Baseball thoughts without threads

[AlNipper49]

Today Bobby Bonilla is being paid approximately 1.2 million by the Mets. These payments will go on for another two decades.

To put this in context, he'll make make than Russell Wilson does this year

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Hasn't played for them since 2001.

 

[johnnywayback]

Today Bobby Bonilla is being paid approximately 1.2 million by the Mets. These payments will go on for another two decades.

To put this in context, he'll make make than Russell Wilson does this year

 
I love Bobby Bonilla Day.  And I'd like to think that, if I were to sign a contract for that much money, I'd do some serious deferrals, too, just for the psychological lift of knowing I have a seven-figure no-show job for decades to come.

 

[mauf]

How would this have worked out for Bobby-Bo if Wilpon hadn't found a way to muddle through after losing the bulk of his fortune in the Madoff fraud? 

 

[DJnVa]

This is more than Mike Trout will make this year.
 
Long live Bobby Bonilla.

 

[ivanvamp]

That really is incredible.  
 

 

Hasn't played for them since 2001.

 
Actually, 1999!!  (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bonilbo01.shtml)
 
But at least he was good for them in 1999:  119 ab, .160/.277/.303/.579, 49 ops+, -1.4 bWAR

 

[TheoShmeo]

Would you trade Brock Holt for Ben Zobrist, straight up?
 
Before this season started, you would.  Probably pretty quickly.  Zobrist had a track record.
 
Now you would have to think about it. 
 
Or am I wrong?

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Ahh, 8% interest rates. How I miss you.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Ahh, 8% interest rates. How I miss you.

 
Yeah the rate is the only out of whack thing here compared with today's rate.  Everyone likes to mock the Mets (it's pretty easy in most cases) but this is a simple deferred compensation arrangement and really nothing to make a big deal out of.  Are people going to laugh at the Nats when they're still paying Scherzer in 2028?

 

[AlNipper49]

That really is incredible.  
 

 
 
Actually, 1999!!  (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bonilbo01.shtml)
 
But at least he was good for them in 1999:  119 ab, .160/.277/.303/.579, 49 ops+, -1.4 bWAR

View attachment 1172

 

[rembrat]

Would you trade Brock Holt for Ben Zobrist, straight up?
 
Before this season started, you would.  Probably pretty quickly.  Zobrist had a track record.
 
Now you would have to think about it. 
 
Or am I wrong?

 
I wouldn't do it just going off their ages. There is a 7 year gap there which is huge in today's game.
 
Zobrist also spends most of his time in the OF these days. Brock can pick it anywhere.

 

[Hagios]

 
I love Bobby Bonilla Day.  And I'd like to think that, if I were to sign a contract for that much money, I'd do some serious deferrals, too, just for the psychological lift of knowing I have a seven-figure no-show job for decades to come.

 
Unfortunately he called 877-Cash-Now and spent it all on bling. It was good while it lasted.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

 
I wouldn't do it just going off their ages. There is a 7 year gap there which is huge in today's game.
 
Zobrist also spends most of his time in the OF these days. Brock can pick it anywhere.

I think the question the Sox will have to answer is who will you trade Brock for. He is, in my mind, the new Zobrist, who is getting paid $7.5 million this year.  There will be a market for Holt at the trade deadline. He strikes me as exactly the kind of mid-season pickup who can help a team make the playoffs.

 

[nattysez]

Don't forget about Goose!  From 1984:
 

Gossage's new contract, details of which have been circulated to baseball offices in recent days, includes guaranteed salaries totaling $4,625,000 and deferred payments from 1990 through 2016 that on paper total $5.33 million but that realistically have a value computed at $1,626,099. That makes the total value of the contract $6,251,099, or an average of $1,250,220 a year.
 

 

[Hagios]

I think the question the Sox will have to answer is who will you trade Brock for. He is, in my mind, the new Zobrist, who is getting paid $7.5 million this year.  There will be a market for Holt at the trade deadline. He strikes me as exactly the kind of mid-season pickup who can help a team make the playoffs.

 
What value do you put on having guys with a plus makeup in your organization? Are there spillovers? I tried to do a search and could only come up with one study, but it does include a literature review and finds that there are significant spillovers:
 

After controlling for team effects, 6 ballpark effects, manager effects, and individual player effects, the regression analysis revealed that teammate statistics contributed significantly to individual performance: “Pitchers post lower ERAs if other pitchers on their team played well in the same season or in the previous season; batters achieve higher averages if their batting colleagues perform well in the current season” (Papps, p. 18).

In addition to team performance as a whole, he showed that an increase in manager quality also improves the performance of individual pitchers and batters. Moreover, he found that the manager’s winning percentage from his past teams was relatively more significant compared to managing experience

 
Those studies did not specifically focus on plus makeup guys, but I suspect they'd find something similar. In fact, I wonder if plus makeups are one of the few remaining market inefficiencies.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Are people going to laugh at the Nats when they're still paying Scherzer in 2028?

 
Yes. 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Pretty sure the Sox will be paying Manny for many more years.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Pretty sure the Sox will be paying Manny for many more years.

 
Yeah I was going to mention that but since he isn't on Cots I got lazy.  But here are the details (posted in 2011):
 
 

Ramirez, who left baseball after his second bout with steroid accusations, will reportedly be receiving money from the Boston Red Sox until he is 54 years old.
 
As reported on Boston.com, Ramirez is going to be paid $32 million over the course of 16 years. His first payment in that deferred sum comes July 1 of this year. Basically, he'll be paid about $2 million per year until he's 54. (via CBS Sports)
 
 

 
 

The Globe reports that Ramirez will be paid $1,968,677 in 2011, and the payments increase slightly through 2026, when Ramirez will receive $2,043,809. Not a bad for a retired guy, huh?
 

 

[santadevil]

 
Are people going to laugh at the Nats when they're still paying Scherzer in 2028?

Probably, but Bonilla will still have 8 more years if payments after that.

 

[santadevil]

Garry Templeton being paid by the Pads until 2019.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=aHiUVdD2IZCHyATrsYCADQ&url=http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-02/sports/sp-19413_1_garry-templeton&ved=0CBsQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGwpQc7zrmvNoJ5fiZSIlT1TprwWQ

 

[swiftaw]

Today Bobby Bonilla is being paid approximately 1.2 million by the Mets. These payments will go on for another two decades.

To put this in context, he'll make make than Russell Wilson does this year

And they don't end until 2035.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

And they don't end until 2035.

I presume that's what "two decades" means.

 

[swiftaw]

I presume that's what "two decades" means.

Ha, totally missed that part.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Manny will get paid until 2026? Wonder what year he will cash all the checks? I'm guessing 2036.

 

[TheYaz67]

Hope all the evangelical Christians on the Texas Rangers don't glance at the standings today and notice their current runs allowed and runs scored numbers....

 

[SoxJox]

Have a close friend out in the Bay area that sent me the link to The Players' Tribune - the Voice of the Game.
 
As a Giants fan, of course he found The New Kid a worthwhile read.  I agree.
 
And a short video clip on David Ortiz - Just a KId from Santa Domingo

 

[Leather]

Manny will get paid until 2026? Wonder what year he will cash all the checks? I'm guessing 2036.

That was Ricky.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

That was Ricky.

 
That was Manny, too:
 

That was Boston's initial offer to Ramirez. And it wasn't nearly enough. It was about $53 million light, even for a man who once left two weeks worth of salary behind in a cowboy boot, once got a concerned call from Cleveland management after forgetting to cash five consecutive paychecks and once left $40,000 cash in his Impala's glove compartment.

 

[Leather]

Jesus.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Toronto's run differential is now 215.  Only one other team is in triple digits- St. Louis at 114.  If they don't win the division and have to play in the ridiculous rat tail game it would be a travesty.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Toronto's run differential is now 215.  Only one other team is in triple digits- St. Louis at 114.  If they don't win the division and have to play in the ridiculous rat tail game it would be a travesty.

 
They're currently 9 games under their expected W-L record. John Gibbons' teams are a combined 24 games under in his managerial career. With better-than-average luck, they'd already be over 100 wins, not at 86-64 and still in a division race.

 

[DanoooME]

Toronto's run differential is now 215.  Only one other team is in triple digits- St. Louis at 114.  If they don't win the division and have to play in the ridiculous rat tail game it would be a travesty.

 
And the Rangers lead the West with a -5 differential.  Crazy stuff

 

[jon abbey]

The dumbest is that right now PIT and CHC have the second and third best records in all of baseball, yet only one can even make it to the NLDS where they'll face the team with the best record. It's a truly ridiculous system currently.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The dumbest is that right now PIT and CHC have the second and third best records in all of baseball, yet only one can even make it to the NLDS where they'll face the team with the best record. It's a truly ridiculous system currently.

 
Nah, it's a unfortunate series of events this year. If this set of circumstances were to happen every season, it would signal the need for change. But it doesn't

 

[Al Zarilla]

George Springer just hit a big triple to knock in 2 and give the Astros the lead over the Angels. After he gets to third, he looks into his dugout clapping hands, all excited and yells "let's go." Guys always do this. You already did the big thing. Isn't there anything else they could come up with? Better than a crotch grab I guess.

The other one is when guys strike out, especially on a great pitch, they head back toward the dugout, then turn and look back at the mound, or the pitcher. Is that some kind of information gathering for their next AB?

 

[jon abbey]

 
Nah, it's a unfortunate series of events this year. If this set of circumstances were to happen every season, it would signal the need for change. But it doesn't

Dump divisions and it will never happen again.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Dump divisions and it will never happen again.

 
I'll agree to this if you agree that all teams will travel the same amount of miles per season with a balanced scheduled

 

[jon abbey]

 
I'll agree to this if you agree that all teams will travel the same amount of miles per season with a balanced scheduled

 
Balanced schedules would be another step forward, but I'm even just saying keep the schedules the same for now and just dump the divisions and have the top four teams make the postseason in each league, 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. If you need to keep the idiotic 4 vs 5 coin flip game, fine, but this would still be a major step forward to start. 

(And of course dump the idiotic "All-Star game determines home-field in the World Series" rule, that one is so nonsensical it's hard to believe.)

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Balanced schedules would be another step forward, but I'm even just saying keep the schedules the same for now and just dump the divisions and have the top four teams make the postseason in each league, 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. If you need to keep the idiotic 4 vs 5 coin flip game, fine, but this would still be a major step forward to start. 

 
It would be a huge mistake. 
 
More than any of the major sports, baseball is a regional rivalry-based game. You'd throw that away for the sake of a minimal benefit that only occurs in an outlier season.

 

[jon abbey]

Fine, keep the schedules the way they are, just eliminate the divisions as I said above. You're not cutting into any regional rivalries then. 
 
Same thing as the NBA, keep the schedule the way it is but then seed the best 16 teams at the end 1-16 regardless of conference. Both of those would go a long way to rewarding regular season performance.

 

[jon abbey]

Or you could even keep everything exactly the same as it is now, and the five teams that make the postseason are seeded 1-5 based on record. If that means the Mets and Dodgers play the coin flip game, good, because that's more fair for everyone.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Or you could even keep everything exactly the same as it is now, and the five teams that make the postseason are seeded 1-5 based on record. If that means the Mets and Dodgers play the coin flip game, good, because that's more fair for everyone.

 
I like this better than the other alternatives you propose. The prize for winning the division is a ticket to the postseason. Want a better seeding? Win more games

 

[glennhoffmania]

I agree with Jon 101%. There shouldn't be a prize for winning a shitty division if four other teams in your league won more games. And the unbalanced schedule exacerbates the problem by letting a decent team beat up on shitty division rivals while a team in a strong division has to face good teams all season.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Well then, let's eliminate leagues altogether and have the teams with the 10 best records be seeded for the playoffs. That way, no team with a good record in one league has to sit out while teams with lesser records in the other league are in the playoffs

 

[jon abbey]

Well, you could keep leagues intact and still do that, that's what I think the NBA needs to do next (they have dumped divisions essentially this past offseason).
 
But yeah, if you could make the DH standard across all of baseball, that would also make me a happy camper but I'm not holding my breath on that (or any of this really, but that even more). If a handful of pitchers are good enough to hit, nothing's stopping them from pitching/DHing on the same day, but no one needs to see the 90+ % of pitchers that are automatic outs.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

(And of course dump the idiotic "All-Star game determines home-field in the World Series" rule, that one is so nonsensical it's hard to believe.)

I generally agree that it's nonsensical but MLB seems committed for logistical reasons to the idea that home field needs to be determined ahead of time (i.e. you can't just use best record). So what would be a good solution? I prefer the current system to the old one of simply alternating leagues, which is even more nonsensical. Maybe "league that wins gets home field advantage for next season"?

 

[jon abbey]

Well, they could give it to the team from the league with the better record against the other that season.
 
Under the current 'system', there will still be probably 7-8 candidates to host the WS into the weekend of Oct 4, which is only three weeks lead time, so unless it's a neutral site (please god no never), I don't understand how deciding HFA early really helps anyone.

 

[LogansDad]

Agreed, jon.  I mean, it's not like home field for the Championship Series' is determined in advance, and they seem to do okay with that.  I get the World Series is a bigger deal, but is it really that much more preparation?  

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The other one is when guys strike out, especially on a great pitch, they head back toward the dugout, then turn and look back at the mound, or the pitcher. Is that some kind of information gathering for their next AB?

 
When they look at the center field scoreboard to see the pitch information?

 

[glennhoffmania]

Well then, let's eliminate leagues altogether and have the teams with the 10 best records be seeded for the playoffs. That way, no team with a good record in one league has to sit out while teams with lesser records in the other league are in the playoffs

 
While no system will be perfect you can certainly improve the system to make it less ridiculous.  Playing 72 games against 4 teams in your division while competing with the other 10 teams for a WC spot isn't even close.