Bogaerts Bat

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

It's worth noting that the Red Sox are fourth in all of baseball in offensive WAR at the shortstop position. I can think of a lot of things to be more disappointed in than Bogaerts' batting.

 
It's not that I'm "disappointed" per se. He's...okay. I just see a lot of projections about what this team will look like down the road, and part of it revolves around Bogaert's production at SS. I'm just not sure we have what we think we have.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

Go ahead and point to whoever is claiming he's definitely going to be a superstar. I haven't seen anyone make that claim. Maybe I missed it.

 
Yeah, I was probably straw-manning it up a bit...but you can't deny there was a lot of hype.

 

[BoredViewer]

Just so we're clear... the thread is titled "Bogaerts Bat" - so that's what I'm talking about.
 
I don't think it's any stretch to say a lot of projections have centered around Bogaerts being a highly productive bat, no matter what position he ended up at longer term (not just that he could be a notch above a horde of light-hitting SS).  There has been talk of the progress he's making this year.  I'm just pointing out I think that while I think there might be a hint of some... I think it's mostly wishful thinking.  When he really starts making progress, I think we'll all take notice of him driving the ball harder and more often.  I don't see that, at all.  FWIW - my eyes do see him looking better in the field (but that's not what this topic is about).
 
Also, about projections and comparisons... sure, there's a a whole array of possible outcomes - but I remember quite a few fans of a certain butt-fumbling QB used to throw up age 23, 24, 25 comparisons between that guy and Brady --- with the conclusion... Sanchez will be Brady!  

 

[The X Man Cometh]

Just so we're clear... the thread is titled "Bogaerts Bat" - so that's what I'm talking about.
 
I don't think it's any stretch to say a lot of projections have centered around Bogaerts being a highly productive bat, no matter what position he ended up at longer term (not just that he could be a notch above a horde of light-hitting SS).  There has been talk of the progress he's making this year.  I'm just pointing out I think that while I think there might be a hint of some... I think it's mostly wishful thinking.  When he really starts making progress, I think we'll all take notice of him driving the ball harder and more often.  I don't see that, at all.  FWIW - my eyes do see him looking better in the field (but that's not what this topic is about).
 
Also, about projections and comparisons... sure, there's a a whole array of possible outcomes - but I remember quite a few fans of a certain butt-fumbling QB used to throw up age 23, 24, 25 comparisons between that guy and Brady --- with the conclusion... Sanchez will be Brady!  

 
Disregarding the baseball side of this discussion, comparing aging curves in the NFL to the MLB is ludicrous.
 
Brian Burke does some good discussion of QB growth and decline on Advanced Football Analytics and it looks absolutely nothing like a baseball player. Quarterbacks make marginal gains relative to their peers. They maybe jump a quartile. Baseball players go from best to worst and worst to best, and it happens for all kinds of reasons besides just aging.

 

[chrisfont9]

 
It's not that I'm "disappointed" per se. He's...okay. I just see a lot of projections about what this team will look like down the road, and part of it revolves around Bogaert's production at SS. I'm just not sure we have what we think we have.

Yeah, I know. That's baseball.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I never saw Bogaerts play in the minors, but seeing the numbers as he flew through the system at such a young age, I assumed he was "a natural."
 
Seeing him in the majors, it seems like nothing comes naturally to Xander. I think he has to be a grinder, working really hard to improve. We can argue whether these soft hits that are boosting his average mean he's getting better at the plate, but there's no doubt he's improved in the field. He's clearly better defensively, and it looks like he's gaining more confident every day.
 
This gives me real hope that he will get better at the plate, too, because it shows that he is willing to put in the work and is receptive to coaching. I don't think he'll ever be the MVP candidate he was envisioned as a couple of years ago, but I think he will be a good offensive player.

 
 
What you're probably seeing isn't that he wasn't a "natural," as much as that  this is the first time he hasn't been able to succeed immediately based on his talent and work ethic--the first time that he's really struggled and has had to make adjustments. For lesser players, that process happens earlier.
 
No he's not Mike Trout but he's also not Kevin Youkilis, a very good player despite marginal baseball athleticism. Bogaerts may have an excellent work ethic and makeup (something I've heard mentioned before), but you don't get to be his level of prospect based on grit and grind alone.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Let's look at the age 22 seasons for each of them.
 
Jeter: 101 OPS+ at the major league level over 157 games. He spent most of his age 21 season in the minors. Followed it with a 103 OPS+ year then broke out in his third major league season.
 
Nomar: Spent most of it in the minors, and over 24 major league games had an 83 OPS+. Broke out the next year. Exploded the year after that.
 
Tulo: 109 OPS+ over 157 major league games. Followed that with a 101 game campaign with an 85 OPS+. Broke out in his third full season.
 
Hanley: 116 OPS+ in 158 games. Rocketed up to a 145 the next year.
 
Reyes: 161 major league games at an 81 OPS+. 115 the following year. 102 the year after that.
 
ARod: 136 OPS+ over 161 games. It was his third full season. He's probably one of the ten greatest players off all time, though, so no surprise he was better at a younger age than Xander. (Yeah, he cheated... he's still one of the most incredibly talented players in the history of the game. His purple lips and slappy hands don't change that.)
 
Bogaerts: Currently at a 92 OPS+.
 
I think you, and many others, need to re-calibrate your expectations when evaluating offense in this run scoring environment. I see nothing when comparing Xander to these players, that suggests to me that he's having an abnormal adjustment period to the major leagues.
 
 
Go ahead and point to whoever is claiming he's definitely going to be a superstar. I haven't seen anyone make that claim. Maybe I missed it.

 
Thanks for the numbers. Though I have to admit, unfortunately I didn't come to your conclusion (or what I think your conclusion is). 
 
Nomar had a tiny sample, less than 100PA, and hadn't played in the majors before.
 
Everyone else is:
 
81
101
109
116
136
 
I'm not sure 92, for a guy who isn't very fast and doesn't project to have a lot of value from D, is fitting in too well.  I misread the initial post (oops!), but the only one less than him is the speedy Reyes. 
 
I'm on record as saying I think Xander is holding his own, and looking like he belongs in the majors. I think has is already around league average, and obviously young enough to get better than that.
 
But fair or not, thats not the prism through which many of us view Xander. It's as the #2 prospect in baseball, with upside to be the next MVP level talent on the Red Sox. Unfortunately, I also think the probability that he becomes that superstar is slightly less than it was 18 months ago, which to me is a mild disappointment.  
 
If he improves over the course of the season, maybe he fits in with most of those guys you mentioned.  Or maybe he breaks out next year, that would be just fine too.  But until we see it, I'm not sure I'd point to numbers like the ones you posted as necessarily reassuring (if you are talking about him becoming elite, not just a solid SS).
 
 
Edit:  fixed 

 

[nvalvo]

 
 
We're supposed to be stoked that Xander is at 92 so far this year?  How is he fitting in with those guys?
 

 
Well, you turned Reyes' OPS+ (81) into his games played (161) which skews things heavily, and I'm not sure that Nomar's 93 PA sample is so much smaller than Xander's 170 PA sample to warrant exclusion. Look at it this way: 
 
Age 22 seasons
 
136 - Alex Rodriguez
116 - Hanley Ramirez
109 - Troy Tulowitzki
101 - Derek Jeter
92 - Xander Bogaerts
83 - Nomar Garciaparra
81 - Jose Reyes
 
In this view, A-Rod is the real outlier.  

 

[radsoxfan]

 
 
Well, you turned Reyes' OPS+ (81) into his games played (161) which skews things heavily, and I'm not sure that Nomar's 93 PA sample is so much smaller than Xander's 170 PA sample to warrant exclusion. Look at it this way: 
 
Age 22 seasons
 
136 - Alex Rodriguez
116 - Hanley Ramirez
109 - Troy Tulowitzki
101 - Derek Jeter
92 - Xander Bogaerts
83 - Nomar Garciaparra
81 - Jose Reyes
 
In this view, A-Rod is the real outlier.  
 

 
Ha, relatively important point.  Fixed it….
 
That definitely skews it back to being more reasonable, though I still don't think an OPS+ of 92 is anything people should be excited about if you're looking through the "next superstar" glasses.  Especially since Reyes got a lot of value from speed and defense, unlike some of the other guys Xander is hoping to emulate. I'd also argue Normar's sample is half the size, and his first exposure to the majors, therefore significantly more excludable than Xander's.
 
Obviously  we're giving more weight to Xander's 92 this season in this comparison than it deserves given the small sample, we really need to wait for some more PAs.  But you combine it with the previous 600 PAs last year at 86 (at a younger age I know), it's at least mildly concerning.  
 
I'd have felt better if the Jeter/Tulo comps weren't clearly superior. If Xander ends up at least an OPS+ of 100 this year, I'll rescind my mildly disappointing label for his career to date. 

 

[nvalvo]

 
Ha, relatively important point.  Fixed it….
 
That definitely skews it back to being more reasonable, though I still don't think an OPS+ of 92 is anything people should be excited about if you're looking through the "next superstar" glasses.  Especially since Reyes got a lot of value from speed and defense, unlike some of the other guys Xander is hoping to emulate. 
 
Obviously  we're giving more weight to Xander's 92 this season than it probably deserves given the small sample, we really need to wait for some more PAs.  But when you combine it with the previous 600 PAs from the last 2 years (at a younger age I know), it's at least mildly concerning.  I'd have felt better if the Jeter/Tulo comps weren't much better.

 
I understand what you're saying. 
 
The bull case is that Bogaerts looks like he can stick at shortstop, which makes him a valuable player even with his present okay offensive line, although maybe not someone you give an Elvis Andrus-style extension to. Any further offensive development we get from him is gravy, and some amount is very likely to come. He's young, and he's improved his contact skills relative to last year, although he's not yet driving the ball the way we know he can. If he can maintain these good contact rates while hitting for decent power, *and* stick at shortstop? Then he's a star. 
 
The bear case is... Elvis Andrus. He had a similar line to Bogaerts as a 22 year old, and his plus defense turned that into a 4 WAR season and a huge extension that seemed predicated on the expectation that he would continue to improve with the bat. He hasn't. But he lacked Bogaerts' minor league offensive pedigree, especially in terms of ISO. 
 
Bryce Harper (WHO IS NOT A COMP FOR BOGAERTS EXCEPT AS A RECENT TOP FIVE PROSPECT OF THE SAME AGE WHO WAS ONLY PRETTY GOOD UNTIL HE BROKE OUT) had a disappointing season as a 21 year old last season, and people started to grumble that he was a bust relative to expectations. Now he's putting up Barry Bonds-type numbers. That counsels patience. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Ha, relatively important point.  Fixed it….
 
That definitely skews it back to being more reasonable, though I still don't think an OPS+ of 92 is anything people should be excited about if you're looking through the "next superstar" glasses.  Especially since Reyes got a lot of value from speed and defense, unlike some of the other guys Xander is hoping to emulate. I'd also argue Normar's sample is half the size, and his first exposure to the majors, therefore significantly more excludable than Xander's.

 
You're missing a major point in Xander's favor when comparing him to Nomar. Age is a huge huge huge factor. Nomar had his first full season at age 23. Bogaerts will be in his third full season by then. When we're talking about guys in their early twenties, that a massive difference.You can't compare Nomar's age 23 season to Bogaerts at age 22. You compare his age 22 season to Bogaerts' age 22. Or his age 21 to Bogaerts' age 21. While Bogaerts was struggling at the major league level with an 86 OPS+, Nomar was putting up a .722 OPS in AA. And now, at age 22, Bogaerts is showing signs of improvement over his first full campaign and has an OPS+ that lags behind the group mentioned above by a bit, but is still comparable. Nomar spent most of his age 22 season in AAA.
 
Dinging Bogaerts in his age 22 season because Nomar was better at age 23 is problematic.
 

Obviously  we're giving more weight to Xander's 92 this season in this comparison than it deserves given the small sample, we really need to wait for some more PAs.  But you combine it with the previous 600 PAs last year at 86 (at a younger age I know), it's at least mildly concerning.  
 
I'd have felt better if the Jeter/Tulo comps weren't clearly superior. If Xander ends up at least an OPS+ of 100 this year, I'll rescind my mildly disappointing label for his career to date. 

 
Well, first of all, my main point in pulling out those numbers was that only ARod was lighting the world on fire at age 22. That group was listed as examples of guys who lived up to the hype right out of the gate. The numbers paint a different picture, though. Young players, even players who ended up great, take time to adjust to major league pitching. As for Tulo being "clearly superior" he followed his 109 OPS+ at age 22 with an 85 OPS+ in his age 23 season. Seems an important data point when we're talking about guys living up to the hype.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
You're missing a major point in Xander's favor when comparing him to Nomar. Age is a huge huge huge factor. Nomar had his first full season at age 23. Bogaerts will be in his third full season by then. When we're talking about guys in their early twenties, that a massive difference.You can't compare Nomar's age 23 season to Bogaerts at age 22. 

 
Where did I compare Nomar's age 23 season to Xander's age 22 season? I agree 1 year makes a big difference.
 
The point is that the only data points we have on Xander are on the lower end when compared to other elite SS, even at the same age. Now certainly there have been players that played just like Xander at age 21 and 22, and then significantly improved.  But when he's already falling behind the curve of some of those elite guys who fit his potential profile, that's not a great sign.  
 
He may pick it up, but we aren't allowed to prospectively declare this one of Xander's down years (like we can retrospectively say for Reyes' age 22 year, or Tulo's age 23 season) and say he'll be in that group you mentioned that all had an above average season by the age of 23.  When we have a lot of data points already, it's easy to draw someones career arc.  When we only have a couple data points, and they aren't all that impressive, it's a bit harder to prospectively fill in the blanks.  Not everyone improves at the same rate. 
 
Put another way, if you can assure me that Xander will be an elite SS (i.e. we magically know his career arc already), then the last 700 PA are within reason for a way he could have started his career.  But if we don't know he will be an elite SS, these past 700 PA are also unfortunately within reason for someone who won't turn into anything special.   I'd feel better about his chances of jumping into that elite group if he had shown more to this point, that's all. As it stands, he's still got a shot, just not as good of a shot as I was hoping 18 months ago. 

 

[SumnerH]

I don't know.  After today, outside of the K rate any improvement is very marginal and might just be SSS.  A quick check of the BBR most similar hitters at 21 is all you need to see that guys don't just get better.  Is there a bell curve of expected results?

...

1. Fast and young-old players have a higher peak than the rest of the population.
2. Young-old players* peak at age 25, which is one year earlier than the general population.
3. Fast players age extremely well from their peaks at 26 to 31, then they lose on average fewer then five runs over five seasons. Young-old players lose more than 10 runs in the same time span.
4. Players with no plate discipline age similarly to the overall population.

*These players exhibit power at an early age with high number of walks and strikeouts.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Put another way, if you can assure me that Xander will be an elite SS (i.e. we magically know his career arc already), then the last 700 PA are within reason for a way he could have started his career.  But if we don't know he will be an elite SS, these past 700 PA are also unfortunately within reason for someone who won't turn into anything special.   I'd feel better about his chances of jumping into that elite group if he had shown more to this point, that's all. As it stands, he's still got a shot, just not as good of a shot as I was hoping 18 months ago. 

 
I'm not making the argument that he's assuredly going to be a superstar. I'm saying it's too early to be this down on him. He broke in and played a full season at a younger age than every guy on that list except for ARod. Because he's so young, I think it's a relatively safe bet he's going to continue getting better, even during the course of this year. I'm guessing his OPS+ is going to end up somewhere around 100 by the time we put a bow on this season. That would put him right in line with Jeter, one of the best hitting shortstops in the history of the game. That's not to say he will be Jeter, but this idea that he's clearly behind the superstar shortstops we've seen in the last couple decades at the same age is both premature and no where near accurate at this point.
 
And the reason for pointing out some of the down years some of these guys had after sold first full campaigns was not to suggest that Bogaerts is just having a down year in what will otherwise be a great career. It's to point out that all of these guys, except for ARod and Hanley, had some early career struggles. And Hanley had struggles later on. Struggling in your early twenties is just part of the process. Nomar is sort of an exceptions there as well, but again, he didn't play a full season until age 23.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It may seem cursory, but I don't think a highly touted played struggling a bit in his age 22 season - which is still showing improvement over his age 21 season which was also in the majors - says anything about his ability or likelihood to turn into a star player or even a superstar player. If a hundred something years of baseball has shown us anything it's that progression and advancement are not linear. Dozens upon dozens of superstars, MVPs, HoFs and generational players have struggled early on or have made their mark at a later age than X. I don't much see the point of comparing only SSs when trying to show in either direction what the tea leaves say about his future - players at any position develop on their own timetable.

Talk to me in three years, when he will be around the age most players break into the bigs. Right now he holding his own on both sides of the ball. I'm more than happy to sit back and see what he turns into, because I'm optimistic about it.

 

[jscola85]

X's K rate is down by nearly 9% this year.  I've felt his defense has looked a lot more consistent than last year too, far quicker reactions to balls off the bat, even if that's not showing up in UZR (small sample size).  He's also doing much better not trying to yank the ball - his pull % is down to 31% from 47% last year.
 
So we have a 22 year old SS who's slightly below average with his bat but improving in his approach at the plate and in the field, and people are disappointed about this?  Of the problems with this team right now, I put Xander pretty low on the list.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I don't think Andrus is a useful comp. He and Bogaerts are fundamentally different hitters. Bogaerts has power (based on his minor league track record) that he has not yet been able to translate to the majors mor than sporadically. Andrus has no power and has never shown otherwise.

There's no guarantee that Xander will hit for power in the majors, of course, but with Andrus is was obvious that he wouldn't.

 

[jasail]

This thread is a case study in the difficulty of balancing expectations for a blue chip prospect with the immensely difficult process of realizing potential as a professional baseball player. Similar to some in this thread, I've been underwhelmed by his performance at the plate so far in his career, which raises concerns about his status going forward. However, as others have pointed out, there are few players who come up at his age and have immediate success providing elite offense.

Considering progress in baseball is non-linear, it may be best to consider if his approach is trending the right way to put him in a position where he may make a big jump? I'd argue that affirmatively. He's cut down on his strikeouts, he is more balanced at the plate and he's looking to drive his pitch. There is still more that needs to be done in terms of better anticipating pitches in counts and picking up spin earlier but he's worlds better than last year. So, to me if he continues to make these small improvements, I'm more optimistic that it will click and he can make the jump from good to elite.

An additional plus is that he's a much better defensive player than anticipated. He has more range and is more confident in his fielding than he was last year or during his tenure in the minors. This may be attributing to his more marginal growth at the plate, as he's adjusted his build becoming leaner and may be focused more on his defense taking time and energy away from his offense.

IMO, he was always a guy that needed more time in the minors to polish his game on both sides, but was rushed up due to circumstance (WMBitis). So, now were watching him polish his game against much better competition and a more demanding level. This is a tremendous challenge for any kid that's in his early 20s. Good news is that while it's been slower than some may want or expect, he's been stepping up to the challenge rather than imploding.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
I'm saying it's too early to be this down on him. 

 
"Mild disappointment" to me just means that the last 18 months have been slightly worse than I expected, and I think the likelihood of the most positive of outcomes has gone down a bit.  I wouldn't say I'm down on Xander in a more general sense, just relative to perhaps unfair expectations.  
 
To me, his last 700 PA have him starting to slide just off the path you'd like for an elite player.  Not irrevocably off to be sure, but on the low end of the spectrum, to the point his chances to follow in the footsteps of Tulo and Jeter aren't as quite good as I hoped.   I don't think the numbers really have him fitting right in with those guys unless he picks it up a bit this year.
 
I'd certainly be happy if he put up around a 105 OPS+ starting now for the rest of the season to get his total over 100.  I'd definitely be more optimistic at that point. 
 
 
As a side note, anyone saying Xander is doing fine, isn't the problem with this team, is already a solid SS, etc.  I agree. My sense is that most do.   His ultimate projection is a separate discussion, so I'm trying not to conflate the two issues. 

 

[Devizier]

Comparing Xander to Nomar, Jeter, Rodriguez, et al. is a pretty high bar. I mean, there are great expectations for Bogaerts, but we're talking about three of the greatest shortstops in history. Tulowitski, health permitting, will also approach the pantheon. So let's use a more realistic gauge, shall we?
 
Player (wOBA)
 
Age 20
Bogaerts (0.304)
 
Age 21
Rollins (0.323)
Bogaerts (0.294)
Peralta (0.279)
 
Age 22
Furcal (0.355)
Gullen (0.354)
Rollins (0.320)
Bogaerts (0.308)
Peralta (0.279)
 
Age 23
Peralta (0.378)
Furcal (0.302)
Rollins (0.301)
Tejada (0.253)
Guillen (0.224)
 
Obviously, there's some caveats here -- Guillen's career didn't begin in earnest until his third (age 24) season. Furcal was injured in his second season. Xander will probably never be as good defensively as Rollins. But the point is, looking at say, the ~5th-10th best shortstops in recent history, you see a lot of variation in their early career performance. A lot of them took a while to break out. And while it might seem a *little* disappointing, wouldn't a Jhonny Peralta-like career be a good outcome for Bogaerts?

 

[radsoxfan]

And while it might seem a *little* disappointing, wouldn't a Jhonny Peralta-like career be a good outcome for Bogaerts?

If you asked me in November of 2013 if I could be guaranteed Peralta's career or roll the dice on Xander, I'd probably would have rolled the dice on Xander.

Again, perhaps my hopes and expectations were too high and I drank the cool aid. I wouldn't have considered a Peralta's career a "bad" outcome, just that I felt Xander had a good enough chance to be better that it was worth the risk.

Now? Probably a tougher decision for me. I might take Peralta's career.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Has there been any update on his wrist/arm that I missed?  All I've seen is that he supposedly didn't break anything.

 

[radsoxfan]

Has there been any update on his wrist/arm that I missed?  All I've seen is that he supposedly didn't break anything.

That's probably all we're gonna get and need to know.

Contusion... Will return when the pain subsides enough for him to swing a bat. Just have to wait and see.

 

[grimshaw]

If you asked me in November of 2013 if I could be guaranteed Peralta's career or roll the dice on Xander, I'd probably would have rolled the dice on Xander.

Again, perhaps my hopes and expectations were too high and I drank the cool aid. I wouldn't have considered a Peralta's career a "bad" outcome, just that I felt Xander had a good enough chance to be better that it was worth the risk.
 

I'm thinking that 85% or so would have agreed with you back then, myself included.
 
I'm sure those who are chiding others remarking on his performance to this point weren't expecting what he's done with the bat either, given what he showed upon his call up. But it's more en vogue to point to the numbers and say "Look, he isn't that bad!"
 
I'm on board with readjusting my expectations now as I've mentioned above, but I don't think drinking the Kool Aid was too isolated an instance.
 
The same exact thing is going to happen with Mookie if his numbers aren't eye-popping.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This...
 

 
"Mild disappointment" to me just means that the last 18 months have been slightly worse than I expected, and I think the likelihood of the most positive of outcomes has gone down a bit.  I wouldn't say I'm down on Xander in a more general sense, just relative to perhaps unfair expectations.

 
...followed by this...
 

If you asked me in November of 2013 if I could be guaranteed Peralta's career or roll the dice on Xander, I'd probably would have rolled the dice on Xander.

Again, perhaps my hopes and expectations were too high and I drank the cool aid. I wouldn't have considered a Peralta's career a "bad" outcome, just that I felt Xander had a good enough chance to be better that it was worth the risk.

Now? Probably a tougher decision for me. I might take Peralta's career.

 
...says to me that you are down on him more than is reasonable. He's young, and he's struggling. It happens. A lot. If your expectations were that he would be an All Star or MVP caliber player right out of the gate, then yes, they were too high. If they were just that he had a good chance to be that kind of player eventually and you've since decided Jhonny Peralta would be a win, then I think you are overreacting.
 

The same exact thing is going to happen with Mookie if his numbers aren't eye-popping.

 
And it should. These guys are extremely young to playing in the majors. That they are struggling should not be surprising and should not be causing any kind of significant change in our long term outlook of them.
 
And keep in mind, I'm one of the people who was cautioning posters to prepare for Mookie to struggle this season. There was a lot of talk about him being a 5 win player already and having a skill set that meant he was far less likely to slump for extended periods, but he's still 22 years old and is adjusting to pitching that is much better than anything he saw in AA or AAA. We need to step back, take a breath and give this some time. That doesn't mean a couple of week, or a month or two. It means seasons. If these guys are coming out around league average at age 22, that's a really good sign.

 

[radsoxfan]

This...
 
 
...followed by this...
 
 
...says to me that you are down on him more than is reasonable. He's young, and he's struggling. It happens. A lot. If your expectations were that he would be an All Star or MVP caliber player right out of the gate, then yes, they were too high. If they were just that he had a good chance to be that kind of player eventually and you've since decided Jhonny Peralta would be a win, then I think you are overreacting.
 
 
And it should. These guys are extremely young to playing in the majors. That they are struggling should not be surprising and should not be causing any kind of significant change in our long term outlook of them.
 .

It's mostly semantics at this point I guess. "This down on him" to me doesn't mean "mildly disappointed" in the start to his career to me.

When you have so few data points, you have to be willing to adjust your projection profile, even early on. 700 major league PA is kind of a important percentage of the info we have on Xander.

Out if curiosity, what do you think your 50th percentile projection for Xander was in his first 700 PA in the majors after the World Series. To me, all the data matters, so if he's at all below that median projection, you have to be sliding his projection profile down at least a tiny amount. It's a constantly moving guess at his range of outcomes.

As he plays more the curve gets narrower and has more certainty. There's still a ton of uncertainty since he's 22, and his projection curve to me still has some decent percentage chance that he turns out elite. But unless his 86 and 92 OPS+ start is as good or better than you expected, you've got to knock him down a bit from whatever your expectation was (or at least give him a smaller chance of reaching that peak).

Does that projection downshift cross the line for me to go from preferring Xander's potential to the certainty of a Peralta-like career? Ehh, maybe. It's a closer call now than it was 18 months ago IMO.

 

[JimD]

I'm just glad that the current Red Sox regime is smart enough not to overreact to X's very public struggles to date.  A lesser GM would probably be pretty tempted right now if another team offer a bag of magic pitching beans for Bogaerts.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

To me, all the data matters

 
I'm not the one discounting data. His age relative to the league and relative to the players people are comparing him to is a very important data point. My only point here is that many of you are being far too impatient. We won't know whether I'm right or you are for a few years, so let's curb this conversation until at least the winter and see how he looks at that point. We're just going to keep spinning our wheels by going back and forth now.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

What do you mean "if I'm right or you are right"?

 
I mean this...
 

Surely, the hype was out of hand coming off 2013, and he can still surely be a very good and productive player, but it also seems like the bright future of the Sox was based on the hope that he'd become a superstar, and the chances of that do seem slimmer than they were a year ago.

Perhaps that's the nature of prospects- folks don't get all that excited about the next Jhonny Peralta even though that's a pretty solid career.

 
I don't think the chances are any slimmer because he's still adjusting to major league pitching at 22 years old.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
I'm not the one discounting data. His age relative to the league and relative to the players people are comparing him to is a very important data point. My only point here is that many of you are being far too impatient. We won't know whether I'm right or you are for a few years, so let's curb this conversation until at least the winter and see how he looks at that point. We're just going to keep spinning our wheels by going back and forth now.

Come on, no one is discounting his age or age relative to other players.

It's not a "right or wrong" situation. If Xander is mediocre or flops I wouldn't consider myself right and if he's great I wouldn't consider myself wrong (how's that for hedging). No ones ever going to know who is right or wrong in these discussions with an N of 1.

If I think there's now a 10% chance he becomes elite, and before I thought it was 20%, and he ends up becoming elite.... Well that's awesome. I'll be excited the 10% chance ended up happening. It doesn't make the 10% projection "wrong". It's the same argument Nate Silver makes when projecting elections.

But the projection range and how much weight you give to each of those future outcomes absolutely matters when you consider his current value. If Xander has done as well or better than you expected, it makes sense to be equally high on him as you were (whatever that was). If he has done worse, even by a small amount, it makes little sense to ignore it.

But I agree on one thing, we're spinning our wheels at this point. I'm just going to hope he ends up improving this year.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I mean this...
 
 
I don't think the chances are any slimmer because he's still adjusting to major league pitching at 22 years old.

Bogaerts' high-water mark offensively last year was almost exactly a year ago - after the June 3rd game, he was hitting .304/.395/.464 and you were saying "he's probably the best overall short stop in the American League so far this season." I would say that of course his chances of becoming a superstar are smaller than they were a year ago - because that didn't end up being his true talent level of performance. He underperformed projections for 2014, by an extent that made his 2015 projections were lower than his 2014 projections. That doesn't mean that he's not a good player now, that he can't become a superstar later, or that the Red Sox (and we) shouldn't be patient with him, but it does mean his likely career trajectory has bent down somewhat.
 
As far as I can tell, everyone is pretty much on the same page with Bogaerts - he's a useful player now, he will likely get better, we don't know how much better, and his last 12 months have been somewhat disappointing. The argument seems to be between people who are trying to assess his future (based on the limited data we have currently) and people who only want to talk about the future of young players / prospects when things are going well.

 

[radsoxfan]

Nice summary Super Nomario, agree with it almost word for word.

I'm just not sure we can get everyone on board with admitting Xander's last 12 months have been somewhat disappointing....

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Unless I'm looking wrong, Mookie Betts is on pace for a 6 war season. He's at 1.9 in 47 games now. Xander is at .9 through 45.

I'd be far more worried about Xander because the power hasn't shown up, with a career ISO of .119 and trending downward. Still at that point in the season where a 1/3 game with a HR raises his slugging % .020 points and his ops+ goes from 93 to 100 and he's still 22. We're waiting on the xbh power.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Bogaerts is showing some signs of taking a step forward.  8 for 11 in his last 3 games, and, more importantly, he has been hitting offspeed stuff.  

 

[BoredViewer]

He's certainly on fire and had a couple of nice swings today (the curve he pulled into left center, in particular).

 

[Drek717]

Its the switch to high sox.  Everyone on the club should follow suit. 

 

[AB in DC]

 
 
Well, you turned Reyes' OPS+ (81) into his games played (161) which skews things heavily, and I'm not sure that Nomar's 93 PA sample is so much smaller than Xander's 170 PA sample to warrant exclusion. Look at it this way: 
 
Age 22 seasons
 
136 - Alex Rodriguez
116 - Hanley Ramirez
109 - Troy Tulowitzki
101 - Derek Jeter
92 - Xander Bogaerts
83 - Nomar Garciaparra
81 - Jose Reyes
 
In this view, A-Rod is the real outlier.  
 

 
OK, I know I'm late to this thread, but you're telling me that Bogaerts' age 22 performance is somewhere between Nomar's and Jeter's?  And someone is saying that this this is a disappointment?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Bogaerts is showing some signs of taking a step forward.  8 for 11 in his last 3 games, and, more importantly, he has been hitting offspeed stuff.  

 
Going back a little further, in 18 games since May 15, he is batting .368/.393/.509. He will wake up tomorrow, if I'm doing my math right, with a .735 OPS, which would put him in a dead heat with Brad Miller for second among AL shortstops. And his defense has increasingly looked viable--probably no more than that, but viable is enough if he hits.
 
If he continues hot for a while, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he, and not his DP partner, becomes our token ASG representative. SS in the AL right now is a vast wasteland. 

 

[Fishy1]

X's K rate is down by nearly 9% this year.  I've felt his defense has looked a lot more consistent than last year too, far quicker reactions to balls off the bat, even if that's not showing up in UZR (small sample size).  He's also doing much better not trying to yank the ball - his pull % is down to 31% from 47% last year.
 
So we have a 22 year old SS who's slightly below average with his bat but improving in his approach at the plate and in the field, and people are disappointed about this?  Of the problems with this team right now, I put Xander pretty low on the list.

 
I'm stunned by how much he's cut his K rate. Him, Rizzo and Reddick are all ex-Red Sox prospects who've cut their K rate nearly in half from how much they were striking out at the minor league level. In Reddick's case, he's striking out almost a third as much as he used to. Will Middlebrooks would like some of whatever they're smoking (he's cut his K rate, too, just not as dramatically).
 
Bogaerts is actually swinging more in general and at pitches out of the zone than he was last year -- the difference is that he's swinging and missing less. Last year he made contact on about 62% of pitches out of the zone, and this year, its all the way up to 72%. And he swings at 36% of them (Robinson Cano territory, but not Adam Jones). Now that he's acquired that ability to waste pitches, maybe the next adjustment is just plain laying off them.
 
It's a great skill to have, regardless. Reddick, for comparison's sake, is swinging at less pitches out of the zone and making contact on more of them -- which sounds like the ideal set-up.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
I'm stunned by how much he's cut his K rate. Him, Rizzo and Reddick are all ex-Red Sox prospects who've cut their K rate nearly in half from how much they were striking out at the minor league level. In Reddick's case, he's striking out almost a third as much as he used to. Will Middlebrooks would like some of whatever they're smoking (he's cut his K rate, too, just not as dramatically).
 
Bogaerts is actually swinging more in general and at pitches out of the zone than he was last year -- the difference is that he's swinging and missing less. Last year he made contact on about 62% of pitches out of the zone, and this year, its all the way up to 72%. And he swings at 36% of them (Robinson Cano territory, but not Adam Jones). Now that he's acquired that ability to waste pitches, maybe the next adjustment is just plain laying off them.
 
It's a great skill to have, regardless. Reddick, for comparison's sake, is swinging at less pitches out of the zone and making contact on more of them -- which sounds like the ideal set-up.

One problem appears to be that he might actually be putting them into play rather than wasting them.  HIs hard v. soft contact is trending in the right direction when comparing March/April v. May, although his soft contact numbers are up considerably from last year.

 

[jscola85]

Seems like Bogaerts is also focusing on just putting the bat on the ball and not trying to crush the ball.  It's resulted in far better contact rates, but less power when he does make contact as evidenced by his ISO.  For now I think that's a very fair trade-off, as he can always move back to being a bit more selective and start driving the ball in certain cases.
 
UZR still doesn't like his defense in 2015 but I feel he has made huge strides here.  Vastly less tentative and his arm has been a lot less erratic.  10 of his errors last year did come at 3rd, so I think some of that improved defense is just consistent reps at his natural position.  He's not going to confuse anyone for Andrelton Simmons out there, but he's no Captain Intangibles either.  Being league average with the bat and the glove, plus some solid wheels on the bases means at age 22 he's set to post a 2.5 - 3.5 WAR season.  Hard to complain about that.

 

[ivanvamp]

Seems like Bogaerts is also focusing on just putting the bat on the ball and not trying to crush the ball.  It's resulted in far better contact rates, but less power when he does make contact as evidenced by his ISO.  For now I think that's a very fair trade-off, as he can always move back to being a bit more selective and start driving the ball in certain cases.
 
UZR still doesn't like his defense in 2015 but I feel he has made huge strides here.  Vastly less tentative and his arm has been a lot less erratic.  10 of his errors last year did come at 3rd, so I think some of that improved defense is just consistent reps at his natural position.  He's not going to confuse anyone for Andrelton Simmons out there, but he's no Captain Intangibles either.  Being league average with the bat and the glove, plus some solid wheels on the bases means at age 22 he's set to post a 2.5 - 3.5 WAR season.  Hard to complain about that.

 
Indeed.  The Red Sox have many problems this season.  Bogaerts isn't one of them.  

 

[Fishy1]

One problem appears to be that he might actually be putting them into play rather than wasting them.  HIs hard v. soft contact is trending in the right direction when comparing March/April v. May, although his soft contact numbers are up considerably from last year.

 
Ah, that would be the other possibility, wouldn't it? Still, better to put it in play rather than swing through it.
 
He was actually leading the league in  % of soft contact as of a couple of games ago, which isn't a good thing, that's for sure. But I think we're all encouraged by the hard contact in the last few games. It's just a matter of whether he keeps it up. Right around this time last year was when he went into the tank, but it seems the plate approach is improved such that we won't see him hacking away like last year. Here's hoping.

 

[jscola85]

 
Ah, that would be the other possibility, wouldn't it? Still, better to put it in play rather than swing through it.
 
He was actually leading the league in  % of soft contact as of a couple of games ago, which isn't a good thing, that's for sure. But I think we're all encouraged by the hard contact in the last few games. It's just a matter of whether he keeps it up. Right around this time last year was when he went into the tank, but it seems the plate approach is improved such that we won't see him hacking away like last year. Here's hoping.

Right around this time was also when Stephen Drew pushed him to 3rd base, which may or may not have been a part of his hitting woes that coincided with the timing of that move.

 

[lexrageorge]

It makes no sense to complain about a 22 year old putting up a 108 OPS+ in half a season.  Last season's struggles are becoming less relevant each day. 

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Xander has been on fire recently. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

He nosed over .300 briefly tonight, and finished the night with a .298/.344/.403 line. He also made a couple more good defensive plays, including a nice quick DP turn.
 
Xander Bogaerts: solid MLB shortstop. Sounds good, doesn't it?

 

[Skip]

That middle infield is starting to look pretty good. 

 

[The Tax Man]

Xander Bogaerts solid MLB SS at 22 years old sounds even better. I'm still hopeful that this season is going to be interesting. But long term, the performance of Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Castillo is incredibly important for the health of this franchise.

 

[Van Everyman]

Not his bat but:

@pgammo: Xander Bogaerts now in top 4 in range factor, putouts, assists, fielding % @ SS