I intentionally added the Angels & Yankees just to lol @ the Yankees. But your take is valid as well.Fixed.
I intentionally added the Angels & Yankees just to lol @ the Yankees. But your take is valid as well.Fixed.
Alvard Espinoza would be one of their better bats in the 2023 lineup.Crap ... the Yankees still have a 0.5% chance
This caused me to go down the ‘03 schedule rabbit hole and it reminded me how well the Red Sox played in September. Despite the sweep, the Red Sox actually ceded back some ground to Seattle and were 1.5 games behind heading into the month. But then they ripped off a 17-7 stretch to start the month and put the wildcard away before losing their last 2 meaningless games.Great call. I remember going to the Friday night game in late August against Seattle. It was the first of a four game series, with a rare Monday game to end the series. The Sox were 4 back of Seattle headed into the series, and 1 game back of Oakland. The Sox took the Friday night game and I distinctly remember my dad saying something like “the Sox could sweep this series with the way the pitching is lined up”. And he was / is an eternal pessimist. And the Sox did indeed sweep the series and emerged from the weekend tied with Seattle. And they never looked back.
Thanks for the pull!This caused me to go down the ‘03 schedule rabbit hole and it reminded me how well the Red Sox played in September. Despite the sweep, the Red Sox actually ceded back some ground to Seattle and were 1.5 games behind heading into the month. But then they ripped off a 17-7 stretch to start the month and put the wildcard away before losing their last 2 meaningless games.
I had initially remembered it more like you…that after the sweep, they never looked back. But now that I see it, the memory of them playing really well in September and really needing it is coming back. They ripped off a bunch of games in early September to take the WC lead and then they never relented it….this might be where those memories come from.
He'll be in Japan next year. Swallows I betchaand some other guy probably forever.
The Sox currently have a. 532 winning percentage, or .100 less than the .632 they'd need to get to 90 wins. Continuing to play at that .532 clip would get them 20 more wins, or to 86-76. I guess we have to hope and believe that the belated reinforcements are worth an additional four wins over six weeks.So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games. Now they need to go 24-14 (.632) over the final 38 games.
Raffy catching fire at the plate for the final stretch run here would be some fortuitous timing as well. I suspect it's going to take some good variance like that to get this done....someone like Urias getting hot at the bottom of the lineup as well....and pray we get May/June Chris Sale for the final stretch run too.The Sox currently have a. 532 winning percentage, or .100 less than the .632 they'd need to get to 90 wins. Continuing to play at that .532 clip would get them 20 more wins, or to 86-76. I guess we have to hope and believe that the belated reinforcements are worth an additional four wins over six weeks.
On June 29, the Red Sox were at 40-42 after getting swept by the Marlins. Since then they are 26-16 (.619), so it's doable.So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games. Now they need to go 24-14 (.632) over the final 38 games.
The tie-breaker situation makes these 7 games against Houston even bigger. Since it's a real possibility we're neck and neck with them to get in at the end, it's critical to go at least 4-3 and win the series.I think I'm missing something here on records but this looks like a safe projection based on schedule... leaning with a little optimism towards the Sox and pushing down on Houston perhaps more than likely. If my math is correct (it almost never is) that puts both Toronto and Boston at 2.5 games out. Head to head matchups give the Sox the tie-breaker at this point.
They're already 7-3 against the Jays with 3 more to go in September. Hypothetically they could get swept by them and still have the advantage in a tie-breaker.... but I'd bet IF that happens, it would basically knock the Sox further back enough that the head-to-head W/L record wouldn't figure in. Just win and these things won't matterThe tie-breaker situation makes these 7 games against Houston even bigger. Since it's a real possibility we're neck and neck with them to get in at the end, it's critical to go at least 4-3 and win the series.
I believe it’s best record in intradivision games - which doesn’t make a ton of sense, but whatever. Seattle is something like 22-11 in AL West, so they would appear to have tiebreaker over Sox.Is there a second tiebreaker they do if the season series is tied? Red Sox and Mariners are currently 3-3 against eachother.
Yikes, Seattle might win 12 games in that 9 game stretch.Until the end of August:
Blue Jays have 9 games- 3 against Bawlmer, 3 against Cleveland at home and 3 against DC at home. I'm picking them to go 5-4 over those 9. Currently -0.5 in last WC spot. 69-56 rec
Seattle has 9 games- 3 against White Sox, 3 against KC at home and 3 against Oakland at home. I'm picking them to go 6-3 over those 9. Currently in last WC spot 69-55 record
Sox have the toughest stretch- 10 games.... 4 at Houston, 3 at Dodgers, then 3 at home against Houston. I'm picking them to go 6-4 over those 10. Currently -3.0 in last WC spot 66-58 rec
Houston has 10- 4 against the Sox at home, then 3 against the Tigers, 3 in Boston. I'm picking them to go 5-5 over those. Currently +.5 in WC with 2nd spot, 70-55 record
End of August standings:
2nd WC spot- Seattle- 75-58
3rd WC spot- Houston- 75-60
out still looking in:
Boston- 72-62
Toronto- 74-60
I think I'm missing something here on records but this looks like a safe projection based on schedule... leaning with a little optimism towards the Sox and pushing down on Houston perhaps more than likely. If my math is correct (it almost never is) that puts both Toronto and Boston at 2.5 games out. Head to head matchups give the Sox the tie-breaker at this point.
I was talking about having the head to head tiebreaker against the Astros should they finish with the same record for the last wild card spot.They're already 7-3 against the Jays with 3 more to go in September. Hypothetically they could get swept by them and still have the advantage in a tie-breaker.... but I'd bet IF that happens, it would basically knock the Sox further back enough that the head-to-head W/L record wouldn't figure in. Just win and these things won't matter
Yeah... I understood that pretty clearly. I was just adding in the other potential team that we could end up tied with after someone else mentioned we finished 3-3 against Seattle.I was talking about having the head to head tiebreaker against the Astros should they finish with the same record for the last wild card spot.
Ok, I think I totally lost track of your discussion flow there, but I'll take your word for it.Yeah... I understood that pretty clearly. I was just adding in the other potential team that we could end up tied with after someone else mentioned we finished 3-3 against Seattle.
The Manila Metric of this all is killing me.While they still have a hope, I'm going to update this after each series.
I originally assumed they need 89 wins to catch the Jays and make the playoffs. Now that the Mariners have passed the Jays, I think it takes a minimum of 90 wins to get in. And if they get to 90 but don't make it in, sure it will be disappointing, but it will also be more than most of us expected coming into the season.
So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games. Now they need to go 24-14 (.632) over the final 38 games. Here's a possible path:
Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.
after 8/13 (62-56)
8/14 off
8/15-17 ... 3 @ Nats ...2-1 (64-57)... 1-2 (63-58)
8/18-20 ... 3 @ Yankees ...2-1 (66-58)... 3-0 (66-58) Back on track sweep!
8/21-24 ... 4 @ Astros ... 2-2 (68-60)
8/25-27 ... 3 vs Dodgers ... 1-2 (69-62)
8/28-30 ... 3 vs Astros ... 2-1 (71-63)
8/31 off day
9/1-3 ... 3 @ Royals ... 3-0 (74-63) {changed from original 2-1 in order to get to 90 wins}
9/4-6 ... 3 @ Rays ... 2-1 (76-64)
9/7 off day
9/8-10 ... 3 vs Orioles ... 2-1 (78-65)
9/11-14 ... 4 vs Yankees ... 3-1 (81-66)
9/15-17 ... 3 @ Blue Jays ... 2-1 (83-67)
9/18-20 ... 3 @ Rangers ... 1-2 (84-69)
9/21 off day
9/22-24 ... 3 vs White Sox ... 3-0 (87-69)
9/25 off day
9/26-27 ... 2 vs Rays ... 1-1 (88-70)
9/28-10/1 ... 4 @ Orioles ... 2-2 (90-72)
It's going to take something surprising, I think. The Sox are not going to win their way in -- they need two teams to collapse. Maybe the Rays will shit the bed, but it would have to be a massive drop. Maybe Seattle get as cold as they have been hot.The Sox currently have a. 532 winning percentage, or .100 less than the .632 they'd need to get to 90 wins. Continuing to play at that .532 clip would get them 20 more wins, or to 86-76. I guess we have to hope and believe that the belated reinforcements are worth an additional four wins over six weeks.
Seriously. Teams don't play at their full season winning percentage every single month. And not every series is 2-1 against contenders and 3-0 against the dreck. You'll get some surprises in both directions, but hopefully it all totals up to around 90 wins in the end.The Manila Metric of this all is killing me.
They need one team to collapse; I think they can pick off the Jays without anything dramatic happening. The second WC would have to come from Tampa (semi-collapse) or from one of the three AL West teams, which works a lot better if two of them snuff out the third for us. Houston is on the shakiest ground, and of course the Sox can play a huge role. So while I don't see this series as winner-take-all in the literal sense, it's going to have a pretty big psychological impact if anyone gets the upper hand.It's going to take something surprising, I think. The Sox are not going to win their way in -- they need two teams to collapse. Maybe the Rays will shit the bed, but it would have to be a massive drop. Maybe Seattle get as cold as they have been hot.
I don't think either of these things is going to happen. The Sox getting swept by the Jays really hurt. But more fundamentally, they've kind of been right about the 8th best team in the AL all year, and I sort of think that's pretty much how they are going to end the year, whether that's 83 or 88 wins.
This does seem to be the corner they've painted themselves into.Yikes, Seattle might win 12 games in that 9 game stretch.
I think 4-3 against Houston puts the Sox in decent shape for September, as long as they don't spit the bit completely against the Dodgers. Anything less than 4-3, especially with how easy Seattle's schedule is up until their final 10 games, would make the hill very, very steep. Anything better than 4-3 and I really like their chances.
This is the biggest 10 game stretch since 2021. I say we win and enjoy it.
At this point I'm not even sure that they'll get it together too late. That 7-8 games over .500 mark seems to be a barrier that they just can't seem to break through. Pick any two of offense, defense and pitching and you have a decent chance of winning games. All three give you a much better chance, but all too often it seems that the Sox fall into this funk where two of the three are letting them down. Leading the league in errors is a huge issue, couple that with pitching issues earlier in the season and multiple stretches where the offense has disappeared and it's pretty amazing that they are where they are. This season has simultaneously been fun and frustrating.This does seem to be the corner they've painted themselves into.
If the Sox had 3 or 4 more wins against sub .500 teams, they'd have a much greater margin of error when approaching the WC clubs. When the story of the season is finished, the most telling part might be that they farted around early in the season, then got it together too late, a la 2019. I'm not pointing any particular fingers here, BTW. It's not realistic to expect a laser-focus for the entire season. But I do wish they had attacked the less-competitive teams as well.
As it is, I think we have some cause for hope. The current roster is a very competitive ball-club. They should be threats to win just about any game they find themselves in. It will mostly be about (as it has been all year) consistency.
That's fair. I think though, that some of the results are about player depth and injury/performance:At this point I'm not even sure that they'll get it together too late. That 7-8 games over .500 mark seems to be a barrier that they just can't seem to break through. Pick any two of offense, defense and pitching and you have a decent chance of winning games. All three give you a much better chance, but all too often it seems that the Sox fall into this funk where two of the three are letting them down. Leading the league in errors is a huge issue, couple that with pitching issues earlier in the season and multiple stretches where the offense has disappeared and it's pretty amazing that they are where they are. This season has simultaneously been fun and frustrating.
I know it’s a typo, but kind of sums up the whole season to date. One hole plugged; another one opens.The big derailer was again the whole that had to be plugged.
Right, it's the clusters of injuries that have you putting a guy out there who can't hang. They not only lost a bunch of middle infielders at the same time (or had them in and out of availability), they lost Duvall at the same time too, putting their whole up-the-middle defense way back on its heels. Miraculously at least one of the emergency callups, Duran, far exceeded the stopgap level, and the Spinal Tap Drummer situation in the infield occasionally yielded good play too, or who knows where we would be.That's fair. I think though, that some of the results are about player depth and injury/performance:
***
From the lineup perspective: I tend to think that the club did a very good job with bringing in new talent, either as an intended MiL promotion, or via FA signings: Casas, Yoshida, Duvall, Turner.
However, the big de-railer was Story's injury, followed by Chang's injury, and Hernandez's ineffectiveness. It really just snowballed on them. And it's not like they didn't have hopes for a reasonable league-average production. If Hernandez (who is hitting just fine now, the git) had hit or fielded, or Chang, or Mondesi, or Valdez, or Hamilton, or Arroyo was his usual 100 OPS+ self, the season would look very different.
Of the emergency replacements, Duran was brilliant, but otherwise Reyes and Urias were the only two to go over the 90 OPS+ mark, and they were solutions acquired when many of the others had burned out or burned down. The rest were not great: Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Valdez, Chang, Hamilton. Don't get me wrong - it was very good emergency depth in places, but it was just emergency depth and used more than one would like.
***
From the pitching perspective it's far more volatile, often hinging on injury. Of the "new" talent, Jansen and Martin were great while Rodriguez and Mills were injured. Bleier and Kluber sucked. So, not so great on the evaluations there.
Of the emergency replacements or lower tier guys (loosely defined as not 100% in the offseason plan) we got some great showings out of: Winckowski, Bernardino, Murphy, Crawford. Paxton probably belongs in this group as well. Everyone else - up and down. But overall, better than the offense at plugging holes.
The big derailer was again the whole that had to be plugged. Health: Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Rodriguez. And luck/performance: Brasier, Bleier, Ort, etc. If Pivetta hadn't blipped early on, or if Kluber was even passible, we'd probably be in the thick of things now.
***
Anyway. Now we have credible players in just about every lineup spot, in the rotation, and in the pen.
So let's see.
Pretty much perfect summary of the season so far. I don't think it was unreasonable either to expect Kluber to have been better. To have expected Mondesi to return when he was first projected to be ready (end of May) and for Kiké to be able to competently hold down the fort until then. I don't think the back-up plan for 2B was great but Arroyo wasn't a terrible decision. For me..... that's really the only issue. So it comes down to injuries and then injuries to the back up plans and back-up back up plans etc..... the question is how did other teams in comparison do with injuries knowing that not all injuries are the same. Having 5/5 of your opening day rotation go down is pretty rough and Sale is still the giant in the room. You can't just sign another FA guy to "fix" that issue. It has to come from the farm or some great trades (which I don't think the Sox were deep enough to provide prospect capital for that)That's fair. I think though, that some of the results are about player depth and injury/performance:
***
From the lineup perspective: I tend to think that the club did a very good job with bringing in new talent, either as an intended MiL promotion, or via FA signings: Casas, Yoshida, Duvall, Turner.
However, the big de-railer was Story's injury, followed by Chang's injury, and Hernandez's ineffectiveness. It really just snowballed on them. And it's not like they didn't have hopes for a reasonable league-average production. If Hernandez (who is hitting just fine now, the git) had hit or fielded, or Chang, or Mondesi, or Valdez, or Hamilton, or Arroyo was his usual 100 OPS+ self, the season would look very different.
Of the emergency replacements, Duran was brilliant, but otherwise Reyes and Urias were the only two to go over the 90 OPS+ mark, and they were solutions acquired when many of the others had burned out or burned down. The rest were not great: Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Valdez, Chang, Hamilton. Don't get me wrong - it was very good emergency depth in places, but it was just emergency depth and used more than one would like.
***
From the pitching perspective it's far more volatile, often hinging on injury. Of the "new" talent, Jansen and Martin were great while Rodriguez and Mills were injured. Bleier and Kluber sucked. So, not so great on the evaluations there.
Of the emergency replacements or lower tier guys (loosely defined as not 100% in the offseason plan) we got some great showings out of: Winckowski, Bernardino, Murphy, Crawford. Paxton probably belongs in this group as well. Everyone else - up and down. But overall, better than the offense at plugging holes.
The big derailer was again the whole that had to be plugged. Health: Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Rodriguez. And luck/performance: Brasier, Bleier, Ort, etc. If Pivetta hadn't blipped early on, or if Kluber was even passible, we'd probably be in the thick of things now.
***
Anyway. Now we have credible players in just about every lineup spot, in the rotation, and in the pen.
So let's see.
I don't disagree with any of this, but still the team has committed 19 errors in the 25 games since the Kike trade and that out paces the 68 errors in the 100 games prior. As bad as the MI defense was, the team defense has gotten worse. If that continues to happen, especially on days that either the offense or pitching falters in close games they're sunk.That's fair. I think though, that some of the results are about player depth and injury/performance:
***
From the lineup perspective: I tend to think that the club did a very good job with bringing in new talent, either as an intended MiL promotion, or via FA signings: Casas, Yoshida, Duvall, Turner.
However, the big de-railer was Story's injury, followed by Chang's injury, and Hernandez's ineffectiveness. It really just snowballed on them. And it's not like they didn't have hopes for a reasonable league-average production. If Hernandez (who is hitting just fine now, the git) had hit or fielded, or Chang, or Mondesi, or Valdez, or Hamilton, or Arroyo was his usual 100 OPS+ self, the season would look very different.
Of the emergency replacements, Duran was brilliant, but otherwise Reyes and Urias were the only two to go over the 90 OPS+ mark, and they were solutions acquired when many of the others had burned out or burned down. The rest were not great: Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Valdez, Chang, Hamilton. Don't get me wrong - it was very good emergency depth in places, but it was just emergency depth and used more than one would like.
***
From the pitching perspective it's far more volatile, often hinging on injury. Of the "new" talent, Jansen and Martin were great while Rodriguez and Mills were injured. Bleier and Kluber sucked. So, not so great on the evaluations there.
Of the emergency replacements or lower tier guys (loosely defined as not 100% in the offseason plan) we got some great showings out of: Winckowski, Bernardino, Murphy, Crawford. Paxton probably belongs in this group as well. Everyone else - up and down. But overall, better than the offense at plugging holes.
The big derailer was again the whole that had to be plugged. Health: Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Rodriguez. And luck/performance: Brasier, Bleier, Ort, etc. If Pivetta hadn't blipped early on, or if Kluber was even passible, we'd probably be in the thick of things now.
***
Anyway. Now we have credible players in just about every lineup spot, in the rotation, and in the pen.
So let's see.
FWIW, here's everyone who has more than one error:I don't disagree with any of this, but still the team has committed 19 errors in the 25 games since the Kike trade and that out paces the 68 errors in the 100 games prior. As bad as the MI defense was, the team defense has gotten worse. If that continues to happen, especially on days that either the offense or pitching falters in close games they're sunk.
For those that aren't familiar with the source of that stat... the Sox are actually worse now at -54. Next worse are the Reds sitting at -23.
Casas is a work-in-progress and Yoshida has the wall complication, which skews defensive stats. So I'm not sure there's much that should be done, beyond coaching and taking the Fenway LF numbers with a grain of salt.Trading Kike brings it down to just -40, so it's still dead last and not even close. It's a fatal flaw that is one of the more difficult things to fix mid-season. Of the remaining players, the three worst defensive players are Yoshida, Devers, and Casas who collectively are at -25.
Looking at an earlier post, I realize I can come off pretty Pollyanna in my Devers D takes. What gives me some optimism is I thought he gave more effort this year but without results: sadly he simply ended up fumbin' bumblin' stumblin' the ball around too much. The range and arm are admittedly not great, but I believe adequate for an 850+ ops 3rd baseman if he sorts those yips. OAA numbers coming in look rough (-4) on Devers but just a little more attention to detail and ideally a full season of reliable defense from Story and whomever up the middle and a little more vacuum than masonry at 1st. Analyzing would be tricky, but I can imagine a snowball rolling down the hill dynamic, where everyone is pressing, on a team with such monstrously epically bad defense.Casas is a work-in-progress and Yoshida has the wall complication, which skews defensive stats. So I'm not sure there's much that should be done, beyond coaching and taking the Fenway LF numbers with a grain of salt.
Devers may well be what he is at this point. Although players can sometimes improve (e.g., Xander). But again, this comes down to coaching.
(Also, as a bright note, if you sort on Savant for smaller samples, Story is already at +2.)
Agreed on Casas. Let's hope for a Wade Boggs-type curve when it comes to fielding for him.Casas is a work-in-progress and Yoshida has the wall complication, which skews defensive stats. So I'm not sure there's much that should be done, beyond coaching and taking the Fenway LF numbers with a grain of salt.
Devers may well be what he is at this point. Although players can sometimes improve (e.g., Xander). But again, this comes down to coaching.
(Also, as a bright note, if you sort on Savant for smaller samples, Story is already at +2.)
I have been fairly realistic about this team all season. Hopeful and supportive, but realistic. I stated last week that winning series is a must, but realistically the team also is going to need to sweep some series to augment that and to make up for any series that they lose. We're at the point where outpacing the competition is going to have to replace keeping pace with the competition. I agree with the bolded above and the realist in me asks that if that is the case, how likely is winning the next two series vs the Dodgers and Astros? What if they take the next 2 in Houston, walk away 3-3 in the next two series and somehow go 5-5 in this 10 game stretch? If everyone in front of you goes 5-5 during that time you've kept pace. How likely is that? It's still possible to gain ground on Houston but you now have to go 5-0 in the remaining games vs them and pray that Detroit can sweep the Astros while you're hoping to take 2 of 3 vs the Dodgers. Again, how likely? I haven't mentioned Seattle in this equation because their schedule looks to be of no help to the Sox. The Blue Jays are once again four games ahead of Boston and while the Sox have three games head to head left with Toronto, the Jays have a nice 12 game stretch coming up against Washington, Colorado, Oakland and Kansas City. During that same stretch the Sox face Houston, Kansas City, Tampa and Baltimore. The Red Sox are going to need some Morgan Magic if they're going to get into the playoffs this season. My hopes for the team this season was for them to play good, competitive baseball. While their record suggests that they have, the flaws have been quite evident. Injuries surely hit the team hard and have played a role in all of this. There have certainly been bright spots and IMO, reason to watch and follow the team. But at the end of the day, though they are not out of it until they are out of it, the realist in me is looking at the larger picture. There are three teams that Boston needs help from and it seems that two of them are going to have to fail miserably while the Sox play at a pace that looks nearly impossible given what we've been seeing. Each day that they don't gain ground makes it just that much more difficult as it is also another day closer to the end of the season. You're on the clock Boston, go out fighting.Pretty horrifying last two days. But I think everyone here agreed a sweep and even 3/4 was unlikely. Figure out a way to take the next two and they’re still plan an okay spot.
All immediate rivals winning though last night- now 5 games out. They need to close that gap to 3 by the end of the month and it’s not looking good…. Not impossible but not good.
I'm pretty much with you. Overall, success in a single baseball season is leveraging your talent to accrue more marginal wins than other teams. But you have a finite number of games in the season to do that in.I have been fairly realistic about this team all season. Hopeful and supportive, but realistic. I stated last week that winning series is a must, but realistically the team also is going to need to sweep some series to augment that and to make up for any series that they lose. We're at the point where outpacing the competition is going to have to replace keeping pace with the competition. I agree with the bolded above and the realist in me asks that if that is the case, how likely is winning the next two series vs the Dodgers and Astros? What if they take the next 2 in Houston, walk away 3-3 in the next two series and somehow go 5-5 in this 10 game stretch? If everyone in front of you goes 5-5 during that time you've kept pace. How likely is that? It's still possible to gain ground on Houston but you now have to go 5-0 in the remaining games vs them and pray that Detroit can sweep the Astros while you're hoping to take 2 of 3 vs the Dodgers. Again, how likely? I haven't mentioned Seattle in this equation because their schedule looks to be of no help to the Sox. The Blue Jays are once again four games ahead of Boston and while the Sox have three games head to head left with Toronto, the Jays have a nice 12 game stretch coming up against Washington, Colorado, Oakland and Kansas City. During that same stretch the Sox face Houston, Kansas City, Tampa and Baltimore. The Red Sox are going to need some Morgan Magic if they're going to get into the playoffs this season. My hopes for the team this season was for them to play good, competitive baseball. While their record suggests that they have, the flaws have been quite evident. Injuries surely hit the team hard and have played a role in all of this. There have certainly been bright spots and IMO, reason to watch and follow the team. But at the end of the day, though they are not out of it until they are out of it, the realist in me is looking at the larger picture. There are three teams that Boston needs help from and it seems that two of them are going to have to fail miserably while the Sox play at a pace that looks nearly impossible given what we've been seeing. Each day that they don't gain ground makes it just that much more difficult as it is also another day closer to the end of the season. You're on the clock Boston, go out fighting.
Yeah, I think you're right about the deep season mentality thing. There is some value in that approach, BUT it can become a bit of a trap as the season wears on. We still have 100 games left, we still have 75 games left, we still have 50 games left....but so do the teams in front of you and as the season wears on you find yourself increasingly dependent on what the other teams do in their remaining games. You have to find some level of compromise or flexibility in your plan at certain points of what seem to be winnable games. Winnable being a combination of the opponent you're facing and/or in game situation when you're up or down by a run or two.I'm pretty much with you. Overall, success in a single baseball season is leveraging your talent to accrue more marginal wins than other teams. But you have a finite number of games in the season to do that in.
I think Cora's often misled by a deep season mentality or a 2018 hangover. His patience with players has its upsides, and he's able to keep the club largely rested. The downside is that he seems to end up holding out for a late-season hot-streak to fix things. 2019, 2022 (to a degree), and this year.
I can't say his normal strategy with the pitching staff is irrational. But it's not a winning strategy. As we've seen all season, and especially in the last two games. 1) He leaves Paxton in too long, even though he had Murphy in the pen. 2) He pulls Houck for Winck, then goes to Love-ra (not that there weren't errors also.) He just can't seem to pick up those extra wins, and he usually won't commit his best pitchers in ties or mildly trailing games. As if all ties or mildly trailing games were the same.
Moreover, whatever he and the coaches are doing is generally not working. The defense is bad (and in Dever's case has been bad for years). The offense can sometimes just appear not to show up against scrub pitchers. Whether that's just streakiness or trying to implement the wrong plan. . .who knows? But the inconsistency is notable. Is bone-headed play something that just goes away in August/September? (Because now it somehow matters more?) Or is it something that should have been addressed in Spring Training? Or April/May?
Last two nights are clear evidence of this. Plus the Astro's are a very smart team and they kept the pressure on the Sox and the Sox continued to cough up runs on mistakes. Doing what they need to do is already difficult enough, it's impossible when you can't manage the fundamentals.Boneheadedness...I've been fairly vocal about the baserunning and errors, but at times the team really seems to struggle with fundamentals. IMO these things should be addressed on a CONTINUAL basis.