'23 AL Playoff Picture

[TFisNEXT]

I met Manila. Great guy. Huge fan and unfairly dumped on for what was an interesting idea

btw - the year he was a huge optimist? 2004

I was still a lurker back in 2004, but I remember how optimistic he was that summer when the Red Sox were kind of floundering a bit in that 60-51 or 62-54 type record range a bit before the MFY series at Fenway.
I was often eternally optimistic back then too and I remember liking his posts.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Manila was all over the Win If For thread and helped me with some lurkers who submitted things to him - which I then passed on.
Hw once told me that his favorite quote came from Oscar Wilde: “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.”

 

[Ale Xander]

I would be very happy if both TX teams miss the playoffs

My preference is different m

Red Sox
Orioles
Rangers
(Angels lol)
Astros

Everyone else

Meteor

(MFY)

 

[Niastri]

Manila was all over the Win If For thread and helped me with some lurkers who submitted things to him - which I then passed on.
Hw once told me that his favorite quote came from Oscar Wilde: “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.”

Holy smokes, I get teary eyed just hearing the title "win it for..."

I need to go back and reread that thread if I'm ever having a really bad day.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sox again blew a chance to gain a full game.
Seattle jumps over Houston and TX to take the West lead.
Rangers hold the 2nd WC.
Astros the 3rd.
Jays are 1.5 out, Sox still at 3.5.
The good news is that the Sox have games against all 3 teams directly in front of them.
IMO, they still need to be 3 or less games out at the end of the month but they can’t keep pissing away these chances. Take the next two against LA and 2/3 from Houston and that should set them up at 2.5 back

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

FWIW, Houston's schedule eases up significantly after the series against Boston. They have one series each against Texas and Seattle, but other than that it's mostly teams who aren't in the hunt and then a Baltimore team who quite possibly will have already punched its playoff ticket. They do finish against the D-Backs who will probably still be fighting for that last NL WC spot.

EDIT: OTOH, the Mariners and Rangers have seven games against each other in the last two weeks of the season, so maybe the WC is irrelevant to the Astros.

 

[LogansDad]

FWIW, Houston's schedule eases up significantly after the series against Boston. They have one series each against Texas and Seattle, but other than that it's mostly teams who aren't in the hunt and then a Baltimore team who quite possibly will have already punched its playoff ticket. They do finish against the D-Backs who will probably still be fighting for that last NL WC spot.

EDIT: OTOH, the Mariners and Rangers have seven games against each other in the last two weeks of the season, so maybe the WC is irrelevant to the Astros.

And that's the biggest issue with needing to pass two teams, is that there are a lot of nights the rest of the way where at least one of them is guaranteed to win because they are facing each other.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

And that's the biggest issue with needing to pass two teams, is that there are a lot of nights the rest of the way where at least one of them is guaranteed to win because they are facing each other.

FWIW, one of them is also guaranteed to lose.

 

[LogansDad]

FWIW, one of them is also guaranteed to lose.

Right, which would be incredibly useful if you only had to pass one of them. Really need to get ahead of Toronto soon.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

FWIW, one of them is also guaranteed to lose.

Is the Ideal scenario that one team completely dominates the other thereby knocking them out completely or both teams to evenly split?
I know…. Sox win 10 straight

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Right, which would be incredibly useful if you only had to pass one of them. Really need to get ahead of Toronto soon.

See, I still think it's incredibly useful. Obviously, the given is that the Sox have to win a lot of games. But since they're chasing, the only way this doesn't help is if all the teams ahead of them win as well. The guaranteed losses mean that all three teams can't go on a heater at the same time as the Sox.
It's probably all just perspective, but I'm a big believer that if the Sox get hot, things take care of themselves. Sort of like how Seattle now finds themselves in first place.

 

[TFisNEXT]

See, I still think it's incredibly useful. Obviously, the given is that the Sox have to win a lot of games. But since they're chasing, the only way this doesn't help is if all the teams ahead of them win as well. The guaranteed losses mean that all three teams can't go on a heater at the same time as the Sox.
It's probably all just perspective, but I'm a big believer that if the Sox get hot, things take care of themselves. Sort of like how Seattle now finds themselves in first place.

Agreed. Scoreboard watching is going to happen and losses by those teams help of course, but the Red Sox really need to run off a streak of 12 out of 15 or something like that and things become a lot more plausible.

Sure, there’s a path to gaining several games in the standings if they only go 9-6 instead of 12-3…but it’s way harder. They are going to need a real winning streak at some point.

 

[NYCSox]

I think at some point Seattle will face a major league team again this season - I think.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I think at some point Seattle will face a major league team again this season - I think.

They’re at least beating the teams they should be beating….
I imagine that if the Sox played all the teams below them at a .666 winning pct they have 3-4 additional wins

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sox dropped a game further out…. Now at 4.5 with all the ALW teams winning.
Jays lose- now 2.5 out.
Tough dropping 2/3 to LAD. Final 3 of the month against Houston. I maintain they need to be 3 out at a minimum on 9/1. If they can take 2/3 this series they’d be 3.5 so a sweep is basically required.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Toronto and Texas lost very winnable games today, and the Red Sox have 3 games left against both (albeit all on the road). Having both of them continue to slump to the point of WC3 being 86-88 wins is probably the best path the Red Sox have to sneaking in.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Seattle gained 8 games and overtook Texas in the past 10 games

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Seattle gained 8 games and overtook Texas in the past 10 games

So Houston is definitely winning that division.

 

[YTF]

At this point it's of little solace to know who has how many games left and with which opponents. The fact is that all of that was true a week ago and the Sox are now 1 1/2 games further out of the WC than they were a week ago. Plain and simple, the Sox have to go on a winning streak They have to win games, they need to sweep a few series and still hope for some help. Every day they are a day closer to elimination and they can't avoid that by winning 3 of 5 games.

 

[donutogre]

It’s true, 3-4 in the 10-game grinder so far is not going to cut it.

 

[Beale13]

Taking 2 of 3 from Houston in this next series makes us 5-5 for the toughest stretch of the entire season and keeps us three games back from them along with ownership of their tie breaker. Not to mention the gift the Rangers might be giving us. I’d have taken that scenario in a heartbeat if offered it seven games ago. Of course we actually have to go 2 for 3.

 

[LogansDad]

Yep, these next 3 games will go a long way toward deciding the season. Got the right pitchers going in games 1 and 2, though.

 

[YTF]

Taking 2 of 3 from Houston in this next series makes us 5-5 for the toughest stretch of the entire season and keeps us three games back from them along with ownership of their tie breaker. Not to mention the gift the Rangers might be giving us. I’d have taken that scenario in a heartbeat if offered it seven games ago. Of course we actually have to go 2 for 3.

Three and a half games I believe, which would be a half game further back than they were when that 10 game stretch started. No doubt it would be a step in the right direction, but 2 of 3 may not be enough.

 

[shawnrbu]

The Astros have 12 games remaining with last place teams Oakland, Royals and Yankees. 9 of the 12 in Houston. A sweep seems necessary to have realistic hopes of catching the Astros.

 

[bosockboy]

Beating Toronto and Texas might be the likeliest path.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Beating Toronto and Texas might be the likeliest path.

It’s really for one of the ALW teams to completely collapse (which would be part of the Sox sweeping TX) and for the Sox to continue beating the Jays.
somehow the Rangers and Jays end up outside the playoffs.

 

[AB in DC]

Only four AL teams have won more than 5 of their last 10.

Seattle 9
Tampa 8
Baltimore 7
Boston 6

 

[JM3]

Remaining SOS for AL Playoff contenders:

Rays .536
Red Sox .529
Orioles .504
Rangers .502
Mariners .500
Blue Jays .473
Astros .466

Ignoring the AL Central which is its own thing.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

 

[YTF]

It’s really for one of the ALW teams to completely collapse (which would be part of the Sox sweeping TX) and for the Sox to continue beating the Jays.
somehow the Rangers and Jays end up outside the playoffs.

There are 16 games between now and the Jays series. The Texas series follows that and then there are just nine games remaining on the schedule. I think they need to be at least within a game or two heading into those series.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Trying my hand at the remaining schedule...

LEFT: 31 games, 69-62

HOU (3): 1-2 -> 70-64
@KC (3): 3-0 -> 73-64
@TB (3): 1-2 -> 74-66
BAL (3): 2-1 -> 76-67
NYY (4): 4-0 -> 80-67
@TOR (3): 2-1 -> 82-68
@TEX (3): 2-1 -> 84-69
CWS (3): 3-0 -> 87-69
TB (2): 1-1 -> 88-70
BAL (4): 2-2 -> 90-72

See what sweeping the remaining bad teams gives you as a buffer?

Realistically they do drop 3-5 games of KC, NYY and CWS, because this is what they've done all year against bad teams, and then that is going to be curtains because that caps you at 85-87 wins even when going 4-2 on the TOR-TEX road trip AND maintaining.500 against the Rays & O's.

 

[LynnRice75]

Trying my hand at the remaining schedule...

LEFT: 31 games, 69-62

HOU (3): 1-2 -> 70-64
@KC (3): 3-0 -> 73-64
@TB (3): 1-2 -> 74-66
BAL (3): 2-1 -> 76-67
NYY (4): 4-0 -> 80-67
@TOR (3): 2-1 -> 82-68
@TEX (3): 2-1 -> 84-69
CWS (3): 3-0 -> 87-69
TB (2): 1-1 -> 88-70
BAL (4): 2-2 -> 90-72

See what sweeping the remaining bad teams gives you as a buffer?

Realistically they do drop 3-5 games of KC, NYY and CWS, because this is what they've done all year against bad teams, and then that is going to be curtains because that caps you at 85-87 wins even when going 4-2 on the TOR-TEX road trip AND maintaining.500 against the Rays & O's.

Individually, these predictions seem achievable and even realistic.
Collectively though, it's hard to believe we've any real chance of ending up 19 games over .500 when we have hovered a handful of games over (and under) for much of the year.
That said, I will continue to hope for a win streak and a collapse by one (or more) of the teams above us.
Winning the next 3 vs Houston contributes to both scenarios.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Nice to see @DeadlySplitter joining me in gaming out what the Sox have to do to get to 90 wins and a shot at a playoff berth.

While they still have a hope, I'm going to update this after each series.

I originally assumed they need 89 wins to catch the Jays and make the playoffs. Now that the Mariners have passed the Jays (and now tied the Astros) taken over the lead in the West, I think it takes a minimum of 90 wins to get in. And if they get to 90 but don't make it in, sure it will be disappointing, but it will also be more than most of us expected coming into the season.
So how do the Sox get to 90 wins? They needed to go 28-16 (.636), +12, over the last 44 games, when I started this. After losing the series to the Dodgers they now they need to go 21-10 (.677) over the final 31 games. Here's a possible path:
Just win, baby! The rest will take care of itself.

Thanks to everybody who shared their thoughts on the "Manila Metric" and its creator after my last update. I felt some real camaraderie in those posts, which I think is what we're all here for. Cheers.

This next month, along with the past couple weeks, is the playoffs for the Sox. And even though they can't afford many more losses, I was down with Cora not going all out to win game 3 with the Dodgers. Just had to win one of those, so after Saturday it became much more important to save the bullets for the Astros series. LET'S GO!!!

after 8/13 (62-56)
8/14 off
8/15-17 ... 3 @ Nats ... 2-1 (64-57) ... 1-2 (63-58)
8/18-20 ... 3 @ Yankees ... 2-1 (66-58) ... 3-0 (66-58) Back on track sweep!
8/21-24 ... 4 @ Astros ... 2-2 (68-60) ... On track
8/25-27 ... 3 vs Dodgers ... 1-2 (69-62) ... I'm not happy it turned out this way, but still on track
8/28-30 ... 3 vs Astros ... 2-1 (71-63)
8/31 off day
9/1-3 ... 3 @ Royals ... 3-0 (74-63) {changed from original 2-1 in order to get to 90 wins}
9/4-6 ... 3 @ Rays ... 2-1 (76-64)
9/7 off day
9/8-10 ... 3 vs Orioles ... 2-1 (78-65)
9/11-14 ... 4 vs Yankees ... 3-1 (81-66)
9/15-17 ... 3 @ Blue Jays ... 2-1 (83-67)
9/18-20 ... 3 @ Rangers ... 1-2 (84-69)
9/21 off day
9/22-24 ... 3 vs White Sox ... 3-0 (87-69)
9/25 off day
9/26-27 ... 2 vs Rays ... 1-1 (88-70)
9/28-10/1 ... 4 @ Orioles ... 2-2 (90-72)

 

[Strike4]

Just by the way baseball is played, it's just really hard for a "pretty good" team like the Red Sox to flip those series wins here and there against either really good or really bad teams. The Dodgers are an elite MLB team right now with expected wins at about 98. Taking 2 of 3, even at home, is a challenge. Taking 2 of 3 at home vs. the Astros is certainly more within reach. Same with sweeping bad teams - the Red Sox are too leaky to sweep the Royals or ChiSox, even at home.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Just by the way baseball is played, it's just really hard for a "pretty good" team like the Red Sox to flip those series wins here and there against either really good or really bad teams. The Dodgers are an elite MLB team right now with expected wins at about 98. Taking 2 of 3, even at home, is a challenge. Taking 2 of 3 at home vs. the Astros is certainly more within reach. Same with sweeping bad teams - the Red Sox are too leaky to sweep the Royals or ChiSox, even at home.

For sure, doing what they've been doing is going to yield similar results.
It's time for them to be better than they've been, or to be the best they can be -- their 90th percentile selves rather than their 50th percentile selves.
They've had an 8 game winning streak and several 4-5 game winning streaks. They need to find a couple of those, and even out the low spots.
It is possible. But yeah, they have to tighten up and stop those leaks.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

For sure, doing what they've been doing is going to yield similar results.
It's time for them to be better than they've been, or to be the best they can be -- their 90th percentile selves rather than their 50th percentile selves.
They've had an 8 game winning streak and several 4-5 game winning streaks. They need to find a couple of those, and even out the low spots.
It is possible. But yeah, they have to tighten up and stop those leaks.

They also have the best version of the team right now and the returning players should be adjusted by this point.
Health and exhaustion figures in to every team so there really is no more reasonable excuses

 

[Strike4]

They also have the best version of the team right now and the returning players should be adjusted by this point.
Health and exhaustion figures in to every team so there really is no more reasonable excuses

And there's always the defense...

 

[sezwho]

And there's always the defense...

Having a very strong SS now, instead of the worst one in MLB, is part of that ‘best version’. I also think Casas has shown a little improvement second half. Maybe Devers can bury the glove like a bad game ball and start fresh?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Hoping that Houston used up all their runs they were planning on using for this series on yesterday's blowout win.

 

[Rasputin]

On July 27, 1999, the Red Sox played the Blue Jays. Bret Saberhagen started for the Sox and David Wells did so for the Jays. Wells pitched four innings, allowing seven runs before being relieved by Roy Halladay. Saberhagen pitched 3.1 innings, allowing seven runs. The Sox end up winning the game 11-9, but the bullpen was torched.

In some online forum or other (AoL, Projo, SoSH, or god knows what) I said, "It's baseball. For all we know, Pat Rapp is going to throw a complete game shutout tomorrow."

For those who don't remember Pat Rapp, he wasn't good. He was that guy at the end of the rotation you could trust to go five but you knew you'd have to score some runs to win.

On July 28, 1999, Pat Rapp pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out six.

So believe me when I say that for all we know, the Red Sox are going to sweep the Astros.

 

[8slim]

"Be plausibly in playoff contention heading into Labor Day weekend". That was my minimum expectation for this season. If the Sox don't win tonight and tomorrow then they won't meet that expectation. Pretty cut-and-dried at this point.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

"Be plausibly in playoff contention heading into Labor Day weekend". That was my minimum expectation for this season. If the Sox don't win tonight and tomorrow then they won't meet that expectation. Pretty cut-and-dried at this point.

3.5 back is doable…. 6.5? Nope. It’s over. He’ll even 5.5 is over IMO. They need these two.
The Sox put the nail in the coffin on the Yankees season, only getting 1/3 or less here and Houston does it to the Sox.

 

[8slim]

It’s over, Johnny.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It’s over, Johnny.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

They would probably have to get to at least 90 wins to even have a chance at the final Wild Card spot.

So 21-8 the rest of the way.

 

[8slim]

I’m bummed. I don’t think my expectation was at all unreasonable. This team needs to hit on a *lot* of its young talent that hasn’t come up yet. Starting next year. 2024 is make or break for Bloom.

 

[Benj4ever]

Having a very strong SS now, instead of the worst one in MLB, is part of that ‘best version’. I also think Casas has shown a little improvement second half. Maybe Devers can bury the glove like a bad game ball and start fresh?

Coming up small in two of the biggest games this year? Not a good look for Devers. Neither is just lying on the ground after he almost make a really good grab.

 

[Sin Duda]

Coming up small in two of the biggest games this year? Not a good look for Devers. Neither is just lying on the ground after he almost make a really good grab.

No one likes it when they lose and the season is circling the drain, but please drop the "just lying on the ground" shit, for crissakes. Devers isn't dogging it. And he's not "coming up small". Baseball is very, very hard.

 

[Max Power]

You can say he's not dogging it, but he absolutely is coming up small. 5-25 with 3 RBI and a few errors over the last week in games the team really needed to win is not coming up big.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

No one likes it when they lose and the season is circling the drain, but please drop the "just lying on the ground" shit, for crissakes. Devers isn't dogging it. And he's not "coming up small". Baseball is very, very hard.

Aside from the Yankees series he's hit .240 with four homers and five doubles since the ASB. His only three RBI in the past eight days came in a 17-1 game. He was given a long extension because that hard job is easier for him than 99% of all that do it. Him not doing that job at the most important time of the year is the very definition of "coming up small".

 

[Benj4ever]

No one likes it when they lose and the season is circling the drain, but please drop the "just lying on the ground" shit, for crissakes. Devers isn't dogging it. And he's not "coming up small". Baseball is very, very hard.

I have never, ever, in over 40 years of watching baseball seen anyone disrespect the game like that. I don't care whether he's "dogging it" or not. You. Just. Don't. Do. That....Unless, of course, you've just broken your ankle and you're writhing around in pain. It's not how the game is played, and it never should be.