2023 Starting Rotation

[RS2004foreever]

Hard to believe how different the rotation looks this morning than it did three weeks ago. Sale looked REALLY good last night. The Sox clearly have figured something out with the opener + Pivettta.
So now the rotation is:
Sale
Belllo
Paxton
Crawford
Opener + Pivettta.
No idea if Houck or Whitlock are going to start again, but this looks at least serviceable.

 

[beautokyo]

Hard to believe how different the rotation looks this morning than it did three weeks ago. Sale looked REALLY good last night. The Sox clearly have figured something out with the opener + Pivettta.
So now the rotation is:
Sale
Belllo
Paxton
Crawford
Opener + Pivettta.
No idea if Houck or Whitlock are going to start again, but this looks at least serviceable.

I'd like to see Houck go back to closer duties on days Jansen can't go.

 

[jmcc5400]

I'd like to see Houck go back to closer duties on days Jansen can't go.

Bello
Paxton
Crawford
Sale
* Pivetta (de facto starter)

Whitlock
Houck
Winckowski
Murphy
Schreiber
Bernardino
Martin
Jansen

That’s a good staff. I’d look for ways to weaponize Houck in the pen against RHH stretches.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I’d just rather start Pivetta than do the one inning opener thing. With 4 guys behind him that should all be able to throw 3 innings (Murphy, Houck and Whitlock) it’ll give you the option to yank Nick at the earliest sign of trouble and keep Bernardissimo as a late innings weapon against LHH.
But yeah- hot damn !!!!! If that’s the Sale we get back for the stretch- and can sneak into the playoffs- it’s a dangerous team

 

[bosockboy]

Bello
Paxton
Crawford
Sale
* Pivetta (de facto starter)

Whitlock
Houck
Winckowski
Murphy
Schreiber
Bernardino
Martin
Jansen

That’s a good staff. I’d look for ways to weaponize Houck in the pen against RHH stretches.

Just get in. That staff can be weaponized in a short series.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Could Whitlock be the opener + Pivetta? He goes 2-4 innings then turns it over to Pivetta? I haven't seen the numbers on Whitlock's first go through a lineup vs his second look.

 

[JM3]

Could Whitlock be the opener + Pivetta? He goes 2-4 innings then turns it over to Pivetta? I haven't seen the numbers on Whitlock's first go through a lineup vs his second look.

If we're going with someone before Pivetta, it should be a lefty.

Murphy/Bernardino/Joely if he comes back.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

FWIW, Pivetta actually started his last game and he's scheduled to start again on Tuesday.

 

[PapnMillsy]

Sure he does, albeit unlikely but it's technically possible. If he can't give the Redsox 16 more innings he would tick above Strasberg's dollar/inning amount.
If Sale needs TJ2 before his 4th start this year that could very well put him there.

DeGrom though, yes that will likely win the top honor eventually

Strasbourg’s career is all but over and has another 3 years and over $100M left on that deal. It’s literally impossible for Sale to top that.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I’d just rather start Pivetta than do the one inning opener thing. With 4 guys behind him that should all be able to throw 3 innings (Murphy, Houck and Whitlock) it’ll give you the option to yank Nick at the earliest sign of trouble and keep Bernardissimo as a late innings weapon against LHH.
But yeah- hot damn !!!!! If that’s the Sale we get back for the stretch- and can sneak into the playoffs- it’s a dangerous team

I have to wonder about the Pivetta approach.

He was phased out of the rotation after 8 starts on May 16 with a 6.30 ERA and a 5.74 FIP. Nick was 3-3 in those games, club record 4-4. It seemed like a perfectly justifiable decision at the time.

He then had 3 multi-inning relief appearances, before being transitioned to a 1 (or less) inning reliever for 6 effective appearances from May 31 to June 12.

He then moves back to a (mostly) multi-inning relief on June 18. During the course of that he transitioned to a defacto starter after Houck and Whitlock went down. He was excellent in that role (including the two recent actual starts), with the club going 6-3 in those games.

If you look at his statcast gamelogs, a couple things caught my eye. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-pivetta-601713?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-statcast&season=2023

First off, this shows only outcome pitches, not pitches thrown earlier in the AB (and if they were balls, fouls, swinging or called strikes) so there is set-up information missing, which may be suggestive in and of itself. But what we have is interesting. If you sort by ab outcome (and sort again by date), you can see the pitches for each game sorted by outcome.

If you look at those aforementioned periods of ineffectiveness v. effectiveness this is what I notice. Early in the season, his fastballs that produce an outcome range from 92 to 95, but a lot seem to be in the 93 range. He'll give up some singles, doubles and HRs on other pitches, but the fastball seems to be the most vulnerable, especially for doubles and homers. If you look at the video of the HRs, they're mostly fastballs in the center of the zone - the movement/delivery is just not fooling anyone. Now, he was getting some Ks with the fastball as well, and many field outs, but the price isn't worth it in terms of his being an effective starter. (Not suggesting he only throw curves or anything.)

When he transitions into the pen he initially starts getting Ks mostly on the curveball, but his outcome fastballs start to creep up to the 95-97ish range and becomes far better in terms of outcomes - more Ks, fewer hits.

When he transitions back to long relief his FB velocity (again on outcome pitches) is a bit low in his first game, but then he starts getting results in the 95-96 range. He keeps on getting Ks with it, but is also using a mix of pitches (or more accurately, a mix of pitches are producing K results.)

I would hesitate to draw strong conclusions from this, because there are a lot of factors that go into these at-bats, and we have a small and limited window into them, in terms of organized data.

But I think that fastball use and quality are really the difference maker for Pivetta. Sure, there are games where he will or won't have his killer curve, and games where the opposition goes hunting for something successfully (see Toronto, 5/3). Mostly though, unless there was a tipping or sequencing issue early on this year, I'd guess that amping Pivetta's fastball up is a real difference maker in terms of outcomes. Will failing to amp it up matter if Pivetta has a good game plan and good secondaries? Who knows? But the more he mucks about with a 93 mph fastball (or whatever in his delivery produces his early-year quality fastball) the more I think he's playing with fire. Personally, I'd keep doing the opener thing with him, unless promises were already made, etc.

 

[LogansDad]

I wonder how much the mentality of "starter" vs "follower/bulk guy" goes into it.

I think Murphy, for one, is really benefitting from his role in which they hope he can go multiple innings, but he also isn't expected to go 5+ like a true starter would, so he can go full bore right from the first pitch when he enters the game, instead of trying to set guys up for their next potential at bat, or pace himself for 90+ pitches. I am curious if this has been a role that has benefitted Pivetta in that way, especially since he does seem like such a competitor, that I think the "go as hard as you can for as long as you can, don't worry about how many innings it is" role could help him with that velo bump.

I will say, that this is a very Rays approach, and their IL right now might be the best rotation in the league if they were all healthy, so I don't know if it is feasible long term, but when you are in the position the Sox are in where every game is really important, maximizing players' output in this way might be the way to go.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I wonder how much the mentality of "starter" vs "follower/bulk guy" goes into it.

I think Murphy, for one, is really benefitting from his role in which they hope he can go multiple innings, but he also isn't expected to go 5+ like a true starter would, so he can go full bore right from the first pitch when he enters the game, instead of trying to set guys up for their next potential at bat, or pace himself for 90+ pitches. I am curious if this has been a role that has benefitted Pivetta in that way, especially since he does seem like such a competitor, that I think the "go as hard as you can for as long as you can, don't worry about how many innings it is" role could help him with that velo bump.

I will say, that this is a very Rays approach, and their IL right now might be the best rotation in the league if they were all healthy, so I don't know if it is feasible long term, but when you are in the position the Sox are in where every game is really important, maximizing players' output in this way might be the way to go.

IIRC, I read something about their changing Murphy's pitch use from the minors. His Savant page shows him being used as a fastball/slider pitcher with occasional curve and change-up.

As for the mentality thing. . .you may be onto something there. Perhaps he thinks (or was taught) he needs to pace himself to go deeper into games if he's a "starter."

PS: Looking at the earlier data is interesting. You don't often think of Pivetta as a dynamic pitcher, but he's featured some very different looks.

Overall, the impression that I get is that everyone has tinkered with him to try to compensate for a fastball that's not quite cutting it.

In 2017 he had the FB, slider, curve, sinker, and a change. The slider is a real weapon (results wise.)
In 2018, the curve becomes a great pitch, and the slider remains good, but the sinker gets lit up. So
In 2019, the sinker and the change are more or less abandoned, and he becomes a FB, curve, slider pitcher.
In 2020 (SSS the fastball is effective). Now he's with the Sox.

In 2021, they bring the change back as a minor pitch to throw to lefties (which is punished) but otherwise he's largely the same pitch mix (minus the sinker) as his early years; 50% FB, the rest a relatively even curve/slider split. This is a relatively average starter year for Pivetta (103 ERA+) and a personal high water mark for him.

In 2022, they tinker. He loses 1 mph from the FB but gains spin and it becomes more effective than 2021. The curve is thrown more often with slower speed and becomes much less effective. They add a cutter, which replaces some of the slider's use (but is effective) and a splitter which gets completely lit up. Change is gone entirely. ERA+ is 93. So overall the revamp is a fail.

In 2023, they ditch the cutter/splitter and add a sweeper. The drastic ups and downs are already discussed - but on average the fastball is a good pitch. Curveball use is still heavyish, but is now 2mph faster and very effective. The slider has taken a half-step back, but the sweeper is very effective (but rarely thrown). ERA+ is at this point 111.

Overall it's a picture of fairly dynamic year-to-year adjustments around a fastball that's been thrown half the time (and which has turned from a liability to a plus for the past 2 years). It's interesting they abandoned the cutter, especially when the slider's return hasn't been great.

 

[beautokyo]

I'm leaning towards the mentality route here. You know how superstitious these guys are. I'm not saying NP is a head case but I'm just saying, if it's not broken, don't fix it. The Bernie-NP tandem has been very very good.

 

[YTF]

Sale's return was encouraging and we're all hopeful that Whitlock and Houck can help to solidify this pitching staff. SSS, but if you go back and look at the last five starts by Paxton, Crawford and Bello each have had a couple of klunkers with gopher balls being a bit of an issue. Hopefully it's not anything to be concerned about.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Bumping as Today's game marks the end of our long look down the schedule for the "three starter" era. The plan (as far as anyone knows) was to navigate a month to the return of Whitlock, Houck, and Sale in mid August.

So far:

6 starts - 1st spot - Bello. The Sox go 4-2 in games started by Bello. Somewhat inconsistent, but has to be considered a success.​

​

5 starts - 2nd spot - Paxton. The Sox go 2-3 in Paxton starts. (They actually flipped Paxton and Crawford early on, getting Paxton an extra day's rest.) Again, somewhat inconsistent. Overall, the outcome isn't great, but this could have been 3-2 with more timely hitting/more effective relief.​

​

6 starts - 3rd spot - Crawford. Sox go 3-3. Perhaps the most inconsistent of the 3, but he was partially victimized by a rain delayed game. For a pitcher expected to be a nominal 5th starter, this is acceptable.​

​

4 starts - 4th spot - Pivetta as a bulk man/starter with an opener. Sox go 2-2. Pivetta was perhaps more consistent than Crawford and often provided more quality innings.​

​

4 starts - 5th spot. "bullpen" game, using Murphy the anchoring pitcher/bulk man. Sox go 1-3 in those games. Not entirely surprising. This sport was essentially taken over by Sale on Aug 11, and he went 1-1.​

Instead of trying to max out the Bello/Paxton/Crawford starts and limit the "bullpen" games (although Pivetta was essentially a disguised starter) they opted for a more or less regular progression through the rotation, with the off-days falling where they may.

Overall - 12-13. I have to think about this more, but I think this ranks this as a failure, although not a disaster we hope. First off, the losses are also attributable to bad defense and poor offense at times. Second, sure they got through the stretch until Sale's return without overloading anyone. Yet I think those 5th spot bullpen games could have been reduced, keeping the bullpen overall perhaps a touch fresher and giving the team more opportunities to win. Getting to the post-season may come down to a couple of games.

The white text is the original proposed schedule for how the team might fare in the 3 starter/injury era.​

Greens are wins, Reds are losses, indents are notes and roster moves.​

Innings are 1(ish) with starter and significant long/short appearances noted.​

Bold is most pivotal pitcher, good in a win or bad in a loss (my subjective reading.)​

​

July 14 @ Cubs Bello - Bello (6), Winckowski, Bernardino, Scott, Jansen (.1).​

July 15 @ Cubs Paxton - Paxton (3), Scott, Rodriguez, Jaques, Walter (2).​

Scott DFA'd (claimed OAK)​

Jake Faria up from AAA (stretched out as a starter, last pitched 7/5.)​

July 16 @ Cubs Crawford - Crawford (6), Jacques, Faria (2 - 65 pitches).​

Faria DFA'd (Worcester)​

Bleier back from the IL.​

July 17 @ A’s Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (2), Pivetta (6), Martin.​

July 18 @ A’s Bullpen - Jacques, Murphy (4.2), Rodriguez, Bleier.​

July 19 @ A’s Bello - Bello (4), Rodriguez, Winckowski (2), Jansen.​

July 20 off​

July 21 vs NYM Paxton - Crawford (4) Suspended Game due to Rain. (score 4-3 Mets)​

Bello on Paternity List​

Garza up from AAA.​

Story and Kluber begin rehab assignments.​

July 22 vs NYM (cont.) Jacques, Bernardino, Bleier (2), Martin.​

July 22 vs NYM Crawford - Paxton (6), Winckowski, Pivetta, Garza, Jansen (.1).​

July 23 vs NYM Bullpen/Pivetta - Bernardino (1.2), Murphy (3.2), Winckowski, Rodriguez, Jacques, Martin, Walter. ​

July 24 off​

Garza and Walter to AAA. (note: very light use of Walter recently.)​

Schreiber off the IL. Bello off the Paternity List​

July 25 vs ATL Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (5), Bleier, Martin, Rodriguez (2).​

Kluber begins rehab assignment.​

Story begins rehab assignment.​

July 26 vs ATL Paxton - Bello (6), Jacques, Schreiber, Bernardino (.1), Jansen.​

July 27 off​

July 28 @ SF Crawford - Crawford (5.2), Bernardino (.1), Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.​

Jacques to AAA.​

Llovera (acquired from SFG) called up.​

July 29 @ SF Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Bleier, Llovera, Jansen.​

July 30 @ SF Bello - Bernardino, Schreiber (2), Murphy (3.1), Winckowski (1.2), Bleier, Martin, Llovera.​

Jacques called up.​

Rodriguez to 15 day IL (hip), retroactive to the 29th.)​

July 31 @ SEA Paxton - Pivetta (7.1), Jacques.​

Aug 1 @ SEA Bullpen - Bello (6), Martin, Winckowski, Jansen.​

Sale begins rehab assignment at AAA.​

(Note: Trade Deadline)​

Aug 2 @ SEA Crawford - Crawford (5), Schreiber, Bleier, Llovera.​

Aug 3 off​

Aug 4 vs TOR Bullpen/Pivetta - Paxton (5), Llovera, Jacques, Bleier.​

Houck begins rehab assignment at AAA.​

Aug 5 vs TOR Bello - Schreiber, Pivetta (4), Bernardino, Winckowski (1.2), Martin, Jacques.​

Jacques to AAA.​

Nick Robertson called up. (Acquired in E.Hernandez trade.)​

Aug 6 vs TOR Paxton - Bernardino, Murphy (2.1), Llovera, Bleier (2.1), Robertson, Reyes. ​

Bleier DFA'd​

Lamet called up.​

Aug 7 vs KC Crawford - Bello (6.2) Winckowski (.1), Martin, Jansen.​

Story returns from IL (goes 0-4 batting 3rd on 8/8)​

Aug 8 vs KC Bullpen - Crawford (3.1), Bernardino, Lamet (2), Robertson (3). ​

Lamet DFA'd​

Robertson to AAA.​

Walter called up.​

Barraclough called up.​

Whitlock begins rehab assignment (expected to be short.)​

Aug 9 vs KC Bullpen/Pivetta - Pivetta (5), Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.​

Aug 10 vs KC Bello - Paxton (5.1), Schreiber, Winckowski, Martin, Jansen.​

Sale Returns from IL.​

Walter to AAA (unused in call-up.)​

Aug 11 vs DET Paxton - Sale (4.2), Barraclough, Murphy (3).​

Aug 12 vs DET Crawford - Bello (4.2), Bernardino, Llovera, Schreiber, Barraclough (2) ​

Whitlock returns from the IL (when the thread began his return was unknown, reporting is he will be used in a bullpen role.)​

Barraclough to AAA.​

Aug 13 vs DET Bullpen/Pivetta - Crawford (4.2), Bernardino (.1), Whitlock (2), Martin, Jansen.​

Aug 14 off​

(Note: from the beginning of the thread: Story, Sale, Houck in "mid august" possible return? Story actually back on 8/8, Sale on 8/10, as of 8/13 Houck is rehabbing with one more AAA start before a planned return "as a starter.")​

Aug 15 @ WSN​

Aug 16 @ WSN​

Aug 17 @ WSN​

(Note: the Gauntlet starts)​

Aug 18 @ NYY​

Aug 19 @ NYY​

Aug 20 @ NYY​

(Note: as of 8/13 Houck is rehabbing with one more AAA start before a planned return "as a starter for the HOU series.")​

Aug 21 @ HOU​

Aug 22 @ HOU​

Aug 23 @ HOU​

Aug 24 @ HOU​

Aug 25 vs LAD​

Aug 26 vs LAD​

Aug 27 vs LAD​

Aug 28 vs HOU​

Aug 29 vs HOU​

Aug 30 vs HOU​

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Note about when Houck might be back and on why they are trying to limit Crawford\s innings:
https://theathletic.com/4772957/2023/08/13/kutter-crawford-red-sox-rotation/

Houck is expected to make one last rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the rotation next week in Houston, at which point the Red Sox will basically have to decide whether to DFA new reliever Mauricio Llovera or else send Crawford, Murphy or Bernardino back to Triple A (and even that might be a brief assignment before rosters expand on Sept. 1).

As of now it seems like the obvious way to go would be dumping Llovera. But things might change over the next 10 or so days.

Crawford, though, has made his case to stick around in any role necessary. He’s already thrown 90 innings — and he hasn’t thrown as many as 95 in a season since 2018 — but he’s gotten the Red Sox deep enough into the season that they can now afford to manage his workload a little more.

Seems like since they want to limit his innings, Crawford will end up in the bullpen if/when the others are all healthy.

 

[chawson]

Note about when Houck might be back and on why they are trying to limit Crawford\s innings:
https://theathletic.com/4772957/2023/08/13/kutter-crawford-red-sox-rotation/


As of now it seems like the obvious way to go would be dumping Llovera. But things might change over the next 10 or so days.


Seems like since they want to limit his innings, Crawford will end up in the bullpen if/when the others are all healthy.

It'd be nice to get Houck some work. His prospects as a starter have really improved this year, the line drive notwithstanding. It'd be nice if we can enter 2024 with fewer concerns about his innings limit.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It'd be nice to get Houck some work. His prospects as a starter have really improved this year, the line drive notwithstanding. It'd be nice if we can enter 2024 with fewer concerns about his innings limit.

Agree here that Houck should probably go forward taking Crawford's spot now knowing about the innings limits they're working with on him. I hope he sticks around as a 2,3 inning bullpen arm though instead of Llovera. Seems like an obvious choice. Going forward with Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta and Houck as the starters and having Whitlock, Crawford and Winchowski as multi-innings relievers makes the most sense going forward

 

[Rovin Romine]

As of now it seems like the obvious way to go would be dumping Llovera. But things might change over the next 10 or so days.

I'd guess it depends on Llovera's performance. If they're worried about Crawford's innings, they can rest him a bit at AAA if Llovera is producing. Then DFA Llovera to call up Crawford after a spell.

As it is, they still have have one "Crawford" start to replace before Houck returns for the HOU series. And I kind of doubt it's wise to draw on the bullpen arms too much before Houck starts - as Houck might not be going that long into games himself.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The one thing I want to point out is Thank F'in Bloom that we didn't send Pivetta away. I don't know how to qualify it... but there's gotta be some way to show how valuable guys with healthy arms that don't miss games can be - and anything close to league average results are just bonus points. I still worry about not having him next season and posters are already disappearing him on the '24 pitching threads (I'm guilty there too).

 

[TFisNEXT]

The one thing I want to point out is Thank F'in Bloom that we didn't send Pivetta away. I don't know how to qualify it... but there's gotta be some way to show how valuable guys with healthy arms that don't miss games can be - and anything close to league average results are just bonus points. I still worry about not having him next season and posters are already disappearing him on the '24 pitching threads (I'm guilty there too).

Pivetta still has another arb year, doesn’t he? I don’t see any reason that Bloom would send Pivetta packing when he’s had a breakthrough this summer (and hopefully lasting through autumn).

And as you already said, durable innings-eating arms even at league average ERA are quite valuable. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try and buy out Pivetta’s first FA year either.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Pivetta still has another arb year, doesn’t he? I don’t see any reason that Bloom would send Pivetta packing when he’s had a breakthrough this summer (and hopefully lasting through autumn).

And as you already said, durable innings-eating arms even at league average ERA are quite valuable. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try and buy out Pivetta’s first FA year either.

Yes he does but as I said, I'm also guilty of apparently either writing him off or looking to trade him. He's just undervalued and it seems almost unanimously across the board. He's barely mentioned in the '24 pitching thread posts.

I'm wondering if there is some stat that takes into consideration the replacement innings that are pitched when pitchers inevitably end up on the DL.
So it'd be Sale+replacements (or any starter) comparing it to Pivetta?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The Red Sox are being cautious with Bello's workload as well:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/08/12/sports/brayan-bello-represents-an-exciting-glimpse-into-future-red-sox-are-endeavoring-keep-him-well-rested-future-availability/

He's still 34 innings short of what he threw last year but that means he could be past that point in another 6 or 7 starts. Late September or (if needed) October starts could put him beyond what he's thrown before.

With each outing — the latest coming in Saturday’s 6-2 loss to Detroit, where Bello pitched 4⅔ innings — the 24-year-old righthander inches closer to setting a career high in innings. After Saturday’s game, he was at 119⅓ innings between the majors and minors, 34 shy of what he threw last year.
“Physically, I bet he’s feeling it, but it’s nothing for us to raise a red flag,” Sox manager Alex Cora said.

He's been less effective lately, but is that due to the workload or something else? The article points to the workload.

But the effects of the workload are starting to show. Bello gave up nine hits and four earned runs Saturday in just the fifth time this season he’s failed to reach the five-inning threshold. In his six starts since the All-Star break, his ERA is 5.71.

His spin rate is down.

The spin rate of each of Bello’s pitches Saturday fell below their season average, per Baseball Savant. That continues a troubling trend — the spin rate on his primary pitch, the sinker, has dropped precipitously over the course of the season.

Bello says he is fine. Cora says they want to protect him.

“Like you said, it’s a long season,” Bello said, through team interpreter Carlos Villoria Benitez. “I feel good, I feel healthy, I feel strong, so I just try to make adjustments and try to learn on the go.”
“It’s just his second season,” said Cora. “And this guy is very important, not only for now, but for the future. And whenever we have a chance to give him a breather, we will.”

They have been giving him extra rest all season when possible:

16 of Bello’s 20 starts have come with at least one extra day of rest and he has a 3.39 ERA in those appearances. When asked to pitch on normal rest — like he was Saturday — that mark balloons to 5.82.
As he gets further into his season, the Sox will likely look to keep giving Bello extra days of rest. Cora said Bello’s next start will be Friday against the Yankees, giving him five days between starts. Getting Bello similar gaps between appearances will become easier with the return of Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock close behind.

 

[joe dokes]

I think the strain of being the only 3 starters -- the need to preserve the bullpen for 4 and 5 had to be in the back of their minds on top of just trying to "do well" -- has contributed to relative slumps for Paxton, Bello and Crawford; especially as the offense slowed for the last few weeks, adding additonal leverage.

 

[BaseballJones]

Some of it is just them coming back to earth as well. They were pitching SO well that a drop-off was to be expected.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think the strain of being the only 3 starters -- the need to preserve the bullpen for 4 and 5 had to be in the back of their minds on top of just trying to "do well" -- has contributed to relative slumps for Paxton, Bello and Crawford; especially as the offense slowed for the last few weeks, adding additonal leverage.

It's a workable theory. Especially considering the lift Paxton has given the club when he did go deep in games.

(I never would have thought when the 3 starter run began that Pivetta would log the longest start at 7.1 innings.)

 

[chrisfont9]

Pivetta still has another arb year, doesn’t he? I don’t see any reason that Bloom would send Pivetta packing when he’s had a breakthrough this summer (and hopefully lasting through autumn).

And as you already said, durable innings-eating arms even at league average ERA are quite valuable. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try and buy out Pivetta’s first FA year either.

This discussion is especially interesting because of the Sox' roster long term. They have Sale and Bello thru next year and maybe they bring back Paxton -- that would be three traditional volume starters, two proven and one trying to get there. They are also making plenty of noises about adding another (possibly replacing Paxton).

Then you have no less than four guys -- Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford, maybe even Winckowski or Murphy -- who could potentially be starters but have either held up better or just been sharper in relief roles or more limited innings. Do you try to make them all into 6+ inning pitchers and just see who shakes out? That seems like the approach they were taking and we were hoping to get answers on at least Houck and Whitlock before injuries hit. But in the end you might just call them all swingmen and do lots of piggyback starts, which with Winck, Murphy and the back end bullpen guys is pretty solid.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Then you have no less than four guys -- Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford, maybe even Winckowski or Murphy -- who could potentially be starters but have either held up better or just been sharper in relief roles or more limited innings. Do you try to make them all into 6+ inning pitchers and just see who shakes out? That seems like the approach they were taking and we were hoping to get answers on at least Houck and Whitlock before injuries hit. But in the end you might just call them all swingmen and do lots of piggyback starts, which with Winck, Murphy and the back end bullpen guys is pretty solid.

That's absolutely what they should be doing with those guys. It's much easier to start the season stretching a bunch of guys out to 60-80+ pitches per outing and let them fall back to short relieving as needed than vice versa. Fill out the back of the rotation in April and May with the guys that seem to be the most effective and go from there.

Eventually they're going to have to pick a role for each pitcher and stick to it, since it's unsustainable to have that many guys rotating between starting/bulk roles and more traditional relief roles on a long term basis. To really make such a thing work, you need a bunch of optionable arms and these guys are going to run out of options eventually. In the meantime, keep as many avenues open as possible.

 

[chrisfont9]

That's absolutely what they should be doing with those guys. It's much easier to start the season stretching a bunch of guys out to 60-80+ pitches per outing and let them fall back to short relieving as needed than vice versa. Fill out the back of the rotation in April and May with the guys that seem to be the most effective and go from there.

Eventually they're going to have to pick a role for each pitcher and stick to it, since it's unsustainable to have that many guys rotating between starting/bulk roles and more traditional relief roles on a long term basis. To really make such a thing work, you need a bunch of optionable arms and these guys are going to run out of options eventually. In the meantime, keep as many avenues open as possible.

Right, I agreed with trying it, and even now I'm not sure we have clear enough answers to move to the stage of picking long term roles. Even with Whitlock who keeps having things happen, it's possible his body hangs together as he ages and builds strength. Maybe Pivetta is the only one where you can look at the results and say that he clearly belongs in a less-than-fully-stretched role based on his fastball.

 

[joe dokes]

Some of it is just them coming back to earth as well. They were pitching SO well that a drop-off was to be expected.

Absolutely. That's probably most of it. The comments of Schilling (or maybe it was Smoltz) came to mind when I thought about the 3 (they needed a nickname! too late I guess). Back in the day when they routinely went 7 or more innings, one of them said its not the innings, its the stressed innings, that wear pitchers down.

 

[chrisfont9]

Good article on Pivetta from Speier:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/08/14/sports/with-emotions-motion-nick-pivetta-embraces-role-hybrid-pitcher-when-he-takes-mound-red-sox/

I never quite thought Pivetta was rejecting a demotion to the pen, I just thought he was lobbying for his rotation spot and wasn't going to make Cora's job of moving him easy. Now he's embracing it, possibly because it's worked so well.

 

[JM3]

Brayan Bello has made 15 starts at night & 6 during the day this season. He will be on the mound for Boston this afternoon.

Night stats: 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9-3 record
Day stats: 7.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 0-4 record

Brayan Bello - confirmed vampire.

 

[TonyPenaNeverJuiced]

Brayan Bello - confirmed vampire.

Not trying to add flames to the fire. But . . . let's look at Bello's worst starts of the year:

1. April 17, Angels @ Red Sox
   1. 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 HBP
   2. The Angels sell garlic fries at their home in Anaheim (he performed better in Anaheim but still gave up 2HR)
2. July 19, Red Sox @ Athletics
   1. 4 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 HBP
   2. The Athletics sell garlic fries
3. August 12, Tigers @ Red Sox
   1. 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB
   2. The Tigers sell a "Shawarma Fry" that comes topped with garlic sauce
4. August 1, Red Sox @ Mariners
   1. 6 IP, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB
   2. The Mariners sell garlic fries at their home in Seattle
5. May 17, Mariners @ Red Sox
   1. 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 HBP, 5 BB
   2. See above

Of course, this is an SSS, but even an SSS of garlic can harm a vampire. To kill one, you must stab them in the heart with a Silver Slugger Award.

Now, I know someone is gonna pipe up and say, "TPNJ, what about Bello's best starts of the year, in June, vs. the Yankees? The Yankees sell garlic fries!" And to that, I say: one vampire can't harm another vampire with garlic. It's just not how it works.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Paxton
Crawford

I don't have a substantive comment, but I always do a double-take whenever I see these names listed consecutively in the context of a discussion of the Red Sox starting rotation in a year that is not 2001.

 

[joe dokes]

Not trying to add flames to the fire. But . . . let's look at Bello's worst starts of the year:

1. April 17, Angels @ Red Sox
   1. 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 HBP
   2. The Angels sell garlic fries at their home in Anaheim (he performed better in Anaheim but still gave up 2HR)
2. July 19, Red Sox @ Athletics
   1. 4 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 HBP
   2. The Athletics sell garlic fries
3. August 12, Tigers @ Red Sox
   1. 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB
   2. The Tigers sell a "Shawarma Fry" that comes topped with garlic sauce
4. August 1, Red Sox @ Mariners
   1. 6 IP, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB
   2. The Mariners sell garlic fries at their home in Seattle
5. May 17, Mariners @ Red Sox
   1. 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 HBP, 5 BB
   2. See above

Of course, this is an SSS, but even an SSS of garlic can harm a vampire. To kill one, you must stab them in the heart with a Silver Slugger Award.

Now, I know someone is gonna pipe up and say, "TPNJ, what about Bello's best starts of the year, in June, vs. the Yankees? The Yankees sell garlic fries!" And to that, I say: one vampire can't harm another vampire with garlic. It's just not how it works.

Could explain his 6.75 ERA vs. MIN and this guy

 

[Rovin Romine]

Brayan Bello has made 15 starts at night & 6 during the day this season. He will be on the mound for Boston this afternoon.

Night stats: 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9-3 record
Day stats: 7.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 0-4 record

Brayan Bello - confirmed vampire.

I'm sure the pitching staff has a more granular view of it all. But if he has a terrible start, you do have to wonder if they wouldn't have been wiser pushing him back a day.

 

[BaseballJones]

Why would a guy pitch better at night vs. the day, other than statistical noise? More sleep in night games?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm sure the pitching staff has a more granular view of it all. But if he has a terrible start, you do have to wonder if they wouldn't have been wiser pushing him back a day.

Or swap him with Sale. They both got pushed back a day to make room for Houck so it's not like he'd have been on short rest.

I think it's mostly statistical noise.

 

[joe dokes]

Why would a guy pitch better at night vs. the day, other than statistical noise? More sleep in night games?

It could be sleep. It could be partying. (Theoretically. Nothing to attach that to Bello.) But as others suggested, I think its just noise. Or mostly noise, and a bit of still needing to figure out how to prepare as well for relatively unusual starting times.

 

[effectivelywild]

Why would a guy pitch better at night vs. the day, other than statistical noise? More sleep in night games?

Maybe he has a new baby at home? Or maybe that only affects catchers. Where's Eric Van when you need him?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Why would a guy pitch better at night vs. the day, other than statistical noise? More sleep in night games?

Routine, I would think. Simply not as much experience preparing to pitch in day games.

 

[Sin Duda]

Aaaand there goes that theory. 7 IP, 1ER.

 

[JM3]

Aaaand there goes that theory. 7 IP, 1ER.

There was a dome, limiting the exposure to the sun. Vampire theory still viable.

 

[Sin Duda]

There was a dome, limiting the exposure to the sun. Vampire theory still viable.

Well played!

 

[JM3]

This doesn't seem like a huge deal strategically, but the Tweet looks kind of cool visually.

View: https://twitter.com/RRyanmedeiros/status/1695464627591594466

 

[jon abbey]

TB did that with their bullpen a few years ago, I see the advantage there more than this, although this is maybe an advantage in a long playoff series.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

(Not the game thread, oops)

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

JT!

He can pitch too?????

 

[soxhop411]

Tanner Houck has a 3D mold of his fractured face on a chain

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1696243994789830894


He told me he’s thinking of putting Halloween candy in it.

View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1696245219744723294


I love it...

 

[soxhop411]

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Red Sox power-hitting prospect Bobby Dalbec got stuck with a dreaded middle seat on the flight to Japan for the Premier 12 Tournament. So he acted like chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and made a trade.

“Tanner Houck was in the window (seat),” Dalbec said. “And I paid him like 200 bucks to take the window so I could sleep.”

“That was his first offer and I jumped on it,” Houck added.

“I think I high-balled a little bit,” Dalbec said. “I think I could have got him for a little bit lower. But it was worth it."

Keep an eye on these two talented Red Sox prospects. Dalbec, a 2016 fourth-round draft pick out of Arizona, has bashed 59 homers the past two minor league seasons combined (264 games). The Red Sox added the 24-year-old first baseman/third baseman to the 40-man roster in November. Baseball America has him ranked No. 75 on its top 100 and it listed him as having the best infield arm and most power in the Red Sox minor league system.

He certainly is a candidate to win a spot on Boston’s Opening Day 26-man roster.

Houck, a 2017 first-round pick out of Mizzou, is one of several candidates for Boston’s open fifth starter spot. The right-handed pitcher started against Tampa Bay on Monday, tossing 2 scoreless innings in a 2-2 Grapefruit League tie.

The 23-year-old Houck — who also played in Japan with U.S. collegiate team in 2015 — viewed the $200 as much more valuable than a window seat.

“Either way we’re gonna be uncomfortable on a 14-, 15-hour flight. Might as well,” Houck said.

It was a regular commercial plane, nothing fancy like the luxury “flying hotel” (as Alex Cora described it) that the Red Sox traveled on to London last summer.

Team Mexico was on the same flight with Team USA to Tokyo. The plane had middle row seating as well.

This particular side row included three very tall baseball players. Houck is listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Dalbec is about 6-foot-4, 230 pounds. Pirates pitching prospect Cody Ponce, who is listed at 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, had the aisle seat.

“We were all sitting right next to each other and we’re all big guys. So it already was just a cluster having us three in the same row together,” Houck said. “So it was like, no matter what ...”

Did Houck spend the money in Japan?

“I bought some stuff for the family. Bought some stuff for me. I actually bought a samurai sword," Houck said. “And I actually had the whole team sign it.

"I wanted something kind of unique. Everybody was getting a jersey or baseball signed. I was like, ‘You know what? I’ll get it on the samurai sword.’ Might as well. Just a fun little, like silly memory that I’ll look back on in 10, 15 years and kind of be like, ‘Good times but what was I thinking?’”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-slugger-bobby-dalbec-traded-tanner-houck-200-for-window-seat-on-flight-to-japan-houck-then-bought-samurai-sword.html

So this does seem like something he would do...