Whoever uses more "Omaha"s will win this one.
Were they all also on time? If so:
RedOctober3829 said:
Were they all also on time? If so:
Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game
- Thread starter Dogman
- Start date
Lincoln Kennedy's pick via Denver sports radio: "I can't understate how much I hate Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. On my worst day I couldn't pick them to win. Therefore, I pick Denver."
Dude, still butthurt about the Tuck Rule game?
Dude, still butthurt about the Tuck Rule game?
Shelterdog said:
Peter King likes this.
MentalDisabldLst said:
"Nips's Dungeon of Debauchery" has a certain ring to it.
Brady and Aiken off the injury report. Mike Reiss details the limited guys.
@MikeReiss: Only players limited for Patriots at practice: P Ryan Allen, LB Dont'a Hightower & WRs Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson & Kenbrell Thompkins.
It does concern me that 3 of the top 4 WRs couldn't practice fully.
@MikeReiss: Only players limited for Patriots at practice: P Ryan Allen, LB Dont'a Hightower & WRs Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson & Kenbrell Thompkins.
It does concern me that 3 of the top 4 WRs couldn't practice fully.
Interesting note that Barnwell said today: The thin air in Denver really forces opposing defenses to substitute more frequently. Out of all the visiting players this year, the only D-Lineman to play every snap was Dontari Poe, and only one other D-Lineman played as much as 82% of his teams possible snaps. During the first game between Denver and New England, Nink, Chandler Jones and Chris Jones played every snap, and that probably isn't going to happen Sunday.
The more I think about this, I think we're going to see the Broncos stack the box and force the Patriots to pass. I know it seems like a bad idea to let Tom Brady beat you, but with the Pats pass catching corps looking so thin, it makes sense. Force the Pats to win via Edelman, Amendola, and then... what, Hooman and Vereen?
CaptainLaddie said:
I think I speak for most (all?) Pats fans when I say that I'm okay with that. Forcing Brady to beat you is basically asking to be beat.
I don't want this to be misconstrued as overconfidence. I'm still nervous as hell about this game. But I like the fact that we're the ones entering the game with a balanced, "pick your poison" offense, while the Broncos are most definitely a passing team that runs only because it has to.
If the Pats recent playoff losses have taught me anything, it's that being one-dimensional makes you easier to defend. No matter how strong that one dimension may be. (And I fully understand that advanced efficiency stats have pegged the Pats running game as strong even when they barely used it (or only used it to run out clock), but the recent vintage Pats teams haven't relied on the running game like this Pats team has during the past few weeks.)
I don't agree the Broncos run only when they have to. They've actually made it a point to run it more the past few weeks. They've really ran the inside draw very well especially against San Diego. As we know from Week 12, when they are given a 2-deep shell they'll run it well. Hopefully, we'll be more successful up front this time around.
CaptainLaddie said:
That's what makes sense in the abstract but its hard to really stack the box when you only have one halfway decent cover corner and your safeties are also suspect. Ultimately, the more players you put in the box the more pressure you put on your CBs to hold up in man coverage and the more risk you take that even one slip or blown tackle will lead to a massive gain.
I think the more likely scenario is that Denver plays a pretty conventional defensive scheme and hopes that its above-average run defense can hold up against our running attack. I think that's the battle we need to win - strength on strength - and if we can win that battle, then it will open up a lot for us elsewhere in the passing game.
RedOctober3829 said:
They finished 1st in passing yards and 15th in rushing yards. I know Moreno went off against the Pats, but that was one of two games all season where they had a 100+ yard rusher.
I don't think it's controversial to call this a team that looks to pass first, second, and third, but will run when it has to. Other than the Pats game, where they were basically dared to run it as much as they wanted to, this team hasn't really shown an aptitude to run it down people's throats.
I'm not saying their run offense is bad. I'm saying that you don't need to worry about it when scheming how to beat the Broncos. It's all about their passing game.
SMU_Sox said:
Right. And the Pats running game has always ranked highly in advanced metrics, even though it was all about the passing game. That's kind of my point. Which is what I was getting at in the last sentence of my previous post.
It's kind of impossible to wholly isolate one aspect of an offense from another. But the passing game is the straw that stirs the drink for the Broncos, without question. You put everything you have into stopping that and take your chances with making their 10th in dvoa running game beat you. If that happens, tip your cap and say, "Good game."
I think you do need to worry about their running game. The Broncos actually ran the ball 34 times last week compared to 36 passes so it leads me to believe they are valuing time of possession moreso in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. Knowshon Moreno and Monte Ball have shown the ability out of either the shotgun or pistol to be very patient in front of the offensive line and wait for holes to develop. Gap control and integrity is so key against a patient back as you can't give them cutback lanes this week. If they are successful on 1st/2nd down and get into 2nd/3rd and short, it opens up their entire playbook. They could run it, use play action, or spread you out and throw it to any one of their many options. If I'm Matt Patricia, I'm putting a ton of pressure on them to not give up as many rushing yards as last game. They were frankly lucky to win with that strategy. You want to force an offense like this into being one-dimensional because if they are allowed to have both they are almost impossible to defend. 3rd and long gives the Patriots the opportunity to open up their defensive playbook and get creative with various pressures and combinations of rushers to coverage guys. The hard part is that they will probably have to stop the run from their sub packages, but I think because Hightower and Collins are so versatile they can stop both run and pass whereas when Spikes was in he was poor in pass coverage for the most part.Soxy Brown said:
You're not wrong in that if they try to run the ball more that it will be in the Patriots' advantage. What I'm trying to say is that if they are that successful as in Week 12(or even remotely close to that successful), it will be that much more difficult for the Patriots to keep them under 30 points.
The flip side is that Denver's corner depth is just as thin as our WR depth, with Harris out, Bailey a big question mark (he's only been playing about 50% of snaps and primarily on the inside), and Jammer and Webster a bit suspect. Going three WR might help the running game as much as the passing game - we lose a blocker, but they put in a corner that might probably needs safety help, effectively taking two defenders out of the box.CaptainLaddie said:
I'm really interested in how they use Bailey. If he's still just playing the slot, then I think you stay in 2 WR sets, keep him off the field, and pick on Jammer or Webster a lot in the passing game.
Obviously the Pats don't want Denver to run for 200+ yards again. I'm not sure they do anything schematically different, though - Denver's so dangerous in the passing game, especially with Julius Thomas back. I think you just have to hope that the front six plays a little better than they did in the first meeting, with Siliga hopefully being key to that.RedOctober3829 said:
The other approach that could make sense is trying to take away the short stuff and make Manning throw deep. He only had 5 deep attempts against the Chargers, completing 1 (the 3rd-and-17 to J.Thomas) and also drawing 1 DPI. If you put Talib on an island against Demaryius and bring a safety closer to jump underneath routes, help with the TE, or fill in run support, can Manning hit passes 25+ yards in the air consistently enough to make you pay? I'm not sure he can. Talib, Gregory, and Arrington are off the injury report, Dennard was a full participant in practice yesterday - this is the healthiest the secondary has been since week 3. I think they match up OK against Denver, which isn't to say they can hold them under 150 passing yards again, but I think they hold them under 30 points.
Super Nomario said:
How is Blount in pass blocking? I know he was suspect before. But coming out in 3 wides with Blount alone in the backfield may cause some problems for Denver if he can pass block at all, especially when they start using play action etc.
Kliq said:
1) When will the Patriots fly into Denver? Are they going to sleep one night? two? at altitude? Would sleeping at altitude make a difference?
2) What is NFL policy on blood doping (taking your own red blood cells that you had banked earlier)? Would this help?
3) Any one on this team with sickle cell traits? (There was a Steeler who was benched for a Denver game because of this.)
4) Most of our D-linemen look like they could run the extra mile high. Can they? But what about Siliga (Who has looked awesome)?
5) Won't the air be used by Denver in terms of play sequencing, knowing that we'll be sucking gas after three, five or seven D-plays in a row ?
6) At least one running play by Denver in the last quarter last week looked like an X's an O's dare to the Patriots coaches. The blocking scheme looked--Scarnechia-esque.
I am assuming the air not that big of a deal only because I am reading nothing about our (or anyone else's before us) thin air preparations. (Not taking much comfort it that.)
Great breakdown of the differences in playing the zone run by the Patriots front 7 from James Christensen.
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/01/inside-zone-how-the-patriots-run-defense-has-shifted-since-the-last-broncos-encounter.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/01/inside-zone-how-the-patriots-run-defense-has-shifted-since-the-last-broncos-encounter.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
CaptainLaddie said:
Underscoring the importance of the Pats throwing a fair amount on 1st down and succeeding when they do. Four yards is fine. You want to create doubt on play selection on the following downs, and you certainly want to stay out of third-and-forever, which increases the turnover risk unless you are content to punt. In this game particularly, absent a huge lead or little time on the clock, I would not be content to punt.
It seems to me that the Broncos can be baited into running. The Pats did it and the Charges may have done it last week. Although Denver won last week, I think we'd all be happy if they only score 24 points on Sunday. Every time Peyton hands off, I'll be happy.
With regard to oxygen,the Broncos have I believe about a 5% advantage (2.6% per 1000 ft over 3400 ft)due to living mile high and having increased EPO/RBC's.
The Patriots could have erased this advantage by sleeping all season in low oxygen tents and naturally increasing their EPO/RBC's.Presumably they did not.
While I assume blood-doping is illegal, any player can go to the sideline and achieve 100 % oxygen saturation by breathing pure oxygen.
Rule 13 article 3: "...persons with game services credentials (e.g. oxygen technicians, ball boys)...may be in a team's bench area..."
This should help.Arriving 48 hours early won't help RBC's and oxygen, but it will assure hydration and other adaptations to altitude.
The Patriots could have erased this advantage by sleeping all season in low oxygen tents and naturally increasing their EPO/RBC's.Presumably they did not.
While I assume blood-doping is illegal, any player can go to the sideline and achieve 100 % oxygen saturation by breathing pure oxygen.
Rule 13 article 3: "...persons with game services credentials (e.g. oxygen technicians, ball boys)...may be in a team's bench area..."
This should help.Arriving 48 hours early won't help RBC's and oxygen, but it will assure hydration and other adaptations to altitude.
That's an important point. We hear all the time how you ABSOLUTELY CANNOT blitz the elite QBs because they'll BURN YOU, and, as a general strategy, it's not wrong. But you can't NOT blitz them, either. The key is to be selective and successful. If guys like Peyton and Brady know you're going to be rushing 3 or 4 conventionally all game, you're probably done.
I'd be curious to hear if the Pats brought pressure more at certain parts of the field, or down/distance as well.
I'd be curious to hear if the Pats brought pressure more at certain parts of the field, or down/distance as well.
RedOctober3829 said:
First bold: This is exactly what they did so they could control the clock and turn SD's gameplan on it's head. Short passes, lots of runs and a TOP of over 35 minutes. It worked until SD had to pass.
Second bold: I completely disagree that this is what Patricia will do. By allowing Peyton to hand off, you take the ball out of his hands and it prevents Denver from putting up their seasonal average because of clock usage. Hell, in week 12, Peyton threw for only 150 yards (weather, I know) but the plan worked very well. I think the early turnovers, allowing Denver to jump out to a big lead, only reinforced the gameplan to not let Denver score quickly by throwing and thus allowing NE to stay in the game (yep, Denver's TO helped too). I expect, based on what Denver did against SD, they will try and run the ball and Patricia will scheme to allow for some rushing yards ( not ~280) so that NE is always in the game when Denver uses a ton of clock running the ball.
I don't know. They blitzed 8 times in 38 dropbacks this time. In 2012 when they played, the Pats blitzed 7 times in 47 dropbacks - less, but not a huge difference - and Manning went 5 of 6 for 72 yards and a TD, 1 sack. In general, I think they've blitzed a little more and been a little more successful when they've done so.DrewDawg said:
Yes. You have to play Peyton honest, but not too honest.Mystic Merlin said:
On the flip side, Denver had 3 sacks. Von Miller had 2 of them, 3 QB hits and a forced fumble. We will not miss that guy, he had a beastly game. Besides Shaun Phillips and DRC is there a real difference maker on this Denver defense?DrewDawg said:
Yeah, I like the idea of 3 wides with Blount / Ridley in the backfield. One of Denver's beat writers made the same point in a back-and-forth with Reiss:NortheasternPJ said:
I think you can stick with the run attack, but running at the nickel D might be easier than running at the base D. I'm not sure how well that'll work in the red zone, however.
drleather2001 said:
No. They are playing in Denver, which makes a measurable difference, albeit slight--Hence my third item about sickle cell. and Kliq's excellent observation.
Being Friday, I thought someone might be able to update team travel plans.
And yes, we are online. I was looking for insight at a place I thought I might find some-- I mean beyond "hit their key player with the bad neck wicked hard."
lambeau, appreciate both the sarcasm and the attempt to nudge conversation towards something beneficial. Thanks.
SamK said:
This is actually probably what happened
BB: "OK team, we're playing week to week and focusing on this game, but just in case after the bye, we win, then Denver wins we're going to try something new, meet our new trainer"
I'm not advocating changing scheme that they've adopted since after the Denver game. I'm simply saying they need to do a better job of staying in their gaps and not get pushed off the ball as much as they did in that game. I would rather them run the ball, but they can't keep giving up big chunks of yardage like they did.Dogman2 said:
drleather2001 said:
Aren't they playing on the top of Mount Washington?
SamK said:
1) NO. You need 2-3 weeks to acclimatize.
2) YES it's illegal, yes it would help. AND it can't be detected in a test. BUT as was mentioned there are better ways to cope with the elevation.
I am worried.
What if the Broncos give the Edelman the "Jimmy Graham" treatment (2 guys jamming the everloveing sh*t out of him at the line) while stacking the box for the run? Not impossible to do if you assume that Edelman will be in the slot.
Sure they can split Edelman out wide where he is less effective but do they gain anything?
That basically leaves a hobbled Amendola, Dobson and maybe Thompkins. You would also have Vereen.
Can they keep up with the Broncos if Edelman is held to say 4 catches for 42 yards? Can they win if the Broncos hold the running game to @100 yards?
I am not sure they can get enough offense from ADT and V.
What if the Broncos give the Edelman the "Jimmy Graham" treatment (2 guys jamming the everloveing sh*t out of him at the line) while stacking the box for the run? Not impossible to do if you assume that Edelman will be in the slot.
Sure they can split Edelman out wide where he is less effective but do they gain anything?
That basically leaves a hobbled Amendola, Dobson and maybe Thompkins. You would also have Vereen.
Can they keep up with the Broncos if Edelman is held to say 4 catches for 42 yards? Can they win if the Broncos hold the running game to @100 yards?
I am not sure they can get enough offense from ADT and V.
DrewDawg said:
That's precisely what Josh McD would do.Besides, if Denver forces a safety to double Edelman after he goes in motion, intermediate and deep parts of the field will be wide open.
