Good to see that it looks like we might actually see a Holt/Nava tandem in the OF while we wait for Vic. Holt's high OBP in the lineup has been a big spark for the offense. The black hole situated directly behind the 1-4 hitters is the problem now and if Nava is getting back on track his high OBP grinding is exactly the kick starter needed to help out there. Add Napoli and the lineup might just be getting back to something resembling the pitcher meat grinder it was last season.
I'd rather they cut bait with Sizemore than demote Hassan since I think they still need to keep Nava in a straight platoon, but maybe they try Holt in RF if he handles LF ok for a few games. Unfortunately I feel like they're keeping Sizemore simply because he can play a passable CF and none of the other healthy OFs can.
seantoo said:
Another avenue that won't win me any friends is the idea of trading Pedrioa. I love Pedrioa too, however the very reasons of why you want a player like him can actually be why you'd consider trading him. He's a small player who plays all out and is becoming increasingly hurt and that is a trend likely to increase as he's on the wrong side of 30, 31 in about 2 months. He's signed through age 38 on a deal that increases during the middle years of the deal and tails back at the back side. It's a deal that many teams could afford. He's a former MVP that surely could bring back something of value to the team. Also the team has another Mighty Mouse in Mookie Betts whose 'natural' position in the minors has been second base. The team has been starting to play him in the OF because his way is blocked right now with Pedrioa. Betts is on the fast track likely making it to Boston late this year or more likely next year. The team is loaded with prospects near MLB ready at Catcher, Second, SS and Third, but lacking at 1B and the OF. Relatively soon this team won't have Ortiz bat in the line-up and will need a #3,#4 type batter added. Trading Pedrioa for an impact bat in the OF would help this team fill holes both in the field and in the line-up. It's not something I think they should do now but something I hope it considers in the next off-season or two.
Where is there even potential to trade Pedroia for an impact bat?
Betts was, by his own statements, more of a CF/SS prior to joining the organization. The Sox implicitly agreed when he played SS his first season in the system. He was a guy who wasn't supposed to be good enough to block when they drafted him. Turns out he was way better than expected way faster than expected, but the upside is that part of being a 5 tool athlete inherently carries the ability to play multiple positions if developed. You can't block guys like Betts, you just shift them off to a new position. That's like saying you could block Bogaerts with Drew. Impossible because Bogaerts' natural talents allow him to play a half dozen other positions and his bat would hold up well at all of them.
Pedroia is very valuable to other teams, true, but that's because he's an elite player and those will always be valued. He's most valuable to the Red Sox for that reason and four real noteworthy others (2007 ROY, 2008 MVP, 2007 WS Champ, 2013 WS Champ). He's a legacy player at 30 and he took a discount in exchange for more years specifically to stay with the Sox.
Also, players age that's life. So Pedroia likely won't be as good at 38 as he was at 28. That doesn't matter if at 38 he's still a better player than the roster spot he's taking at the time. He plays hard but so have a lot of other position players who have had strong careers into their late 30's. Instead of viewing players in the Steroid era paradigm where big power guys where the dominant late 30's stars still performing thanks to juicing we need to consider previous eras to see how a throw back player like Pedroia will age.
Pedroia is about a 5 WAR guy per year (almost on the dot mathematically, 5.1) by Baseball Reference's metrics. Joe Morgan was almost the exact same. Unlike Morgan Pedroia never lost an entire season to injury early on, just half a season after already establishing himself so health-wise Dustin is currently having a better track record than Morgan. Morgan's worst seasons came at 34 and 40 when he was a 1.6 WAR player. At 38 he had a 5.1 WAR season. In fact, Morgan didn't win his first MVP until he was 31.
I could write up similar comparisons for Cal Ripken, George Brett, Rod Carew (granted, he moved to 1B full time for his 30's), Charlie Gehringer (five straight 7.2 or better WAR years from 30 on), Barry Larkin (first negative WAR season at 38), Alan Trammel (though granted not great for 36-38), Ozzie Smith (not Pedroia's peer offensively but all four of his >100 OPS+ seasons came between the ages of 30 and 37), Robin Yount, Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, etc.. I could really keep going. That's Pedroia's peer group on a per season WAR average. He's higher than a lot of those guys in fact. Almost to a man they where still well above average players into their late 30's. All where infielders for most of their careers and most where considered good/high effort infielders.
You don't trade a Dustin Pedroia because he's more likely to win the MVP next year than be a below average player. Meanwhile the highest probability scenario is another 3.5-6.5 WAR season where he's one of the best middle infielders in the entire league yet again. Unless this team doesn't plan on competing for another 6 years Pedroia is a lock to be on his roster.
Also, Dustin is a potential Hall of Famer in 13 years. I'd prefer him to go in with only one team's logo on his cap.
