Plympton91 said:You're being somewhat obtuse. To read your posts, one might think that you view minor league performance as basically random and noninformative about big-league outcomes.
Both Betts and Xander have minor league track records from which we can draw inference in addition to their major league sample sizes. Indeed, if you are saying that their current big league samples are insufficient, then we should still be putting a large amount of weight on those minor league projections.
Within that record, we can look at things like walk and strikeout rates that tend to be more predictive than balls in play stats (favors Betts in both, and on K rates quite significantly so), the extent to which they sustained their production as they moved up levels (hard to interpret due to difference in age), and whether there is evidence in their minor league record of prolonged slumps (don't know).
We also have to incorporate what we know about the very real and observable trait of speed, in which Betts crushes Xander. Speed mitigates slumps both through the ability to leg out extra infield hits and turn singles into doubles, while also providing additional value through stolen bases and advancing on batted balls when slumps do hit.
Finally, the rut that Xander got into this season is almost a historically bad outlier. If Betts struggles, I bet his slump is significantly shorter and less deep simply based on what a normal rookie slump looks like independently of how you view his skill set relative to Xander.
They're both great young players who will have their ups and downs on offense and probably frustrate us on defense next year for different reasons.
This can't be said enough. Really, look at his June/July/August splits. I've never seen a player who isn't completely horrible have a three month stretch that bad. It's kind of a miracle that he ended up the season with a .660 OPS after about 300 PAs of absolutely putrid production. Injury, bad luck, inability to adjust, maybe all of them at once, I don't know what prompted that slump, but seeing as that was the major driving factor behind his subpar season with the bat, I'm actually petty bullish on Xander for 2015. I wouldn't really count on a drop that drastic happening again.