Borrowing Trouble....What happens to YOU If Bogaerts and Devers Go the Way of Mookie?

catsooey

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Our first year with tickets was ‘87. The gator was a favorite of our son. He still has a 39 shirt.
That’s awesome. Must have been a great time growing up there. Lots of heartbreak before 2004 but lots of great moments too. I loved watching the games on WSBK too. I miss that station.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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IDK. Anecdotally two people on this very page said that their kids and uncles don't watch the team anymore or are still angry about the Sox losing Betts. I don't think it's as cut-and-dry as many around here feel it is.
Like the RS, NESN's ratings much improved this season.

NESN saw particular growth this year among a younger demographic, though the overall rating isn’t enormous. The broadcasts averaged a 1.62 rating among adults ages 18-34, which was up 41 percent over last season and NESN’s highest in that demo since 2011.
The network also saw growth in the adults 25-54 demo (1.70 rating, up 80 percent over ‘20 and 19 percent over ‘19) and men 25-54 (2.16 rating, a 97-percent increase over last year and 10-percent from ‘19.)

Yeah, some people change the channel but for the most part, I suspect when the Red Sox win their next championship, the parade routes will be packed. And as Shelterdog says above, the next HOFer that plays for the Red Sox will be beloved by all.

Winning cures most evils. And as many bad things people might say about ownership, they've delivered the goods. Even if they can't keep every star player along the way.
 

jose melendez

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I think I’ve settled on a philosophy. If you’re going to take on a huge contract reink your own guys or go on the fa market. Do not—pretty much ever— trade a whole bunch of talent for the right to have someone for a year or two and si them to a giant extension.

this is a little different for a contending club, but not that much
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think I’ve settled on a philosophy. If you’re going to take on a huge contract reink your own guys or go on the fa market. Do not—pretty much ever— trade a whole bunch of talent for the right to have someone for a year or two and si them to a giant extension.

this is a little different for a contending club, but not that much

Isn’t this exactly the Pedro scenario?

Edit- wasn’t a real “Giant extension” but it was along Chris Sale extension for the time
 

bringbackburks

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I can stomach letting a player like Mookie leave in isolation, it hurts, but it was rational from a certain perspective. The part that is starting to bother me is that the failure to sign homegrown stars is becoming the rule. Pedroia is the only all-star level homegrown player that I can think of that they've signed long term in the last 25 years. That's balanced against failing to sign Nomar, Lester, Ellsbury, Mookie and the looming threat of losing X and Devers. Obviously, (Nomar, Ellsbury) the decision not to offer a long-term contract is often correct, and between X, Mookie and Devers I would bet that one of them will get a contract that will not look good in 4-5 years. But the part that bothers me is that, while the front office has lost homegrown stars, they've still been spending money. They've hit on some, but more often they've missed badly on players like Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley, Price and Sale.

Each move, like trading Mookie, is probably justifiable in isolation, but the net result, losing homegrown but still spending money, definitely lowers my interest in the team. As a fan if, in 6 or 7 years a 10/300 deal for Devers starts to hold the team back, (which is pretty unlikely) I'll be be fine and I'll know it's the price they had to pay for a generational talent.

Bad contracts are unavoidable unless you never never sign anyone long term. I guess I wish that, if we're going to have a bad contract on the team, it would be for a player I've followed and developed a deeper connection to.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Pedro was 25 coming off a Cy in Montreal. Also, we didn't trade a whole bunch of talent. Pavano and Armas were a cheap price to pay for what came back. Even then it was obvious.
Was it? I remember a lot of doubts about Pedro's physique and signability.

Pavano was no slouch either - great ERAs, whips and K/W ratios in AA and AAA ball the two years before he was traded. Baseball America had him as the #17 prospect in baseball after the 1996 season and #9 prospect after the 1997 season. He probably would have had a better major league career if his innings were managed the way they are today.

Armas was further down the system, but people thought he had a big future too.

There would have been some sad prospect humpers on this website back then.
 
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jon abbey

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Are you bringing a title to Boston?
The obvious answer, but I mean, come on. It’s not even like that series went seven games, BOS won in 5.

To me it’s a really silly way to think about things, dunno. Patrick Corbin is another guy who helped one title run and who besides that has been pretty awful for most of his giant deal, I don’t think that makes him ‘worth his contract’, I think that makes him a guy who was terrible for most of his contract but who helped one title run. If Dombrowski signed Steve Pearce to a 6/150 deal immediately after trading for him, he would not have been ‘worth his contract’ despite being great in 2018.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The obvious answer, but I mean, come on. It’s not even like that series went seven games, BOS won in 5.

To me it’s a really silly way to think about things, dunno. Patrick Corbin is another guy who helped one title run and who besides that has been pretty awful for most of his giant deal, I don’t think that makes him ‘worth his contract’, I think that makes him a guy who was terrible for most of his contract but who helped one title run. If Dombrowski signed Steve Pearce to a 6/150 deal immediately after trading for him, he would not have been ‘worth his contract’ despite being great in 2018.
I was vaguely responding to some posters that feel the Dodgers signing Mookie to $300M was “worth it” because they won* in ‘20 no matter if he’s a dead weight for the back half.
Price was far better non WS here than Pablo, Hanley, etc…. He shouldn’t be included on those “worst” signings. Add in his dominant WS and I think he was worth it (relatively speaking)
 

jon abbey

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I was vaguely responding to some posters that feel the Dodgers signing Mookie to $300M was “worth it” because they won* in ‘20 no matter if he’s a dead weight for the back half.
Price was far better non WS here than Pablo, Hanley, etc…. He shouldn’t be included on those “worst” signings. Add in his dominant WS and I think he was worth it (relatively speaking)
His overall numbers mask just how bad he was against the Yankees for that entire deal, which hurt even more because BOS signed him in part for how well he had pitched down the stretch against NY the previous year.

View: https://twitter.com/ktsharp/status/1158189835439542278?s=21&t=W5hlwRbpkYmmRW5GW_THow
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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His overall numbers mask just how bad he was against the Yankees for that entire deal, which hurt even more because BOS signed him in part for how well he had pitched down the stretch against NY the previous year.

View: https://twitter.com/ktsharp/status/1158189835439542278?s=21&t=W5hlwRbpkYmmRW5GW_THow
Oh I recall but… still not a bad contract in aggregate.

Edit- adding- still worth it despite being disappointing overall as his expectations were higher than what he delivered.

Regarding the Jon Lester situation- I loved Lester but was okay with the Sox trading him. I was wrong but he was starting to look on a downwards trend and I was hoping- and seriously thought- the plan was to get Scherzer. Homegrown “hero” or not…. Replacing Job Lester with Max Scherzer would have made a lot of people not terribly upset.
 
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joe dokes

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I think the issue is that when the Sox let their homegrown/ fan favorite/ long term guys go over extra cash, we shouldn't expect them to turn around and spend even more money on that player's replacement.
Unless they think that the replacement is worth more money than the guy who left.

I think the issue is that many seem to care about what they *spend* more than whether the players who are playing are any good or how well the team that is playing without the long-term guys is playing.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think the issue is that when the Sox let their homegrown/ fan favorite/ long term guys go over extra cash, we shouldn't expect them to turn around and spend even more money on that player's replacement.
That wasn’t the issue with Mookie though or Devers/X, which is why we're in this thread.

On the plus side, it seems that almost everyone has moved past the Lester situation and really just didn't like Price period. Or maybe that doesn't belong in the "pro" column.
 

Rovin Romine

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His overall numbers mask just how bad he was against the Yankees for that entire deal, which hurt even more because BOS signed him in part for how well he had pitched down the stretch against NY the previous year.
That made me look up his splits. Overall, he was passible against the Yanks in 2017, but otherwise pretty bad, Fenway or Bidet.

Comes out in the wash though, especially considering the post seasons:

2016, Sox win the AL East. No post-season NYY contact.​
Sox lose ALDS 3-0 to Indians, including one terrible start by Price.​
2017, Sox win the AL East. No post-season NYY contact.​
Sox lose ALDS 3-1 to Houston, Pice brilliant in 6.2 relief innings - scoreless, including no inherited runners or men left on when removed.​
2018, Sox with the AL East.​
ALDS v. NYY. Price faceplants in Game 2, leading to loss. Sox win ALDS 3-1.​
ALCS v. Houston. Starts Game 2: 4.1 innings, 4 runs - Sox win. Starts Game 5: 6 IP, no runs - Sox win.​
WS v. Dodgers. Starts Game 2: 6 innings, 2 earned runs - Sox win. Relieves in Game 3 (teams tied in the 9th - gets two outs leaves with a man on.) Sox lose in extras. Starts Game 5: 6 IP, no runs, Sox win.​
2018 off-season: Gutty Price a true Red Sox, free beer for life, hope he didn't shred his arm, totally worth it though, etc. Lasts aprox. 1.6 months according to the SOSH whine-metric.​
2019, Sox finish 3rd in the AL and 12 games out of qualifying for playing in the 2-team, single game elimination WC slot. (Price went 7-5 in 22 starts - wasn't really part of the problem.)​
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Was it? I remember a lot of doubts about Pedro's physique and signability.

Pavano was no slouch either - great ERAs, whips and K/W ratios in AA and AAA ball the two years before he was traded. Baseball America had him as the #17 prospect in baseball after the 1996 season and #9 prospect after the 1997 season. He probably would have had a better major league career if his innings were managed the way they are today.

Armas was further down the system, but people thought he had a big future too.

There would have been some sad prospect humpers on this website back then.
The issue when Pedro was signed was getting him onto a long term deal. At that time there were no concerns about his effectiveness or his physical condition. He was already considered a stud, but had one year left on his deal when acquired.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The issue when Pedro was signed was getting him onto a long term deal. At that time there were no concerns about his effectiveness or his physical condition. He was already considered a stud, but had one year left on his deal when acquired.
Oh thee were plenty of concerns. The Dodgers didn’t even want him because of those concerns. He was small and not built for a long career of the shit he was throwing. Lots of people thought he’d be injured and done pretty soon.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Oh thee were plenty of concerns. The Dodgers didn’t even want him because of those concerns. He was small and not built for a long career of the shit he was throwing. Lots of people thought he’d be injured and done pretty soon.
How concerned could the Sox have possibly been to have immediately signed him to a 7 year deal? And it was for $75 million IIRC which was back then real money, big money.

Compare that with the seemingly risk-averse approach taken by the team since in regards to their own star players and new deals.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Of course Price was a bad deal; they got less in return for Mookie because they stapled Price to him; and are still paying half his salary. In hindsight, paying two pitchers a ton of money was a mistake - it hurt the team in ‘19, and frankly it is what killed the Nationals too. It seems to me like paying position players a lot of money is not as risky as the odds of them getting hurt and giving you nothing is less, but I know some disagree.

The inability to beat the Yankees, at least since ‘19, is a big factor in why a lot of people got frustrated with Sale, too, I think (and conversely why people love Eovaldi).
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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The issue when Pedro was signed was getting him onto a long term deal. At that time there were no concerns about his effectiveness or his physical condition. He was already considered a stud, but had one year left on his deal when acquired.
Hence my use of the word "signability."

The Sox took a gamble on his durability when they signed him to the big long term contract, but it was a gamble that paid off big time. As SLT points out, Pedro was hardly considered a prototypical specimen of a dominant healthy pitcher. And in fact, his career didn't last nearly as long as some of his peers in the "best pitcher of his era" category like Maddux, Clemens or Johnson.

Signing Pedro to that contract was also an effort to change the narrative about the Red Sox. They had, to that point, been a team that talent left over money, dating right back to Lynn, Fisk and Burleson, not a team that spent big on new talent. Their free agent signings were has beens like Andre Dawson, Tony Perez and Jack Clark, or never weres like Matt Young. To pay big money to a prime-of-his-career player (of color no less) like Pedro was something the Sox had never done before.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Oh thee were plenty of concerns. The Dodgers didn’t even want him because of those concerns. He was small and not built for a long career of the shit he was throwing. Lots of people thought he’d be injured and done pretty soon.
Not really. It was only one dude who was concerned and that was Tommy Lasorda. Thought he was too small to hold up as a starter and would end up in the bullpen.

DD traded for Pedro twice. So he was not concerned.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Not really. It was only one dude who was concerned and that was Tommy Lasorda. Thought he was too small to hold up as a starter and would end up in the bullpen.

DD traded for Pedro twice. So he was not concerned.
Duquette was not concerned, but I remember that there was some concern from fans and media (I know, I know) saying that Pedro was just "a National League pitcher" (He will have to deal with real one-to-nine lineups, no pitchers hitting), probably wouldn't be able to handle the Boston spotlight after starring in Montreal ("We're toughah down heah!") and that he was too small and a bit of a "punk" (hitting people, etc.). Folks are nervous about big deals like this, I get it, but this wasn't a slam dunk all around.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not really. It was only one dude who was concerned and that was Tommy Lasorda. Thought he was too small to hold up as a starter and would end up in the bullpen.

DD traded for Pedro twice. So he was not concerned.
That's what I remember. It wasn't until Pedro did get hurt in 2001 that the idea of having him around for the remainder of his career became more of a concern, IMO.

I'm not sure that all these comps to Pedro are really relevant anymore though. Duquette signed him to what was at the time a really big/expensive deal but it was still only through his 33rd birthday (which occurred just before the 2004 playoffs). If we were talking about signing any young homegrown players (be it Lester, Mookie, Devers, Bogaerts, etc) only through age 33 or 34, I think there would have been and would be far less hesitancy to give them what they want/need to get the deal done. Heck, Bogaerts' current deal without the opt-out does take him through age 33. It's the idea of paying big dollars for their late 30s that is the concern.
 

Ale Xander

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Can someone remind me why the Yankees didn't go after him/didn't overbid us? They didn't have prospects like Pavano, i doubt.

He'd obviously have been a fan hit, especially with NY's big Dominicano population. Was it just the "NL pitcher" BS?

Or it just they didn;t need him since they won anyway
 

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Pedro's deal was the highest average annual value for a pitcher ever to that point. There may have been a longer contract, but not much longer. I remember A-Rod's deal was seen as crazy for being 10 years long and he was still just 25. It's only in the last decade that 10+ year contracts have become common.
 

Max Power

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Can someone remind me why the Yankees didn't go after him/didn't overbid us? They didn't have prospects like Pavano, i doubt.

He'd obviously have been a fan hit, especially with NY's big Dominicano population. Was it just the "NL pitcher" BS?
I'm not sure how into him they were in 1998 for the trade, but he had a meeting after 2004 with Steinbrenner. He came out of the meeting thinking he'd get a contract offer, but Cashman decided against more than 2 years and never sent anything formal.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They went after Orlando Hernandez instead and had their other SP in place. The year before, they signed Irabu.

They were doing the international thing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can someone remind me why the Yankees didn't go after him/didn't overbid us? They didn't have prospects like Pavano, i doubt.

He'd obviously have been a fan hit, especially with NY's big Dominicano population. Was it just the "NL pitcher" BS?

Or it just they didn;t need him since they won anyway
I think the Sox simply out bid them. Like you say, they didn't have a Pavano to offer at the time. Ironically, the second prospect the Sox sent to the Expos (Armas Jr) came from the Yankees (for Mike Stanley).

According to Pedro, he wanted to go to the Yankees at the time. He asked for it even. Duquette won out though.
 

tims4wins

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Pedro's deal was the highest average annual value for a pitcher ever to that point. There may have been a longer contract, but not much longer. I remember A-Rod's deal was seen as crazy for being 10 years long and he was still just 25. It's only in the last decade that 10+ year contracts have become common.
Right, if that trade happened today, Pedro would have been asking for like a 12 year, $400M extension, which may or may not have been a good signing. The back half of that deal would have been really ugly. He only threw 531 IP over 5 years after leaving Boston with a 109 ERA+.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Can someone remind me why the Yankees didn't go after him/didn't overbid us? They didn't have prospects like Pavano, i doubt.

He'd obviously have been a fan hit, especially with NY's big Dominicano population. Was it just the "NL pitcher" BS?

Or it just they didn;t need him since they won anyway
I don't recall whether the Yankees were seriously in the bidding. I believe it came down to the Sox and Cleveland, and the latter balked when the Expos asked for Jarret Wright. Wright had a really good World Series, was young, thought to be a horse and that he was a future ace.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Expos GM, Jim Beattie, had a vendetta against Steinbrenner and the Yankees going back to his playing days and didn’t want to deal with them, IIRC. Conversely, he had an excellent relationship with Duquette.

Feel like the Expos were demanding something like Soriano and Johnson from the Yankees (maybe it wasn’t them but was two big names at the time); and then suddenly took the Sox offer. Of course the irony was that the Sox had gotten Armas from the Yanks.
 
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Archer1979

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I don't recall whether the Yankees were seriously in the bidding. I believe it came down to the Sox and Cleveland, and the latter balked when the Expos asked for Jarret Wright. Wright had a really good World Series, was young, thought to be a horse and that he was a future ace.
If I remember this right, the Yankees were in on Pedro and asked the Expos why they traded him to the Sox rather than NY. Expos said that NY didn't have Tony Armas Jr. which was the difference maker apparently.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pavano probably would have had a better major league career if his innings were managed the way they are today.
Armas was further down the system, but people thought he had a big future too.
You could say the same about Armas re inning management.

Armas wasn't ranked in the top 100 when he was well regarded and still 19. He was 90th after his 1998 and 27th after his 1999.

Prior to his injury, he was at 86 games, 493.0 IP and a 109 ERA+ for his MLB career as a 25 year old. Well on his way to a big future. Only pitched another 432.2 innings in his career.
Pavano at the same age had 66 games, 378.1 IP and a 99 ERA+. He'd go on to pitch another 1410.1. Pavano had a weird career. Pitched 200+ innings in 2003 and 2004. Next 4 years he has 145.2 IP combined. Then he somehow bounces back with 642.1 IP over the next 3 seasons, with a low of 199.1 IP for a season. I know there were talks he mailed it in in NY but I never bought that.

Had both of them stayed relatively healthy, it would have been an Ok trade all things considered. Like many young pitchers and pitching prospects, they did not. Brian Rose, Juan Pena. Paxton Crawford (not like the others) Did any Sox pitcher survive the mid to late 90s era? Jeff Suppan did well. Ohka did ok for a little bit. Pavano still had a career too, he had more career innings that Buchholz. Kind of depressing just how little SP this team has actually developed in the last 20-30 years despite having quite a few pitching prospects that were highly ranked. On that note, apparently Seung Song was still playing baseball up until 2020.
 

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Prior to his injury, he was at 86 games, 493.0 IP and a 109 ERA+ for his MLB career as a 25 year old. Well on his way to a big future. Only pitched another 432.2 innings in his career.
Pavano at the same age had 66 games, 378.1 IP and a 99 ERA+. He'd go on to pitch another 1410.1. Pavano had a weird career. Pitched 200+ innings in 2003 and 2004. Next 4 years he has 145.2 IP combined. Then he somehow bounces back with 642.1 IP over the next 3 seasons, with a low of 199.1 IP for a season. I know there were talks he mailed it in in NY but I never bought that.
He did miss the entire 2006 season with a bruised ass, so it's understandable that Yankees fans didn't think he was making his best efforts.
 

snowmanny

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If I remember this right, the Yankees were in on Pedro and asked the Expos why they traded him to the Sox rather than NY. Expos said that NY didn't have Tony Armas Jr. which was the difference maker apparently.
Not quite. I am pretty sure Duquette acquired Armas Jr from the Yankees (for Mike Stanley) specifically because he knew the Expos liked him a lot.

edit-as for Wright he was nearly the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the WS in 1997. At that moment it would have been tough to trade six years of Wright for potentially only one year of anyone.
 

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Not quite. I am pretty sure Duquette acquired Armas Jr from the Yankees (for Mike Stanley) specifically because he knew the Expos liked him a lot.

edit-as for Wright he was nearly the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the WS in 1997. At that moment it would have been tough to trade six years of Wright for potentially only one year of anyone.
Absolutely on Cleveland not trading Wright. He had the pitcher’s build (some said he was the next Clemens) and pitched his ass off in Game 7. I don’t fault John Hart at all for not trading him.

But with hindsight being what it is, could you imagine those Cleveland teams with that lineup and God-level Pedro Martinez leading the staff in a very bad AL Central? They might have won 140 games.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The other pitcher they had at the same time (Bartolo Colon) had huge concerns about his pitching build. Funny how that works out.
 

Archer1979

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Not quite. I am pretty sure Duquette acquired Armas Jr from the Yankees (for Mike Stanley) specifically because he knew the Expos liked him a lot.

edit-as for Wright he was nearly the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the WS in 1997. At that moment it would have been tough to trade six years of Wright for potentially only one year of anyone.
That makes sense. Duquette and Beattie were fairly tight with each other back then.
 

MadSince2012

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Epstein, Henry, and Werner came on like gangbusters. 2002-2007 was sublime and there were no boundaries on the joy in my soul. They bought and kept us safe from Frank McCourt! They freakin' saved FENWAY!!! Since then, they have reverted to type. Henry has become a derivatives trader and Werner the mass appeal entertainment manager they are. Sweet Caroline! That sing-a-long is why I go to baseball games? They are not baseball men, they are investors. Not fans. Derivatives and an entertainment owner/manager. 2013 was like the Marlin World Championships sui generis and the former owner of the Marlins and Padres really like this idea. Henry and Werner walk into every room and even every stadium thinking they are the two smartest people in the whole place. They even got LeBron to buy into the Fenway Entertainment business model (Didn't LBJ notice that the Sox were the last team to integrate and the bile Bill Russell endured) in the town often 'racist as f*$k'. I will not go to another game at Fenway until they are gone or are all in on winning world championships and destroying Yankee teams on a regular basis on the field and from the GM office. Napoli and Victorino were gets of the quality of Danny Darwin and Greg Harris. Pay more than a couple of bucks on my package for NESN? Don't they have commercials to sell? I have accepted X and Devers are gone. I want the tooth pulled as soon as possible. Extending Sale was and now grows as even more of a failure day by day. The went from game after game and year after year of selling out games to swaths of empty seats at prices that are obscene. Finally, if Werner and Henry understood ANYTHING about human behavior and/or baseball, they never would have pushed to hire Bobby Valentine. Any person that hires a narcissistic sociopath like Valentine is a fellow narcissist that Valentine lines up with his auto-destruct tractorbeam.
 

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I will not go to another game at Fenway until they are gone or are all in on winning world championships and destroying Yankee teams on a regular basis on the field and from the GM office.
They finished ahead of the Yankees and humiliated them in the Wild Card game 9 months ago.