Are we being/going to be Haynesworthed by Sandoval?

[BosRedSox5]

So for those that don't know, Albert Haynesworth was a huge NFL star. One of the best defensive linemen in the game and the Washington Redskins signed him to a 7 year 100 million dollar contract. A good deal of it was guaranteed. He was an absolute disaster in Washington, and according to many he took the money and quit on the team. He was famously unable to complete a conditioning test set up by coach Mike Shanahan. This test was akin to the kind of thing players do in Junior High and was later completed by Mike Golic, a 47 year old former defensive lineman and ESPN analyst. 
 
In any case... is that going to happen to us with the Panda?

Look, I know it's only been 313 at bats, but Sandoval has looked terrible. Defense was a big part of how he was packaged to Red Sox fans and he's not doing well at that either. Ideally you give long term contracts to driven players, players like Pedroia who will do whatever it takes to win... and you really have to question the drive of someone who is as heavy as Sandoval is. Lest I get accused of taking a low blow, we know for a fact that Pablo Sandoval left the Giants because they wanted to put him on a weight regimen. He felt so disrespected by the team that he began his career with that he refused to consider their offer all because they wanted him to watch his weight? And we came along and committed 95 million to him? 
 
I'll admit it, I'm overweight, and statistically speaking, a few of you are too, but we're not professional athletes. They are paid to maintain their bodies. I'm reminded of a video from 2010 where Jason Varitek had his chef/personal trainer come over in the morning, make him a healthy protein packed breakfast, kick his ass for several hours and then make him a healthy lunch. Varitek was 10 years older than Sandoval is now. He was already on the downside of his career and a huge hero in Boston but he worked tirelessly to get the most out of his body. Can you imagine Sandoval doing anything like this? 

To recycle the article from before, I think this is a great quote from Ortiz:

 

 
 
"I've been getting after Pablo about that,'' Ortiz said. "Because Pablo is very agile, but he's 28 now. If he doesn't take care of himself, in a couple of years he could lose that agility overnight. So I'm talking to him about eating better, because if you want to stay in this game, you have to take care of yourself.''

 
As great and sensible as that sentiment is, Ortiz seems to be talking about maintenance. About doing what's needed to maintain his agility. Sandoval needs to reinvent his approach to fitness, and we signed him knowing specifically that he left the team that signed him as a kid in Venezuela and knows him best because they put pressure on him to do so. 
 
No, the sky isn't falling but Sandoval has been in decline offensively every year after his magnificent 2011. Are we being dragged down by a player who, like Albert Haynesworth, took the money and won't do what's necessary to earn it? 

 

[DJnVa]

First off, as you said, it's only 313 plate appearances.
 
Here's where the issues show up, at least in the numbers:
 
His BB% is way down--4.2% with a career number of 7.1%
 
His BABIP is down to .287. Last few years have been around .300, career is .311. Weaker contact? His GB/FB is up a lot--from .77 career to .92. Weaker contact? He's also swinging at a lot fewer first pitches--in his career he's murdered first pitches and he's doing the same this year, but he's not swinging at them as much. Why? Is there a team philosophy at work and it's hurting him? Should he start getting more aggressive on the first pitch?
 
Things like his LD% and HR/FB% are all around what he's done the last few seasons.
 
He's just had a lot of ABs that used to produce balls in the air became ground balls. So, something is causing that--not picking up the ball as soon as he used to, he's not jumping on first pitches like he used to, and when he makes contact he's not getting the lift he's used to.

 

[Al Zarilla]

The Patriots just took out a flyer on Haynesworth, didn't they? Then, when he didn't work out for them, as he didn't with the Redskins, they cut him at not much cost. Can't cut the Panda. I just don't think Sandoval is very smart. If he can't figure out by now that when he's at the higher end of his weight swings, which he appears to be now, his defense and baserunning suffer, what else can you say?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think the answer to the thread question is "it's way too soon to tell, but it's a possibility we need to be prepared for."
 
 

His BABIP is down to .287. Last few years have been around .300, career is .311. Weaker contact? His GB/FB is up a lot--from .77 career to .92. Weaker contact? He's also swinging at a lot fewer first pitches--in his career he's murdered first pitches and he's doing the same this year, but he's not swinging at them as much. Why? Is there a team philosophy at work and it's hurting him? Should he start getting more aggressive on the first pitch?
 
Things like his LD% and HR/FB% are all around what he's done the last few seasons.
 
He's just had a lot of ABs that used to produce balls in the air became ground balls. So, something is causing that--not picking up the ball as soon as he used to, he's not jumping on first pitches like he used to, and when he makes contact he's not getting the lift he's used to.

 
I think a lot of this could simply be adjusting to a new league. Obviously with interleague play this isn't as stark and abrupt an adjustment as it used to be, but he's still probably seeing a lot of pitchers he hasn't seen before, in parks that he's only played in a small handful of times. That would naturally tend to make even a free swinger a little less trigger-happy on first pitches, I would think.

 

[tims4wins]

Sandoval had a .739 OPS last year. As of June 28 his OPS this year was .735, then he slumped a bit for the two weeks heading into the break. He is what he is on the offensive side of things, a free swinger with moderate power. If he ends up with a .730-.750 OPS I don't think anyone should really be surprised, or even have reason to complain, as far as offense goes.
 
As the OP pointed out, the bigger issue is defense. I understand the rationale for signing him - above average bat with premium infield defense, with a probable transition across the diamond after a couple years where he could still provide good defense and enough offense to justify him playing 1B. Makes sense from that perspective. But if he can't provide plus defense, then he becomes a total albatross. And it seems as if his weight may be a huge factor in his defense.

 

[Montana Fan]

Since Haynesworth is mentioned, if you haven't read his letter to his 15 yo self, it's pretty good.
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/albert-haynesworth-letter-to-my-younger-self/
 
And I agree that the topic question will be answered over time.

 

[DJnVa]

. I just don't think Sandoval is very smart. If he can't figure out by now that when he's at the higher end of his weight swings, which he appears to be now, his defense and baserunning suffer, what else can you say?

 
Do you have some numbers to show how he hits depending on his apparent weight?

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

So for those that don't know, Albert Haynesworth was a huge NFL star. One of the best defensive linemen in the game and the Washington Redskins signed him to a 7 year 100 million dollar contract. A good deal of it was guaranteed. He was an absolute disaster in Washington, and according to many he took the money and quit on the team. He was famously unable to complete a conditioning test set up by coach Mike Shanahan. This test was akin to the kind of thing players do in Junior High and was later completed by Mike Golic, a 47 year old former defensive lineman and ESPN analyst. 
 
In any case... is that going to happen to us with the Panda?

...
 
Are we being dragged down by a player who, like Albert Haynesworth, took the money and won't do what's necessary to earn it? 

This seems awfully harsh.  Yeah, he has not been great in the field, but as pointed out above, his offense has been about what we might have expected (unless we let ourselves get carried away by the size of his contract - we gave him all that money, so he must be great!!1!).  But do you really think he's out-and-out quit on the team the way that Haynesworth did?  That's a pretty serious accusation. 
 
He's fat.  He's at the age where he needs to start paying more attention to this if he's going to continue to perform.  It will probably be an adjustment for him that might be challenging.  Maybe he never makes the adjustment.  That hardly means he's quit on the team yet.
 
And was the front office not aware that he was fat and aging?

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Do you have some numbers to show how he hits depending on his apparent weight?

No. Picking on him for his poor fielding and baserunning when he's fatter is admittedly just from the eyeball test from watching a lot of Giants games since he came up. As far as his hitting vs. weight goes, there doesn't seem to be a corresponding cause/effect. He doesn't need to run or jump or bend over or move quickly laterally to hit.

One other thing, he came out during this season saying the only Giant he liked was Hunter Pence (and maybe also Bochy? I think yes, Bochy). I never hear anything negative about the Giants "clubhouse" or leadership, about the players, like Posey, or management, whether on field or front office. Judging from his remarks this year about the Giants, he likely got some "encouragement" about losing some weight and took it poorly. I have to think that if an intelligent leader type guy like Posey made a suggestion to him and he took it poorly, then he might just be a thick-headed guy. Same if it came from a conditioning guy or coach. I think the advice to lose weight came from a latter type.

Going forward, players don't tend to go on weight reduction regimens during the season. So, what you see is what you get with Pablo for the rest of the season. It remains to be seen whether he comes to ST next year somewhat lighter, as he did with the Giants following some seasons in which he ballooned.

 

[BosRedSox5]

This seems awfully harsh.  Yeah, he has not been great in the field, but as pointed out above, his offense has been about what we might have expected (unless we let ourselves get carried away by the size of his contract - we gave him all that money, so he must be great!!1!).  But do you really think he's out-and-out quit on the team the way that Haynesworth did?  That's a pretty serious accusation. 
 
He's fat.  He's at the age where he needs to start paying more attention to this if he's going to continue to perform.  It will probably be an adjustment for him that might be challenging.  Maybe he never makes the adjustment.  That hardly means he's quit on the team yet.
 
And was the front office not aware that he was fat and aging?

 
No... I feel like Haynesworth was a little bit more obstinate and malicious about "quitting" where Sandoval just doesn't take his responsibilities as seriously as he should. I didn't mean to be unduly harsh, because he seems like a pretty good guy, but isn't it worrisome that he left a great situation in San Francisco, the franchise that gave him his first big league opportunity, the organization that developed him... all because they wanted him to stick to a weight regimen? He doesn't seem like he's as serious about fitness as a highly paid professional athlete should be.  

My worry is that this attitude and his lack of physical fitness will drag him down and the Sox will end up paying millions to a player who is nowhere near who they thought he was when they signed him... like Haynesworth.
 

Is a 691 OPS in year one really about what we expected? The guy has been terrible. His approach at the plate makes Pierzynski look like Wade Boggs. For a team to be so averse to long term deals, and then hand one to a fat guy with declining stats, no discipline at the plate, and who seemed to have a dislike of they only organization he'd ever known and who he had won three titles with because they dare suggested he lose weight is baffling.

 
That's what I'm saying. People obviously had higher expectations. 2014 was even considered by many to be a down year and the expectation was he would be as productive as he was in 2012. He's been awful at the plate and in the field, and I'm worried that someone who refuses to put the work in to control their weight is ever going to do what they need to earn their high pay. (Also, can someone lend me Windex for my glass house?)

This article echoes a lot of those concerns: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25205673/should-the-red-sox-be-concerned-about-pablo-sandoval

 

[BosRedSox5]

One other thing, he came out during this season saying the only Giant he liked was Hunter Pence (and maybe also Bochy? I think yes, Bochy). I never hear anything negative about the Giants "clubhouse" or leadership, about the players, like Posey, or management, whether on field or front office. Judging from his remarks this year about the Giants, he likely got some "encouragement" about losing some weight and took it poorly. I have to think that if an intelligent leader type guy like Posey made a suggestion to him and he took it poorly, then he might just be a thick-headed guy. Same if it came from a conditioning guy or coach. I think the advice to lose weight came from a latter type.

 
According to the man himself... he doesn't keep in touch with anyone from the Giants anymore. There's no rule that someone needs to be buddy-buddy with their co-workers, but it seems weird that a team leader with three rings would "cut things off at the root" with his former club. I've got to imagine that, given what we know, at least part of this is weight based. 

 

[snowmanny]

The last four years his OPS has gone 909/789/758/739 so 691 is almost predictable.  He can't hit left-handers at all and that's been true for awhile and it's getting worse, but it's no great shocker. 
 
I think he was signed to play third and hit righthanded pitching and he does have an .803 OPS vs. RHP which is OK.
His capability is really as a platoon third baseman.  I'm not sure he's a good enough hitter to be a regular platoon first baseman or DH.
 
None of this is a surprise. The only surprise was that there was a bidding war for him and that multiple actual professional GMs seem to have been hypnotized by playoff SSS.  I really hope they cut down on his playing time.

 

[LuckyBen]

So for those that don't know, Albert Haynesworth was a huge NFL star. One of the best defensive linemen in the game and the Washington Redskins signed him to a 7 year 100 million dollar contract. A good deal of it was guaranteed. He was an absolute disaster in Washington, and according to many he took the money and quit on the team. He was famously unable to complete a conditioning test set up by coach Mike Shanahan. This test was akin to the kind of thing players do in Junior High and was later completed by Mike Golic, a 47 year old former defensive lineman and ESPN analyst. 
 
In any case... is that going to happen to us with the Panda?

Look, I know it's only been 313 at bats, but Sandoval has looked terrible. Defense was a big part of how he was packaged to Red Sox fans and he's not doing well at that either. Ideally you give long term contracts to driven players, players like Pedroia who will do whatever it takes to win... and you really have to question the drive of someone who is as heavy as Sandoval is. Lest I get accused of taking a low blow, we know for a fact that Pablo Sandoval left the Giants because they wanted to put him on a weight regimen. He felt so disrespected by the team that he began his career with that he refused to consider their offer all because they wanted him to watch his weight? And we came along and committed 95 million to him? 
 
I'll admit it, I'm overweight, and statistically speaking, a few of you are too, but we're not professional athletes. They are paid to maintain their bodies. I'm reminded of a video from 2010 where Jason Varitek had his chef/personal trainer come over in the morning, make him a healthy protein packed breakfast, kick his ass for several hours and then make him a healthy lunch. Varitek was 10 years older than Sandoval is now. He was already on the downside of his career and a huge hero in Boston but he worked tirelessly to get the most out of his body. Can you imagine Sandoval doing anything like this? 

To recycle the article from before, I think this is a great quote from Ortiz:

 
 
As great and sensible as that sentiment is, Ortiz seems to be talking about maintenance. About doing what's needed to maintain his agility. Sandoval needs to reinvent his approach to fitness, and we signed him knowing specifically that he left the team that signed him as a kid in Venezuela and knows him best because they put pressure on him to do so. 
 
No, the sky isn't falling but Sandoval has been in decline offensively every year after his magnificent 2011. Are we being dragged down by a player who, like Albert Haynesworth, took the money and won't do what's necessary to earn it? 

Haynesworth was a known headcase who showed up to play when money was on the line. Panda has shown to be a good clubhouse guy who has come up big in crucial spots. There are about 10,000 better player comps you could have used rather than Haynesworth. Sandoval also has better numbers than Beltre, Headley, and many others this year.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Haynesworth was a known headcase who showed up to play when money was on the line. Panda has shown to be a good clubhouse guy who has come up big in crucial spots. There are about 10,000 better player comps you could have used rather than Haynesworth. Sandoval also has better numbers than Beltre, Headley, and many others this year.

 
Can you source the bolded?

 

[dcmissle]

Having had a front seat to the Haynesworth show -- here, not in Boston --  I can't think of any individual I'd put in his category.  He was immensely talented.  He also was totally unprofessional and into it solely for the money.  Once he got that big contract, game over.
 
It's a form of libel to suggest that underperformance + overweight = Albert Haynesworth.

 

[semsox]

The last four years his OPS has gone 909/789/758/739 so 691 is almost predictable.  He can't hit left-handers at all and that's been true for awhile and it's getting worse, but it's no great shocker. 
 
I think he was signed to play third and hit righthanded pitching and he does have an .803 OPS vs. RHP which is OK.
His capability is really as a platoon third baseman.  I'm not sure he's a good enough hitter to be a regular platoon first baseman or DH.
 

 
Since abandoning switch hitting, he's actually put up respectable numbers vs. lefties, albeit with essentially no power and the usual SSS caveat. He's put up a .300/.300/.325 line in 40 PAs as a lefty vs. LHP after starting the year .071/.114/0.71 in 44 PAs as a righty vs. LHP. 

 

[crystalline]

Since Haynesworth is mentioned, if you haven't read his letter to his 15 yo self, it's pretty good.
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/albert-haynesworth-letter-to-my-younger-self/
 
And I agree that the topic question will be answered over time.

That is really good, thanks for posting it.

 

[nvalvo]

I think they should have DL'd him when he had the knee injury. Over the next 15 games, he put up a .160/.192/.160/.352 line in 52 PA, and made a bunch of poor throws from third. 
 
You have to figure Devin Marrero or someone could have put up a better line than that while Pablo recuperated his knee, and his season numbers would look a fair amount better (a .760ish OPS) without that two-week period weighing them down.
 
You could make a pretty similar point about Hanley's shoulder. I think these guys *are* conscious of the big deals they've signed, and are reluctant to miss time. It hurts the team. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

I remember some folks were disappointed in Beltre defense at 3B in 2010 at the start.  Hopefully this is just a SSS thing, but the mid-season numbers are much worse than Beltre so maybe not.    As for his offense, his regular season numbers were not all that impressive in recent years and there was a noticeble declining trend .  I was puzzled by the signing given his weight and that declining trend, but thought maybe his batted ball charts suggested him to be a much better hitter at Fenway.   He has been a much better hitter at home as his H-A splits indicates.  
 
Pablos inability to hit from the right side drastically reduces his value at Fenway though, and on the road for that matter.   One would have expected his RH numbers to improve at Fenway.   While scrapping switch hitting might make sense for Victorino since it means he is hitting RH all the time at Fenway, scrapping RH hitting to bat LH makes little sense for Pablo at Fenway. Watching him bat against Miller from the left side last series was painful.
 
As for the weight, Prince Fielder is showing fat guys can still hit north of 30.  However, I think you have to put the time in the gym and I am not so sure Pablo has done that after his big pay day.  Pablo does not look to me as if he is carrying his weight as well as he did with the Giants, so maybe this is a conditioning issue.

 

[In my lifetime]

 
 
Pablos inability to hit from the right side drastically reduces his value at Fenway though, and on the road for that matter.   One would have expected his RH numbers to improve at Fenway.   While scrapping switch hitting might make sense for Victorino since it means he is hitting RH all the time at Fenway, scrapping RH hitting to bat LH makes little sense for Pablo at Fenway. Watching him bat against Miller from the left side last series was painful.
 

 
I don't think watching him bat LH against LHP can be much more painful than his attempts to bat RH against them.  This year in 42 ABs:  .048/.091/.048 with an OPS of .139.  That is a total of 2 singles. 
Hitting LH against LHP he has a BA in 40 ABs of .325  (13 hits including 1 double).
 
So while the samples are extremely small, giving up switch hitting does not look like it has hurt Panda or the RS. 

 

[threecy]

As for the weight, Prince Fielder is showing fat guys can still hit north of 30.

I think it's a little early to draw that conclusion.  He's 31 and he missed most of his age 30 season.  His father's last big year was at age 32.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I think it's a little early to draw that conclusion.  He's 31 and he missed most of his age 30 season.  His father's last big year was at age 32.

 
Mo Vaughn's best season was arguably 1998 when he was 30. He was never the same player after that. Also we were in a similar position to the Giants then. Vaughn was a big star and pretty well loved in Boston. Duquette let him go due to his weight and clashes with management. Vaughn had weight clauses in his contract, but he was obstinate and refused to let the team weigh him. Eventually, of course, we drew a line in the sand, like San Francisco did with Sandoval. The Angels came along and ignored the warning signs, like we did with Sandoval, and... gave him 6 years and 80 million dollars. (About $114 million in 2015 dollars.) 
 
Like Sandoval, I don't think Vaughn maliciously "quit on his team" or anything like that... but I do feel both cases have worrying similarities, mainly that both players refused/are refusing to address a looming problem. Vaughn was still a decent hitter for 3 years of that deal but he never came close to the kind of offensive production he had in Boston. Prince Fielder's estranged dad went downhill in his 30's, Carlos Lee was a big star who started falling apart after age 32, that seems to be the book on overweight hitters. 
 
As I said, I'm throwing stones from my glass house over here, but professional athletes have access to state of the art fitness facilities and professional chefs. 

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Is a 691 OPS in year one really about what we expected? The guy has been terrible. His approach at the plate makes Pierzynski look like Wade Boggs. For a team to be so averse to long term deals, and then hand one to a fat guy with declining stats, no discipline at the plate, and who seemed to have a dislike of they only organization he'd ever known and who he had won three titles with because they dare suggested he lose weight is baffling.

I'm beginning to fear this is like Carl Crawford all over again. Not sure why the front office didn't learn its lesson the first time. Wouldn't count on the Dodgers bailing us out on this one.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I'm beginning to fear this is like Carl Crawford all over again. Not sure why the front office didn't learn its lesson the first time. Wouldn't count on the Dodgers bailing us out on this one.

 
To this day I still can't figure out what went wrong with Carl Crawford, or what lesson we could learn from it. 

I mean, I 100% didn't want the Red Sox to get him, and I thought they vastly overpaid... but once he was signed I resigned myself to it. At least he's a star defensive player who grinds and works hard. We'll be overpaying him, but at least he'll be a clubhouse leader, continue having a 110 OPS+ and winning Gold Gloves...

Inexplicably he became a huge malcontent, dropped all strike zone judgement and was a huge disaster. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

To this day I still can't figure out what went wrong with Carl Crawford, or what lesson we could learn from it. 
I mean, I 100% didn't want the Red Sox to get him, and I thought they vastly overpaid... but once he was signed I resigned myself to it. At least he's a star defensive player who grinds and works hard. We'll be overpaying him, but at least he'll be a clubhouse leader, continue having a 110 OPS+ and winning Gold Gloves...
Inexplicably he became a huge malcontent, dropped all strike zone judgement and was a huge disaster.

I can't remember hearing anything about Crawford being a malcontent. He just wasn't very good - for whatever reason.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I can't remember hearing anything about Crawford being a malcontent. He just wasn't very good - for whatever reason.

 
I guess he kept most of his feelings bottled up while he was actually in Boston, but he seemed deeply unhappy here and said as much after he left. He described his time in Boston as "a scar that I think will never go away" that his treatment from the Boston media was "the worst thing [he's] ever experienced" and he also said "That place is going to be the same forever and I don't want no part of it,"
 
He was incredibly unhappy in Boston and it seemed so incredibly out of character. If the lesson to be learned from him is to be wary about guys from tiny markets who haven't ever felt fan/media pressure I'm not sure how it relates to Sandoval which is what my whole point was earlier. 

 

[crystalline]

 
To this day I still can't figure out what went wrong with Carl Crawford, or what lesson we could learn from it. 

I mean, I 100% didn't want the Red Sox to get him, and I thought they vastly overpaid... but once he was signed I resigned myself to it. At least he's a star defensive player who grinds and works hard. We'll be overpaying him, but at least he'll be a clubhouse leader, continue having a 110 OPS+ and winning Gold Gloves...

Inexplicably he became a huge malcontent, dropped all strike zone judgement and was a huge disaster. 

He was never a great hitter. A 110 OPS+ for an outfielder is not amazing.

The year before he came to the Sox he had a 135 OPS+. He never came close to that afterwards.

The Red Sox must have thought he was likely to repeat the 135 OPS+ with good defense. I can't really imagine the 110 OPS+ guy was worth what they paid.

Edit: corner outfielders average OPS+ in the 2000s is 110. http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2009/09/ops-by-position-and-decade.html?m=1
Average production can be quite valuable, but Crawford was paid as if he was better than average. The Crawford contract has been a head scratcher from the day it was signed. I would love to know what the Sox were thinking.

 

[BosRedSox5]

He was never a great hitter. A 110 OPS+ for an outfielder is not amazing.

The year before he came to the Sox he had a 135 OPS+. He never came close to that afterwards.

The Red Sox must have thought he was likely to repeat the 135 OPS+ with good defense. I can't really imagine the 110 OPS+ guy was worth what they paid.

 
Sure, it's not great for a corner outfielder but I seriously doubt the Red Sox thought he would continue his hitting from 2010. Crawford had almost 5,400 plate appearances before signing with Boston. It doesn't seem smart to look at a guy's contract year, see large boosts in most every offensive category and keep it up. 

IIRC defense was starting to take more and more precedence among baseball front offices and the Red Sox in particular. Gonzalez was partially acquired for his defense after all. Crawford was a solid 3-4 WAR player for 5 out of the previous 7 years... the exceptions being a high of 2010 (6.8) and a low of 2008 (1.3). They had to be thinking that his total value would remain high even when his offensive production settled back down. 

A couple years earlier the Yankees gave Mark Teixeira a similar contract for similar overall value, and the year before that the Cardinals gave Matt Holliday a huge deal and he arguably provided more overall value to that point than Crawford. 

 

[crystalline]

Teixeira had a ~150 OPS+, and additionally that was with a high OBP, which is about 3x more important for run generation than SLG. That 150 OPS+ is far far higher than Crawford.

I just don't trust the public defensive metrics so I don't know how they contribute. But I cannot believe the Sox thought Crawford would give them a 110 OPS+ at an outfield corner, and be worth that contract even with the best defense ever played. I'm open to arguments about how much his defense really was worth, though.

 

[MikeM]

 
To this day I still can't figure out what went wrong with Carl Crawford, or what lesson we could learn from it. 
 

 
Don't hand out any $20m'ish/per contracts if the first stop on the after-logic train is going to leave you heavily emphasizing a player's defensive value?
 
Seems like a fairly straight forward lesson to me. 

 

[AlNipper49]

At the time of the Crawford signings I believe one of the big reasons the front office gave to the overpay was the scarcity of OFers on the market for the few seasons after that.

It's not like they didn't do their homework on him. They had him tailed for christs sake.

He just didn't live up to his contract. They gambled and lost.

 

[keninten]

At the time of the Crawford signings I believe one of the big reasons the front office gave to the overpay was the scarcity of OFers on the market for the few seasons after that.

It's not like they didn't do their homework on him. They had him tailed for christs sake.

He just didn't live up to his contract. They gambled and lost.

Sounds like what people were saying this off season about 3B.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

At the time of the Crawford signings I believe one of the big reasons the front office gave to the overpay was the scarcity of OFers on the market for the few seasons after that.

It's not like they didn't do their homework on him. They had him tailed for christs sake.

He just didn't live up to his contract. They gambled and lost.

They had him "tailed" by Allard Baird, who was in charge of evaluating him and finding out if he would be a good fit in Boston and deciding if he would play well here. That was an utter failure. When Baird got promoted in Feb. 2011, being the one in charge of the evaluation of Crawford was given as one of his "accomplishments." That signing was a combination of overvaluing flawed defensive stats, a player who didn't fit in with the team or its ballpark, and horrible evaluation by Baird. It was a big mistake from day one. 
 
There were a lot of red flags about the Sandoval signing from day one as well. Baird is our top player personnel exec, no doubt he gave a big thumbs up on Sandoval too.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Edit: corner outfielders average OPS+ in the 2000s is 110. http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2009/09/ops-by-position-and-decade.html?m=1
Average production can be quite valuable, but Crawford was paid as if he was better than average. The Crawford contract has been a head scratcher from the day it was signed. I would love to know what the Sox were thinking.

 
Average-or-better hitting plus elite defense and baserunning adds up to a very good player. The problem is that the Sox got none of those things. Every aspect of Crawford's game collapsed dramatically in Boston. He went from being a 7-win player to replacement level in one year. Granted that he was never really a 7-win player, that's still a pretty amazing plunge for a 29-year-old. I wonder if anybody has ever tanked quite so spectacularly in his first FA year. 

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Wasn't Crawford playing hurt the whole time he was here (wrist/elbow)? And to bring it back to the topic of the thread, I think Sandoval should have gone on the DL (as nvalvo above said) in May. 
 
Furthermore regarding Sandoval, is there any reason to think he's doing things differently from how he did them back in San Francisco when he was good and productive? Or is that the problem now?

 

[jscola85]

 
Average-or-better hitting plus elite defense and baserunning adds up to a very good player. The problem is that the Sox got none of those things. Every aspect of Crawford's game collapsed dramatically in Boston. He went from being a 7-win player to replacement level in one year. Granted that he was never really a 7-win player, that's still a pretty amazing plunge for a 29-year-old. I wonder if anybody has ever tanked quite so spectacularly in his first FA year. 

 
Mike Hampton?  Went from a 3.14 ERA to a 5.41 ERA going from the Mets to the Rockies, dropping from a 5-WAR year to replacement level overnight.

 

[joe dokes]

Ed Whitson went from a 2.7 to (-.7) when he went from SD to NYY.

 

[C4CRVT]

I don't suspect that pitchers and 3Bmen have all that much in common. But when Beckett had a rough hear here in 06, he rebounded and had a damned fine 2007. Maybe the year will be sufficiently frustrating for him that he'll spend the offseason getting right and be able to put up a good year (every other year).

 

[Clears Cleaver]

he was so late getting his glove down on that ball hit by Pujols....it really looked as if his stomach got in the way on the NESN replay. LOL
 
The issue is he has been horrendous in the field and really awful vs LHP and his physique is easy to blame. But, optics are optics and right now he is a overweight, overpaid player on an underperforming team that is impossible to watch on a day-to-day basis. Rarely does this end well. My guess is the Sox will send him out by the end of next year, subsidizing most of the contract.

 

[NDame616]

he was so late getting his glove down on that ball hit by Pujols....it really looked as if his stomach got in the way on the NESN replay. LOL
 
The issue is he has been horrendous in the field and really awful vs LHP and his physique is easy to blame. But, optics are optics and right now he is a overweight, overpaid player on an underperforming team that is impossible to watch on a day-to-day basis. Rarely does this end well. My guess is the Sox will send him out by the end of next year, subsidizing most of the contract.

And who do we have to replace him (and please whatever you do, do not say Hanley) who will preform that much better than him?

Sandoval is clearly overpaid but it isn't like he's hitting .200 with 2 HRS. I don't think he's anywhere near "send him out and eat most of his contract " territory

 

[AB in DC]

[Just venting a bit, sorry, please ignore]

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Seems like time to send him to the bench for Holt for a few games, just to get through to him. 

Quit treating the main board like a game thread. If you aren't going to put any thought or effort into your posts then don't hit the Post button.