Oh, no doubt. It wouldn't surprise me that this situation has been discussed. But, like anything, it depends on the guy with the whistle
I may be a homer, but IMO this can be said about every skill position player on the field for every team. In fact, I find it annoying how every time there is a long pass, one or both of the defensive and offensive players are looking for a flag. It's very much like the NBA in that respect, but slightly less annoying because the begging / complaining isn't happening during live ball game play.
What I love is that he describes the way Brady looks at the ref. Meaning he doesn't generally voice a complaint after a sack, but the Broncos can sense he felt entitled to a flag based on his facial expressions.
It's more of a misapplication than a stupid underlying system, I'd say. Elo ratings work surprisingly well when you have hundreds of homogeneous, binary-outcome, equally-meaningful datapoints, and a bunch of tightly-clustered competitors trying to differentiate themselves. Chess is of course the original example: a top player will play dozens of matches even within a single tournament, and hundreds over the course of a year, and their health isn't an issue. Tennis is similar: matches are 1v1, health is close to binary (not many players would tough out a tournament despite severe illness the way Serena Williams did at last year's French Open - you'd have to be the favorite to win a Major to justify that), lots of players whose outcomes against each other aren't all that certain, and even though you've got multiple sets, the match outcome is still pretty much binary (and it ain't over until the last point, unlike sports with timed contests).
Nice insight. Perhaps Bill and MattyP will spend the first three quarters guarding against the deep pass with a plan to hold the Broncos in the Red Zone. Then they'll mix it up when they have to...similar to the Chiefs game. Everyone's expecting the Pats to come out and be aggressive and press - and maybe they will - but I'm not sure. Personally, I'd like to see the Pats be aggressive because I think they can really handle Denver and make it a multi-score game early. But BB knows a lot better than Dabo Swinney how you can lose an otherwise dominant game by getting beat on a few long plays.
It points to, I think, Brady and the Patriots being in the heads of some of the Broncos. TJ Ward is the same way. Won't bother me a bit if some of these guys are more focused on disliking the Pats than they are on doing their jobs
Good post, I've been thinking along similar lines. The conventional wisdom is that Manning can't throw deep so of course you press at the line of scrimmage. But there is a real counter-argument for limiting the possibility of high variance big plays and that, without a few of those, a Manning-led offense just isn't capable of scoring enough points.
Meh -- it's not weird to me at all. I think PFT is right when he questions if they are just trying to sway the officials.
I think Elo ratings are fine as a retrospective look at seasons - the 538 results look pretty decent if your goal is answering a bar argument about whether the the '85 Bears or the '07 Patriots team was more dominant. It's the application of Elo to prediction that is the bad use of the model.
I guess the counter-counter-argument is that the offense isn't capable of scoring enough points until they get to the 4th quarter, when the going suddenly gets easier against a defense worn down from defending all these mostly-fruitless, occasionally-field-goal-yielding, often-extended dink-and-dunk drives. I feel like the Pats can be largely successful in either gameplan (press or prevent), and so I wonder how much they might adjust the plan based on how the offense is looking and how much rest they're affording the defense.
Great post, thanks. The bolded part perfectly gets to my thoughts— that I'm not capable of articulating as well— as to why it wouldn't surprise me to see them duplicate the Steelers' defensive approach.
Wouldn't the ideal defense to play on Peyton then be the old school Tampa 2? Cover short and deep sidelines and leave the middle seams vulnerable so Peyton has to throw over the top of the MLB or whistle the ball into tight windows?
It's even better when a angle includes a sideline shot and you can see 15-20 guys all clustered near the sideline ref making the flag motion after every incomplete pass play.
So, the Broncos are trying to sway officials by complaining that Brady tries to sway officials
Bedard just predicted a Pats victory, 42-17. Felger and Mazz practically fell out of their seats. And I can kind of see why. I feel confident, but that's a little crazy.
This, along with home field influenced refs is what I am worried about. Under the guise of "the only way to tackle Gronk is to hit him low," this is in reality carte blanche to take cheap shots at his knees. TJ Ward has already done this to Gronk once in his career. With a Super Bowl bonus on the line I fully expect multiple cheap shots thrown at the Patriots by the Denver defense and by their offensive line. They have a history of dirty play that stretches back to Lyle Alzado, all the way forward to Welker's cheap shot against Aqib Talib two years ago and now these quotes from Harris.
Honestly, it doesn't seem all that far-fetched to me. The Pats jumped out 14-0 missing some huge pieces and likely would have won going away if Chris Harper hadn't muffed a punt. If they get up 10+ early with a healthy offense, which I think is quite possible (especially if Harris is limited), it's easy to see how this could turn into a rout.
Absolutely.
Yes. The problem is a certain teammate of his likes to launch himself helmet first into Gronk's knees. There isn't a single other player who does this consistently, so I'm going to go ahead and call it dirty.
Yep nothing to get upset over here, it is literally the only way a DB has any chance to tackle Gronk. While true that Ward takes it to another level and I'll cringe every time I see it, Harris is 100% correct.
Ugh. Already retweeted over 4,000 times.Rob Gronkowski @RobGronkowski 9m9 minutes ago
Rob Gronkowski Retweeted Paety Winant
Heard their whole team is good at giving low blows
Paety Winant @PaetyWinant 41m41 minutes ago
Heard the DenverBroncos are gunna hit @RobGronkowski in the knees to bring him down, @Patriots, be careful. Don't wanna see him hurt again!
Good watch. I wonder how much they'll change this on the notion that the Patriots run defense is weaker than the Steelers.
