Brady/Manning XVII

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,062
Mansfield MA
When did Brady's momentum ebb? When he was injured for a year?
I think in the popular perception, there have been several shifts.

Pre-2006: Brady has rings, Manning has stats, edge: even
2006: Manning gets a ring, edge: Manning
2007: Brady sets TD record with Moss / Welker, makes another Super Bowl, edge: Brady
2008-09: Brady hurt, Manning two MVPs, Manning another Super Bowl, edge: Manning
2010-11: Brady second MVP, Manning misses a year, another Brady Super Bowl, edge: Brady
2012-13: comeback year for Manning, record-breaking year, another Super Bowl, edge: Manning
2014: Manning signs of decline, Brady fourth ring, edge: Brady
2015: ?

Each has had his proponents and detractors throughout, and each has been awesome forever so this is all a little bit silly, but I think this is how the popular perception has gone.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,961
He missed 2008.
Yeah, I get that, it's just shitty writing trying to deepen a story that really doesn't need it. He's trying to make it sound like both players have had their ups and downs, sometimes simultaneously, sometimes in opposite directions. Nobody would consider missing a season with a knee injury a "momentum ebb." It reads to me like he's trying to say Brady's been on bottom before and now it's Peyton's turn, but we'll have to see what happens next, which is BS. They were both amazing, both hurt for one season, and now Brady is still phenomenal and Peyton sucks. Irrevocably.
 

Hagios

New Member
Dec 15, 2007
672
Utilizing a 4-WR set, the Run and Shoot as the old Oilers ran it lacked a short/intermediate attack, which made it susceptible to short drives timewise. What the Patriots do, in spirit at least, is actually a variant of the Run and Shoot. The Run and Shoot was predicated on receivers reading the defense and adjusting their routes. The Patriot passing game has long been along those same lines, where each receiver might go to the line with 2-3 possible routes and they decide which one to run based on the coverage they see. It relies a lot on Brady and the receivers being in sync with one another as far as reading things properly.
That's a really good post. I didn't know that. I think that's very interesting because:


1.The best offenses are typically pass-wacky offenses with a lot of wide receivers.
2. The best defenses typically get good pressure with just their front 4.
3. The best offenses typically lose to the best defenses.

I think the Patriots have changed this ongoing arms race and I think you've hit upon why. We all saw it in the Superbowl and early in the season when Brady was getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds. Those deep routes don't have time to develop so you need good tight ends and good slot guys working underneath. And then you neutralize the pass rush.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,711
Philadelphia
I think in the popular perception, there have been several shifts.

Pre-2006: Brady has rings, Manning has stats, edge: even
2006: Manning gets a ring, edge: Manning
2007: Brady sets TD record with Moss / Welker, makes another Super Bowl, edge: Brady
2008-09: Brady hurt, Manning two MVPs, Manning another Super Bowl, edge: Manning
2010-11: Brady second MVP, Manning misses a year, another Brady Super Bowl, edge: Brady
2012-13: comeback year for Manning, record-breaking year, another Super Bowl, edge: Manning
2014: Manning signs of decline, Brady fourth ring, edge: Brady
2015: ?

Each has had his proponents and detractors throughout, and each has been awesome forever so this is all a little bit silly, but I think this is how the popular perception has gone.
I think this nails it, although his Super Bowl performance in the Seahawks game took some of the shine off Manning at the end of 2013 (really, beginning of 2014).

For popular perception to really swing back to Manning this year, I think he'd not only have to win the Super Bowl but play surprisingly well in doing so. If he just Dilfers his way to a second ring, playing like crap but riding a great defense and running game, after a regular season in which he was almost historically bad, I don't know whether it really moves the dial enough, especially given that Brady has the 4th ring now and is clearly still playing at an elite level. I'm sure Manning's fans in the public and media will jump on that second ring to make the case. But my read on the broader universe of football fans who follow the game fairly closely is that most people think current Manning kind of sucks and consider him somewhat of a punchline.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Yeah, I get that, it's just shitty writing trying to deepen a story that really doesn't need it. He's trying to make it sound like both players have had their ups and downs, sometimes simultaneously, sometimes in opposite directions. Nobody would consider missing a season with a knee injury a "momentum ebb." It reads to me like he's trying to say Brady's been on bottom before and now it's Peyton's turn, but we'll have to see what happens next, which is BS. They were both amazing, both hurt for one season, and now Brady is still phenomenal and Peyton sucks. Irrevocably.
We're only about 15 months past Brady being declared done while Manning had just gone to the Super Bowl with an offense that broke a ton of records while starting the season looking like he might break them all again. Id wager 15 months ago there were very, very few people outside of New England who'd rank Brady above Manning. Im with SN, perception has ebbed and flowed (and also that the whole thing is silly, both are among the very very best players of all time)
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,961
We're only about 15 months past Brady being declared done while Manning had just gone to the Super Bowl with an offense that broke a ton of records while starting the season looking like he might break them all again. Id wager 15 months ago there were very, very few people outside of New England who'd rank Brady above Manning. Im with SN, perception has ebbed and flowed (and also that the whole thing is silly, both are among the very very best players of all time)
Ok, I read it differently - as in the momentum of their actual careers, not the momentum of how they'd be ranked.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Yeah, it would be silly for their careers I think. They have slightly different arcs, but both basically have been awesome every year they weren't hurt other than their first year in the league until Manning this season.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,995
deep inside Guido territory
I thought Bedard's article today was tremendous. Particularly this part.

The Patriots look at all the tendencies and personnel matchups that an opponent likes to use, allowing them to anticipate how the opponent is going to defend them. Brady’s preparation is based on that.

So Phillips, with the urging of coach Gary Kubiak, needs to completely flip the script to throw the Patriots for a loop, even if it only lasts a half. The more possessions that leave the Patriots scratching their heads, the fewer points they can put on the board, allowing the Broncos to stay in the game.

My suggestion: put cornerback Aqib Talib on Gronkowski with help over the top. Talib’s talents would be wasted covering, say, Brandon LaFell. Use the physical Ward on the inside with Edelman and cornerback Chris Harris, who is beat up, on the outside. Let Von Miller cover running back James White, and rush only three. Invite the Patriots to run the ball, because it would shorten the game for the Broncos. And if Brady beats the Broncos running the ball and throwing to LaFell and Amendola, then so be it.

The Broncos have been excellent on defense over the course of the season, but this is an entirely different challenge which calls for drastic measures. Phillips hasn’t always been up for those during his career, but it’s now or never.
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/21/nfl-playoffs-conference-championships-wade-phillips-denver-broncos-blanket-coverage
 

GeorgeCostanza

tiger king
SoSH Member
May 16, 2009
7,290
Go f*ck yourself
In that scenario Edelman absolutely abuses TJ Ward (assuming both knees remain intact). Also I think safety help over the top on Gronk would be wasted as they would keep him in shallower routes and not run as many seams once they notice the tendency.
 

Kevin Youkulele

wishes Claude Makelele was a Red Sox
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2006
9,327
San Diego
In that scenario Edelman absolutely abuses TJ Ward (assuming both knees remain intact). Also I think safety help over the top on Gronk would be wasted as they would keep him in shallower routes and not run as many seams once they notice the tendency.
upload_2016-1-21_13-57-55.png
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
47,130
“@mikefreemanNFL: Bruschi: Don’t be surprised if Pats defenders tackle low on Broncos receivers if done to Gronk.”
But if that's the "only way" to tackle guys, wouldn't they be doing it anyway?
The only thing I am confident in, is that the refs wont hesitate to eject players if this turns into a knee hunting game. Otherwise the NFL runs the risk of having another CIN/PIT game
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
The only thing I am confident in, is that the refs wont hesitate to eject players if this turns into a knee hunting game. Otherwise the NFL runs the risk of having another CIN/PIT game
Unless someone takes out a QB egregiously late, Id guess there is a zero percent chance of someone getting ejected for hitting someone in the knees. The league wants defenders to go low.
 

Kevin Youkulele

wishes Claude Makelele was a Red Sox
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2006
9,327
San Diego
The only thing I am confident in, is that the refs wont hesitate to eject players if this turns into a knee hunting game. Otherwise the NFL runs the risk of having another CIN/PIT game
Have you ever seen an ejection for knee hunting? I mean, this is the NFL that did not eject Beckham or Suh for blatant attempts to injure, let alone Burfict. Tackling low is not even a per se penalty.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,711
Philadelphia
I have some of the same doubts about Bedard's suggestions that others have voiced. But thinking and googling about dime versus 11 personnel led me to a semi-interesting piece. I'm not sure what he has done in Denver. But when Wade Phillips was coaching the Texans, he had an interesting tendency in which Houston was both the most likely team to play base against 11 personnel and also the most likely team to play dime. Basically, whereas almost every other team in the league was most likely to counter 11 personnel with nickel, Phillips hardly played nickel at all and just swung between base and dime.

What does that mean for Sunday? I have no clue, other than the general belief that playing base against our 11 personnel would be suicidal. But Phillips is clearly not afraid to do some unconventional things in matching up with that personnel grouping.
 

MainerInExile

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2003
4,825
Bay Area
Dime and forcing the Pats to hand off to James White isn't the craziest strategy I've heard
Interestingly, I would imagine that is the plan for this game - to throw, a lot. Spread the Broncos out, make quick throws, take advantage of their not-so-deep secondary.

So if you're the Broncos, why not play a dime, even on 1st down? Dare them to make 80-year-old Steven Jackson beat you.
You don't say.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
11,252
Dime and forcing the Pats to hand off to James White isn't the craziest strategy I've heard
How is dime going to force the Pats to do anything? Bringing in a CB that hasn't played a snap all year to matchup with either Dola or K Martin seems like something the Pats would love to see. If they had depth at CB then dime might provide some benefit but their LBs can cover pretty well so removing one is taking out one more guy that can tackle which might be important if Harris really is as hurt as believed.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Agreed in theory dime is good but with Harris hurt/limited and Bolden out who is going to be out there?
 

GeorgeCostanza

tiger king
SoSH Member
May 16, 2009
7,290
Go f*ck yourself
That game was the first time my little brother (well not so little anymore but 10 years my junior) saw my raging temper. My little Nokia cell phone did not make it to end of the game in one piece.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
45,951
Here
Fortunately, the worst a bad PI call for Manning can cost us now is about 18 yards.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
1) For anyone looking to do some pre game reading, the Inside the Pylon guys collected all of their coverage from this season of the Broncos and Pats. It's here: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/nfl-playoffs/2016/01/22/afc-championship-game-preview-new-england-patriots-at-denver-broncos/

2) The more I think about this game, the better I feel.

I have some of the same doubts about Bedard's suggestions that others have voiced. ...
What does that mean for Sunday? I have no clue, other than the general belief that playing base against our 11 personnel would be suicidal. But Phillips is clearly not afraid to do some unconventional things in matching up with that personnel grouping.
Here's an old (Jan. 2013) article from WEEI on Brady vs. Phillips game by game. http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/football/patriots/christopher-price/2013/01/10/tom-brady-has-wade-phillips-number

Overall, I feel like Wade has only really succeeded against Brady when the Pats have been thin on offense: he's 2-5 against Brady. The 2 losses were this November (discussed ad naseum, but the Pats scored 24 points without Edelman) and a Chargers blowout (41-17) back in 2005 against an injury ravaged Pats team (that day Tim Dwight caught a TD pass for us and Patrick Pass led the team in receptions).
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
45,951
Here
Polian went on a rant yesterday about how Brady and Manning are playing at an equal level. It's a good example of just how deluded some people at the WWL really are.
 

GeorgeCostanza

tiger king
SoSH Member
May 16, 2009
7,290
Go f*ck yourself
Polian went on a rant yesterday about how Brady and Manning are playing at an equal level. It's a good example of just how deluded some people at the WWL really are.
I just assumed him and Irsay were on the outs aft he got fired in Indy. Pretty cool that they're still close enough to the point Irsay shares the drugs.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Florio was on D&C a little while ago and they asked him about that statement. Florio said Polian hates BB so much nothing he says about the Patriots can be believed.
This is obviously nothing most here don't know but it was interesting to hear a national guy be so blunt about it.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
62,385
New York City
Florio was on D&C a little while ago and they asked him about that statement. Florio said Polian hates BB so much nothing he says about the Patriots can be believed.
This is obviously nothing most here don't know but it was interesting to hear a national guy be so blunt about it.
I think that is very clear when he says things like, "Manning and Brady are playing at a similar level." That is a Baghdad Bob level of denial and dishonesty. It's an insult to both Manning and Brady, in fact, to say they are on the same level.
 

Hagios

New Member
Dec 15, 2007
672
The Patriots left for Denver today, one day early because of the storm. I'm glad because it will give them one more day to acclimatize. In fact, I wish they left yesterday. Three days will get most of the acclimatization done.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
I thought the consensus from research was that it didn't really make a difference if you went one day early or three days early, that you needed a longer amount of time to acclimate to altitude?
 

phenweigh

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2005
1,380
Brewster, MA
In my limited experience it seems to vary widely from person to person. My wife has a tough time adjusting and it doesn't seem to bother me much.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
11,252
I thought the consensus from research was that it didn't really make a difference if you went one day early or three days early, that you needed a longer amount of time to acclimate to altitude?
Shhh... placebo effect in play
 

Pxer

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 16, 2007
1,753
Maine
In regards to Denver playing dime against our 11 personnel -- the Patriots would run all over that in early downs. Even if the secondary was healthy, that would be a major mistake by Wade Phillips.

I do think we're going to see a lot more sub runs this week compared to those high volume passing games.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,481
Canton, MA
I thought the consensus from research was that it didn't really make a difference if you went one day early or three days early, that you needed a longer amount of time to acclimate to altitude?
You're correct. It takes several weeks for any beneficial effects of acclimatization to occur. Anything less than that and it makes no difference.

No offense to phenweigh's limited experience, but this has been documented in many studies (and discussed in one of the other threads here already) and he's wrong.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,995
deep inside Guido territory
You're correct. It takes several weeks for any beneficial effects of acclimatization to occur. Anything less than that and it makes no difference.

No offense to phenweigh's limited experience, but this has been documented in many studies (and discussed in one of the other threads here already) and he's wrong.
It's more so getting out of the Northeast in advance of the winter storm and also giving the team an extra day to get used to the time change.
 
Dec 21, 2015
1,410
I thought the consensus from research was that it didn't really make a difference if you went one day early or three days early, that you needed a longer amount of time to acclimate to altitude?
My understanding, perhaps erroneous, is that it can take up to a month at altitude for your body to start producing more red blood cells, which is why Everest climbers stop at base camp for a while before going up. However, I did think that there was also an intermediate adaptation that can occur within a few days. When going to Cusco, Peru, they suggest waiting 2 days in Cusco (elevation: 10k) before going on any of the big regional hikes. They also strongly suggest that you take acetazolamide, which as I understand it is basically the one medication that does anything: it reduces the pH of your blood back down to normal levels, but it takes ~2 days to take effect. Maybe that's why a few days at altitude can be an initial help; it doesn't boost your red blood cell count, but it can be enough time to negate respiratory alkalosis (Thanks, wikipedia!)