Celtics vs Da Culture - Round 1 (FIGHT!)
- Thread starter Ed Hillel
- Start date
That's a weird way of putting it.
I disagree with the fact of that. I don't think they starters were in the game in the final minute because their endurance was being tested. I don't think they were played too many minutes - 41 is more or less an ordinary playoff game for Tatum who led the team. I think they were in late because they played like absolute shit for the first 8 minutes of the 4th, letting Miami go on a 29-12 run that closed the lead to a point where Mazzulla needed to have the starters finish because the run needed to be stopped in order to win.
If Tatum suffered any lingering injury, then, yes, they are. It seems he did not, but I'd rather not see those risks taken unnecessarily.
This was the best case scenario once we got up 30+. The exhale occuring today is much preferred to it taking place in G2. It was going to occur at some point so this is perfect.
Nitpick but they went into the 4th with a 32 point lead, and they were still up 31 at the 7:49 mark. Miami then went on an 18-2 run to make it 103-88 at the 4 minute mark. Then the Celts played fine for the final 4 minutes and it never got closer than 14. It was a bad 4 minute stretch though.
Fair enough. But that bad 4 minute stretch was basically the starters, with Horford instead of White. It was Tatum, White (and then Holiday in for White for a minute), Horford, Hauser, and Pritchard who mostly held the lead. JB and KP came in for Pritchard and Hauser at 6:56, with the Celtics up 28, and they were outscored 15-2. Then White came in for Horford and the Celtics outscored the heat by 11-6 the rest of the way.
I disagree with the idea, but I’m a sucker for these memes
View: https://twitter.com/JrueUTD/status/1782132272944062972
View: https://twitter.com/JrueUTD/status/1782132272944062972
Any idea why Hauser played such short minutes? (I watched the first half and taped the second which I haven’t watched yet)
The Heat without Butler, and even without the veteran wile of Lowry, simply aren’t a threat. Until Tatum started the fourth quarter trying to get his tenth assist by throwing the ball to the Heat Miami had to work like crazy to get a shot by anyone but Bam.
They had one role player go caleb from three, but in general, Boston gummed up their offense. Wright had 17 points on 7 shots. The rest got 77 points on 74 shots. Tough to win going 12-37 from three while earning only 6 FTs. At one point, before Boston took their foot off their necks, Miami had 63 total points and Boston had 60 just from three.
They had one role player go caleb from three, but in general, Boston gummed up their offense. Wright had 17 points on 7 shots. The rest got 77 points on 74 shots. Tough to win going 12-37 from three while earning only 6 FTs. At one point, before Boston took their foot off their necks, Miami had 63 total points and Boston had 60 just from three.
Looks like Joe tightened up his rotation in the second half. IIRC, Hauser didn’t see the floor.
Co-sign.
This applies to the juggernaut that is the Celtics when they are actually challenged… until it eventually turns to a blowout.
As well as this thread, de-railed yet again by one poster’s favorite characteristic “lack of mental toughness”.
Agreed. Joe has tape to work on & they witnessed what happens if they take their foot off the pedal. A 20-point win is probably a better outcome than a 35-point blowout
Jaylen got beat back door a bunch. Celtic on-ball defensive intensity & connectedness will dictate how far they go in the playoffs.
plus Stop Delon Wright!!!
I’m interested to see how Spo tries to get the Celtics away from the 3 point shooting. Clearly the zone was ineffective. Clearly they can’t guard in man. Some sort of full court press to drain clock so the Celtics can’t pass it around? Try to force turnovers?? Tough one. He’ll have something.
The big rotation change Mazzulla made was to his first substitution. For most of the season when the team was healthy, it was Tatum and Holiday out, Horford and Hauser in, somewhere between the 5 and 7 minute mark.
In this game, Mazzulla went to Pritchard coming in with Horford instead of Hauser, who came in later.
I think that at least for this series, Pritchard is #7 on the depth chart and Hauser is #8. It seemed to work fine in this game. Hauser was certainly good (12 points on 4-6 from three, all in the first half), but Pritchard was also pretty good (8 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists in 24 minutes and the Celtics were effective while he was in: his +19 was second only to White's +24).
It makes sense to throw Pritchard in against this version of the Heat, without Butler to target him when Miami has the ball, and on the other end of the court his dribbling skills help against Miami’s grabby/reaching defense.
It's cool that the Celtics could both get a dominating win and give EJ things to freak out about. Truly taking their game to a new level.
The 4th quarter issues also helped them to avoid this classic Spoelstra trap!
And on 4/20, which makes it very much NOT a surprise for the Chief... ;-}
Not to look ahead too much, but the way Boston was carving up Miami's various help and zone looks gives me a lot of confidence that they really attack the stuff Denver does putting 2 on the ball and rotating back. That flustered the Cs a lot in the most recent Denver matchup, but I've been optimistic they can solve it with prep time.
So.. you're thought is that the Celtics ...up over 30 points... just weren't mentally tough enough to maintain that lead and they let the Heat back in the game to close it to 20 by the end?
it was a 15-2 run for several reasons:
1. This kind of stretch happens ALL OF THE TIME in the current NBA... with every single team.
2. Wright got insanely hot from three
3. They did fall asleep on some back door cuts and defensive rotations
4. They missed a number of wide open threes and layups.
None of that is indicative of a lack of mental toughness or an idea that they're still the same team as last year and 'haven't learned anything'.
I don't understand how someone can be so miserable with a 20 point win.
Did they show Bird / Parish etc at all during the game? I missed any sort of discussion of that by Redick / Doris and co. Would have thought they'd make a big deal of it in pregame , or go to them during a timeout to get the crowd pumped.
Good post. IIRC, they ran some kind of zone full-court press in the first half for a few series. But, yes, they'll have to try something more aggressive, maybe man trapping. Pritchard seems like a good counter-move to this, potentially, as he plays super fast energy and a good handle (although his height could be a liability against traps). I imagine it's hard to maintain this defense for Miami, though, when you barely have 7-8 real NBA players to throw out there.
One thing I didn't love from C's offensive perspective: they started out getting a lot of looks at the hoop with Tatum and Brown, sometimes kicking it out for great looks from 3, helping them build the early 15 point lead. Brown bungled a few opportunities with shaky ball-handling, but it was there early. I don't know if Miami made an adjustment, but from the 2nd quarter on, it turned more into Circus of Three Pointers, which we hit enough of to do fine, but I wondered what happened to the early close-mid-range looks. Tatum hit a few foul-line post-ups... KP as well.. I don't remember seeing one single JB mid-range fade-away (the thing where he dribbles in, then turns and shoots a foul-line jumper over a helpless Duncan Robinson)... in general it seemed we spent a lot less time near the hoop after the opening quarter.
I hope to see G2 emphasis on getting close-mid-range looks for JB and others. Horford, for one, had the opportunity to get bunnies at the basket all day when the C's went 2bigs (he posted once or twice, and it looked like light work). Miami just doesn't have another big body besides Bam to throw at anyone.
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I commented in the game thread but it did seem like they got a bit shook about going to the rim sometime starting late first quarter. Whether it was frustration with the physicality / not getting calls, missing a few shots in close, whatever, but it was noticeable to me that they kind of stopped trying to get to the rim. The first quarter ended with only a 5 point lead, and the Heat scored the first bucket of the 2nd to cut it to 26-23. At that point the Celts were only 6-18 from 3. It really wasn’t pretty. But of course Hauser came in and knocked down 3 straight and that was pretty much ballgame. Once the lead got back up over 10 it never dropped below again.
Exactly. To be honest, in real time, it felt rather like laziness.They'd been getting to the hoop, drawing the defense, then kicking it out for open looks... and it worked so well in their opening run that they decided, "Let's skip the kick-out part of this and just shoot the three, since it's working so well." But maybe there was an adjustment Miami made to limit looks at the hoops and allow more open looks from deep, I don't know.
Edit: looking at the replay:
- during the 17-4 opening, every C's possession involved penetrating and scoring or dishing out.
- Then, there was a timeout, after which Miami stayed in man but clearly focused on swiping at the ball away or tying us up for jump balls, which they did successfully on several plays where we got deep. This is where we seemed to give up on attacking the hoop.
- After that, toward the end of the period, they went to the zone where it made sense to carve them up with open jumpers, which we did after a few initial misses.
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I only saw the first period, but it looked like the lane was congested. Jb drove a couple times and was mobbed. Also Miami was reaching and poking for the ball quote a bit. I thought countering with mid post moves (jb's fade at the stripe, jt closer to the baseline) might have lossened thongs up. Also I thought pp could have looked for his stuff a bit more with the extra attention elsewhere (maybe a couple possessions in a row).
I think part of this was the defense, Miami playing to take the drive away and (thus) concede the three. I think if you were Miami you had to be pretty happy with coming out of the first quarter down only 5, but clearly, what they were doing did not hold up.
My concern, not an issue yesterday, is that when Miami clogs the paint and allows the three, it is important for the Celtics to still work on generating quality looks and not just jacking up the first available shot. I also want to see JB, when mobbed on drives, recognize it and pull up or move the ball. That's an ever-improving part of his game that will be crucial in the playoffs. (JB and JT were good yesterday at passing out of double teams and they need to keep it up.)
Good point. With Butler out they lack the Alpha hunter to go after PP
After CJM reviews the tape, I bet we'll see a little more of PP/Hauser going forward in this series. Not to "goon it up" but Bam needs to be introduced to Tillman for 4-5 minutes.
As far as shot selection, opting for open Corner3s from Jrue, Hauser, PP, White, Horford over
the JAYs dribbling into traffic hunting for a mid-range turnaround or fadeaway is the "Good vs Great Shot" approach they have taken most of the season. Tatum did a great job kicking out, once he drew attention, for those wide-open 3s.
Pay no mind to the NBA Media's pearl-clutching OMG they shot 18 3s in Q1
nonsense (hoping JJ is there throughout to keep Doris in check)
Generally agree with this, but several of those 3s were not great looks. A couple from Tatum come immediately to mind. I don't care if they shoot 60 3s. I just want them to be good looks within the offense.Good point. With Butler out they lack the Alpha hunter.
After CJM reviews the tape, I bet we'll see a little more of PP/Hauser going forward in this series. Not to "goon it up" but Bam needs to be introduced to Tillman for 4-5 minutes.
As far as shot selection, opting for open Corner3s from Jrue, Hauser, PP, White, Horford over
the JAYs dribbling into traffic hunting for a mid-range turnaround or fadeaway is the "Good vs Great Shot" approach they have taken most of the season. Tatum did a great job kicking out, once he drew attention, for those wide-open 3s.
Pay no mind to the NBA Media's pearl-clutching OMG they shot 18 3s in Q1
Agreed. I'd rather not see early shot clock Tatum ATB 3s from the right side (44% vs 23% is pretty stark)
Tatum squared up his shoulders when shooting 3s much better from the left side vs the right side, this entire season.
It was noticeable for the first time in his career.
https://3stepsbasket.com/player/jayson-tatum/shooting
Here are all the 3s. I don't have the patience to analyze each one, but quick takeaway is that the 45% the Celts shot felt about right for the looks they got. They hit some ones they shouldn't have, missed some they should have made, and of the 49 3s I'd say maybe ~35 of them were great looks.
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042300101&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612738&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042300101&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612738&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game
I thought the Cs played pretty good offense until they got up 30+ and then they got bored. Obviously not ideal but they're human. But here's MIA's problem in a nutshell. According to NBA.com, Herro did this against BOS's defenders:
1-3 vs JB
1-3 vs Jrue
0-1 vs Al
0-2 vs KP
1-2 vs PP
0-2 vs DW
no shots versus JT.
Everywhere Herro turns, he's being guarded by someone who can make his life difficult.
At one point, MIA decided to try the Love-Hauser matchup with a modicum of success on a couple of possessions. Kevin Love in the post is not a great way to run offense in 2024.
1-3 vs JB
1-3 vs Jrue
0-1 vs Al
0-2 vs KP
1-2 vs PP
0-2 vs DW
no shots versus JT.
Everywhere Herro turns, he's being guarded by someone who can make his life difficult.
At one point, MIA decided to try the Love-Hauser matchup with a modicum of success on a couple of possessions. Kevin Love in the post is not a great way to run offense in 2024.
In the few minutes I watched, Bam took Porzingis into the post and scored very easily numerous times in a row. As it was, he shot 10-18 for the game (56%). Why didn't he try to score more?
Good question. In the C’s season thread someone posted that the C’s made 1 more hoop than the Heat in a 20 point win. I suppose Herro could get hot for a game or two. Give him 30 and Bam 25. Where are the other 60 points coming from that they’ll need to beat the Celts?
Outside of Butler making a return in Miami, I still don’t see the Heat squeaking out a single victory.
Question for people who are much smarter than me...lets take your numbers as accurate and of their 49 3's 14 of them were bad (or at least, not good looks). Isn't some of the reason they get so many good looks is because Tatum is good enough at the early shot clock 3s that they have to defend it, and the celts exploit that in most of their possessions? Saying it the opposite way, if they knew he wasnt willing to take those shots every once in awhile they would be much easier to defend?
Dont get me wrong, they frustrate the hell out of me and always have. But given they continue to happen on a relatively routine basis it makes me think there is a rhyme and reason to them?
This is Miami's biggest challenge: they can dirty-up on defense and hope for weaker shooting; on offense, though, other than hoping for turnovers that lead to transition baskets they are going to struggle to get to the 105 or more points they need. Threre's only real two on-ball creators on the roster: Butler (who is out) and Rozier (who isn't great, but can do it)...and is also out. So what's left?
1. Bam: A great tertiary scorer and versatile offensive player who neither can nor wants to be a primary option. Is it possible he'll step up to mid-20s on shots and be a fulcrum? Possible, but history says unlikely.
2. Herro: Also a good supporting guy who has never really been a lead, and probably doesn't quite have the tools to do so. His best asset---shooting and penetration when D is in rotation---isn't viable when he's the defensive focus
3. Jaquez: As several noted, they tried to feature him more but he's a third/fourth scorer who can be aggressive but can't really be a fulcrum. Doesn't have the bag, physically not able to beat plus defense consistently, and not enough of a shooter to get an advantage via shot-fakes
4. Robinson: in addition to being hunted on D, he is a rotation scorer not a primary
5. Caleb Martin: Will need another deal with the devil.
What will Spo do? To me, he will double-down defensively on what they tried second half of game 1: dirtying up the D in terms of scheme and physicality, hope for more turnovers, and keep working to create one on one looks for Bam, Herro, Jaquez and hope they can deliver. I'm not sure what else he has? I guess they could do some more two-man games iwth Robinson to try and get spacing - they need more threes, too. But Celtics should (and in game 1 did) fry him defensively.
With Jimmy, Heat are underpowered offensively. Without him, you're left hoping for a lot to go right.
Bam is not very ball-secure. We started sending help at him when he got down low in the post, and we got one or two steals and fast-breaks out of it. He also will pick up his dribble at the first sign of trouble. There were one or two times he managed to hit a fadeaway jumper from ~10 feet over Porzingis - not an easy feat, surely - but we knew he was high percentage once he got there, and we sent swipers to do some swiping at the ball before he could really get his shot. It probably depended a bit on who was out there, can we live with them getting an open 3, etc, because Bam is a pretty good-vision passer. But yes, while he showed his agility advantage vs KP, we also had counters ready, I think.
Of the 10 he made, several were pretty difficult shots. I'll take their defensive performance against him (and Herro) every day of the week (and it will result in a sweep IMO).
Here are his 18 FGA. How many of these are great looks, like 3 or 4? They gave him a few wide open jumpers from like 19' or beyond, fine. Nearly everything was a turnaround / fadeaway from anything closer.
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042300101&PlayerID=1628389&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612748&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game
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Good analysis.
MIA got 24 from Bam on 18 shots,16 for Jaquez on 16 shots. They got an unexpected 17 from Wright. BOS basically stopped playing for four minutes and MIA still ended up with only 94. So maybe Herro throws up some more shots and gets 20 inefficient points. Some of that will be coming from Wright. Love went 3-4.
In a lot of ways, the game on the offensive side went as MIA wants and they still only scored 94.
I guess they have to hope Jovic becomes a 20 ppg scorer and they get one other non Herro, Bam, and Jaquez player the contribute. But that still only gets them to 110 or so they still have to hope for BOS to go cold offensively or give them a bunch of live ball TOs.
Tough series for MIA.
A rash of live ball TOs are the only way that I see Miami grabbing a win. They have the dual value of taking points away from BOS and giving easy buckets to MIA.