- Jul 18, 2005
In baseball, many analyzers have said that "record in blowouts" is a better indicator of a teams ability than "record in close games."The Celtics were 2-2 vs the Heat this year with Miami winning the last two games (something I expect to hear from Doris multiple times)
The 2 losses were of the tight variety:
G4 (Jan. 24) loss in Miami 98-95. 2nd night of a road back-to-back. Boston played without Horford, Smart & Brown (started JT/Pritchard/ White/TL/Grant). Miami played without Butler. Bam scored 30, but it was some G-Leaguer, Haywood Highsmith who went 4-4 from 3s that buried Boston in Q4 (when the Celtics scored 13pts).
G3 (Dec 2) loss at home 120-116 (OT) after Boston handled them by 13 a few nights earlier.
The one stat to keep an eye on for Boston against Miami is TURNOVERS
Obviously, live ball turnovers at the top that turn into runouts are the most detrimental play in the NBA. I'd avoid letting Brown run the offense from the top in the halfcourt. Miami will be waiting for that action and will send multiple ball hawks at JB to blow that action up. Let Marcus, Brogdon, White, and even less so Tatum get them into action. It's going to be a chess match with Spoelstra playing plenty of zone defense.
Have there been similar studies in the NBA?