Celtics 16/17 Roster and Assets

LondonSox · Jun 24, 2016

So not attempting to high jack and if we want to split it maybe that's better but I thought pretty related.

As I'm in London I have pretty limited live games, and the games I can watch are limited to spare time and not just the Celtics, but I always pay attention because of you guys and the forums.

Anyway, I know the coaching and intangible type stuff is great. Esp the coaching.
I see a lot of good to great defensive players and good hard workers. Bitch of a team to play I imagine.

But I don't see a lot of star talent, on offense. IT yes but not sure you could or would want to lean on him as the primary guy in a playoff series.

It looks like a team that is going to be at or near a home playoff series. Give or take a bit of luck on injuries competition etc. In the east at least.

What are you guys expecting from this year?

Sprowl · Jun 24, 2016

Barring a big free agent signing (which seems unlikely), I see a team treading water around 48 wins, unless Thomas gets injured, in which case they slide back to 42 wins. The team has waves of athletic defenders, although few shotblockers. Brown is just Crowder lite for next year, so aside from depth at wing, it's hard to see him making a big difference.

The BKN 2017 swap and the BKN 2018 pick are still the team's only clear path to the next level.

Koufax · Jun 24, 2016

They will sign a free agent who is big. Whether it is a big signing or not remains to be seen. What about Hassan Whiteside?

zenter · Jul 3, 2016

sox311 said:
When Isaiah become a Free Agent, if we offer him the max or whatever we offer him, how will that affect the salary cap? If we already have the player we can give him whatever we want without it going against the cap number?

Basically yes, as long as they have a sufficient number of "Bird years" (typically accrued by having 3 years on one contract, but no matter what, it means not switching teams via free agency). This allowance are called Bird rights.

That is how I have read some descriptions of it. So, then why can't Miami offer Wade the max and not worry about how that will work with giving Whiteside the max as well as another player?

Whiteside's contract was 2 years, so Miami couldn't sign him using Bird rights. In order to sign him, they needed to renounce all rights they had to players - Wade included - to clear cap space reserved for these unsigned Bird players (called "cap holds").

By renouncing Wade's Bird rights, Miami cannot go over cap to sign him - they have to sign him under cap or using an over-cap exception.

Note: If I understand correctly, if Wade comes back to Miami on a 1 year deal, his Bird years/rights reattach and he can be signed over cap next summer.

Cellar-Door · Jul 3, 2016

sox311 said:
Thanks Zenter, I have had a working knowledge of Bird rights, but never that in depth. Thanks again.

Does it work this way with RFAs? Like Sully, or say, Harry Barnes in GS?

If players like Jae or Avery fulfill their contact we can give them Evan Turner money, or whatever the market rate is at that time and make a play for other players available. Time for James Young to blow up at summer league so we can get something for a 2021 second round draft pick from the Grizzlies or someone close to that value of draft pick.

Hypothetically yes.
Basically players have a cap hold when their contract ends, that takes up cap room. If you have room you can sign players into that room, then you can go over the cap to re-sign the guys you have.
So for example in 2018 Bradley and IT are free agents, (not RFA) with a cap hold of a combined 22.6M, so if we were under the cap including that 22.6M, we could go outside the organization for players up to the cap, then extend Bradley and IT.

The actual likelihood of that is slim, even now our cap in salaries and holds for 2018 is 101.4M against a projected 105M cap. If anything we're likely losing players that year (Smart is also a FA, and that doesn't include the salary of Brown or either Olynyk or his replacement).

It's pretty rare that a team is both good and has cap room to use before re-signing. This year is an exception because of the massive cap jump.

zenter · Jul 3, 2016

sox311 said:
Does it work this way with RFAs? Like Sully, or say, Harry Barnes in GS?

Basically yes. Time accrued on rookie contracts works the same way. The only difference with RFAs is drafting team's right to counter. If the Cs need to renounce Sullinger to sign someone else, though, they lose that right.

Of the main Celtics FAs this summer, only Turner and Johnson were not Bird, and Turner was eligible for Early Bird but nobody will get Early Bird (slight increase) with the new cap.

If players like Jae or Avery fulfill their contact we can give them Evan Turner money, or whatever the market rate is at that time and make a play for other players available.

Yes, again assuming no renunciation is needed to get those other players.

Teams submit new deals in a precise order to the league office. So, where possible, extensions go last because they'll generally be over cap.

EDIT: CD got the real details I didn't, which mean theoretically it's possible, but not in reality.

Cellar-Door · Jul 3, 2016

zenter said:
Of the main Celtics FAs this summer, only Turner and Johnson were not Bird, and Turner was eligible for Early Bird but nobody will get Early Bird (slight increase) with the new cap.

Amazingly, someone already has. It's why the Marvin Williams deal happened like it did. He took 6-10M less so they could Early Bird it.

zenter · Jul 3, 2016

Cellar-Door said:
Amazingly, someone already has. It's why the Marvin Williams deal happened like it did. He took 6-10M less so they could Early Bird it.

Wow. I hate Jordan-as-owner (the most anti-player owner in the last negotiations), but damn his FO has killed the last week for contracts.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 3, 2016

This seems like as good a place to put this but not terribly complimentary article on James Young here: http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2016/07/02/full-court-press-james-young-has-another-chance-to-impress-at-summer-league-guerschon-yabusele-is-a-big-dancing-bear/

Also, if Mozgov, who had a RPM of -4.24 and wins of -0.91 (in 76 games) is worth 4/$65M, what is Zeller (RPM -2.69 with wins of +0.21
in 60 games) worth?

Jeff Van GULLY · Jul 3, 2016

Sullinger should presumably be gone with Horford coming on board.

It will be interesting to see if the Celtics and David Falk can finagle a sign-and-trade so the Celtics get some sort of asset back.

Sprowl · Jul 4, 2016

2016 AD (After Durant):

So now the Celtics will presumably pick up the options on Johnson and Jerebko, and see if they can extract some sign-and-trade considerations for Sullinger. The team also needs to worry about who can step forward as secondary playmaker, now that Evan Turner is off to Portland for 70 million dollars.

bosockboy · Jul 4, 2016

Do trades for Middleton and other scorers get revisited now?

TheRooster · Jul 4, 2016

I think they do, but not out of desperation.

jp9183 · Jul 4, 2016

I think they roll with what they have and try and do some one-year overpays with whats left. You hope Jaylen Brown becomes a star and the Nets picks blossum. I think i'm the only one that feels the moves the Nets made put them more in the 7-15 range though i think.

JakeRae · Jul 4, 2016

At this point, if I am Ainge, I'm on the phone with GSW seeing what I can get if I take Bogut off their hands. Bogut is a great roster fit and an expiring, which is ideal in setting up another run at marquee free agents in a year. The cap mechanics get a little tricky as I think we would need to let Jerebko go. My calculations show we'd need an extra $2.5 million, roughly, to take on Bogut. With Brown on the roster and needing playing time, I'd be happy to let Jerebko go to add Bogut.

Edit: the above assume we renounce cap holds on Sully, Zeller, and Datome. If we're letting Jerebko go, there is no need to renounce the Datome cap hold, for whatever that is worth.

Jed Zeppelin · Jul 4, 2016

jp9183 said:
I think they roll with what they have and try and do some one-year overpays with whats left. You hope Jaylen Brown becomes a star and the Nets picks blossum. I think i'm the only one that feels the moves the Nets made put them more in the 7-15 range though i think.

Who exactly do the Nets pass to get there?

dylanmarsh · Jul 4, 2016

JakeRae said:
At this point, if I am Ainge, I'm on the phone with GSW seeing what I can get if I take Bogut off their hands. Bogut is a great roster fit and an expiring, which is ideal in setting up another run at marquee free agents in a year. The cap mechanics get a little tricky as I think we would need to let Jerebko go. My calculations show we'd need an extra $2.5 million, roughly, to take on Bogut. With Brown on the roster and needing playing time, I'd be happy to let Jerebko go to add Bogut.

Edit: the above assume we renounce cap holds on Sully, Zeller, and Datome. If we're letting Jerebko go, there is no need to renounce the Datome cap hold, for whatever that is worth.

Renouncing Zeller and Turner gets you there.

BaseballJones · Jul 4, 2016

G - Thomas, Smart, Rozier, Bradley, Young, Hunter, Holland, Jackson
F - Crowder, Jerebko, Mickey, Olynyk, Brown, Yabusele, Bentil, Nader
C - Johnson, Horford, Nizic

2017
- Boston's first rounder
- Brooklyn's first rounder
- Boston's second rounder
- LAC's second rounder
- Minnesota's second rounder

2018
- Boston's first rounder
- Brooklyn's first rounder

2019
- Boston's first rounder
- LAC's first rounder (protected)
- Memphis' first rounder (protected)
- Boston's second rounder
- Detroit's second rounder

No idea how the opening-day 2016 roster looks, but that's not a bad team right there, with tons of ammo to build in the future.

JakeRae · Jul 4, 2016

dylanmarsh said:
Renouncing Zeller and Turner gets you there.

No, it doesn't. The Celtics are at $84 million and change between the cap holds for their 1st round picks, their active contracts, and the Johnson and Jerebko options. That's $10 million in cap space.

BigSoxFan · Jul 4, 2016

2017 is a swap. We only get Brooklyn's 1st and not our own.

E5 Yaz · Jul 4, 2016

BaseballJones said:
2017
- Boston's first rounder
- Brooklyn's first rounder

Isn't this a swap, and not both?

BaseballJones · Jul 4, 2016

BigSoxFan said:
2017 is a swap. We only get Brooklyn's 1st and not our own.

E5 Yaz said:
Isn't this a swap, and not both?

You guys are right. My bad. I didn't see the outgoing first rounder as an outgoing because this site (http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed) didn't put in in the right hand column, but had it in parenthesis on the incoming column.

BigSoxFan · Jul 4, 2016

Doesn't change the overall point of your post though. Celtics clearly have a lot to work with. Key thing now is figuring out when to cash in the chips. At this point, all we can hope for is 2 miserable years for the Nets and some lottery luck.

dylanmarsh · Jul 4, 2016

JakeRae said:
No, it doesn't. The Celtics are at $84 million and change between the cap holds for their 1st round picks, their active contracts, and the Johnson and Jerebko options. That's $10 million in cap space.

I used the RealGM trade machine that permits you to renounce players. The full allotment of players includes all of the draft pick holds and remaining free agent cap holds.

Edit: it looks like RealGM doesn't operate correctly with maneuvering contracts for trades.

bosockboy · Jul 4, 2016

Pardon my ignorance on this, but is the mid level exception still a thing? Don't hear it mentioned much. If so, do we have one available?

Grin&MartyBarret · Jul 4, 2016

bosockboy said:
Pardon my ignorance on this, but is the mid level exception still a thing? Don't hear it mentioned much. If so, do we have one available?

Only comes into play when teams are above the cap. And so far are right now, that it just hasn't played a large role in the offseason thus far.

DJnVa · Jul 4, 2016

jp9183 said:
. I think i'm the only one that feels the moves the Nets made put them more in the 7-15 range though i think.

Yeah. I'd say it's more likely they win between 7-15 games than pass about 10 teams in the standings.

jp9183 · Jul 4, 2016

Zaza Pachulia is someone i kind of hope they take a look at.

Sprowl · Jul 4, 2016

jp9183 said:
Zaza Pachulia is someone i kind of hope they take a look at.

The Celtics could corner the market on Zz. Pachulia could teach Ante some nifty elbow tricks.

ishmael · Jul 4, 2016

DrewDawg said:
Yeah. I'd say it's more likely they win between 7-15 games then pass about 10 teams in the standings.

Agreed. All of the worst teams from last year have made moves to get better and most of them have better young talent than the Nets:
Philly (added major talent, still very young)
LAL (added some decent veteran FAs + Ingram)
BKLYN (added mediocre FA talent - Thad Young)
PHX (added Jared Dudley)
Minn (added a solid backup big, Dunn)
NO (added mediocre FA talent + Buddy - Ryan Anderson)
NYK (added a bunch of over the hill free agents - Affalo)

Jed Zeppelin · Jul 4, 2016

To that I would add that the Nets are also the bottomfeeder most likely to become even less talented during the season with Lopez becoming a relative bargain while being relatively useless to a total rebuild.

I'd be shocked if Marks isn't testing his market throughout the season to see who will offer a couple 1sts and/or young talent.

nighthob · Jul 4, 2016

Sprowl said:
2016 AD (After Durant):

So now the Celtics will presumably pick up the options on Johnson and Jerebko, and see if they can extract some sign-and-trade considerations for Sullinger. The team also needs to worry about who can step forward as secondary playmaker, now that Evan Turner is off to Portland for 70 million dollars.

Too bad they can't work out a sign & trade for a conditional #2 just to generate a TPE for use later this year. It'd come in handy when the Thunder put Westbrook on the market.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 5, 2016

sox311 said:
In a perfect world that will be Smart or Rozier. It can very well happen. Just too bad Turnee was four inches taller than both of them.

Article on Rozier's off-season work here: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/summer-post-070416-offseason-work-already-paying-off-for-terry-rozier. Good to know he was working with a shooting coach; his shot looked good last night.

amfox1 · Jul 6, 2016

Jared Sullinger ‏@Jared_Sully0 8m8 minutes ago
Change is coming

dabombdig · Jul 6, 2016

Sullinger actually had a good season last year. In fact he started out great and then tailed off a bit towards the end of the regular season (as did much of the team). His shot selection was maddening at times, but his rebounding and offensive touch was the best amongst the bigs. His piss poor showing in the post-season really hurt his market, but depending on the price a team out there could be getting a steal. The C's will need to find a replacement that can make up for his rebounding on both ends of the court.

JakeRae · Jul 6, 2016

dabombdig said:
Sullinger actually had a good season last year. In fact he started out great and then tailed off a bit towards the end of the regular season (as did much of the team). His shot selection was maddening at times, but his rebounding and offensive touch was the best amongst the bigs. His piss poor showing in the post-season really hurt his market, but depending on the price a team out there could be getting a steal. The C's will need to find a replacement that can make up for his rebounding on both ends of the court.

I'm pretty sure his replacement is Horford. He's not quite the rebounder, but he's a much better overall player. Turner losing minutes to Rozier should make up for most of the remaining rebounding gap.

dabombdig · Jul 6, 2016

JakeRae said:
I'm pretty sure his replacement is Horford. He's not quite the rebounder, but he's a much better overall player. Turner losing minutes to Rozier should make up for most of the remaining rebounding gap.

Without a doubt. Just meant in terms of interior rebounding. Outside of Horford (who I don't believe is as good a rebounder as Sullinger) the C's are quite weak in that area. Not sure who on the current roster fills that void.

amfox1 · Jul 6, 2016

Adam Himmelsbach ‏@AdamHimmelsbach 10m10 minutes ago
Still sounding very much like the Celtics plan to guarantee Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko for next season.

Sprowl · Jul 6, 2016

amfox1 said:
Adam Himmelsbach ‏@AdamHimmelsbach 10m10 minutes ago
Still sounding very much like the Celtics plan to guarantee Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko for next season.

Certainly they should -- at the very least, Johnson and Jerebko will be trading chips on contracts that are very reasonable by 2017 standards.

Auger34 · Jul 6, 2016

Jed Zeppelin said:
Who exactly do the Nets pass to get there?

Yeah, I would love to hear this as well.

In the East, who is worse than BKN? Maybe the Heat if they lose Wade and Bosh isn't medically cleared? At this point, both the Knicks and Sixers are ahead of them. In the West, I guess it could be argued that the Suns, Lakers and maybe the Kings are worse..

I don't know looking over the teams and rosters again it seems pretty clear that the Nets are the worst team and have the least amount of talent on their roster in the NBA. If Lopez's feet don't hold up or he gets traded that team is a complete abomination

Cellar-Door · Jul 6, 2016

tbb345 said:
Yeah, I would love to hear this as well.

In the East, who is worse than BKN? Maybe the Heat if they lose Wade and Bosh isn't medically cleared? At this point, both the Knicks and Sixers are ahead of them. In the West, I guess it could be argued that the Suns, Lakers and maybe the Kings are worse..

I don't know looking over the teams and rosters again it seems pretty clear that the Nets are the worst team and have the least amount of talent on their roster in the NBA. If Lopez's feet don't hold up or he gets traded that team is a complete abomination

Philly may well be really bad again this year, much better long term team than BKN, but short term there are a lot of questions about how that talent translates in terms of wins/losses. A lot of reliance on rookies (almost always garbage) and young guys who haven't proven much.
Remember that's a team that won 10 games last year to BKN's 21. Sure they should be better, but it's still probably pretty garbage.

LondonSox · Jul 6, 2016

Yeah the sixers have a bit of a potential dumpster fire defensively. They will be fun to watch but probably brutal as they try rotations.
I think they'll be better than the nets but they are the wolves last year but more players of interest but even less experienced. I would not expect much out of them yet. I'd expect them to struggle early and late (late as players get worn down in a long season).

But the nets look pretty damn bad.
Who else looks bad? The suns? Lakers still look a mess. The kings esp if cousins is moved or gives up. They have every incentive not to tank though given the swap. Lakers need to tank or try given the top 3 protection.
The heat is interesting they could be rough too. Anyone else?

Auger34 · Jul 6, 2016

LondonSox said:
Yeah the sixers have a bit of a potential dumpster fire defensively. They will be fun to watch but probably brutal as they try rotations.
I think they'll be better than the nets but they are the wolves last year but more players of interest but even less experienced. I would not expect much out of them yet. I'd expect them to struggle early and late (late as players get worn down in a long season).

But the nets look pretty damn bad.
Who else looks bad? The suns? Lakers still look a mess. The kings esp if cousins is moved or gives up. They have every incentive not to tank though given the swap. Lakers need to tank or try given the top 3 protection.
The heat is interesting they could be rough too. Anyone else?

Only possible team to add to that would be the Pelicans but they suffered about as bad of injury luck as you can possibly have last year and still won more games than the Nets (who without question are worse this year with the loss of Thad Young.)
In terms of NBA talent for next year, the only competition is really the Sixers and I think with more of an emphasis on winning now, Simmons being the PG and Saric+Embiid being available they should be better than the Nets

Jed Zeppelin · Jul 6, 2016

And that's all assuming they complete the projected add of Tyler Johnson and, hypothetically, Allen Crabbe. I think Portland matches the latter and if Wade bails then Miami could match the former and leave Brooklyn with, I dunno, Sullinger?

As for the question of other teams, it's always hard to project. Phoenix and New Orleans were relative surprises. I wouldn't rule out Chicago taking the plunge and getting what they can for Butler.

LondonSox · Jul 6, 2016

Oh you know the Bulls could be bad, and a Butler injury from horrendous. Wade or no Wade.

Celtics 16/17 Roster and Assets

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