AFC Playoffs into December

wilked

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Rounding into December, 5 games to go.

AFC East: Dolphins win their 6th in a row and refuse to go away quietly. They still play the Patriots on New Years Day. They have @BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF before that. Three road games, two in cold weather, not easy, but I am not ready to declare the AFC East sewn up until either the Pats win out or the Fins lose one more.

1st Rd BYE: Patriots have a 3 game lead on AFC North/South with 5 to go, I am satisfied enough to write them into a bye for now. They should be sitting at home for the first week of the playoffs. Home field throughout is still in question though. The Raiders are the obvious threat with the same record, but the hope as always is that the AFC West beat up on each other enough to make the division champ the #2 seed with at least 4 losses.

AFC West: Raiders still on top with 2 losses. They have @KCC and @DEN still on the schedule, if they end the season 14-2 or even 13-3 they will have earned it. As for the competition, Broncos finish season with Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders - probably as tough a schedule as is out there. And the Chiefs still have @ATL, OAK, and DEN. My guess is that the division winner will have 4 losses and a tiebreaker will be used to determine it.

AFC North: 2-way race between Ravens and Steelers, both at 6-5. Ravens won the first matchup so have upper hand here. Beyond the H2H game left, Ravens only have Patriots as 'difficult' matchup left. Steelers only have Giants left. Edge to Steelers on schedule. I haven't played all the scenarios out, but I think if Steelers win the H2H they likely win the division.

AFC South: Texans leading the division with a healthy -42 point differential (only three teams worse in conference). Houston has all 'winnable' games left (@GBP, @IND, JAX, CIN, @TEN). Titans next two games are Broncos and Chiefs. I think Houston wins the division at 9-7 (wins over Indy, Jacksonville, Cincy).
 

Stitch01

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Worth noting for the Pats that there is a good chance they have tiebreaker over KC (particularly if the tiebreaker is going to matter), a good chance they lose tiebreaker to Oakland, and with Denver the tiebreaker only is going to matter if Denver has it.

Assuming Miami wins out, which is likely the only way a tiebreaker with Miami matters, the Dolphins will win tiebreaker via division record. More up in the air with a tiebreaker at 11-5.
 

C4CRVT

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Current playoff seeding (per ESPN the tiebreakers are explained)

1- NE (9-2)
2- OAK (9-2)

3- BAL (6-5)
4- HOU (6-5)

WC1- KC (8-3)
WC2- MIA (7-4)

In the hunt
DEN 7-4
PIT 6-5
BUF 6-5
TEN 6-5
IND 5-6

Obviously the AFC South is going to send a turd to a home playoff game. I agree that the Steelers will probably wrestle control over the AFC North from Baltimore. One of KC/DEN/MIA is going to be left out.

We could easily have two "better" teams as the 5/6 than the 3/4. In fact it's more probable than not that the team that loses out on the #6 seed will be a team that would be favored against the #4 seed. As long as we're not playing the AFCCG in Denver, it's all good. Screw that place and that team.
 

DJnVa

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AFC South: Texans leading the division with a healthy -42 point differential (only three teams worse in conference). Houston has all 'winnable' games left (@GBP, @IND, JAX, CIN, @TEN).
I can make case very easily that 4 of those games are easily losable to team led by Osweiler.
 

C4CRVT

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By the way, the game at Denver this year is 3 weeks away.

Home Rams next week should be a W- that damned Rams team might show up to play- you never know with them. FO has them as the #9 defense. Their offense is rated #31 so it'll be interesting to see if the D can look good against a rookie QB and a sub-par offense. In a perfect world, you could bubble wrap Brady, Gronk and Bennett and still get a W.

Home Baltimore MNF-is going to be a grinder of a W. I haven't watched much Ravens football this year but they always play us tough. They are the #30 offense (FO) and the 4th ranked D. Thanks stitch! Flacco will still DPI his way to a few long drives!

At Denver (on short rest btw) It's wrong to want to win that game as bad as I want them to win that game. I want to rip their hearts out. I'm fascinated to see what Brady and the O Line can do against them. Will the Denver D line get the jumps that they did in last year's AFCCG? Will the O line be able to hold up for a LITTLE longer??? Deion Lewis might be the difference maker in this game.

Home Jets- should be a win. I'm curious to see if Bowles caves to the pressure to start one of the young'uns at QB. He was getting ripped this morning by Greenie. Of course Greenie wouldn't have been upset if it'd been a W for his Jets.

At Miami- They're pumped up and going to give us a helluva game. They've been so mediocre for so long, I almost wish them well. Almost. OTOH, I know a few Dolphins fans- it'd probably be better for all of us if they don't win this game.

They're going to win a minimum of 3 of these games. 12 wins should be enough to secure the 2 seed. I can't imagine that Oakland is as tough a place to play as Denver. If OAK goes to the SB on a win against us? I'll tip my cap to 'em. After the tuck rule game, it'll mean a lot to them.
 
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sodenj5

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I wouldn't rule Buffalo out entirely either. They've been very streaky this season. If Watkins can stay on the field and McCoy can run like he did yesterday, they're very much a threat still. These next two weeks at the Raiders and home vs Steelers will basically determine their fate. If they go 0-2 in those games, their season is basically over.

As a Miami fan, at Buffalo for Week 16 has me very nervous if Miami's postseason hopes hinge on that game. I would say this week at Baltimore and the Buffalo game are the two biggest games remaining on Miami's schedule in terms of playoff standings. Unless, of course, the division were somehow still up for grabs in Week 17 in Miami.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Ravens are ahead of Steelers in H2H (1-0) and divisional record (4-0 versus 2-1).

And if the Ravens and Steelers are tied, it is my understanding that they would win common opponents as well.

However, I doubt that Ravens and Steelers will be tied after they play on Week 16, so that game will likely be for all of the marbles.
 

Stitch01

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By the way, the game at Denver this year is 3 weeks away.

Home Rams next week should be a W- that damned Rams team might show up to play- you never know with them. FO has them as the #9 defense. Their offense is rated #31 so it'll be interesting to see if the D can look good against a rookie QB and a sub-par offense. In a perfect world, you could bubble wrap Brady, Gronk and Bennett and still get a W.

Home Baltimore MNF-is going to be a grinder of a W. I haven't watched much Ravens football this year but they always play us tough. They are the #10 offense (FO) and the 14th ranked D. A well balanced team- this game is going to be a pain in the ass to watch.

At Denver (on short week btw) It's wrong to want to win that game as bad as I want them to win that game. I want to rip their hearts out. I'm fascinated to see what Brady and the O Line can do against them. Will the Denver D line get the jumps that they did in last year's AFCCG? Will the O line be able to hold up for a LITTLE longer??? Deion Lewis might be the difference maker in this game.

Home Jets- should be a win. I'm curious to see if Bowles caves to the pressure to start one of the young'uns at QB. He was getting ripped this morning by Greenie. Of course Greenie wouldn't have been upset if it'd been a W for his Jets.

At Miami- They're pumped up and going to give us a helluva game. They've been so mediocre for so long, I almost wish them well. Almost. OTOH, I know a few Dolphins fans- it'd probably be better for all of us if they don't win this game.

They're going to win a minimum of 3 of these games. 12 wins should be enough to secure the 2 seed. I can't imagine that Oakland is as tough a place to play as Denver. If OAK goes to the SB on a win against us? I'll tip my cap to 'em. After the tuck rule game, it'll mean a lot to them.
Ravens are 30th in offensive DVOA and 4th in defensive DVOA. Their offense is really bad. Flacco has been outright terrible coming off of his knee injury and their skill position players are a garbage pile of misfit toys.

Really interesting matchup on defense for the Pats. Ravens pass defense is much better than in recent years, run defense is elite (Pats are a real run heavy team this year), and they crush tight ends. But the Ravens arent balanced, this is a sort of traditional Ravens team that is an absolute tire fire on offense and getting carried by a good defense and special teams. The Pats usually use the old Steelers/Seahawks game plans and spread em out and throw 50 times with an emphasis on pace and short passes, but we havent seen as much of that this season so really interested to see what the offensive approach is.

Not particularly worried about playing them at home though. Some chance the Pats fuck up in the red zone and the special teams matchup isnt great, but even against the Pats defense that team is going to struggle hard to get to 20 and need some turnovers/fluky big plays to be competitive.
 
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wilked

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Ravens are ahead of Steelers in H2H (1-0) and divisional record (4-0 versus 2-1).

And if the Ravens and Steelers are tied, it is my understanding that they would win common opponents as well.

However, I doubt that Ravens and Steelers will be tied after they play on Week 16, so that game will likely be for all of the marbles.
For the Steelers to win the division you have to assume they win the H2H, so the division and H2H advantage go away.
 

wilked

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You've written the Pats in for a bye yet not ready to declare the AFC East sewn up. Interesting.
I think IF they win the division, they get a bye. Only scenario I see realistically for them not getting the bye is MIA slipping past them
 

wilked

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I can make case very easily that 4 of those games are easily losable to team led by Osweiler.
I hear you. Packers currently a 4 point favorite for next week's game. Someone's got to win that god-awful division though
 

Saints Rest

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By the way, the game at Denver this year is 3 weeks away.

Home Rams next week should be a W- that damned Rams team might show up to play- you never know with them. FO has them as the #9 defense. Their offense is rated #31 so it'll be interesting to see if the D can look good against a rookie QB and a sub-par offense. In a perfect world, you could bubble wrap Brady, Gronk and Bennett and still get a W.

Home Baltimore MNF-is going to be a grinder of a W. I haven't watched much Ravens football this year but they always play us tough. They are the #30 offense (FO) and the 4th ranked D. Thanks stitch! Flacco will still DPI his way to a few long drives!

At Denver (on short week btw) It's wrong to want to win that game as bad as I want them to win that game. I want to rip their hearts out. I'm fascinated to see what Brady and the O Line can do against them. Will the Denver D line get the jumps that they did in last year's AFCCG? Will the O line be able to hold up for a LITTLE longer??? Deion Lewis might be the difference maker in this game.

Home Jets- should be a win. I'm curious to see if Bowles caves to the pressure to start one of the young'uns at QB. He was getting ripped this morning by Greenie. Of course Greenie wouldn't have been upset if it'd been a W for his Jets.

At Miami- They're pumped up and going to give us a helluva game. They've been so mediocre for so long, I almost wish them well. Almost. OTOH, I know a few Dolphins fans- it'd probably be better for all of us if they don't win this game.

They're going to win a minimum of 3 of these games. 12 wins should be enough to secure the 2 seed. I can't imagine that Oakland is as tough a place to play as Denver. If OAK goes to the SB on a win against us? I'll tip my cap to 'em. After the tuck rule game, it'll mean a lot to them.
It's interesting that the next 3 weeks, the Pats' opponents rank:
  • By Offensive DVOA (thru week 11): 31, 30, 26
  • By Defensive DVOA (thru week 11): 9, 4, 2
So good match-ups for all 3 weeks, pitting Patriot strength against opponent strength and weakness vs weakness.
 

dcmissle

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Miami is interesting with 10 - 6 quite attainable.

At Baltimore Sunday will be a struggle.

Then they have the Cardinals, Jets and Bills, and it's a very good bet that 2 of them crater, or lay down for the Dolphins, maybe all three.

Then they close with the Pats at home, which is familiar and comfortable territory for Mia - even if HFA is on the line for us: we saw that movie last year.
 

alydar

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@dbn, after tonight's game can you run your who's-beaten-who script and post the results? I feel like that's always a useful starting point for any power rankings.
 

nothumb

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Kind of funny how fast we go from hoping like hell not to go to Denver in the playoffs to Denver having a very real chance of missing the playoffs and coming in third in their division.
 

dbn

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@dbn, after tonight's game can you run your who's-beaten-who script and post the results? I feel like that's always a useful starting point for any power rankings.
Sure.

Code:
rank  team  record  "points" ranks_of_teams_beaten -- ranks_of_teams_lost_to
(ties count as one win vs that team and one loss vs that team)

 1 OAK   9- 2___148.00_____ 14 22 20 10 29 11 3 8 23 -- 5 4
 2 DAL  10- 1___119.00_____ 9 28 31 25 18 17 32 16 20 9 -- 6
 3 DEN   7- 4___100.00_____ 23 20 25 11 8 10 14 -- 5 10 1 4
 4  KC   8- 3___99.00_____ 10 30 1 14 20 29 23 3 -- 8 16 11
 5 ATL   7- 4___85.00_____ 1 14 23 3 18 11 26 -- 11 12 10 17
 6 NYG   8- 3___57.00_____ 2 14 20 27 17 25 28 32 -- 9 15 18
 7  NE   9- 2___50.00_____ 26 19 8 32 25 16 24 31 30 -- 24 12
 8 HOU   6- 5___46.00_____ 28 4 22 20 13 29 -- 7 15 3 1 10
 9 WAS   7- 5___40.00_____ 6 32 20 17 25 15 18 -- 16 2 13 2 25
10  SD   5- 6___37.00_____ 29 3 5 22 8 -- 4 20 14 1 3 19
11  TB   6- 5___33.00_____ 5 23 31 28 4 12 -- 26 27 3 1 5
12 SEA   8- 4___27.00_____ 19 31 30 5 26 24 7 17 -- 27 14 11 26
13 DET   7- 4___23.00_____ 20 17 27 9 15 29 15 -- 22 18 28 8
14  NO   5- 6___20.00_____ 10 23 12 31 27 -- 1 6 5 4 3 23
15 MIN   6- 5___15.00_____ 22 18 23 6 8 26 -- 17 28 13 9 13
16 PIT   6- 5___13.00_____ 9 25 4 30 32 20 -- 17 19 7 20 2
17 PHI   5- 6___9.00_____ 32 28 16 15 5 -- 13 9 2 6 12 18
18  GB   5- 6___-1.00_____ 29 13 6 28 17 -- 15 2 5 20 22 9
19 MIA   7- 4___-5.00_____ 32 16 24 30 10 27 31 -- 12 7 25 22
20 BAL   6- 5___-8.00_____ 24 32 29 16 32 25 -- 1 9 6 30 2
20 IND   5- 6___-8.00_____ 10 28 22 18 22 -- 13 3 29 8 4 16
22 TEN   6- 6___-15.00_____ 13 19 32 29 18 28 -- 15 1 8 20 10 20
23 CAR   4- 7___-19.00_____ 31 26 27 14 -- 3 15 5 11 14 4 1
24 BUF   6- 5___-35.00_____ 26 7 27 31 25 29 -- 20 30 19 7 12
25 CIN   4- 8___-45.00_____ 30 19 32 9 -- 16 3 2 7 9 6 24 20
26 ARI   5- 7___-63.00_____ 11 31 30 31 12 -- 7 24 27 12 23 15 5
27  LA   4- 7___-77.00_____ 12 11 26 30 -- 31 24 13 6 23 19 14
28 CHI   2- 9___-95.00_____ 13 15 -- 8 17 2 20 29 18 11 6 22
29 JAC   2- 9___-102.00_____ 20 28 -- 18 10 20 1 22 4 8 13 24
30 NYJ   3- 8___-113.00_____ 24 20 32 -- 25 4 12 16 26 19 27 7
31  SF   1-10___-158.00_____ 27 -- 23 12 2 26 24 11 14 26 7 19
32 CLE   0-12___-193.00_____ -- 17 20 19 9 7 22 25 30 2 20 16 6

Also:
division out_of_division_record % sum_of_div_ranks sum_of_div_"points"

NFC East   23-8  0.742   34  225.00
AFC West   22-8  0.733   18  384.00
AFC East   18-12  0.600   80  -103.00
NFC South  15-15  0.500   53  119.00
NFC North   13-17  0.433   74  -58.00
AFC South  12-19  0.387   79  -79.00
NFC West   10-20  0.333   96  -271.00
AFC North   9-23  0.281   93  -233.00

Patriots are hurt by their relatively weak schedule and loss to BUF.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Kind of funny how fast we go from hoping like hell not to go to Denver in the playoffs to Denver having a very real chance of missing the playoffs and coming in third in their division.
And if Denver wins their next two games (at Jacksonville, which they absolutely should win, and at Tennessee, which could go either way) we will be right back to the former scenario during the week leading up to the Pats/Donkies game.
 

dcmissle

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And didn't we go through a period late last season -- after the Pats game -- when Denver wobbled between the 1 seed and maybe being out of the playoffs altogether?
 

Sox and Rocks

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And didn't we go through a period late last season -- after the Pats game -- when Denver wobbled between the 1 seed and maybe being out of the playoffs altogether?
Yes. After beating New England, the Donks lost to Oakland and Pittsburgh, then beat Cincinnati with a come from behind, patentend lucky win on Monday night (Cincy was without Dalton and Eiffert). Had they lost this game, they would have been out of the playoffs altogether at that point. The next week, they beat San Diego, also coming from behind (the infamous return of Peyton and ensuing Nanzgasm game), which if they had lost would have relegated them to wildcard status.

This season is oddly similar at this point, though regardless of how Denver finishes they do not seem as strong on defense as they were last year. Also, obviously Denver has two competitors for the division this year instead of just one.
 

tims4wins

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I expect them to get their fluky on again. Thank you.
Maybe, but the tide has turned slightly. In the Oakland-Houston game there were several calls that benefited Oakland. And on SNF, they had some late penalties, as well as the last play on the goal line. Last year, there is no doubt they win that SNF game.
 

BlackJack

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And if Denver wins their next two games (at Jacksonville, which they absolutely should win, and at Tennessee, which could go either way) we will be right back to the former scenario during the week leading up to the Pats/Donkies game.
In order to be in position for the #1 seed after week 15, Denver would need:

Den wins their next 3 games
Oakland to lose their next 3
KC to go 1-2 (winning against Oakland)
NE losing to either LA or Baltimore.

It's not impossible but it's not terribly likely either.
 

dbn

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@dbn, after tonight's game can you run your who's-beaten-who script and post the results? I feel like that's always a useful starting point for any power rankings.
I made a tweak to the code so that rankings aren't linear, to account for the fact that the difference between team N and team N-1 is in general different than the difference between team N-1 and team N-2, etc.

Hear are the new based-only-on-who-beat-whom rankings (normalized such that the top team is always 31.0 and the bottom team always 0.0):

Code:
OAK 31.0
DAL 28.6
 KC 26.8
DEN 26.0
ATL 25.2
 NE 24.3
NYG 23.3
SEA 22.0
HOU 21.7
WAS 21.5
DET 20.7
 TB 20.6
 SD 20.3
MIN 19.3
PIT 18.9
 NO 18.7
MIA 18.4
 GB 17.3
PHI 17.2
IND 16.8
TEN 16.6
BAL 16.6
BUF 16.1
CAR 15.0
CIN 12.7
ARI 12.7
 LA 11.4
JAC 8.4
NYJ 8.3
CHI 8.2
 SF 4.0
CLE 0.0
 

Sox and Rocks

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In order to be in position for the #1 seed after week 15, Denver would need:

Den wins their next 3 games
Oakland to lose their next 3
KC to go 1-2 (winning against Oakland)
NE losing to either LA or Baltimore.

It's not impossible but it's not terribly likely either.
All true, but my premise was about what it would take to make the Pats/Donks an uncomfortable and important match up leading up to the game, in which case a Denver win in their next two games (against Jax and Tennessee) will undoubtedly create. If Denver wins both, the worst they can be heading into the Pats game is two back, with a chance to win and cut the lead to one and own the tiebreaker (sound familiar?) Under this same scenario, one loss by Oakland would also put Denver one back of Oakland with a matchup at home the final week, and they would be at most one game behind KC with another matchup against, them, too, and possibly even tied or ahead if KC drops a game or two.

The flip side, of course, is that if Denver loses any of their next two games they will not be in a position to make the Pats game crucial for the Pats, as there is little chance a Patriot loss in Denver would create severe repercussions.
 

Stitch01

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The Denver game is going to be crucial to the Pats for the one seed under all circumstances They're slightly behind the Raiders for the one seed right now. It might be important for the division. If the Dolphins keep winning then losing to Denver brings the possibility of a winner take all showdown to close the season in Miami (very possibly in primetime) into play.

Its not going to be critical for having to travel to Denver for the playoffs. The chances of that happening are going be almost zero going into the game and almost zero coming out of the game. Denver is in third place in the division two back with five to play, shitty position in tiebreakers (1-3 in division) , and close the season @ Chiefs, vs. Raiders. I know playing at Denver is the perpetual monster under the bed, but the Chiefs buried that particular worry Sunday night.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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The Denver game is going to be crucial to the Pats for the one seed under all circumstances They're slightly behind the Raiders for the one seed right now. It might be important for the division. If the Dolphins keep winning then losing to Denver brings the possibility of a winner take all showdown to close the season in Miami (very possibly in primetime) into play.
.
Agree on the one seed, although Oakland is unlikely to finish better than 12-4 so I am not sure how the tiebreakers would shake out as each would likely have 3 conference losses. There is no way the Dolphins run the table before the final game of the season. They have two divisional games, plus Baltimore, all on the road...they will likely lose 2 of 3.
 

Stitch01

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Pats likely lose on common games before they get to conference record and, if not, were behind on strength of victory last time i saw it calculated.
 

lexrageorge

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Pats likely lose on common games before they get to conference record and, if not, were behind on strength of victory last time i saw it calculated.
Conference record comes before common games in the tie breaker priority.
 

Stitch01

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Yup, I was looking at the division tiebreaker when I posted that. Common games come first there, not for a Pats/Raiders tiebreak. Academic unless the Pats lose to the Rams.
 

alydar

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I made a tweak to the code so that rankings aren't linear, to account for the fact that the difference between team N and team N-1 is in general different than the difference between team N-1 and team N-2, etc.

Hear are the new based-only-on-who-beat-whom rankings (normalized such that the top team is always 31.0 and the bottom team always 0.0):

Code:
OAK 31.0
DAL 28.6
 KC 26.8
DEN 26.0
ATL 25.2
 NE 24.3
NYG 23.3
SEA 22.0
HOU 21.7
WAS 21.5
DET 20.7
 TB 20.6
 SD 20.3
MIN 19.3
PIT 18.9
 NO 18.7
MIA 18.4
 GB 17.3
PHI 17.2
IND 16.8
TEN 16.6
BAL 16.6
BUF 16.1
CAR 15.0
CIN 12.7
ARI 12.7
 LA 11.4
JAC 8.4
NYJ 8.3
CHI 8.2
 SF 4.0
CLE 0.0
Thanks for this. I think it is a simple way to account for strength of schedule, which isn't the end-all-be-all, but is still as good a place as any to start. Better than straight up record, at least.

Really emphasizes that the Patriots have beaten a lot of bad teams -- 3 of the bottom 4, 5 of the bottom 8.

Also interesting that 6 of the top 10 teams are from two divisions, the AFC West and NFC East.
 

tims4wins

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How is SD ahead of Miami given that Miami beat SD and has a better record?

Similarly, Atlanta won in Denver but they have the same record and the ranking is super close
 

alydar

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@dbn can explain what exactly the code is doing in more detail, but non-intuitive results like that are kinda expected, in that a head-to-head game doesn't count 'extra' in determining the rankings, but rather the overall body of work -- who you beat and who you lost to.

To take an extreme example:
Team A is 1 - 7
Team B is 7 - 1
Team A beat Team B straight up, but they also played 7 common opponents and Team B beat them all while Team A lost to them all. This algorithm will (correctly, in my opinion) rank Team B higher.

To examine one case you mention, Miami has 4 wins against awful teams (Jets, Browns, 49ers, Rams) and no wins against any top 10 teams (their best win by this algorithm is against San Diego, #13). In contrast, the Chargers have beaten the Broncos (#4), Falcons (#5), and Texans (#9).

The point of the algorithm is, more or less, to find a way of ranking the 32 teams so that the maximal number of head-to-head outcomes that have already occured fit the rankings. It is of course impossible to come up with any linear ranking that captures all past head-to-head results, but what I like about this approach is that it captures strength of schedule in a more nuanced way and with no human intervention / thumb on the scale.
 

dbn

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I don't want to derail the thread much more, but I'll explain the algorithm as briefly as I can.

My original thought was to use it for NCAAB where selection is supposed to be on merit of what a team has won or lost, against whom - but that's a lot of game results to enter so I tried it on the NFL and never went beyond.

The idea is simple. A beats B beats C, so A > B > C, but what if C then beats A?

So, rank teams 1-32 based on win %. Then award each team 1 "point" if they beat the #32 team, 2 if they beat the #31 team... 31 "points" if they beat the #2 team, 32 if they beat the #1 team. Also, award them -1 "point" if the lose to the #1 team, -2 if to the #2 team... -31 to the #31 team, -32 to the #32 team. Add up the points, re-rank the teams based on points, and do it all again, and again, until it converges.

The limitations of this are many and obvious, but the one thing I do like about it is that it often shows that a team's record may look better or worse because of who they have played, especially as in the early part of the season we think some results are impressive but then the opposing team turns out to be worse than we had thought at the time (see, e.g., ARI) - and some results seem more bad than they are because the opposing team lost to turns out to be better than we thought they would be (see, e.g., TB).

Finally, the newer version doesn't give "points" linearly, but re-normalizes each teams' points to a 0-31 scale then uses that. For example, if teams #4 and #5 are almost equal, but much higher ranked by "points" than #6, beating/losing-to #4 or #5 gives about the same positive/negative "points" but significantly more than would #6.

The C code. Should compile with any generic C compiler.
Code:
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#include <string.h>
#include <math.h>

struct Teams {
  int num; /* number to keep track of team */
  char name[4]; /* team name by location abbreviation */
  int div; /* which division, coded 1-8 */
  float rank; /* ranking */
  int beat[18]; /* teams beaten on week [i] */
  int lost[18]; /* teams lost to on week [i] */
  float wp;  /* win % */
  float pts; /* the points that determine rank */
  float ppts; /* the pts from the previous iteration */
  float wpts; /* pts opposing team gets for beating this team */
  float lpts; /* pts opposing team gets for losing to this team */
};


int main(int argc, char *argv[])
{
  int i,j,k,flag,tmp1,tmp2, nweeks, ngames, iter;
  float minpts, maxpts, delta, thresh=0.0001;
  char victor[4], loser[4];
  struct Teams team[32];
  FILE *fp;


  /* READ IN DATA FROM KEY */
  fp=fopen(argv[1], "r");
  for(i=0;i<32;i++) {
    fscanf(fp, "%d %s %d", &team[i].num, team[i].name, &team[i].div);
    for(j=0;j<18;j++) team[i].beat[j]=team[i].lost[j]=-1;
  }
  fclose(fp);

  /* READ IN DATA FROM RESULTS */
  fp=fopen(argv[2], "r");
  nweeks=0;
  while(fgetc(fp)!=EOF){
    while(fgetc(fp)!='\n');
    nweeks++;
  }
  rewind(fp);

  for(i=0;i<nweeks;i++){
    fscanf(fp, "%d", &ngames);
    for(j=0;j<ngames;j++){
      fscanf(fp, "%s %s", victor, loser);
      for(k=flag=0;flag<2;k++){
    if(k==32) { fprintf(stderr, "error in week %d\n", i); exit(1); }
    if(strcmp(victor,team[k].name)==0){ tmp1=k; flag++; }
    if(strcmp(loser,team[k].name)==0) { tmp2=k; flag++; }
      }
      team[tmp1].beat[i]=tmp2;
      team[tmp2].lost[i]=tmp1;
    }
  }


/* CALCULATE WINNING PERCENTAGES */
  for(i=0;i<32;i++){
    tmp1=tmp2=0;
    for(j=0;j<nweeks;j++){
      if(team[i].beat[j]>=0) tmp1++;
      if(team[i].lost[j]>=0) tmp2++;
    }
    team[i].wp=(float)(tmp1)/(float)(tmp1+tmp2);
  }

/* INITIAL RANK BASED ON WIN% -- 31 is best, 0 is worst*/
  for(i=0;i<32;i++){
    tmp1=tmp2=0;
    for(j=0;j<32;j++)
      if(i!=j){
    if(team[i].wp>team[j].wp) tmp1++;
    if(team[i].wp<team[j].wp) tmp2++;
      }
    if(tmp1==0) team[i].rank=0.;
    else
      if(tmp2==0) team[i].rank=31.;
      else team[i].rank=31.-(float)(tmp2);
    team[i].wpts=team[i].rank;
    team[i].lpts=team[i].rank-(float)(31);
  }

/* CALCULATE INITIAL TEAM.PTS */
  for(i=0;i<32;i++){
    team[i].pts=0.;
    for(j=0;j<nweeks;j++){
      if(team[i].beat[j]>=0) team[i].pts=team[i].pts+team[team[i].beat[j]].wpts;
      if(team[i].lost[j]>=0)  team[i].pts=team[i].pts+team[team[i].lost[j]].lpts;
    }
  }
 
/* NORMALIZE INITIAL PTS, WPTS, LPTS */
  minpts=1000.0; maxpts=-1000.0;
  for(i=0;i<32;i++){
    if(team[i].pts<minpts) minpts=team[i].pts;
    if(team[i].pts>maxpts) maxpts=team[i].pts;
  }
  delta=maxpts-minpts;
  for(i=0;i<32;i++){
    team[i].pts = (team[i].pts - minpts) * (31.0/delta);
    team[i].wpts=team[i].pts;
    team[i].lpts=team[i].pts-(float)(31);
  }


/* START ITERATING */
  flag=iter=0;
  while(flag==0){
    /* CALCULATE NEW PTS */
    for(i=0;i<32;i++){
      team[i].ppts=team[i].pts;
      team[i].pts=0.;
      for(j=0;j<nweeks;j++){
    if(team[i].beat[j]>=0)  team[i].pts=team[i].pts+team[team[i].beat[j]].wpts;
    if(team[i].lost[j]>=0)  team[i].pts=team[i].pts+team[team[i].lost[j]].lpts;
      }
    }   
    /* NORMALIZE NEW PTS, WPTS, LPTS */
    minpts=1000.0; maxpts=-1000.0;
    for(i=0;i<32;i++){
      if(team[i].pts<minpts) minpts=team[i].pts;
      if(team[i].pts>maxpts) maxpts=team[i].pts;
    }
    delta=maxpts-minpts;
    for(i=0;i<32;i++){
      team[i].pts = (team[i].pts - minpts) * (31.0/delta);
      team[i].wpts=team[i].pts;
      team[i].lpts=team[i].pts-(float)(31);
    }
    flag=1;
    for(i=0;i<32&&flag==1;i++){
      if(fabs(team[i].pts - team[i].ppts) > thresh) flag=0;
    }
    iter++;
    if(iter>100) { fprintf(stderr, "iter>100\n"); flag=1; }
  }

  fprintf(stderr, "iter = %d\n\n", iter);
  for(i=0;i<32;i++)
    fprintf(stdout, "%3s %2.1f\n", team[i].name, team[i].pts);
 


}
command line: program key.dat results.dat

key.dat:
Code:
0 ARI 6
1 ATL 8
2 BAL 3
3 BUF 1
4 CAR 8
5 CHI 7
6 CIN 3
7 CLE 3
8 DAL 5
9 DEN 2
10 DET 7
11 GB 7
12 HOU 4
13 IND 4
14 JAC 4
15 KC 2
16 MIA 1
17 MIN 7
18 NE 1
19 NO 8
20 NYG 5
21 NYJ 1
22 OAK 2
23 PHI 5
24 PIT 3
25 SD 2
26 SEA 6
27 SF 6
28 LA 6
29 TB 8
30 TEN 4
31 WAS 5
results.dat:
Code:
16 DEN CAR GB JAC BAL BUF HOU CHI PHI CLE TB ATL MIN TEN CIN NYJ OAK NO KC SD SEA MIA DET IND NYG DAL NE ARI PIT WAS SF LA
16 NYJ BUF PIT CIN TEN DET BAL CLE DAL WAS NYG NO CAR SF NE MIA HOU KC LA SEA ARI TB SD JAC ATL OAK DEN IND MIN GB PHI CHI
16 NE HOU BUF ARI OAK TEN MIA CLE BAL JAC GB DET DEN CIN MIN CAR WAS NYG LA TB SEA SF KC NYJ IND SD PHI PIT DAL CHI ATL NO
15 CIN MIA JAC IND HOU TEN WAS CLE SEA NYJ BUF NE ATL CAR OAK BAL CHI DET DEN TB LA ARI NO SD DAL SF PIT KC MIN NYG
14 ARI SF NE CLE DET PHI IND CHI TEN MIA WAS BAL MIN HOU PIT NYJ ATL DEN DAL CIN BUF LA OAK SD GB NYG TB CAR
15 SD DEN BUF SF WAS PHI TEN CLE NYG BAL NO CAR JAC CHI DET LA MIA PIT NE CIN KC OAK SEA ATL DAL GB HOU IND ARI NYJ
15 GB CHI NYG LA KC NO IND TEN PHI MIN CIN CLE DET WAS OAK JAC MIA BUF NYJ BAL TB SF SD ATL NE PIT SEA ARI DEN HOU
13 TEN JAC WAS CIN KC IND OAK TB NO SEA HOU DET NYJ CLE NE BUF CAR ARI DEN SD ATL GB DAL PHI CHI MIN
13 ATL TB BAL PIT DAL CLE KC JAC MIA NYJ NYG PHI DET MIN CAR LA NO SF SD TEN IND GB OAK DEN SEA BUF
14 BAL CLE TEN GB WAS MIN TB CHI KC CAR PHI ATL LA NYJ DEN NO HOU JAC MIA SD DAL PIT ARI SF SEA NE NYG CIN
14 CAR NO PIT CLE DAL BAL DET JAC IND TEN BUF CIN TB KC NYG CHI MIN ARI MIA LA NE SF SEA PHI WAS GB OAK HOU
16 DET MIN DAL WAS PIT IND TEN CHI BUF JAC BAL CIN ATL ARI NYG CLE NO LA MIA SF SD HOU TB SEA OAK CAR NE NYJ KC DEN GB PHI
2 ARI SEA CIN WAS
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Rounding into December, 5 games to go.

AFC East: Dolphins win their 6th in a row and refuse to go away quietly. They still play the Patriots on New Years Day. They have @BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF before that. Three road games, two in cold weather, not easy, but I am not ready to declare the AFC East sewn up until either the Pats win out or the Fins lose one more.

1st Rd BYE: Patriots have a 3 game lead on AFC North/South with 5 to go, I am satisfied enough to write them into a bye for now. They should be sitting at home for the first week of the playoffs. Home field throughout is still in question though. The Raiders are the obvious threat with the same record, but the hope as always is that the AFC West beat up on each other enough to make the division champ the #2 seed with at least 4 losses.

AFC West: Raiders still on top with 2 losses. They have @KCC and @DEN still on the schedule, if they end the season 14-2 or even 13-3 they will have earned it.
Good breakdown, thanks.

Tough to know what to make of the Raiders, but we'll learn a lot as you say over the next month. Next week alone they play a physical game against Buffalo on Sunday, then fly to KC on a short week and play in will be a crazy Arrowhead atmosphere on Thursday night.
 

C4CRVT

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 29, 2008
3,076
Heart of the Green Mountains
It's interesting that the next 3 weeks, the Pats' opponents rank:
  • By Offensive DVOA (thru week 11): 31, 30, 26
  • By Defensive DVOA (thru week 11): 9, 4, 2
So good match-ups for all 3 weeks, pitting Patriot strength against opponent strength and weakness vs weakness.
Updated from last week:
LA 32/15 (26th overall)
BAL 30/1 (13th overall)
DEN 24/2 (15th overall)
followed by
NJY 27/23 (31st overall)
MIA 13/8 (9th overall)

So the offense is going to get some good tests. The Defense won't face a (currently rated) top 10 offense for at least 6 weeks (this would take a pretty major catastrophe), much more likely 8 weeks (AFCCG should they make it that far). Miami could sneak up and be a top 10 offense by week 17 I guess.

AFC teams with DVOA top 10 Offenses:
3- NE
5- OAK
7- TEN
8- BUF
9- PIT
 

Gunfighter 09

wants to be caribou ken
Staff member
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2005
8,112
KPWT
Good breakdown, thanks.

Tough to know what to make of the Raiders, but we'll learn a lot as you say over the next month. Next week alone they play a physical game against Buffalo on Sunday, then fly to KC on a short week and play in will be a crazy Arrowhead atmosphere on Thursday night.

A split would be perfectly fine, obviously better if the win comes at Arrowhead. The Thursday night game two time zones away is bullshit, but the 10 day break before ending the season with two division road games sandwiched around Andrew Luck's return to the Bay Area is nice. Going 3-2 over the last five should be enough to get the Raiders to 12-4, the division title and the #2 seed. Anything beyond that is gravy.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
48,671
How's Carr's finger? Is it going to have an effect on these next couple games? Also, how cool is it that we have the same tattoo in the same spot; do you think he'd want to be my friend?
 

Gunfighter 09

wants to be caribou ken
Staff member
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2005
8,112
KPWT
How's Carr's finger? Is it going to have an effect on these next couple games? Also, how cool is it that we have the same tattoo in the same spot; do you think he'd want to be my friend?

The thought of Marciano hanging out with David, Derek and Darren at the Carr compound in Bakersfield is pretty entertaining. I bet it would be a good time, though you seem to live very different lifestyles.


According to Florio, the most important pinkie on the planet is just fine:

Carr met with the media on Wednesday and faced a series of questions about how his finger was feeling and his answer was the same for each one.

“It’s doing great,” Carr said.

Carr also said he had “no limitations” on the field when asked if he’ll be able to do more than play from the shotgun this week, so it looks like everything will be back to normal on offense for the Raiders this weekend.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/11/30/derek-carr-fingers-doing-great/
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,208
Arkansas
Oakland is your biggest theat this season all denver will do to u this year is try to have Stewart or ward hurt Gronk or edilman i see it like this

1 OAK 13-3 they lose @ KC or @ DEN resting their guys for homefield after they win 4 str
2 NE 12-4 u lose to denver unlees lynch starts then u beat devner and go 13-3 with Oakland winning tiebreak u lose to @ mia in week 17
3Pitt 10-6 if they beat NYG they run the table and finish 11-5
4 HOU/TENN 9-7 i dont trust INDY i think if Tenn beats Den they win the AFC South if not Houton does
5 KC 10-6 LOSE @ ATL and @ SD And to OAK or tenn and Den is a toss up
6MIA/DEN 10-6 Simian has a foot inj Denver has to win the next 2 games or no playoffs the best denver can do is 5 but lose @ Jax and i see 8-8 for denver only winning aga Oak in week 17
If MIA Wins this sunday denver might be F no matter what because then i see miami at 10-4 with 2 games left and MiA wins 1 of 2

denver only shot at homefield is win out have oakland lose to SD and KC and maybe buff
NE Lose to Balt den And @ MIA

and if that happends its all goodell
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,208
Arkansas
Yes Kc couild go 1-4 in their 5 games ATL will score on their Def they cant win shootouts
then play a mad raider team 4 days later esp if they lose to buff that will want payback for 24-10
then Tenn which is better then their rec chiefs might be caught looking ahead to den

yes they are better than SD but that will be Likely San diego last home game ever so they wouild beat anyone but DAL NE in that case
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,208
Arkansas
i think u wouild beat Oakland @ ne but not in Oak here why

1 that Oak Stadium while very bad looking on tv and it is is Loud + all your WR TE wouild fall on the field
2 Carr playes great at home they have the 2nd best OL to dallas so you wouild get no presser on him + if u stop their pass game they will just run 6 OL at u and try to wear u down like they did denver + at their stadium this season they get all the calls
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
6,022
i think u wouild beat Oakland @ ne but not in Oak here why

1 that Oak Stadium while very bad looking on tv and it is is Loud + all your WR TE wouild fall on the field
2 Carr playes great at home they have the 2nd best OL to dallas so you wouild get no presser on him + if u stop their pass game they will just run 6 OL at u and try to wear u down like they did denver + at their stadium this season they get all the calls
Eh, Pats get no pressure on anyone - why would Oakland be any different? :)
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,208
Arkansas
because carr can throw the ball 50-60 yards on Target u must doudle crabtree he loves that guy but if u do that seth robters kills u
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
53,064
San Andreas Fault
i think u wouild beat Oakland @ ne but not in Oak here why

1 that Oak Stadium while very bad looking on tv and it is is Loud + all your WR TE wouild fall on the field
2 Carr playes great at home they have the 2nd best OL to dallas so you wouild get no presser on him + if u stop their pass game they will just run 6 OL at u and try to wear u down like they did denver + at their stadium this season they get all the calls
Why would all of our WRs and TEs fall on the Oakland Coliseum field? Are you thinking of the other (actually closed) Bay Area football field, Candlestick, which got all slippery this time of year because it is below sea level? I didn't think Oakland had any problem like that.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
11,785
because carr can throw the ball 50-60 yards on Target u must doudle crabtree he loves that guy but if u do that seth robters kills u
I'm expecting Carr to turn into Peyton junior. His tiny little Donald Trump hands are going to have a hard time gripping the ball in the cold. Let's see him perform when the weather gets shitty.
 

Gunfighter 09

wants to be caribou ken
Staff member
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2005
8,112
KPWT
Why would all of our WRs and TEs fall on the Oakland Coliseum field? Are you thinking of the other (actually closed) Bay Area football field, Candlestick, which got all slippery this time of year because it is below sea level? I didn't think Oakland had any problem like that.
The field as the OCC is below sea level as well and is relatively shitty, but the only field I have seen Raiders receivers slip on consistently this year is Mexico City. If it rains, the Coliseum turns into a mud bowl. The Raiders played like garbage in the rain at home against the Chiefs this year, so perhaps there is something to it. In a rainy January game the Pats would have to wade through a few inches of water and sewage to get to the field from their locker room, so that might slow them down. Imagine what that would do to Brady's Uggs.

I'm expecting Carr to turn into Peyton junior. His tiny little Donald Trump hands are going to have a hard time gripping the ball in the cold. Let's see him perform when the weather gets shitty.
I can smell your fear and desperation.
 
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