Change of Address for Kevin Love - How About Causeway Street?

[bowiac]

For what it's worth, I've run some game based +/- stats before (i.e. what is the Timberwolves strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory with Kevin Love and without him), and he grades out well, but nothing "WOW" over his career. He's the rare player you can do this sort of analysis on, as he's missed so many games (which is a whole other issue).

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Yes Harden's defense is an issue. James Harden has never missed the playoffs however. Kevin Love has never made the playoffs. At some point, that starts to mean something...
 

 
At some point, thats definitely true. But is now really the point we should be comparing their team success?   Harden has played with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Dwight Howard. Love has played with Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Corey Brewer.  Love and Harden clearly have had very different starts to their career as far as team success, but a good amount of it is just the good fortune of Harden. 
 
Love is 25 years old, so I'm not sure he deserves to be lumped into the category of a guy who gets stats but doesn't help his team win just yet.  If his age 26-29 seasons look like his age 21-25 seasons, then I'll be on board.  But his sample size is still too small, and his teammates have been so bad, that I'd cut him some slack. 

 

[bowiac]

At some point, thats definitely true. But is now really the point we should be comparing their team success?   Harden has played with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Dwight Howard. Love has played with Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Corey Brewer.  Love and Harden clearly have had very different starts to their career as far as team success, but a good amount of it is just the good fortune of Harden. 

I agree with the basic point that Harden making the playoffs mostly can't be used in his favor. (Of course, in 2012-13, he didn't have Durant, Westbrook, or Howard, and still made the playoffs).
 
I disagree that Love never making the playoffs shouldn't be held against him however. He's six years in. Find me a single superstar since the merger (or maybe before?), who has gone this long without accomplishing that much.
 
To be clear however, I don't think he "doesn't help his team win" - I think he's a top 20 guy. But in the NBA, the difference between being the 13th best player in the league and the 6th (or whatever) is a big deal.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
To be clear however, I don't think he "doesn't help his team win" - I think he's a top 20 guy. But in the NBA, the difference between being the 13th best player in the league and the 6th (or whatever) is a big deal.

 
We probably don't disagree very much on Love actually, though I do think Love deserves somewhat of a break due to the combination of poor teammates, poor coaches, and a brutal conference.  Put him in the East over the past few years, even with a bad supporting cast, and I think we are talking about a couple of 2nd round exits, not someone who can't make the playoffs.
 
Either way, sounds like we disagree more on Harden (I wouldn't put him at #6 in the NBA with the way he defends), but that's a subject for another thread. 

 

[Devizier]

I would argue that Harden represents a larger vulnerability than Love simply on the basis of who he is asked to defend and what his responsibilities are. Yes, Love would be (and is ) asked to provide more help defense than a guard does, but on the other hand, Harden gets shaken by screens more easily than almost any player in the league. Moreover, Minnesota employs a near Harden-caliber defender in Kevin Martin, and no one would argue that Pekovic is any sort of defensive anchor, yet Minnesota has been middle of the road in defensive efficiency the last two seasons.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

 
We probably don't disagree very much on Love actually, though I do think Love deserves somewhat of a break due to the combination of poor teammates, poor coaches, and a brutal conference.  Put him in the East over the past few years, even with a bad supporting cast, and I think we are talking about a couple of 2nd round exits, not someone who can't make the playoffs.
 
Either way, sounds like we disagree more on Harden (I wouldn't put him at #6 in the NBA with the way he defends), but that's a subject for another thread. 

We went down this path last time but I'll die on this hill.  I am no Love apologist but if you look down the list of his teammates, its a veritable who's-who of absolute NBA dreck.  That includes this season (we already covered Rubio who is a destitute, non-blue-meth-addled, blind man's Rajon Rondo) where he played along such NBA luminaries as Chase Budinger (aka White Molé), the desiccated corpse of Corey Brewer and Alexey Shved.  I can go on but if you follow the NBA, you get the drift.  
 
I know someone will trot out the seasons where he and Jefferson overlapped but look at those rosters.  I mean, seriously, look at them.  Its almost too much to bear.  Things only recently improved for Mr. Love, but the problem is that the teams that he was competing against for a playoff spot got a lot better too (see Conference, Western over the past three or four years).   The point is, I am not sure LeBron or KD would do all that much better with the collection of NBA misfit-toys that Love had had to play alongside during his career.  I almost worry that he will be traumatized if he finds himself on a team with other viable options. 
 
In other news, the word out here in the Bay Area is that the Warriors might even be willing to part with Klay Thompson and David Lee (and perhaps even their 2015 first rounder) for Love.  Its a steep price to pay but for those who dismissed the value of a Barnes in this deal (foolish imho - the jury should still be out on a 22 year old Harrison Barnes), it certainly changes the viability of a Warriors package.  Say what you will about Lee but he and Thompson will immediately help a Minnesota team save some face with their fan base.

 

[Cellar-Door]

We went down this path last time but I'll die on this hill.  I am no Love apologist but if you look down the list of his teammates, its a veritable who's-who of absolute NBA dreck.  That includes this season (we already covered Rubio who is a destitute, non-blue-meth-addled, blind man's Rajon Rondo) where he played along such NBA luminaries as Chase Budinger (aka White Molé), the desiccated corpse of Corey Brewer and Alexey Shved.  I can go on but if you follow the NBA, you get the drift.  
 
I know someone will trot out the seasons where he and Jefferson overlapped but look at those rosters.  I mean, seriously, look at them.  Its almost too much to bear.  Things only recently improved for Mr. Love, but the problem is that the teams that he was competing against for a playoff spot got a lot better too (see Conference, Western over the past three or four years).   The point is, I am not sure LeBron or KD would do all that much better with the collection of NBA misfit-toys that Love had had to play alongside during his career.  I almost worry that he will be traumatized if he finds himself on a team with other viable options. 
 
In other news, the word out here in the Bay Area is that the Warriors might even be willing to part with Klay Thompson and David Lee (and perhaps even their 2015 first rounder) for Love.  Its a steep price to pay but for those who dismissed the value of a Barnes in this deal (foolish imho - the jury should still be out on a 22 year old Harrison Barnes), it certainly changes the viability of a Warriors package.  Say what you will about Lee but he and Thompson will immediately help a Minnesota team save some face with their fan base.

Mostly the problem has been at guard. Al Jefferson is a really good player, Pekovic is pretty good, they had some good SF at various times in Miller and Randolph. Rubio for all his terrible shooting is the best guard they have had.

 

[moly99]

I'm not sure where I would slot in on the "statistically inclined posters list", but I think I'd take Love over Harden.  I may be biased by recently seeing Harden roll over on D in the playoffs, but he really is a huge liability out there.  
 
I understand the logic of preferring a bad defensive guard  to a bad defensive big man, but Houston had Howard/Asik, and Harden's D was still a major issue. I know Love stinks on D too, but I'll take Love and his extra rebounding over Harden if I had to pick. 

 
Harden is a very good example, though, of what happens when you are playing 4 on 5 defense. As good as both of those guys are on offense, they give back a big chunk of what they contribute in the form of free points for the other team. If you had a problem with Harden's lack of defense, I'm not sure how that is a selling point for Love.
 

I think that's where the argument ends. On the defense, I'd take minor issue -- Love is bad but not as bad as Harden -- he tries but is limited.
 

 
He doesn't try. He would rather let guys take a shot without trying to contest it so he has a chance of grabbing the rebound if they miss. That's why so many of his coaches dogged him early in his career, and why Coach K didn't want to give him minutes early in his career with the US national team.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Mostly the problem has been at guard. Al Jefferson is a really good player, Pekovic is pretty good, they had some good SF at various times in Miller and Randolph. Rubio for all his terrible shooting is the best guard they have had.

 
Brad Miller?  The guy who was retired but didn't let the Timberwolves in on it because they were willing to pay him for one more year?  And Anthony Randolph?  I will grant you that he was somewhat useful during his time in Minnesota but I wouldn't refer to him as good unless we are talking about the ability to keep the bench warm.  They were both more C or PFs than SFs too (i.e. they were likely to spell Love rather than complement him).  
 
But your point that he has lacked a guard is absolutely valid.  I would also argue that, at various points in his time as  a T-Wolf, he also lacked four other teammates with anything resembling NBA skills too.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Brad Miller?  The guy who was retired but didn't let the Timberwolves in on it because they were willing to pay him for one more year?  And Anthony Randolph?  I will grant you that he was somewhat useful during his time in Minnesota but I wouldn't refer to him as good unless we are talking about the ability to keep the bench warm.  They were both more C or PFs than SFs too (i.e. they were likely to spell Love rather than complement him).  
 
But your point that he has lacked a guard is absolutely valid.  I would also argue that, at various points in his time as  a T-Wolf, he also lacked four other teammates with anything resembling NBA skills too.

Mike Miller before his back exploded, who was quite good. Of course with nobody to pass to him he had the worst year of his career in MIN.

 

[Montana Fan]

Vanilla Thunder.  And color me as one who agrees that if Ainge moves on Love it will be a series of moves, not just that single trade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_l_5Nz0Tg-E
 

 

[E5 Yaz]

The funniest thing I've read in this entire thread is the concept wanting to clear cap space to make a splash in the 2015 FA class. Even offering max contracts, what legit FA is going to Minnesota ... AFTER Love is gone?

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Harden is a very good example, though, of what happens when you are playing 4 on 5 defense. As good as both of those guys are on offense, they give back a big chunk of what they contribute in the form of free points for the other team. If you had a problem with Harden's lack of defense, I'm not sure how that is a selling point for Love.
 

 
Never said D was any kind of selling point for Love.  It's definitely a knock on his overall game, and why I said I don't think I disagree with bowiac that much on Love. The main disagreement would be that Harden, with his D, is a top 6 player in the NBA.  
 
I was mostly making a point about Harden that I think takes him out of the top 10 player in the NBA status. That's why I would probably rather have Love.

 

[radsoxfan]

Mostly the problem has been at guard. Al Jefferson is a really good player, Pekovic is pretty good, they had some good SF at various times in Miller and Randolph. Rubio for all his terrible shooting is the best guard they have had.

 
But even the good big men he has played with have been horrendous fits for Love's game.  Slow, plodding, poor defenders are the worst possible bigs to pair with him.  And as you said, the guards have been atrocious. 

 

[radsoxfan]

Its a steep price to pay but for those who dismissed the value of a Barnes in this deal (foolish imho - the jury should still be out on a 22 year old Harrison Barnes), it certainly changes the viability of a Warriors package.  

 
You have obviously seen much more of the Warriors than I have, so I respect your opinion on Barnes.  But I don't see it all when I have watched him, and the numbers bear that out.  
 
He is young, but Jeff Green was young once too.  I think that's an optimistic projection for Barnes.  Certainly don't see him taking a huge leap given what I saw last year, but maybe somehow Mark Jackson was holding him back. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

We went down this path last time but I'll die on this hill.  I am no Love apologist but if you look down the list of his teammates, its a veritable who's-who of absolute NBA dreck.  That includes this season (we already covered Rubio who is a destitute, non-blue-meth-addled, blind man's Rajon Rondo) where he played along such NBA luminaries as Chase Budinger (aka White Molé), the desiccated corpse of Corey Brewer and Alexey Shved.  I can go on but if you follow the NBA, you get the drift.  
 
I know someone will trot out the seasons where he and Jefferson overlapped but look at those rosters.  I mean, seriously, look at them.  Its almost too much to bear.  Things only recently improved for Mr. Love, but the problem is that the teams that he was competing against for a playoff spot got a lot better too (see Conference, Western over the past three or four years).   The point is, I am not sure LeBron or KD would do all that much better with the collection of NBA misfit-toys that Love had had to play alongside during his career.  I almost worry that he will be traumatized if he finds himself on a team with other viable options.

 
LeBron had some really bad teams; here's a list:  http://bullscharge.weebly.com/special-how-good-were-lebrons-teammates.html.  Generally speaking, supporting cast is about the same.  I realize no one is comparing KL to LBJ.
 
My problem with Kevin Love was mentioned in the Grantland article posted above - his teams seemingly have had a problem in close games down the stretch.  A good portion of this is because KL can't guard anyone. 
 
I think it's pretty unlikely that you can win a championship with Kevin Love as your best player so unless the price were right, I'd pass.
 
P.S.  For those who have forgotten, here's the previous KL thread with more statistical information:  http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/81841-ivans-kevin-love-fantasy/page-2?hl=+kevin +love

 

[moondog80]

I think it's pretty unlikely that you can win a championship with Kevin Love as your best player so unless the price were right, I'd pass.
 

Kevin Love is better than anyone on the Spurs.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

Kevin Love is better than anyone on the Spurs.

 
Or Pacers.

 

[bowiac]

Kevin Love is better than anyone on the Spurs.

The Spurs are obviously a freakshow, but if they win a title, there's a very good chance that that's because Kawhi Leonard is the player people thought Paul George was at the start of the year. (I think he is).
 
To be clear on Harden, the defense is major problem for him too, but the Rockets had a very good season in spite of it. It's also a problem that I think is easier to deal with than terrible interior defense (it's easier to find a guy to help out on the perimeter, i.e. Tony Allen, Thabo Sefalosha, Jimmy Butler, than it is to find the interior defense version of those guys).

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Vanilla Thunder flying
Janitor crying
Earth shaking, glass breaking
Wham!  Bam!  He is jam.

 

[ivanvamp]

Every NBA team seems to have a guy in the front court that can't really score.  Is it that difficult to just put Love on that guy?  I know they will still find ways to expose him because the game isn't that simple, but Larry Bird was not a good on-ball defender either (which is why McHale always played the best scoring forward, whether it was a power forward like Worthy or a small forward like Dominique).  I'm not saying Love = Bird, don't get me wrong.  But unless the other team has 5 legit scorers, there seems to be a way to kind of hide a bad defender like Love.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Every NBA team seems to have a guy in the front court that can't really score.  Is it that difficult to just put Love on that guy?  I know they will still find ways to expose him because the game isn't that simple, but Larry Bird was not a good on-ball defender either (which is why McHale always played the best scoring forward, whether it was a power forward like Worthy or a small forward like Dominique).  I'm not saying Love = Bird, don't get me wrong.  But unless the other team has 5 legit scorers, there seems to be a way to kind of hide a bad defender like Love.

 
I, personally, think the critiques of Love's defense have gotten a bit out of hand. He's certainly not a good defender, and he has some bad habits, and a tendency to get lazy from time to time, but he's perfectly capable of being a completely average defensive player in the NBA. He'll never be a difference maker on that end, but he's not a guy that's so terrible you need to hide him. More than anything, Love's defensive issues are related to effort, and the right coach and system should be able to solve a lot of that. He's obviously never going to be an elite rim protector either, but couple him with the right 5, and that's not a huge issue, particularly in a league that's going small and values stretch 4s.

 

[Tony C]

I agree w that assessment of his D -- "bad" covers a range, Love is bad in the sense if mediocre but can be hidden against most teams. Harden is bad as in a liability that may be an Achilles heel for the Rockets.

 

[bowiac]

I agree w that assessment of his D -- "bad" covers a range, Love is bad in the sense if mediocre but can be hidden against most teams. Harden is bad as in a liability that may be an Achilles heel for the Rockets.

Yeah, this is where we disagree. I think Harden's defensive issues are less of a problem than Love's because of their differing defensive roles (and I point to Love's "uniqueness" in NBA history as evidence). I'm not really speaking to GMB's point that a better coach might be able to convince him to play harder however. (Of course, I bet that applies to Harden too).

 

[Curtis Pride]

I don't know how much stock people put in Win Shares in comparing players, but BB-Ref has Kevin Love 3rd in WS, behind Kevin Durant and LeBron James. In a hypothetical scenario where Celtics do get Love in a trade and somehow convince him to re-sign there, I think the Celtics can build around him with a defensive big and a solid two-way PG. Unfortunately I don't think Rondo would be a good fit for Love because he gambles defensively and needs a slashing shot-creator to to take the pressure off him.
 
But Golden State would be a great fit for Love. With Andrew Bogut manning the middle, Love and Stephen Curry could present some serious matchup problems for some teams. They might not be great defensively, but teams might have to score 130 points to beat them. That would be a fun team to watch.

 

[Devizier]

Aside from Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul, who you fill out your "top ten" or even your "top twenty" is almost entirely arbitrary.

 

[Swedgin]

I don't know how much stock people put in Win Shares in comparing players, but BB-Ref has Kevin Love 3rd in WS, behind Kevin Durant and LeBron James. In a hypothetical scenario where Celtics do get Love in a trade and somehow convince him to re-sign there, I think the Celtics can build around him with a defensive big and a solid two-way PG. Unfortunately I don't think Rondo would be a good fit for Love because he gambles defensively and needs a slashing shot-creator to to take the pressure off him.
 
But Golden State would be a great fit for Love. With Andrew Bogut manning the middle, Love and Stephen Curry could present some serious matchup problems for some teams. They might not be great defensively, but teams might have to score 130 points to beat them. That would be a fun team to watch.

FWIW, he is also in the top 10 in ESPN's real plus/minus.   
 
I think he actually makes it easier to keep Rondo because his shooting and hence spacing offset Rondo's lack thereof.
 
With regard to his lack of playoff success, the only thing it shows is that he is not on the Lebron, KD (and maybe Chris Paul) plane.   While superstars matter more in the NBA then in other sports it still is a team game.  There are very few (like 2 or 3) players in the league at any one time who can drag a team into the playoffs by themselves.   If you are talking about a team in today's Western Conference, that number might even be zero.   Situation matters  - teammates matter, coaches matter and scheme matters.   While the most vivid examples are with role players (Gerald Green and DJ Augustin say hi), it applies to super stars as well.   Look no farther than our most recent big 3.   KG missed the playoffs in his last three years in MN.   Only one of Ray's Seattle teams made the playoffs.   

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Kevin Love is better than anyone on the Spurs.

 
 

 
Or Pacers.

 
As for the Spurs, not if you consider salary, and as for the Pacers, I'd probably rather have Paul George.  YMMV. 

 

[wutang112878]

Maybe we can look at Love's defense issue a little differently.  We can probably all agree that he is a great rebounder, and defense (however good or bad he is) is not one of his strengths.  Why try to put a square peg in a round hole?  Perhaps Love's defensive issue could be hidden on a up-tempo, fast break team which would highlight his ability to rebound which could start the break and possibly his ability to hit 3s as a trailing player on the break.
 
Now, through this lens lets think about Rondo.  Rondo is amazingly fast but in his tenure here we have never had a fast break, up-tempo team for him to run, but this is the style that highlights his speed which is by far his best skill.
 
I have a feeling in a Nellie ball style of team Rondo and Love could be greater than the sum of their parts and some warts really could be hidden.  The question becomes how to fill out the rest of the roster so your opponent isnt scoring 140 (perhaps with a purely 100% defensive center) and you can score in the half-court (perhaps with a poor-mans Paul Pierce who can operate in isolation). 
 
The other related question that comes up is could a up-tempo team with minimal focus on defense win a title?

 

[bowiac]

With regard to his lack of playoff success, the only thing it shows is that he is not on the Lebron, KD (and maybe Chris Paul) plane.   While superstars matter more in the NBA then in other sports it still is a team game.  There are very few (like 2 or 3) players in the league at any one time who can drag a team into the playoffs by themselves.   If you are talking about a team in today's Western Conference, that number might even be zero.   Situation matters  - teammates matter, coaches matter and scheme matters.   While the most vivid examples are with role players (Gerald Green and DJ Augustin say hi), it applies to super stars as well.   Look no farther than our most recent big 3.   KG missed the playoffs in his last three years in MN.   Only one of Ray's Seattle teams made the playoffs.   

It's a team game, but as discussed, Kevin Love is completely unprecedented. Guys ranked 4-10 miss the playoffs some years. They don't miss every season. At least not historically. Kevin Garnett made the playoffs 14 years in his 17 seasons. There's a big difference between that and 0 for 6. Ray Allen went 4 times in 11 seasons, but I don't know if I think Allen is a step above Love regardless.

 

[bowiac]

I don't know how much stock people put in Win Shares in comparing players, but BB-Ref has Kevin Love 3rd in WS, behind Kevin Durant and LeBron James. In a hypothetical scenario where Celtics do get Love in a trade and somehow convince him to re-sign there, I think the Celtics can build around him with a defensive big and a solid two-way PG. Unfortunately I don't think Rondo would be a good fit for Love because he gambles defensively and needs a slashing shot-creator to to take the pressure off him.

I think win shares is a surprisingly good stat for comparing players (not the best, but surprisingly good), and that's the source of the "discontinuity" I keep talking about with Love. Love ranks 3rd in win shares this year. The highest ranked guy who didn't make the playoffs besides Love? Anthony at 13.
 
2012-13, Love was hurt, you need to reach down to Al Jefferson at #28 to find someone who didn't make the playoffs.
 
In 2011-12, Love ranked 4th. Other than him, you need to reach down to Marcin Gortat at #18 to find someone who didn't make it.
 
In 2010-11, Love ranked 9th. Other than him, you need to reach down to Blake Griffin #20 to find someone who didn't make it.
 
In 2009-10, Love was hurt, you need to reach down to David Lee at #13 to find someone who didn't make it.
 
In 2008-09, Love was a rookie, but you to go down to Chris Bosh at #16 to find someone who didn't make the playoffs.
 
Basically, other than Kevin Love, who is a dominant advanced metrics guy every healthy year since his rookie year, you won't find anyone not making the playoffs who ranks in the top 10. Their average rank is 17th.
 
Make of that what you will. I don't think there's anything definitive there, and I still think he's a good player, but that's what I mean by discontinuity.

 

[wutang112878]

Do you have the win-shares in a database/spreadsheet?  (If I didnt have real work to do I would do this myself)
 
It would be interesting to see the win shares for a teams best player and then next 4 players.  So for example Love had 14.3 win shares and the next 4 highest win shares on the team were Rubio 5.9, Pekovic 5.9, Martin 5.3 and Brewer 5.2   Compare that to the Clips with Griffin at 12.2 who has Paul at 12.2, DeAndre Jordan at 11.1, Collison at 5.9 and Crawford at 5.3.  Or take a somewhat comparable situation in Chicago where Noah has 11.2 with Butler at 7.1, Dunleavy 6.5, Augustin at 6.4 and Taj Gibson at 5.9   So Noahs worst starting helper was actually just as good as Love's best

 

[Cellar-Door]

I hate win shares with a passion.
Defensive win shares are so out of touch with reality as to be infuriating.
I'm not crazy about offensive win shares either as it greatly benefits guys who score a high percentage of their team's points, particularly guys on bad teams.

 

[wutang112878]

Dont you think that being that offensive guy is pretty hard though?  Being a half way decent offensive player on a team with nothing around you is really challenging because opposing defenses want to stop you at absolutely all costs when your teammates are that bad.  If you are in that scenario and you are facing double teams all the time and you still score a ton, yeah I think thats notable.

 

[bowiac]

I have such a spreadsheet, sure (BB-ref is easily exportable to CSV). But there are other examples. Nobody on Brooklyn had more than 5.4 win shares this year. Korver was 2nd on the Hawks with 5.9 win shares. Charlotte is in a similar boat too.
 
More broadly, win shares is a bad stat for this. Team results are a major factor in determining win shares. That's why you'll sometimes see two players with very similar stats but very different win shares numbers. It's because their team results are influencing the number of available "shares".

 

[bowiac]

I'm not crazy about offensive win shares either as it greatly benefits guys who score a high percentage of their team's points, particularly guys on bad teams.

I'm not even sure this is true. Win shares gives a lot of weight to efficiency, so shooting a lot at low efficiency hurts you. Furthermore, as I mentioned, team results are a major factor (moreso on the defensive side), so being on a bad team hurts them too.
 
I'm happy to mount a defense of win shares relative to other readily available metrics. There are other good ones that are harder to find, but it's the best of PER, wins produced, or the other big ones you see referenced.
 

Defensive win shares are so out of touch with reality as to be infuriating.

Can you give some examples here? One of the reasons I like win shares is because it mostly follows the 80/20 rule of plausibility (80% of your results should confirm conventional wisdom). This year was admittedly strange, because the Pacers defense was so good that almost everyone playing for them graded out amazing. But last year, the best defenders were Paul George, Marc Gasol, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley, Joakim Noah, LeBron James and Zach Randolph. That's not too far from conventional wisdom, is it?

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I have such a spreadsheet, sure (BB-ref is easily exportable to CSV). But there are other examples. Nobody on Brooklyn had more than 5.4 win shares this year. Korver was 2nd on the Hawks with 5.9 win shares. Charlotte is in a similar boat too.
 
More broadly, win shares is a bad stat for this. Team results are a major factor in determining win shares. That's why you'll sometimes see two players with very similar stats but very different win shares numbers. It's because their team results are influencing the number of available "shares".

 
I agree with what you're saying about win shares in this context, but just because it's an easy metric to look at and digest, here are the guys Love's played with in the last 5 years who have been above league average (.100) in WS/48 (and focused on Love's healthy years):
 
This season: Pekovic (.169), Dieng (.129), Turiaf (.122), Martin (.117), and Rubio (.107)
2011-2012: Pekovic (.129)
2010-2011: Anthony Tolliver (.115)
 
That's the whole list. I agree that it's unprecedented that he hasn't made the playoffs. I've looked for a comp for a while and haven't been able to find one. But I'm also not sure if there's a precedent for a superstar player having such terrible teammates.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
 
Can you give some examples here? One of the reasons I like win shares is because it mostly follows the 80/20 rule of plausibility (80% of your results should confirm conventional wisdom). This year was admittedly strange, because the Pacers defense was so good that almost everyone playing for them graded out amazing. But last year, the best defenders were Paul George, Marc Gasol, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley, Joakim Noah, LeBron James and Zach Randolph. That's not too far from conventional wisdom, is it?

I won't argue on offensive, but defensive:
 
Al Jefferson was 7th in the league in defensive win shares.
Stephen Curry was 19th
DeAndre Jordan was 3rd
Kevin Love was in the top 30.
Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard had 2 DWS each.
 
Jefferson and Jordan have long been considered poor defenders, Irving, Lillard and Love are considered among the worst defenders in the league.
 
Basically Defensive win shares are highly based on Defensive Rating, which has major flaws, most notably... (from basketball reference's own explanation of defensive rating) "individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute" So even extremely poor defenders get credit for a lot of their teammates work.

 

[bowiac]

I mostly don't disagree with that approach, although I agree there are some weird results this year. Defense is hard to gauge - giving some credit for team defensive results seems like a reasonable hedge against the limits of available defensive box score stats.
 
Put another way, what else are you going to do.

 

[Tony C]

 
 
Jefferson and Jordan have long been considered poor defenders, ....

 
 
Jordan was 3rd in the league in defensive MVP voting, and 8 voters had him in 1st place. Granted he improved a lot this year, but I don't think he was ever considered poor except on this Board when he was being offered to the Celtics.....
 
In any case, I suppose that speaks to the larger difficulty of defining how good/bad a guy is on defense.
 
Bottom line for me is have to agree to disagree on whether or not Love's defense makes him a less than elite player. I'll grant he's not great and there is a certain subjectivity, but Love will be a catch for whomever acquires him. I think too much is being made of the lack of playoff appearances.

 

[bowiac]

Bottom line for me is have to agree to disagree on whether or not Love's defense makes him a less than elite player. I'll grant he's not great and there is a certain subjectivity, but Love will be a catch for whomever acquires him. I think too much is being made of the lack of playoff appearances.

I'm fine with the agree to disagree idea notion- I don't feel especially strongly here.
 
I do want to note that it's not just a playoff thing. His career winning percentage is also flabbergastingly bad. The playoff thing was just an easy for proxy for recalculating the Timberwolves winning % when he plays. To take a particularly egregious example, his 2010-2011 season, the Timberwolves won 17 games, i.e. two fewer games than this year's 76ers did.

 

[Statman]

 
BOSTON — One of the early hurdles the Boston Celtics had to overcome in acquiring Kevin Garnett in 2007, was convincing him to want to come to Boston.

That, according to Comcast SportsNet basketball analyst Tim Welsh, doesn't appear to be an issue when it comes to a potential trade for Minnesota's Kevin Love who reportedly does not plan to sign an extension with the Timberwolves.

A source close to Love told Welsh that the three-time All-star, "wants to play for an organization that's going to be a winning organization; not necessarily I have to go to a championship team now, but a team that's going to be built to move in that direction. Maybe it'll take a couple years. That's OK. But he needs a change from Minnesota."
 
....
 
He respects (Celtics president of basketball operations) Danny Ainge," Welsh said. "He's already built it once. If he (Ainge) can sell him, 'here's the plan for the future,' he's open to it."

 
http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/source-love-would-come-celtics
 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

So, how does getting #6 affect us in the Love sweepstakes? Doesnt look like any other contenders for Love got a higher pick. Do people want him now more then the #6?

 

[Cellar-Door]

So, how does getting #6 affect us in the Love sweepstakes? Doesnt look like any other contenders for Love got a higher pick. Do people want him now more then the #6?

No different to me.
I think getting into the top 3 would have made a trade for Love less likely.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So, how does getting #6 affect us in the Love sweepstakes? Doesnt look like any other contenders for Love got a higher pick. Do people want him now more then the #6?

Here's the thing.....Minnesota doesn't HAVE to trade Love this summer. It would have been much more attractive to dangle the prospect of Wiggins/Embiid/Parker than it is Vonleh/Smart/Gordon. To be a player for Love now you're going to be dipping into some future picks with more limited protection to even get in the conversation.

Being at 6 kills our leverage in providing a high profile draft pick who they can market from Day One.

 

[Brickowski]

Here's the thing.....Minnesota doesn't HAVE to trade Love this summer.

Sure they do. He's a wasting asset who is worth more now than he will be after the season starts.

 

[Statman]

Here's the thing.....Minnesota doesn't HAVE to trade Love this summer.

They have to trade him this summer if they want a shot at drafting a player from this years draft. They can always move him before the trade deadline, but they won't have their choice of selecting from this years class and they likely get less for him because any trade partner is going to lose a half season of his services.

They can't trade him next summer because he is likely going to use his early termination option after next season to make himself an UFA.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Sure they do. He's a wasting asset who is worth more now than he will be after the season starts.

I agree they would want to move him at the draft even if Taylor is adamant they won't. To say we weren't just dealt a major blow in what it would take to acquire him is dead wrong. They aren't going to give him away for #6 and Sully, that isn't even in the conversation.......they could have for #3 and Sully.

It's going to take a lot more now to get it done. Minnesota could be much better off with his services for this season then gaining a return as Love's representatives negotiate a sign-n-trade than Vonleh, Gordon or Smart as the centerpiece to a trade now.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I agree they would want to move him at the draft even if Taylor is adamant they won't. To say we weren't just dealt a major blow in what it would take to acquire him is dead wrong. They aren't going to give him away for #6 and Sully, that isn't even in the conversation.......they could have for #3 and Sully.

It's going to take a lot more now to get it done.

They'd have to dip into the future 1's now at the least.

 

[knucklecup]

It's hard to speculate until you see what direction other teams are going in.

Cleveland, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Utah, and then Boston. We're kind of the most desirable location of those spots ahead of us. Not that the Lakers have much else to offer but it's at least fortunate to be ahead of them.

I don't think Cleveland trades the pick. If they do, that's where Love will end up.

I don't see him resigning long term in Milwaukee, Orlando, or Utah.

Philly makes sense but I feel like they've had a plan developing for the last couple years, particularly in drafting Noel, that they'll try to stick to. It's not often that you have a similarly aged, similarly priced, young core that can develop together. Does Love make sense in Philadelphia?

I'm excited about the prospects of acquiring Love.