightly more than 5 percent chance better than zero percent? Of course. But that's what we're talking about here. The pundits were killing the guy for not taking the choice that preserves a 6 percent win probability. For the reward of tying the game and not getting potentially stranded on third if the ball was not caught.

People act like first base on the road with two outs is some position worth protecting at all cost and taking no risk. It's not. It's almost always a loss.

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That's an awesome break down...and after reading it I no longer think Harper made a boneheaded play. That said - I still think he's going to have a lot of nightmares about it if they dont advance.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I really like Joe Posnanki's step-by-step coverage of the last play on his (paywalled) blog, especially his breakdown of the catch:

Look at how Statcast™ breaks down an outfield jump into three components:
  1. Reaction. This is how much ground the outfielder covers in the first 1.5 seconds of the play. Does the outfielder read the ball off the bat correctly? Does the outfielder take an instant to process before moving? This basically measures the first step of the outfielder.
  2. Burst. This is the ground the outfielder covers in the SECOND 1.5 seconds, and this is where Michael Harris II really shines. This measures acceleration once the outfielder is moving toward the ball.
  3. Route. This measures the direction the outfielder has run vs. the CORRECT direction. Interestingly, some of the game’s least effective defensive outfielders run really good routes because, while their reaction times and acceleration are subpar, they do generally go in the right direction. Kyle Schwarber, for example, has the lowest reaction and burst times in baseball, but he runs very direct routes.
There is poetry in all this, poetry in the science of chasing down a fly ball. When this ball was hit, Harris was standing 92 feet away from where the ball would need to be caught. He had 5.4 seconds to get there. That’s a tough one. Balls like that turn into hits more than half the time.

Harris’ first reaction was to take a slightly shallower angle than was required, but that was OK, his reaction time was quite incredible, and, as mentioned, that is much more important than the route itself. He was +2.9 feet on the reaction, meaning he got an extra step over the average outfielder because he so quickly moved on the ball.
Next came the burst, his specialty. Harris corrected his angle and was quickly up to full speed as he headed toward the wall. He gained 3.3 feet on the burst, which is pretty otherworldly stuff; that means he gained ANOTHER full step on the average outfielder because he accelerated so quickly.
The great outfielders, like great sprinters, run so smoothly; you don’t see any undue effort or strain; everything is under control. Harris seemed to know exactly how things would turn out.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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That's an awesome break down...and after reading it I no longer think Harper made a boneheaded play. That said - I still think he's going to have a lot of nightmares about it if they dont advance.
No doubt. It's rarely one thing when you have a tough loss, but the Bartman/Buckner principle is that these things kind of crystalize into a single culprit. Failure to tack on on the road and bullpen failure are the story of the game, but when you end the game in such spectacular fashion, it's easy to forget those things.