Carroll's Call

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I thought, when he finally broke it down, Pete made a pretty good case for his decision. They had one time out. They want three chances to win the Super Bowl if they need all three of them. With one time out, you have two runs and one pass.

If you run on second down and don't get it, you have to call your last time out. Then you throw, because at that point you can't run with no time outs. And on fourth, you run. So, Carroll's decision was to pass on second down when everyone is expecting the run. That gives him his two runs and a pass but just in a different order. Not sure the pass was the pass you want. But his logic makes some sense the way he explained it.

The little things matter. The fact that the Kearse catch was confusing, you could say, probably won the game. The confusion wound down the play clock and Seattle had to use their second time out. That's probably the game, because with two time outs, Lynch gets three chances to get a yard.

 

[Seels]

My stance on it is it's way overblown. The Seahawks don't have home field advantage without Carrol and Wilson being ballsy with play calling like this. They CERTAINLY don't win against Green Bay.
 
Live by the sword die by the sword.
 
Really, it was super lucky the Patriots caught it, but the Seahawks were playing with a rabbits foot up their ass all game.

 

[crystalline]

It was a fine call. They had three downs. You can't run four times, because as good as Lynch is, the Pats had stopped him a few times in the backfield. Zero deception means the Pats stack the box and stop Lynch.

Criticizing Carroll is like all the criticism of McDaniels when a play call doesn't work out.

You have to have a little deception in the NFL. Calling the pass was not the problem. The problem is that Malcolm Butler made an AMAZING play to arrive at the ball 4" in front of the receiver and pick it.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I think it is as bad or worse than Grady or McNamara.
 
When the Pats did not call time out I said the only way the Pats can win is if Seattle is dumb enough to throw.

 

[Comfortably Lomb]

Grady was worse. Holy shit Grady was worse. Three fucking World Series wins later and Grady was still worse. What a fucking assclown that guy was.

 

[Leather]

The thing is, the odds of an INT are so, so, slim. Like, negligable. Without looking it up, I'd have to imagine it's about as low as Lynch fumbling in 3 runs.

 

[garlan5]

worse call than my 9ers not running Gore a couple of superbowls ago. You only take a shot like that if it's the last play. Not to mention Lynch in the backfield. Too many chances for a tip.  Like reggie said I thought no way the Pats win unless they do something stupid like pass and get a tipped ball.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Reposting from the game thread.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E613YAIlM2Y

 

[semsox]

All the talk of how bad the call was sure sounds a lot different if Wilson hits his receiver where he should. The truth is that that inside slant is damn near indefensible. Was the Gronk TD vs. Baltimore not very similar? When you're that close to the goal-line, the play it takes to make that not worth it is nothing short of miraculous, which is what Butler's INT was.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
I put this in the other thread. This is what Wilson saw on the final play. THAT'S A FINE CALL AND 99% OF THE TIME IT'S A TD. BUTLER MADE A TREMENDOUS PLAY.

 

[jodyreeddudley78]

The thing is, the odds of an INT are so, so, slim. Like, negligable. Without looking it up, I'd have to imagine it's about as low as Lynch fumbling in 3 runs.

It can not be overstated what a play Butler made. For all the hindsight that I'm sure is going on in the Pacific Northwest, that play is a touchdown at least 80% of the time. Butler made the play of his life in the most dramatic situation possible. It was amazing and he deserves all the credit.

 

[Captaincoop]

All the talk of how bad the call was sure sounds a lot different if Wilson hits his receiver where he should. The truth is that that inside slant is damn near indefensible. Was the Gronk TD vs. Baltimore not very similar? When you're that close to the goal-line, the play it takes to make that not worth it is nothing short of miraculous, which is what Butler's INT was.

Exactly right. If that throw gets through to the receiver it was a complete non-issue. Butler made a phenomenal play and now it's the worst call ever.

Just give Butler credit.

 

[crystalline]

The thing is, the odds of an INT are so, so, slim. Like, negligable. Without looking it up, I'd have to imagine it's about as low as Lynch fumbling in 3 runs.

And remember on the last two goal line plays Wilson found a receiver wide open in the corner and beat Ryan. Both TDs. The goal line passes were working, and there was so little time left Seattle needed to score and not worry too much about clock for the Pats.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

I don't remember which NFL journalist posted it on Twitter, but 111 passes were thrown inside the 1 yard line this year. This was the first one intercepted all year. 
 
I think the Hawks were a bit stunned that BB did not have the Pats let Lynch score on the first down and even more stunned that the Pats did not call timeout. I don't know if BB was fucking up and got lucky or if it was actually incredible coaching voodoo that only BB is capable of, but damn, what a sequence. 

 

[Beomoose]

You know, if Lynch gets the ball and doesn't get in (Pats stuffed him a couple times), he's getting shat on for the next forever. Whatever the merits of the call, I'd much rather Pete get that shit than Marshawn.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

 
I put this in the other thread. This is what Wilson saw on the final play. THAT'S A FINE CALL AND 99% OF THE TIME IT'S A TD. BUTLER MADE A TREMENDOUS PLAY.

I made the Grady little comp in anther thread but this is spot on. I reserve the right to change my mind. And I have. Carols explanation made total sense and butler made a championship play.

 

[Norm Siebern]

I put this in the other thread, to me this call by Carroll had sound reasoning, but he was badly out coached by the greatest coach in history. This was just an example of Belichick's genius:
 
 
Belichick said it wasn't a goalline defense. Belichick said that when they put three WRs out there, he kept the corners in the game. If the Seahawks had put out TEs, then the Patriots would have sent out a true goal line defense. So it wasn't a true goalline D. He fooled Carroll. It was a situation they had practiced for. It was situational football, that they were prepared for.
 
Belichick outcoached Carroll on that play. Just schooled him. That is not the meme that the media will run with, that is not the script they will run, because they hate Belichick. Just despise him. But between Butler (a backup) being ready from study to know to jump the route after the pick play from Kearse, and Belichick keeping the cornerbacks in the game when they saw that the Seahawks had 3 WRs out there instead of TEs, it was just a masterful, once in a decade call by the best coach in football history. Again, NO ONE will give him the credit for that, but he just schooled Carroll. The media will attack Carroll, but they will ignore what Belichick did. But he absolutely schooled Carroll. And won his fourth Super Bowl.
 
I can just see him walking up to Malcom Butler in a practice down at the goal line, tellling him the situation "three WRs stack on the left, what will they do, what is your responsibility?" The man is the greatest coach in history. 
 
Time for a new paint job on the boat.

 

[Tony C]

I don't remember which NFL journalist posted it on Twitter, but 111 passes were thrown inside the 1 yard line this year. This was the first one intercepted all year. 
 
I think the Hawks were a bit stunned that BB did not have the Pats let Lynch score on the first down and even more stunned that the Pats did not call timeout. I don't know if BB was fucking up and got lucky or if it was actually incredible coaching voodoo that only BB is capable of, but damn, what a sequence. 

 
Ballsy call.
 
Great play by Butler.
 
Poor throw by Wilson.
 
And, okay, I kinda get that BB was playing voodoo by not calling the timeout, but could someone please tell me what the chess game was that he was playing, or did he just get lucky on that.

 

[Norm Siebern]

Belichick was playing chess, and Carroll was playing checkers.

 

[NDame616]

You know, if Lynch gets the ball and doesn't get in (Pats stuffed him a couple times), he's getting shat on for the next forever. Whatever the merits of the call, I'd much rather Pete get that shit than Marshawn.

 
No he doesn't You have 26 seconds to score. If he gets stuffed, fights at the goal line and doesn't get in, etc it is a non issue. It happens every game. They call a timeout and have 2 passes to win the game. 

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Couldn't disagree more regarding Grady
As stupid as Grady was he was still going with his stud over Alan embree or timlin.
You have lynch with one yard to go and at least two handoffs I mean it's such a no brainer.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
I put this in the other thread. This is what Wilson saw on the final play. THAT'S A FINE CALL AND 99% OF THE TIME IT'S A TD. BUTLER MADE A TREMENDOUS PLAY.

Holy shit. Look at that. 1100 plays, thousands of hours of film, weeks in the weightroom, all that, and that fucking kid just made the play of his life to win the fucking super bowl. Most of the time the best you can hope for is a deflection, but he just caught that thing.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

 
 
And, okay, I kinda get that BB was playing voodoo by not calling the timeout, but could someone please tell me what the chess game was that he was playing, or did he just get lucky on that.

 
I have not idea, and want to know why no one has asked BB this questions. 
 
Here is a good article, I am sure there are more to come: 
 

 
"We sent in our personnel, they sent in goal line," Carroll said. "It's not the right matchup for us to run the football so on second down, we throw the ball. Really, it's to kind of waste that play. If we score we do, if we don't we don't, then we run it on third and fourth down. No second thoughts, no hesitation."
The playcall, according to several players, was validated once they saw Doug Baldwin shift to the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, where he was followed by Darrelle Revis. New England had four defensive linemen, four linebackers and just three defensive backs on the field.
 





 
Seattle had their 11 personnel -- one tight end, three wide receivers and a running back. It was a tremendous advantage.
"It was a man-zone read," Doug Baldwin said. "I went over to the other side, Revis came over to my side so we realized it was man. It was the right read. It was the right side to go to."
The design was also something the players have been familiar with, a play they have run hundreds of times with the same receivers.
Jermaine Kearse was going to engage with the defensive back, providing a momentary -- and legal -- shield for Ricardo Lockette to cut underneath on the quick slant. If the play is frozen at the right moment, just before Malcolm Butler advances past Brandon Browner (the cornerback who is engaged with Kearse) it looks like it is working to perfection. There is not a player within three yards of him to the left side and there is four yards of open space directly in front of him. Butler is charging from the blind side.

 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000467667/article/what-went-wrong-on-the-seahawks-final-play?campaign=twitter_atn

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I don't remember which NFL journalist posted it on Twitter, but 111 passes were thrown inside the 1 yard line this year. This was the first one intercepted all year. 
 
I think the Hawks were a bit stunned that BB did not have the Pats let Lynch score on the first down and even more stunned that the Pats did not call timeout. I don't know if BB was fucking up and got lucky or if it was actually incredible coaching voodoo that only BB is capable of, but damn, what a sequence. 

So, what you're saying is that God didn't want Russell Wilson to win.  And he's going to hell.

 

[SumnerH]

 
Ballsy call.
 
Great play by Butler.
 
Poor throw by Wilson.
 
And, okay, I kinda get that BB was playing voodoo by not calling the timeout, but could someone please tell me what the chess game was that he was playing, or did he just get lucky on that.

It's been explained that he had the CBs in instead of the goal line d. A couple of thoughts:

A) if I call timeout, they switch to a run offense. I like this matchup, we've planned for it, don't let them switch.
B) stopping 3 plays is tough. Let them run it down to where they might only get 1 or 2 shots
C) they're expecting us to call TO. Make them run a play now when they're not fully expecting to rather than do the obvious and give them time to regroup and scheme.

 

[minischwab]

 
I put this in the other thread. This is what Wilson saw on the final play. THAT'S A FINE CALL AND 99% OF THE TIME IT'S A TD. BUTLER MADE A TREMENDOUS PLAY.

 
Looking at this, I would have been PISSED if they completed the pass for a TD with no flag.  Same play as the NE pick that got called earlier.  

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Belichick was playing chess, and Carroll was playing checkers.

 
You seem to be forgetting that Pete had kicked Bills ass on the same checkers board at the end of the first half and in the third quarter. Or was it all a long con? BB did a nice job of disguising the personnel grouping, and having even a rookie prepared to recognize and react is what makes him the greatest ever, but come on, that is bullshit. 
 
Please tell me with 46 seconds left  you were good with putting the season in the hands of the defense for four downs inside the five and giving Brady no chance to come back without the benefit of hindsight?  

 

[nattysez]

It's been explained that he had the CBs in instead of the goal line d. A couple of thoughts:

A) if I call timeout, they switch to a run offense. I like this matchup, we've planned for it, don't let them switch.
B) stopping 3 plays is tough. Let them run it down to where they might only get 1 or 2 shots
C) they're expecting us to call TO. Make them run a play now when they're not fully expecting to rather than do the obvious and give them time to regroup and scheme.

 
This is really well-put, and makes sense.  I think that BB knew that the jacked and pumped crew on the other sideline was not necessarily going to do well at making quick decisions, so he stayed in the defensive formation they had rather than letting the Seahawks re-think their call.  I've seen a few Twitter folks saying that BB was an idiot for not calling timeout, but I refuse to believe that a guy as smart as BB was just suddenly screwing up an end-of-game situation.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

If belichek was playin chess he would have called a TO and let Seattle score from the one to give the ball to Brady ASAP.
What happened was a fluke, not some result of belichek genius

 

[Tony C]

It's been explained that he had the CBs in instead of the goal line d. A couple of thoughts:

A) if I call timeout, they switch to a run offense. I like this matchup, we've planned for it, don't let them switch.
B) stopping 3 plays is tough. Let them run it down to where they might only get 1 or 2 shots
C) they're expecting us to call TO. Make them run a play now when they're not fully expecting to rather than do the obvious and give them time to regroup and scheme.

 
the defense was
 

 
New England had four defensive linemen, four linebackers and just three defensive backs on the field.
 

 
So I'm not buying into the we tricked him thing. Makes no sense.
 
I sort of get that BB decided it might cause confusion to not call our TO, but I sort of think Butler saved him from getting 2nd guessed a lot.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

It's been explained that he had the CBs in instead of the goal line d. A couple of thoughts:

A) if I call timeout, they switch to a run offense. I like this matchup, we've planned for it, don't let them switch.
B) stopping 3 plays is tough. Let them run it down to where they might only get 1 or 2 shots
C) they're expecting us to call TO. Make them run a play now when they're not fully expecting to rather than do the obvious and give them time to regroup and scheme.

 
 

 
This is really well-put, and makes sense.  I think that BB knew that the jacked and pumped crew on the other sideline was not necessarily going to do well at making quick decisions, so he stayed in the defensive formation they had rather than letting the Seahawks re-think their call.  I've seen a few Twitter folks saying that BB was an idiot for not calling timeout, but I refuse to believe that a guy as smart as BB was just suddenly screwing up an end-of-game situation.

 
 
That is a nice layout, Sumner.  A & C make a ton of sense, A is the best personnel patch up for New England and C is putting all of the hard work on the other guy. I wonder if the experience of watching the last two Super Bowl losses end on Hail Mary's to Moss & Gronk after the other team scored with less than a minute to play ( the 98 Farve - Elway Super Bowl also ended this way) caused BB to want to live or die with his defense this time. 
 
I really want someone to ask BB this question. I doubt his gives too much of his thought process away, but I would love to hear it. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Great stat that genoasalami posted during game thread:

Nathan Jahnke ‏@PFF_NateJahnke  8m8 minutes ago
Marshawn Lynch ran the ball from the 1 yard line 5 times this season. 1 TD, 2 runs for no gain, 2 runs for a loss.

 

[crystalline]

 
You seem to be forgetting that Pete had kicked Bills ass on the same checkers board at the end of the first half and in the third quarter. Or was it all a long con? BB did a nice job of disguising the personnel grouping, and having even a rookie prepared to recognize and react is what makes him the great ever, but come on, that is bullshit. 
 
Please tell me with 46 seconds left  you were good with putting the season in the hands of the defense for four downs inside the five and giving Brady no chance to come back without the benefit of hindsight?  

46 seconds left, Seattle has second down and you have two timeouts. They need a TD. If they score you need a FG to tie.

You can go all-in to stop them on defense and if you get three stops you win the game. Or, you can try to let them score and save time and hand the ball to your offense hoping to go to OT.

I think it's close but I almost think trusting the defense is the right call.

(And its even more defensible if BB liked the personnel matchup on 2nd down, thought it would be a pass which stops the clock if unsuccessful, and then could use a timeout on 3rd down.)

I totally agree that Carroll had gotten the best of the coaching matchup through the first drive of the 3rd quarter. When Seattle ran that play to Matthews in the first 3Q drive with Arrington still on him, I thought Bill had blown it and the game was in jeopardy. Pretty awesome to be vindicated as he was.

Edit: cross-post- I agree with you about trusting the defense

 

[SumnerH]

For the record, I was yelling at the tv to take a timeout. I'm just trying to think through post facto justifications for not doing so.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Interesting tidbit: 
 

 
 
And Christopher Price told me after the game, he talked to Jimmy Garappolo in the locker room and Garappolo told him that the scout team beat Butler with that exact play in practice. So he knew how to read it and he knew what to do. And unlike in practice he did it.

 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/audibles/2015/audibles-line-super-bowl-xlix
 
 
ESPN's Mike Sando is pretty good (other than his ridiculous Raiders hate): 
 

 
Insights into play call: Three things to know about the Seahawks' surprising decision to call a pass play on second-and-goal from the New England 1 with 26 seconds remaining:
• Patriots corner and ex-Seahawk Brandon Browner said he would have bet anything Seattle would feed the ball to Marshawn Lynch in that situation. That is how I felt watching the play. I would have run Lynch into the line simply because Lynch can break tackles better than anyone, and a pass invited the potential for an interception. Browner said he thought the Seahawks out-thought themselves by passing even though the play Seattle selected was, in his view, perfectly suited to beat man coverage and therefore easily could have worked.
• Precedent is on the side of Seattle offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. This was the fifth time since 2001 that an NFL team faced second-and-goal from the 1 with between 20-40 seconds remaining while holding one timeout and trailing by 4-8 points. Two teams ran the ball, gaining zero and minus-2 yards (including once in 2003 when Indianapolis ran Edgerrin James for no gain against New England). The two teams that passed the ball in that situation scored touchdowns. Dallas trailed Kansas City 28-24 during a 2005 game when Drew Bledsoe connected with Dan Campbell for the winning 1-yard score. In 2002, Drew Brees helped San Diego beat San Francisco, 20-17, with a 1-yard scoring pass to Fred McCrary.
• The timeout Seattle burned after completing a 33-yard pass to Jermaine Kearse with 1:06 remaining left them with only one and could have influenced their decision to call a pass. That was clear mismanagement by the offense.

 
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12263481/projecting-next-season-playoff-field-nfl?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Sando_2015PlayoffPicks

 

[singaporesoxfan]

 
 
 
 
That is a nice layout, Sumner.  A & C make a ton of sense, A is the best personnel patch up for New England and C is putting all of the hard work on the other guy. I wonder if the experience of watching the last two Super Bowl losses end on Hail Mary's to Moss & Gronk after the other team scored with less than a minute to play ( the 98 Farve - Elway Super Bowl also ended this way) caused BB to want to live or die with his defense this time. 
 
I really want someone to ask BB this question. I doubt his gives too much of his thought process away, but I would love to hear it. 

Here's what BB said about the TO decision. Seems that he saw that the Seahawks were in a passing formation and thus chose not to use the timeout.

We would have used our timeouts if that had been a running play on the interception. We might have done that, he said. We put in our goal line defense with just corners. It wasnt true goal line because they had three receivers in the game. So we were in our goal line with all eight guys stacked on the line of scrimmage and we were man-to-man on the three receivers. We prepare for that situation as part of our goal line package three corners, two corners, one corner, no corners if they have all tight ends and an offensive line in there. Thats what they were in for that play.

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/02/02/bill-belichick-gets-emotional-after-win-remembers-late-father/

 

[cgori]

Interesting tidbit: 
 
 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/audibles/2015/audibles-line-super-bowl-xlix
 

Stealing this.

 

[lambeau]

I think Singapore figured it out in another thread--BB forced Carroll to throw to stop the clock. (And Wilson, under clock pressure, may have gotten a little tight.) 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

I put this in the other thread, to me this call by Carroll had sound reasoning, but he was badly out coached by the greatest coach in history. This was just an example of Belichick's genius:
 
 
Belichick said it wasn't a goalline defense. Belichick said that when they put three WRs out there, he kept the corners in the game. If the Seahawks had put out TEs, then the Patriots would have sent out a true goal line defense. So it wasn't a true goalline D. He fooled Carroll. It was a situation they had practiced for. It was situational football, that they were prepared for.
 
Belichick outcoached Carroll on that play. Just schooled him. That is not the meme that the media will run with, that is not the script they will run, because they hate Belichick. Just despise him. But between Butler (a backup) being ready from study to know to jump the route after the pick play from Kearse, and Belichick keeping the cornerbacks in the game when they saw that the Seahawks had 3 WRs out there instead of TEs, it was just a masterful, once in a decade call by the best coach in football history. Again, NO ONE will give him the credit for that, but he just schooled Carroll. The media will attack Carroll, but they will ignore what Belichick did. But he absolutely schooled Carroll. And won his fourth Super Bowl.
 
I can just see him walking up to Malcom Butler in a practice down at the goal line, tellling him the situation "three WRs stack on the left, what will they do, what is your responsibility?" The man is the greatest coach in history. 
 
Time for a new paint job on the boat.

 
I came here to post much the same thoughts - great summary.
 
Pete Carroll affirms his OC's pass call because "they're in their goal line D", but what he didn't see was that, yes, we were lined up press on everybody but we also had 3 CBs out there.  We didn't have the jumbo package out there.  You could call a stretch run and all Lynch needs to do is pick some step to cut back towards the goal line - I love our DBs but nobody is stopping Lynch from getting 1 yard there.  Or you call one of your zone-block option-cut runs - odds of getting stuffed in the backfield are miniscule without more LBs on the field to plug gaps.
 
Basically, Carroll mis-read the personnel we had, and that let him dictate the wrong play call for the situation.  It probably would still have worked 90% of the time, or at least fallen incomplete with no harm done.  But in that moment, he was outcoached.  And after the game, he still had no clue about it, insisting (kinda angrily) to anyone who'd listen that the Pats had "their goal-line defense" out there.  But not the one you were expecting, Pete.  Surprise!

 

[NavaHo]

 
Looking at this, I would have been PISSED if they completed the pass for a TD with no flag.  Same play as the NE pick that got called earlier.  

 
The WRs are within a yard of the line of scrimmage so the blocking is legal.

 

[quint]

Grady was worse. Holy shit Grady was worse. Three fucking World Series wins later and Grady was still worse. What a fucking assclown that guy was.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I thought, when he finally broke it down, Pete made a pretty good case for his decision. They had one time out. They want three chances to win the Super Bowl if they need all three of them. With one time out, you have two runs and one pass.

If you run on second down and don't get it, you have to call your last time out. Then you throw, because at that point you can't run with no time outs. And on fourth, you run. So, Carroll's decision was to pass on second down when everyone is expecting the run. That gives him his two runs and a pass but just in a different order. Not sure the pass was the pass you want. But his logic makes some sense the way he explained it.

The little things matter. The fact that the Kearse catch was confusing, you could say, probably won the game. The confusion wound down the play clock and Seattle had to use their second time out. That's probably the game, because with two time outs, Lynch gets three chances to get a yard.

 
Well, you explained it far better than Carol did, because what I got from his statements was what others have said; that he thought the Pats had set up a goal line defense and their offense didn't match up well with our defense.
Speaking of Carroll, what's the deal with him? He sounded like an overgrown kid hopped on adderall. I don't understand how this man can be a leader of men and be successful at his job.

 

Please tell me with 46 seconds left  you were good with putting the season in the hands of the defense for four downs inside the five and giving Brady no chance to come back without the benefit of hindsight?
 

 
I am sure that someone can do the math on this, i.e. what's the expectation of defending 4 downs vs running down the field in 35-40 secs, hitting a field goal and THEN winning in overtime.

I think the expectation on the first scenario is something like 10-15%, but it doesn't seem as if the other scenario is that much better looking. As a basis, let's say you ve got a 50-50% shot of winning in OT but that has to be mutliplied by the times you do march down the field for the field goal.. which should be what? 30% of the time? 20%? 40? So, on the low end it's 0.2x0.5=0.1 and on the high end it's 0.4x0.5=0.2.
 
So, if you think that you can get the field goal more than 35-40% of the time while you re winning the game on defense 15% of the time, then that's when you re giving them the TD.

But either way it's close and I don't know if they have prepared charts for this scenario or they have to make that decision in the heat of the battle which isn't easy to do.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Btw, according to this chart, we had a 25% probability of winning the game after the Kearse catch that went down to 12% with Lynch carried the ball to the 1 yard line.
 
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph
 
25% chance of winning seems too high to let the other team score on purpose. But by the time Lynch goes to the 1 yard line, the clock seems to be too constricting to try to for the FG.

 

[PedraMartina]

I think Singapore figured it out in another thread--BB forced Carroll to throw to stop the clock. (And Wilson, under clock pressure, may have gotten a little tight.) 

This is the key. Letting the clock run there was one of the most cold-blooded calls I have ever seen; it was not just "trusting his defense" -- it was creating the conditions so that passing had much more of a benefit to the Seahawks, diverting them from the otherwise optimal call. Carroll came out and admitted it -- they were going to "waste" the play, stop the clock, and get the personnel they wanted for two more runs, which they would have time to run. If they call their last TO there to get the personnel they want (as all the talking heads are saying they should have done), and the run doesn't make it -- now you are in trouble and may not have time to run a 4th down play, or, at least, you are throwing it in much more obvious throwing circumstances. Even if they ran it with the personnel they had (intending to call the TO immediately if he doesn't get in), your options are more constricted for those last two plays -- and you didn't run it with the personnel you wanted. I can't fault Carroll for wanting to get the most upside from each of the remaining downs -- and BB put him to that decision by giving up the chance of a last-30-seconds-drive-to-tie-it that was pretty tiny anyway. While it was going down my friend and I turned to each other and sort of shrugged in astonishment -- I knew there would be an explanation for why BB wasn't calling the TO, but I had no clue what it would be.  

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I came here to post much the same thoughts - great summary.
 
Pete Carroll affirms his OC's pass call because "they're in their goal line D", but what he didn't see was that, yes, we were lined up press on everybody but we also had 3 CBs out there.  We didn't have the jumbo package out there.  You could call a stretch run and all Lynch needs to do is pick some step to cut back towards the goal line - I love our DBs but nobody is stopping Lynch from getting 1 yard there.  Or you call one of your zone-block option-cut runs - odds of getting stuffed in the backfield are miniscule without more LBs on the field to plug gaps.
 
Basically, Carroll mis-read the personnel we had, and that let him dictate the wrong play call for the situation.  It probably would still have worked 90% of the time, or at least fallen incomplete with no harm done.  But in that moment, he was outcoached.  And after the game, he still had no clue about it, insisting (kinda angrily) to anyone who'd listen that the Pats had "their goal-line defense" out there.  But not the one you were expecting, Pete.  Surprise!

There were 3 CBs in there, but there were 4 DL and 4 LBs to defend the run. Pats were playing with no safeties. 

 

[TheoShmeo]

Grady was worse. Holy shit Grady was worse. Three fucking World Series wins later and Grady was still worse. What a fucking assclown that guy was.

Thank you. Extreme laugh out loud, and a nod in agreement. We should not cheapen Grady's idiocy by comparing every questionable decision to it. And make no mistake, I think Poodle Pete made a terrible decision.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Holy shit. Look at that. 1100 plays, thousands of hours of film, weeks in the weightroom, all that, and that fucking kid just made the play of his life to win the fucking super bowl. Most of the time the best you can hope for is a deflection, but he just caught that thing.

 
@MikeAndMike "At practice the scout team ran that same play & I got beat on it & Bill told me you've got to be on that." - Malcolm Butler on his INT

 

[Dick Drago]

I think that particular pattern is tougher for Wilson due to his height; a taller QB can throw 'downhill' and put the ball lower.

 

[LondonSox]

In the football central chat I said something pretty similar to the OP.
 
By Belichick not calling a TO Seattle had to throw once, assuming they didn't score on the 2nd down. 
If they run on 2nd down the HAVE to throw on 3rd, and it has to be into the endzone.
 
As it was they had 11 personnel vs the goalline pats D, EVERYONE is thinking run it's actually a pretty smart play to throw here, esp knowing you cna throw underneath and if he's stopped short it's not the end of the world.
 
I'm not in love with the play call, you have to fake it and have some disguise (I don't think they did but I can't find a clip of it I can watch here right now) but frankly the play was just a great one by Butler. 
 
I like he didn't go with what everyone was thinking, and given Wilson's turnover history (which is great) you risk it, esp knowing if he doesn't see it he could throw it away or potentially scramble anyway. The look is pretty good, I think Wilson should have thrown it behind him more, so Butler couldn't get there, but I think end of the day the play CALL isn't bad, the credit should go to the Pats coaching for Butler clearly seeing the pay and the route, which means he was prepped and ready for it, and then he performed. I don't think it's an error for Carroll. IF that's a TD everyone is blowing him for the brave unexpected call. The Pats D just did a GREAT job defending a pass while expecting the run. Good for them. Great call Belichick for not taking the TO, which surprised (IMO) Seattle.

 

[soxfan121]

While Wilson didn't actually puke on his shoes (hi Donovan!), the Seahawks were clearly rattled and made multiple bad decisions on that drive; the two wasted timeouts being top of the list. 
 
BB decided, in the moment, to let the "moment" happen. And to see what Wilson did with it. It turned out to be the right call. It easily could have gone the other way.