Celtics as a FA destination (broken from trade rumors)
- Thread starter Jed Zeppelin
- Start date
Much like with Garnett, I think the Celtics would have to acquire a big name talent via trade first in order to convince a franchise player to choose Boston.
I agree, though I think a package signing with Horford might also be of interest,maybe even more. IF the Celtics could convince them as a package it fills both the biggest holes on the team, and gives them the assets to possibly find a 3rd star.
He might not be a "star" but Isaiah Thomas is certainly capable of playing the Ray Allen role in a Big 3 of Durant and Horford. The hardest part is obviously finding the "Horford".
I knew someone would comment on my poor wording. I meant finding the guy to convince Durant will be harder since it has to be done via trade unless Horford is the guy. Ainge has to find his Horford before he can even entertain a Durant scenario because it'd be a waste of time.
this situation is different, because the relevant guys here are FAs. So, if Durant wants Boston he can help convince Horford to come too, and Celts would be happy to delay the signing to help him make it happen. That flexibility isn't really there in the Garnett trade scenario---you had to get the other player in first, because you can't control the other team (Seattle, as it was).
Mannix isn't the first person to report this, and others, like Lowe and Simmons, have said they've heard that Boston will get a serious look.
There's a lot of flexibility in Boston and a lot of ways to make this happen. Horford--if Durant has interest in playing with him--is the easiest way. But Jimmy Butler will be shopped seriously this summer, and the C's have the pieces to make that happen, and Butler and Durant would make a hell of a combo in the "new" NBA. There is also, of course, DeMarcus Cousins who is always a day away from being shopped.
There's a lot of flexibility in Boston and a lot of ways to make this happen. Horford--if Durant has interest in playing with him--is the easiest way. But Jimmy Butler will be shopped seriously this summer, and the C's have the pieces to make that happen, and Butler and Durant would make a hell of a combo in the "new" NBA. There is also, of course, DeMarcus Cousins who is always a day away from being shopped.
Sign that the Durant silliness is behind us?
Jimmy Butler will be representing the Chicago Bulls for the Draft Lottery.
(I'm sticking with my call of drafting Dunn for Philly as part of an Okafor trade being our big move this summer)
Jimmy Butler will be representing the Chicago Bulls for the Draft Lottery.
(I'm sticking with my call of drafting Dunn for Philly as part of an Okafor trade being our big move this summer)
Bad week for the C's.
Durant went from a snowball's chance of signing with us to a snowball's chance of leaving OKC to sign with anyone.
And Joerger to Sacramento probably means Cousins not going anywhere for the time being.
Not sure who is even out there for a big Danny move now.
Durant went from a snowball's chance of signing with us to a snowball's chance of leaving OKC to sign with anyone.
And Joerger to Sacramento probably means Cousins not going anywhere for the time being.
Not sure who is even out there for a big Danny move now.
Did I miss something with Durant or is this just based on possibly beating SA?
1. If Durant wants warm weather.....San Antonio and Golden State, among others, are a better choice.
2. If Durant wants to win a title.....San Antonio and Golden State, among others (including OKC), are a better choice.
3. If Durant wants to maximize his earnings.....Oklahoma City is the better choice.
4. The "Trade for Butler and Durant will come" (flawed imo) thesis takes a major hit when Chicago invites Butler to be their lottery representative and they are essentially making him the face of the franchise.
1, 2, and 3 have always been why Boston never had a serious chance at Durant. Today's announcement on #4 takes the wind out of the sail some have been dreaming of these past few weeks.
Durant staying in OKC has far less to do with their playoff run than it does as to whether Russell Westbrook is intent on leaving after next season. In fact, if Durant bolts, I've wondered if a guy like Westbrook who is a year away from free agency would be Danny's trade target to give him time to sell him on Boston.
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No idea where Westbrook's head is at but my hunch is he'll be a Laker either this summer or the next. I'm sure that is LA's plan. Sign Durant and get Westbrook to force his way out with Russell and others going the other way. LA really needs to keep their 2016 pick this year to keep these kind of scenarios alive.
Far crazier things have happened than Chicago using Butler as their lotto rep before trading him.
Semi-aside: is weather really a major consideration? Do Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Toronto, Minneapolis, New York/Brooklyn, and Portland get this knock against them too? I find it odd that we (NBA fans) fixate on this as a noteworthy aspect of the decision - it's probably the minorest of minor considerations, especially for a superstar. You want to win wherever you can, you want to get paid what you can within the constraints of the system, and you want the team/FO to have a process you buy into. The rest is cosmetic.
This doesn't change the math that Durant-to-Boston is exceedingly unlikely, but it means #1 is sort of a red herring consideration.
Yeah every rebuilding team needs that one big "out" to hang their head on and this is certainly the Lakers. Ainge did it with Garnett by carrying large expiring contracts on the payroll to allow these deals to work (and continued to do so with Lee and Amir), the Sixers was based on pure luck of landing into a transcendent rookie(s), while the Lakers have had their eyes on Westbrook coming home via FA complete with Kobe's open recruitment of him.
Weather (Miami, Texas, LA), nightlife (NY/Brooklyn/Chicago), African-American culture (Milwaukee), no state tax for 41 home games (TX/FL)......you can include all of these and they all have it over Boston which is why the odds are so stacked against us in FA which is why cap space has never been an objective of Ainge's while carrying large expiring deals to trade for stars has been. To answer your question yes some of those cold weather small markets are not on the radar of top tier FA if all else is equal. Why would that ever be a preference for young multi-millionaire millennials over more trendy landing spots?
The only reason we have cap space this summer is due to the rising salary cap which doesn't give us an advantage in acquiring the top tier players. It does give us an opportunity to overpay a second or third tier player should it make sense.
How is Oklahoma City a great free agent destination vs. Boston? Do you think players would choose to go there if Westbrook and Durant weren't there? Those two wouldn't choose to go there that is for sure. The weather/nightlife/etc. is total bullshit. The fact that Boston hasn't had cap space to attract top FA in years has a lot more to do with it than cold days.
After the '07 lottery I more or less checked out on the C's for a while (the prospect of Yi Jianlian instead of Oden/Durant was too much). Does anybody remember if Ray Allen had been named as a target at any point during that season or leading up to the draft? Looking back, Seattle's rebuild combined with his contract should have made it clear to anyone paying attention that he would be available, but I'm curious if there were trade talks surrounding him or anything specifically linking him to Boston. I only ask because I'm half-expecting a draft trade that brings us someone we haven't heard about or weren't expecting, like a Khris Middleton or someone like that. At the time I remember being surprised by the Allen trade but again, I had gone basketball numb for a few months. All I really remember rumor-wise from that season was the terrifying prospect of Iverson to Boston for Jefferson + the pick.
Who is claiming OKC is a great FA destination? Nice straw man.
Weather and nightlife don't matter for multimillion dollar African-American athletes? Why do many athletes have second homes in these locations as opposed to Boston? Why aren't they vacationing in Harvard Square instead of South Beach and LA? Cmon you're smarter than this.
You are ignoring that Ainge has purposely not had cap space for a decade choosing dead money contracts on the books that are valuable to trade by matching salaries. It's always been his MO.
Good points. Many times the deals that get done are the ones kept under wraps by the teams/agents. There were some Allen trade rumors at the deadline the prior year iirc but nothing more than typical random stuff that we hear all the time.
Looking back one can look at the Presti hiring as a sign that he was going to change course so reading between the lines is often better than listening to what Simmons writes. This is one reason I expect a major shakeup in Philly this summer under Colangelo......he isn't going to training camp with Hinkie's team so this is the most obvious example of a team to look at who will be making trades that aren't necessarily rumored weeks ahead.
The issue isn't that they are/aren't factors. It's that you grossly overstate the importance of these things when they comprise 0-3% of the evaluation process for most FAs, and it makes a huge difference for a few random outliers like Carmelo.
LaMarcus Aldridge chose San Antonio over LA (among other destinations). The Lakers are not merely "not in the running" for Durant, Hollywood is so far behind OKC, GSW, SAS, WAS, and BOS on his list that everyone literally laughs out loud when a Lakers fan wishcasts. That's because the city doesn't matter all that much, the team does.
If this was 1996, you'd be right - this was a time when city mattered more to players and agents because the size of your shoe deal varied based on destination, and these city factors had impact on shoe deals. However, all the people in the know say city doesn't matter. CBA, social media, NBA.tv, and primetime coverage all year have made city trivial to all but a handful of players in terms of where they play.
Other sports don't have this perceived problem HRB with the NBA weather/nightlife narratives. Why is it only basketball? Do football and baseball players not like to go out and have a good time or enjoy warm weather. I don't buy the excuses that people put out for why players don't choose Boston. You want to know why they didn't choose Boston in the past 30 years? One reason is that franchise-type players do not typically leave their team they were drafted by so there are not many chance if any at all to sign one. They are mostly traded but not many leave in FA so there are very few chances to sign a franchise player. Shaq, LeBron, Moses Malone, and Steve Nash are the only franchise/cornerstone type of players that I can think of that changed teams in free agency. Another reason is that since the original Big 3 era outside of the PP/KG/RA years Boston was not a place where it was set up to compete and win a title. Before Ainge, they were a mess. Every time I hear about the nightlife/weather excuses it pisses me off because it's a cop out and it ignores that the Celtics did a piss poor job rebuilding the franchise back up after Bird/McHale/Parish left. Yes, they absolutely had shitty luck with the deaths of Reggie Lewis and Len Bias and the ping pong balls not netting the team Tim Duncan. But, it doesn't take away that the team made a lot of bad decisions both in the draft and trading the good draft picks they did have away for awful returns. The misses in the draft set the franchise back a long time.
I am fully aware that Ainge has not had cap space by choice. It's not because of the nightlife or weather that bigger FAs haven't chosen Boston. It's the fact that Ainge is waiting to trade the bad contracts.
Right now is the only time in the last 30 years that they are set up with both the cap space and the ability to build a championship roster to attract a franchise-type player in free agency.
Just to pile on....
I think it's time that we require the next person that states Boston will never be a FA destination because of nightlife and weather to cite a source, preferably one more recent than 1996, to prove this point. Otherwise, such statements are just rehashing Dan Shaughnessy level of nonsense. Anyone who's been to San Antonio knows that the nightlife there is not exactly throbbing until all hours of the morning.
Beyond the cap space, there are many differences between the upcoming offseason and 1996:
- Celtics are a young, improving team that could feasibly be a true contender in the near future.
- Celtics have a well-respected GM and coach. Some people here forget how bad the Celtics reputation was under Paul Gaston's so-called leadership. Players today actually like playing for Boston and Brad Stevens. That was not the case back in the Pitino days.
- CBA, social media and other field levelers mentioned upthread mean that a player does not have to play for the Lakers to make huge endorsement money.
- You no longer have Spike Lee crapping on Boston every chance he gets.
Boston is not a perfect destination, and the key limitation is that marquee free agents are few and far between. So Ainge is smart to be keeping his options open by stockpiling those picks. If Butler and Durant stay with their respective teams, such a decision will have nothing to do with Boston's weather or nightlife or endorsement opportunities.
I think it's time that we require the next person that states Boston will never be a FA destination because of nightlife and weather to cite a source, preferably one more recent than 1996, to prove this point. Otherwise, such statements are just rehashing Dan Shaughnessy level of nonsense. Anyone who's been to San Antonio knows that the nightlife there is not exactly throbbing until all hours of the morning.
Beyond the cap space, there are many differences between the upcoming offseason and 1996:
- Celtics are a young, improving team that could feasibly be a true contender in the near future.
- Celtics have a well-respected GM and coach. Some people here forget how bad the Celtics reputation was under Paul Gaston's so-called leadership. Players today actually like playing for Boston and Brad Stevens. That was not the case back in the Pitino days.
- CBA, social media and other field levelers mentioned upthread mean that a player does not have to play for the Lakers to make huge endorsement money.
- You no longer have Spike Lee crapping on Boston every chance he gets.
Boston is not a perfect destination, and the key limitation is that marquee free agents are few and far between. So Ainge is smart to be keeping his options open by stockpiling those picks. If Butler and Durant stay with their respective teams, such a decision will have nothing to do with Boston's weather or nightlife or endorsement opportunities.
All else wasn't equal with Aldridge. The Spurs are title contenders and he saved on TX state taxes over LA and other destinations. Each of those variables generally carry a certain amount of weight.....the amount varies from player to player
Joe Johnson went to Miami in large part due to his relationships with veterans Wade, Amare and Haslem....variables that again we couldn't compete with. I agree LA is far behind the obvious "Big Three" to sign Durant but to group Boston in there at all with zero mitigating factors is nothing but blind optimism.
Baseball players don't have to live in New England from November through March while also being a completely different culture.
Winning, Money (taxes), Teammate relationships, Exposure (Melo and wife), Weather, Nightlife.....these are all factors and I'm not claiming any one carries more weight than the other as it is player dependent so when somebody makes a post that goes directly to weather and nightlife you are cherry picking and ignoring the entire picture and weakens your argument. My point is that we have freaking none of them to attract big name FA.....Zero. We have these discussions every year and 12 months ago it was going to be different......and we landed Amir Johnson while turning his deal into an expiring deal with an option. We tried to acquire Kevin Garnett and a deal was done.....but he refused to come to Boston until Ainge made a franchise changing trade for Ray Allen allowing him to revisit KG and convince him we could have something special hear. What is different this summer than last in the FA market besides having a shit ton more competition?
Psh, Ainge has been laying the groundwork for this summer since the moment he illegally sat next to Mama Durant almost 10 years ago.
Other than Tayshaun Prince, just about every player who has come through Boston has found the Ainge/Stevens leadership (and supportive-but-distant ownership) to be one of the strongest aspects of the Celtics franchise.
Realistically, players are looking at what a roster looks like right now or (at most) 2 years from now. It's the lack of a very-strong-core that puts the Cs at a disadvantage. Which means they are one Blake Griffin trade away from having the gravitational pull of a San Antonio for just about any top FA.
Realistically, players are looking at what a roster looks like right now or (at most) 2 years from now. It's the lack of a very-strong-core that puts the Cs at a disadvantage. Which means they are one Blake Griffin trade away from having the gravitational pull of a San Antonio for just about any top FA.
Taxes are not co-equal with title contention. You make yourself sound stupid every time you imply such nonsense.
That's the problem. As a general principle, they DO carry different and relatively predictable normative weights, and with VERY rare exception. Acting like they don't is like when CNN invites 1 scientist to represent the "climate change side" (99.99% of scientific community), and 1 scientist to represent change-deniers. By stripping weights, you create a fictional landscape where edge cases are dramatically advantaged and norms are severely disadvantaged.
What's different? The Celtics won 8 more games, and Isiah Thomas has emerged as a genuine All Star caliber player.
And can you name any major FA's that changed teams last summer? Not sure why last summer, when the Celtics had very limited cap space, is even relevant, but whatever...
Landing a player like Durant in FA is such a small chance in happening and should be looked at as so. Garnett refused to come to Boston at first because he did not want to leave Minnesota. But, McHale was forced to deal him and yes having Ray Allen helped him be convinced that Boston was the right destination.
The difference this summer in FA is that they could have over $30 million in cap space and a top 5 pick to hopefully trade for a Ray Allen-type player to join an established star in IT. I'm not saying they will land 2 or even 1 star this summer as a lot has to still go right next Tuesday night. But, they are all set up to do so and Danny has to close some deals or his legacy here post Big 3 will be starting to be labeled as a missed opportunity. The point of my post was to say that the external factors don't really mean much when you don't have an attractive team to come to.
Not saying they should or that it's remotely possible but would we theoretically have enough cap space to sign Howard and Horford? Add those 2 guys and a top 1-5 pick, and you probably have a 55 win team on your hands with the Brooklyn and Memphis future assets to play with.
Bad idea, possible or not. If nothing else, they need to invest in wings who can shoot.
While I am not 100% against your camp (I believe I have made the same arguments you are trying to make, but I've come around to at least sitting firmly in the middle on the debate), I'm not sure how Joe Johnson figures into this discussion much, if at all. 34 year olds making $23M on a buyout and looking for a team for a couple months aren't exactly analogous to Kevin Durant or another superstar. Especially when the expected roles were so different. Joe Johnson knew he wasn't getting 30 minutes a night if he came back to Boston.
All the more reason luck plays into it, ping pong balls and all.
Danny has put his team in the best position he can. The team was very mishandled in the 90s in every way, shape, and form. Danny, Doc, and now Brad have helped build a heck of a lot of equity in the franchise. Some rewards have already been seen, and we hope a lot more come this summer and into the next few.
No one expected Durant to be a viable option, no one thought Jimmy Butler would be an option. They don't look like they are now. Making who we draft the most important thing. This rebuild has gone three times faster than expected. If we can get a top three pick and attempt to develop a top tier player instead of trying to trade for one, lure a superstar free agent to Boston, or overpay a Kent Bazemore/Harrison Barnes that may be the best route and what Danny really planning on worst case scenario Plan B all along. Then that top tier player can draw free agents more than a coach and system. At least we aren't in Brooklyn's shoes.
Danny has put his team in the best position he can. The team was very mishandled in the 90s in every way, shape, and form. Danny, Doc, and now Brad have helped build a heck of a lot of equity in the franchise. Some rewards have already been seen, and we hope a lot more come this summer and into the next few.
No one expected Durant to be a viable option, no one thought Jimmy Butler would be an option. They don't look like they are now. Making who we draft the most important thing. This rebuild has gone three times faster than expected. If we can get a top three pick and attempt to develop a top tier player instead of trying to trade for one, lure a superstar free agent to Boston, or overpay a Kent Bazemore/Harrison Barnes that may be the best route and what Danny really planning on worst case scenario Plan B all along. Then that top tier player can draw free agents more than a coach and system. At least we aren't in Brooklyn's shoes.
Taxes, for example, are not co-equal with title contention for every player and I apologize if I phrased my point to reflect that it was. Some players/agents place more weight on pocketing an extra couple million while others prefer title contention. We don't know how much each player values each individual factor.....all we do know is that we are at a disadvantage on the tax factor when compared to teams in TX and FL. We can't win that battle with any player.....we could however easily lose it IF tax savings are a factor for the particular player.
What benefit has Dallas seen from Texas's tax advantage? San Antonio's never been a huge player in free agency until last summer, and it's a pretty big stretch to attribute Aldridge to taxes. Which leaves Houston. Who got Howard after he flopped in LA, and who else? For all of the talk about the role taxes play in NBA free agency, where's the evidence?
An extra couple million? Are NBA players suddenly making $80 million/year? Because, 5.3% (MA tax rate is 5.3%) of half of $20 million (obviously, the new max rates are a bit higher in some circumstances, so this number would be scaled up a bit, but $20 million is a nice round number for illustrative purposes that is in the right ballpark) is 5.3% of $10 million is $530,000. I suppose you could have been referring to the life of a 5-year deal, in which case it is "an extra couple million" dollars. But, the impact of taxes on player earnings is being vastly overstated. $530,000 in taxes a year isn't nothing. It is, in fact, a lot of money. But, I'd venture to guess that it's not having a major impact on the calculus for most max-level players. It's also worth noting that low income tax states tend to have higher property taxes, so a very real chunk of that extra marginal income is likely getting eaten up by those other forms of taxes.
For the agent, they are allowed a max of 4% of a player's contract. I'm also entirely unsure if agents get taxed based on where a player earns their revenue. My assumption would be that the agent is taxed where their offices are, and cares not a whit about player tax rates unless the player does. But, that could be wrong. Assuming it is, and the agent does care, we're talking about a maximum of $21,000 dollars/year for the agent. Once again, that's not nothing, but it's unlikely to cause an agent to convince a client who is making them $800,000/year (not counting endorsements) to do something other than what will make them the happiest and most likely to remain a client.
Florida also has no state tax, Miami got Shaq post-Lakers and of course LeBron and Bosh.
The evidence is in simple common sense. If you have two job offers where all else was equal and the only mitigating factor was that one job would put an additional 2-3% of your salary in your pocket which one would you take? There is absolute 100% certainly that no sane person is saying.....well all else is equal so I'm willingly going to take less money. If someone takes less money than it isn't because all else is equal and other factors are in play.
How much of a factor it plays is another question which we are not privy to the discussions between player and agent. Discounting this completely as a factor is akin to feeling that a player would never instruct his agent to find him the most lucrative deal. I'm confident that occurs at a minimum of fairly often.
Yes, I was referring to the amount of tax dollars saved on the contract that the agent is negotiating.
The actual percentage of road games where the impact of state tax would affect a player is closer to 35-38% and not 50% (doing math in head quickly) as the player would not pay a state tax for road games in other FL or TX cities. In addition, Illinois forgives the "jock tax" for players on teams without a "jock tax."
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Oh, right, whoops. But LeBron/Wade/Bosh definitely talked about how one of the reasons they each took a few mill less to all fit in was that the no state tax helped some.
You have any kind of cite for that? I just have no recollection of them saying anything other than that they wanted to win a ring.
From the Windhorst post-mortem in 2010:
"In addition to the weather and the city's attractions for young, rich athletes, Riley knew the lack of a state income tax in Florida could help him sell it."
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2010/07/inside_the_decision_miamis_cou.html
Also in that piece:
"That was why Riley was so amped up before his presentation to James in Cleveland a week ago. He packed up his seven championship rings, had his salary-cap specialists create displays to show how Florida taxes could save James money and brought along Alonzo Mourning to make an emotional pitch about how the team backed him up as he recovered from a kidney transplant."
Not sure if there are actual quotes from them or not at any point, but that seems like the kind of thing they might or might not say publicly.
Another piece:
"Remember, too, that just four summers ago, the decisions by LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade in Miami weren’t made in a tax vacuum."
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/07/24/nba-doesnt-view-state-tax-disparity-as-competitive-disadvantage/
"That was why Riley was so amped up before his presentation to James in Cleveland a week ago. He packed up his seven championship rings, had his salary-cap specialists create displays to show how Florida taxes could save James money and brought along Alonzo Mourning to make an emotional pitch about how the team backed him up as he recovered from a kidney transplant."
Not sure if there are actual quotes from them or not at any point, but that seems like the kind of thing they might or might not say publicly.
Another piece:
"Remember, too, that just four summers ago, the decisions by LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade in Miami weren’t made in a tax vacuum."
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/07/24/nba-doesnt-view-state-tax-disparity-as-competitive-disadvantage/
More from Windhorst in 2010, keep in mind that he was essentially a spokesman for LeBron at this point:
"James, the Cavs' all-time leader in scoring among other categories, could be leaving as much as $40 million on the table by not signing a maximum contract with the Cavs and instead going with the Heat. Miami officials could have attempted to get around this fact by pointing out the difference in state income tax rates.
Florida has none and Ohio's is 6 percent. James would have to pay out-of-state income tax for most of his 41 road games per season, but none of his home games. That is a difference that could save James millions over the next five years when also including his endorsement earnings, which are believed to be about $15 million to $20 million a year."
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2010/07/legone_lebron_james_confirms_h.html
"James, the Cavs' all-time leader in scoring among other categories, could be leaving as much as $40 million on the table by not signing a maximum contract with the Cavs and instead going with the Heat. Miami officials could have attempted to get around this fact by pointing out the difference in state income tax rates.
Florida has none and Ohio's is 6 percent. James would have to pay out-of-state income tax for most of his 41 road games per season, but none of his home games. That is a difference that could save James millions over the next five years when also including his endorsement earnings, which are believed to be about $15 million to $20 million a year."
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2010/07/legone_lebron_james_confirms_h.html
The home tax rate is the differential we are calculating. It's irrelevant that some road games don't have income tax because every team plays some road games that involve no income tax. If you want to make a more nuanced argument that certain teams end up with more favorable road tax rates, that's almost certainly true, but I'm operating under the assumption of rough equality because I really can't be bothered to do that detailed a calculation. They don't change the fundamental fact that what we're discussing is, about $500k per year.
I continue to find it fascinating that the impact of state tax rates, in your world view, is crippling to Boston as a FA destination but doesn't hurt California and New York teams. Because, if 5.3% has a catastrophic impact on the ability to attract top-tier talent, surely rates of 12-13% in California and NYC would make it impossible to sign any free agents, let alone good ones. But, of course, that narrative doesn't work. Or maybe it's because these same income-conscious players are just really excited about how cheap it is to live in NYC/LA and that balances out the high tax rate?
Edit: I want to be clear that I am not trying to argue that tax rate is irrelevant, although parts of this post may read that way. I think tax rate is a factor that some players certainly consider and that it is a weight on the scales. I also think a lot of other things matter. I tend to think most players care the most about being in a good work environment and having a shot at a title. Once you have that, the other stuff starts to matter, but that comes first. When it comes to this offseason and Durant, I think Boston arguably presents the best non-Warriors option to be in a position to compete for titles. That premise is arguable, but if you buy it, and you assume that Durant cares about winning, that gives Boston a real shot at signing him. I think it's probably actually a harder sell for Boston to attract someone like Horford for the same reason. Durant plus player-B, either someone Durant can pull in or someone Ainge can trade for, makes us a true contender. Subsitute Horford for Durant and we're just a really good also-ran hoping for good luck in the draft before Horford gets old.
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Actually if you read some of those articles I linked above, the rate doesn't just apply to salary but also to endorsement money. For instance, Durant's Nike deal is $30M per until 2024, and I'm sure he has other deals too. Guys like him and James are obviously the outliers as to how much they make in endorsements, but it's still a factor for other players also.