2023 QB Carousel

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
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Winston is likely out in NO now that they have Carr. I'm sure there are some cap savings/dead money for the Saints but haven't looked up his contract cap situation. I'd guess his structure is a post June 1 cut saves the most but that is a long way away with the new league year starting soon and the draft 6 weeks away.
 

Cellar-Door

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So the first domino falls (after Brady retiring at least):

Saints: Carr

What's left?
Jimmy G
Rodgers
Lamar
Tannehill
Geno
Daniel Jones

My wild guesses without much research and will definitely be very wrong:
Jimmy G (Jets)
Rodgers (retires)
Lamar (Falcons)
Tannehill (Bucs)
Geno (Franchise tag -- Seahawks)
Jones (re-signs Giants)

Who am I missing? Who needs qbs?
Raiders, Panthers, Colts, Commanders, Texans, Ravens since you have them losing Lamar, possibly Titans, Rams, Steelers, Dolphins,
 

DanoooME

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Geno (Franchise tag -- Seahawks)
Just about a zero chance of this happening. They only have $24 million in cap space now and very few players to create space with. And Pete & John are generally reluctant to kick the can down the road for a player now. And using the tag pretty much prevents the team from improving the defense and other weaknesses via FA.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Just about a zero chance of this happening. They only have $24 million in cap space now and very few players to create space with. And Pete & John are generally reluctant to kick the can down the road for a player now. And using the tag pretty much prevents the team from improving the defense and other weaknesses via FA.
Good info. Do you think they let him go or are we talking bringing him back on a smaller deal? That early first round pick could be for a QB.
 

DanoooME

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Good info. Do you think they let him go or are we talking bringing him back on a smaller deal? That early first round pick could be for a QB.
Geno is probably not going to take a discount per his agent. So I think someone pays more money for him elsewhere. There just isn't much of a mid-tier for QBs and Seattle isn't the place to pay that price for that level of QB.

My personal opinion is that it's less than 50/50 that they pick a QB with #5. Pete and John aren't taking a QB unless they LOVE him.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Only 3 years on Geno is a pretty good job on Seattle's side, I bet it's cuttable after 2 if he pumpkins again.
 

Cellar-Door

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Would love to see the details, it's a weird number.
Low for a starting QB, high for a 1 year vet bridge QB. It's basically in the Brady zone.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1632883097195741184


$52M in year 1, though Schefter is quoting Schultz who said "up to $52M" which could mean incentives.

My guess is this is basically a 2 year deal they can get out after 1 at $50M or so if he's bad. $52M is probably incentives, my guess is 25-40M guaranteed.
 

DanoooME

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Would love to see the details, it's a weird number.
Low for a starting QB, high for a 1 year vet bridge QB. It's basically in the Brady zone.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1632883097195741184


$52M in year 1, though Schefter is quoting Schultz who said "up to $52M" which could mean incentives.

My guess is this is basically a 2 year deal they can get out after 1 at $50M or so if he's bad. $52M is probably incentives, my guess is 25-40M guaranteed.
It could be a small base salary, a large signing bonus, some incentives and roster bonuses mixed in. And we don't know anything yet about void years, etc.
 

Justthetippett

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At this rate by 2025 Mac is going to get more than Mahomes.
That's horrifying, but it's also really likely Mahomes agent will renegotiate to keep him at the top of the market on paper. The flimsiness of NFL contracts can cut both ways.

The market also has to correct for this. Kirk Cousins getting paid is one thing, but once all the mediocre guys ask for big money something has to give. Either vets on short deals (like 2022 Geno) or rookies with top players around them (Purdy) will check this.
 

rodderick

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Geno looked good last year, but also benefitted from incredible turnover luck. I think this contract is fine for him, but in all likelihood the Seahawks will be looking for their QB of the future next year.
 

Van Everyman

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It’s also essence a one-year deal which, if they aren’t making a SB run and don’t need gobs of payroll flexibility, is just fine.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It’s also essence a one-year deal which, if they aren’t making a SB run and don’t need gobs of payroll flexibility, is just fine.
I'm interested to see how they get this under the cap. They had $23m roughly in cap room. There's always a way to get there but the structure of this thing must load a lot of it into next year unless there's a significant amount of restructuring about to occur.
 

Kremlin Watcher

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Can someone help me with the Derek Carr love-fest? I just don't get how he is celebrated as such a great QB when he hasn't really done anything. It's not like he will make the difference for the Saints to even make the playoffs. MLB pitcher and NFL QB - greatest lottery tickets ever.
 

luckiestman

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Can someone help me with the Derek Carr love-fest? I just don't get how he is celebrated as such a great QB when he hasn't really done anything. It's not like he will make the difference for the Saints to even make the playoffs. MLB pitcher and NFL QB - greatest lottery tickets ever.
I don’t think he is celebrated. He is a good player that on the right team might be able to win.
 

Cellar-Door

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Can someone help me with the Derek Carr love-fest? I just don't get how he is celebrated as such a great QB when he hasn't really done anything. It's not like he will make the difference for the Saints to even make the playoffs. MLB pitcher and NFL QB - greatest lottery tickets ever.
I mean, he isn;t? He's generally thought of as an solidly average NFL QB. He's had some good years, he's had some mediocre years, he's not a JAG, but he's not a star.
 

Justthetippett

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Richardson throws a beautiful deep ball in NFL combine conditions.
If you are a team mired in mediocrity (or worse), why wouldn't you buy the Richardson lottery ticket? Not saying Seattle falls into that category but the rest of the teams (IND, LV, CAR, ATL) certainly do. If you actually want to go out and beat the Mahomes of the world, you go out and get this guy and then hire the right staff to maximize his chances of success.
 

BaseballJones

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If you are a team mired in mediocrity (or worse), why wouldn't you buy the Richardson lottery ticket? Not saying Seattle falls into that category but the rest of the teams (IND, LV, CAR, ATL) certainly do. If you actually want to go out and beat the Mahomes of the world, you go out and get this guy and then hire the right staff to maximize his chances of success.
Probably, yes. He's got off the charts athleticism and a big-time arm. That's the kind of guy that if he turns out to be great, you say, oh man how did we NOT take a chance on that guy? But if he turns out to be bad, it's not like those red flags weren't flying high too. Because they are.

Interesting player, I'll say that.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Can someone help me with the Derek Carr love-fest? I just don't get how he is celebrated as such a great QB when he hasn't really done anything. It's not like he will make the difference for the Saints to even make the playoffs. MLB pitcher and NFL QB - greatest lottery tickets ever.
He isn’t, but in that division, absent someone trading for Aaron Rodgers or a Tom Brady return, he is the best QB for probably the next two years. Right now, the QB rooms look like:

Atl-Desmond Ritter or ?
Carolina-the Darnold/Corral/PJ Walker pupu platter
TB-I dont even know. Is it Blaine Gabbert along with Kyle Trask?

Even if those teams draft Young/Stroud/Levis, they are going to take time to develop.
 

Cellar-Door

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Richardson + DK on the same field is just an absurd pairing of athletic freaks. I can't think of anything remotely comparable off the top of my head.
Randy Moss and Dante Culpepper comes to mind,
Dante was the most athletic QB ever in 1999, and kept it until Cam... he's still 3rd all-time in RAS for a QB
Moss was Moss
 

Shelterdog

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Too bad those conditions don't exist in the real NFL. I could look good in those conditions.
I'm clearly no good at NFL draft stuff because I look at the top prospects and I see Stroud being maybe really good, kind of a Matt ryan with some athleticism, Bryce being a mangled pile of shattered limbs by the end of his second year, and Levis and Richardson being essentially Christian Hackenberg 2.0 and Logan Thomas 2.0 respectively. "They couldn't get on the field much in college and weren't accurate or winners when they did but man they look dope with no defense" is a strange thing to key on.
 

luckiestman

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I'm clearly no good at NFL draft stuff because I look at the top prospects and I see Stroud being maybe really good, kind of a Matt ryan with some athleticism, Bryce being a mangled pile of shattered limbs by the end of his second year, and Levis and Richardson being essentially Christian Hackenberg 2.0 and Logan Thomas 2.0 respectively. "They couldn't get on the field much in college and weren't accurate or winners when they did but man they look dope with no defense" is a strange thing to key on.
I don’t watch that much college ball but I like Stroud the most. I would trade Fields and draft him if I were running the Bears.
 

Shelterdog

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I don’t watch that much college ball but I like Stroud the most. I would trade Fields and draft him if I were running the Bears.
Ohio State quarterbacks haven't done well but "super accurate winner" is a good start for a QB evaluation.

To put a little more substance on it QB is a position where very, very few good pros weren't crazy productive in college and starters from very early in their careers. Joe Burrow is the only guy who comes to mind of recent strong QBs.
 

ManicCompression

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Levis and Richardson being essentially Christian Hackenberg 2.0 and Logan Thomas 2.0 respectively. "They couldn't get on the field much in college and weren't accurate or winners when they did but man they look dope with no defense" is a strange thing to key on.
The difference is that Christian Hackenberg played with second round receiver Allen Robinson, who went on to become a good NFL player, while Richardson is playing with no NFL receivers and Levis looked good when he had one (Wandale Robinson).

Sure, CJ Stroud is awesome... but so are JSN, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave and the NFL caliber offensive line at OSU. Quite possible AR or WL would look nearly as good playing with such talent around them, and Stroud would look just as bad playing at UF or UK. Most games, teams with a talent advantage like Alabama or OSU might as well be playing against no defense.
 

DanoooME

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He throws a good deep ball in game conditions as well, his accuracy is really bad short/intermediate, but it's fine deep.
Well, if that's his best attribute besides his athleticism, he's going to be a flop unless someone really works on him. I watched the Georgia tape (which is more like an NFL defense) and he was all over the place, his decision making was poor, he has no touch short/medium at all. I mean he even was off on a pop pass. He did show some leadership and toughness, great athleticism and a nice arm, but he really needs to work on his game. And I just don't see the value there to pick him at #5. Maybe #20. If my choice is Stetson Bennett in the 5th round or Richardson at #5, I take Bennett all day long.
 

Cellar-Door

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My #1 Draft take is "he's a winner" is the worst way to evaluate college QBs.
The most successful college QBs in terms of wins are almost always guys who don't have NFL skillsets.
 

BaseballJones

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Well, if that's his best attribute besides his athleticism, he's going to be a flop unless someone really works on him. I watched the Georgia tape (which is more like an NFL defense) and he was all over the place, his decision making was poor, he has no touch short/medium at all. I mean he even was off on a pop pass. He did show some leadership and toughness, great athleticism and a nice arm, but he really needs to work on his game. And I just don't see the value there to pick him at #5. Maybe #20. If my choice is Stetson Bennett in the 5th round or Richardson at #5, I take Bennett all day long.
If Bennett is available in round 4 when the Pats' pick comes up....do you take him?
 

DanoooME

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I don’t watch that much college ball but I like Stroud the most. I would trade Fields and draft him if I were running the Bears.
To me, it's Young by a mile over Stroud, then a yawning chasm to Levis and Richardson. I don't think Levis and Richardson should be first round picks personally. Are they really any better than Pickett, Ridder and Willis? All of them were being hyped by the media as high first round picks and they ended up as a late 1st and 2 3rds. This shit happens with the media every year. And yet the audience eats it up every year.
 

ManicCompression

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I don't think Levis and Richardson should be first round picks personally.
Curious to know why this is the case - if either of these guys even have a 20% chance of being above average, that will do more for your franchise than most other mid to late first round picks