Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum
- Thread starter bankshot1
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Yahoo!'s Passan has a column up saying the Yankees have money to spend on three big free agents and still remain under the $189 million threshold. They are counting Cano as one of the three:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/fiscally-responsible--yankees-looking-to-add-three-major-free-agents-234213777.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/fiscally-responsible--yankees-looking-to-add-three-major-free-agents-234213777.html
They don't need three SPs, after CC/Nova, they have Phelps/Warren/Pineda/Nuno, so they need one or two probably. As for setup guys, they have Betances and maybe Mark Montgomery in house.
I also doubt they will spend money to upgrade catcher, although if they do, letting Russell Martin walk last year will look even more idiotic (and it looked pretty idiotic from day one).
I also doubt they will spend money to upgrade catcher, although if they do, letting Russell Martin walk last year will look even more idiotic (and it looked pretty idiotic from day one).
LostinNJ said:
And remember that despite having 4 outfielders already (Ichiro, Wells, Soriano and Gardner) they keep talking about either resigning Granderson or pursuing another outfield bat like Choo or Beltran, partly because they can't expact much offense from either Ichiro or Wells going forward (and/or they could use Soriano/Wells as DHs), so that is another need/expense....
I'm pretty sure I'm going to be pissed if NY spends a ton of money on anyone besides Cano or Tanaka this offseason, I think there are going to be a lot of instantly bad contracts signed and I'd prefer that NY not add to their current list.
This is the kind of deal I am hoping for, Brendan Ryan on short money:
http://nypost.com/2013/11/13/yankees-close-to-re-signing-brendan-ryan/
NY's not going to contend in 2014 no matter what, unless there are multiple head-on plane crashes involving the other four AL East teams. Don't try to fool the fans by spending a lot of money on bloated deals, that goodwill will dissipate once they see the team play anyway.
This is the kind of deal I am hoping for, Brendan Ryan on short money:
http://nypost.com/2013/11/13/yankees-close-to-re-signing-brendan-ryan/
NY's not going to contend in 2014 no matter what, unless there are multiple head-on plane crashes involving the other four AL East teams. Don't try to fool the fans by spending a lot of money on bloated deals, that goodwill will dissipate once they see the team play anyway.
Abbey, you and Evil Empire would be welcomed into the warm arms of RedSox fandom. Wingack, Crow216 and Jersey Joe, not.
Fans can forgive a bad team if they perceive there was an effort to win. When a 3 billion dollar organization with the top revenues in all of MLB by far and a new stadium financed at taxpayer expense simply packs it in, there shoud be outrage. Look forward to the riots if anyone even bothers to show up next year..
If they are going to lose Cano I like Ryan at 2B. Save the 25 million AAV for Cano and use it to plug holes in RF (yes, Ichiro/Wells are big holes, maybe even black holes) and C.
They also have to address the SS/3B situation. Not much hope they have the wisdom to do what is needed there so will spare my keyboard by not repeating it. They will probably also keep the DH spot free for Jeter when he needs rest every other day so he will kill them at 2 positions, I guess thats why he got a raise.
Not a big believer in Tanaka, but the Yankees can easily blow 70 million on the posting fee despite his declining K rate. If it does not work out at least they saved a few million on tax and collected some rebates that they can save to spend on the next posting fee to save a few more bucks on the luxury tax.
If they are going to lose Cano I like Ryan at 2B. Save the 25 million AAV for Cano and use it to plug holes in RF (yes, Ichiro/Wells are big holes, maybe even black holes) and C.
They also have to address the SS/3B situation. Not much hope they have the wisdom to do what is needed there so will spare my keyboard by not repeating it. They will probably also keep the DH spot free for Jeter when he needs rest every other day so he will kill them at 2 positions, I guess thats why he got a raise.
Not a big believer in Tanaka, but the Yankees can easily blow 70 million on the posting fee despite his declining K rate. If it does not work out at least they saved a few million on tax and collected some rebates that they can save to spend on the next posting fee to save a few more bucks on the luxury tax.
Dummy Hoy said:
Phelps was good for a while last year, but it's not like NY is going to be competitive next year no matter what they do. I sincerely believe it's impossible, so at least see if any of those guys can actually help going forward. The previous wave of NY prospects included Ian Kennedy and Zach McAllister, neither of whom were given much of a chance in NY and both of whom blossomed elsewhere, so maybe it's time to give the current group of prospects more of a chance.
It's a good point regarding McAllister and Kennedy, although I think the point is they did it elsewhere. Not a lot of cats can handle the AL East.
Phelps was good for stretches last season, he's probably the best bet. Your other point is probably the correct one and that the Yankees will have trouble contending regardless.
Phelps was good for stretches last season, he's probably the best bet. Your other point is probably the correct one and that the Yankees will have trouble contending regardless.
Nova looked like a bust too until he got another chance early last year and then got on a roll. If a spot hadn't opened up for him midseason, he'd be on my list above and we'd be just as dubious about him (rightly so).
It's definitely true that the AL East is the toughest division to break in as a SP, but you still have to keep trying guys when you can, especially in a down year like this one will almost certainly be.
It's definitely true that the AL East is the toughest division to break in as a SP, but you still have to keep trying guys when you can, especially in a down year like this one will almost certainly be.
Pineda's health is obviously a concern, but it wasn't too long ago that we were all bitching and moaning about the Yankees landing him (amusingly enough, I got through it by being thankful that they had to give up Montero... funny how trades work, sometimes).
Pineda is the kind of guy you give a shot to, until he proves he's irrevocably broken.
Pineda is the kind of guy you give a shot to, until he proves he's irrevocably broken.
Of course there's interest in Cano-- but not for $310M over 10 years. If memory serves, the Dodgers said they weren't interested. So, what other ownership is going to pay anything close to that kind of money? Texas maybe, but that's about it.
There may be a small handful of players who you may consider giving a 10 year deal, $310m, or a $31m AAV. Cano is not one of them. His contract demands are truly insane.
glennhoffmania said:
Yeah, I don't see it. I don't think he'd find a market at 10/250. Or if you want shorter years more money, I don't see anyone looking to Bid 7/200 for him
He's a darn good ballplayer, but 6-7 years in the 22-26 million range seems to be where he should fit
If a team goes beyond this they have learned nothing from all the silly Mega Contracts offered and signed over the last few yearsBigMike said:
Nothing
His crazy demands are clearly just a negotiation ploy. They probably would like to split the difference with the Yankees' offer and end up around 10/240.
To be honest, though, I think the Yankees would be stupid to give him even that much. Its pretty clear that at some point - maybe around the $200M line - they're probably just bidding against themselves. So I'd hold firm at 7/160, let the market for Cano reveal itself, and then go up a bit higher afterwards.
To be honest, though, I think the Yankees would be stupid to give him even that much. Its pretty clear that at some point - maybe around the $200M line - they're probably just bidding against themselves. So I'd hold firm at 7/160, let the market for Cano reveal itself, and then go up a bit higher afterwards.
Nobody signs talented ball players to contracts that are for too many years at too much money like the Yankees.
Get it done, Cash.
Get it done, Cash.
The arrangement between Cano and Roc Nation Sports to represent a high profile athlete and expand his brand doesn't really work if he's playing in Seattle or Anaheim.
This is funny - a ridiculously obvious negotiating ploy. http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=9999407&city=newyork&src=desktop
I know that they have non-baseball financial issues, but a team like the Mets having an $85m payroll is ridiculous.
Well, the Madoff thing cost Wilpon $160M plus the Mets have been losing money like crazy (if the NY Times is to be believed). So I don't see the Mets getting into the Cano bidding.
Brickowski said:
I understand the reasons why. My point was that they've been so mismanaged and it's nuts to think that a team in the largest market would have a payroll in that range.
Once you start looking at these potential teams more closely, however, you see that very few are plausible landing spots. The MLBTR story seems to acknowledge this without thinking through the ramifications.Hoplite said:
Dodgers - Just signed Guerrero at 4/28 to play 2B.
Angels - Already have too many megacontracts
Tigers - See above, plus may need to extend Scherzer.
Rangers - Already dealing with a middle infield logjam.
Mets - No money, no chance.
Nationals - Maybe, but already have some huge contracts for a team with a $110M payroll and have to deal with Zimmerman, Strasburg, and Harper down the line.
Mariners - Maybe, but they have an $84M payroll and their ownership situation is in flux, not a great time for the biggest contractual commitment in team history.
Cubs - Could be a dark horse.
I just don't see a legion of other suitors willing to offer 8/200 to Cano, let alone 9/234.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
You only need one big one, though.
In a purely-efficient auction, the bidding theoretically stops at the maximum price the second-highest bidder is willing to pay, plus one penny, or something like that. The number of third- and fourth-place bidders is irrelevant, the price is set entirely between the top two bidders.
Of course, when the Yankees are involved, the price tends to reach equilibrium at whatever the second bidder would have paid, plus ~$35M and two years.
Yea, I really doubt anyone in Baseball values Cano as a $200MM+ player. The majority of his production is tied into his power. He has never stolen more than 8 bases a year and isn't regarded as a great baserunner. His defense is vastly overrated but he has a strong and accurate arm so maybe he can play 3B one day. And I have never heard of his clubhouse status so you can't even tack on 'intangibles' to his resume. The Yankees have it right with their offer of 7yr/$160MM. I wouldn't even come up from that. If he gets a better deal, thank him for his years of service and move on. At some point you have to take make a tough decision and take back control over your club and start being more fiscally sound.
Yea, I really doubt anyone in Baseball values Cano as a $200MM+ player. The majority of his production is tied into his power. He has never stolen more than 8 bases a year and isn't regarded as a great baserunner. His defense is vastly overrated but he has a strong and accurate arm so maybe he can play 3B one day. And I have never heard of his clubhouse status so you can't even tack on 'intangibles' to his resume. The Yankees have it right with their offer of 7yr/$160MM. I wouldn't even come up from that. If he gets a better deal, thank him for his years of service and move on. At some point you have to take make a tough decision and take back control over your club and start being more fiscally sound.
Isn't Cano much more valuable as a 3B? I agree his glove is nothing to write home about but the guy has a gun.
It's not likely but I've sometimes wondered if the Sox have quietly kicked the tires on Cano with the idea of a move to third.
Isn't Cano much more valuable as a 3B? I agree his glove is nothing to write home about but the guy has a gun.
It's not likely but I've sometimes wondered if the Sox have quietly kicked the tires on Cano with the idea of a move to third.
Tyler Kepner opines today that the MFY should not re-sign Cano, citing (1) the wasted money during the later years of a 7- or 10-year deal and (2) the likelihood that Cano's going to get distracted from baseball in an effort to raise his national profile.
Most of that is true and was covered here months ago, but I'd argue with this part:
"If they drop out of the bidding for Cano, they can move aggressively in a free-agent class with several appealing options."
Everyone is going to be overpriced this winter, even if they come much cheaper than Cano. There's always been a good argument for letting Cano go (especially given his current absurd demands), but rushing to spend that money elsewhere is an equally bad idea IMO.
"If they drop out of the bidding for Cano, they can move aggressively in a free-agent class with several appealing options."
Everyone is going to be overpriced this winter, even if they come much cheaper than Cano. There's always been a good argument for letting Cano go (especially given his current absurd demands), but rushing to spend that money elsewhere is an equally bad idea IMO.
I don't know, I think if there's one player to make just a goofy bid on (if you have the money to do it), it might just be Robinson Cano. I could see the Yankees holding firm on the 160 M over 7 years though as short of going on a huge spending spree this winter, they're unlikely to be a real threat in AL East for a few years, IMO. Then again, we're talking about the Yankees; I might be forgetting someone here, but when has a HoF homegrown talent gotten away from them? This is pretty uncharted territory.
I also think the Jay Z angle might be a tad underplayed here. I mean, you don't rap about stealing/acquiring a client from the sport's biggest super agent and then settle for ~50% of your initial demands. I just don't see that happening. Cano has been a model of consistency in terms of performance, production, and durability (has missed 7 games in 7 years) since he was brought up in 2005. I suspect some team will pay a premium for that. I also don't believe for a second that the Dodgers are out of the sweepstakes and I think Cano's contact will be a lot closer to the 310/10 demands than most people think.
I also think the Jay Z angle might be a tad underplayed here. I mean, you don't rap about stealing/acquiring a client from the sport's biggest super agent and then settle for ~50% of your initial demands. I just don't see that happening. Cano has been a model of consistency in terms of performance, production, and durability (has missed 7 games in 7 years) since he was brought up in 2005. I suspect some team will pay a premium for that. I also don't believe for a second that the Dodgers are out of the sweepstakes and I think Cano's contact will be a lot closer to the 310/10 demands than most people think.
jon abbey said:
The Yankees would be wise to listen to this.
Superstar mega-contracts can occasionally push a good team over the top for a couple years, but they are not the way to build the core of a roster, because variance. You lose the ability to make trades, to bring up younger talent, to absorb salary-dump firesales, etc. You carve your roster in stone for ten years, and you end up with an infield that looks like HOF statues: they are shiny and recognizable, and they don't move.
yep said:
JA is right, of course.
The problem is that the Yankee business model was built on the assumption that lots of people will pay ridiculous ticket prices, purchase lots of expensive food and beer and walk out with lots of expensive merchandise. That doesn't happen without a bunch of superstars in the lineup, which is one of the reasons they will end up either signing Cano or making a splash elsewhere in the market.
My guess is that Cano will be back for a lot less than he wants and a lot more than he should get. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 years and $175 - $200 million.
Average Reds said:
I can't see Cano and his camp coming down from 300m+ to 175 - 200m, even over 8 years. We are talking about the Yankees here. I think we'll see something like 8-10 years at around 220-240m... Stupid crazy money (and years), but that's my gut.
NY isn't going to go above $200M, maybe even $180M. They just aren't. Feel free to throw these words in my face if I'm wrong, but I won't be. They'll let him walk if he gets an offer up there and he wants to take it.
Actually I think NY is in good shape for this season in this area: they've got Jeter, Soriano (a huge fan fave from his first time around in NY), Ichiro (terrible player, will always sell tickets), and Teixeira. They'll need help in this area in 2015 when 2-3 of those guys will be gone, but I think they're fine there this season.
And which FAs actually fit this bill anyway? No one is going to buy a ticket to the Yankees to see Brian McCann.
Average Reds said:
Actually I think NY is in good shape for this season in this area: they've got Jeter, Soriano (a huge fan fave from his first time around in NY), Ichiro (terrible player, will always sell tickets), and Teixeira. They'll need help in this area in 2015 when 2-3 of those guys will be gone, but I think they're fine there this season.
And which FAs actually fit this bill anyway? No one is going to buy a ticket to the Yankees to see Brian McCann.
Jaylach said:
It takes two to tango. Who else would offer anything close to give Cano leverage? Per Jayson Stark, the Yankees have offered 7 years, $168 million. Not sure who else can really afford that (or more) to make the Yankees move off their number.
Teams don't always announce their intentions to go after a player. With the flood of money from RSN's and the additional 25 million each team gets from national TV contracts, and with some large market teams receiving fewer revenue sharing dollars (requiring them to be more self sufficient and generate their own revenues by fielding competitive teams), any team with a hole at 2B (or even those who don't, Rangers could trade Profar for pitching and be in on Cano) could be in play. Just because we can't see who is likely to be in on Cano does not mean there are not teams preparing to make a splash by signing him.
If the Yankees want to compete in 2014 they probably need to sign Cano, but he would not be enough. McCann is a good first step, Cano a necessary #X step which probably won't be taken until January, and lots of steps needed between these 2 are needed.
Right about now alarm bells are probably going off in the FO with season ticket sales/renewal presumably down and revenue projections providing a reality check, and I imagine YES executives are probably staging a sit in at Hank and Hals office jeering cheap, cheap, cheap everytime they pass by. So I would not be surprised if the Yankees blow well past 200 million, might even hit 220. So they pay 15 million in tax and lose the same in rebates, but they boost attendance and ratings (and overall revenues). But then again, I never understood how they could even still be talking about 189 as a goal in the aftermath of the 2013 disaster. So who knows.
I don't think most fans attend games so much over an individual player as they do the team. Sure, there are some fans who may come out just for Jeter or Ichiro, but not enough. If the team is good or expected to be, fans come. If the team stinks, even Ted Williams won't bring enough of them in (ask the Red Sox). In 2013 attendance was down about 400K from 2009. Since attendance is somewhat of a lagging indicator, the drop in 2014 should be a doozy unless the Yankees have a great offseason and give fans some hope for 2014.
If the Yankees want to compete in 2014 they probably need to sign Cano, but he would not be enough. McCann is a good first step, Cano a necessary #X step which probably won't be taken until January, and lots of steps needed between these 2 are needed.
Right about now alarm bells are probably going off in the FO with season ticket sales/renewal presumably down and revenue projections providing a reality check, and I imagine YES executives are probably staging a sit in at Hank and Hals office jeering cheap, cheap, cheap everytime they pass by. So I would not be surprised if the Yankees blow well past 200 million, might even hit 220. So they pay 15 million in tax and lose the same in rebates, but they boost attendance and ratings (and overall revenues). But then again, I never understood how they could even still be talking about 189 as a goal in the aftermath of the 2013 disaster. So who knows.
I don't think most fans attend games so much over an individual player as they do the team. Sure, there are some fans who may come out just for Jeter or Ichiro, but not enough. If the team is good or expected to be, fans come. If the team stinks, even Ted Williams won't bring enough of them in (ask the Red Sox). In 2013 attendance was down about 400K from 2009. Since attendance is somewhat of a lagging indicator, the drop in 2014 should be a doozy unless the Yankees have a great offseason and give fans some hope for 2014.
Isn't Cano much more valuable as a 3B? I agree his glove is nothing to write home about but the guy has a gun.
It's not likely but I've sometimes wondered if the Sox have quietly kicked the tires on Cano with the idea of a move to third.
I've been wondering something similar: could they move Cano to 1B with a plan to move him to DH down the road? We know that he's tight with Ortiz.
It's not likely but I've sometimes wondered if the Sox have quietly kicked the tires on Cano with the idea of a move to third.
I've been wondering something similar: could they move Cano to 1B with a plan to move him to DH down the road? We know that he's tight with Ortiz.
The problem with this is you are paying a premium for an elite bat at a position where elite bats are rare. And then moving him to a position where elite bats (or at least very good ones) are far less rare.Saints Rest said:
Hoplite said:
That may be, but historically not many teams have expressed any desire to want top pay a single player $20+ mil/year (nevermind 7 years or longer for a 31 year old). Not to say it wouldn't happen, but FO's seem to be getting smarter as they realize that committing a significant amount of their payroll to a single player doesn't seem conducive to fielding a contending team.