4/10/2024 - Uwasawa today's games?

[JM3]

BLEIS

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778229200148697398

 

[JM3]

Sena came in & allowed 1 run in 2.1 IP on 2 hits & 2 walks, striking out 4.

& then Jonathan Brand, who I thought pitched an inning yesterday but it was actually Sunday & I only wrote about it this morning, came in & pitched 3 perfect innings, striking out 3.

In 3 games this season Brand...

5 IP
0 runs
0 hits
0 walks
8 k's

Great minds...

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778231494328098903

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778218190012596486


Dean threw 55 pitches, 39 strikes (70.9%).

& Francis Hernandez came in for the 5th & immediately proved that Delmarva can actually hit by allowing 2 runs on 4 hits. Thx Francis.

Francis allowed a homer in his 2nd inning of work to further drive home the point, but pitched a scoreless 7th.

Denis Reguillo on for the 8th up 5-3.

 

[JM3]

Cade Feeney pitched a 1-2-3 9th for Greenville, who is down 5-1 headed to the bottom of the 9th & have 3 hits all game.

 

[JM3]

Cade Feeney pitched a 1-2-3 9th for Greenville, who is down 5-1 headed to the bottom of the 9th & have 3 hits all game.

Greenville whimpers to the finish.

Chacon was 1-2 with a triple, a walk, a steal & the run.

Ravelo was 1-4 with a double.

Tyler Miller was 1-3.

The other 6 guys were 0-21 with 11 strikeouts & 0 walks with 2 errors & a PB.

 

[JM3]

Francis allowed a homer in his 2nd inning of work to further drive home the point, but pitched a scoreless 7th.

Denis Reguillo on for the 8th up 5-3.

Every time someone pitches badly for either Salem or Greenville I get mad about LDLR all over again.

Reguillo walked 5 guys in a row to tie the game up at 5 in the 8th.

Royman Blanco who also makes me smh is in to try to get out of the jam.

 

[JM3]

Blanco struck out the 1st hitter & then fell behind the next 3-1... but got a called strike & a pitch timer violation to get out of the jam.

 

[nvalvo]

I had him 25th in October when SP had him 48.

Prescient. The numbers have been good the whole time, but it's pretty exciting if the metrics start catching up with that.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Campbell projects more as a corner outfielder than anything, but yeah, low k-rates. Doesn't turn 22 until June & raked last season after being drafted, both in FCL & in High-A, including carrying the offense in the championship playoff run for Greenville.

I've been wondering since last year why guys aren't higher on him. Super twitchy, great frame, came from a good program, good eye, good bat to ball skills, pedigree. Even before this holy shit power came about, I've seen him as a guy who could be in AA before we know it.

 

[LogansDad]

Wish anything good would have happened in here tonight to offset the suck in the MLB game.

 

[JM3]

Wish anything good would have happened in here tonight to offset the suck in the MLB game.

I have news!

(It's not thaaaat exciting)

 

[JM3]

Blanco struck out the 1st hitter & then fell behind the next 3-1... but got a called strike & a pitch timer violation to get out of the jam.

Salem scored 4 runs in the top of the 9th & Blanco pitched a scoreless bottom of the 9th & Salem won 9-5.

 

[JM3]

Salem scored 4 runs in the top of the 9th & Blanco pitched a scoreless bottom of the 9th & Salem won 9-5.

Bleis was 1-4 with a triple & a walk & a steal.

Jhostynxon was 2-4 with a homer & a walk.

Nelly T was 2-4 with a walk.

Yute was 2-5 with a triple.

Stanley Tucker was 1-5 with a double.

AA was 0-3 with 2 walks.

Juan Montero was 0-1 with 3 walks.

Andy Lugo was 1-4.

 

[JM3]

Prescient. The numbers have been good the whole time, but it's pretty exciting if the metrics start catching up with that.

I think that's kind of the idea of ranking prospects...figuring out how good they are going to be as accurately as possible as quickly as possible.

I feel pretty good that I've been ahead of SP by a lot on most of the big risers like Campbell & Arias (& the big fallers).

I need to figure out other things like why does the org hate players like LDLR & Johnfrank to really finetune my process, though.

I've been wondering since last year why guys aren't higher on him. Super twitchy, great frame, came from a good program, good eye, good bat to ball skills, pedigree. Even before this holy shit power came about, I've seen him as a guy who could be in AA before we know it.

Yeah... it's weird to me that the narrative is that he somehow became so much better over the off season that now he's a significantly better baseball player than he was before.

I think it's more that they just weren't really paying attention to him, & now they are. I don't doubt he's made some strides forward, but not in a manner that I find unexpected.

Just like when Yordanny gets healthy & finds a fastball that works better & he jumps into the top 10 it won't be some unexpected omg how did that happen thing.

 

[JM3]

This makes me curious... going to look at the rankings where I greatly differ from SP from August 2023 (since that's my 1st full every prospect in the org list) & see whether my list is more predictive of their current rankings or if mine is.

Going to do say a difference of 3 or more in top 10, 4 or more in top 20, 5 or more in top 30, etc.

They're going to be ranked by their current SP rank. The 1st # after the name will be their August ranking & the 2nd will be mine.

#6 Yoely 15/7 - Pretty clear W here

#7 Abreu 23/19 - W

#11 Yorke 6/9 - W

#13 Nazzan 9/14 - W

#14 Meidroth 16/21 - I still think they're wrong: L

#15 Castro 24/31 - I think they're too high on him, but I was way too low: L

#16 Blaze 19/15 - W

#17 Hickey 18/23 - Meh. Mixed feelings about this one. He's hitting well this year, but 0 future as a catcher: L

#21 Yordanny 29/10 - I still think they're wrong on this one, but it's getting closer lol: L

#22 KCamp 54/43 - W

#23 ERC 25/38 - Seems poor on my part: L

#24 Dobbins 32/20 - W

#25 Arias 45/26 - W

#28 Guerrero 31/18 - I might have been a bit irrational on this one at the time: L

#29 Bastardo 34/27 - W

#30 Blizzard 22/64 - They're still tripping: L

#31 Hoppe 33/70 - I was tripping: L

#33 Alcantara 28/48 - I still think I'm right & they're tripping: L

#43 Brannon 36/30 - Stupid injuries: L

#45 Walter 13/44 - Big W

#51 Yuten 44/34 - For now, L

#52 Starlyn NR/37 - This feels like a win, but I guess it's technically a push.

#57 I Coffey 48/24 - 24 a bit irrational. Think they're tripping, though: L

Honorary mention to Shane Drohan who I had 16 & they had 11. He was #15 in their November rankings, so would have been a win.

Unfortunately I had Stephen Scott #28 & they had him 41. When they released him, I had him 52 & they had him 42, but this would have been a loss.

I had Ryan Fernandez 35 & they had him 27. He wasn't in their top 30 in November, so sounds like it would have been a win.

So I'm closer on 10 & less close on 12 to their own rankings, some of which I still don't really agree with. Not bad.

 

[JM3]

Fernandez was 31 on their end of year list, so that one would actually be a push.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

The ranking of Hamilton and whether he’s a “win” or not is interesting. I mean, if he plays this whole year and doesn’t puke on himself, he clearly has value over many others. However, The likelihood that he ever is a serious part of the big club is questionable.

I suppose it’s the whole floor/ceiling debate.

 

[JM3]

The ranking of Hamilton and whether he’s a “win” or not is interesting. I mean, if he plays this whole year and doesn’t puke on himself, he clearly has value over many others. However, The likelihood that he ever is a serious part of the big club is questionable.

I suppose it’s the whole floor/ceiling debate.

It's definitely not a win for me if he's a competent MLB player. & I obviously hope to be wrong.

But yeah, to some extent it's how one weighs the upside of being a good MLB player, even if it's unlikely vs. the ability to get there.

I think my primary issue with Blizzard is that despite having 92nd percentile sprint speed, he still has below average range, which to me shows a fundamental lack of baseball instincts. Like he's a fast guy who happens to play baseball more so than being a baseball player who happens to be fast?

 

[JM3]

Here's the Bleis double play throw & a couple hits from the 4-run Salem 9th.

View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778244092553560289


View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778239579176239308


View: https://twitter.com/Hunter_Noll/status/1778241284978696463


I've been enjoying the Nelly T experience, but not a Stanley T believer. Yet.

Also, why are we sending Feliz there with one out?

 

[simplicio]

I've always been a little surprised they never took the Duran route with Hamilton and tried him in the OF.

 

[JM3]

I've always been a little surprised they never took the Duran route with Hamilton and tried him in the OF.

He played 2 games in CF for Portland in '22 & 6 games in CF for Worcester last year.

My guess is he just wasn't any good at it & his poor baseball instincts were exacerbated by having to cover more space. Combined with a weaker arm. But who knows?

They also have more org depth in the OF than the MI so all else being equal, he would also be more valuable to the pre-Mayer Red Sox in MI than in the OF.

 

[thestardawg]

This makes me curious... going to look at the rankings where I greatly differ from SP from August 2023 (since that's my 1st full every prospect in the org list) & see whether my list is more predictive of their current rankings or if mine is.

Going to do say a difference of 3 or more in top 10, 4 or more in top 20, 5 or more in top 30, etc.

They're going to be ranked by their current SP rank. The 1st # after the name will be their August ranking & the 2nd will be mine.

#6 Yoely 15/7 - Pretty clear W here

#7 Abreu 23/19 - W

#11 Yorke 6/9 - W

#13 Nazzan 9/14 - W

#14 Meidroth 16/21 - I still think they're wrong: L

#15 Castro 24/31 - I think they're too high on him, but I was way too low: L

#16 Blaze 19/15 - W

#17 Hickey 18/23 - Meh. Mixed feelings about this one. He's hitting well this year, but 0 future as a catcher: L

#21 Yordanny 29/10 - I still think they're wrong on this one, but it's getting closer lol: L

#22 KCamp 54/43 - W

#23 ERC 25/38 - Seems poor on my part: L

#24 Dobbins 32/20 - W

#25 Arias 45/26 - W

#28 Guerrero 31/18 - I might have been a bit irrational on this one at the time: L

#29 Bastardo 34/27 - W

#30 Blizzard 22/64 - They're still tripping: L

#31 Hoppe 33/70 - I was tripping: L

#33 Alcantara 28/48 - I still think I'm right & they're tripping: L

#43 Brannon 36/30 - Stupid injuries: L

#45 Walter 13/44 - Big W

#51 Yuten 44/34 - For now, L

#52 Starlyn NR/37 - This feels like a win, but I guess it's technically a push.

#57 I Coffey 48/24 - 24 a bit irrational. Think they're tripping, though: L

Honorary mention to Shane Drohan who I had 16 & they had 11. He was #15 in their November rankings, so would have been a win.

Unfortunately I had Stephen Scott #28 & they had him 41. When they released him, I had him 52 & they had him 42, but this would have been a loss.

I had Ryan Fernandez 35 & they had him 27. He wasn't in their top 30 in November, so sounds like it would have been a win.

So I'm closer on 10 & less close on 12 to their own rankings, some of which I still don't really agree with. Not bad.

I dont understand your constant need to validate yourself on prospects.

These guys have a smidge more experience ranking prospects. You are throwing darts based on your reading of stat lines.

 

[JM3]

I dont understand your constant need to validate yourself on prospects.

These guys have a smidge more experience ranking prospects. You are throwing darts based on your reading of stat lines.

I'm competitive & take things I spend time on seriously. I'm always trying to figure out where my process could be better.

If you think all I'm doing is throwing darts based on statlines, you're definitely welcome to your opinion.

I think the fact that my rankings from August are about as predictive of SP's rankings now as SP's own rankings from August are should show there's at least some merit to what I'm doing, but YMMV.

Especially considering they are the ones with actual sources & like you said, have been doing this a lot longer than me, go to games in person, etc.

But I love what they do & do not mean to disrespect them. They are an invaluable resource & awesome. I just disagree with some of their rankings at any given time.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I dont understand your constant need to validate yourself on prospects.

These guys have a smidge more experience ranking prospects. You are throwing darts based on your reading of stat lines.

So he can’t have an opinion? Seems to me his rankings have held up very well. And I, like JM, very much vale the work Sox Prospects does. Weird comment.