Brady/Manning XVII

[nothumb]

Put me in the camp that says Denver doesn't have the personnel to play press man against us if we go spread. Not only because our 4th and 5th options should be able to beat up on their weaker coverage guys all day, but also because it forces them to tackle Gronk and Edelman 1-on-1 and sets up huge YAC if they miss one.

My big fears in this game are refs, dirty hits and fluky turnovers. If the Pats avoid those, they should be in control. I was very pleased with the ball security against KC (aside from needing an underwear change on the last series, obv). If they can maintain that in DEN they will be in great shape.

 

[shoosh77]

I think SJax can have some impact also if they go with Chandler, Gronk and the vanilla midgets. Then you either have 7 lineman and run or spread out and throw.

 

[j-man]

Denver plays stronger as the game goes on if u beat the broncos u need to be up by 10 going into the 4th

this denver team reminds me of the 2001 pats

last season and in 2013 Denver would fold at any trouble

oh
if Hochuli is the Ref u lose all he cares about is the home team and showing his pecs off he plays up to the fans

If Vinovich is the Ref u win because Vinovich dislikes manning Manning is like 0-8 when Vinovich refs

look u are the better team and u shouild win but if its close the NFL will lean toward Denver

and make fun of me on feb 8th but if Denver beats NE and gets Arizona denver wins

i will break down both NFC teams right here just in case u win 45-10

Car - QB can beat u with his Legs and Arm they love to Run with stewart tolbert aris payne stewart is the homerun guy WR are just OK but Olson is a top 5 TE OL is So-so ex at C best front 7 in NFL Noman is a top 2 CB only weakness is they get too agg on def
wouild be even with u or win by 3 wouild beat denver by 10

Zona they are the 1980 raiders in that they have a deep passing game and power running they hate throwing short So-so OL Palmer gagged until the 4th aga gb only off weapon they have is fitlz brady will eat them up
ne wins by 17 den wins by 7

oh btw football zebras.com Based on the assignment of Hochuli and Vinovich to an NFC and AFC divisional game respectively, it is believed that the championship game assignments would switch conferences, thus putting Hochuli in Denver for the Patriots-Broncos game and Bill Vinovich in Charlotte, N.C., for the Cardinals-Panthers

 

[nothumb]

I think SJax can have some impact also if they go with Chandler, Gronk and the vanilla midgets. Then you either have 7 lineman and run or spread out and throw.

I think the problem with this is that Chandler in his current form doesn't really create much of a mismatch as an in-line TE in the passing game and isn't a great run blocker. Going only from memory, when Pats have gone to 12 personnel in the past they usually did it with Williams (though not sure if Chandler's health played a part in that too). Also I think you are a bit less versatile with SJax in that personnel grouping because you're not going to flex him out wide like they do with White or Bolden, and who knows if they trust him with all the different blocking schemes and audibles yet.

Even when they had LGBT healthy and ran from a 2TE set they usually went with more of a traditional power run / play action mix. I would expect they have a similar package for Jackson and I wouldn't be surprised to see him contribute in it if they like the matchup (especially later in the game if they are trying to protect a lead). But I don't expect to see them run the spread hurry up out of 2TE with him if that's what they're looking for... I think if they are looking to exploit multi-formation matchup issues out of the hurry up it will be out of 11 personnel with White or Bolden because they can flex out wide against a LB or draw a DB away from another receiver.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Denver did this a few years ago against the pats. I helped someone on sosh get a ticket.

Pretty sure the Rockies did it in 07 too.

Is this ticket thing more or less egregious than when the Washington football team would only allow you to buy season tickets if you had the team sponsored Chase Visa card?

 

[amarshal2]

PFT Commenter's takes this week are so hot, Jerry Jones tried to grope them. Brady-Manning figures prominently.

Also the better the Patriots do, the less severe there deflategate penalty bcomes. Every position their draft slot falls is another twist of the knife for Goodell. Its like in 2003 and your mom punishes you by taking a way your Chumbawamba CD, oh no Mom you gona take my pogs too? Idiot

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

In Denver, air gets you.

Quick check of 4th Quarter differentiation this year: Denver 63 pts - Visitor 40 pts.

Not scientific, but I assume the Pats know how to pace themselves against the best home field advantage in sports.

To add context: +25 pt differential in the 4th quarter, and with a 3-0 record in OT this season they are +12 there too. But the team as a whole is only +66, so in the first 3 quarters, they total a +29 point differential.

Of their seven 4th-quarter comebacks this year, Manning (10 GS) led 5 of them, and Osweiler (7 GS) led 2. Brady's Patriots only had 2 4QCs this year (vs NYJ & @NYG).

Let's add to the sample size and check out the entire Peyton-era Broncos (including postseason):
2012: +67 in 4Q/OT, +122 qtrs 1-3 (+41/quarter), 1.65 ratio
2013: +56 in 4Q/OT, +133 qtrs 1-3 (+43/quarter), 1.26 ratio
2014: -6 in 4Q/OT, +123 qtrs 1-3 (+41/quarter), ~0 ratio
2015: +37 in 4Q/OT, +29 qtrs 1-3 (+10/quarter), 3.83 ratio
Total: +154 in 4Q/OT, +407 qtrs 1-3 (+136/quarter), 1.14 ratio

So, first off, Denver was much stronger in 2012-2013 than it is today, just in general but also in the 4th quarter. But secondly, Denver's dominance late-game is a bit fluky in its outsize ratio this season, partly because their overall point differentials are so low in the first place. Viewed as a 4-year sample, Denver outperforms its Q1-Q3 averages by 14% in the 4th quarter and OT, but that may not be significant enough to be a real effect.

 

[dynomite]

Sort of an aside, but with the Friday/Saturday snowstorm prediction I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats to head to Denver a little early this week.

 

[Dehere]

Weather forecast should have Pats fans even happier to be going to Denver IMO. Weather can be a great equalizer of course and PIT is pretty strong up front on both sides. Think you're going to get a more true result in Denver.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Weather forecast should have Pats fans even happier to be going to Denver IMO. Weather can be a great equalizer of course and PIT is pretty strong up front on both sides. Think you're going to get a more true result in Denver.

I hear you regarding the true result thing. I worry about that the most when the Patriots are playing a crappy team and there's the chance that weather could make the game more random.

But the Pats tend to play very well in the snow and Peyton Manning tends to suck in cold weather. I would have been very happy with a Pats snow game against the Steelers and, as a next best thing, a very cold day in Denver. We're getting neither.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

The 2015 Denver Broncos reminds me of those Pat Riley-coached Knicks teams that were grinders on defense, with not much offense needed to sustain victories.

And I do think a fast start will be the key for the Patriots. Watching PIT/DEN, they kept stalling and getting in their own way on drives, which kept DEN hanging around long enough to push past and lockdown the 4th Quarter.

And the field position game was a wretched failure by the Steelers. Wheaton had a nightmare game fielding punts, and I was astounded that Tomlin didn't make a change (maybe he couldn't, but that's on his preparation too).

I don't see New England being that terrible with kick receiving nor kicking fundamentals. Ryan Allen needs to have another standard "do your job" type of game, but I also think he's a very key factor in that stadium if we are fortunate enough in discussing how the Patriots won the game Sunday night.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I hear you regarding the true result thing. I worry about that the most when the Patriots are playing a crappy team and there's the chance that weather could make the game more random.

But the Pats tend to play very well in the snow and Peyton Manning tends to suck in cold weather. I would have been very happy with a Pats snow game against the Steelers and, as a next best thing, a very cold day in Denver. We're getting neither.

Agree totally Theo. Genoasalami made a post in the game thread suggesting that latest models had the weather a bit colder and windier in Denver this weekend than info on most popular web sites. So there may still be some hope for relatively tough conditions.

 

[Stitch01]

I actually don't think Wheaton ended up being that much of a negative factor because he luckboxed into that touchback and gained 13 yards of field position vs. what a competent player would have gotten. Boy was he terrifying though.

Also not sure how predictive Manning being bad in the cold would be for this week. He doesn't throw the ball downfield anymore even if its 75 and sunny.

 

[Koufax]

 

[kelpapa]

Is this ticket thing more or less egregious than when the Washington football team would only allow you to buy season tickets if you had the team sponsored Chase Visa card?

I wasn't passing judgement on it- Just stating that they have done it before. I don't really care what Washington does to their season ticket holders.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I actually don't think Wheaton ended up being that much of a negative factor because he luckboxed into that touchback and gained 13 yards of field position vs. what a competent player would have gotten. Boy was he terrifying though.

Also not sure how predictive Manning being bad in the cold would be for this week. He doesn't throw the ball downfield anymore even if its 75 and sunny.

Fair point though I am not sure that Manning is only hurt by the cold with respect to downfield throws. I get the logic for that but he seems to just suck in all respects when its chilly. His record in below 40 or freezing cold temps is bad, and probably some of that has to do with playing so many games in a dome or in southern climes. Either way, here's to Genoasalami being right.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I wonder how much the Pats will do full scale prep work on Osweiller? It certainly seems possible that the Pats could run into the funny situation where they knock Manning out of the game only to run into the better QB option for Denver.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The colder the better, but I would prefer good weather in Denver to a snowstorm in Foxboro this year, despite Brady's record in the snow. Denver's D leads them, not Manning, and I will take conditions with as little variance as possible, plus I want the receivers to be able to take advantage of their quickness. I really think Brady is going to march up and down the field Sunday.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I wonder how much the Pats will do full scale prep work on Osweiller? It certainly seems possible that the Pats could run into the funny situation where they knock Manning out of the game only to run into the better QB option for Denver.

Full scale prep? Maybe. But given that they've already done a week's worth of full scale prep for Osweiler back in week 12, I'd imagine they can rely on that and maybe just a bit of refresher during this week to be prepared enough for the possibility of seeing him on Sunday.

 

[ObstructedView]

Interestingly, 538 has this as a 59% win probability for Denver - going almost exactly opposite where Vegas is. I know their "ELO" methodology doesn't factor in in-season personnel changes such as teams getting healthier. Reading through some of the comments, there seemed to be a general consensus around the notion that Denver should be favored since the Pats' win over KC wasn't really very impressive in light of the Chiefs' injuries -- an interesting thing to hang your hat on if you're picking the Broncos, since they had to scrap their way to a home victory over a significantly compromised Steeler team.

This just has the feeling of one of those games where the Pats go in and take care of business, and make some of us feel silly for being anxious. I'm definitely more confident than I was last time.

 

[Devizier]

Interestingly, 538 has this as a 59% win probability for Denver - going almost exactly opposite where Vegas is. I know their "ELO" methodology doesn't factor in in-season personnel changes such as teams getting healthier. Reading through some of the comments, there seemed to be a general consensus around the notion that Denver should be favored since the Pats' win over KC wasn't really very impressive in light of the Chiefs' injuries -- an interesting thing to hang your hat on if you're picking the Broncos, since they had to scrap their way to a home victory over a significantly compromised Steeler team.

This just has the feeling of one of those games where the Pats go in and take care of business, and make some of us feel silly for being anxious. I'm definitely more confident than I was last time.

59% and +3 aren't exactly "high confidence" in either direction. Basically everyone is calling it a "pick em" more or less, and that sounds about right to me.

 

[joe dokes]

Agree totally Theo. Genoasalami made a post in the game thread suggesting that latest models had the weather a bit colder and windier in Denver this weekend than info on most popular web sites. So there may still be some hope for relatively tough conditions.

The NWS's view:

THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME
RAIN OR SNOW. THE PHASE OF PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DEFINE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF SUNDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM.

 

[dcmissle]

Interestingly, 538 has this as a 59% win probability for Denver - going almost exactly opposite where Vegas is. I know their "ELO" methodology doesn't factor in in-season personnel changes such as teams getting healthier. Reading through some of the comments, there seemed to be a general consensus around the notion that Denver should be favored since the Pats' win over KC wasn't really very impressive in light of the Chiefs' injuries -- an interesting thing to hang your hat on if you're picking the Broncos, since they had to scrap their way to a home victory over a significantly compromised Steeler team.

This just has the feeling of one of those games where the Pats go in and take care of business, and make some of us feel silly for being anxious. I'm definitely more confident than I was last time.

Football Outsiders is not far off:

Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
CAR 100.0% 64.9% 36.3%
DEN 100.0% 58.0% 26.6%
NE 100.0% 42.0% 19.2%
ARI 100.0% 35.1% 17.9%

It cannot track health and does not even try apart from weighing more recent games more heavily. Which means the Pats undoubtedly are paying a high price for NYJ and Mia games. Which leaves me unworried

 

[Stitch01]

Most of the Vegas numbers/power rankings have this as Denver -1 or something like that for similar reasons to ELO, it includes six weeks of Pats games that rankings aren't really sure how to rate, they just include them as if its the same team which can't really be accurate. Many books tried to open it -.2.5 but money just flooded them on the Pats side. It probably wont move off the 3 much, too many numbers guys will buy back the 3.5, but books likely will be OK taking more Pats money than Broncos money at -3.

 

[genoasalami]

The NWS's view:

THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME
RAIN OR SNOW. THE PHASE OF PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DEFINE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF SUNDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM.

I don't see weather as a factor. Temps will be in the low 40s. Bit breezy with nothing more than a passing rain or snow shower.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Interestingly, 538 has this as a 59% win probability for Denver - going almost exactly opposite where Vegas is. I know their "ELO" methodology doesn't factor in in-season personnel changes such as teams getting healthier.

Or teams not actually prioritizing winning over other goals, like getting/staying healthy. Even after being banged up for weeks, and losing to Denver and Philly, the Patriots' ELO rating was 1717 after the Titans game and 1689 after the second Jets game. But because we lost to a very bad Miami team, ELO dropped to 1644.

Basically, ELO would have thought the Patriots team after the Titans game, even without Edelman and others, was a huge favorite to beat Denver and the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even after the Jets loss, ELO would have thought we were a substantial favorite to beat Denver. But because we lost to Miami in a game where we rested starters and didn't really try to win, ELO thinks we are now - even fully healthy - an underdog to Denver and the least likely team to win the Super Bowl.

Its a stupid system.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't see weather as a factor. Temps will be in the low 40s. Bit breezy with nothing more than a passing rain or snow shower.

Low 40s and a bit breezy is still potentially a factor for Manning, if not for most football players and games.

 

[dcmissle]

Number crunchers have no way to process the variance between the week 16 and 17 rosters and who the Pats fielded on Saturday - much less process who was impaired, and to what extent and for how long, on both Denver and NE this past weekend.

Our roster prior to Dion going down in week 8 is meaningless to me -- but so are teams fielded against the Jets and Mia.

This is a massive weakness, and there is no way to adjust for it when teams are significantly banged up. They are evaluating phantom teams.

I believe ELO had the Pats over KC only 51/49.

 

[GregHarris]

The NWS's view:

THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME
RAIN OR SNOW. THE PHASE OF PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DEFINE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF SUNDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM.

I can't tell if that's a weather report or the opening stages of Operation Barbarossa.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Wouldn't using composite player ratings to come up with a team rating make much more sense as a metric?

For example, if there is a reliable player rating system that theoretically has a scale of 1-10 (for simplicity sake) with each player being assigned some number on that scale based on past performace with 1 being a very bad player and 10 being once in a generation type performance. Use those numbers as a composite to come up with a team rating that would account for who is or is not on the field for any given game.

Game 1:
Player A rating: 5
Player B rating: 7
Player C rating 3
Team rating: 15

Game 2 (player B hurt):
Player A rating: 5
Player C rating: 3
Player D (playing for Player A) rating: 5:
Team rating: 13

I know this is simplistic, but there would obviously be some advanced metric to measure the player ratings and the another advanced metric to measure team ratings based off of player ratings for each game.

I'm probably over simplifying this and I'm sure there are holes in it, but this has been bouncing around in my head for a while.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah the most accurate way would probably just be to take whatever the Pats rating was when Edelman got hurt and then dock it by a point or a point and a half or something like that to account for Lewis.

 

[DJnVa]

The last time the Pats played Denver LaFell played 66 of 66 offensive snaps and Keshawn Martin played 61.

Neither of those will come close to happening this time.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If Patriots go press man, watch for some possible double moves if this thought from Emmanuel Sanders is shared by the coaching staff.

Vic Lombardi ‏@VicLombardi 44s44 seconds ago
E-Sanders just told @SusieWargin the Broncos should have run more double moves against the Steelers. Two thoughts...

Thought #1 from Vic

Vic Lombardi ‏@VicLombardi 1m1 minute ago
....does Peyton have the arm and/or the time? The Pats will have dudes sitting on the sticks as well.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

And some people wonder why Bill hates people talking to the media.

 

[DJnVa]

Double moves which mean Manning is going to have to hold the ball a bit longer and then, when he throws it, have to throw a bit further?

Yes please.

 

[Auger34]

Number crunchers have no way to process the variance between the week 16 and 17 rosters and who the Pats fielded on Saturday - much less process who was impaired, and to what extent and for how long, on both Denver and NE this past weekend.

Our roster prior to Dion going down in week 8 is meaningless to me -- but so are teams fielded against the Jets and Mia.

This is a massive weakness, and there is no way to adjust for it when teams are significantly banged up. They are evaluating phantom teams.

I believe ELO had the Pats over KC only 51/49.

This is correct. By the ELO metric the New England/KC game was the closest of the week. But, as you and others pointed out, ELO is not predictive in this case since it is docking a team that will not be out there on Sunday

 

[soxhop411]

Based on the assignment of Hochuli and Vinovich to an NFC and AFC divisional game respectively, it is believed that the championship game assignments would switch conferences, thus putting Hochuli in Denver for the Patriots-Broncos game and Bill Vinovich in Charlotte, N.C., for the Cardinals-Panthers.

http://www.footballzebras.com/2016/01/17/hochuli-and-vinovich-likely-conference-championship-referees/

 

[RedOctober3829]

ENGLEWOOD — Do the Broncos think Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is a crybaby?

"That would be an accurate statement. I've never seen any quarterback look to the referee right after he gets sacked more than Brady," defensive lineman Antonio Smith said with a smile at Dove Valley on Monday. "Every time he gets sacked he looks at the ref like, 'You see him sack me? Was that supposed to happen? He did it a little hard. Please throw a 15-yard penalty on him. Get him fined.'"

http://gazette.com/klee-broncos-prepare-for-crybaby-patriots-in-afc-title-game/article/1568112

 

[NortheasternPJ]

From the same article:

"He's not going to rattle just because you hit him hard. I've tried over the years," Smith said. "That's what D-linemen think: 'The harder you hit the quarterback, the better it will make it on the secondary.'

"With Brady, he's a great competitor. You know it's coming. He's going to cry about getting hit, but he's going to take the hit and keep going."

 

[mwonow]

Double moves which mean Manning is going to have to hold the ball a bit longer and then, when he throws it, have to throw a bit further?

Yes please.

...or make him guess about the success of the move and throw to a spot - essentially, with the receiver faking but the QB not.

Could be a good game for McCourty

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

Also, I know we thought it might be gamesmanship, but a Denver beat guy seems to thinks Harris's shoulder is pretty messed up:

http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_29401777/harris-shoulders-responsibility-keeping-edelman-check

I'd go at him early and often. Make him tackle. Press coverage might be an issue for him, too.

As an aside, combine this with the Sanders quote about double moves, and these Denver players seem to reveal way to much to the media. BB would be having conniptions.

 

[Captaincoop]

Having watched this Belichick/Brady Patriots train roll for 15 years, there is nothing that makes me feel more secure going into a big game than hearing the other team make stupid and/or inflammatory statements.

So far this week we have "Gronk is only good because he pushes off all the time" and "Brady is a crybaby". Me likey.

 

[rodderick]

Brady hates getting hit so much he turtles to the ground like a scared 3 year old every time a defender comes within 10 feet of him. Or is that another quarterback?

 

[mwonow]

Brady hates getting hit so much he turtles to the ground like a scared 3 year old every time a defender comes within 10 feet of him. Or is that another quarterback?

It's not really turtling if the refs let you get up and throw the ball

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Brady hates getting hit so much he turtles to the ground like a scared 3 year old every time a defender comes within 10 feet of him.

And doesn't get whistled down when he slides and gives himself up.

 

[CoolPapaLaSchelle]

Also, I know we thought it might be gamesmanship, but a Denver beat guy seems to thinks Harris's shoulder is pretty messed up:

http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_29401777/harris-shoulders-responsibility-keeping-edelman-check

I'd go at him early and often. Make him tackle. Press coverage might be an issue for him, too.

As an aside, combine this with the Sanders quote about double moves, and these Denver players seem to reveal way to much to the media. BB would be having conniptions.

If only there were some blueprint we could dig up here...

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Looking at some numbers, one area that we'll have a huge advantage in this game is in the red zone. This could actually be Manning's biggest weakness at this point. Once the field gets short and very congested, he simply may not have the arm strength and ball placement to rifle the football into tight windows between defenders. He only threw 6 red zone TDs all year and three of those were from the 1-yard-line. He hasn't thrown a red zone TD from beyond the 1-yard-line since September.

 

[BuellMiller]

Hopefully he's related to this guy?:

 

[RedOctober3829]

Bedard on F&M: Patriots shouldn't have any problems with the Broncos matchup-wise. Manning is not even as good as Alex Smith and can't take advantage of anything the Patriots might screw up down the field.